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Recursive Gains

Discover the signals that matter. At Recursive Gains, we break down businesses from first principles, track red flags, and compound clarity — not confusion.

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Q3 2026 · IDX · Nov 2, 2026

ANTM Nickel Now Earns 63% of Segment Profit on Just 19% of Revenue

ANTAM's nine months to September 2026 show revenue up 22.8% to Rp88,481 billion and net profit to owners up 47.9% to Rp8,838 billion, with nickel now supplying 63% of the three operating segments' combined profit on just 19% of revenue - 76.7% of it in the third quarter alone, up from 44.3% in the first quarter. Operating cash flow swung from negative in the first half to a Rp5,812 billion third-quarter inflow as gold inventory was drawn down, and a Supreme Court judicial-review verdict on a long-running refining lawsuit arrived on September 7, 2026 with its financial impact not yet assessed.

Q3 2026 · IDX · Nov 1, 2026

GOTO Its Stock Was Stuck at a Floor for Months. The Floor Just Broke

GoTo posted a third consecutive quarterly net profit, Rp441 billion, and real operating income stayed positive for a third straight quarter even as the newly imposed 8% GoRide commission cap took its first full-quarter bite. The stock, pinned at Indonesia's Rp50 trading floor since May, fell to Rp32 the moment that floor was lifted two days before quarter-end - cutting GoTo's enterprise value by nearly 40% on price discovery alone, not a change in the business.

Q3 2026 · IDX · Oct 31, 2026

TLKM A Tax Objection Just Failed, Risking Nearly 4 Times This Quarter's Profit

Telkom Indonesia's Q3 2026 standalone operating profit fell to Rp7,866 billion - down 15.2% from the year-ago quarter - but the segment-level business was only down 6.7%; most of the rest is a Rp1,328 billion quarterly markdown on Telkomsel's stake in GoTo and other startup investments, as GoTo's own share price fell from Rp50 to Rp32 within the quarter. Separately and more consequentially, the tax authority rejected Telkomsel's objection to a combined Rp14,467 billion assessment over the 2023 IndiHome business transfer - a bill bigger than this quarter's own net income - sending it toward a Tax Court appeal, while the unrelated TIF fiber-spin-off tax dispute also became formal litigation three weeks after the quarter closed.

Q3 2026 · IDX · Oct 31, 2026

ISAT Profit Jumped 37% as a Capex Surge Turned Cash Flow Negative

Indosat Ooredoo Hutchison's 9M 2026 revenue grew 11.1% YoY to Rp45,750.2 billion and net income attributable to owners grew 37.2% to Rp4,921.8 billion, but operating cash flow fell 9.7% and capital spending jumped 68.6%, swinging free cash flow from +Rp5,442.0 billion a year ago to -Rp3,142.0 billion this period. The buildout behind it - infrastructure under construction nearly sixfolded - is being funded by a new US-dollar bank loan, a 30.9% rise in finance lease liabilities and a 131.3% jump in unpaid project payables, not operating cash.

Q3 2026 · NYSE · Oct 30, 2026

DASH Record Profit, Then $17 Billion for Instacart and a Buyback That Stopped

DoorDash's Q3 2026 earnings press release shows new quarterly records for revenue ($4,616M, +34% YoY), Adjusted EBITDA ($1,060M, +41% YoY) and net income ($466M, +91% YoY), with operating income nearly tripling quarter over quarter on falling opex. The same release announced a roughly $17 billion deal to acquire Instacart, financed mostly by cash and debt, and showed DoorDash spent nothing on its own buyback between July 1 and October 28, 2026, after spending $887 million in Q2.

Q3 2026 · IDX · Oct 29, 2026

ARTO Profit Up 50%, Stock Down 18% Again: What Is Thinning Underneath?

Bank Jago's 9M 2026 net income rose 49.7% YoY to Rp298,078 million, a seventh straight quarter of QoQ standalone profit growth. The stock closed the quarter at Rp795, down 17.6% QoQ to ~1.21x book, while CAR fell a seventh straight quarter to 27.54%, loans-at-risk reached 8.7%, and the related-party share of the Sharia financing book dropped from 91.46% to 46.50%.

Q3 2026 · IDX · Oct 29, 2026

BMRI Profit Growth Slowed Sharply This Quarter as the Capital Crunch Eased

Bank Mandiri's Q3 2026 standalone net income grew 13.91% year-on-year, decelerating sharply from Q2's 33.48% pace, as net revenue fell a further 15.02% year-on-year standalone amid a second straight quarter distorted by PT Bank Syariah Indonesia's February 2026 deconsolidation. But capital adequacy ratios, which had fallen sharply in Q2, recovered this quarter, and a previously-flagged pending sale of an asset-management subsidiary to Danantara finally closed.

Q3 2026 · IDX · Oct 28, 2026

BBCA Margin Pressure Eased, and a Multi-Quarter Stock Slide Finally Broke

BCA's 9M 2026 net profit attributable to owners grew 4.2% year-over-year to Rp45.2 trillion, but the growth was almost entirely a third-quarter story: standalone profit, flat year-over-year in Q2, jumped 9.0% in Q3 as bank-only net interest margin recovered to 5.6% from Q2's 5.3%, even as loan growth (12.6% YoY) kept outpacing deposits (8.0% YoY) and pushed the loan-to-deposit ratio to a fresh high of 79.8%. The stock rose 9.5% quarter-over-quarter to Rp6,075, even as a widening set of tax disputes and a shifting mix inside the restructured loan book both surfaced as fresh footnote-level concerns.