BBCA Is Profit Growth Finally Running Out of Steam?

Three Straight Years of Slowing Profit Growth

BCA's FY2025 net income attributable to owners reached a record Rp57,537,287 million, up 4.9% year-over-year from FY2024's Rp54,836,305 million. That's a real number and a new high - but it continues a deceleration this series has now tracked for three straight fiscal years: FY2023 grew net income 19.4%, FY2024 grew it 12.7%, and FY2025 grew it just 4.9%. Each year the growth rate has been cut by roughly half or more, even as the absolute profit keeps climbing.

The underlying operating business isn't actually the problem - Operating Income (PPOP, consolidated) grew 7.1% to Rp75,271,923 million, faster than net income itself, which means the gap between operating growth and bottom-line growth widened this year rather than closing. Provisioning is a big part of the answer: consolidated impairment losses on assets nearly doubled, from Rp2,034,453 million in FY2024 to Rp4,011,047 million in FY2025 (+97.1%), eating into a chunk of the pre-provision gain. Loan growth itself, meanwhile, went through a real mid-year wobble - all four lending segments contracted quarter-over-quarter simultaneously in Q3 2025 for the first time this series had ever recorded - before three of the four rebounded firmly in Q4 (see Segment Performance below). The headline question this quarter raises isn't whether BCA's business broke; PPOP, deposits, and loans all still grew at healthy rates. It's whether a bank whose profit growth has now decelerated three years running, into a base that keeps getting larger, is quietly approaching the natural ceiling of how fast Indonesia's biggest private bank can keep compounding.

The Prescription

BCA should keep leaning into fee income and Wealth Management as the parts of the P&L that don't need the credit cycle to cooperate - non-interest income (gross) grew 8.7% for the year to Rp28,316,471 million, and Total Assets Under Management reached Rp313 trillion by December 2025, up from roughly Rp268 trillion a year earlier (see Key Operational Metrics). Both lines compound on relationships BCA already owns without competing with the loan book for deposit funding, and both held up through the Q3 loan pause without missing a step. What BCA should stop doing is treating a near-doubling of impairment expense as background noise inside a "resilient performance" headline - the FY2025 investor presentation frames the year around PPOP growth of 7.4% while burying the fact that provisioning costs grew more than 13x faster (97.1% versus 7.1% on a consolidated basis) than the operating profit it's presented alongside. A bank whose entire investment case rests on disciplined credit costs should explain what's driving that provisioning jump explicitly the year it accelerates this sharply, rather than let a reader infer it by netting two lines in the presentation deck themselves.

Key Financial Metrics

FY2025 vs. FY2024 (consolidated, audited annual figures, year ended 31 December)

FX: IDR 16,675.0 = USD 1 (31 December 2025, per BCA's own filed financial statements' Reuters middle-rate disclosure) - a 3.6% Rupiah depreciation from Dec 2024's Rp16,095.0.

Metric	FY2025 (IDR)	FY2025 (USD)	FY2024 (IDR)	YoY
Net Interest and Sharia Income (net)	Rp85,548,157M	~$5,130.4M	Rp82,264,164M	✅ +4.0%
Non-interest operating income (gross)	Rp28,316,471M	~$1,698.3M	Rp26,042,377M	✅ +8.7%
Net Revenue (Operating Income, NII + non-interest)	Rp113,864,628M	~$6,828.7M	Rp108,306,541M	✅ +5.1%
Operating Income (PPOP, consolidated)	Rp75,271,923M	~$4,513.9M	Rp70,252,303M	✅ +7.1%
Net Income (attributable to owners)	Rp57,537,287M	~$3,450.7M	Rp54,836,305M	⚠️ +4.9%
EPS (full-year, consolidated)	Rp467	~$0.028	Rp445	⚠️ +4.9%

A bank has no Adjusted EBITDA or free cash flow, per this series' convention for deposit-taking institutions. Net income growth is flagged ⚠️ rather than ✅ despite the record absolute figure, because 4.9% is the slowest annual pace this series has tracked - see Three Straight Years of Slowing Profit Growth above.

Impairment losses on assets nearly doubled to Rp4,011,047 million from Rp2,034,453 million, the fastest-growing line in the entire income statement this year. Standalone Q4 2025 net profit (attributable to owners) was approximately Rp14,139,872 million, down 1.7% quarter-over-quarter from Q3 2025's Rp14,381,001 million - the second straight quarterly decline in standalone profit this series has recorded. BCA's own FY2025 analyst presentation shows consolidated cost-to-income (bank-only) jumping from 30.1% in Q3 to 35.9% in Q4 (+5.8pp), even though the full-year figure of 30.7% is still better than FY2024's 31.3% - see Beyond the Usual.

Balance sheet metric	Dec 2025 (IDR)	Dec 2025 (USD)	Dec 2024 (IDR)	YoY
Total Assets	Rp1,586,828,536M	~$95.16B	Rp1,449,301,328M	✅ +9.5%
Third Party Funds (deposits, incl. sharia)*	~Rp1,249,000,000M	~$74.91B	~Rp1,133,600,000M	✅ +10.2%
CASA (demand + savings deposits)*	~Rp1,045,000,000M	~$62.67B	~Rp924,000,000M	✅ +13.1%
Total Loans (outstanding, incl. sharia)*	~Rp992,900,000M	~$59.55B	~Rp921,900,000M	✅ +7.7%
Total Equity (attributable to owners)	Rp281,466,478M	~$16.88B	Rp262,640,621M	✅ +7.2%

*Total Loans, Third Party Funds, and CASA per BCA's own investor presentation (consolidated, including sharia financing), the same sourcing convention used since Sep 2019's post. The filed financial statements' own narrower "loans receivable" line (which excludes consumer financing and finance lease receivables reported separately) shows Rp940,481,200M at Dec 2025 versus Rp868,686,210M at Dec 2024, a smaller base than the presentation's consolidated loan figure but a similar directional +8.3% growth. Deposits from customers per the filed statements alone (excluding sharia deposits and deposits from other banks) were Rp1,233,799,081M at Dec 2025 versus Rp1,120,613,667M at Dec 2024, +10.1%.

Total equity attributable to owners grew a full 7.2% year-over-year to Rp281,466,478M, absorbing both the FY2024 dividend payout of Rp37,595,047M (up from FY2023's Rp34,208,826M) and the two treasury-stock buyback tranches detailed in Beyond the Usual below, on the strength of retained-earnings accumulation. Operating cash flow was Rp77,508,785M (~$4,648.7M), up a strong 44.0% from FY2024's Rp53,820,229M - the swing came almost entirely from the "increase (decrease) affecting cash" reconciliation items rather than a change in interest/fee cash receipts, which themselves grew only modestly (Rp116,653,110M vs Rp110,947,606M). Capital expenditure on fixed assets (Rp1,914,929M) and right-of-use assets (Rp536,281M) remained a small fraction of operating cash flow, as is typical for a bank whose cash flow is dominated by loan and deposit movements rather than capex. Cash and cash equivalents closed the year at Rp87,549,328M (~$5,250.9M), up 2.4% from Dec 2024's Rp85,482,530M.

Key Operational Metrics

Bank-only unless noted, from BCA's own investor presentation and financial-ratio disclosures:

• LDR^»: 76.8% (FY2025 average) vs Q3 2025's 75.6% ⚠️ +1.2pp QoQ, reversing the sharp Q3 easing, though still down 1.7pp from the FY2024 average of 78.4%.
• CASA to Total Funding (bank-only): 84.6% (FY2025) vs Q3 2025's 83.8% ✅ +0.8pp QoQ, and up 2.2pp for the full year from FY2024's 82.4%.
• NIM^»: 5.7% (FY2025) vs FY2024's 5.8% ⚠️ -0.1pp for the year; Q4 2025 came in at 5.6% vs Q3's 5.7%, -0.1pp QoQ.
• ROA^»: 3.9% (FY2025) flat vs FY2024's 3.9%; Q4 2025 eased to 3.6% from Q3's 3.7%, -0.1pp QoQ.
• ROE^»: 23.3% (FY2025) vs FY2024's 24.6% ⚠️ -1.3pp for the year; Q4 2025 fell further to 21.0% from Q3's 22.0%, a second straight quarterly decline.
• Cost-to-Income Ratio^»: 30.7% (FY2025) vs FY2024's 31.3% ✅ -0.6pp for the year, but Q4 2025 alone jumped to 35.9% from Q3's 30.1%, +5.8pp QoQ - the sharpest single-quarter move this series has tracked, see Beyond the Usual.
• CAR^» (bank-only): 29.8% (FY2025) vs FY2024's 29.4% ✅ +0.4pp for the year; Q4 2025 eased slightly to 29.8% from Q3's 29.9%, -0.2pp QoQ.
• NPL ratio - gross (bank-only, point-in-time): 1.7% (Dec 2025) vs Q3 2025's 2.1% ✅ -0.4pp QoQ, and down 0.1pp for the year from FY2024's 1.8%.
• NPL Coverage (Provision/NPL, bank-only): 183.8% (Dec 2025) vs Q3 2025's 166.6% ✅ +17.3pp QoQ, though still down 24.7pp for the year from FY2024's 208.5%.
• Loan at Risk^» (bank-only, incl. on & off-balance-sheet): 4.8% (Dec 2025) vs Q3 2025's 5.5% ✅ -0.7pp QoQ, and down 0.5pp for the year from FY2024's 5.3%.
• LAR Coverage (incl. off-balance-sheet): 71.6% (Dec 2025) vs Q3 2025's 69.5% ✅ +2.1pp QoQ, though down 5.3pp for the year from FY2024's 76.9%.
• Wealth Management AUM: Rp313 trillion (Dec 2025) vs Sep 2025's Rp303 trillion ✅ +3.3% QoQ, and up roughly 16.8% for the year from Dec 2024's approximately Rp268 trillion, with bonds still around 92% of the base.

Segment Performance

BCA continues reporting four lending lines on a fully separated basis (consolidated, per this quarter's investor presentation): Corporate, Commercial, SME, and Consumer.

Corporate

Corporate loans reached Rp478.9 trillion (Dec 2025), up 11.5% year-over-year and 9.6% quarter-over-quarter - a sharp rebound from Q3 2025's first-ever QoQ contraction (-3.3%), and the fastest QoQ pace this segment has posted this series.

Commercial

Commercial loans reached Rp146.8 trillion (Dec 2025), up 8.5% year-over-year and 2.7% quarter-over-quarter - also reversing Q3's -0.5% QoQ contraction, though at a more modest pace than Corporate's rebound.

SME

SME loans reached Rp130.9 trillion (Dec 2025), up 5.7% year-over-year and 1.2% quarter-over-quarter - SME was the only segment still growing sequentially in Q3, and it kept growing in Q4, though its own QoQ pace decelerated from Q3's 1.8%.

Consumer

Consumer loans reached Rp224.1 trillion (Dec 2025), up just 0.2% year-over-year and 0.2% quarter-over-quarter - by far the softest annual pace this series has recorded for this segment, down sharply from Q3's already-soft 3.3% YoY. Unlike the other three segments, Consumer did not rebound in Q4 - it simply stopped moving, essentially flat for two consecutive quarters now.

Segment Comparison

Segment	Dec 2025 (Rp tn)	Dec 2024 (Rp tn)	YoY	Sep 2025 (Rp tn)	QoQ	Share (Dec 2025)
Corporate	478.9	429.5	✅ +11.5%	436.9	✅ +9.6%	48.8%
Commercial	146.8	135.3	✅ +8.5%	142.9	✅ +2.7%	15.0%
SME	130.9	123.7	✅ +5.7%	129.3	✅ +1.2%	13.3%
Consumer	224.1	223.8	⚠️ +0.2%	223.7	⚠️ +0.2%	22.9%
Total (four segments, consolidated)	980.7	912.3	✅ +7.5%	932.7	✅ +5.1%	100.0%

Q3 2025's post flagged all four segments contracting quarter-over-quarter simultaneously for the first time this series had tracked. That didn't compound into a genuine slowdown - three of the four segments rebounded firmly in Q4, with Corporate posting its fastest QoQ growth on record. But Consumer's flatlining rather than rebounding is itself worth watching: it's the largest retail-facing segment, and its growth essentially stalled across both Q3 and Q4, a full half-year of near-zero movement that the other three segments' rebound doesn't offset since it's a genuinely different signal (weak consumer credit demand) than the broader Q3 pause (which touched all four segments alike and reversed for three of them).

Beyond the Usual

This quarter's downloaded documents are BCA's audited consolidated financial statements for the year ended 31 December 2025 (with full notes) and its regulatory/OJK-format annual report, both carrying footnote detail on restructured loans, related-party transactions, commitments and contingencies, unresolved tax disputes, share capital movements, and accounting-standard changes.

A Second, Much Larger Buyback Program Ran Straight Through Year-End

BCA's first-ever share buyback, covering 26 March to 24 June 2025 (28,317,500 shares, Rp249,992 million, average price Rp8,828.19/share), was flagged in Q2's post as unchanged through Q3. The filed FY2025 accounts disclose a second, much bigger tranche: 22 October 2025 to 19 January 2026, covering 233,699,300 shares at an average price of Rp8,140.64/share - roughly 8.3 times as many shares as the first tranche, bought at a lower average price as the stock kept sliding. Treasury stock on the balance sheet stood at Rp2,152,514 million (262,016,800 shares) as of 31 December 2025, and the filing itself discloses that the second tranche's buying continued for another three weeks into January 2026 before the combined average purchase price across both tranches settled at Rp8,214.95/share. A capital-return program this size, running through a year in which four lending segments simultaneously paused growth, is a real allocation choice worth tracking - it isn't obviously wrong (buying back stock at a cheaper multiple than a year earlier is defensible capital discipline), but it does compete with the balance sheet capacity that would otherwise fund the loan rebound already visible in three of four segments.

The Restructured Book's Doubtful Tier Kept Normalizing

The "Doubtful" collectability tier within the restructured loan book, which Q2's post flagged as growing more than fivefold in six months and which Q3's post reported as partially reversing to Rp751,990 million, fell further to Rp350,589 million as of 31 December 2025 - a 53.4% quarter-over-quarter decline that puts it back close to (though still above) Dec 2024's Rp221,515 million starting point. The total restructured loan book itself shrank to Rp25,851,079 million from Q3's Rp26,569,369 million, down 10.2% for the full year from Dec 2024's Rp28,786,602 million. The concentrated migration first flagged in Q2 has now fully unwound rather than recurring.

Cost-to-Income Jumped Sharply in a Single Quarter Even as the Full Year Improved

Bank-only cost-to-income rose from 30.1% in Q3 2025 to 35.9% in Q4 2025, a 5.8-percentage-point jump in one quarter - the sharpest single-quarter move this series has tracked for this ratio - even though the full-year figure of 30.7% is still better than FY2024's 31.3%. BCA's own presentation doesn't call out a specific one-off driver for the Q4 spike; general and administrative expenses rose 15.6% quarter-over-quarter against manpower costs that were essentially flat, consistent with typical year-end administrative and provisioning-related expense timing, but worth watching in Q1 2026 to see whether it normalizes back toward the full-year average or represents a genuine step-up in the expense base.

A multi-year tax dispute continues working through Indonesia's court system: of the Rp48,774 million in disputed 2016 fiscal-year taxes previously sent to the Supreme Court on Judicial Review, only Rp3,605 million was accepted and received by the Bank on 27 November 2025, with the decision in the Bank's favor; the remainder of that year's dispute, along with separate unresolved 2017 and 2018 assessments, remains open. None of these amounts are individually material to BCA's scale.

BCA adopted Indonesia's new insurance-accounting standard (SFAS 117, the local equivalent of IFRS 17) for its insurance subsidiary this year, which required reclassifying prior-year comparative figures - FY2024's "Others" line under non-interest income and expenses was split out into separate insurance income (Rp3,110,733 million) and insurance expense (Rp1,753,761 million) lines to match FY2025's new presentation. The filing states this had no material effect on previously reported totals; it's purely a presentation change, not a restatement of actual results.

Coverage Table

Metric	FY2025	FY2024	YoY	Why it matters
Net income (attributable to owners)	Rp57.5tn	Rp54.8tn	⚠️ +4.9%	Record profit, but the slowest annual growth rate this series has tracked - see above
Impairment losses on assets	Rp4.0tn	Rp2.0tn	⚠️ +97.1%	Nearly doubled, the fastest-growing line on the income statement
Four-segment consolidated loans	Rp980.7tn	Rp912.3tn	✅ +7.5%	Three of four segments rebounded in Q4 after Q3's simultaneous pause; Consumer stalled instead - see Segment Performance
Treasury stock (buyback, cumulative)	Rp2,152.5bn	Rp0	-	A second, much larger buyback tranche ran straight through year-end - see Beyond the Usual
Cost-to-Income (bank-only, Q4)	35.9%	n/a	-	Jumped 5.8pp QoQ, the sharpest single-quarter move this series has tracked
Share price	Rp8,075	Rp9,675	⚠️ -16.5%	Recovered off Q3's low but still down for the year - see Stock Price and Valuation

Target Valuation Range

P/E of ~17.3x and P/B of ~3.54x - BCA looks fairly valued rather than cheap or expensive - the stock partially recovered off Q3's low into year-end, and at ~17.3x trailing earnings and ~3.5x book for a bank whose profit growth just decelerated to its slowest pace in this series, the multiple isn't demanding, but it isn't a clear bargain either given the open question of whether Q4's segment rebound sustains into 2026.

BCA's shares closed at Rp8,075 on 30 December 2025 (the last trading day of the year), up 5.9% from Sep 2025's Rp7,625 close but down 16.5% for the full year from Dec 2024's Rp9,675. Over the trailing two years, shares ranged from Sep 2025's own Rp7,625 low to Aug/Sep 2024's Rp10,325 high - a peak-to-trough swing of roughly 26.1%, below the threshold this series uses to justify a dedicated price section, so the move is folded into valuation here rather than given its own heading. BCA's last stock split (1:5) took effect 13 October 2021, well before this two-year window begins, so no split adjustment applies to these prices.

• P/E^»: ~17.3x, using FY2025's full-year net profit attributable to owners (Rp57,537,287M) against the Rp8,075 close and 123,275,050,000 shares outstanding - up from Sep 2025's ~16.5x, as the 5.9% QoQ price recovery outpaced Q4's own modest earnings addition.
• P/B^»: ~3.54x, using book value per share of Rp2,284 (total equity attributable to owners, Rp281,466,478 million, divided by 123,275,050,000 shares) - up from Sep 2025's ~3.40x, driven by both the price recovery and continued book-value growth.

Market cap → book value	FY2025
Share price (period-end)	Rp8,075
Shares outstanding	123,275,050,000
Market capitalization	Rp995,446B (~$59.69B)
Book value (equity attributable to owners)	Rp281,466B (~$16.88B)
P/B»	~3.54x

P/E and P/B	Q3 2025 (TTM)	FY2025 (actual)	Change
EPS	Rp463.7	Rp466.7	✅ up
P/E»	~16.5x	~17.3x	⚠️ up
Book value per share	Rp2,242	Rp2,284	✅ up
P/B»	~3.40x	~3.54x	⚠️ up

A full DCF still isn't attempted here, for the same reason as every prior post in this series - BCA's durable growth rate is easier to describe qualitatively than to pin to a single confident multi-year cash-flow forecast, and no other IDX bank in this backlog yet has a post covering the same December 2025 quarter for a peer-multiple comparison. At ~17.3x trailing earnings and ~3.5x book, BCA isn't priced for either a continued deceleration in profit growth or for the loan-segment rebound extending cleanly into next year - a reader weighing whether Q4's three-of-four-segment recovery is the start of reacceleration, or whether Consumer's stall and the shrinking profit-growth rate are the more durable signal, should treat this multiple as a fair starting point rather than a verdict either way.

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