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Recursive Gains

Discover the signals that matter. At Recursive Gains, we break down businesses from first principles, track red flags, and compound clarity — not confusion.

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Q3 2026 · NASDAQ · Nov 6, 2026

CHYM Net Income Rose, Free Cash Flow Fell - and It Still Bought a Bank

Chime beat the growth and profitability guidance it gave investors in August - revenue grew 32% to $718 million against a guided 25-27%, and Adjusted EBITDA hit a record $137.3 million against a guided $105-110 million. In the same quarter it spent its buyback budget on something bigger instead: a $590 million all-cash deal, signed September 8, to buy Stride Bank outright and become a bank holding company for the first time.

Q3 2026 · IDX · Nov 5, 2026

BIRD Operating Income Rose 8% - So Why Did Net Income Grow Just 1%?

PT Blue Bird Tbk's Q3 2026 standalone net revenue rose 10.32% YoY to Rp1,599.13 billion and operating income rose 8.27% to Rp163.69 billion, but net income attributable to owners grew just 1.30% to Rp149.07 billion as finance charges rose 40.66% YoY and the effective tax rate climbed. Debt-to-equity fell back below where it sat before Q2 2026's dividend-driven spike, to the company's own disclosed ~0.52x from ~0.62x, even as the quarter's capex of Rp668.10 billion was the heaviest of the year and cash fell by more than half sequentially.

Q3 2026 · NYSE · Nov 5, 2026

UBER Three More Takeovers Closed the Same Quarter It Borrowed $5 Billion

Uber's Q3 2026 10-Q shows revenue up 10% to $14,766 million and Gross Bookings up 20% to $59,819 million, both within guidance, with GAAP operating income up 30% to $1,447 million and Non-GAAP EPS of $0.88 at guidance's top. But the balance sheet moved more: a EUR4.5 billion bond sale, a repaid short-term loan, three completed acquisitions, a launched EUR41.50-per-share takeover offer for Delivery Hero, and a disclosed GBP2.6 billion UK tax dispute, most of it already paid.

Q3 2026 · NASDAQ · Nov 4, 2026

PAYP Two Beats in a Row, but the Guide Implies the Margin Falls Back

In the three months to September 30, 2026, PayPay's revenue came in 1.8% above the top of its guided range and its Adjusted EBITDA 6.5% above the top of its range, against beats of 4.6% and 15.1% a quarter earlier. The raised full-year range implies an Adjusted EBITDA margin of about 33% for the second half, down from about 35% in the first.

Q3 2026 · NYSE · Nov 4, 2026

CPNG Sales Kept Growing, Profit Collapsed, and the Stock Hit a Two-Year Low

Coupang's sales grew 7.5% (11% at constant currency) in Q3 2026, but Adjusted EBITDA fell 72% to $116 million, and the operating line was a $202 million loss even before counting the $248 million Incheon fire. Free cash flow over the last twelve months is negative $409 million, $1.1 billion has gone to buybacks this year, and the stock closed at a two-year low.

Q3 2026 · NASDAQ · Nov 4, 2026

GRAB Every Core Segment Turned Profitable, and Stock Hit a Two-Year Low Anyway

All three of Grab's core segments turned Segment Adjusted EBITDA-profitable for the first time this quarter, and guidance was raised for the second time in 2026. Profit for the period rose just $1 million, as a $47 million larger fair-value loss and a new $12 million impairment erased nearly all of the $81 million operating-profit gain, and the stock fell to a fresh two-year low.

Q3 2026 · IDX · Nov 3, 2026

SUPA Profit Rose 12% in the Quarter. Credit-Impaired Loans Rose 41%.

Superbank's third quarter profit rose 12.3% on the second to Rp117.3 billion, but gross loans grew only 2.7%, the retail and UMKM book shrank 3.4%, and credit-impaired (stage 3) loans rose 41.4% to Rp324.7 billion. The stock closed September at Rp496, down 7.3% on the quarter and 21.9% below its Rp635 IPO price, at about 2.0x book and 42x annualized earnings.

Q3 2026 · IDX · Nov 2, 2026

ANTM Nickel Now Earns 63% of Segment Profit on Just 19% of Revenue

ANTAM's nine months to September 2026 show revenue up 22.8% to Rp88,481 billion and net profit to owners up 47.9% to Rp8,838 billion, with nickel now supplying 63% of the three operating segments' combined profit on just 19% of revenue - 76.7% of it in the third quarter alone, up from 44.3% in the first quarter. Operating cash flow swung from negative in the first half to a Rp5,812 billion third-quarter inflow as gold inventory was drawn down, and a Supreme Court judicial-review verdict on a long-running refining lawsuit arrived on September 7, 2026 with its financial impact not yet assessed.

Q3 2026 · IDX · Nov 1, 2026

GOTO Its Stock Was Stuck at a Floor for Months. The Floor Just Broke

GoTo posted a third consecutive quarterly net profit, Rp441 billion, and real operating income stayed positive for a third straight quarter even as the newly imposed 8% GoRide commission cap took its first full-quarter bite. The stock, pinned at Indonesia's Rp50 trading floor since May, fell to Rp32 the moment that floor was lifted two days before quarter-end - cutting GoTo's enterprise value by nearly 40% on price discovery alone, not a change in the business.