A Cleaner Guidance Sweep, a Bigger Ownership Story, a Lower Stock
BRI's standalone Q2 2026 consolidated net income attributable to owners came in at approximately Rp15,372,692 million, up roughly 21.5% YoY from Q2 2025's Rp12,655,152 million - an acceleration from Q1 2026's already-strong 13.74% growth. Consolidated loan and financing growth (including subsidiaries) came in at 16.16% YoY for the half - nearly double the top end of BRI Group's own original 7%-9% 2026 guidance band - alongside NIM, Credit Cost and CIR all landing Inline or better against their own targets too (see BRI Group's Own 2026 Guidance Scorecard below). Rather than treat a beat of this size as a signal the original band was simply wrong, management's response was to raise the new FY2026 loan-growth guidance to 8%-10% - still far below the pace the bank is actually running at.
A second, genuinely new thread runs through this quarter's own materials, and it isn't about the P&L at all. This quarter's ownership table discloses that Danantara - Indonesia's newly-formed sovereign wealth fund (Badan Pengelola Investasi Daya Anagata Nusantara), which now holds the state's stakes across Indonesia's major state-owned enterprises - has become BRI's dominant shareholder, controlling roughly 52.66% of the bank indirectly, filed inside a reclassified "Corporations" investor bucket, while the "Government of the Republic of Indonesia" line itself has shrunk to a single, functionally symbolic shareholding (see Beyond the Usual below). This is the first time this backfill has recorded BRI's controlling shareholder as anyone other than the government directly.
None of this moved the stock. BRI shares closed Q2 2026 at Rp2,730, down 18.02% QoQ from Q1 2026's already-record Rp3,330 close and a fresh two-year low undercutting it further (see Stock Price below). Faster growth, a cleaner guidance scorecard, and a landmark ownership change all arrived in the same quarter the market marked the stock down again - the disconnect Q1's post first flagged hasn't narrowed, it's widened. The likeliest reason sits underneath the headline growth number: continued erosion in BRI's own capital ratio, even as the segments driving growth keep needing more of it (see The Prescription below).
The Prescription
BRI should slow its Commercial and Corporate loan-growth pace - the two segments carrying almost all of this quarter's headline growth (+58.1% and +47.1% YoY, adding a combined Rp157.9 trillion) - until bank-only capital adequacy stops eroding. CAR has now fallen in three straight periods: from FY2025's already-reduced 21.06%, to Q1 2026's 20.71%, to this quarter's 19.35% - a roughly 170-basis-point decline in just six months, concentrated in exactly the two segments (Commercial, Corporate) that consume the most risk-weighted capital per rupiah lent. Management's own presentation lists "Strong capital position" as one of this quarter's key takeaways; the bank-only ratio disagrees, and a reader shouldn't have to dig through a regulatory filing to find that out.
What BRI should stop doing: revising its own guidance bands upward to retroactively fit whatever growth rate already happened, rather than setting a genuine forward target. The original FY2026 loan-growth band was 7%-9%; actual 1H26 growth came in at 16.16%, and the "new" FY2026 guidance is now 8%-10% - a band still nowhere near the pace the bank is running at, revised only enough to look less obviously wrong than the original. A guidance system that gets rewritten after the fact to trail realized results, rather than bound them in advance, isn't really guidance - it's narration with a number attached.
Key Financial Metrics
Standalone three months ended June 30, 2026 vs. standalone three months ended June 30, 2025 (both derived by subtracting the already-filed Q1 figures from each year's H1 cumulative filed statement), consolidated
FX: approximately Rp17,880.00 = USD 1 as of June 30, 2026, per BRI's own filing footnote (versus Rp16,235.00 = USD 1 a year earlier - the Rupiah weakened roughly 5.2% against the US Dollar just since Q1 2026's Rp16,994.50 rate).
| Metric | Q2 2026 (IDR) | Q2 2026 (USD) | Q2 2025 (IDR) | YoY |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net Interest, Net Premium and Insurance Services Income ("Net Revenue" equivalent) | Rp40,743,695M | ~$2,278M | Rp37,448,464M | +8.80% |
| Operating Income (Profit from Operations) | Rp20,119,885M | ~$1,125M | Rp17,385,552M | +15.73% |
| Net Income (attributable to owners) | Rp15,372,692M | ~$860M | Rp12,655,152M | +21.48% |
| EPS (basic, attributable to owners, derived) | ~Rp101 | ~$0.0057 | ~Rp83 | +21.48% (shares outstanding unchanged since 2021, so EPS growth mirrors net income growth) |
Balance sheet: June 2026 vs. March 2026 (QoQ) and June 2025 (YoY), consolidated, as filed, total equity on an attributable-to-owners basis throughout
| Balance sheet metric | Jun 2026 (IDR) | Jun 2026 (USD) | Mar 2026 (IDR) | QoQ | Jun 2025 (IDR) | YoY |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total Assets | Rp2,352,381B | ~$131,564M | Rp2,249,834B | +4.56% | Rp2,106,371B | +11.68% |
| Total Loan & Financing (incl. subsidiaries, per BRI's own presentation) | Rp1,645,533B | ~$92,028M | Rp1,562,451B | +5.32% | Rp1,416,619B | +16.16% |
| Total Deposits (Third Party Funds) | Rp1,580,682B | ~$88,407M | Rp1,555,124B | +1.64% | Rp1,482,120B | +6.65% |
| Total Equity (attributable to owners) | Rp321,923B | ~$18,005M | Rp338,204B | -4.81% | Rp315,501B | +2.04% |
| Total Cash and Cash Equivalents (per cash flow statement, period-end) | Rp197,014B | ~$11,017M | Rp187,832B | +4.89% | Rp230,713B | -14.61% |
Equity fell QoQ even as net income kept growing: cumulative 2026 dividends deducted from retained earnings rose from Rp20.6 trillion at Q1's close to Rp52.1 trillion at Q2's - meaning roughly Rp31.5 trillion was paid out in Q2 alone, more than double the quarter's own Rp15.4 trillion of profit. Total cash rose modestly QoQ but stayed well below its year-ago level, continuing the multi-quarter drawdown funding loan growth.
Key Operational Metrics
Bank-only (individual), cumulative six months ended June 30, unless noted - per BRI's own filed "Calculation of Financial Ratios" statement. No transcript was filed alongside this quarter's financial statements.
- Capital Adequacy Ratio (CAR)»: 19.35% (1H26) vs Q1 2026's 20.71% and 22.68% (1H25) - a third straight period of decline, and the sharpest single-quarter drop in this stretch.
- Gross NPL»: 3.15% (1H26), down from 3.23% (1H25) and roughly flat vs FY2025's 3.29% - a genuine, if modest, improvement even as growth stayed concentrated in riskier segments.
- Net NPL: 1.04% (1H26) vs 0.99% (1H25).
- Net Interest Margin (NIM)»: 6.40% (1H26), down from Q1 2026's 6.53% and from 6.58% (1H25) - the multi-quarter NIM compression this backfill has tracked since 2024 resumed rather than staying flat.
- Operating Expenses to Operating Income (BOPO»): 69.56% (1H26), an improvement from Q1 2026's 71.30% and from 71.80% (1H25).
- Cost to Income Ratio (CIR»): 35.49% (1H26) vs 37.91% (1Q26) and 38.52% (1H25).
- Return on Asset (ROA», pre-tax basis): 3.30% (1H26) vs 3.29% (1H25).
- Return on Equity (ROE», average-equity basis): 18.50% (1H26) vs 16.95% (1H25).
- Loan to Deposit Ratio (LDR)»: 91.30% (1H26) vs 85.52% (1H25) - a meaningfully tighter ratio, loan growth continuing to outrun deposit growth.
- CASA Ratio» (bank-only, period-end): 67.8% (Jun 2026), down slightly from Q1 2026's 68.3% but still up from 65.7% (Jun 2025).
BRI Group's Own 2026 Guidance Scorecard
Consolidated basis, per BRI's own investor presentation, 1H26 actual vs. original 2026 guidance
- Loan Growth: 16.16% actual vs. 7%-9% original guidance - Exceed, by nearly double the top of the band. FY2026 guidance revised upward, but only to 8%-10% - still well short of the pace actually being run (see The Prescription above).
- NIM: 7.70% actual vs. 7.4%-7.8% guidance - Inline. FY2026 guidance held unchanged.
- Credit Cost: 3.08% actual vs. 2.9%-3.2% guidance - Inline. FY2026 guidance held unchanged.
- CIR: 39.21% actual vs. 41%-43% guidance - Exceed. FY2026 guidance held unchanged.
Growth Still Concentrated Away From BRI's Core Franchise - Now Behind a Redrawn Segment Line
BRI's five reported loan segments - Micro, Consumer, SME, Commercial, and Corporate - continue the pattern Q1 2026's post and FY2025's post both flagged: the segments carrying the consolidated growth beat aren't the segments BRI's own franchise identity is built around. This quarter adds a wrinkle worth reading the numbers through: BRI's own materials disclose that, since January 2026, KUR Small loans (Kredit Usaha Rakyat, Indonesia's government-subsidized small-business credit program) have been reclassified into the Micro segment (alongside a smaller Rp1 trillion shift of Bank Raya's Small-segment loans into Micro), with every historical figure back to 2021 restated to reflect it - meaning Micro's own growth rate below is now measured on a larger, redefined base, not a like-for-like continuation of the segment this backfill tracked through 2025 (see Beyond the Usual below).
- Micro (BRI's traditional core franchise, on the reclassified base): loan outstanding of Rp714.1 trillion, up 6.4% YoY (Rp43.2 trillion added) - among the slowest of the five segments even after absorbing the KUR Small inflow - while bank-only gross NPL rose to 4.1% from 3.8% a year earlier, though roughly flat versus FY2025's own 3.8%, a tentative sign of stabilization rather than renewed acceleration.
- Consumer: Rp236.9 trillion, up 8.9% YoY (Rp19.5 trillion added), with NPL rising modestly to 2.5% from 2.2% - still one of the cleaner segments by credit quality.
- SME: Rp212.2 trillion, up just 4.1% YoY (Rp8.4 trillion added) - the slowest of all five segments - with NPL actually improving to 5.2% from 5.4%, a rare bright spot in BRI's historically weakest-credit-quality segment.
- Commercial: Rp72.2 trillion, up 58.1% YoY (Rp26.6 trillion added) - the fastest-growing segment by rate - while NPL worsened sharply to 4.4% from 2.5% a year earlier, the segment's own credit quality deteriorating roughly as fast as its loan book is expanding.
- Corporate: Rp410.1 trillion, up 47.1% YoY (Rp131.3 trillion added) - the largest single source of incremental growth in absolute terms - while NPL improved to 1.2% from 1.6% a year earlier, continuing to prove growth and improving credit quality aren't mutually exclusive in this one segment.
Consolidated total loan and financing grew 16.2% YoY to Rp1,645.5 trillion (Rp228.9 trillion added), and Commercial plus Corporate combined added Rp157.9 trillion of that - roughly 69% of the total increase - almost exactly the same concentration Q1 2026's post recorded (roughly 68%). The composition hasn't shifted; it's simply accelerated, with Commercial's own NPL now the fastest-deteriorating of any segment even as it's also the fastest-growing.
Beyond the Usual
This quarter's source documents are BRI's condensed OJK-format published financial report for the six months ended June 30, 2026 and BRI's own investor presentation - no transcript was filed. The findings below draw on the filed statement of commitments and contingencies, the related-party disclosure, the ownership-composition table, and management's own loan-downgrade detail in the investor presentation, since the condensed OJK financial report itself carries no discursive footnotes to mine.
Indonesia's Sovereign Wealth Fund Now Holds Roughly Half of BRI, Filed Inside a Reclassified Investor Category
This quarter's ownership-composition table shows the "Government of the Republic of Indonesia" line reduced to a single shareholder holding an effectively nominal stake, while a footnote to the "Corporations" investor category (53.24% of all shares) discloses that Danantara - Indonesia's newly-formed sovereign wealth fund, which has been consolidating the state's ownership stakes across its major state-owned enterprises - now accounts for approximately 52.66% of BRI's total shares outstanding. This is a genuine, structural change in who BRI's controlling shareholder actually is: not a change in ultimate state control (Danantara is itself a state entity), but a change in the vehicle through which that control is exercised, moving from a direct ministry-held stake to a sovereign-wealth-fund holding structure whose own governance, mandate, and disclosure practices are still new and largely untested. This is the first quarter this backfill has recorded BRI's ownership table looking like this - worth watching for how Danantara's own governance and capital-allocation choices, once they become visible, feed back into BRI's own decisions.
FY2026 Loan-Growth Guidance Was Revised Upward - But Still Sits Far Below Actual Growth
BRI Group's original FY2026 loan-growth guidance was 7%-9%. Actual 1H26 growth came in at 16.16% - nearly double the top of that band - and management's response was to revise the FY2026 target to 8%-10%, an increase of just one percentage point at each end. A guidance band that gets nudged up slightly after being blown through by a factor of nearly two isn't functioning as a genuine forward risk-appetite signal; it reads more like a number updated just enough to no longer look obviously stale. Whether the bank is deliberately understating its own growth appetite, or whether the original band was simply a poor estimate, a reader can't tell from the disclosure itself - only that the gap between stated guidance and realized results has now persisted for two consecutive quarters (see [Q1 2026's post](/analysis/bbri/2026-03/#bri-groups-own-2026-guidance-scorecard) for the first instance).
Since January 2026, KUR Small Loans Have Been Folded Into the Micro Segment
BRI's own investor presentation discloses that, since January 2026, KUR Small loans have been reclassified from the Small/SME segment into Micro, alongside a smaller Rp1 trillion shift of Bank Raya's own Small-segment loans into the same bucket - with every historical figure back to 2021 restated to reflect the change. This means Micro's 6.4% YoY growth this quarter is measured against a segment definition that didn't exist in this form a year ago in the market's own understanding, even though BRI's restated comparatives make the arithmetic look continuous. A reader tracking Micro segment stress quarter to quarter (as this backfill has done since 2024) should treat this quarter's reclassified base as a genuine break in the series, not a clean continuation of it - the underlying organic growth and NPL trend for the segment BRI called "Micro" through 2025 may look different once the KUR Small inflow is accounted for.
This Quarter's Rp11.1 Trillion of Loans Downgraded to NPL Concentrated in Two Segments and Two Sectors
BRI's own loan-detail disclosure shows total loans downgraded from performing to non-performing between March and June 2026 came to Rp11.1 trillion, bank-only. Of that, 56.8% originated in Micro and 26.6% in SME - the two segments already showing the weakest or most-deteriorating credit quality this quarter - and by business sector, 48.0% came from Trading, Restaurant, and Hotel borrowers and 18.7% from Agribusiness. Of the total, 58.6% were investment loans rather than working-capital or consumptive credit. This is a genuinely granular disclosure BRI doesn't always provide, and it confirms the segment-level NPL story above isn't diffuse: it's concentrated in identifiable sectors, which makes it more tractable to underwrite around going forward than a broad-based deterioration would be.
Outstanding FX Derivative Positions Grew Sharply on Both Sides of the Book
Outstanding sales positions on spot and derivative transactions (a commitment-payable line, not an on-balance-sheet liability) rose to Rp237,659,535 million at quarter-end, up 20.8% from Q1 2026's Rp196,841,590 million and up 51.2% from FY2025's Rp157,153,569 million - continuing the multi-quarter growth Q4 2025's post first flagged. Unlike the prior two quarters, the offsetting purchase-position line also surged this quarter, to Rp114,875,021 million from FY2025's Rp57,618,468 million - nearly double - narrowing rather than widening the imbalance between the two sides for the first time in this stretch. The filed statement still doesn't disclose the underlying exposure being hedged, so the pattern remains one to watch rather than something whose size can be independently assessed.
Related-Party Non-UMKM Lending Fell 73% in a Single Year
Related-party Non-UMKM loans (Rupiah) fell to Rp541,122 million at quarter-end from Rp2,005,508 million a year earlier - a 73.0% YoY decline - continuing and sharply accelerating the multi-year shrinking-related-party-book trend FY2023's post first flagged. The filed statement doesn't explain whether this reflects specific loans being repaid, reclassified, or simply not renewed, but the direction is now a fourth consecutive year of decline in this exposure.
Stock Price
BRI's shares closed Q2 2026 at Rp2,730, down 18.02% QoQ from Q1 2026's Rp3,330 close and down 27.01% YoY from Q2 2025's Rp3,740 close. Measured over the trailing two years (July 2024 through June 2026), the stock ranged from an August 2024 peak of Rp5,150 to this quarter's own close of Rp2,730 - a 47.0% peak-to-trough decline - and this quarter's close is itself the lowest in the entire two-year window, undercutting even Q1 2026's own then-record low of Rp3,330 by a wide margin. A quarter with faster loan growth, a cleaner guidance scorecard, and a landmark ownership disclosure still closed at the steepest two-year decline this backfill has recorded for BRI - the disconnect between BRI's own operating narrative and its share price, first named explicitly last quarter, has now widened rather than resolved (see The Prescription above).
Target Valuation Range
~6.76x P/E, ~1.29x P/B. Bottom line: BRI looks cheaper still on both trailing multiples, almost entirely because the share price kept falling to a fresh low while trailing earnings and book value both continued growing - the valuation gap to BCA widened further on P/E even as it narrowed slightly on P/B.
Trailing-twelve-month net income attributable to owners of approximately Rp61,241,085 million (standalone Q3 2025's Rp14,502,109M + Q4 2025's Rp15,873,574M + Q1 2026's Rp15,492,710M + Q2 2026's Rp15,372,692M) against the Rp2,730 close and 151,559,001,604 shares outstanding gives a trailing EPS of approximately Rp404, and a P/E» of approximately 6.76x - down sharply from Q1 2026's ~8.56x, driven almost entirely by the share-price decline since trailing earnings kept growing.
Book value per share is approximately Rp2,124 (Rp321,923,187 million total equity attributable to owners ÷ 151,559,001,604 shares outstanding, unchanged since Q3 2021).
| Market cap → book value | Q2 2026 |
|---|---|
| Share price (period-end) | Rp2,730.00 |
| Shares outstanding | 151,559,001,604 |
| Market capitalization | ~Rp413,756B (~$23.14B, using ~Rp17,880.00/USD) |
| Total equity attributable to owners (book value) | Rp321,923B |
| P/B» | ~1.29x |
| Peer-multiple sanity check | Q1 2026 | Q2 2026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/E» | ~8.56x | ~6.76x | down sharply - entirely a function of the share-price decline, trailing EPS kept growing |
| P/B» | ~1.49x | ~1.29x | down - price-driven move, the underlying book value fell slightly this quarter on the mid-year dividend |
BBCA's own Q2 2026 post reported a trailing P/E of ~11.7x and a P/B of ~2.5x - a gap to BRI's ~6.76x and ~1.29x of roughly 1.73x on P/E and 1.94x on P/B, a wider P/E gap than Q1 2026's ~1.6x as BRI's own price fell faster than BCA's this quarter, but a slightly narrower P/B gap than Q1's ~2.1x.
A full DCF still isn't included here, for the same reasons given in an earlier quarter - the peer-multiple read above remains the more reliable lens until a longer run of genuinely clean, comparably-consolidated quarters builds up around this one.
PT Bank Rakyat Indonesia (Persero) Tbk's condensed OJK-format published financial report as of and for the six months ended June 30, 2026 (with comparative figures for the six months ended June 30, 2025), BRI's own investor presentation for the same period, and BRI's press release on its 1H 2026 results.