Recursive Gains Logo

Recursive Gains

Discover the signals that matter. At Recursive Gains, we break down businesses from first principles, track red flags, and compound clarity — not confusion.

Latest Articles

Q2 2026 · IDX · Sep 29, 2026

BBRI Indonesia's Sovereign Wealth Fund Now Owns Half of BRI. Its Stock Just Hit a Fresh Low.

BRI's standalone Q2 2026 net income attributable to owners grew approximately 21.5% YoY to Rp15,372,692 million as loan growth hit 16.16% YoY - nearly double the top of BRI Group's original 2026 guidance band, prompting an upward revision that still trails actual growth - even as bank-only capital adequacy fell for a third straight period to 19.35%. A new ownership disclosure shows Indonesia's sovereign wealth fund, Danantara, now holds roughly 52.66% of BRI's shares, yet the stock still closed the quarter at Rp2,730, a fresh two-year low.

Q2 2026 · PRIVATE · Sep 29, 2026

SEABANK SeaBank's Profit Growth Just Stalled - After Five Straight Quarters of Acceleration

SeaBank Indonesia's H1 2026 net income rose 250.4% year-on-year to Rp749.3 billion - but isolate the second quarter alone and it's essentially flat versus Q1, breaking a run of five straight quarters of sequential growth. The loan-to-deposit ratio hit an all-time high of 95.23% the same quarter capital adequacy hit an all-time low of 20.20%, and the fastest-growing deposit line is still the one the FY2025 annual report showed was 82% Sea Group related-party money.

Q2 2026 · NYSE · Sep 29, 2026

BABA Net Income Fell 75%, But the Company's Own Preferred Profit Number Fell Only 30%

Alibaba's first quarter of fiscal 2027 (the calendar quarter ended June 30, 2026) shows revenue up 9% to RMB268,953 million ($39,639 million) and Cloud revenue growth accelerating to 45%, but GAAP net income collapsed 75% to RMB10,444 million ($1,539 million) on a goodwill impairment and an EU regulatory fine provision that the company's own preferred non-GAAP metric, Adjusted EBITA, excludes almost entirely. The same quarter, Alibaba scrapped its three-year-old segment structure for a new one built around AI, and free cash flow swung further negative funding a 75% jump in capital expenditure.

Q2 2026 · XETRA · Aug 30, 2026

DHER Delivery Hero Just Agreed to Sell Itself to Uber - Did H1 2026's Numbers Even Matter?

H1 2026 revenue grew 12.7% to €7.75 billion and actual free cash flow turned positive at €304.7 million, the cleanest half Delivery Hero has posted in years. But sixteen days after the reporting period closed, the company agreed to sell itself to Uber for €41.50 per share - a €13.0 billion equity value struck at barely more than the operating improvement itself would justify - while the Glovo Spain going-concern warning and a new Milan prosecutor's investigation into rider conditions remain unresolved.

NASDAQ · Aug 17, 2026

GRAB Grab's $600M Bet on the One Deal Uber Couldn't Get Past Taiwan's Regulator

Grab is paying $600 million cash for foodpanda's Taiwan business - its first market outside Southeast Asia in eight years, and a country where Uber already tried and failed to buy the exact same asset. Taiwan's regulator blocked Uber's $950 million bid in 2024 over a near-monopoly; now it's reviewing Grab's smaller deal too, because Uber itself owns roughly 13% of Grab.

IDX · Aug 17, 2026

GOTO GoTo Beats Grab in Indonesia by 48% — Except Where It Can't Even Compare

GoTo is Indonesia - On-Demand Services, Fintech, and E-Commerce all in one Indonesia-only P&L - while Indonesia is only Grab's third-largest market by revenue. Comparing the two inside Indonesia specifically is lopsided by design: GoTo discloses a full segment P&L for the country it operates in, while Grab discloses only Indonesia's revenue line, once a year, with no cost, margin, or profit breakdown attached to it at all.

Q2 2026 · IDX · Aug 16, 2026

BIRD Revenue Grew 11% - So Why Did a Dividend Payout Push Debt-to-Equity Above 0.60x?

Blue Bird's Q2 2026 net revenue rose 11.04% YoY to Rp1,519.20 billion, but net income attributable to owners fell 2.93% to Rp165.07 billion as operating income dropped 13.17%. Free cash flow's shortfall narrowed sharply to -Rp87.91 billion from -Rp201.99 billion a year ago, but a larger AGM cash dividend (Rp166/share, up from Rp120) drained equity 3.92% quarter-on-quarter, pushing debt-to-equity to ~0.62x.