BBRI The Capital Ratio Stopped Falling - But Its Own Guidance Still Contradicts Itself

A Cleaner Profit Number Hiding a Messier Guidance Scorecard

Q1 2022's post closed with two open questions: whether bank-only Total CAR would keep reverting toward BRI's pre-rights-issue range after giving back two-thirds of its post-rights-issue gain in a single quarter, and whether the two FY2022 guidance lines already missed in the guidance year's first quarter - NIM and NPL - would recover or deepen. Six months in, the answers split. Bank-only Total CAR rose to 22.97% from Q1's 22.39% - the ratio didn't keep falling, it turned. NIM and NPL didn't move the same direction as each other: BRI's own guidance table now shows group-consolidated NIM at 8.2%, comfortably clear of the original 7.6%-7.8% band, while gross NPL came in at 3.3%, still above the 2.8%-3% ceiling and marginally worse than Q1's own 3.15% reading. One guidance miss resolved itself; the other didn't.

Consolidated net income attributable to owners came to Rp24,786,205 million for the six months ended June 30, 2022, up 98.72% YoY from H1 2021's Rp12,472,627 million (total consolidated net income, including non-controlling interests, was Rp24,876,271 million versus Rp12,539,836 million - a near-identical 98.38%). That's a faster YoY growth rate than Q1's own 78.24%, though the comparison bases aren't identical: Q1's 78.24% measured one quarter against its restated prior-year quarter, while this is a full six months against six months. Net Interest, Sharia and Premium Income, net, grew a more moderate 17.87% to Rp65,468,294 million, and Operating Income grew 68.76% to Rp31,154,325 million - the same pattern as Q1, where profit growth outran revenue growth because of the cost side: consolidated impairment for financial assets fell 9.71% YoY to Rp17,493,328 million from Rp19,373,612 million, doing much of the work that lifted net income growth well above revenue growth.

The Prescription

BRI should stop publishing a single "guidance vs. actual" table that mixes bases without saying so. This quarter's investor presentation shows group-consolidated NIM at 8.2% against a 7.6%-7.8% guidance band it originally set, then revises the forward target to 7.7%-7.9% - a range that's still below the very actual figure being used to justify the revision. Either the guidance is being deliberately kept conservative even after being beaten by half a percentage point, or the 8.2% and the 7.7%-7.9% band aren't measuring the same thing (bank-only NIM, shown separately in the ratio table, is 7.35% - inside neither number cleanly). A reader shouldn't have to reconcile two ratio tables in the same deck to figure out which NIM the guidance is actually tracking.

What BRI should do instead: extend the same clarity it's now giving CAR and Credit Cost - both tracked cleanly on a single, consistently-defined basis quarter over quarter - to NIM, publishing one basis (bank-only or consolidated, pick one) and holding the guidance band to that same basis every quarter. The bank has now shown, with CAR's reversal this quarter, that it can course-correct a ratio that looked headed the wrong way; NIM guidance deserves the same discipline rather than a range that moves without a stated reason.

Key Financial Metrics

Six months ended June 30, 2022 vs. six months ended June 30, 2021 (consolidated), unless noted

FX: Rp14,897.50 = USD 1 as of June 30, 2022, per BRI's own filed financial statements' Reuters middle-rate disclosure - a 4.53% Rupiah depreciation from Dec 2021's Rp14,252.50 and a 3.67% depreciation from Mar 2022's Rp14,369.00.

Metric	H1 2022 (IDR)	H1 2022 (USD)	H1 2021 (IDR)	YoY
Net Interest, Sharia and Premium Income, net ("Net Revenue" equivalent)	Rp65,468,294M	~$4,395M	Rp55,544,382M	✅ +17.87%
Operating Income (Profit from Operations)	Rp31,154,325M	~$2,091M	Rp18,459,663M	✅ +68.76%
Net Income (attributable to owners)	Rp24,786,205M	~$1,664M	Rp12,472,627M	✅ +98.72%
Net Income (total consolidated, incl. non-controlling interests)	Rp24,876,271M	~$1,670M	Rp12,539,836M	✅ +98.38%
EPS (basic, attributable to owners, six-month)	Rp164	~$0.011	Rp102	✅ +60.78%
Impairment for financial assets	Rp17,493,328M	~$1,174M	Rp19,373,612M	✅ -9.71% (lower is better)

Balance sheet metric	Jun 2022 (IDR)	Jun 2022 (USD)	Dec 2021 (IDR)	vs. Dec 2021
Total Assets	Rp1,652,839B	~$110,957M	Rp1,678,098B	⚠️ -1.51%
Loans and Financing (gross)	Rp1,051,040B	~$70,554M	Rp994,417B	✅ +5.69%
Total Deposits	Rp1,137,982B	~$76,392M	Rp1,138,743B	⚠️ -0.07%
Total Equity (incl. non-controlling interest)	Rp286,265B	~$19,216M	Rp291,787B	⚠️ -1.89%
Total Cash and Cash Equivalents (per cash flow statement, period-end)	Rp149,593B	~$10,043M	Rp153,925B (start-of-year)	⚠️ -2.81%

Total Assets, Deposits, and Equity are all slightly down against year-end 2021, echoing the same pattern flagged in Q1 - Total Equity's decline traces to the same FY2021 dividend distribution paid out earlier this year. Book value per share is discussed in [Target Valuation Range](#target-valuation-range) below.

Key Operational Metrics

Bank-only, per BRI's own investor presentation, unless stated

• CASA^»: 65.36% (Jun 2022) vs 63.30% (FY2021) ✅ and 60.10% (Jun 2021) ✅ - extending the climb Q1 already found rather than giving any of it back.
• Loan-to-Deposit Ratio (LDR)^»: 88.95% (Jun 2022) vs 83.67% (FY2021) and 84.52% (Jun 2021) - up on both counts, and now well clear of management's old "±85%" FY2021 guidance level.
• Net Interest Margin (NIM)^», bank-only: 7.35% (Jun 2022) vs 6.89% (FY2021) ✅ and 7.02% (Jun 2021) ✅ - improved on both counts and no longer trailing Q1's 6.85% reading, though still below the original 7.6%-7.8% FY2022 guidance band on a bank-only basis (see Beyond the Usual for the separate, higher consolidated-basis NIM figure BRI's guidance table actually references).
• ROA^» (after tax, bank-only): 3.11% (Jun 2022) vs 2.23% (FY2021) ✅ and 1.82% (Jun 2021) ✅ - improved sharply on both counts.
• ROE^» (book value, bank-only): 17.08% (Jun 2022) vs 14.09% (FY2021) ✅ and 12.90% (Jun 2021) ✅ - also improved sharply.
• CAR^» (Total, bank-only): 22.97% (Jun 2022) vs Q1's 22.39% ✅ and FY2021's series-high 25.28% ⚠️, and 19.63% (Jun 2021) ✅ - the ratio turned this quarter after Q1's finding that it had given back two-thirds of its post-rights-issue gain; see Beyond the Usual. Tier 1 CAR: 21.97% (Jun 2022) vs 21.39% (Q1 2022) and 24.27% (FY2021).
• NPL ratio - gross (bank-only): 3.32% (Jun 2022) vs 3.15% (Q1 2022) ⚠️ and 3.08% (FY2021) ⚠️ - a third consecutive quarterly worsening, and still above BRI's own 2.8%-3% FY2022 NPL guidance ceiling; see Beyond the Usual. NPL ratio - net: 0.86% (Jun 2022) vs 0.70% (FY2021) ⚠️ and 0.93% (Jun 2021) ✅.
• NPL Coverage Ratio (bank-only): 265.15% (Jun 2022) vs 278.14% (FY2021) ⚠️ and 258.41% (Jun 2021) ✅ - down from FY2021's series-high but still above year-ago levels.
• Loan at Risk (LAR)^» (bank-only, incl. Covid-19 restructuring): 20.78% of total loans (Jun 2022) vs 24.11% (FY2021) and 27.29% (Jun 2021) ✅ - continuing the steady improvement this series has tracked since 2021. LAR Coverage: 42.39% (Jun 2022) vs 35.56% (FY2021) and 30.96% (Jun 2021) ✅.
• Credit Cost (bank-only): 3.35% (H1 2022, cumulative) vs 3.42% (FY2021) ✅ and 4.12% (H1 2021) ✅ - an improving trend, though still above BRI's own 2.7%-2.9% revised FY2022 Cost-of-Credit guidance band (group-consolidated actual came in at 3.1%, per Beyond the Usual).
• BOPO^» (Opex/Opr. Income, bank-only): 63.98% (H1 2022) vs 74.30% (FY2021) ✅ and 78.30% (H1 2021) ✅ - improved sharply on both counts, consistent with Overhead Cost Growth landing at 7.5% YoY, within BRI's own unchanged 6%-8% FY2022 guidance band (see Beyond the Usual).

Business Lines: Loan Growth and Credit Quality

YoY, bank-only, per BRI's own investor presentation

Micro loans grew 16.0% YoY (+Rp58.7 trillion), again the fastest-growing large segment. NPL worsened further to 5.06% from 4.26% a year earlier - the same rapid-growth-driven NPL creep flagged every quarter since Q2 2021, now running noticeably hotter than the pace tracked through 2021.

Consumer grew 5.4% YoY (+Rp7.9 trillion), broadly in line with recent quarters; NPL actually improved slightly to 2.92% from 3.29% - a genuine reversal of the gradual retail-book deterioration tracked since Q1 2020.

Small Commercial grew 7.3% YoY (+Rp14.4 trillion), a step down from Q1's 8.3%; NPL improved to 5.79% from 6.58% a year earlier, though it's still the second-worst NPL of any large segment. Medium contracted 2.5% YoY (-Rp0.5 trillion) - the segment shrinking rather than growing - but its NPL improved sharply to 2.78% from 5.61% a year earlier, the best reading in this series' recent history for that segment, resolving the QoQ reversal flagged at Q1.

Corporate - still a single combined segment rather than the separate SoE/Non-SoE split this series tracked through FY2021 (see Q1's finding) - grew 6.1% YoY (+Rp11.1 trillion), the strongest reading disclosed for this segment since the merger, with NPL worsening to 7.37% from 7.18% a year earlier.

Segment Comparison

Total bank-only loan growth accelerated to 10.0% YoY (+Rp91.5 trillion), up from Q1's more modest pace, but the mix underneath continues the pattern this series has tracked for years: Micro remains both the fastest grower and the fastest NPL deteriorator, now at 5.06% and rising each quarter. What's different this quarter is Medium, which both shrank (the only segment to contract YoY) and improved its credit quality sharply - the kind of "smaller but cleaner" trade-off the segment hasn't shown since well before this series' Q3 2021 reversal warning. Consumer also improved on NPL for the first time in several years of tracking, a second data point (alongside Medium) suggesting BRI tightened retail underwriting standards rather than just riding the post-Covid recovery. Corporate, still a combined category, is the one segment where growth and NPL moved the wrong direction together - both up - though from a low base and without the SoE/Non-SoE split to say which side is driving it.

Beyond the Usual

This quarter's source document is BRI's OJK-mandated statutory "Published Financial Report" format (Laporan Keuangan Publikasi) - a condensed, full-line-item balance sheet and income statement, but, unlike Q1's source document, it carries no discursive notes on litigation, related-party dealings beyond a single compliance ratio, subsequent events, or share-based compensation; the document's own closing footnote states plainly that it is "not a complete presentation of the consolidated financial statements." What follows is drawn from what this filing and the accompanying investor presentation actually disclose.

One of Q1's Two Guidance Misses Reversed, the Other Deepened

Q1 flagged NIM and NPL as the two FY2022 guidance lines already missed in the guidance year's first quarter. Six months in, they've diverged. BRI's own guidance table shows group-consolidated H1 2022 NIM at **8.2%**, clear of the original 7.6%-7.8% band - prompting management to revise the forward range up to 7.7%-7.9%, a target that (oddly) still sits below the very 8.2% actual being used to justify the revision. Gross NPL, on the other hand, came in at **3.3%** on a consolidated basis (3.32% bank-only), still above the 2.8%-3% ceiling and a touch worse than Q1's own 3.15% bank-only reading - a guidance miss that's now three straight quarters running (Q1 2022, and implicitly FY2021 before it) rather than a one-quarter opening-year overshoot. BRI left the NPL guidance band itself unchanged despite the continued miss.

The Bank-Only Capital Ratio Turned, Rather Than Continuing to Fall

BRI's bank-only Total CAR rose to 22.97% in June 2022 from Q1's 22.39% - the first quarter since the rights-issue-era peak of 25.28% that the ratio didn't keep falling. Tier 1 CAR moved the same way, up to 21.97% from Q1's 21.39%. Loan growth (the likely denominator pressure Q1 pointed to) actually accelerated this quarter to 10.0% YoY bank-only, so the stabilization looks like retained earnings from a genuinely strong six months catching up to risk-weighted-asset growth, rather than the drawdown simply pausing on its own. It's one data point, not yet proof the ratio has found a new floor - but it directly answers the open question Q1 left hanging.

Off-Balance-Sheet Commitments Moved in Opposite Directions

BRI's Statement of Commitments and Contingencies shows outstanding irrevocable letters of credit rising to Rp14,778,925 million (June 2022) from Rp9,687,797 million (December 2021), a 52.5% increase, while guarantees issued fell to Rp43,909,105 million from Rp51,852,611 million over the same period, a 15.3% decline. Neither figure appears anywhere in the headline financial-highlights tables - both are footnote-level detail from the statutory statement of commitments, and the two moving in opposite directions suggests a shift in the mix of trade-finance versus guarantee-backed exposure rather than a simple net change in off-balance-sheet risk either way.

Stock Price

BRI's stock closed at approximately Rp4,150.00 on June 30, 2022, down 10.9% from Q1's Rp4,660.00 close - the first quarterly decline this series has recorded since Q3 2021, coinciding with the broader mid-2022 global risk-off in equity markets as major central banks (including Bank Indonesia's own tightening signals) turned toward rate hikes. Over the trailing two years (July 2020-June 2022), the stock still shows a wide range: a trough near Rp2,754.50 in June/July 2020, during Indonesia's Covid-19 downturn, and a peak of Rp4,870.00 in April 2022 - a ~76.8% trough-to-peak gain, with this quarter's close sitting roughly 50.7% above that trough despite the QoQ pullback. As in Q1, BRI hasn't split its stock since 2017, so every price referenced here is directly comparable to prior quarters' own figures with no adjustment needed.

Target Valuation Range

~12.65x P/E, ~2.23x P/B. Bottom line: BRI's own numbers got stronger this quarter while its share price fell, making the stock cheaper on both P/E and P/B than at Q1 - still trading at a discount to BCA, though a narrower one than Q1's, and the discount looks harder to justify given BRI grew net income faster than BCA again this quarter.

Annualizing H1 2022's basic EPS of Rp164 (×2 = Rp328) against the Rp4,150.00 close gives a P/E^» of approximately 12.65x - down from Q1's ~14.6x, driven by both a lower share price and faster six-month earnings growth than the annualized Q1 read implied.

Book value per share is approximately Rp1,864 (Rp282,580,908 million total equity attributable to owners ÷ 151,559,001,604 shares outstanding, unchanged since Q3 2021).

Market cap → book value	Q2 2022
Share price (period-end)	Rp4,150.00
Shares outstanding	151,559,001,604
Market capitalization	~Rp628,970B (~$42.22B, using this quarter's disclosed Rp14,897.50/USD rate)
Total equity attributable to owners (book value)	Rp282,581B
P/B»	~2.23x

Peer-multiple sanity check	Q1 2022	Q2 2022	Change
P/E»	~14.6x	~12.65x	✅ down - lower share price and faster six-month earnings growth
P/B»	~2.59x	~2.23x	✅ down - 10.9% QoQ share-price decline outran the modest recovery in book value per share

BBCA's own Q2 2022 post reported an annualized P/E of ~22.4x and a P/B of ~4.40x, using the same methodology - a gap of roughly 9.75x on P/E and 2.17x on P/B versus BRI's ~12.65x and ~2.23x. That's a narrower gap on both multiples than Q1's ~16.1x P/E and ~2.46x P/B gap, and it's narrowing for a reason that favors BRI: BRI grew net income attributable to owners 98.72% YoY this half versus BCA reporting its own stronger quarter after a weaker Q1, while BRI's share price fell and BCA's fell further. Some of the remaining gap likely still reflects the market pricing in Ultra Micro Holding integration-complexity risk and the NPL guidance miss above, rather than BRI's underlying earnings trend.

A full DCF still isn't included here, for the same reasons every prior post in this series has given - the peer-multiple read above remains the more reliable lens until a longer run of genuinely clean, comparably-consolidated quarters builds up around this one.

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