Q3 2026 · IDX · Nov 2, 2026

ANTM Nickel Now Earns 63% of Segment Profit on Just 19% of Revenue

ANTAM's nine months to September 2026 show revenue up 22.8% to Rp88,481 billion and net profit to owners up 47.9% to Rp8,838 billion, with nickel now supplying 63% of the three operating segments' combined profit on just 19% of revenue - 76.7% of it in the third quarter alone, up from 44.3% in the first quarter. Operating cash flow swung from negative in the first half to a Rp5,812 billion third-quarter inflow as gold inventory was drawn down, and a Supreme Court judicial-review verdict on a long-running refining lawsuit arrived on September 7, 2026 with its financial impact not yet assessed.

Nickel Now Supplies Most of the Profit, and the Gold Business Can't Keep Up With Its Own Revenue

ANTM share price against operating income and its margin, last 7 quarters ANTM share price against operating income and its margin, last 7 quarters. One graph by quarter: bars are the quarter's operating income in Rp trillion, with two lines over them, the share price at quarter-end and the operating income margin. Q1 2025: share price Rp1,635, operating income 2.69, margin 10.3%; Q2 2025: share price Rp3,040, operating income 3.45, margin 10.5%; Q3 2025: share price Rp3,160, operating income 1.75, margin 13.5%; Q4 2025: share price Rp3,150, operating income 0.51, margin 4.0%; Q1 2026: share price Rp3,500, operating income 4.50, margin 15.4%; Q2 2026: share price Rp2,590, operating income 3.94, margin 11.8%; Q3 2026: share price Rp3,200, operating income 3.61, margin 14.0%. Share price at quarter-end (Rp, left axis) Operating income margin, % (right axis) Operating income for the quarter (Rp trillion; bars from zero, values in the bottom row) Rp2,000 Rp3,000 5% 10% 15% 2.69 3.45 1.75 0.51 4.50 3.94 3.61 Rp1,635 10.3% Q1 2025 Rp3,040 10.5% Q2 2025 Rp3,160 13.5% Q3 2025 Rp3,150 4.0% Q4 2025 Rp3,500 15.4% Q1 2026 Rp2,590 11.8% Q2 2026 Rp3,200 14.0% Q3 2026 Operating

Over these 7 quarters: share price Rp1,635 to Rp3,200 (+96%); operating income 2.69 to 3.61 Rp trillion; operating income margin 10.3% to 14.0%. One graph in actual numbers: bars are the quarter's operating income, over them the share price at quarter-end (left axis) and the operating income margin (right axis); each line is fitted to its own range, so read the timing, not the heights. Prices are adjusted for splits.

Nickel earned 63.4% of ANTAM's three operating segments' combined profit in the nine months to September 30, 2026, on just 19.2% of their combined revenue - and in the third quarter alone, nickel's share of segment profit reached 76.7%, up from 44.3% in the first quarter. ANTAM (IDX: ANTM) reported revenue of Rp88,481 billion for the nine months (up 22.8% year on year) and net profit attributable to owners of Rp8,838 billion (up 47.9%), continuing the acceleration the first-half report already showed. But the nine-month total masks a widening split: precious metals and refinery - still 78% of revenue - earned only 32.5% of segment profit on a margin that has now sat near a seven-quarter low for two consecutive quarters, even as its own revenue nearly doubled year on year in the September quarter alone. The cash picture improved sharply: operating cash flow, negative Rp752 billion in the first half, swung to a positive Rp5,812 billion in the third quarter alone as gold inventory built up earlier in the year was drawn down. And on September 7, 2026, just three weeks before the quarter closed, ANTAM received a Supreme Court verdict on a long-running refining-contract lawsuit that it says it cannot yet assess the impact of (see Beyond the Usual).

Nickel's Share of Segment Profit Has Nearly Doubled in Three Quarters

Nickel supplied 41.1% of the three segments' combined operating profit in the first quarter of 2025 and 44.3% in the first quarter of 2026 - roughly the same starting point a year apart. From there it accelerated: 71.8% in the second quarter of 2026 and 76.7% in the third, a run the first-half report's own base (57.4% for the half as a whole) did not fully show. Precious metals and refinery, which carries 78% of group revenue for the nine months, supplied just 18.4% of the three segments' combined profit in the third quarter alone - 32.5% for the nine months as a whole, down from 38.9% for the first half (see Segment Comparison).

In the September Quarter Alone, Precious-Metals Revenue Nearly Doubled While Its Profit Grew 11%

Precious metals and refinery's revenue in the third quarter (derived as the nine-month total less the half-year statements) was Rp18,412 billion, up 99.7% from Rp9,221 billion a year earlier, but the segment's operating profit grew only 10.9%, from Rp696 billion to Rp772 billion, pushing the margin down to 4.2% from 7.5% a year earlier. This is not a new deterioration within 2026: the margin has now run 10.3% (March quarter), 4.4% (June quarter) and 4.2% (September quarter) - essentially flat at its lowest level of the past seven quarters rather than still falling, after a one-off 31.0% in the fourth quarter of 2025. ANTAM's two largest disclosed precious-metals suppliers (see Beyond the Usual for how the mix between them shifted this quarter) are paid in line with market gold and silver prices; the filings do not say what drives this segment's margin, but a business built mostly on reselling a bought-in commodity would not be expected to widen its margin just because the commodity itself got more expensive, which is consistent with revenue nearly doubling while profit barely moved.

The Prescription

ANTAM should put a number on what part of the precious-metals segment's margin is genuine refining and distribution economics versus what part is simply tracking the gold price up and down - the filings still give no breakdown, and a segment that carries four-fifths of group revenue at a margin that moved from 31.0% to 4.2% across three quarters, with no stated cause, is not a segment investors can model with any confidence. A company that already discloses segment revenue and operating profit by quarter could disclose purchase cost per gram alongside sales price per gram for its own refined output; without it, a reader cannot tell whether the September quarter's thin margin reflects ANTAM's own refining spread compressing or simply a lag between when it bought gold and when it sold it.

What ANTAM should stop doing: treating a Supreme Court verdict on an outstanding lawsuit as something it can receive and then sit on without assessment. The filing says plainly that ANTAM received the Judicial Review verdict from the Supreme Court on September 7, 2026 but "has not been able to further assess the impact" because it had not yet received the official copy - more than seven weeks before this filing was issued. A company whose own gold-bar and refining litigation already totals roughly Rp3.2 trillion of claims against a Rp139 billion provision (see Beyond the Usual) should be able to say, at minimum, whether a verdict it has already received moves that number up or down, even before the formal copy arrives.

Key Financial Metrics

ANTM net revenue, operating income and its margin, last 7 quarters (Rp trillion) ANTM net revenue, operating income and its margin, last 7 quarters (Rp trillion). In Rp trillion, with the operating income margin as a percent of net revenue. Q1 2025: net revenue 26.15, operating income 2.69, margin 10.3%; Q2 2025: net revenue 32.87, operating income 3.45, margin 10.5%; Q3 2025: net revenue 13.01, operating income 1.75, margin 13.5%; Q4 2025: net revenue 12.61, operating income 0.51, margin 4.0%; Q1 2026: net revenue 29.32, operating income 4.50, margin 15.4%; Q2 2026: net revenue 33.39, operating income 3.94, margin 11.8%; Q3 2026: net revenue 25.77, operating income 3.61, margin 14.0%. Net revenue Operating income Operating income margin (% of net revenue) 26.15 2.69 Q1 2025 32.87 3.45 Q2 2025 13.01 1.75 Q3 2025 12.61 0.51 Q4 2025 29.32 4.50 Q1 2026 33.39 3.94 Q2 2026 25.77 3.61 Q3 2026 10.3% 10.5% 13.5% 4.0% 15.4% 11.8% 14.0%

Rp trillion; margin is operating income as a percent of net revenue, per quarter. Values are standalone quarters; 5 derived from annual, half-year or nine-month figures (Q2 2025, Q3 2025, Q4 2025, Q2 2026, Q3 2026).

9M 2026 (nine months ended Sep 30, 2026) vs 9M 2025, consolidated

FX: Rp17,885 = US$1 (Sep 30, 2026) and Rp16,683 = US$1 (Sep 30, 2025) - month-end market quotes, used only to convert the US$ columns, because ANTAM reports in rupiah. The rupiah weakened 7.2% between those dates, so US$ growth trails rupiah growth. The interim statements are unaudited and unreviewed (ANTAM's own convention for Q1 and Q3; only the half-year and full-year statements are reviewed or audited).

Metric 9M 2026 (Rp) 9M 2026 (US$) 9M 2025 (Rp) YoY (Rp) YoY (US$)
Revenue Rp88,481B ~$4,947M Rp72,028B +22.8% +14.6%
EBITDA (operating profit + depreciation and amortisation + impairment) Rp12,856B ~$719M Rp8,953B +43.6% +34.0%
Operating Income» Rp12,049B ~$674M Rp7,888B +52.8% +42.5%
Net Income (attributable to owners of the parent) Rp8,838B ~$494M Rp5,975B +47.9% +38.0%
...consolidated profit for the period Rp9,655B ~$540M Rp6,612B +46.0% +36.2%
Free Cash Flow» (operating cash flow less capital spending) Rp4,265B ~$238M Rp3,550B +20.2% +12.1%
Cash and cash equivalents (Sep 30, 2026 vs Dec 31, 2025) Rp10,542B ~$589M Rp8,434B +25.0% n/m

EBITDA here is operating profit plus depreciation and amortisation from the segment note (Rp807 billion for the nine months, against Rp932 billion a year ago) plus impairment of fixed assets (none this period; Rp133 billion in the first nine months of 2025, entirely in the Nickel segment). Free cash flow is operating cash flow less cash spent on fixed assets, exploration and evaluation assets, intangibles and mining properties (Rp795 billion this period, Rp471 billion a year earlier).

Operating profit (Rp12,049B) grew more than twice as fast as revenue because gross margin widened to 17.6% of revenue from 15.2%: nickel's much higher-margin business supplied a growing share of the total (see below), even as royalties paid to the government rose 68.6% to Rp2,412 billion (the higher rates under Government Regulation 19/2025, effective April 26, 2025, apply to the full nine-month 2026 period but only about five of 2025's nine months) and mine reclamation and closure costs rose 37.2% to Rp246 billion. Net profit grew a little slower than operating profit: finance costs rose to Rp445 billion from Rp104 billion (the group drew more against its bank facilities over the period - see Beyond the Usual), partly offset by a larger foreign-exchange gain (Rp417 billion against Rp154 billion) and a larger share of profit from associates (Rp301 billion against Rp140 billion); the effective tax rate was little changed at 23.5% against 21.7%, and minority shareholders took Rp817 billion of the period's profit, or 8.5%, against 9.6% a year earlier.

The quarterly series the two documents on file allow (the September quarter is derived as the nine-month total less the half-year statements; seven consecutive quarters, since the statements carry no earlier quarterly split and the 2024 annual figures give only the full year):

Quarter Revenue Gross profit Net profit (consolidated)
Mar 2025 Rp26,152B Rp3,636B Rp2,323B
Jun 2025 Rp32,868B Rp4,601B Rp2,820B
Sep 2025 Rp13,008B Rp2,747B Rp1,469B
Dec 2025 Rp12,614B Rp2,697B Rp1,308B
Mar 2026 Rp29,323B Rp5,617B Rp3,664B
Jun 2026 Rp33,391B Rp5,234B Rp3,249B
Sep 2026 Rp25,767B Rp4,705B Rp2,742B

Revenue fell 22.8% from the June quarter to the September quarter even as the nine-month total grew sharply year on year - a sequential pattern (a strong March-June run followed by a weaker September) that also showed up in 2025 (a strong March-June run followed by a much weaker September-December). The filings describe no calendar-driven seasonality, and the swings line up with gold volumes and prices and with nickel's own ore and ferronickel pricing cycle, not with any seasonal pattern the company states; this quarter's figures do not change that conclusion from the June 2026 post. Operating margin, unlike revenue, held up sequentially: 11.8% in the June quarter and 14.0% in the September quarter, because the mix shifted further toward nickel (see Segment Comparison).

Where Q3 2026's Revenue Went

Net revenue, and how much of it was left as operating profit and net income, in one view. Figures are the same standalone-quarter figures as the metrics table.

ANTM Q3 2026 revenue-to-profit flow Net revenue is the starting point. From net revenue, cost and deduction flows are shaded red, darkest to lightest by size, and operating income splits into other items & tax and net income, shown in green. Figures in Rp trillion and percent of net revenue, Q3 2026. Net revenue Rp25.8T · 100% Operating income — Rp3.6T · 14% Operating costs Rp22.2T · 86% Other items & tax — Rp1.2T · 4% Net income Rp2.4T · 10%

Rp trillion, Q3 2026. Operating costs are net revenue less operating income; other items & tax are operating income less net income. Standalone quarter; all three figures derived from an annual, half-year or nine-month row.

Key Operational Metrics

ANTAM's September statements are a set of financial statements and give no sales volumes or average selling prices - the same limitation the June 2026 post noted. No investor presentation for this quarter had been published as of November 2, 2026, though last year's equivalent deck followed the quarterly filing by about ten days. Revenue by product for the nine months shows where the growth came from:

Revenue by product 9M 2026 9M 2025 YoY
Gold Rp68,414B Rp58,672B +16.6%
Nickel ore Rp13,469B Rp9,527B +41.4%
Ferronickel Rp3,507B Rp1,629B +115.2%
Alumina Rp1,499B Rp1,365B +9.9%
Bauxite ore Rp1,143B Rp589B +94.3%
Silver Rp220B Rp92B +140.2%
Services Rp228B Rp155B +47.1%

Gold is still the largest single product line by far, but every other line grew faster than gold's 16.6% - nickel ore (+41.4%), bauxite ore (+94.3%) and ferronickel (+115.2%, off a small base) most of all. Without volume data, whether each line's growth is price, volume or a mix cannot be told from these statements alone; the pattern is consistent with both rising global nickel and bauxite reference prices over the period and with nickel's own operational ramp (see Segment Comparison).

Segment Comparison

ANTAM reports three operating segments, Nickel (nickel ore and ferronickel), Precious metals and refinery (gold, silver and refining services) and Bauxite and alumina, plus unallocated head-office costs and a small "Others" line. The company's Board uses net sales to assess them.

Segment 9M 2026 revenue Share of revenue 9M 2026 operating profit Share of segment profit Margin (9M 2026 / 9M 2025) Sep-qtr 2026 operating profit YoY / QoQ (vs Jun-qtr 2026)
Nickel Rp16,976B 19.2% Rp8,590B 63.4% 50.6% / 42.2% Rp3,216B +145.6% / +0.6%
Precious metals and refinery Rp68,800B 77.8% Rp4,410B 32.5% 6.4% / 6.5% Rp772B +10.9% / -33.5%
Bauxite and alumina Rp2,643B 3.0% Rp556B 4.1% 21.0% / 23.2% Rp208B +45.3% / +123.8%
Head office - - -Rp1,321B - - -Rp533B -
Others Rp62B <0.1% -Rp186B - - -Rp57B -
Total Rp88,481B 100% Rp12,049B - 13.6% / 11.0% Rp3,606B +106.1% / -8.5%

(Segment shares are of the three operating segments' profit, before head office and Others; September-quarter segment figures are the nine-month total less the half-year statements' segment note.)

Nickel's share of the three segments' combined profit, by quarter, where the quarterly split can be derived:

Quarter Nickel's share of segment profit
Mar 2025 41.1%
Jun 2025 56.7%
Sep 2025 61.0%
Dec 2025 nickel posted a segment loss (impairment-driven; see the June 2026 post)
Mar 2026 44.3%
Jun 2026 71.8%
Sep 2026 76.7%

The series is not a smooth climb - it dipped to 44.3% in March 2026 before resuming - but the two most recent quarters are its two highest readings on record in this set.

Nickel: revenue and profit both at their highest quarterly level yet

ANTM Nickel: segment revenue from contract with customers, segment operating profit and its margin, last 7 quarters (Rp billion) ANTM Nickel: segment revenue from contract with customers, segment operating profit and its margin, last 7 quarters (Rp billion). In Rp billion, with the segment operating profit margin as a percent of segment revenue from contract with customers. Q1 2025: segment revenue from contract with customers 3,765, segment operating profit 1,244, margin 33.0%; Q2 2025: segment revenue from contract with customers 4,104, segment operating profit 2,157, margin 52.6%; Q3 2025: segment revenue from contract with customers 3,285, segment operating profit 1,309, margin 39.9%; Q4 2025: segment revenue from contract with customers 3,697, segment operating profit -397, margin -10.7%; Q1 2026: segment revenue from contract with customers 4,467, segment operating profit 2,177, margin 48.7%; Q2 2026: segment revenue from contract with customers 5,947, segment operating profit 3,197, margin 53.8%; Q3 2026: segment revenue from contract with customers 6,561, segment operating profit 3,216, margin 49.0%. Segment revenue from contract with customers Segment operating profit Segment operating profit margin (% of segment revenue from contract with customers) 3,765 1,244 Q1 2025 4,104 2,157 Q2 2025 3,285 1,309 Q3 2025 3,697 -397 Q4 2025 4,467 2,177 Q1 2026 5,947 3,197 Q2 2026 6,561 3,216 Q3 2026 33.0% 52.6% 39.9% -10.7% 48.7% 53.8% 49.0%

Rp billion; margin is segment operating profit as a percent of segment revenue from contract with customers, per quarter. Revenue is the segment revenue from contract with customers (segment note; consolidated after elimination); profit is the segment operating profit (Laba usaha). Values are standalone quarters; some are derived from half-year, nine-month or full-year figures in the filings. Shows the 7 quarters the segment's definition and disclosures allow.

Nickel's nine-month revenue was Rp16,976 billion (+52.2%) and operating profit Rp8,590 billion (+82.4%), a margin of 50.6% against 42.2% a year earlier. In the September quarter alone, revenue was Rp6,561 billion (+99.7% year on year, +10.3% on the June quarter) and operating profit Rp3,216 billion (+145.6% year on year, +0.6% on the June quarter) at a 49.0% margin - slightly below June's 53.8% but still the segment's second-highest quarterly margin in this seven-quarter set. Both nickel ore and ferronickel revenue grew faster than gold's over the nine months (ore +41.4%, ferronickel +115.2%, against gold's +16.6%), consistent with nickel supplying an ever larger share of group profit. No impairment was booked in this segment for the nine months, against Rp133 billion taken in the same period of 2025.

Precious metals and refinery: flat for nine months, but revenue nearly doubled in September alone

ANTM Precious metals and refinery: segment revenue from contract with customers, segment operating profit and its margin, last 7 quarters (Rp billion) ANTM Precious metals and refinery: segment revenue from contract with customers, segment operating profit and its margin, last 7 quarters (Rp billion). In Rp billion, with the segment operating profit margin as a percent of segment revenue from contract with customers. Q1 2025: segment revenue from contract with customers 21,674, segment operating profit 1,615, margin 7.5%; Q2 2025: segment revenue from contract with customers 28,010, segment operating profit 1,511, margin 5.4%; Q3 2025: segment revenue from contract with customers 9,221, segment operating profit 696, margin 7.5%; Q4 2025: segment revenue from contract with customers 7,934, segment operating profit 2,458, margin 31.0%; Q1 2026: segment revenue from contract with customers 23,964, segment operating profit 2,478, margin 10.3%; Q2 2026: segment revenue from contract with customers 26,424, segment operating profit 1,161, margin 4.4%; Q3 2026: segment revenue from contract with customers 18,412, segment operating profit 772, margin 4.2%. Segment revenue from contract with customers Segment operating profit Segment operating profit margin (% of segment revenue from contract with customers) 21,674 1,615 Q1 2025 28,010 1,511 Q2 2025 9,221 696 Q3 2025 7,934 2,458 Q4 2025 23,964 2,478 Q1 2026 26,424 1,161 Q2 2026 18,412 772 Q3 2026 7.5% 5.4% 7.5% 31.0% 10.3% 4.4% 4.2%

Rp billion; margin is segment operating profit as a percent of segment revenue from contract with customers, per quarter. Revenue is the segment revenue from contract with customers (segment note; consolidated after elimination); profit is the segment operating profit (Laba usaha). Values are standalone quarters; some are derived from half-year, nine-month or full-year figures in the filings. Shows the 7 quarters the segment's definition and disclosures allow.

This segment's nine-month revenue was Rp68,800 billion (+16.8%) and operating profit Rp4,410 billion (+15.4%), a margin of 6.4% against 6.5% a year earlier - roughly flat for the nine months as a whole, which hides a much sharper story within the quarter (see above): September-quarter revenue nearly doubled year on year while operating profit grew only 10.9%. Purchases of precious metals also shifted supplier mix sharply within the quarter (see Beyond the Usual). Two customers were named above the 10%-of-sales disclosure threshold in the nine-month statements: PT Sinar Inti Maju (a third party, Rp12,319 billion, 13.9% of total revenue) and related parties in aggregate (Rp11,991 billion domestic, 13.6%) - Bank Syariah Indonesia, individually named at 11.1% of revenue in the June 2026 statements, is not separately named above the threshold in the nine-month statements, which may mean its individual share fell below 10% of the larger nine-month revenue base rather than that its purchases from ANTAM fell.

Bauxite and alumina: small, and recovering from a weak June quarter

ANTM Bauxite and alumina: segment revenue from contract with customers, segment operating profit and its margin, last 7 quarters (Rp billion) ANTM Bauxite and alumina: segment revenue from contract with customers, segment operating profit and its margin, last 7 quarters (Rp billion). In Rp billion, with the segment operating profit margin as a percent of segment revenue from contract with customers. Q1 2025: segment revenue from contract with customers 709, segment operating profit 170, margin 24.0%; Q2 2025: segment revenue from contract with customers 754, segment operating profit 139, margin 18.4%; Q3 2025: segment revenue from contract with customers 490, segment operating profit 143, margin 29.2%; Q4 2025: segment revenue from contract with customers 963, segment operating profit 156, margin 16.2%; Q1 2026: segment revenue from contract with customers 879, segment operating profit 255, margin 29.0%; Q2 2026: segment revenue from contract with customers 998, segment operating profit 93, margin 9.3%; Q3 2026: segment revenue from contract with customers 766, segment operating profit 208, margin 27.2%. Segment revenue from contract with customers Segment operating profit Segment operating profit margin (% of segment revenue from contract with customers) 709 170 Q1 2025 754 139 Q2 2025 490 143 Q3 2025 963 156 Q4 2025 879 255 Q1 2026 998 93 Q2 2026 766 208 Q3 2026 24.0% 18.4% 29.2% 16.2% 29.0% 9.3% 27.2%

Rp billion; margin is segment operating profit as a percent of segment revenue from contract with customers, per quarter. Revenue is the segment revenue from contract with customers (segment note; consolidated after elimination); profit is the segment operating profit (Laba usaha). Values are standalone quarters; some are derived from half-year, nine-month or full-year figures in the filings. Shows the 7 quarters the segment's definition and disclosures allow.

Revenue rose 35.3% to Rp2,643 billion (bauxite ore Rp1,143 billion, +94.3%; alumina Rp1,499 billion, +9.9%) and operating profit rose 22.8% to Rp556 billion, a 21.0% margin against 23.2% a year earlier. The September quarter's Rp208 billion operating profit was up 45.3% year on year and up sharply from June's weak Rp93 billion (+123.8%), but still 18.4% below March's Rp255 billion - a partial recovery from June's drop (see the June 2026 post), not a full one. The 40%-owned smelter-grade alumina refinery in Mempawah is held through an associate and appears below the segment line.

The comparison: nickel now carries the group, precious metals carries the revenue

Nine months in, nickel supplies most of the segment profit on a fifth of the revenue, precious metals and refinery supplies most of the revenue on about a third of the profit, and bauxite and alumina remains small but consistently profitable at a margin above both of the other two. Head-office cost rose 43.7% to Rp1,321 billion for the nine months, enough to absorb 9.7% of the three segments' combined profit, down slightly from 10.2% a year earlier as the segments' own combined profit grew faster still.

Stock Price Since Last Quarter

ANTM closed September 2026 at Rp3,200, up 23.6% from the Rp2,590 close at the end of the June 2026 quarter and up 1.6% from the Rp3,150 close at the end of 2025. Over the trailing 24 months (October 2024 through September 2026), the stock's month-end closes ranged from Rp1,390 (January 2025, the window low) to Rp4,350 (February 2026, the window high), a rise of 213% low to peak, then fell back: the September 30, 2026 close of Rp3,200 is 26.4% below that February peak and 130% above the January 2025 trough. No stock split falls within this window (ANTAM's issued share count, 24,030,764,725, is unchanged from the June 2026 statements), so these are actual nominal prices, not split-adjusted. The stock fell further to Rp2,550 by October 16, 2026, its most recent available month-end close - a 20.3% decline from the September 30 close the valuation below is built on.

No filing explains either the February peak or the subsequent decline. The only quarter-specific numbers available to read the move against are the ones in this post: revenue and operating profit both grew strongly for the nine months, but operating cash flow only turned positive within the September quarter itself, after a negative first half.

Beyond the Usual

A Supreme Court Verdict Arrived on a Rp939 Billion Refining Lawsuit, and ANTAM Says It Cannot Yet Assess the Impact

ANTAM has been a defendant since 2021 in a lawsuit from PT Loco Montrado ("LoMon") over a 2017 metal-anode refining contract, with LoMon seeking material and non-material losses plus delivery of 5.36 tonnes of metal anode, totalling approximately Rp939 billion (full amount, up from the approximately Rp933 billion stated in the June 2026 statements). The Supreme Court's December 2023 cassation decision went against ANTAM, and ANTAM submitted a request for judicial review on February 6, 2025. On September 7, 2026 - three weeks before this filing's period end - ANTAM says it "has received the Verdict of Judicial Review from the Supreme Court but since the official copy of the verdict has not been received, the Company has not been able to further assess the impact to the Group's interim consolidated financial statements." As of this filing's October 27, 2026 issuance date, more than seven weeks after the verdict was received, ANTAM still reports no assessed impact. Separately, ANTAM's gold-bar delivery lawsuits remain at approximately Rp2.3 trillion of claims as of September 30, 2026, unchanged from the June 2026 statements, against a combined legal-cases provision of Rp139 billion at September 30, 2026 - below the Rp166 billion at the end of 2025, but up from the Rp133 billion at June 30, 2026.

Among suppliers representing more than 10% of total sales, ANTAM's nine-month purchases from PT Freeport Indonesia (a related party, in which its ultimate parent MIND ID holds a significant interest) were Rp24,421 billion, against Rp21,819 billion from ABC Refinery (Australia) Pty Ltd, a third party. At June 30, 2026, the halfway point, the same two suppliers stood at Rp18,212 billion (Freeport) and Rp21,819 billion (ABC Refinery) - meaning ABC Refinery's nine-month total is, to the million rupiah, unchanged from its first-half total, while Freeport's rose by roughly Rp6,209 billion in the third quarter alone. On the figures disclosed, ABC Refinery supplied essentially nothing in the September quarter while Freeport's share of these two suppliers' combined purchases rose from 45.5% at the half-year mark to 52.8% for the nine months. The filings give no reason for the shift and no pricing terms for either supplier.

Short-Term Bank Loans Were Drawn and Repaid Nearly Four Times Their Outstanding Balance

ANTAM's nine-month cash-flow statement shows Rp23,938 billion of short-term bank loan proceeds and Rp23,529 billion of short-term bank loan repayments - a gross turnover of nearly Rp47.5 trillion against a short-term bank loan balance that stood at just Rp1,820 billion at period end (Rp1,330 billion at December 31, 2025). Including the long-term portion (Rp4,477 billion, up from Rp2,920 billion, funded in part by a separate Rp1,303 billion of new long-term proceeds with no long-term repayment shown), total bank loans rose to Rp6,297 billion from Rp4,250 billion. The group also paid Rp5,611 billion of dividends (Rp5,046 billion to parent-company shareholders, Rp564 billion through a subsidiary to minority holders) within the same nine months. The short-term facilities are unsecured and floating-rate (confirmed in the June 2026 statements); this filing does not say how many distinct drawdowns and repayments the headline totals represent, so whether this is routine working-capital revolving or a materially larger reliance on short-tenor funding than a year earlier (when proceeds were Rp5,864 billion and repayments Rp2,299 billion) cannot be told from the cash-flow statement alone.

A Contingent Nickel-Reserve Asset Keeps Growing in Value Even Though the Reserve Estimate Behind It Hasn't Moved in Three Straight Filings

ANTAM carries a Rp1,604 billion contingent-consideration asset (up from Rp1,580 billion at June 30, 2026 and Rp1,454 billion at December 31, 2025) from its divestment of 49% of PT Sumberdaya Arindo (SDA) to HKCBL - a right to payment for additional nickel reserves found in SDA's inferred and unclassified mine areas within thirty-six months of the signing of the 2023 share purchase agreement. The reserve input used to value it, 633,913 tonnes of contained nickel, is identical to the figure used at December 31, 2025 and at June 30, 2026 - unchanged across three consecutive filings even as the asset's fair value keeps rising, driven instead by the discount rate (6.70% at September 30, 2026, against 6.05% at December 31, 2025 and 6.08% at June 30, 2026) and exploration-cost assumptions. The filing still does not state the window's end date: counted from the January 16, 2023 conditional agreement it would have already lapsed in January 2026, nine months before this filing; counted from the December 28, 2023 closing it runs to roughly December 2026, within three months of this filing. Either way, a reserve figure that has not moved while the measurement window is at or near its end is worth watching for whether a true-up or a reserve addition shows up before the window closes.

A Small, Six-Year-Old Nickel-Ore Dispute With Dexin Is Still Unresolved

In a 2017 nickel-ore sales agreement with Dexin, payment for one shipment of about Rp33 billion was withheld by Dexin after the ship carrying it sank. BANI (the Indonesian arbitration board) ruled in December 2021 that Dexin must pay ANTAM US$2.4 million (about Rp34 billion); the related provision, booked since December 31, 2019, has not yet been reversed because ANTAM says it has still not received payment from Dexin as of this filing's date - nearly five years after the arbitration award.

ANTAM fully impaired the exploration and evaluation assets of mining areas affected by IUP (mining business licence) revocations in 2022. As of September 30, 2026, the Group had obtained the overturning of the revocation decisions for two of these IUPs, held by subsidiaries MCU and GK, from BKPM (Indonesia's Investment Coordinating Board); for the remaining revoked IUPs, ANTAM says it is still awaiting BKPM's response to its objections. Management says it will only assess whether to reverse the related impairment once the Group has actually reclaimed the revoked licences - meaning winning the revocation decision itself is not, in ANTAM's own account, the same as regaining the licence.

Target Valuation Range

Verdict: slightly richer than in June, still much cheaper than at the end of 2025. At Rp3,200 the market pays about 4.38 times trailing EBITDA and about 7.64 times trailing earnings attributable to owners, up from the roughly 4.25 times and 7.0 times this project estimated at the June 2026 close, but still well below the roughly 5.75 times and 10.5 times at the end of 2025.

In plain words: enterprise value (EV) is what the market says the whole business is worth - the value of all the shares, adjusted for net debt or net cash, non-controlling interests and the value of associates the group doesn't fully own - and EV/EBITDA divides it by a year of the profit measure this post builds from ANTAM's own disclosures. No DCF or scenario price is used; this is a multiples build against the company's own trailing history, with no peer comparison, since the combination of gold refining and nickel mining has no obvious listed comparable.

Market-cap and enterprise-value bridge (24,030,764,725 issued shares, the point-in-time count from the September 2026 statements, unchanged since the June 2026 statements and the same figure the post uses to reproduce reported EPS; cash and debt as of the balance-sheet date):

Sep 30, 2026 (Rp) Sep 30, 2026 (US$) Dec 31, 2025 (Rp) Dec 31, 2025 (US$)
Share price (period-end close) Rp3,200 ~$0.179 Rp3,150 ~$0.189
Market capitalization Rp76,898B ~$4,300M Rp75,697B ~$4,530M
Add: bank loans and lease liabilities Rp6,401B ~$358M Rp4,372B ~$262M
Less: cash and cash equivalents Rp(10,542)B ~$(589)M Rp(8,434)B ~$(505)M
Less: other current financial assets (time deposits over three months) Rp(300)B ~$(17)M Rp(2,278)B ~$(136)M
Add: non-controlling interests» at book Rp1,554B ~$87M Rp1,302B ~$78M
Less: investments in associates at book Rp(9,958)B ~$(557)M Rp(8,999)B ~$(539)M
Enterprise value Rp64,055B ~$3,581M Rp61,660B ~$3,690M

Unlike the June 30, 2026 balance sheet, there is no unpaid dividend sitting in this bridge: the Rp5,046 billion dividend approved June 10, 2026 was paid July 10, 2026, so no cum-dividend/ex-dividend ambiguity applies here (compare the June 2026 post). The Dec 31, 2025 column is reproduced from that post's own figures, on the same bridge method, for comparison.

Multiples (trailing twelve months, TTM, is the sum of four reported quarters, December 2025, March 2026, June 2026 and September 2026, calculated as the nine-month 2026 total plus the fourth quarter of 2025, which is FY2025 less the first nine months of 2025):

TTM to Sep 30, 2026 FY2025 (for reference)
Revenue Rp101,095B Rp84,642B
EBITDA Rp14,618B Rp10,715B
Net profit attributable to owners Rp10,072B Rp7,209B
Enterprise value Rp64,055B Rp61,660B
EV/Revenue» 0.63x 0.73x
EV/EBITDA» 4.38x 5.75x
P/E» (market capitalisation / owners' profit) 7.64x 10.5x

Enterprise value rose 3.9% from the end of 2025 while trailing EBITDA rose 36.4% and trailing owners' profit rose 39.7%, so on a year-over-year basis the stock is still considerably cheaper on both multiples than it was at the end of 2025, even though the multiples ticked up slightly from where the June 2026 close priced the stock (EV/EBITDA 4.25x on the ex-dividend reading, P/E 7.0x). The EV/Revenue multiple above is built on TTM (trailing-twelve-month) revenue and, regardless of basis, is a weak yardstick here because 78% of revenue is bought-in gold passed through at thin margin. No peer multiple is shown, since the combination of gold refining and nickel mining has no obvious listed comparable in the filings used here.


Figures in this post are drawn from ANTAM's interim consolidated financial statements as of and for the nine-month period ended September 30, 2026 (unaudited and unreviewed, issued October 27, 2026) and, for the first-half and year-end comparison figures, its previously published interim and annual consolidated financial statements. The September quarter is derived throughout as the nine-month total less the first-half statements. No investor presentation or call transcript for this quarter was available from ANTAM at the time of publication. Share prices and the rupiah-dollar exchange rate are month-end or daily market quotes used for valuation and currency conversion only.