EXCL Revenue Rose 23%, but the Merger Supplied 84% of the Growth

A Merger Year: Revenue Up, EBITDA Flat, a Net Loss

XLSmart's revenue rose 23.4% in 2025, but 84% of the increase came from buying Smartfren, which added a Rp1,189 billion loss while EBITDA stayed flat.

PT XLSMART Telecom Sejahtera Tbk (EXCL), formerly PT XL Axiata Tbk, merged with PT Smartfren Telecom Tbk and PT Smart Telecom on April 16, 2025, so FY2025 includes Smartfren and FY2024 does not. The pre-merger business grew only a few percent (a derived estimate, below). EBITDA^» was flat against the prior year, and the year ended in a net loss that comes from depreciation and a write-down, not from cash. The sections below show how much of each figure is the merger and how much the underlying business, and what the cash did next.

Smartfren Supplied 84% of the Revenue Growth

Revenue of Rp42,446 billion is up 23.4% in rupiah and 18.8% in US dollars (Rp16,709 per US$1 at December 31, 2025, against Rp16,085.6 a year earlier). The merger accounts for Rp6,740 billion of the Rp8,054 billion increase, or 83.7%. Take it out and revenue was about Rp35,706 billion, up Rp1,314 billion or 3.8%. That figure is this post's own estimate, built by subtracting the Smartfren contribution the notes disclose; the company does not publish an organic growth rate.

Smartfren was consolidated for about 8.5 months of 2025 (from April 16), so FY2025 is a part-year of the combined business and FY2024 contains none of it. On a pro forma basis, as if the combination had been complete for the whole year, the notes show revenue of Rp45,012 billion. The notes give Smartfren's revenue and loss since April 16 but no EBITDA, so how much of the flat EBITDA is Smartfren's is not disclosed. This post covers FY2025, an earlier period than the Q1 and Q2 2026 posts, which compare the fully merged company against pre-merger quarters.

The Loss Is Depreciation and a Write-Down, Not Cash

EBITDA fell 0.6% to Rp17,781 billion (US$1,064 million, down 4.3%), and the margin dropped from 52.0% to 41.9% of revenue; the company itself rounds it to 42%. Below EBITDA, depreciation rose 45.6% to Rp17,586 billion, so depreciation and amortization took 42.4% of revenue against 35.7% a year earlier. Operating income swung from a Rp5,758 billion profit to a Rp1,139 billion loss (US$-68 million against US$358 million). Of that, Rp1,089 billion is a write-down of the Link Net stake (see Beyond the Usual); without it the operating loss would be about Rp49 billion (derived). Finance costs rose to Rp4,016 billion from Rp3,113 billion, the pre-tax loss reached Rp5,263 billion, and a Rp849 billion tax benefit (16.1% of the pre-tax loss) left the Rp4,425 billion net loss to owners (US$-265 million, against a US$113 million profit).

Salaries and benefits rose 146.9% to Rp4,286 billion (this post's reading: two workforces combined, which the filing does not state in these terms), and "Others", which includes the Link Net write-down, rose from Rp230 billion to Rp1,056 billion.

Cash Left Through Leases and Dividends

Operating cash flow was Rp17,501 billion and capex^» Rp9,304 billion, so free cash flow^» was Rp8,198 billion (US$491 million), down 1.7% from Rp8,337 billion. The cash flow statement then shows Rp5,336 billion of lease principal and Rp2,566 billion of lease interest, Rp7,902 billion together, which leaves about Rp296 billion after lease payments (derived). Dividends paid were Rp4,014 billion. The company's own headline free cash flow is Rp6.59 trillion; the annual report does not state its basis, so this post uses operating cash flow less capex throughout.

The Prescription

XLSmart should publish what the merger is delivering at the profit line, not only at the cost line. Management reports US$252 million of synergies in 2025 (see Beyond the Usual), and the next step is to show how much of that reaches EBITDA, because reported EBITDA did not move while depreciation rose Rp5.5 trillion.

It should stop treating the dividend as fixed while the cash is not there. Dividends of Rp4,014 billion were paid against a Rp4,425 billion loss and about Rp296 billion of free cash flow after lease payments (derived), in a year when the company also took on net new long-term borrowing of Rp5,492 billion.

Key Financial Metrics

FX: Rp16,709 = US$1 (December 31, 2025) and Rp16,085.6 (December 31, 2024), used only to convert the US$ columns.

*The YoY figures here compare FY2025, which includes Smartfren from April 16, 2025, with a FY2024 that does not. None is like-for-like. EBITDA is revenue less operating expenses before depreciation and amortization, as the annual report's financial highlights present it (revenue of Rp42,446 billion less operating expenses of Rp24,665 billion); the company's separate "normalized" figure is covered below.

Why the figures moved: Revenue grew because Smartfren's Rp6,740 billion is in the year. EBITDA stayed flat because costs grew as fast as revenue: infrastructure costs rose 37.9% and interconnection costs 49.5%, on top of the 146.9% rise in salaries. Operating income and net income turned negative because depreciation rose Rp5,511 billion, the Link Net write-down added Rp1,089 billion and finance costs rose Rp903 billion. Free cash flow barely moved because operating cash flow absorbed the extra costs and capex rose to Rp9,304 billion. Cash nearly doubled; the cash flow statement shows net new long-term borrowing of Rp5,492 billion and the Rp1,871 billion Moratel proceeds covered in Beyond the Usual.

Key Operational Metrics

Arrow = the way the number moved against the year-earlier period; green = good for the business, red = bad, grey = flat.

• Customers: 73.0 million at year-end, against 58.8 million (+24.1%); the filing does not split the increase, but the merger is the obvious source (this post's inference).
• Data traffic: 14,566 petabytes against 10,547 (+38.1%).
• Base stations (BTS): 225,649 against 165,864 (+36.0%).
• ARPU:^» blended mobile ARPU of Rp39,500; the annual report describes ARPU as "remaining flat at around Rp34,000-Rp40,000" and gives no 2024 comparison, so no arrow is shown.
• Employees: 3,703 against 2,159 (+71.5%).
• Return on equity: -15.6% against 7.0%.
• EBIT margin: (0.5)% against 16.2%.
• Current ratio: 47.2% against 40.1%.
• Earnings per share: Rp(276) against Rp139.
• Capex: Rp11.2 trillion, against a company target of about Rp10 trillion and Rp7.38 trillion in 2024.
• Net debt^» to EBITDA: 3.38x, as the annual report states it; no prior figure is given.

Segment Comparison

XLSmart reports two segments: GSM mobile and telecommunications network services and managed service and information technology services, plus eliminations.

The mobile business carries the whole loss; the small managed-service segment made Rp6 billion. The segment note shows no unallocated line: the three rows sum to the Rp(4,414) billion loss for the year, and the Rp11 billion difference to the Rp(4,425) billion attributable to owners is the non-controlling share (derived).

Beyond the Usual

Dividends of Rp4.0 Trillion Were Paid Against a Rp4.4 Trillion Loss

The cash flow statement shows dividends paid of Rp4,014 billion, equal to 90.7% of the Rp4,425 billion net loss, in a year when free cash flow after lease payments was about Rp296 billion (derived). The same statement shows long-term loan proceeds of Rp9,057 billion against repayments of Rp3,565 billion, a net Rp5,492 billion of new borrowing. The filing does not link the two. This post's reading is that borrowing covered a payout the year's cash did not. The stated dividend policy^{[»](/glossary/#dividend-payout-ratio)} is a distribution of at least 30% of the previous year's normalized net profit, so the 2025 payment follows 2024's profit, not 2025's loss. The company also bought back Rp2,440 billion of its own shares and sold Rp2,737 billion during the year.

The Link Net Stake Was Written Down 59%, and the Associate's Debt Moved to Short-Term

XLSmart owns 20% of PT Link Net Tbk, a fixed broadband operator, accounted for under the equity method^{[»](/glossary/#equity-method)}. The carrying value fell from Rp2,343 billion to Rp951 billion after a Rp1,089 billion impairment, equal to 2.6% of revenue, on a discounted cash flow valuation at a 10.5% discount rate. The stake's market value at year-end was Rp2,240 billion, above the written-down carrying value. Link Net's own current liabilities rose from Rp4,050 billion to Rp9,593 billion while its non-current liabilities fell from Rp4,861 billion to Rp95 billion, which means debt moved from long-term to due within a year. The note does not say why.

Rp3.66 Trillion of Deferred Tax Assets Depend on a Tax Office Decision

Deferred tax assets stood at Rp3,658 billion, of which Rp3,339 billion is a merger fair-value component. The notes say the deferred tax asset recognized on the 2025 combination, Rp3,428 billion, is provisional, as is the goodwill of Rp6,430 billion, pending the tax office's approval to use tax book values. If approval is refused or profits do not arrive, the asset and goodwill would change.

Merger Synergies Came in Above the Target Range

Management reports synergies of US$252 million in 2025 against a target of US$150-200 million. The annual report also gives a normalized EBITDA of Rp20.1 trillion, up 13%, which strips out merger-related costs. That is the company's own non-GAAP figure; reported EBITDA, which this post uses, was flat. The gap between Rp17.8 trillion and Rp20.1 trillion, about Rp2.3 trillion (derived), is what management excludes as merger-related costs.

The Moratel Stake Was Sold at Fair Value

In December 2025 the company disposed of its 18.32% stake in Moratel at fair value for Rp1,871 billion, recorded as an investing inflow. It turned a minority holding into cash; year-end cash was Rp2,666 billion, up from Rp1,387 billion.

Cash Nearly Doubled to Rp2.7 Trillion

Cash and cash equivalents rose 92.3% to Rp2,666 billion (US$160 million). Gross debt excluding leases is Rp23,662 billion, 1.33x EBITDA; including leases it is Rp62,827 billion, 3.53x, in line with the annual report's own 1.3x and 3.5x.

Target Valuation Range

Verdict: the market is paying far more than last year's multiple for flat EBITDA. At a Rp3,750 close XLSmart trades at 7.22x EV/EBITDA^» including leases (5.02x excluding them), from 4.15x (2.27x) a year earlier, because the share price rose 66.7% while EBITDA did not move. Against Telkom's 5.34x (leases included) and Indosat's about 3.20x (leases excluded) it is dearer than both peers, compared on the debt basis their posts use.

Market-cap and enterprise-value buildup (18.20 billion shares at December 31, 2025, and 13.13 billion issued shares at December 31, 2024; non-controlling interest of Rp174 billion is ignored):

Multiples (full-year FY2025 revenue and EBITDA; EV/EBITDA and EV/Revenue^» use the period-end enterprise value):

FY2025 includes only about 8.5 months of Smartfren while the year-end share count and debt include the whole of Smartfren, so these trailing multiples overstate the price of the combined business. On the company's normalized EBITDA of Rp20.1 trillion the multiples are 6.39x including leases and 4.44x excluding; on pro forma revenue of Rp45,012 billion, EV/Revenue is 2.85x and 1.98x. P/E is not meaningful given the loss. The FY2024 market capitalization uses issued shares; treasury shares are not deducted.

Peer check (peers on the debt basis their own posts use):

On either basis XLSmart's multiple is above both peers, but not by the same gap: about 1.6x Indosat's multiple with leases out, about 1.4x Telkom's with leases in. Some of the premium is the partial-year effect described above; some is leverage, since XLSmart's lease-inclusive debt is 3.53x EBITDA.

The Rp3,750 close prices a company whose reported EBITDA was flat, whose profit was negative and whose payout exceeded its cash after leases. What it needs to show over the next year is that the Rp20.1 trillion normalized figure and the US$252 million of synergies turn into reported EBITDA, and that the dividend can be paid from operations.