BBCA Did Ending Covid-Era Loan Relief Just Show Up in the NPL Ratio?

The Relief Window Closes, and the Numbers Start to Show It

BCA's headline for the first half of 2024 reads like a continuation of a strong run: consolidated loans grew 15.5% year-over-year to Rp849.8 trillion, and net income attributable to owners rose 11.1% YoY to Rp26,876,184 million, with PPOP^» up a similarly healthy 11.3%. Q1 2024's post flagged that the OJK's targeted Covid-19 credit-restructuring relaxation had formally ended on 31 March 2024, and that the restructured loan book's worst collectability tier had already started ticking back up in anticipation. This quarter is the first full three months lived entirely without that relaxation in place - and the effect is no longer confined to the restructured book alone.

Bank-only gross NPL^» rose from 1.9% at Mar 2024 to 2.2% at Jun 2024, and NPL Coverage^» fell from 220.3% to 190.2% - a 30.1 percentage-point drop in a single quarter, the largest this series has recorded for this ratio. At the same time, bank-only CAR^» partially recovered from Q1's dividend-driven low, climbing from 26.3% to 27.8%, as retained H1 earnings rebuilt roughly half the equity gap the FY2023 dividend accrual opened up. Both moves are mechanically explainable - see Beyond the Usual for the restructured-book detail and Key Financial Metrics for the capital recovery - but a reader tracking BCA quarter to quarter should notice that the credit-quality story has shifted from "a restructured-loan footnote to watch" to "a headline ratio that's actually moving."

The Prescription

BCA's four-segment lending engine keeps compounding broadly - Corporate, Commercial, SME, and Consumer all grew loans year-over-year again this quarter, and Commercial specifically reversed Q1's one-quarter contraction - and the bank should keep pushing the same playbook that's driving it: CASA^»-funded growth into the segments with the best risk-adjusted spread, particularly Corporate's investment-loan mix, which has grown from 58% to 64% of Corporate loans in two years without any sign of asset-quality strain in that segment specifically. What it should stop doing is treating the end of Covid-era restructuring relief as a quiet, footnote-level transition rather than something worth addressing directly for investors. The bank-only NPL ratio and coverage ratio both just moved by amounts this series hasn't previously recorded in a single quarter, and neither the earnings deck nor the press release frames this as connected to the relaxation's expiry - a reader has to cross-reference the restructured-loan note in the filed statements themselves to see the link. A bank whose core pitch is disclosure quality and prudent risk management shouldn't leave a first-order credit-quality shift for readers to reconstruct on their own.

Key Financial Metrics

H1 2024 vs. H1 2023 (P&L, consolidated unaudited interim figures, six months ended 30 June), and 30 June 2024 vs. 31 December 2023 (balance sheet, consolidated unaudited/audited)

FX: IDR 16,375.0 = USD 1 (30 June 2024, per BCA's own filed financial statements' Reuters middle-rate disclosure) - a 6.4% Rupiah depreciation from Dec 2023's Rp15,397.0, and a further 3.3% depreciation from Mar 2024's Rp15,855.0.

Metric	H1 2024 (IDR)	H1 2024 (USD)	H1 2023 (IDR)	YoY
Net Interest Income (+ sharia)	Rp39,895,343M	~$2,436.7M	Rp36,900,609M	✅ +8.1%
Non-interest income (gross)	Rp12,777,832M	~$780.4M	Rp11,403,720M	✅ +12.1%
Net Revenue (Operating Income, NII + non-interest)	Rp52,673,175M	~$3,216.5M	Rp48,304,329M	✅ +9.0%
Operating Income (PPOP, consolidated)	Rp34,628,282M	~$2,114.9M	Rp31,125,834M	✅ +11.3%
Net Income (attributable to owners)	Rp26,876,184M	~$1,641.1M	Rp24,190,206M	✅ +11.1%
EPS (six-month, consolidated)	Rp218	~$0.0133	Rp196	✅ +11.2%

A bank has no Adjusted EBITDA or free cash flow, per this series' convention for deposit-taking institutions.

Impairment losses on assets rose 13.1% YoY (Rp1,242,995M to Rp1,405,716M) - the fastest such increase since Q1 2023, and directionally consistent with this quarter's NPL uptick discussed under Beyond the Usual. Standalone quarterly net profit rose to Rp13,996,698M in Q2, up 8.7% QoQ from Q1's Rp12,879,486M - the strongest sequential quarterly gain since Q2 2022, breaking the near-flat pattern that ran through most of 2023 into Q1 2024.

Balance sheet metric	Jun 2024 (IDR)	Jun 2024 (USD)	Dec 2023 (IDR)	YTD
Total Assets	Rp1,425,417,230M	~$87.06B	Rp1,408,107,010M	✅ +1.2%
Third Party Funds (deposits, incl. sharia)*	~Rp1,125,000,000M	~$68.70B	~Rp1,101,700,000M	✅ +2.1%
CASA (demand + savings deposits)*	~Rp915,000,000M	~$55.88B	~Rp884,600,000M	✅ +3.5%
Total Loans (outstanding, incl. sharia)*	~Rp849,800,000M	~$51.90B	~Rp810,400,000M	✅ +4.9%
Total Equity (attributable to owners)	Rp240,679,250M	~$14.70B	Rp242,356,256M	⚠️ -0.7%

*Third Party Funds, CASA, and Total Loans per BCA's own investor presentation (consolidated, including sharia financing), the same sourcing convention used since Sep 2019's post.

Total equity attributable to owners is down only 0.7% year-to-date, a sharp narrowing from Q1 2024's -6.3% QoQ drop against Dec 2023: equity actually rose 6.0% quarter-over-quarter in Q2 alone, from Rp227,161,854M to Rp240,679,250M, as roughly Rp14.0 trillion of Q2 net income flowed into retained earnings with no further dividend accrual this quarter. This is the mechanical unwind Q1's post anticipated - the FY2023 dividend hit equity once, in Q1, and Q2 is simply the bank compounding retained earnings again. Operating cash flow for the half was Rp46,837,017M (~$2,860.9M), down 5.4% from H1 2023's Rp49,513,360M, as a smaller net increase in customer deposits (Rp18,802,686M vs H1 2023's Rp33,443,190M) offset stronger receipts from investment-securities maturities. Capital expenditure on fixed assets (Rp473,687M) and right-of-use assets (Rp347,625M) remained a small fraction of operating cash flow, as is typical for a bank whose cash flow is dominated by loan and deposit movements rather than capex. Cash and cash equivalents closed the half at Rp112,175,452M (~$6,850.9M), down 9.8% from Dec 2023's Rp124,395,987M and down 28.6% from Jun 2023's Rp156,986,231M, reflecting the period's larger net cash outflow into investment securities.

Key Operational Metrics

Bank-only unless noted, from BCA's own investor presentation and financial-ratio disclosures:

• CASA to Total Funding: 82.2% (Jun 2024) vs Mar 2024's 81.5% ✅ +0.7pp.
• LDR^»: 72.7% (Jun 2024) vs 71.2% (Mar 2024) ⚠️ +1.5pp - a fifth straight quarter of rising loan-to-deposit pressure.
• NIM^»: 5.8% (Jun 2024, quarterly) vs Mar 2024's 5.6% ✅ +0.2pp - the first meaningful NIM improvement since this series' post-2022 peak.
• ROA^»: 4.1% (Jun 2024, quarterly) vs 3.6% (Mar 2024) ✅ +0.5pp.
• ROE^»: 26.9% (Jun 2024, quarterly) vs 22.7% (Mar 2024) ✅ +4.2pp - boosted partly by the still-recovering equity base, not solely by stronger earnings.
• CAR^» (bank-only): 27.8% (Jun 2024) vs Mar 2024's 26.3% ✅ +1.5pp - a partial mechanical recovery from Q1's dividend-driven drop, still below Dec 2023's pre-dividend 29.4%.
• NPL ratio - gross (bank-only, point-in-time): 2.2% (30 Jun 2024) vs 1.9% (31 Mar 2024) ⚠️ +0.3pp - see Beyond the Usual.
• NPL Coverage^» (Provision/NPL, bank-only): 190.2% (Jun 2024) vs Mar 2024's 220.3% ⚠️ -30.1pp - the largest single-quarter decline this series has recorded for this ratio.
• Cost-to-Income Ratio^»: 29.1% (Jun 2024, quarterly) vs 32.4% (Mar 2024) ✅ -3.3pp - Q1's seasonal personnel-cost step-up unwound.
• Cost of credit (bank-only): 0.2% (Q2 2024) vs 0.4% (Q1 2024) ✅ -0.2pp.
• Loan at Risk^» (consolidated, includes on & off-balance-sheet): 6.3% (Jun 2024) vs Mar 2024's 6.6% ✅ -0.3pp - a fresh series-period low.
• LAR Coverage (incl. off B/S, bank-only): 71.2% (Jun 2024) vs Mar 2024's 71.9% ⚠️ -0.7pp - a slight easing after several quarters of improvement.

The coverage-ratio gap this series has tracked since 2021 - Provision/NPL coverage minus LAR Coverage - narrowed sharply to 119.0 percentage points (190.2% minus 71.2%), down from Mar 2024's 148.4pp, the fastest single-quarter narrowing this series has recorded, driven almost entirely by Provision/NPL coverage's 30.1pp drop rather than any deterioration in the broader LAR-based measure. Seasonally, Q2 tends to be a stronger consumption quarter for BCA's consumer lending book (mid-year Ramadan/Eid spending), which is consistent with the quarter's healthier NIM and cost-of-credit readings even as the point-in-time NPL ratio ticked up - the two trends aren't contradictory, since NPL formation and current-quarter consumption strength operate on different timelines.

Segment Performance

BCA continues reporting four lending lines on a fully separated basis (consolidated, per this quarter's investor presentation): Corporate, Commercial, SME, and Consumer.

Corporate

Corporate loans reached Rp388.6 trillion (Jun 2024), up 19.9% year-over-year but essentially flat quarter-over-quarter (-0.1%) after Q1 2024's 5.6% QoQ acceleration - the segment handed the quarter's growth momentum to the other three segments this time. Its share of the four-segment total eased slightly to 45.7% from Mar 2024's 46.6%. Within Corporate, investment loans kept gaining share of the mix - 64% of Corporate loans at Jun 2024, up from 58% two years earlier - with investment-loan facilities reaching Rp309 trillion (+20.9% YoY, 80% utilization) against working-capital facilities of Rp168 trillion (+17.3% YoY, 55% utilization, stable for five straight quarters). The annual incremental volume behind this - Rp70 trillion added over the trailing twelve months - is roughly 5x the year-ago pace, the single most dramatic growth figure in this quarter's disclosures, even as the quarter-on-quarter loan balance itself barely moved.

Commercial

Commercial loans reached Rp127.8 trillion (Jun 2024), up 7.9% year-over-year and 2.1% quarter-over-quarter - reversing Q1 2024's -1.3% QoQ contraction, which this series flagged at the time as the segment's first quarterly contraction since it began being reported separately from SME. One quarter of renewed growth is consistent with the earlier read that Q1's dip was single-quarter lumpiness rather than a genuine reversal in a segment with fewer, larger-ticket loans.

SME

SME loans reached Rp114.4 trillion (Jun 2024), up 12.7% year-over-year and 3.7% quarter-over-quarter - continuing to outpace the broader industry, which BCA's own disclosures put at roughly 4.5% YoY growth (ex-micro, as of Apr 2024) for the same segment.

Consumer

Consumer loans reached Rp210.2 trillion (Jun 2024), up 13.6% year-over-year and 3.7% quarter-over-quarter - an acceleration from Q1 2024's 1.8% QoQ, consistent with Q2 typically being a stronger consumption quarter around the mid-year Ramadan/Eid cycle. Within Consumer, mortgages grew to Rp126.9 trillion (+3.6% QoQ, +10.8% YoY) and vehicle lending to Rp62.1 trillion (+4.0% QoQ, +18.4% YoY) - vehicle lending's YoY pace decelerated from Q1 2024's 22.2% but still comfortably outpaced mortgage growth, continuing the multi-quarter pattern of vehicle loans compounding faster than the home-loan book.

Segment Comparison

Segment	Jun 2024 (Rp tn)	Jun 2023 (Rp tn)	YoY	Mar 2024 (Rp tn)	QoQ	Share (Jun 2024)
Corporate	388.6	324.1	✅ +19.9%	389.2	⚠️ -0.1%	45.7%
Commercial	127.8	118.4	✅ +7.9%	125.2	✅ +2.1%	15.8%
SME	114.4	101.5	✅ +12.7%	110.4	✅ +3.7%	13.7%
Consumer	210.2	185.0	✅ +13.6%	201.6	✅ +3.7%	24.8%
Total (four segments, consolidated)	841.0	729.1	✅ +15.3%	826.4	✅ +1.8%	100.0%

Jun 2023 per-segment figures are implied from this quarter's own disclosed YoY growth rates, since BCA's presentation only tabulates the Dec 2023 and Jun 2024 balances directly.

Three of four segments grew both YoY and QoQ this quarter; Corporate is the exception, growing YoY but essentially flat QoQ - a reversal of Q1 2024's pattern, where Corporate was the fastest-accelerating segment and Commercial was the one breaking from simultaneous growth. Read together, the two quarters suggest BCA's four segments are taking turns carrying the consolidated growth number rather than all compounding at a constant pace simultaneously - worth watching whether Q3 sees Corporate reassert itself or the baton stays with Commercial/SME/Consumer.

Beyond the Usual

This quarter's downloaded documents are the unaudited consolidated interim financial statements and the investor presentation - narrower footnote coverage than an annual report provides, since deeper disclosures (full related-party detail, lease schedules) typically appear only in BCA's audited annual filing. The findings below come from what the interim statements do disclose: the restructured-loan note, the joint-financing note, and the appropriation-of-net-income note.

The Restructured Book's Worst Tier Kept Climbing After the Relaxation Ended, and Coverage Fell With It

The restructured loan book's worst collectability tier (Substandard + Doubtful + Loss, bank-only) rose to Rp12,249,571 million as of 30 June 2024, up from Mar 2024's Rp11,066,229 million (+10.7% QoQ) and Dec 2023's Rp10,702,901 million (+14.5% over two quarters) - a second straight quarterly increase since the OJK's Covid-era restructuring relaxation formally ended 31 March 2024. The total restructured book kept shrinking over the same period, down to Rp33,146,097 million from Mar 2024's Rp36,051,884 million (-8.1% QoQ) and Dec 2023's Rp40,581,823 million (-18.3% over two quarters) - consistent with fewer loans entering restructuring under the harder post-relaxation criteria, while the loans that remain on the book keep migrating toward non-performing status. This same-direction pressure shows up in the headline bank-only NPL ratio too, which rose from 1.9% to 2.2% this quarter, and in NPL Coverage, which fell 30.1 percentage points (220.3% to 190.2%) - the largest single-quarter coverage decline this series has recorded. None of these moves individually points to a credit-quality crisis at BCA's scale, but together they mark the first quarter where the relaxation's expiry is visible in headline ratios rather than just a restructured-loan footnote, and are worth tracking specifically into Q3 2024 to see whether the pace continues or stabilizes.

BCA's FY2023 dividend - the Rp28,045,074 million accrual Q1 2024's post traced to the equity and CAR moves that quarter - was in fact only the second and larger of two tranches. The Annual General Meeting held 14 March 2024 approved a total FY2023 cash dividend of Rp33,284,264 million (Rp270 per share), of which Rp5,239,190 million had already been paid as an interim dividend on 20 December 2023, with the remaining Rp28,045,074 million paid as the final tranche on 4 April 2024. The two-tranche structure - an interim payout inside the fiscal year itself, followed by a final payout early the next year - is BCA's recurring dividend mechanism rather than a one-off arrangement, and explains why the equity-statement hit this series has tracked each Q1 is only ever the second, larger installment rather than the shareholders' entire annual payout.

BCA's bank portion of joint vehicle-financing receivables with its two financing subsidiaries, PT BCA Finance and PT BCA Multi Finance, grew to Rp51,312,395 million as of 30 June 2024, up from Dec 2023's Rp46,927,073 million (+9.3% YTD). Under these joint-financing agreements the Bank and its subsidiaries share financing risk proportionally and without recourse between them - a structural detail that means growth in BCA's vehicle-loan book (see Consumer above) is running partly through a risk-sharing arrangement with its own subsidiaries rather than solely on the Bank's own book.

BCA disclosed that its two automotive-financing subsidiaries, PT BCA Finance (four-wheeler focus) and PT BCA Multi Finance (two-wheeler focus), are merging, with OJK approval already granted and the merger's effective date expected in September 2024; PT BCA Finance will be the surviving entity. This is a corporate-structure simplification rather than a change in what the combined entity does - both subsidiaries already fed into the same joint-financing arrangement with the Bank noted above - but it's the kind of subsidiary-level consolidation worth tracking into the quarter it actually takes effect.

Coverage Table

Metric	Jun 2024	Mar 2024	QoQ	Why it matters
Consolidated Loans (incl. sharia)	~Rp849.8tn	~Rp835.7tn	✅ +1.7% (15.5% YoY)	Continued record-pace loan growth
NPL ratio (bank-only, gross)	2.2%	1.9%	⚠️ +0.3pp	First headline NPL move tied to Covid-relief expiry
NPL Coverage (bank-only)	190.2%	220.3%	⚠️ -30.1pp	Largest single-quarter drop this series has recorded
CAR (bank-only)	27.8%	26.3%	✅ +1.5pp	Partial mechanical recovery from Q1's dividend accrual
Total Equity (attributable to owners)	Rp240.7tn	Rp227.2tn	✅ +6.0%	Same mechanism unwinding in reverse
Commercial loans (consolidated, QoQ)	+2.1%	-1.3% (prior quarter)	✅ Reversed	Q1's one-quarter contraction didn't persist
Net Income (attributable to owners, standalone Q)	Rp13,996.7bn	Rp12,879.5bn	✅ +8.7%	Fastest sequential quarterly gain since Q2 2022

Target Valuation Range

P/E of ~23.8x and P/B of ~5.08x - BCA looks fairly valued to modestly expensive here - both trailing P/E and P/B eased slightly this quarter as the share price dipped a touch and book value per share recovered, unwinding some of Q1's mechanical valuation inflation, but neither multiple is cheap for a bank whose NPL ratio and coverage just moved against it for the first time in this series' recent quarters.

BCA's shares closed at Rp9,925 on June 28, 2024 (the last trading day of the quarter), down 1.5% from Mar 2024's Rp10,075 close but up 5.6% year-to-date from Dec 2023's Rp9,400, and up 8.5% year-over-year from Jun 2023's Rp9,150. Over the trailing two years, shares are up 36.9% from Jun 2022's Rp7,250 close - a window whose peak-to-trough swing (Jun 2022's Rp7,250 low to Mar 2024's Rp10,075 high, roughly 39.0%) still clears the threshold this series uses to justify a dedicated section, consistent with Q1 2024's own 39.0% swing. This quarter's own price move was modest and directionless relative to the broader two-year run - a pullback from Q1's fresh high rather than a new signal - and doesn't point to any fresh catalyst beyond ordinary quarter-to-quarter price movement. BCA's last stock split (1:5) took effect 13 October 2021, before this two-year window begins, so no further split adjustment applies to these prices.

• P/E^»: ~23.8x, using the trailing four quarters' net profit (Rp12,230.2bn + Rp12,218.7bn + Rp12,879.5bn + Rp13,996.7bn = Rp51,325.1bn, Q3 2023 through Q2 2024) against the Rp9,925 close and 123,275,050,000 shares outstanding - down from Mar 2024's ~24.8x, as trailing-four-quarter EPS growth outpaced the 1.5% QoQ price decline.
• P/B^»: ~5.08x, using book value per share of Rp1,952 (total equity attributable to owners, Rp240,679,250 million, divided by 123,275,050,000 shares) - down from Mar 2024's ~5.47x, as book value per share recovered 6.0% QoQ on the post-dividend equity rebuild even as the share price eased slightly. This is the mirror image of Q1's P/B inflation - Q1's multiple was overstated by a temporary equity shrinkage, and this quarter's decline partly just corrects that, rather than reflecting a genuine re-rating down.

Market cap → book value	Q2 2024
Share price (period-end)	Rp9,925
Shares outstanding	123,275,050,000
Market capitalization	Rp1,223,505B (~$74.73B)
Book value (equity attributable to owners)	Rp240,679B (~$14.70B)
P/B»	~5.08x

P/E and P/B (TTM basis)	Q1 2024	Q2 2024	Change
EPS (TTM)	Rp405.5	Rp416.3	✅ up
P/E»	~24.8x	~23.8x	✅ down
Book value per share	Rp1,843	Rp1,952	✅ up
P/B»	~5.47x	~5.08x	✅ down

A full DCF still isn't attempted here, for the same reason as every prior post in this series - BCA's durable growth rate is easier to describe qualitatively (CASA-funded, broad-based double-digit loan growth) than to pin to a single confident multi-year cash-flow forecast. The peer-multiple comparison this section would normally lean on also isn't available yet, since no other IDX bank in this backlog has a post covering the same June 2024 quarter. At ~23.8x trailing earnings and ~5.1x book for a bank still growing loans in the mid-teens annually, BCA isn't obviously overpriced on earnings alone, but a reader should weigh this quarter's NPL and coverage moves (see Beyond the Usual) against the multiple before treating ~5.1x book as comfortably justified by asset quality alone.

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