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Discover the signals that matter. At Recursive Gains, we break down businesses from first principles, track red flags, and compound clarity — not confusion.

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Q3 2026 · IDX · Nov 5, 2026

BIRD Operating Income Rose 8% - So Why Did Net Income Grow Just 1%?

PT Blue Bird Tbk's Q3 2026 standalone net revenue rose 10.32% YoY to Rp1,599.13 billion and operating income rose 8.27% to Rp163.69 billion, but net income attributable to owners grew just 1.30% to Rp149.07 billion as finance charges rose 40.66% YoY and the effective tax rate climbed. Debt-to-equity fell back below where it sat before Q2 2026's dividend-driven spike, to the company's own disclosed ~0.52x from ~0.62x, even as the quarter's capex of Rp668.10 billion was the heaviest of the year and cash fell by more than half sequentially.

Q3 2026 · NYSE · Nov 5, 2026

UBER Three More Takeovers Closed the Same Quarter It Borrowed $5 Billion

Uber's Q3 2026 10-Q shows revenue up 10% to $14,766 million and Gross Bookings up 20% to $59,819 million, both within guidance, with GAAP operating income up 30% to $1,447 million and Non-GAAP EPS of $0.88 at guidance's top. But the balance sheet moved more: a EUR4.5 billion bond sale, a repaid short-term loan, three completed acquisitions, a launched EUR41.50-per-share takeover offer for Delivery Hero, and a disclosed GBP2.6 billion UK tax dispute, most of it already paid.

Q3 2026 · NASDAQ · Nov 4, 2026

PAYP Two Beats in a Row, but the Guide Implies the Margin Falls Back

In the three months to September 30, 2026, PayPay's revenue came in 1.8% above the top of its guided range and its Adjusted EBITDA 6.5% above the top of its range, against beats of 4.6% and 15.1% a quarter earlier. The raised full-year range implies an Adjusted EBITDA margin of about 33% for the second half, down from about 35% in the first.

Q3 2026 · NYSE · Nov 4, 2026

CPNG Sales Kept Growing, Profit Collapsed, and the Stock Hit a Two-Year Low

Coupang's sales grew 7.5% (11% at constant currency) in Q3 2026, but Adjusted EBITDA fell 72% to $116 million, and the operating line was a $202 million loss even before counting the $248 million Incheon fire. Free cash flow over the last twelve months is negative $409 million, $1.1 billion has gone to buybacks this year, and the stock closed at a two-year low.

Q3 2026 · NASDAQ · Nov 4, 2026

GRAB Every Core Segment Turned Profitable, and Stock Hit a Two-Year Low Anyway

All three of Grab's core segments turned Segment Adjusted EBITDA-profitable for the first time this quarter, and guidance was raised for the second time in 2026. Profit for the period rose just $1 million, as a $47 million larger fair-value loss and a new $12 million impairment erased nearly all of the $81 million operating-profit gain, and the stock fell to a fresh two-year low.

Q3 2026 · IDX · Nov 3, 2026

SUPA Profit Rose 12% in the Quarter. Credit-Impaired Loans Rose 41%.

Superbank's third quarter profit rose 12.3% on the second to Rp117.3 billion, but gross loans grew only 2.7%, the retail and UMKM book shrank 3.4%, and credit-impaired (stage 3) loans rose 41.4% to Rp324.7 billion. The stock closed September at Rp496, down 7.3% on the quarter and 21.9% below its Rp635 IPO price, at about 2.0x book and 42x annualized earnings.

Q3 2026 · IDX · Nov 2, 2026

ANTM Nickel Now Earns 63% of Segment Profit on Just 19% of Revenue

ANTAM's nine months to September 2026 show revenue up 22.8% to Rp88,481 billion and net profit to owners up 47.9% to Rp8,838 billion, with nickel now supplying 63% of the three operating segments' combined profit on just 19% of revenue - 76.7% of it in the third quarter alone, up from 44.3% in the first quarter. Operating cash flow swung from negative in the first half to a Rp5,812 billion third-quarter inflow as gold inventory was drawn down, and a Supreme Court judicial-review verdict on a long-running refining lawsuit arrived on September 7, 2026 with its financial impact not yet assessed.

Q3 2026 · IDX · Nov 1, 2026

GOTO Its Stock Was Stuck at a Floor for Months. The Floor Just Broke

GoTo posted a third consecutive quarterly net profit, Rp441 billion, and real operating income stayed positive for a third straight quarter even as the newly imposed 8% GoRide commission cap took its first full-quarter bite. The stock, pinned at Indonesia's Rp50 trading floor since May, fell to Rp32 the moment that floor was lifted two days before quarter-end - cutting GoTo's enterprise value by nearly 40% on price discovery alone, not a change in the business.

Q3 2026 · IDX · Oct 31, 2026

TLKM A Tax Objection Just Failed, Risking Nearly 4 Times This Quarter's Profit

Telkom Indonesia's Q3 2026 standalone operating profit fell to Rp7,866 billion - down 15.2% from the year-ago quarter - but the segment-level business was only down 6.7%; most of the rest is a Rp1,328 billion quarterly markdown on Telkomsel's stake in GoTo and other startup investments, as GoTo's own share price fell from Rp50 to Rp32 within the quarter. Separately and more consequentially, the tax authority rejected Telkomsel's objection to a combined Rp14,467 billion assessment over the 2023 IndiHome business transfer - a bill bigger than this quarter's own net income - sending it toward a Tax Court appeal, while the unrelated TIF fiber-spin-off tax dispute also became formal litigation three weeks after the quarter closed.

Q3 2026 · IDX · Oct 31, 2026

ISAT Profit Jumped 37% as a Capex Surge Turned Cash Flow Negative

Indosat Ooredoo Hutchison's 9M 2026 revenue grew 11.1% YoY to Rp45,750.2 billion and net income attributable to owners grew 37.2% to Rp4,921.8 billion, but operating cash flow fell 9.7% and capital spending jumped 68.6%, swinging free cash flow from +Rp5,442.0 billion a year ago to -Rp3,142.0 billion this period. The buildout behind it - infrastructure under construction nearly sixfolded - is being funded by a new US-dollar bank loan, a 30.9% rise in finance lease liabilities and a 131.3% jump in unpaid project payables, not operating cash.