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Recursive Gains

Discover the signals that matter. At Recursive Gains, we break down businesses from first principles, track red flags, and compound clarity — not confusion.

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Q3 2026 · IDX · Nov 8, 2026

AMRT Why Won't the Filing Explain the Family's Sudden 11-Point Stake Drop?

PT Sumber Alfaria Trijaya Tbk's 9M 2026 financial statements show net revenue up 7.21%, but the quarter standing alone tells a different story: revenue grew while operating income fell 13.52% and net income fell 12.40%, as costs outgrew the business. The bigger surprise sits in the share-ownership table: the controlling shareholder's stake fell to 38.90% from 50.19% as a newly-appeared holder took 14.04%, with no explanation anywhere in the filing.

Q3 2026 · NASDAQ · Nov 8, 2026

MELI The Credit Card Book Isn't the Problem. The Consumer Loans Are.

MercadoLibre's Q3 2026 10-Q shows net revenue crossing $10.75 billion (+45.1% reported, +40.8% FX-neutral) but operating margin falling for a third straight quarter to 6.3%, with credit-quality deterioration concentrated in Consumer loans, not the faster-growing credit-card book. Two loan-quality ratios "roughly flat" as recently as FY2025 have now moved for two quarters running, and the Brazil-Argentina tax dispute's new legal strategy already lost its first ruling, with tax exposure growing to $768 million from $622 million.

Q3 2026 · IDX · Nov 8, 2026

DNET Net Income Fell 22%. FiberStar's Own Profit Turned Negative.

PT Indoritel Makmur Internasional's nine-month 2026 net income fell 22.2% year-over-year as associate profit fell 12.5% and MAP, its consolidated fiber-optic subsidiary (FiberStar), swung from a pre-tax profit to a pre-tax loss - not shown in the headline operating-income line. The Company also fully drew a new Rp2 trillion unsecured loan and, within days, placed nearly all of it into a new private fund, while the market's implied Indomaret valuation stayed close to the high the H1 2026 post found.

Q3 2026 · NASDAQ · Nov 8, 2026

LYFT A Six-Year-Old Lawsuit Settlement Just Erased the Quarter's Profit

Lyft's Q3 2026 10-Q reports record Active Riders, Rides and Gross Bookings, with Adjusted EBITDA up 46.8% to $203.9 million. But GAAP operating income and net income both swung to losses, almost entirely because of a $117.9 million charge tied to a newly disclosed $272.5 million settlement of a six-year-old California driver-misclassification lawsuit that is still awaiting court approval.

Q3 2026 · NASDAQ · Nov 6, 2026

CHYM Net Income Rose, Free Cash Flow Fell - and It Still Bought a Bank

Chime beat the growth and profitability guidance it gave investors in August - revenue grew 32% to $718 million against a guided 25-27%, and Adjusted EBITDA hit a record $137.3 million against a guided $105-110 million. In the same quarter it spent its buyback budget on something bigger instead: a $590 million all-cash deal, signed September 8, to buy Stride Bank outright and become a bank holding company for the first time.

Q3 2026 · IDX · Nov 5, 2026

BIRD Operating Income Rose 8% - So Why Did Net Income Grow Just 1%?

PT Blue Bird Tbk's Q3 2026 standalone net revenue rose 10.32% YoY to Rp1,599.13 billion and operating income rose 8.27% to Rp163.69 billion, but net income attributable to owners grew just 1.30% to Rp149.07 billion as finance charges rose 40.66% YoY and the effective tax rate climbed. Debt-to-equity fell back below where it sat before Q2 2026's dividend-driven spike, to the company's own disclosed ~0.52x from ~0.62x, even as the quarter's capex of Rp668.10 billion was the heaviest of the year and cash fell by more than half sequentially.

Q3 2026 · NYSE · Nov 5, 2026

UBER Three More Takeovers Closed the Same Quarter It Borrowed $5 Billion

Uber's Q3 2026 10-Q shows revenue up 10% to $14,766 million and Gross Bookings up 20% to $59,819 million, both within guidance, with GAAP operating income up 30% to $1,447 million and Non-GAAP EPS of $0.88 at guidance's top. But the balance sheet moved more: a EUR4.5 billion bond sale, a repaid short-term loan, three completed acquisitions, a launched EUR41.50-per-share takeover offer for Delivery Hero, and a disclosed GBP2.6 billion UK tax dispute, most of it already paid.

Q3 2026 · NASDAQ · Nov 4, 2026

PAYP Two Beats in a Row, but the Guide Implies the Margin Falls Back

In the three months to September 30, 2026, PayPay's revenue came in 1.8% above the top of its guided range and its Adjusted EBITDA 6.5% above the top of its range, against beats of 4.6% and 15.1% a quarter earlier. The raised full-year range implies an Adjusted EBITDA margin of about 33% for the second half, down from about 35% in the first.

Q3 2026 · NYSE · Nov 4, 2026

CPNG Sales Kept Growing, Profit Collapsed, and the Stock Hit a Two-Year Low

Coupang's sales grew 7.5% (11% at constant currency) in Q3 2026, but Adjusted EBITDA fell 72% to $116 million, and the operating line was a $202 million loss even before counting the $248 million Incheon fire. Free cash flow over the last twelve months is negative $409 million, $1.1 billion has gone to buybacks this year, and the stock closed at a two-year low.