ANTM Is a 34% Profit Jump Real When Operating Cash Flow Is Negative?

Nickel Led H1 2026 Profit, Gold Led the Half Before, and the Cash Sits in Inventory

PT ANTAM (Persero) Tbk (ANTAM, IDX: ANTM) is the Indonesian state-controlled miner that is 65% owned by MIND ID, the government's mining holding company, with the remaining 35% held by the public and a single special-rights "Dwiwarna" share^» held by the Government. For the first half of 2026 (the six months to June 30, 2026) it reported revenue of Rp62,714 billion, up 6.3%, operating profit of Rp8,443 billion, up 37.6%, and net profit of Rp6,913 billion, up 34.4%.

ANTAM reports cumulative figures, so the June quarter in this post is the half-year less the March quarter; the post draws on four documents: the June 2026 statements, the March 2026 statements, the March-quarter investor presentation and the 2025 annual report. On that basis June-quarter revenue rose only 1.6% year on year and operating profit rose 14.3%, and operating profit fell 12.5% from the March quarter even though revenue rose 13.9%.

Is the profit real? In the accounting sense yes, in the cash sense not yet. Operating cash flow for the half was negative Rp752 billion against Rp6.9 trillion of profit, alongside a doubling of gold and silver inventory, from Rp5,297 billion at the end of 2025 to Rp12,154 billion (19.8% of total assets). The cash has not gone missing: it sits in metal that has to be sold at or above cost (see Profit Came With Negative Operating Cash).

Which business earns the profit depends on the period. In H1 2026 nickel produced 57% of the three operating segments' combined operating profit on 17% of revenue, at a 51.6% margin, and precious metals and refinery (the gold business) 39% on 80% of revenue at 7.2%. But nickel's share was 49.7% in H1 2025, 20.9% in H2 2025 (profit Rp913 billion after a Rp951 billion impairment) and 45.8% over the trailing twelve months, against 49.5% for precious metals. In the June quarter that segment's profit fell 53% from March to Rp1,161 billion (margin 4.4%) while nickel's rose 47% to Rp3,197 billion (see Segment Comparison).

ANTM closed June at Rp2,590, 40.5% below its highest month-end close of the previous two years (Rp4,350 in February 2026) and 17.8% below the 2025 year-end close. That is 7.0 times trailing earnings and 4.25 times trailing EBITDA^» on the likelier reading that the close was already ex the Rp5,046 billion dividend paid on July 10, or 3.85 times if it was not (the 2026 ex-date is not in the filings; see Target Valuation Range). Two items weigh against the discount: lawsuits over gold-bar deliveries and a refining contract, with claims of about Rp3.2 trillion against a Rp133 billion legal-cases provision and the usual detail withheld, and that dividend (see Beyond the Usual).

The Prescription

ANTAM should treat nickel as the segment to grow and gold as a volume-dependent refining business whose supply it should secure. Gold sold swung from 15.6 tonnes in the June 2025 quarter to 4.8 and 3.3 tonnes in the next two quarters and 8.5 tonnes in March 2026 (company presentation), while ANTAM's own mines produced 743 kilograms of the 37,365 kilograms it sold in 2025, about 2%. The annual report says that as gold demand increased, ANTAM met challenges in securing raw material supply, driven by limited domestic availability of gold raw material and a force majeure event affecting one of its key suppliers, which disrupted supply continuity. That paragraph gives no date or quarter and names no supplier; the report's board-meeting table lists an item dated October 9, 2025 on domestic sourcing and PT Freeport Indonesia's post-force-majeure sales strategy. This post does not assume the supplier in the force majeure sentence is Freeport; the agenda item makes that a possibility, not a statement. The June statements record the rules on bullion trading and gold-bar imports effective August 1, 2025 (note 38r) without linking them to volumes, and none of the four documents ties either to the September and December 2025 volumes.

The annual report also describes arrangements already in place: offtake agreements with several domestic mining partners; a Gold Sales and Purchase Agreement (GSPA) with PT Freeport Indonesia and a member of the Merdeka Group holding company; a minimum of 30 tonnes a year of gold supply from Freeport, tied to the Gresik precious-metals plant (about 30 tonnes a year of capacity, commissioning targeted for the fourth quarter of 2027); and a GSPA with the Merdeka Group for 6 tonnes a year. It sets 2026 targets of 837 kilograms of own gold output and 40,837 kilograms of sales, after reaching 77% and 93% of the 2025 targets. No document gives the prices, start dates or terms of these agreements. What stays open is the 41% of H1 2026 purchases of precious metals that came from ABC Refinery, for which no arrangement is described; whether the Freeport minimum is firm before the Gresik plant opens in 2027; and whether sales of 40,837 kilograms, about 10.2 tonnes a quarter, fit March 2026's 8.5 tonnes. Closing those three gaps would address the supply constraint the company itself reports. If nickel growth and the HPAL^» stake compete for the same cash, the order should be gold supply and owned gold output first, nickel mine and smelter growth that ANTAM controls second, and the 30% stake in a US$1.9 billion nickel project last, because its final investment decision is listed in the company's own presentation as under review.

What ANTAM should stop doing: leaving a segment margin that ran from 18.4% to 4.4% across three periods unexplained, on Rp12 trillion of gold and silver stock. The financial-risk note says the group has no financial instruments whose value is directly linked to future global commodity price movements; inventory is not a financial instrument, and the filing says nothing about other offsets, though customers' advances for precious metals stand at Rp1,158 billion (note 22). The filings attribute the margin swing to no cause; they mention the August 2025 bullion rules and the April 2025 royalty rates without linking either to it. ANTAM should say how much of the segment's profit is refining and how much is stock held through a price move.

Key Financial Metrics

H1 2026 (six months ended Jun 30, 2026) vs H1 2025, consolidated

FX: Rp17,935 = US$1 (Jun 30, 2026) and Rp16,230 = US$1 (Jun 30, 2025) - month-end market quotes, used only to convert the US$ columns, because ANTAM reports in rupiah. The rupiah weakened 10.5% between those dates, so US$ growth trails rupiah growth. The interim statements are reviewed by the auditor, not audited; the June 2025 comparatives were reviewed by a different audit firm.

Because ANTAM's cash-flow statement is built from receipts and payments, with no depreciation line, EBITDA here is operating profit plus depreciation and amortisation from the segment note (Rp538 billion, against Rp614 billion a year ago) plus impairment of fixed assets (none this half; Rp133 billion in the first half of 2025). ANTAM's own investor presentation shows EBITDA of Rp5,051 billion for the March quarter without defining it, against Rp4,790 billion on this measure, and its annual report gives Rp10.51 trillion for 2025 against Rp10.71 trillion here; on a trailing basis to March 2026 the two agree within 1% (Rp12,286 billion against Rp12,380 billion), but they differ by quarter, so only this measure is used. Free cash flow is operating cash flow less cash spent on fixed assets, exploration and evaluation assets, intangibles and mining properties (Rp304 billion this half, Rp329 billion a year ago).

The June quarter, derived as the half-year less the March quarter, shows the shape of the half:

Why each moved. Revenue grew 6.3% only because the non-gold lines grew: nickel ore +28.3% to Rp8,606 billion, ferronickel^» +55.9%, bauxite ore +59.8%, against gold, 80% of revenue, up 1.2% to Rp50,127 billion. Operating profit grew six times faster than revenue because gross margin widened to 17.3% from 14.0% (nickel's profit share rose, and the first half of 2025 carried a Rp133 billion nickel-asset impairment); royalties were a drag, up 63.8% to Rp1,554 billion, and operating expenses rose 14.7%. The royalty rise is not price alone: Government Regulation 19/2025, effective April 26, 2025, replaced the earlier regulation with rates of 14% to 19% of sales price for nickel ore, 7% to 16% for gold, 5% for silver, 7% for bauxite and 4% to 6% for ferronickel (note 38h), so the H1 2025 base carried the new rates for only about two of its six months. Net profit grew a little slower than operating profit: finance costs jumped to Rp347 billion from Rp40 billion (Rp202 billion of bank interest on a loan book that was about Rp250 billion a year earlier), a Rp300 billion foreign-exchange gain replaced one of Rp90 million, profit from associates more than doubled to Rp395 billion, the effective tax rate rose to 23.2% from 21.3%, and minority shareholders took Rp524 billion, or 7.6% of profit. Cash fell 12.2% year on year alongside the inventory build; the Rp4,902 billion dividend declared and still unpaid at June 30 had not yet left it. Bank loans stood at Rp5,740 billion on June 30, Rp8,443 billion on March 31 and, derived from the annual report (nil at December 2024) and the June 2025 cash-flow column (Rp250 billion drawn), about Rp250 billion a year earlier.

The quarterly series the four documents allow is six quarters (the statements go back to the March 2025 quarter; the September and December 2025 quarters come from the company's March-quarter presentation, rounded to Rp billion):

Across the four 2025 quarters revenue moved with the tonnes of gold sold; March 2026 is the exception, with volume down 38% and revenue up 12% year on year as the price rose 72%. The second half of 2025 (full-year less first-half figures) had operating profit of Rp2,257 billion on revenue of Rp25,623 billion, a margin of 8.8%, and included Rp951 billion of the Rp1,084 billion nickel-asset impairment booked for 2025; without it that half's margin would have been 12.5%. The June 2026 quarter's operating margin of 11.8% sits below the March quarter's 15.4% and above the 10.4% of the first half of 2025. Eight quarters cannot be shown: the statements carry no earlier quarterly split, and the annual figures for 2024 (revenue Rp69,192 billion, operating profit Rp2,998 billion, net profit Rp3,852 billion) give only the full year. No seasonal pattern is claimed; the swings above line up with gold volumes and prices, not with any calendar pattern the filings describe.

Key Operational Metrics

ANTAM's June filing is a set of financial statements and gives no sales volumes. The only volume and price data in the four documents are in the March-quarter presentation, so the volume comparison below is March 2026 against March 2025, and the June quarter is shown through revenue by product.

(wmt is wet metric tonnes, the unit for ore; kt Ni is thousand tonnes of contained nickel.) Revenue grew in the March quarter because prices rose faster than volumes fell: gold sales volume was 38% lower at a 72% higher price, nickel ore volume 10.5% lower at a 46% higher price. Own gold output was 2.4% of the gold sold in the quarter.

Gold revenue fell 6.1% year on year in the June quarter after rising 10.6% year on year in the March quarter; sequentially it rose 9.8% (Rp26,235 billion against Rp23,892 billion). The statements give no June-quarter volume or price, so whether the year-on-year fall is volume or price cannot be told from them.

Segment Comparison

ANTAM reports three operating segments, Nickel (nickel ore and ferronickel), Precious metals and refinery (gold, silver and refining services) and Bauxite and alumina, plus unallocated head-office costs and a small "Others" line. The company's Board uses net sales to assess them.

(Segment shares are of the three operating segments' profit, before head office and Others; June-quarter segment figures are the half-year less the March-quarter statement's segment note.)

Because the split moves with the period, the same three segments over the halves the documents allow (H2 2025 is full-year 2025 less H1 2025; trailing twelve months is FY2025 less H1 2025 plus H1 2026):

H2 2025 nickel profit was Rp1,864 billion and 26.7% of revenue before the Rp951 billion impairment booked in that half. Any statement that nickel "carries" the profit is therefore true of H1 2026 and, on a trailing basis, of neither segment alone.

Nickel: H1 2026 profit up 58% after a weak H2 2025

Nickel revenue was Rp10,415 billion (+32.4%) and operating profit Rp5,374 billion (+58.0%), which supplied Rp1,973 billion of the Rp2,524 billion rise in the three segments' operating profit (78%). In the June quarter revenue was Rp5,947 billion (+44.9% year on year, +33.1% on the March quarter) and operating profit Rp3,197 billion at a 53.8% margin. The March-quarter presentation shows part of why: nickel ore sold at US$66.8 per wet tonne against US$45.8, on 10.5% less volume. Royalties rose with it (group royalties Rp1,554 billion, up 63.8%, Rp890 billion of it in the June quarter against Rp664 billion in March), but not because of price alone: the royalty rates in Government Regulation 19/2025, 14% to 19% of the sales price for nickel ore, took effect on April 26, 2025, so the H1 2025 base had only about two months at them. ANTAM's nickel, ferronickel and bauxite sales contracts generally price off international indices such as the London Metal Exchange, adjusted by certain factors, so this segment's earnings follow the market. The Rp1,084 billion impairment of fixed assets taken for 2025 was entirely in this segment; no impairment was booked in H1 2026. Separately, the 2025 auditor's report names the impairment test of certain fixed assets (about Rp7.6 trillion, 14% of total assets, with impairment indicators) as a key audit matter; the report does not say which assets.

Precious metals and refinery: a margin that swung across five readings

This segment's revenue was Rp50,388 billion (+1.4%) and operating profit Rp3,639 billion (+16.4%). Purchases of precious metals were Rp52,830 billion, 15.5% above last year's Rp45,739 billion, while gold revenue grew 1.2%: the difference shows up as the inventory build. Two customers each took more than 10% of group revenue: PT Sinar Inti Maju (a third party, Rp6,995 billion, 11.2%) and Bank Syariah Indonesia (a government-related entity, Rp6,957 billion, 11.1%). The margin ran 7.5% in the March 2025 quarter, 5.4% in June 2025, 18.4% in H2 2025 (Rp3,154 billion on Rp17,155 billion of revenue, the half in which gold sold fell to 4.8 and 3.3 tonnes a quarter), 10.3% in March 2026 and 4.4% in June 2026; full years were 6.2% for 2024 and 9.4% for 2025. The filings attribute the swings to no cause, and mention without linking them the August 2025 bullion rules and the April 2025 royalty rates.

Bauxite and alumina: small, and slowing from a fast start

Revenue rose 28.3% to Rp1,877 billion (bauxite ore Rp867 billion, +59.8%; alumina Rp1,010 billion, +9.7%) but operating profit rose only 12.4% to Rp348 billion, and the June quarter's Rp93 billion was down 33.3% on a year earlier and 63.7% on the March quarter, a 9.3% margin against 29.0% in March. Exports were Rp760 billion, 40.5% of the segment's revenue against 49.8% a year earlier. The 40%-owned smelter-grade alumina refinery in Mempawah is held through an associate and appears below the segment line (see Beyond the Usual).

The comparison: margins and head-office cost

Precious metals carry the revenue in every period; their margin was below nickel's in H1 2025 and H1 2026 and above it in H2 2025 (nickel's was 26.7% before the Rp951 billion impairment); bauxite and alumina contribute a little profit at a high-teens to low-twenties margin. Head-office cost rose 34.8% to Rp788 billion in H1, enough to absorb 8% of the three segments' profit.

The Stock Gave Back 57% of Its Rise

The price series used here is the month-end close for ANTM from June 2024 to June 2026. Over that window the stock went from Rp1,250 (June 2024, the lowest month-end close of the window) to Rp4,350 (February 2026, the highest), a rise of 248%, then fell to Rp2,590 by June 30, 2026: 40.5% below the peak, which gives back 56.8% of the Rp3,100 rise, 26.0% below the March 2026 close of Rp3,500, and still 107% above June 2024.

The series matches the closing prices printed in ANTAM's 2025 annual report for seven quarter-ends: Rp1,250 (June 2024), Rp1,480 (September 2024), Rp1,525 (December 2024), Rp1,635 (March 2025), Rp3,040 (June 2025), Rp3,160 (September 2025) and Rp3,150 (December 2025), so no restatement factor from a rights or bonus issue applies in the window. The March 2026 close of Rp3,500 matches the price shown in the company's March-quarter presentation (market capitalisation Rp84.1 trillion, which reproduces the 24.03 billion share count). The annual report states ANTAM took no corporate action in 2025, the June 2026 statements show issued share capital unchanged at 24,030,764,725 shares, and the last issuance of shares was the October 2015 rights issue (after a 2007 stock split). The June 30, 2026 close of Rp2,590 has no company-printed counterpart.

No filing explains the price move. The numbers it can be read against are these: June-quarter operating profit was 12.5% below the March quarter and operating cash flow for the half was negative.

Beyond the Usual

Rp3.2 Trillion of Gold-Delivery and Refining Claims Sit Against a Rp133 Billion Provision, With the Detail Withheld

ANTAM has been a defendant since 2020 in a number of lawsuits over gold-bar sales, mostly claims that it did not deliver the agreed bars, seeking material and non-material losses of about Rp2.3 trillion as of June 30, 2026. Separately, PT Loco Montrado (default claim filed November 8, 2021, under a 2017 contract to refine metal anode) says ANTAM should pay material and non-material losses and deliver 5.36 tonnes of anode metal with 1% to 5% gold content, with a total amount of claims of about Rp933 billion (the filing does not say whether that total includes the anode); the Supreme Court's cassation decision of December 14, 2023 was, in the filing's terms, essentially not in ANTAM's favour, and ANTAM filed for judicial review on February 6, 2025. For both, ANTAM withholds the information its accounting standard normally requires, on the ground that disclosure could prejudice the outcome. The "Legal cases" line of the provisions note is Rp133.3 billion (Rp165.5 billion at the end of 2025), about 4% of the two claims added together (Rp3.2 trillion, equal to 8.4% of group equity and 47% of the half's net profit); the half's general and administrative expenses include a Rp32.2 billion reversal of the legal-case provision against a Rp20.5 billion addition a year earlier. The same note records that in one gold-bar case ANTAM asked the buyer to return 5.9 tonnes of gold, would refund Rp3.6 trillion on receiving it, and seeks about Rp5 trillion in compensation; it received a verdict on March 18, 2025 and took no further legal action, and the filing does not say who won. In another, ANTAM asked a court to rule a judicial-review verdict non-executable because cases of corruption and civil crimes are closely related to its substance, and said executing it may result in a significant amount of potential state losses (the filing adds that the Surabaya District Court's case-tracking site shows the execution could not be carried out because the applicant took no further action); the Supreme Court granted ANTAM's second judicial review on one issue in July 2025, with the effect reflected in the statements. The note also lists a verdict of May 27, 2025 in the case on gold-commodity governance in Indonesia for 2010 to 2022, on which ANTAM says its business operates normally and no impact has been recorded.

Profit Came With Negative Operating Cash: Rp7 Trillion Went Into Inventory

Net inventories rose Rp6,964 billion to Rp14,695 billion; gold and silver went from Rp5,297 billion to Rp12,154 billion. Customers paid Rp61.8 trillion in cash against Rp62.7 trillion of revenue (98.6%), but payments to suppliers rose 13.1% to Rp57.4 trillion, and operating cash flow swung from positive Rp2,275 billion a year earlier to negative Rp752 billion (March quarter negative Rp3,154 billion, June quarter positive Rp2,402 billion, as finished-goods inventory fell Rp2.2 trillion in the June quarter, from Rp16.4 trillion to Rp14.2 trillion). The cash comes back only if the metal sells at or above cost: inventory is carried at the lower of cost and net realisable value (the expected selling price less selling costs). The financial-risk note says the group has no financial instruments whose value is directly linked to future global commodity price movements; inventory is not a financial instrument, and the filing does not say whether any other arrangement offsets price moves, though customers' advances for precious metals are Rp1,158 billion (note 22). Gold, silver, alumina, spares and supplies are insured for US$206.4 million (Rp3,685 billion), against Rp4,717 billion at December, while those inventories now carry about Rp12.8 trillion (gold and silver Rp12,154 billion, alumina Rp71 billion, spares and supplies Rp559 billion); management says the cover is adequate, and the filing does not say whether the insured amount is a value or a limit. Inventories are not pledged as security (note 6).

Two Suppliers Provide 76% of Precious-Metals Purchases by Value, and One of Them Is a Related Party Whose Supply More Than Doubled

ANTAM bought Rp52,830 billion of precious metals (gold and silver) in the half, Rp21,819 billion (41.3%) from ABC Refinery (Australia) Pty Ltd, a third party, and Rp18,212 billion (34.5%) from PT Freeport Indonesia, which ANTAM's related-party note describes as an entity in which its ultimate parent has significant influence (the company's presentation shows MIND ID holding 51.24% of Freeport). Purchases from Freeport were Rp8,922 billion (19.5%) a year earlier, and last year's two other large sources are gone: Stonex Apac (Rp16,689 billion a year ago) is not among the suppliers above the filing's 10%-of-sales line this half, and MIND ID Trading (Rp5,934 billion a year ago) shows no purchases. Related-party purchases of all goods and services were Rp19.6 trillion, 36.1% of cost of revenues and operating expenses against 31.0% a year ago; related-party sales were Rp9.08 trillion, 14.5% of revenue against 17.7%, led by Bank Syariah Indonesia at Rp6.96 trillion. The money flows from ANTAM to Freeport on the purchases. None of the four documents gives pricing terms for the Freeport or the ABC supply; the annual report separately describes a GSPA and a 30-tonne-a-year minimum with Freeport (see [The Prescription](#the-prescription)).

A Rp1.6 Trillion Contingent-Consideration Asset Depends on a Reserve Estimate, and Its Window May Already Have Closed

When ANTAM sold 49% of PT Sumberdaya Arindo (SDA), its nickel mine operator, to HKCBL (HongKong Ningbo Contemporary Brunp Lygend Co., Limited, controlled by Ningbo Contemporary Brunp Lygend), it recognised an asset for contingent consideration^{[»](/glossary/#contingent-consideration)}, a right to payments from HKCBL for additional reserves found in the inferred and unclassified areas of SDA's mine during a thirty-six-month period from the signing of the share purchase agreement. The asset sits in other assets at fair value of Rp1,580.5 billion (4.1% of equity), up Rp126.2 billion in six months, on a reserve input of 633,913 tonnes of contained nickel that is the same figure as at December 31, 2025. The filing does not give the end date of the window: counted from the conditional agreement of January 16, 2023 it ended in January 2026, and counted from the closing of December 28, 2023 it ends in December 2026. The filing calls the fair value uncertain because it rests on resource estimates, the rate at which exploration targets convert to reserves and future exploration costs (the discount rate used is 6.08%, 6.05% at December), and a deferred tax liability of Rp326.7 billion sits against it.

A Rp5 Trillion Dividend Leaves the Company Net Debtor After a Half of Negative Operating Cash

The shareholders' meeting of June 10, 2026 approved Rp5,046 billion of dividends from 2025 profit (Rp209.99 a share, 70.0% of the 2025 profit attributable to owners of Rp7,209 billion), recorded at June 30 as a dividend payable of Rp4,902 billion plus Rp145 billion of other taxes payable, and paid on July 10, 2026. MIND ID, as the 65% holder, receives about Rp3.3 trillion of it. At June 30, cash of Rp9,226 billion plus time deposits over three months of Rp723 billion, less bank loans and leases of Rp5,825 billion, was net cash of Rp4,124 billion; after the dividend that is net debt of Rp922 billion. The nickel projects ANTAM is funding are large: the March-quarter presentation shows the 40%-owned RKEF^{[»](/glossary/#rkef)} smelter at Buli (estimated cost about US$1.4 billion, 2025 to 2027, in engineering, procurement and construction) and the 30%-owned HPAL project (about US$1.9 billion, final investment decision under review), and ANTAM put Rp2,636 billion (US$159.6 million) into the Buli associate in 2025. The four documents do not say how much of ANTAM's share of either project is to be funded with equity rather than project debt.

The Alumina Refinery Associate Earned Rp258 Billion of the Rp395 Billion Associates Line

Share of profit of associates was Rp395.3 billion against Rp168.3 billion, accounted for under the equity method^» and therefore below operating profit and outside EBITDA. PT Borneo Alumina Indonesia, the 40%-owned alumina refinery, contributed Rp257.6 billion (Rp14.5 billion a year ago, on associate profit of Rp644.1 billion against Rp36.2 billion); Weda Bay Nickel (10%) Rp168.4 billion; PT Feni Haltim (40%) Rp39.7 billion against a loss of Rp18.4 billion; and PT Jiu Long Metal Industry (30%) Rp38.6 billion. Those four add to Rp504.3 billion, so the other associates subtracted Rp109.0 billion; the visible part of that is the 33.75%-held battery company PT Industri Baterai Indonesia, whose carrying value fell from Rp252.5 billion to Rp175.3 billion. Associates carry Rp10,017 billion at book, 16% of the June 30 market capitalisation. The filing gives no driver for BAI's profit rise, the annual report targets the start of Phase I operations for 2026 while the March-quarter presentation lists the refinery as in commercial operation, and ANTAM's own sales to BAI were Rp735.4 billion (Rp400.7 billion a year earlier, +83.5%) with Rp757.9 billion receivable from BAI at June 30 (Rp982.9 billion at December). Weda Bay revised a US$24 million dividend declaration down to US$11 million, and the Rp218.2 billion receivable for the difference was reversed against the investment.

One Counterparty, HKCBL, Sits Across the Table in Three Nickel Structures

HKCBL (introduced above; the company's presentation lists a consortium of CATL, Brunp and Lygend) is the counterparty in all three: it owns 49% of SDA, which ANTAM still consolidates and which is its only subsidiary with material minorities; it took 60% of PT Feni Haltim in December 2023, leaving ANTAM with 40% and an equity-method investment; and it holds 70% of the HPAL joint venture (ANTAM 30%) established on June 11, 2025. Minority shareholders took Rp524.3 billion of the half's profit, and the group paid Rp564.4 billion of cash dividends through a subsidiary in the half; the statement does not name the recipient, but minority equity moved from Rp1,301.7 billion to Rp1,261.5 billion, which is exactly the minority profit less that payment, so the payment went to minority holders.

The Dollar Loan Is Swapped Into Rupiah, and the Reported Currency Sensitivity Is Small

ANTAM drew US$250 million of a US$500 million syndicated facility (term loan to August 2030, floating at the 3-month benchmark plus a margin; the other US$250 million revolving tranche is undrawn) and fixed it in rupiah with a cross-currency swap^» with Deutsche Bank, which stood as an asset of Rp396.6 billion at June 30 against a liability of Rp78.9 billion at December and produced a Rp212.6 billion gain in other comprehensive income. It also holds US$155 million of put options on the dollar to December 2029, which it says protect its dollar loans receivable (a Rp17.0 billion fair-value loss in the half). The company reports that a 5% move in the rupiah would change profit before tax by Rp34.7 billion (the note ties this to translating dollar monetary assets and liabilities, not to dollar-linked revenue) and a 0.1% move in rates by Rp1.7 billion, small next to the Rp12 trillion of gold and silver inventory described above, which the filing does not link to any hedge.

Rp2 Trillion Is Owed to the State Utility, With Rp641 Billion More Contingent

PLN, the state utility, is the largest named related-party accrual, at Rp1,325.9 billion (up from Rp1,138.6 billion; 37.9% of all accrued expenses), and a trade payable of Rp719.9 billion, the same figure at both balance sheet dates, equals the mobilisation cost the Halmahera power-agreement note states (the post's inference that they are the same obligation). ANTAM also owes Rp20.5 billion of preservation cost and has a contingent liability of Rp640.9 billion for demobilisation that depends on how the plant is used. The agreement's term was cut from 30 years to 3 in May 2023 in view of the development plan for the FHT industrial park, in which ANTAM now holds 40%.

Mine-Closure Obligations Rose 82% in Eighteen Months

The provision for reclamation and mine closure was Rp1,817 billion at June 30, against Rp996 billion on January 1, 2025 (+82%), after additions of Rp423 billion and a Rp328 billion change in assumptions in 2025. The discount rate in the estimate is 7.06% to 7.26%, against 4.81% to 6.78% at December, and the guarantee deposits that back the obligations (restricted cash at state banks) rose to Rp807 billion from Rp460 billion.

Target Valuation Range

Verdict: too early to call, and not obviously expensive. At Rp2,590 the market pays 4.25 times trailing EBITDA on the likelier ex-dividend reading (3.85 times if the close was cum-dividend) and 7.0 times trailing earnings. The illustrative range of Rp1,440 to Rp4,060 around Rp2,725 on the ex-dividend basis is wide because trailing EBITDA of Rp12,811 billion is H1 2026's Rp8,981 billion plus H2 2025's Rp3,830 billion: it holds through December only if the second half of 2026 earns what the second half of 2025 did.

Market-cap and enterprise-value bridge (24,030,764,725 issued shares, the point-in-time count from the filing, chosen over a weighted average because it is the same figure as the weighted average behind reported EPS; ANTAM's annual report shows 22,875 treasury shares, immaterial; cash and debt as of the balance-sheet date):

Because the bridge adds non-controlling interests (Rp1,262 billion, 2.6% of enterprise value before they are added) at book value and subtracts the associates that EBITDA does not capture, on the cum-dividend bridge EV/EBITDA excluding the minority add-back would be 3.75 times; leaving the associates in, it would be 4.63 times against 6.59 times at December. The minority add-back is at book value (Rp1,262 billion) while minorities earned Rp524 billion of H1 profit (Rp789 billion trailing: 711,581 - 447,101 + 524,271); at the group's own 7.0 times that stake is worth about Rp5.5 trillion, about Rp4.3 trillion above book and about 0.3 times on the leading multiple, an illustration only. The verdict uses the book-value reading. The June 30 cash still includes the money that paid the Rp5,046 billion dividend on July 10 (a dividend payable of Rp4,902 billion plus Rp145 billion of taxes payable, not included in debt). The 2026 ex-dividend date is not in the filings. The annual report prints the 2025 schedule: last cum-dividend trading day June 20, ex-dividend June 23, record date June 24 and payment July 11, 2025, after a shareholders' meeting on June 12. This year's meeting was June 10 and payment July 10, so an ex-date before June 30 is the likelier reading, though it is not the 2026 date. This post therefore leads with the ex-dividend reading, in which the dividend is owed to holders and added: enterprise value Rp54,407 billion and EV/EBITDA 4.25 times; the bridge table above shows the cum-dividend figures (Rp49,361 billion, 3.85 times), which apply if the close was cum-dividend. The June 30 figures use June 30 balances; the December column uses December 31 balances and the December 31, 2025 share price.

Multiples (trailing twelve months, TTM, is the sum of four reported quarters, September 2025, December 2025, March 2026 and June 2026, calculated as FY2025 less the first half of 2025 plus the first half of 2026; revenue basis for both EV/Revenue columns is TTM and fiscal year 2025 respectively):

Enterprise value fell 19.9% on the cum-dividend bridge (11.8% on the ex-dividend reading) while trailing EBITDA rose 19.6% and trailing owners' profit 23.5%, so the whole move is a lower multiple on higher earnings. EV/Revenue is a weak yardstick here because 80% of revenue is bought-in gold. No peer multiple is shown; the combination of gold refining and nickel mining has no obvious listed comparable in the filings used here. Trailing EPS is Rp370, and the Rp209.99 dividend paid in July is a trailing yield of 8.1% at the June close.

Reverse check. On the ex-dividend enterprise value of Rp54,407 billion, a 4.5x multiple implies EBITDA of Rp12,090 billion (5.6% below trailing) and December's 5.75x implies Rp9,454 billion (26.2% below trailing), a number between trailing EBITDA and the annualised second half of 2025 (Rp7,661 billion): the market is discounting a meaningful fade from trailing earnings. A full discounted-cash-flow model is not built, because nickel and gold prices drive every line and the filings give no forward price deck.

Scenarios (a single multiple applied to an EBITDA case, a labelled illustration and not a fair value; the multiples are chosen, not derived; prices are on the ex-dividend basis):

Every scenario price converts enterprise value to a share price with June 30 balances less the dividend: cash Rp9,226 billion and time deposits Rp723 billion, less debt Rp5,825 billion, minorities Rp1,262 billion and the Rp5,046 billion dividend owed, plus associates at book Rp10,017 billion, a net addition of Rp7,833 billion or Rp326 a share. The cash-less-debt part of that bridge is net cash of Rp4,124 billion before the dividend and net debt of Rp922 billion after it. If the Rp2,590 close was cum-dividend, add Rp210 a share (the dividend) to every scenario price: Rp1,650, Rp2,935 and Rp4,270.

ANTAM earned Rp3.8 trillion of EBITDA in the second half of 2025 and Rp9.0 trillion in the first half of 2026; at Rp2,590 the stock is priced on the sum of the two, and the next half shows which of them is nearer to normal.