BBCA Margins Finally Widen as Corporate Lending Stalls Again

Three Quarters of Profit Growth, One Segment Stalls

The Q2 2022 post closed on two live threads: cost of credit had swung wildly (1.9% to 0.6%) in a way that deserved more explanation than a single ratio line gives it, and the restructured loan book's worst collectability tier had grown for a fourth straight quarter, just far more slowly than Q1's pace. Neither thread resolved cleanly this quarter - each just kept moving in the same direction, one further than the other.

Bank-only cost of credit fell again, from Q2's 0.6% to 0.0% - not a rounding artifact but the literal reading in BCA's own key-ratios table, the third straight quarter this metric has moved by roughly a percentage point in one direction. Standalone net profit rose for a third consecutive quarter, up 9.2% QoQ to Rp10,905 billion from Q2's Rp9,985 billion, extending the recovery from Q1's two-quarter slide. NIM (bank-only, quarterly) jumped to 5.4% from Q2's 5.0% - the highest single-quarter reading this series has recorded, and the first time NIM has actually widened meaningfully rather than just stabilized, as Bank Indonesia's rate hikes (7-Day Reverse Repo Rate up to 4.25% by September, from 3.50% a year earlier) began repricing BCA's asset side faster than its overwhelmingly low-cost deposit base.

Two things didn't cooperate with that clean story. Corporate loans - the segment that led Q2's acceleration - contracted 1.3% quarter-over-quarter, the first Corporate QoQ decline since Q1's stall, even as the other two segments kept growing (see Segment Comparison). And operating cash flow swung to a large negative reading: nine-month operating cash flow of Rp17,941,627 million (~$1,178.1M) implies a standalone Q3 figure of roughly -Rp56.15 trillion (-$3.69B), reversing H1's swing to positive entirely - see Beyond the Usual for what actually drove it (it isn't a funding problem). The restructured book's NPL tier, meanwhile, kept doing exactly what it did last quarter, just slower still: a fifth straight quarter of growth, this time at its slowest pace of the streak.

The Prescription

BCA earned real credit this quarter for finally showing NIM expansion instead of just NIM stability - after several quarters where "NIM held roughly flat despite rate pressure" was itself treated as a minor win, 5.4% (up 40bp QoQ, per the presentation's own bank-only reading) is the first quarter this series has seen where rising rates clearly worked for BCA's spread rather than just failing to work against it. BCA should keep leaning into that repricing discipline aggressively while the rate cycle is still moving up - CASA^» funding this cheap (81.0% of deposits, per this quarter's presentation) gives it more room than almost any peer to reprice loans without matching every deposit-rate move, and this is the quarter to bank that advantage rather than assume it repeats automatically next quarter.

What BCA should stop doing: treating the Commercial & SME/Consumer segment reclassification as something that doesn't need a footnote. Q2's post first found that BCA's own year-ago comparative figures for these two segments didn't reconcile against what BCA itself had reported a year earlier - a near-exact swap of roughly Rp4.7 trillion between the two segments with no disclosure. This quarter's presentation restates the same Sep-2021 comparative figures again, and they still carry the identical unexplained shift (see Beyond the Usual) - meaning this isn't a one-off transcription issue that will quietly resolve itself. Two straight quarters of the same undisclosed reclassification sitting in the company's own restated comparatives is a pattern, not a coincidence, and it deserves an actual footnote the next time BCA files a document with real notes to the financials.

Key Financial Metrics

9M 2022 vs. 9M 2021 (P&L, consolidated unaudited interim figures), and 30 September 2022 vs. 31 December 2021 (balance sheet, consolidated)

FX: IDR 15,227.5 = USD 1 (September 30, 2022, per BCA's own filed financial statements' Reuters middle-rate disclosure) - a 2.2% further Rupiah depreciation from Q2 2022's Rp14,897.5.

This is BCA's unaudited interim OJK-format filing, the same limitation every quarter this series has noted - it carries the balance sheet, P&L, cash flow statement, commitments/contingencies, the collectability-tier asset-quality schedule, and the spot/derivatives schedule, but not the deeper related-party and lease/purchase-commitment footnotes that only accompany a full annual filing. See Beyond the Usual for what this quarter's schedules turned up regardless.

Metric	9M 2022 (IDR)	9M 2022 (USD)	9M 2021 (IDR)	YoY
Net Interest Income	Rp46,092,587M	~$3,027.1M	Rp42,155,900M	✅ +9.3%
Non-interest income (gross)	Rp16,663,000M	~$1,094.3M	Rp15,451,000M	✅ +7.8%
Net Revenue (Operating Income, NII + non-interest)	Rp62,755,000M	~$4,121.1M	Rp57,606,000M	✅ +8.9%
Operating Income (PPOP», consolidated)	Rp39,579,000M	~$2,599.4M	Rp36,422,000M	✅ +8.7%
Net Income (attributable to owners)	Rp28,954,563M	~$1,901.5M	Rp23,198,662M	✅ +24.8%
EPS (cumulative, individual)	Rp235	~$0.0154	Rp188*	✅ +25.0%

*Rp188 is 9M 2021's originally-reported EPS restated for the company's 1:5 stock split (effective 13 October 2021), per the filing's own footnote - both periods already on the same, post-split basis.

Net profit grew 24.8% YoY on the cumulative 9M view, in line with H1's own 24.9% pace - the cumulative growth rate has now held essentially steady across two consecutive reporting periods. The more useful read is still sequential: standalone Q3 net profit reached Rp10,905 billion, up 9.2% QoQ from Q2's Rp9,985 billion - a third straight quarter of sequential growth, the longest such streak this series has recorded for BCA. Provisioning expense (bank-only, per the presentation) fell to just Rp191 billion in Q3 from Q2's Rp909 billion, an 79.0% QoQ drop that pushed bank-only cost of credit to 0.0% for the quarter - down from 0.6% in Q2 and 1.9% in Q1, three straight quarters of large moves in the same direction rather than the volatility (up, then down) Q2's post flagged.

Balance sheet metric	Sep 2022 (IDR)	Sep 2022 (USD)	Dec 2021 (IDR)	QoQ/YtD
Total Assets	Rp1,288,723,136M	~$84.63B	Rp1,228,344,680M	✅ +4.9% YtD
Third Party Funds (deposits)*	Rp1,025,528,000M	~$67.35B	Rp975,949,000M	✅ +1.4% QoQ
CASA»*	Rp830,447,000M	~$54.53B	Rp767,012,000M	✅ +1.5% QoQ
Total Loans (outstanding)*	Rp681,983,000M	~$44.79B	Rp636,987,000M	✅ +1.0% QoQ
Total Equity (consolidated)	Rp211,940,343M	~$13.92B	Rp202,712,762M	✅ +4.4% QoQ

*Third Party Funds, CASA, and Total Loans (outstanding, consolidated including sharia financing) per BCA's own investor presentation, the same sourcing convention used since Sep 2019's post. Total Loans in USD reads lower than Q2's ~$45.33B despite continued IDR growth, purely a currency-translation effect of the Rupiah's further depreciation (see FX line above), not a slowdown in the loan book.

Total loans grew a modest 1.0% QoQ, well below Q2's 6.0% - see Segment Comparison below for why. Equity grew 4.4% QoQ, continuing its post-dividend recovery. Nine-month operating cash flow was Rp17,941,627M (~$1,178.1M), down sharply from H1's Rp74,094,395M - implying a standalone Q3 operating cash flow of roughly -Rp56,152,768M (-$3,687.4M), the largest single-quarter swing this series has recorded and a reversal of Q2's large positive figure. See Beyond the Usual for what drove it. Cash and cash equivalents closed the quarter at Rp153,873,898M (~$10.11B), down 32.3% from Q2's Rp227,093,708M but still 13.2% below Dec 2021's Rp177,268,685M for the same underlying reason - the reverse-repo build described in Beyond the Usual.

Key Operational Metrics

Bank-only (individual) unless noted, from BCA's own filed financial-ratio disclosures and investor presentation:

• CASA ratio: 81.0% (Sep 2022, consolidated, per BCA's own investor presentation) vs Jun 2022's 80.9% ✅ - another fresh high, though the gain has clearly slowed.
• LDR^» (LFR in BCA's own terminology): 63.3% (Sep 2022, per the presentation) vs 63.5% (Jun 2022) ⚠️ - essentially flat, deposit growth (1.4% QoQ) now keeping pace with loan growth's much slower 1.0% QoQ.
• NIM^»: 5.4% (Sep 2022, quarterly, per the presentation) vs 5.0% (Jun 2022, quarterly) ✅ - the sharpest sequential NIM increase this series has recorded, and the highest single-quarter reading tracked to date.
• ROA^»: 3.4% (Sep 2022, quarterly, per the presentation) vs 3.2% (Jun 2022, quarterly) ✅.
• ROE^»: 22.7% (Sep 2022, quarterly) vs 22.4% (Jun 2022, quarterly) ✅ - a fresh high, though the QoQ gain itself was small.
• CAR^» (bank-only): 25.4% (Sep 2022, quarterly, per the presentation) vs 24.7% (Jun 2022) ✅ - comfortably above the 9.99% individual KPMM requirement.
• NPL ratio - gross (bank-only, point-in-time): 2.2% (30 Sep 2022, per BCA's filed ratio disclosure, 2.16% unrounded) vs 2.36% (30 Sep 2021) ✅ - a second straight YoY improvement, continuing the reversal Q2's post first recorded. Net NPL: 0.66% vs 0.89% a year earlier, similarly improved.
• Cost of credit (bank-only): 0.0% (Q3 2022, per the presentation) vs 0.6% (Q2 2022) ✅ - see above; three straight quarters of large one-directional moves (1.9% → 0.6% → 0.0%) is still not a metric behaving like a stable input to earnings quality, even though every move so far has been favorable.
• Cost-to-Income Ratio^»: 34.8% (Sep 2022, quarterly, per the presentation) vs 32.9% (Jun 2022) ⚠️ - ticked back up after Q2's low, still below Q1's 35.8%.
• BOPO^»: 48.55% (Sep 2022, filed ratio, nine-month cumulative) vs 54.29% (Sep 2021) ✅ - continuing the large YoY improvement tracked since FY2021.
• Loan-loss coverage (Provision/NPL, bank-only): 247.9% (Sep 2022, per the presentation) vs Jun 2022's 246.4% ✅ - a fifth straight quarter of sequential rebuild since Q3 2021's trough.
• Loan at Risk^» (ex-Covid, share of total loans): 11.7% (Sep 2022, per the presentation) vs Jun 2022's 12.3%, a further improvement.
• LAR Coverage with Restructured Covid & off-B/S: 49.9% (Sep 2022) vs Jun 2022's 47.9%, continuing the QoQ improvement.

The coverage-ratio gap this series has tracked since 2021 - Provision/NPL coverage minus LAR-including-Covid coverage - narrowed only slightly to 198.0 percentage points (247.9% minus 49.9%), down from Jun 2022's 198.5pp - the narrowing has clearly lost momentum this quarter even as both underlying ratios kept improving individually. As with every quarter this series has tracked, that narrowing sits alongside - not instead of - the restructured book's own NPL tier still growing in absolute terms (see Beyond the Usual).

Segment Performance

BCA reports three lending segments (consolidated, per this quarter's investor presentation): Corporate, Commercial & SME, and Consumer. Q2's post documented all three growing simultaneously again after Q1's break in that streak. This quarter breaks it again, on the QoQ view specifically - Corporate is the one that stalled this time, not Commercial & SME.

Corporate

Corporate loans stood at Rp306,065 billion (Sep 2022), up 13.4% year-over-year but down 1.3% quarter-over-quarter - the first Corporate QoQ contraction since Q1 2022's near-flat quarter, reversing Q2's 8.1% QoQ acceleration entirely. Its share of the total book slipped to 44.9% from Jun 2022's 45.9%.

Commercial & SME

Commercial & SME loans reached Rp203,547 billion (Sep 2022), up 12.6% year-over-year and 3.0% quarter-over-quarter - continuing Q2's reversal into growth, now the fastest-growing segment on both a YoY and QoQ basis this quarter. See Beyond the Usual for why this segment's YoY figure still doesn't reconcile cleanly against its own year-ago disclosure.

Consumer

Consumer loans reached Rp164,965 billion (Sep 2022), up 10.4% year-over-year (see Beyond the Usual for the same reconciliation issue affecting this segment) and 2.8% quarter-over-quarter - continuing steady growth, though slightly behind Commercial & SME's pace for a second straight quarter. Within Consumer, mortgages grew to Rp105,003 billion (+3.3% QoQ, +10.4% YoY) and vehicle lending to Rp43,776 billion (+1.4% QoQ, +9.2% YoY) - both segments' new-booking volumes stayed high through the quarter, per the presentation's own new-booking-versus-run-off charts, with mortgage YoY O/S growth (10.4%) now at its strongest pace this series has recorded.

Segment Comparison

Segment	Sep 2022 (Rp bn)	Sep 2021 (Rp bn, own contemporaneous figure)	BCA's Sep-22 presentation's restated Sep-21 figure	Implied YoY vs. contemporaneous	Jun 2022 (Rp bn)	QoQ	Share (Sep 2022)
Corporate	306,065	269,891	269,882	+13.4%	310,232	⚠️ -1.3%	44.9%
Commercial & SME	203,547	185,446	180,694	+9.8%	197,549	✅ +3.0%	29.8%
Consumer	164,965	144,674	149,435	+14.0%	160,508	✅ +2.8%	24.2%
Total (three segments, consolidated)	674,577	600,011	600,011	+12.4%	668,289	✅ +0.9%	99.0%*

*Remaining ~1.0% is sharia financing (Rp7,406bn), reported separately from the three core lending segments; the consolidated total-loans figure elsewhere in this post (Rp681,983bn) includes that sharia book. The "own contemporaneous figure" column is what Q3 2021's post itself reported at the time, sourced from that quarter's own presentation; the next column is what this quarter's presentation restates the same Sep-2021 figures as - see Beyond the Usual for why they don't match and what that implies for BCA's own stated YoY growth rates.

Corporate's contraction is the whole story behind this quarter's much slower 1.0% QoQ total loan growth (down from Q2's 6.0%) - Commercial & SME and Consumer both kept growing at a similar clip to last quarter, so the deceleration is concentrated in one segment rather than broad-based. Whether this is BCA choosing to let a large corporate exposure run off, a seasonal Q3 pattern in corporate drawdowns, or the start of a genuine pullback isn't disclosed in either the presentation or the filing - one quarter isn't enough to tell which.

Beyond the Usual

This is BCA's unaudited interim OJK-format filing - it carries the balance sheet, P&L, cash flow statement, commitments and contingencies, the spot/derivatives schedule, and the collectability-tier asset-quality schedule, but not the deeper related-party and lease/purchase-commitment footnotes that only accompany the full annual report (see every prior quarter's post for the same distinction). The findings below come from those schedules, the filing's own front matter, and BCA's investor presentation.

The Restructured Book's Worst Tier Grew a Fifth Straight Quarter, But at Its Slowest Pace Yet

BCA's Covid-19 restructured loan book (bank-only) fell further to Rp68.8 trillion at Sep 2022, down 4.6% QoQ from Jun 2022's Rp72.1 trillion and 16.6% year-to-date from Dec 2021's Rp82.5 trillion - a sixth straight quarterly decline in the total book. But the same disclosure's own collectability breakdown shows the NPL tier of that restructured book grew again, to Rp10.7 trillion, up 1.3% quarter-over-quarter and 20.1% year-to-date from Dec 2021's Rp8.9 trillion - both figures reported directly by BCA itself. The Current tier fell 4.1% QoQ and Special Mention fell 15.5% QoQ, the same bifurcation tracked since FY2021: a shrinking total that keeps shrinking specifically because its healthier tiers drain out while the worst bucket keeps growing. The deceleration Q2's post first found real evidence for continued rather than reversed - Q1's 16.1% QoQ growth slowed to Q2's 2.1%, and now to 1.3% this quarter, the slowest pace of the five consecutive quarters (Q3 2021 through Q3 2022) this tier has grown. Two straight quarters of genuine deceleration is a stronger case than one, but the tier still hasn't actually shrunk - it's approaching flat, not yet reversing.

The Commercial & SME/Consumer Reconciliation Gap Shows Up Again, Still Unexplained

Q2's post first found that BCA's stated YoY growth for Commercial & SME and Consumer didn't reconcile against those segments' own year-ago figures as originally reported - pointing to an undisclosed reclassification of roughly Rp4.7-4.8 trillion between the two segments sometime around mid-2021. This quarter's presentation restates the same Sep-2021 comparative period again, and the same gap is still there: it states Commercial & SME at Rp180,694bn and Consumer at Rp149,435bn for Sep 2021, versus the Rp185,446bn and Rp144,674bn that quarter's own post recorded directly from BCA's own contemporaneous presentation - a swap of almost exactly the same size as the one Q2's post found (Rp4,752bn out of Commercial & SME, a nearly matching Rp4,761bn into Consumer). Corporate's own Sep-2021 figure, by contrast, is consistent to within single-digit rounding across both quarters' restatements. Two consecutive quarters of BCA's own presentation carrying the identical unexplained shift is no longer plausibly a one-off transcription slip - it's a standing discrepancy in how the company reports these two segments' history, still without a word of explanation in either presentation.

A Large Reverse-Repo Placement, Not a Funding Problem, Drove Q3's Negative Cash Flow

BCA's nine-month cash flow statement shows a Rp21,284,166 million net cash outflow into "securities purchased under agreement to resell" (reverse repo) for the period, versus a Rp16,395,751 million net inflow from the same line in 9M 2021. Since Q2's post already recorded a large Rp49,991,420 million reverse-repo release in H1 2022, the arithmetic implies Q3 alone saw a reverse-repo build of roughly Rp71.3 trillion - almost the mirror image of H1's release, and the same swing driver behind Q1 2022's own negative operating cash flow. Customer deposit growth (Rp43,987,154 million net inflow over the nine months, per the filing's own breakdown) remained solidly positive throughout, so this isn't a deposit-funding story - it's BCA choosing, this quarter, to park a large amount of liquidity into reverse-repo placements rather than lend or invest it elsewhere, the same kind of quarter-to-quarter treasury positioning call that has driven every large operating-cash-flow swing this series has recorded for BCA so far.

The FX Swap and Derivatives Book Shrank by Nearly Half in One Quarter

BCA's own spot and derivatives/forward transaction schedule discloses total notional value of Rp32.5 trillion (individual/bank-only) at 30 September 2022 - down 48% from Jun 2022's Rp62.5 trillion, still entirely classified as trading rather than hedging positions. FX swaps fell even more sharply, to Rp15.1 trillion notional from Rp43.1 trillion, though the liability-versus-receivable mismatch that stood out last quarter narrowed only modestly in relative terms (Rp503,715 million liability against Rp1,105 million receivable on the swap book alone this quarter, still heavily one-sided). As with Jun 2022, the schedule doesn't disclose maturity buckets, so it isn't possible to say from this filing whether the drop reflects short-dated contracts simply rolling off, a deliberate reduction in trading positions, or something else - but a book this size moving by nearly half in a single quarter is itself notable, whatever the cause.

Coverage Table

Metric	Q3 2022	Q2 2022	QoQ	Why it matters
Net profit (standalone)	Rp10,905bn	Rp9,985bn	✅ +9.2%	Third straight quarter of sequential growth, the longest streak this series has tracked
NIM (bank-only, quarterly)	5.4%	5.0%	✅ +0.4pp	Highest reading this series has recorded; first quarter rate hikes clearly widened BCA's spread
Cost of credit (bank-only)	0.0%	0.6%	✅ -0.6pp	Third straight quarter of a roughly 1pp move in the same direction - still not behaving like a stable metric
Corporate loans (consolidated)	Rp306,065bn	Rp310,232bn	⚠️ -1.3%	First Corporate QoQ contraction since Q1 2022; the whole reason total loan growth slowed to 1.0% QoQ
Restructured loan NPL tier (bank-only)	Rp10.7tn	Rp10.5tn	⚠️ +1.3%	Fifth straight quarter of growth, but the slowest pace of the streak

Target Valuation Range

P/E of ~24.2x and P/B of ~4.97x - Bottom line: BCA looks fully valued, not cheap, this quarter - the share price rose faster than either earnings or book value, pushing both trailing multiples up even as the underlying numbers themselves kept improving.

BCA's shares closed at Rp8,550 on September 30, 2022 - already reflecting the company's 1:5 stock split (effective 13 October 2021, so this remains BCA's real, actually-quoted closing price with no retroactive conversion needed, and no further split has occurred since). That's up 17.9% from Q2 2022's Rp7,250 close and up 22.1% year-over-year from Sep 2021's Rp7,000 close - a figure that matches BCA's own investor presentation, which states the identical 22.1% YoY share-price gain as of September 2022. Over the trailing two years, shares are up 57.7% from Sep 2020's Rp5,420 close, a window that includes that same Rp5,420 trough and a new high of Rp8,550 reached this quarter - a peak-to-trough swing of nearly 58%, comfortably wide enough to warrant this dedicated section.

• P/E^»: ~24.2x, annualizing Q3 2022's Rp88.5 standalone EPS (Rp10,905bn net profit ÷ 123,275,050,000 shares) to Rp353.9 against the Rp8,550 close - up from Q2's ~22.4x, as the share price rose considerably faster than quarterly earnings did.
• P/B^»: ~4.97x, using book value per share of Rp1,719 (total equity Rp211,940,343 million divided by 123,275,050,000 shares outstanding, unchanged this quarter) - up from Q2's ~4.40x, again driven mostly by the share-price move rather than book value, which grew a more modest 4.4% QoQ.

Market cap → book value	Q3 2022
Share price (period-end)	Rp8,550
Shares outstanding	123,275,050,000
Market capitalization	Rp1,054,002B (~$69.23B)
Book value (total equity)	Rp211,940B (~$13.92B)
P/B»	~4.97x

P/E and P/B	Q2 2022 (annualized)	Q3 2022 (annualized)	Change
EPS (annualized)	Rp324	Rp353.9	✅ up
P/E»	~22.4x	~24.2x	⚠️ up
Book value per share	Rp1,647	Rp1,719	✅ up
P/B»	~4.40x	~4.97x	⚠️ up

A full DCF still isn't attempted here, for the same reason as every prior post in this series: the restructured-loan pool's worst tier is still growing, even at its slowest pace yet, and this quarter's Corporate contraction and large cash-flow swing add fresh uncertainty about the composition of near-term growth rather than resolving it. The peer-multiple comparison this section would normally lean on also isn't available yet - no other IDX bank in this backlog has a post covering the same September 2022 quarter to compare against.

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