A Profit Recovery Built on Growth the Guidance Didn't Expect
BRI's standalone Q4 2025 consolidated net income attributable to owners - derived by subtracting the already-filed 9M 2025 cumulative figures from this year's full-year filing - came in at Rp15,873,574 million, up 5.19% YoY from standalone Q4 2024's Rp15,090,134 million. After three straight quarters of this series recording a YoY profit decline (Q1's 13.93% drop, Q2's 8.78%, Q3's 5.60%), this is the first quarter this year where the headline actually turned positive again. Standalone net revenue grew a similar 6.03% YoY to Rp39,821,452 million, while operating income slipped a modest 1.71% YoY to Rp20,182,699 million - the profit recovery came from below the operating-income line, not above it.
The full-year picture is more mixed than the Q4 turn suggests: FY2025 consolidated net income attributable to owners was Rp56,652,384 million, down 5.49% YoY against FY2024's restated Rp59,944,649 million (BRI's FY2024 comparative was itself restated for the January 2025 adoption of SFAS 117, "Insurance Contracts" - the same restatement basis every 2025 quarterly post in this series has used). So a genuinely better fourth quarter still wasn't enough to erase the year's earlier declines - the full year closed down, even as the most recent quarter closed up.
What actually drove Q4's growth is the more interesting story. Full-year consolidated loan growth came in at 12.3% YoY - comfortably past the top of BRI's own 7%-9% FY2025 guidance band, a band that every prior 2025 quarter in this series had been missing on the low side. But the growth wasn't spread evenly: Commercial loans grew 56.5% YoY and Corporate grew 40.2%, while Micro - BRI's traditional core franchise - grew just 3.3%, and SME barely more at 2.6%. The segments carrying this year's growth beat are also the ones where credit quality moved the wrong way fastest (see Growth Concentrated Where Asset Quality Slipped below).
The Prescription
BRI should treat this year's loan-growth guidance beat as a segment-mix story, not a franchise-wide win, and instrument Commercial and Corporate lending with the same underwriting discipline the Micro book has decades of experience running - because the 56.5% surge in Commercial loans arrived in the same year Commercial's own NPL nearly doubled (2.50% to 4.29%), and Corporate's 40.2% growth is the one segment where NPL actually improved (2.60% to 1.70%), showing the discipline gap is segment-specific, not a fact of fast growth itself.
What BRI should stop doing: letting the core Micro segment coast at 3.3% loan growth - the slowest of all five segments - while its own NPL climbs to 3.93%, the highest reading in the six years of segment data BRI has disclosed (up from just 0.83% in 2020). BRI's actual competitive edge has always been micro-lending reach and underwriting, not competing with universal banks on Commercial and Corporate terms; a year where growth shifts toward the segments it doesn't specialize in, while the specialty segment both stalls and deteriorates, is drifting away from what made the franchise valuable in the first place.
Key Financial Metrics
Standalone three months ended December 31, 2025 vs. standalone three months ended December 31, 2024 (both derived by subtracting the already-filed cumulative 9M figures from each year's full-year filed statement), consolidated
FX: approximately Rp16,675 = USD 1 as of December 31, 2025, per BRI's own filing footnote (versus Rp16,095 = USD 1 a year earlier).
| Metric | Q4 2025 (IDR) | Q4 2025 (USD) | Q4 2024 (IDR) | YoY |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net Interest, Net Premium and Insurance Services Income ("Net Revenue" equivalent) | Rp39,821,452M | ~$2,388M | Rp37,556,674M | ✅ +6.03% |
| Operating Income (Profit from Operations) | Rp20,182,699M | ~$1,210M | Rp20,533,233M | ⚠️ -1.71% |
| Net Income (attributable to owners) | Rp15,873,574M | ~$952M | Rp15,090,134M | ✅ +5.19% |
| FY2025 Net Income (attributable to owners, full year) | Rp56,652,384M | ~$3,398M | Rp59,944,649M* | ⚠️ -5.49% |
| EPS (basic, consolidated, full year, as filed) | Rp376 | ~$0.0225 | Rp398* | ⚠️ -5.53% |
*FY2024 figures restated for the January 2025 adoption of SFAS 117 ("Insurance Contracts") - the same restated comparative basis used throughout this series' 2025 posts.
Balance sheet: December 2025 vs. September 2025 (QoQ) and December 2024 (YoY), consolidated, as filed, total equity on an attributable-to-owners basis unless noted
| Balance sheet metric | Dec 2025 (IDR) | Dec 2025 (USD) | Sep 2025 (IDR) | QoQ | Dec 2024 (IDR) | YoY |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total Assets | Rp2,135,371B | ~$128,059M | Rp2,123,447B | ✅ +0.56% | Rp1,992,187B | ✅ +7.19% |
| Total Loans & Financing (gross, incl. subsidiaries) | Rp1,521,486B | ~$91,241M | Rp1,438,109B | ✅ +5.80% | Rp1,354,641B | ✅ +12.32% |
| Total Deposits (Third Party Funds) | Rp1,466,844B | ~$87,972M | Rp1,474,783B | ⚠️ -0.54% | Rp1,365,450B | ✅ +7.43% |
| Total Equity (incl. non-controlling interest) | Rp330,941B | ~$19,847M | Rp337,898B | ⚠️ -2.06% | Rp323,315B | ✅ +2.36% |
| Total Equity (attributable to owners) | Rp324,034B | ~$19,432M | Rp331,191B | ⚠️ -2.16% | Rp317,028B | ✅ +2.21% |
| Total Cash and Cash Equivalents (per cash flow statement, period-end) | Rp131,236B | ~$7,871M | Rp192,333B | ⚠️ -31.77% | Rp205,328B | ⚠️ -36.09% |
Cash fell sharply both QoQ and YoY - net cash provided by operating activities nearly halved for the full year (Rp24,283,108M in FY2024 to Rp14,617,023M in FY2025) as loan disbursements (Rp203,205,917M, up from Rp127,686,861M) outpaced even a stronger deposit inflow. This is the cash-flow signature of the loan-growth beat above: it was funded partly out of the bank's own liquidity, not solely out of new deposits.
Key Operational Metrics
Bank-only (individual), full year ended December 31, unless noted - per BRI's own filed "Calculation of Financial Ratios" statement. No transcript was filed alongside this quarter's financial statements.
- Capital Adequacy Ratio (CAR): 21.06% (FY25) vs Q3 2025's partial rebuild to 23.01% ⚠️, and down from 24.41% (FY24) ⚠️ - the year's earlier capital rebuild reversed by year-end, back near Q1's 21.55% low.
- Gross NPL»: 3.29% (FY25), unchanged from Q3's 3.29% but up from 2.94% (FY24) ⚠️ - the year's deterioration held rather than reversed in the final quarter.
- Net NPL: 0.96% (FY25) vs 0.75% (FY24) ⚠️.
- Net Interest Margin (NIM): 6.54% (FY25) vs 6.75% (FY24) ⚠️ - continuing the multi-quarter compression this series has tracked since 2024.
- Operating Expenses to Operating Income (BOPO»): 71.50% (FY25) vs 67.64% (FY24) ⚠️, though a slight improvement from 9M25's 71.89% - Q4 alone eased the ratio marginally without reversing the year's deterioration.
- Cost to Income Ratio (CIR»): 38.92% (FY25) vs 37.87% (FY24) ⚠️.
- Return on Asset (ROA», pre-tax basis): 3.26% (FY25) vs 3.76% (FY24) ⚠️.
- Return on Equity (ROE», average-equity basis): 16.84% (FY25) vs 18.40% (FY24) ⚠️.
- Loan to Deposit Ratio (LDR»): 91.96% (FY25) vs 89.39% (FY24) ⚠️ - tighter, as loan growth (12.3% YoY consolidated) outran deposit growth (7.4% YoY) for the year.
BRI Group's Own 2025 Guidance Scorecard
- Loan Growth: 12.3% actual vs. 7%-9% guidance ⚠️ - missed on the high side, the mirror image of every prior 2025 quarter's low-side miss, and concentrated in the segments flagged below.
- NIM: 7.8% actual vs. 7.3%-7.7% guidance ✅ - beat the top of the band.
- Credit Cost: 3.3% actual vs. 3.0%-3.2% guidance ⚠️ - missed on the high side, continuing every 2025 quarter's breach.
- CIR: 42.5% actual vs. 41%-43% guidance ✅ - landed inside the band.
Growth Concentrated Where Asset Quality Slipped
BRI reports loan performance across five segments - Micro, Consumer, SME, Commercial, and Corporate - and FY2025 is the first year in this series where the segment breakdown of where the loan book grew tells a sharper story than the consolidated growth number itself.
- Micro (BRI's traditional core franchise): loan growth of just 3.3% YoY, the slowest of all five segments, while NPL climbed to 3.93% - a fresh high across the six years of segment data BRI discloses (2.85% in 2024, 2.47% in 2023, 1.74% in 2022, 1.49% in 2021, 0.83% in 2020). The segment isn't growing, and its book is aging.
- Consumer: loan growth of 9.4%, with NPL up modestly to 2.35% from 1.97% - the second-cleanest segment by credit quality after Corporate.
- SME: loan growth of just 2.6%, the slowest alongside Micro, with NPL essentially flat at 5.01% (from 4.42%) - still the highest NPL of any segment, a longstanding pattern in this series.
- Commercial: loan growth of 56.5% YoY - the fastest of any segment by a wide margin - while NPL nearly doubled, from 2.50% to 4.29%. This is the segment where this year's growth beat and this year's credit-quality deterioration are the same story.
- Corporate: loan growth of 40.2% YoY, the second-fastest segment, but NPL actually improved sharply, from 2.60% to 1.70% - the one segment proving fast growth and improving credit quality aren't mutually exclusive this year.
Consolidated bank-only gross NPL held at 3.29% (unchanged from Q3), meaning the Commercial and Micro deterioration was offset at the blended level by Corporate's improvement and by loan-mix weighting - a blended ratio that reads as flat while masking real divergence underneath, the same kind of masking Q2 2025's post first flagged when Corporate's improvement covered for Micro and Commercial cracks mid-year.
Beyond the Usual
This quarter's source documents are BRI's condensed OJK-format audited financial report for the year ended December 31, 2025 and its own investor presentation - no transcript was filed. The financial-statement findings below come from the filed cash flow statement and commitments/contingencies statement, since the condensed OJK format carries no discursive footnotes to mine.
Loan Growth Beat Guidance by Growing Fastest Where Credit Quality Worsened Fastest
BRI's FY2025 consolidated loan growth of 12.3% YoY came in well above the top of its own 7%-9% guidance band - a reversal from every prior 2025 quarter, which missed the band on the low side. But 56.5 percentage points of segment-level growth (Commercial) and 40.2 points (Corporate) carried nearly all of it, while Micro - the segment BRI's own franchise is built around - grew just 3.3%. Commercial's NPL rose from 2.50% to 4.29% over the same year, meaning the segment producing the loan-growth beat is also the segment whose asset quality deteriorated the most. A guidance beat built this way isn't automatically a win; it depends on whether Commercial's underwriting catches up to its growth rate before the loans season into losses.
Micro Segment NPL Hit a Six-Year High While Its Own Growth Stalled
Micro segment NPL reached 3.93% in FY2025, the highest level in the six years of segment data BRI discloses (up from 2.85% in 2024, and more than four times 2020's 0.83%), while Micro's own loan growth slowed to just 3.3% YoY - the slowest of all five reported segments. A core franchise segment that is both barely growing and steadily losing credit quality, in the same year growth shifted toward Commercial and Corporate, is worth watching closely in the next several quarters to see whether this is a temporary underwriting tightening or a structural erosion of BRI's own specialty.
Operating Cash Flow Nearly Halved as Loan Disbursements Outpaced Deposit Growth
BRI's consolidated net cash provided by operating activities fell to Rp14,617,023 million for FY2025, down from Rp24,283,108 million in FY2024 - even though deposit inflows were actually stronger this year (demand and savings deposits combined contributed Rp116,808,245 million, versus roughly Rp44,911,365 million a year earlier). The reason cash flow still fell is that loan disbursements grew even faster: Rp203,205,917 million used on loan growth in FY2025, up from Rp127,686,861 million in FY2024. This is the cash-flow evidence behind the loan-growth beat above - it was funded partly by drawing down the bank's own liquidity buffer, not purely by new deposit funding, which is also why total cash and cash equivalents fell 36.09% YoY.
Revenue From Gold Sold More Than Tripled for a Second Straight Period
The cash flow statement's "Revenue from gold sold" line came in at Rp61,566,593 million for FY2025, up 238% from Rp18,192,082 million in FY2024 - the same surge Q3 2025's post flagged at the nine-month mark, holding at a similar scale through the full year. The offsetting "Cost of revenue from gold sold" line grew almost identically (Rp17,488,885 million to Rp59,167,627 million), so the net contribution to cash flow stays thin even as gross volume more than tripled - this activity sits in BRI's gold-pawning subsidiary business, not the core lending franchise, and isn't broken out or explained anywhere else in this document.
Outstanding FX Derivative Sales Positions Jumped Nearly Two-Thirds
Outstanding sales positions on spot and derivative transactions (a commitment-payable line, not an on-balance-sheet liability) rose to Rp157,153,569 million at year-end, up 65.7% from Rp94,874,355 million a year earlier - a larger increase than the corresponding purchase-position line (Rp57,618,468 million, up 16.9% YoY). The imbalance suggests a growing net short USD (or other foreign currency) hedging position relative to a year ago, though the condensed report doesn't disclose the underlying exposure being hedged.
Stock Price
BRI's shares closed FY2025 at Rp3,660, down 6.15% QoQ from Q3 2025's Rp3,900 close and down 10.29% YoY from Dec 2024's Rp4,080 close - giving back Q3's modest sequential gain. Measured over the trailing two years (January 2024 through December 2025), the stock ranged from a February 2024 peak of Rp6,125 to a February 2025 trough of Rp3,360 - the same 45.1% peak-to-trough decline every 2025 post in this series has already measured from this same window, with the year's final close sitting closer to the trough than the peak.
Target Valuation Range
~9.73x P/E, ~1.71x P/B. Bottom line: BRI closes FY2025 modestly cheaper on both trailing multiples than a quarter ago, purely because the share price fell faster than the year's mixed earnings picture - and its valuation discount to BBCA widened on both P/E and P/B this quarter, as BCA's own multiples expanded while BRI's compressed.
Using BRI's own filed full-year basic EPS of Rp376 (consolidated, attributable to owners) against the Rp3,660 close gives a P/E» of approximately 9.73x - down from Q3 2025's ~10.58x, as the 6.15% QoQ price decline outpaced the modest full-year EPS change (Rp376 vs Rp398, both restated FY2024 comparative basis).
Book value per share is approximately Rp2,138 (Rp324,033,858 million total equity attributable to owners ÷ 151,559,001,604 shares outstanding, unchanged since Q3 2021).
| Market cap → book value | FY2025 |
|---|---|
| Share price (period-end) | Rp3,660.00 |
| Shares outstanding | 151,559,001,604 |
| Market capitalization | ~Rp554,706B (~$33.27B, using ~Rp16,675/USD) |
| Total equity attributable to owners (book value) | Rp324,034B |
| P/B» | ~1.71x |
| Peer-multiple sanity check | Q3 2025 | FY2025 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/E» | ~10.58x | ~9.73x | ✅ down - 6.15% QoQ price decline outpaced the modest full-year EPS change |
| P/B» | ~1.78x | ~1.71x | ✅ down - share-price decline outpaced this quarter's book-value growth |
BBCA's own FY2025 post reported a trailing P/E of ~17.3x and a P/B of ~3.54x - a gap to BRI's ~9.73x and ~1.71x of roughly 1.8x on P/E and 2.1x on P/B, wider than Q3 2025's ~1.6x and ~1.9x as BCA's multiples expanded on its own Q4 price recovery while BRI's continued compressing.
A full DCF still isn't included here, for the same reasons every prior post in this series has given - the peer-multiple read above remains the more reliable lens until a longer run of genuinely clean, comparably-consolidated quarters builds up around this one.
PT Bank Rakyat Indonesia (Persero) Tbk's condensed OJK-format published financial report as of and for the year ended December 31, 2025 (with comparative figures for the year ended December 31, 2024), and BRI's own investor presentation for the same period.