The NPL Ratio Calms Down, But Provisioning Doesn't Agree
Two straight quarters after the OJK's Covid-era restructuring relaxation formally ended, Q2 2024's post flagged the first headline sign that the relief window's expiry was showing up in BCA's own numbers: the bank-only NPL ratio» rose to 2.2% and NPL Coverage» fell 30.1 percentage points in a single quarter, the sharpest move either ratio had made in this series. This quarter, both of those specific moves partially unwound: the bank-only NPL ratio eased back to 2.1%, and NPL Coverage recovered 3.7 percentage points to 193.9%. The restructured loan book's worst collectability tier - which had grown for two straight quarters after the relaxation ended - actually shrank 3.5% quarter-over-quarter, the first decline since the relief rules expired.
That's the reassuring read. It isn't the only one available in this quarter's numbers. Provisioning expense (Provision incl. Loan Recoveries, consolidated) jumped from Rp0.5 trillion in Q2 to Rp1.0 trillion in Q3 - an 85.1% quarter-over-quarter increase - and bank-only cost of credit rose from 0.2% to 0.6% over the same period, even as the point-in-time NPL ratio was improving. And within the NPL total, the mix has been quietly shifting: Consumer's share of consolidated NPL climbed from 18.8% a year ago to 22.2% this quarter, while Corporate's share fell from 45.8% to 36.5% - the composition of BCA's bad loans is moving toward the segment retail investors think of as "safer," even while the headline ratio looks calmer. Net income attributable to owners still grew a healthy 12.8% YoY to Rp41,073,863 million on record consolidated loan growth of 14.5% YoY, so this isn't a quarter of financial stress by any conventional measure - but a reader who only tracked the headline NPL ratio down 0.1 percentage point would miss both of these threads entirely.
The Prescription
BCA's four-segment lending engine keeps compounding broadly and evenly - Corporate, Commercial, SME, and Consumer all grew loans both year-over-year and quarter-over-quarter again this quarter, with Corporate specifically reaccelerating from H1's near-flat pace - and the bank should keep leaning into that diversification rather than letting any single segment (Corporate's investment-loan book, in particular, now 64% of Corporate loans and still growing) become the story investors focus on. What it should stop doing is presenting the NPL ratio's quarter-over-quarter improvement as if it closes the credit-quality question Q2's post opened. A ratio moving from 2.2% to 2.1% while provisioning nearly doubles quarter-over-quarter and the NPL mix keeps shifting toward Consumer isn't a closed chapter - it's the same chapter with a calmer headline number. BCA's own investor deck presents cost of credit and NPL ratio as separate line items in the same table without connecting them; a bank whose core pitch is disclosure quality should make that connection explicit rather than leaving it for a reader to notice the two numbers are moving in opposite directions in the same quarter.
Key Financial Metrics
9M 2024 vs. 9M 2023 (P&L, consolidated unaudited interim figures, nine months ended 30 September), and 30 September 2024 vs. 31 December 2023 (balance sheet, consolidated unaudited/audited)
FX: IDR 15,140.0 = USD 1 (30 September 2024, per BCA's own filed financial statements' Reuters middle-rate disclosure) - a 1.7% Rupiah appreciation from Dec 2023's Rp15,397.0, reversing most of Jun 2024's Rp16,375.0 depreciation.
| Metric | 9M 2024 (IDR) | 9M 2024 (USD) | 9M 2023 (IDR) | YoY |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net Interest Income (+ sharia) | Rp60,932,771M | ~$4,024.4M | Rp55,584,524M | ✅ +9.6% |
| Non-interest income (gross) | Rp19,604,033M | ~$1,295.0M | Rp17,220,428M | ✅ +13.8% |
| Net Revenue (Operating Income, NII + non-interest) | Rp80,536,804M | ~$5,319.5M | Rp72,804,952M | ✅ +10.6% |
| Operating Income (PPOP, consolidated) | Rp53,213,343M | ~$3,514.7M | Rp46,488,206M | ✅ +14.5% |
| Net Income (attributable to owners) | Rp41,073,863M | ~$2,712.9M | Rp36,420,377M | ✅ +12.8% |
| EPS (nine-month, consolidated) | Rp333 | ~$0.022 | Rp295 | ✅ +12.9% |
A bank has no Adjusted EBITDA or free cash flow, per this series' convention for deposit-taking institutions.
Impairment losses on assets rose 60.2% YoY (Rp1,478,033M to Rp2,367,089M) - the fastest such increase this series has recorded for a nine-month figure - almost entirely a Q3-specific move: H1 2024's post already had impairment losses up 13.1% YoY for the half, meaning Q3 alone drove most of this quarter's acceleration. Standalone Q3 net profit rose to Rp14,197,679 million, up 1.4% quarter-over-quarter from Q2's Rp13,996,698 million - a much smaller sequential gain than Q2's own 8.7% QoQ jump, consistent with PPOP growth (+4.9% QoQ) barely outrunning the quarter's near-doubling of provisioning expense.
| Balance sheet metric | Sep 2024 (IDR) | Sep 2024 (USD) | Dec 2023 (IDR) | YTD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total Assets | Rp1,433,701,780M | ~$94.70B | Rp1,408,107,010M | ✅ +1.8% |
| Third Party Funds (deposits, incl. sharia)* | ~Rp1,125,000,000M | ~$74.31B | ~Rp1,101,700,000M | ✅ +2.1% |
| CASA» (demand + savings deposits)* | ~Rp915,000,000M | ~$60.44B | ~Rp884,600,000M | ✅ +3.4% |
| Total Loans (outstanding, incl. sharia)* | ~Rp877,200,000M | ~$57.94B | ~Rp810,400,000M | ✅ +8.2% |
| Total Equity (attributable to owners) | Rp255,765,346M | ~$16.89B | Rp242,356,256M | ✅ +5.5% |
*Third Party Funds, CASA, and Total Loans per BCA's own investor presentation (consolidated, including sharia financing), the same sourcing convention used since Sep 2019's post.
Total equity attributable to owners grew 6.3% quarter-over-quarter in Q3 alone (Rp240,679,250M to Rp255,765,346M), continuing Q2's recovery from Q1's dividend-driven drawdown - equity is now 5.5% above Dec 2023's pre-dividend base, having fully absorbed the FY2023 dividend and compounded past it on retained Q3 earnings. Operating cash flow for the nine months was Rp74,182,993M (~$4,899.7M), up 62.2% from 9M 2023's Rp45,749,034M, as a large reverse-repo/securities maturity inflow more than offset heavier loan disbursement. Capital expenditure on fixed assets (Rp1,858,948M) and right-of-use assets (Rp514,927M) remained a small fraction of operating cash flow, as is typical for a bank whose cash flow is dominated by loan and deposit movements rather than capex. Cash and cash equivalents closed the period at Rp102,859,512M (~$6,793.4M), down 17.2% from Dec 2023's Rp124,395,987M and down 26.1% from Sep 2023's Rp139,191,182M, reflecting a larger net cash outflow into investment securities purchases (Rp177,437,484M this period vs Rp124,230,567M a year ago).
Key Operational Metrics
Bank-only unless noted, from BCA's own investor presentation and financial-ratio disclosures:
- CASA to Total Funding: 82.2% (Sep 2024) vs Jun 2024's 82.2% - unchanged for a second straight quarter.
- LDR»: 75.1% (Q3 2024, quarterly) vs Q2 2024's 72.7% ⚠️ +2.4pp - a sixth straight quarter of rising loan-to-deposit pressure as loan growth continues to outpace deposit growth.
- NIM»: 5.9% (Q3 2024, quarterly) vs Q2 2024's 5.8% ✅ +0.1pp - a second straight quarter of improvement.
- ROA»: 4.0% (Q3 2024, quarterly) vs 4.1% (Q2 2024) ⚠️ -0.1pp.
- ROE»: 24.6% (Q3 2024, quarterly) vs 26.9% (Q2 2024) ⚠️ -2.3pp - the growing equity base (see above) is diluting ROE even as absolute earnings keep growing.
- CAR» (bank-only): 29.3% (9M 2024) vs Jun 2024's 27.8% ✅ +1.5pp - within 0.1pp of Dec 2023's pre-dividend 29.4% level, all but closing the capital drawdown Q1 2024's post traced to the FY2023 dividend accrual.
- NPL ratio - gross (bank-only, point-in-time): 2.1% (30 Sep 2024) vs 2.2% (30 Jun 2024) ✅ -0.1pp - see Beyond the Usual for why this improvement isn't the whole picture.
- NPL Coverage (Provision/NPL, bank-only): 193.9% (Sep 2024) vs Jun 2024's 190.2% ✅ +3.7pp - a partial recovery from Q2's record single-quarter drop, still 32.6pp below Sep 2023's 226.5%.
- Cost-to-Income Ratio»: 30.1% (Q3 2024, quarterly) vs 29.1% (Q2 2024) ⚠️ +1.0pp.
- Cost of credit (bank-only): 0.6% (Q3 2024) vs 0.2% (Q2 2024) ⚠️ +0.4pp - the provisioning jump discussed above.
- Loan at Risk» (consolidated, includes on & off-balance-sheet): 5.9% (Sep 2024) vs Jun 2024's 6.3% ✅ -0.4pp - a fresh series-period low.
- LAR Coverage (incl. off B/S, bank-only): 73.5% (Sep 2024) vs Jun 2024's 71.2% ✅ +2.3pp.
The coverage-ratio gap this series has tracked since 2021 - Provision/NPL coverage minus LAR Coverage - widened slightly to 120.4 percentage points (193.9% minus 73.5%), up from Jun 2024's 119.0pp, as NPL Coverage's own 3.7pp recovery this quarter slightly outpaced LAR Coverage's 2.3pp gain. Seasonally, Q3 tends to be a quieter quarter for BCA's consumer lending book after Q2's mid-year Ramadan/Eid consumption peak, which is broadly consistent with ROA/ROE both easing slightly even as NIM kept improving - a normalization after Q2's seasonal strength rather than a fresh deterioration.
Segment Performance
BCA continues reporting four lending lines on a fully separated basis (consolidated, per this quarter's investor presentation): Corporate, Commercial, SME, and Consumer.
Corporate
Corporate loans reached Rp395.9 trillion (Sep 2024), up 15.9% year-over-year and 1.8% quarter-over-quarter - a reacceleration from Jun 2024's essentially flat -0.1% QoQ, handing growth momentum back to the segment that had sat out most of H1 2024. Within Corporate, investment loans held their 64% share of the segment (facilities of Rp307 trillion, +14.3% YoY, 83% utilization) against working-capital facilities of Rp160 trillion (+10.2% YoY, 57% utilization) - both utilization rates trending up, a sign of genuine drawdown demand rather than idle facility growth.
Commercial
Commercial loans reached Rp135.3 trillion (Sep 2024), up 11.8% year-over-year and 6.1% quarter-over-quarter - the fastest QoQ pace of the four segments this quarter, extending Jun 2024's own reversal of Q1's one-quarter contraction into genuine sustained growth.
SME
SME loans reached Rp120.1 trillion (Sep 2024), up 14.2% year-over-year and 5.0% quarter-over-quarter, continuing to outpace industry SME lending growth, which BCA's own disclosures put at roughly 4.1% YoY (ex-micro, as of Jul 2024) for the same segment - a gap that has held for at least five straight quarters.
Consumer
Consumer loans reached Rp216.5 trillion (Sep 2024), up 13.1% year-over-year and 2.9% quarter-over-quarter - a slight deceleration from Jun 2024's 3.7% QoQ, consistent with Q3 typically being a quieter consumption quarter after Q2's Ramadan/Eid seasonal peak. Within Consumer, mortgages grew to Rp130.4 trillion (+2.7% QoQ, +10.7% YoY) and vehicle lending to Rp64.1 trillion (+3.2% QoQ, +17.9% YoY) - vehicle lending continuing to compound faster than the mortgage book, a pattern that has held every quarter this series has tracked since the segments were first split. Sharia financing, while still the smallest reported line at Rp10.4 trillion, grew the fastest of any segment or sub-segment this quarter at +32.9% YoY.
Segment Comparison
| Segment | Sep 2024 (Rp tn) | Sep 2023 (Rp tn) | YoY | Jun 2024 (Rp tn) | QoQ | Share (Sep 2024) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Corporate | 395.9 | 341.6 | ✅ +15.9% | 388.9 | ✅ +1.8% | 45.6% |
| Commercial | 135.3 | 121.0 | ✅ +11.8% | 127.5 | ✅ +6.1% | 15.6% |
| SME | 120.1 | 105.2 | ✅ +14.2% | 114.4 | ✅ +5.0% | 13.8% |
| Consumer | 216.5 | 191.4 | ✅ +13.1% | 210.4 | ✅ +2.9% | 24.9% |
| Total (four segments, consolidated) | 867.8 | 759.2 | ✅ +14.3% | 841.2 | ✅ +3.2% | 100.0% |
Sep 2023 and Jun 2024 per-segment figures are implied from BCA's own disclosed YoY/QoQ growth rates for each segment this quarter, since BCA's presentation only tabulates the Dec 2023 and Sep 2024 balances directly.
All four segments grew both year-over-year and quarter-over-quarter simultaneously for a fourth straight quarter - a streak that now spans every quarter since Q4 2023. Unlike Jun 2024, where Corporate was the lone segment sitting out QoQ growth, every segment contributed genuine sequential growth this quarter, with Commercial's 6.1% QoQ pace the standout.
Beyond the Usual
This quarter's downloaded documents are the unaudited consolidated interim financial statements and the investor presentation - narrower footnote coverage than an annual report provides, since deeper disclosures (full related-party detail, lease schedules) typically appear only in BCA's audited annual filing. The findings below come from what the interim statements do disclose: the restructured-loan note, the impairment-allowance movement note, the commitments-and-contingencies note, and the related-party transactions note.
Provisioning Nearly Doubled Quarter-Over-Quarter Even As the Point-in-Time NPL Ratio Improved
Consolidated provisioning expense (Provision incl. Loan Recoveries, per BCA's own investor presentation) rose from Rp0.5 trillion in Q2 2024 to Rp1.0 trillion in Q3 2024 - an 85.1% quarter-over-quarter increase - and bank-only cost of credit rose from 0.2% to 0.6% over the same period. This happened in the same quarter the bank-only NPL ratio eased from 2.2% to 2.1% and the restructured loan book's worst collectability tier shrank 3.5% QoQ (see below) - two indicators moving in the improving direction while the cost actually charged against earnings moved the opposite way. BCA's own disclosures don't reconcile these two signals for a reader; a forward-looking provisioning build ahead of expected deterioration and a lagging catch-up charge against loans that already soured look identical in this table, and only the next quarter or two of NPL formation will show which one this was.
Consumer's Share of Total NPL Kept Rising Even As the Headline Ratio Held Flat
BCA's own NPL-by-segment breakdown shows Consumer's share of consolidated non-performing loans climbing every single quarter for the past year: 18.8% at Sep 2023, 19.7% at Dec 2023, 21.3% at Mar 2024, 21.8% at Jun 2024, and 22.2% at Sep 2024. Corporate's share moved the opposite direction over the same five quarters - 45.8%, 47.5%, 44.2%, 38.2%, and 36.5% - a genuine four-quarter reversal rather than a one-off swing. The consolidated NPL ratio has barely moved across this period (2.1%-2.2% throughout), but the underlying mix has shifted meaningfully: a larger and growing share of BCA's problem loans now sits in the segment (Consumer) that management and investors alike typically treat as the least risky, funded by the bank's cheapest deposits. This isn't yet a concern at BCA's absolute scale, but it's worth tracking whether the mix shift continues into a segment where loss-given-default dynamics (unsecured personal loans, vehicle repossession recovery rates) differ meaningfully from Corporate's.
The Restructured Loan Book's Worst Tier Shrank for the First Time Since the Relief Rules Expired
BCA's total restructured loan book (bank-only) fell to Rp32,448,214 million as of 30 September 2024, down 20.0% from Dec 2023's Rp40,581,823 million - continuing the steady shrinkage this series has tracked since the relaxation formally ended 31 March 2024. More notably, the book's worst collectability tier (Sub-standard + Doubtful + Loss, now classified as restructured-and-NPL) fell to Rp11,819,601 million, down 3.5% quarter-over-quarter from Jun 2024's Rp12,249,571 million - the first quarterly decline in this specific figure since the relaxation ended, reversing the two straight quarterly increases Q1 and Q2 2024 both flagged. Within the remaining book, however, the mix kept skewing worse: the "Current" tier collapsed 39.4% YTD (Rp21,392,020M to Rp12,963,941M) while the "Loss" tier grew 31.5% YTD (Rp8,532,659M to Rp11,224,529M) - the shrinking book is increasingly just what's left after the better-quality restructured loans have already migrated out or been resolved, not evidence the remaining exposure itself is healthier.
The BCA Finance / BCA Multi Finance Merger Took Effect September 1, 2024
BCA's two automotive-financing subsidiaries, flagged as merging in Q2 2024's post, completed the merger via a deed dated 1 September 2024, with PT BCA Finance as the surviving entity and PT BCA Multi Finance's operations folded in. The merged entity's post-combination share capital is structured at 103,872,044 shares held by the Bank directly and 424,075 shares held through BCA Finance Limited (the Hong Kong subsidiary) - a subsidiary-level consolidation rather than any change to what the combined financing business actually does, consistent with both entities already sharing a joint vehicle-financing arrangement with the Bank before the merger.
A Related-Party Pension Contribution Is Shrinking as a Share of Total Pension Cost
BCA's total pension plan contribution (bank-only, part of personnel expense) rose to Rp421,620 million for the nine months, up from Rp375,435 million a year ago - but the portion of that contribution paid to Dana Pensiun BCA, the Bank's own related-party pension foundation, fell to Rp242,265 million (57.46% of the total) from Rp322,888 million (86.00% of the total) a year earlier. In absolute terms the related-party contribution dropped even as the overall pension bill grew, meaning a rising share of BCA's pension funding is now going somewhere other than its own foundation - a genuinely interesting shift in how the Bank funds retirement benefits that isn't explained further in the interim notes, though it isn't disclosed as a governance concern either.
Coverage Table
| Metric | Sep 2024 | Jun 2024 | QoQ | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Consolidated Loans (incl. sharia) | ~Rp877.2tn | ~Rp849.8tn | ✅ +3.2% (14.5% YoY) | Loan growth kept accelerating on a QoQ basis |
| NPL ratio (bank-only, gross) | 2.1% | 2.2% | ✅ -0.1pp | Headline improvement, but see Beyond the Usual |
| Cost of credit (bank-only) | 0.6% | 0.2% | ⚠️ +0.4pp | Provisioning nearly doubled in the same quarter NPL improved |
| Restructured book's worst tier (bank-only) | Rp11.8tn | Rp12.2tn | ✅ -3.5% | First decline since the Covid-relief rules expired |
| CAR (bank-only) | 29.3% | 27.8% | ✅ +1.5pp | Within 0.1pp of Dec 2023's pre-dividend level |
| Total Equity (attributable to owners) | Rp255.8tn | Rp240.7tn | ✅ +6.3% | Continued post-dividend rebuild on retained earnings |
| Consumer's share of consolidated NPL | 22.2% | 21.8% | ⚠️ +0.4pp | Fourth straight quarter of the mix shifting toward Consumer |
Target Valuation Range
P/E of ~23.9x and P/B of ~4.98x - BCA looks fully, not cheaply, valued here - both trailing P/E and P/B are essentially flat against last quarter, with book value growing in step with the share price, leaving the multiple neither a bargain nor obviously stretched, but not offering a margin of safety against this quarter's provisioning jump either.
BCA's shares closed at Rp10,325 on 30 September 2024 (the last trading day of the quarter), up 4.0% from Jun 2024's Rp9,925 close and up 9.8% year-to-date from Dec 2023's Rp9,400. Over the trailing two years, shares are up 20.8% from Sep 2022's Rp8,550 close, with a peak-to-trough range over that window running from Jan 2023's Rp8,475 low to this quarter's own Rp10,325 high - a swing of roughly 21.8%, below the threshold this series uses to justify a dedicated price section, so the move is folded into valuation here rather than given its own heading. BCA's last stock split (1:5) took effect 13 October 2021, well before this two-year window begins, so no further split adjustment applies to these prices.
- P/E»: ~23.9x, using the trailing four quarters' net profit attributable to owners (Rp12,218.7bn + Rp12,879.5bn + Rp13,996.7bn + Rp14,197.7bn = Rp53,292.6bn, Q4 2023 through Q3 2024) against the Rp10,325 close and 123,275,050,000 shares outstanding - essentially flat from Jun 2024's ~23.8x, as trailing-four-quarter earnings growth roughly matched the quarter's 4.0% price gain.
- P/B»: ~4.98x, using book value per share of Rp2,075 (total equity attributable to owners, Rp255,765,346 million, divided by 123,275,050,000 shares) - down slightly from Jun 2024's ~5.08x, as book value per share grew 6.3% QoQ, outpacing the share price's own 4.0% gain.
| Market cap → book value | Q3 2024 |
|---|---|
| Share price (period-end) | Rp10,325 |
| Shares outstanding | 123,275,050,000 |
| Market capitalization | Rp1,272,815B (~$84.06B) |
| Book value (equity attributable to owners) | Rp255,765B (~$16.89B) |
| P/B» | ~4.98x |
| P/E and P/B (TTM basis) | Q2 2024 | Q3 2024 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| EPS (TTM) | Rp416.3 | Rp432.3 | ✅ up |
| P/E» | ~23.8x | ~23.9x | ⚠️ up (roughly flat) |
| Book value per share | Rp1,952 | Rp2,075 | ✅ up |
| P/B» | ~5.08x | ~4.98x | ✅ down |
A full DCF still isn't attempted here, for the same reason as every prior post in this series - BCA's durable growth rate is easier to describe qualitatively (CASA-funded, broad-based double-digit loan growth across four simultaneously-growing segments) than to pin to a single confident multi-year cash-flow forecast. The peer-multiple comparison this section would normally lean on also isn't available yet, since no other IDX bank in this backlog has a post covering the same September 2024 quarter. At ~23.9x trailing earnings and ~5.0x book for a bank still growing loans in the mid-teens annually, BCA isn't obviously overpriced on earnings alone, but a reader should weigh this quarter's provisioning jump and Consumer NPL-mix shift (see Beyond the Usual) against a multiple that already prices in a fairly clean credit story.
PT Bank Central Asia Tbk & Entitas Anak's unaudited consolidated interim financial statements as of and for the nine-month periods ended 30 September 2024 and 2023, including the statements of financial position, profit or loss and other comprehensive income, changes in equity, and cash flows, and the accompanying notes covering loans receivable, restructured loans, allowance for impairment losses, estimated losses from commitments and contingencies, related-party transactions, employee benefits, and operating segments; and BCA's corporate presentation for the 9M24 analysts' meeting.