BBCA Why Did the Capital Ratio Just Fall Off a Cliff?

The Dividend Bill Comes Due

BCA opened 2024 with the fastest consolidated loan growth this series has recorded for the bank: 17.1% year-over-year, taking the loan book to Rp835.7 trillion, with Corporate lending alone up 22.1% YoY. Net income attributable to owners rose 11.7% YoY to Rp12,879,486 million, and PPOP^» grew a healthy 8.0% YoY. On the headline growth numbers, this looks like an unremarkable continuation of FY2023's strong finish.

But two numbers below the headline tell a less tidy story. Bank-only CAR^» fell from 29.4% at Dec 2023 to 26.3% at Mar 2024 - a 3.1 percentage point drop in a single quarter, the largest move this series has recorded for this ratio. And equity attributable to owners fell 6.3% quarter-over-quarter, from Rp242,356,256 million to Rp227,161,854 million, despite the bank earning nearly Rp12.9 trillion in net income over the same three months. Both moves trace to the same cause: BCA's filed statements disclose a Rp28,045,074 million provision from retained earnings for the FY2023 final dividend, recognised in Q1 ahead of the actual cash payout later in the year. This is a routine annual mechanism tied to BCA's shareholder-meeting calendar, not a credit or earnings problem - the same pattern shows up in the Mar 2023 comparative column (a Rp20,956,758 million dividend accrual that year) - but it means a reader looking only at the quarter's CAR or equity trend without this context would draw the wrong conclusion about the bank's underlying strength.

The quarter's other structural marker is regulatory rather than financial: the OJK's COVID-era targeted credit-restructuring relaxation policy, extended repeatedly since 2021, formally ended on 31 March 2024. See Beyond the Usual for what that coincided with in the restructured loan book.

The Prescription

BCA's core engine - CASA^»-funded lending growing across every segment, now compounding at the fastest pace this series has tracked - remains the strongest domestic-bank franchise in this coverage, and it should keep leaning into Corporate lending specifically: a 22.1% YoY growth rate in the segment least exposed to retail credit risk is exactly the kind of growth a well-capitalized bank should chase. What it should stop doing is disclosing a capital-ratio or equity move of this size (a 3.1 percentage-point CAR drop, a 6.3% equity decline) without a same-page explanation in the investor presentation - the dividend mechanics are buried in a cash-flow-statement footnote of the audited filing, not flagged anywhere in the deck a typical reader or analyst actually works from. A bank whose entire investor pitch rests on capital strength and disclosure quality shouldn't require cross-referencing two separate documents just to confirm that a sharp capital-ratio move is a scheduled shareholder payout rather than a warning sign.

Key Financial Metrics

Q1 2024 vs. Q1 2023 (P&L, consolidated unaudited interim figures), and 31 March 2024 vs. 31 December 2023 (balance sheet, consolidated unaudited/audited)

FX: IDR 15,855.0 = USD 1 (31 March 2024, per BCA's own filed financial statements' Reuters middle-rate disclosure) - a 3.0% Rupiah depreciation from Dec 2023's Rp15,397.0.

Metric	Q1 2024 (IDR)	Q1 2024 (USD)	Q1 2023 (IDR)	YoY
Net Interest Income (+ sharia)	Rp19,822,690M	~$1,250.4M	Rp18,482,049M	✅ +7.3%
Non-interest income (gross)	Rp6,590,093M	~$415.7M	Rp6,196,217M	✅ +6.4%
Net Revenue (Operating Income, NII + non-interest)	Rp26,412,783M	~$1,666.1M	Rp24,678,266M	✅ +7.0%
Operating Income (PPOP, consolidated)	Rp16,939,858M	~$1,068.4M	Rp15,679,908M	✅ +8.0%
Net Income (attributable to owners)	Rp12,879,486M	~$812.4M	Rp11,529,784M	✅ +11.7%
EPS (quarterly, consolidated)	Rp104	~$0.0066	Rp94	✅ +10.6%

Net income's 11.7% YoY growth again outran PPOP's 8.0%, though by a narrower margin than most of 2023 - impairment losses fell a more modest 29.8% YoY (Rp1,460,234M to Rp1,024,829M) rather than the roughly 50% pullback that drove full-year 2023's gap. Standalone quarterly net profit has been essentially flat for three straight quarters - Rp12,660bn (Q2 2023), Rp12,230bn (Q3 2023), Rp12,219bn (Q4 2023) - before this quarter's step back up to Rp12,879bn, a modest 5.4% QoQ gain rather than a return to the double-digit sequential growth seen through most of 2022.

Balance sheet metric	Mar 2024 (IDR)	Mar 2024 (USD)	Dec 2023 (IDR)	QoQ
Total Assets	Rp1,444,007,645M	~$91.10B	Rp1,408,107,010M	✅ +2.5%
Third Party Funds (deposits, incl. sharia)*	~Rp1,120,600,000M	~$70.69B	~Rp1,101,700,000M	✅ +1.7%
CASA (demand + savings deposits)*	~Rp904,500,000M	~$57.05B	~Rp884,600,000M	✅ +2.2%
Total Loans (outstanding, incl. sharia)*	~Rp835,700,000M	~$52.71B	~Rp810,400,000M	✅ +3.1%
Total Equity (attributable to owners)	Rp227,161,854M	~$14.33B	Rp242,356,256M	⚠️ -6.3%

*Third Party Funds, CASA, and Total Loans per BCA's own investor presentation (consolidated, including sharia financing), the same sourcing convention used since Sep 2019's post.

Total equity attributable to owners fell 6.3% quarter-over-quarter - the drop this post's opening section traces to the Rp28,045,074 million FY2023 final dividend provision, disclosed as a supplementary non-cash financing item in the cash flow statement rather than on the face of the equity statement. Retained earnings (unappropriated) fell from Rp219,723,216M to Rp204,071,237M despite adding the quarter's full Rp12,879,486M net income, confirming the dividend accrual as the swing factor rather than any operating loss or write-down. Operating cash flow for the quarter was Rp29,921,610M (~$1,887.4M), up 18.5% from Q1 2023's Rp25,256,970M, driven mainly by a Rp17,229,491M net increase in customer deposits versus Q1 2023's much smaller Rp2,036,702M increase. Cash and cash equivalents closed the quarter at Rp141,161,575M (~$8,904.0M), up 13.5% from Dec 2023's Rp124,395,987M but down 12.6% from Mar 2023's Rp161,601,269M.

Key Operational Metrics

Bank-only unless noted, from BCA's own investor presentation and financial-ratio disclosures, cross-checked against the OJK-format monthly disclosure filed for March 2024:

• CASA to Total Funding: 81.5% (Mar 2024) vs Dec 2023's 81.1% ✅ +0.4pp.
• LDR^»: 71.2% (Mar 2024) vs 70.2% (Dec 2023) ⚠️ +1.0pp - a fourth straight quarter of rising loan-to-deposit pressure as loan growth continues to outpace deposit growth.
• NIM^»: 5.6% (Mar 2024, quarterly) vs Dec 2023's 5.6% - flat for a third straight quarter, effectively stable since bottoming after Dec 2022's 5.9% record.
• ROA^»: 3.6% (Mar 2024, quarterly) vs 3.7% (Dec 2023) ⚠️ -0.1pp.
• ROE^»: 22.7% (Mar 2024, quarterly) vs 23.4% (Dec 2023) ⚠️ -0.7pp - the equity-side effect of the dividend accrual mechanically raises ROE's denominator sensitivity, though the direction here is a decline, not the inflation a shrinking equity base might otherwise cause this early in the accrual.
• CAR^» (bank-only): 26.3% (Mar 2024) vs Dec 2023's 29.4% ⚠️ -3.1pp - the largest single-quarter move this series has recorded for this ratio; see above for why.
• NPL ratio - gross (bank-only, point-in-time): 1.9% (31 Mar 2024) vs 1.9% (31 Dec 2023) - flat, per this quarter's own presentation.
• NPL Coverage^» (Provision/NPL, bank-only): 220.3% (Mar 2024) vs Dec 2023's 234.1% ⚠️ -13.8pp - the second-largest single-quarter decline this series has recorded for this ratio, second only to Q3 2023's drop.
• Cost-to-Income Ratio^»: 32.4% (Mar 2024, quarterly) vs 36.5% (Dec 2023) ✅ -4.1pp - the sharpest quarterly improvement this series has recorded, as Q4's typically elevated year-end G&A spending (Rp6.5tn) normalized down to Rp4.4tn in Q1, even as personnel costs rose 25.0% QoQ (Rp4.0tn to Rp5.0tn) on what's consistent with a seasonal Q1 compensation step-up.
• Cost of credit (bank-only): 0.4% (Q1 2024) vs -0.1% (Q4 2023, a net recovery) ⚠️ +0.5pp - provisioning normalized back to a net charge after Q4's unusually favourable net recovery.
• Loan at Risk^» (bank-only, includes on & off-balance-sheet): 6.6% (Mar 2024) vs Dec 2023's 6.9% ✅ -0.3pp - a fresh series-period low, continuing the multi-quarter improvement.
• Total Loan Coverage (incl. off-B/S) to LAR: 71.9% (Mar 2024) vs Dec 2023's 69.7% ✅ +2.2pp - the highest ratio this series has recorded, continuing to climb.

The coverage-ratio gap this series has tracked since 2021 - Provision/NPL coverage minus Total-Loan-Coverage-to-LAR - narrowed further to 148.4 percentage points (220.3% minus 71.9%), continuing the gradual compression from Dec 2023's 164.4pp - though unlike Dec 2023, this quarter's narrowing comes entirely from Provision/NPL coverage falling rather than both metrics moving favourably together. Seasonally, Q1 is typically BCA's lightest provisioning quarter following Q4's year-end true-up, so some of the coverage-ratio decline and the cost-of-credit uptick likely reflect normal mean reversion from an unusually clean Q4 rather than a fresh deterioration in credit quality - worth confirming against Q2 2024 before treating it as a trend.

Segment Performance

BCA continues reporting four lending lines on a fully separated basis (consolidated, per this quarter's investor presentation): Corporate, Commercial, SME, and Consumer.

Corporate

Corporate loans reached Rp389.2 trillion (Mar 2024), up 22.1% year-over-year and 5.6% quarter-over-quarter - the fastest YoY pace of any segment this quarter and an acceleration from Dec 2023's already-strong 15.0% YoY. Its share of the four-segment total rose to roughly 47.1%, continuing to gain share from every other segment.

Commercial

Commercial loans reached Rp125.2 trillion (Mar 2024), up 9.3% year-over-year but down 1.3% quarter-over-quarter - the segment's first quarterly contraction since it began being reported separately from SME in Q3 2023, reversing Dec 2023's 4.3% QoQ growth. One quarter isn't enough to call this a reversal of trend rather than normal single-quarter lumpiness in a segment with fewer, larger-ticket loans, but it's the one segment moving against the broader loan-growth story this quarter and worth watching into Q2.

SME

SME loans reached Rp110.4 trillion (Mar 2024), up 13.5% year-over-year and 2.3% quarter-over-quarter - a deceleration on a QoQ basis from Dec 2023's 2.5% but broadly consistent with the segment's recent pace.

Consumer

Consumer loans reached Rp201.6 trillion (Mar 2024), up 14.9% year-over-year and 1.8% quarter-over-quarter - a slower QoQ pace than Dec 2023's 4.0%, consistent with Q1 typically being a softer consumer-lending quarter ahead of the mid-year Ramadan/Eid consumption cycle. Within Consumer, mortgages grew to Rp121.7 trillion (+0.5% QoQ, +11.0% YoY) and vehicle lending to Rp59.8 trillion (+5.0% QoQ, +22.2% YoY) - vehicle lending's YoY pace accelerated past Dec 2023's 20.8%, the strongest sustained growth rate this series has recorded for the sub-segment, even as mortgage growth cooled to its slowest YoY pace since this series began tracking the sub-segment split.

Segment Comparison

Segment	Mar 2024 (Rp tn)	Mar 2023 (Rp tn)	YoY	Dec 2023 (Rp tn)	QoQ	Share (Mar 2024)
Corporate	389.2	318.7	✅ +22.1%	368.7	✅ +5.6%	47.1%
Commercial	125.2	114.6	✅ +9.3%	126.8	⚠️ -1.3%	15.1%
SME	110.4	97.3	✅ +13.5%	107.9	✅ +2.3%	13.4%
Consumer	201.6	175.5	✅ +14.9%	198.0	✅ +1.8%	24.4%
Total (four segments, consolidated)	826.4	706.1	✅ +17.0%	801.4	✅ +3.1%	100.0%

Three of four segments grew both YoY and QoQ this quarter; Commercial is the exception, growing YoY but contracting QoQ - the first time since the four-way split began that any single segment has broken from the pattern of simultaneous growth this series first flagged in mid-2023. Corporate's continued acceleration (22.1% YoY, its fastest pace on record in this series) is the single biggest driver of the record 17.1% consolidated loan growth noted under Key Operational Metrics above.

Beyond the Usual

This quarter's downloaded documents are the unaudited consolidated interim financial statements and the investor presentation - narrower footnote coverage than an annual report provides, since the deeper disclosures (legal cases, full related-party detail) typically appear only in BCA's audited annual filing. The findings below come from what the interim statements do disclose: the restructured-loan note, the off-balance-sheet commitments note, and the cash flow statement's supplementary financing disclosure.

The COVID-Era Restructuring Relaxation Formally Ended This Quarter - And the Restructured Book's Worst Tier Ticked Back Up

BCA's own notes disclose that the OJK's targeted credit-and-financing restructuring relaxation policy - repeatedly extended since its original 2021 introduction and still in effect as of Dec 2023's post - "ended on 31 March 2024." In the same note, the restructured loan book's worst collectability tier (Substandard + Doubtful + Loss, parent entity only) rose to Rp11,066,229 million as of 31 March 2024, up from Dec 2023's Rp10,702,901 million (+3.4% QoQ) - reversing the first decline in six quarters that Q4 2023's post found. At the same time, the total restructured book kept shrinking, down 11.2% QoQ to Rp36,051,884 million from Rp40,581,823 million - consistent with fewer new loans being placed into restructuring as the relaxation window closed, while the loans still on the book slip further toward non-performing status. With the relaxation policy no longer available, whether BCA's Q2 2024 restructured NPL tier keeps climbing under normal (harder) restructuring criteria, or whether affected debtors instead move straight into the standard NPL classification, is worth tracking specifically next quarter.

Off-balance-sheet Stage 2 estimated-loss provisioning against commitments and contingencies continued its volatile multi-quarter pattern, rising to Rp173,832 million at Mar 2024 from Dec 2023's Rp148,170 million (+17.3% QoQ) - the fourth directional swing in five quarters for this specific footnote line, still small in absolute terms but consistently large in percentage-move terms.

The exact size of BCA's FY2023 final dividend accrual - Rp28,045,074 million, disclosed only in the cash flow statement's supplementary non-cash-financing-activity note - explains essentially all of this quarter's headline capital-ratio and equity moves discussed above. The comparative Mar 2023 column shows the identical mechanism at a smaller scale (Rp20,956,758 million), confirming this is a recurring annual pattern tied to BCA's shareholder-meeting calendar rather than a one-off event, even though the deck itself never surfaces the connection between the dividend note and the capital-ratio table a few pages earlier.

Coverage Table

Metric	Q1 2024	Q4 2023	QoQ	Why it matters
Total Loans (consolidated, incl. sharia)	~Rp835.7tn	~Rp810.4tn	✅ +3.1% (record 17.1% YoY)	Fastest consolidated loan growth this series has recorded
CAR (bank-only)	26.3%	29.4%	⚠️ -3.1pp	Largest single-quarter move this series has recorded, dividend-driven not credit-driven
Total Equity (attributable to owners)	Rp227.2tn	Rp242.4tn	⚠️ -6.3%	Same dividend-accrual mechanism as CAR
Restructured NPL tier (bank-only, QoQ)	+3.4%	-11.3% (prior quarter)	⚠️ Reversed	COVID restructuring relaxation formally ended this quarter
Commercial loans (consolidated, QoQ)	-1.3%	+4.3% (prior quarter)	⚠️ First contraction	Only segment breaking from simultaneous four-segment growth
Net Income (attributable to owners)	Rp12,879bn	Rp12,219bn (4Q23 standalone)	✅ +5.4%	Ends three flat quarters of standalone profit

Target Valuation Range

P/E of ~24.8x and P/B of ~5.47x - BCA looks moderately expensive here - shares hit a fresh series-period high on record loan growth, but both trailing P/E and P/B expanded faster than the earnings and book-value growth underneath them, and roughly half of the P/B move specifically comes from the dividend-driven shrinkage in book value rather than a genuine re-rating.

BCA's shares closed at Rp10,075 on March 28, 2024 (the last trading day of the quarter), up 7.2% from Dec 2023's Rp9,400 close and 15.1% year-over-year from Mar 2023's Rp8,750 - a new closing high for the roughly two-year window this series has tracked, comfortably surpassing Dec 2023's own then-record Rp9,400. Over the trailing two years, shares are up 26.3% from Mar 2022's Rp7,975 close, a window whose peak-to-trough swing (Jun 2022's Rp7,250 low to this quarter's own Rp10,075 high, roughly 39.0%) now clears the threshold this series uses to justify a dedicated section, unlike Dec 2023's 29.7% swing which stayed just under it. The move coincides with this quarter's record loan growth and continued double-digit profit growth, a plausible fundamental driver rather than an unexplained rally. BCA's last stock split (1:5) took effect 13 October 2021, before this two-year window begins, so no further split adjustment applies to these prices.

• P/E^»: ~24.8x, using the trailing four quarters' net profit (Rp12,660bn + Rp12,230bn + Rp12,219bn + Rp12,879bn = Rp49,989bn, Q2 2023 through Q1 2024) against the Rp10,075 close and 123,275,050,000 shares outstanding - up from Dec 2023's ~23.8x, as the 7.2% QoQ price gain outpaced trailing-four-quarter EPS growth of roughly 3.7%.
• P/B^»: ~5.47x, using book value per share of Rp1,843 (total equity attributable to owners, Rp227,161,854 million, divided by 123,275,050,000 shares) - up sharply from Dec 2023's ~4.78x. Roughly half of this jump is the share price rising 7.2% QoQ; the rest comes from book value per share itself falling 6.3% QoQ on the dividend accrual discussed above - a P/B expansion that overstates how much more expensive the bank's underlying equity actually got this quarter.

Market cap → book value	Q1 2024
Share price (period-end)	Rp10,075
Shares outstanding	123,275,050,000
Market capitalization	Rp1,241,996B (~$78.35B)
Book value (equity attributable to owners)	Rp227,162B (~$14.33B)
P/B»	~5.47x

P/E and P/B	FY2023 (actual)	Q1 2024 (TTM)	Change
EPS	Rp395	Rp405.5	✅ up
P/E»	~23.8x	~24.8x	⚠️ up
Book value per share	Rp1,966	Rp1,843	⚠️ down
P/B»	~4.78x	~5.47x	⚠️ up

A full DCF still isn't attempted here, for the same reason as every prior post in this series - BCA's durable growth rate is easier to describe qualitatively (CASA-funded, broad-based double-digit loan growth) than to pin to a single confident multi-year cash-flow forecast. The peer-multiple comparison this section would normally lean on also isn't available yet, since no other IDX bank in this backlog has a post covering the same March 2024 quarter. At ~24.8x trailing earnings and ~5.5x book for a bank growing loans a record 17.1% a year, BCA isn't obviously overpriced on earnings alone, but the P/B multiple specifically is inflated this quarter by a mechanical, temporary shrinkage in the book-value denominator rather than a genuine improvement in what a dollar of BCA's equity is worth - a reader comparing this quarter's P/B against prior quarters should discount some of the apparent re-rating accordingly.

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