BBCA Is a 26% Stock Slide Bigger Than the Actual Slowdown?

The Streak That Finally Broke

Since Q4 2023, BCA's four reported lending segments - Corporate, Commercial, SME, and Consumer - had grown both year-over-year and quarter-over-quarter simultaneously for seven straight quarters, a streak Q2 2025's post traced back that far. Q3 2025 broke it: all four segments contracted quarter-over-quarter at the same time - Corporate down 3.3%, Commercial down 0.5%, Consumer down 1.3%, and even SME, the only one still positive, managed just 1.8% growth against a much stronger Q2. The four-segment total fell to Rp932.7 trillion, down 1.7% quarter-over-quarter from Q2's Rp948.8 trillion, even though the total was still up 7.5% year-over-year against Sep 2024's roughly Rp867.5 trillion.

This isn't the credit-quality story recent quarters have carried - loan-to-deposit ratio actually eased sharply this quarter (see Key Operational Metrics), and the restructured-loan alarm Q2's post flagged partly reversed (see Beyond the Usual). It's a demand-side pause: every segment simultaneously growing more slowly than deposits for the first time in nearly two years, right as the stock itself fell 12.1% quarter-over-quarter and 26.2% year-over-year to Rp7,625 (see Stock Price and Valuation). Net income attributable to owners still grew 5.7% year-over-year to Rp43,397,415 million for the nine months - the question this quarter actually raises isn't whether BCA's business broke, but whether the stock's decline has run well ahead of what a one-quarter loan pause and a materially cheaper LDR profile should justify.

The Prescription

BCA should keep pushing Wealth Management as the growth lever that doesn't depend on loan demand recovering - Total Assets Under Management reached Rp303 trillion as of September 2025, up from Jun 2025's Rp292 trillion, with bonds still 93% of the base and mutual funds the fastest-growing slice at +48% year-over-year off a small starting point. Fee income already grew faster than net interest income this quarter (see Key Financial Metrics), and that gap should widen further as AUM compounds - a business line that earns fees on assets already sitting in BCA's ecosystem doesn't compete with the loan book for deposit funding the way lending growth does. What BCA should stop doing is treating a single quarter's simultaneous four-segment contraction as a footnote inside a "loan composition" slide - the investor presentation shows the QoQ declines plainly in its tables but frames the quarter's headline entirely around 7.6% year-over-year growth, without calling out that this is the first quarter this series has recorded where every segment moved the same direction downward at once. A bank whose entire investment case rests on broad-based, simultaneous loan growth across four segments should say so explicitly the one quarter that pattern breaks, not leave a reader to notice it by cross-referencing the QoQ column themselves.

Key Financial Metrics

9M 2025 vs. 9M 2024 (consolidated, unaudited nine-month figures, ended 30 September)

FX: IDR 16,665.0 = USD 1 (30 September 2025, per BCA's own filed financial statements' Reuters middle-rate disclosure) - a 10.1% Rupiah depreciation from Sep 2024's Rp15,140.0, and a further 2.6% depreciation from Jun 2025's Rp16,235.0.

Metric	9M 2025 (IDR)	9M 2025 (USD)	9M 2024 (IDR)	YoY
Net Interest and Sharia Income (net)	Rp63,946,351M	~$3,837.3M	Rp60,932,771M	✅ +4.9%
Non-interest operating income (gross)	Rp21,930,569M	~$1,315.9M	Rp19,604,033M	✅ +11.9%
Net Revenue (Operating Income, NII + non-interest)	Rp85,876,920M	~$5,153.3M	Rp80,536,804M	✅ +6.6%
Operating Income (PPOP, consolidated)	Rp57,289,670M	~$3,437.6M	Rp53,213,343M	✅ +7.7%
Net Income (attributable to owners)	Rp43,397,415M	~$2,604.3M	Rp41,073,863M	✅ +5.7%
EPS (nine-month, consolidated)	Rp352	~$0.021	Rp333	✅ +5.7%

A bank has no Adjusted EBITDA or free cash flow, per this series' convention for deposit-taking institutions.

Non-interest income grew nearly twice as fast as net interest income this quarter (11.9% vs 4.9% YoY) - fees and commissions alone grew 9.5% to Rp15.1 trillion, trading income 23.7% to Rp2.8 trillion. Impairment losses on assets rose 48.8% YoY (Rp2,367,089M to Rp3,522,726M), faster than PPOP's own 7.7% growth, continuing the step-up in provisioning expense Q2's post first flagged. Standalone Q3 2025 net profit (attributable to owners) was Rp14,381,001 million, down 3.3% quarter-over-quarter from Q2's Rp14,870,283 million - the first sequential decline in standalone quarterly profit this series has recorded since Q1 2025.

Balance sheet metric	Sep 2025 (IDR)	Sep 2025 (USD)	Sep 2024 (IDR)	YoY
Total Assets	Rp1,538,501,812M	~$92.33B	Rp1,433,701,780M	✅ +7.3%
Third Party Funds (deposits, incl. sharia)	~Rp1,204,700,000M	~$72.30B	~Rp1,125,000,000M	✅ +7.1%
CASA (demand + savings deposits)	~Rp998,900,000M	~$59.95B	~Rp915,000,000M	✅ +9.2%
Total Loans (outstanding, incl. sharia)*	~Rp944,100,000M	~$56.66B	~Rp877,200,000M	✅ +7.6%
Total Equity (attributable to owners)	Rp276,415,660M	~$16.59B	Rp255,765,346M	✅ +8.1%

*Total Loans, Third Party Funds, and CASA per BCA's own investor presentation (consolidated, including sharia financing), the same sourcing convention used since Sep 2019's post. The filed financial statements' own narrower "loans receivable" line (which excludes consumer financing and finance lease receivables reported separately) shows Rp921,999,630M at Sep 2025 versus Rp901,310,853M at Dec 2024, a smaller base than the presentation's consolidated loan figure but the same directional +2.3% year-to-date growth.

Total equity attributable to owners kept rebuilding after fully absorbing the FY2024 dividend by mid-year - up 5.3% year-to-date from Dec 2024's Rp262,640,621M, on retained-earnings accumulation with no further capital-return event this quarter. Operating cash flow was Rp65,931,980M (~$3,956.4M), down 11.1% from 9M 2024's Rp74,182,993M - a smaller net customer-deposit inflow contributed (Rp67,352,691M this period vs 9M 2024's mix of a much larger securities-repo inflow that isn't repeating this year), while "loans receivable" cash usage nearly tripled the placement outflow seen a year earlier. Capital expenditure on fixed assets (Rp803,533M) and right-of-use assets (Rp300,054M) remained a small fraction of operating cash flow, as is typical for a bank whose cash flow is dominated by loan and deposit movements rather than capex. Cash and cash equivalents closed the period at Rp100,202,148M (~$6,011.9M), down 2.6% YoY from Sep 2024's Rp102,859,512M but up 17.2% from Dec 2024's Rp85,482,530M.

Key Operational Metrics

Bank-only unless noted, from BCA's own investor presentation and financial-ratio disclosures:

• LDR^»: 75.6% (Sep 2025) vs Jun 2025's 78.0% ✅ -2.4pp QoQ, the sharpest single-quarter easing this series has recorded, and up only 0.5pp YoY from Sep 2024's 75.1%.
• CASA to Total Funding (bank-only): 83.8% (Sep 2025) vs Jun 2025's 83.4% ✅ +0.4pp, and up 1.6pp YoY.
• NIM^»: 5.7% (Q3 2025) vs 5.8% (Q2 2025) ⚠️ -0.1pp QoQ, flat YoY at 9M level (5.8%).
• ROA^»: 3.7% (Q3 2025) vs 3.9% (Q2 2025) ⚠️ -0.2pp QoQ, though the 9M average of 4.0% is still up 0.1pp YoY.
• ROE^»: 22.0% (Q3 2025) vs 24.2% (Q2 2025) ⚠️ -2.2pp QoQ, the largest single-quarter drop this series has tracked; the 9M average of 24.1% is down 0.6pp YoY.
• Cost-to-Income Ratio^»: 30.1% (Q3 2025) vs 29.8% (Q2 2025) ⚠️ +0.3pp QoQ, though the 9M average of 29.2% is still 1.0pp better than a year ago.
• CAR^» (bank-only): 29.9% (Sep 2025) vs Jun 2025's 28.4% ✅ +1.5pp, and up 0.6pp YoY.
• NPL ratio - gross (bank-only, point-in-time): 2.1% (Sep 2025) vs Jun 2025's 2.2% ✅ -0.1pp, flat YoY vs Sep 2024's 2.1%.
• NPL Coverage (Provision/NPL, bank-only): 166.6% (Sep 2025) vs Jun 2025's 167.2% ⚠️ -0.6pp QoQ, a much smaller decline than Q2's 12.9pp drop, and down 27.3pp YoY from Sep 2024's 193.9%.
• Loan at Risk^» (bank-only, includes on & off-balance-sheet): 5.5% (Sep 2025) vs Jun 2025's 5.7% ✅ -0.2pp QoQ, and down 0.6pp YoY.
• LAR Coverage (incl. off-balance-sheet): 69.5% (Sep 2025) vs Dec 2024's 76.5% ⚠️ -6.8pp year-to-date, though up 0.8pp QoQ.
• Consumer's share of consolidated NPL: 26.0% (Sep 2025) vs Jun 2025's 24.1% ⚠️ +1.9pp - a fourth straight quarter of this share climbing.
• Corporate's share of consolidated NPL: 33.0% (Sep 2025) vs Jun 2025's 37.0% ✅ -4.0pp - continuing last quarter's sharp improvement.
• Consolidated NPL outstanding: Rp19.3 trillion (Sep 2025) vs Jun 2025's Rp20.3 trillion ✅ -4.6% QoQ, the first quarterly decline in the absolute NPL balance this series has recorded in several quarters, though still up 7.6% YoY.
• Wealth Management AUM: Rp303 trillion (Sep 2025) vs Jun 2025's Rp292 trillion - bonds remain 93% of the base, with mutual funds the fastest-growing component (+48% YoY off a small base).

Segment Performance

BCA continues reporting four lending lines on a fully separated basis (consolidated, per this quarter's investor presentation): Corporate, Commercial, SME, and Consumer.

Corporate

Corporate loans reached Rp436.9 trillion (Sep 2025), up 10.4% year-over-year but down 3.3% quarter-over-quarter - the segment that had led every quarter's YoY pace since Q1 2025 posted its first QoQ contraction this series has tracked. Investment loans (54% of the segment) still grew 17% YoY, with investment-facility utilization easing to 78% from Q2's 80%, suggesting the pullback is demand-driven rather than a facility-capacity constraint.

Commercial

Commercial loans reached Rp142.9 trillion (Sep 2025), up 5.7% year-over-year but down 0.5% quarter-over-quarter - a much softer pace than Q2 2025's 12.6% YoY, 4.5% QoQ reading.

SME

SME loans reached Rp129.3 trillion (Sep 2025), up 7.7% year-over-year and 1.8% quarter-over-quarter - the only segment to keep growing sequentially this quarter, though the YoY pace itself decelerated from Q2's 11.1%. BCA's own industry comparison still shows this outpacing ex-micro industry SME growth (5.8% YoY), a narrower gap than Q2's but still ahead.

Consumer

Consumer loans reached Rp223.6 trillion (Sep 2025), up 3.3% year-over-year but down 1.3% quarter-over-quarter - the softest YoY pace of any quarter this series has recorded for this segment, down sharply from Q2's 7.6%. Within Consumer, mortgages actually grew (Rp138.8 trillion, +6.4% YoY, +0.8% QoQ) while vehicle lending kept contracting (Rp61.4 trillion, -4.3% YoY, -6.1% QoQ) as industry-wide new car sales fell 11.6% YoY for the nine months. Sharia financing again grew fastest of any line at +17.0% YoY to Rp12.2 trillion, though still the smallest reported segment.

Segment Comparison

Segment	Sep 2025 (Rp tn)	Sep 2024 (Rp tn, implied)	YoY	Jun 2025 (Rp tn)	QoQ	Share (Sep 2025)
Corporate	436.9	~395.7	✅ +10.4%	451.8	⚠️ -3.3%	46.8%
Commercial	142.9	~135.2	✅ +5.7%	143.6	⚠️ -0.5%	15.3%
SME	129.3	~120.1	✅ +7.7%	127.0	✅ +1.8%	13.9%
Consumer	223.6	~216.5	✅ +3.3%	226.4	⚠️ -1.3%	24.0%
Total (four segments, consolidated)	932.7	~867.5	✅ +7.5%	948.8	⚠️ -1.7%	100.0%

For the first time since the four-segment split reached simultaneous-growth status in Q4 2023, every segment contracted quarter-over-quarter at once - see The Streak That Finally Broke above. Year-over-year growth held up across all four, so the pause reads as a genuine quarter-over-quarter deceleration rather than an outright reversal, but it's the first time this series has recorded the direction flipping for all four simultaneously rather than just one or two segments softening while others compensate.

Beyond the Usual

This quarter's downloaded document is the unaudited interim financial statements, carrying footnote detail on restructured loans, related-party transactions, commitments and contingencies, unresolved tax disputes, and the tax reconciliation between consolidated and bank-only income - the same scope as prior interim quarters.

The Restructured Book's Doubtful Tier Partially Reversed

The "Doubtful" collectability tier within the restructured loan book, which Q2's post flagged as growing more than fivefold in six months, fell back to Rp751,990 million as of 30 September 2025 from Jun 2025's Rp1,140,412 million - a 34.1% quarter-over-quarter decline, though still well above Dec 2024's Rp221,515 million. The total restructured book itself shrank further to Rp26,569,369 million from Jun 2025's Rp29,606,828 million, down 10.3% quarter-over-quarter and now below Dec 2024's Rp28,786,602 million for the first time this series has tracked within a fiscal year. The combined restructured-and-NPL tier fell to Rp9,866,528 million from Jun 2025's Rp11,398,394 million, a 13.4% quarter-over-quarter decline that puts it slightly below Dec 2024's own Rp10,028,447 million starting point for the year - the concentrated migration last quarter's post flagged didn't compound further, and partially unwound instead.

All Four Loan Segments Contracted Quarter-over-Quarter Simultaneously for the First Time

This is the quarter's most structurally new finding, covered in full in The Streak That Finally Broke and the Segment Comparison above - BCA's own presentation shows the QoQ decline in its tables but doesn't call out the coincidence of all four segments moving the same direction at once, something worth watching for whether it's a one-quarter pause or the start of a genuine deceleration.

Return Metrics Softened Together in a Single Quarter

Bank-only ROE fell from 24.2% in Q2 2025 to 22.0% in Q3 2025, the largest single-quarter drop this series has tracked, alongside ROA easing from 3.9% to 3.7% and Cost-to-Income ticking up from 29.8% to 30.1% - all three moving the same unfavorable direction together, though each individually is a modest move and none pushes any ratio outside BCA's normal historical range. Unlike Q1 2025's post, which flagged a one-off subsidiary dividend distorting these same ratios, BCA's own disclosure for this quarter doesn't call out a comparable one-off item - the softening looks like an ordinary quarter's lower profit against a larger capital and asset base, worth tracking next quarter rather than treating as a fresh concern on its own.

A multi-year tax dispute continues working through Indonesia's court system: the Directorate General of Taxes' assessments for BCA's 2016, 2017, and 2018 fiscal years remain partly contested at the Supreme Court via Judicial Review, with portions of each year's disputed VAT and corporate income tax already resolved in BCA's favor by the Tax Court while smaller residual amounts (Rp48,774 million for 2016, Rp20,225 million for 2017) await a final Supreme Court ruling filed as recently as December 2024 and January 2025 respectively. None of these amounts are individually material to BCA's scale, and management's own disclosure characterizes the bank's various unresolved legal actions generally as not expected to have a material effect on its results or financial position.

BCA's treasury stock position was unchanged this quarter at Rp249,992 million (28,317,500 shares) - the same balance Q2 2025's post first recorded as the bank's first-ever buyback, with no further repurchase activity added in Q3.

Coverage Table

Metric	Sep 2025	Sep 2024	YoY	Why it matters
Four-segment consolidated loans	Rp932.7tn	~Rp867.5tn	✅ +7.5%	First quarter all four segments fell QoQ simultaneously - see above
LDR (bank-only)	75.6%	75.1%	⚠️ +0.5pp	Eased 2.4pp QoQ from Jun 2025's 78.0%, the sharpest single-quarter improvement this series has recorded
NPL Coverage (bank-only)	166.6%	193.9%	⚠️ -27.3pp	Decline nearly stopped this quarter (-0.6pp vs Q2's -12.9pp)
Restructured book's Doubtful tier	Rp752.0bn	n/a	-	Partially reversed Q2's fivefold spike, down 34.1% QoQ - see Beyond the Usual
ROE (bank-only, quarterly)	22.0%	n/a	-	Largest single-quarter drop this series has tracked, no one-off item disclosed
Share price	Rp7,625	Rp10,325	⚠️ -26.2%	Fell faster than earnings or book value grew - see Stock Price and Valuation

Target Valuation Range

Bottom line: BCA looks meaningfully cheaper than a quarter ago on both trailing multiples - not because the business deteriorated, but because the share price fell faster than earnings or book value grew. At ~16.5x trailing earnings and ~3.4x book, the stock isn't priced for the growth streak it just broke, which argues for fairly-to-undervalued rather than overvalued, conditional on this quarter's segment pause proving temporary.

BCA's shares closed at Rp7,625 on 30 September 2025, down 12.1% quarter-over-quarter from Jun 2025's Rp8,675 close and down 26.2% year-over-year from Sep 2024's Rp10,325. Over the trailing two years, shares ranged from this quarter's own Rp7,625 low to Aug/Sep 2024's Rp10,325 high - a peak-to-trough swing of roughly 26.2%, and a clear six-consecutive-month decline from May 2025's Rp9,400 through this quarter's close, rather than a single volatile print. BCA's last stock split (1:5) took effect 13 October 2021, well before this two-year window begins, so no split adjustment applies to these prices.

• P/E^»: ~16.5x, using the trailing four quarters' net profit attributable to owners (Rp13,762.4bn + Rp14,146.1bn + Rp14,870.3bn + Rp14,381.0bn = Rp57,159.9bn, Q4 2024 through Q3 2025) against the Rp7,625 close and 123,275,050,000 shares outstanding - down sharply from Jun 2025's ~18.8x, as the 12.1% QoQ price decline outpaced trailing-four-quarter earnings' modest growth.
• P/B^»: ~3.40x, using book value per share of Rp2,242 (total equity attributable to owners, Rp276,415,660 million, divided by 123,275,050,000 shares) - down from Jun 2025's ~4.09x, the largest single-quarter multiple compression this series has recorded, entirely a function of the price decline since book value per share kept growing.

Market cap → book value	Q3 2025
Share price (period-end)	Rp7,625
Shares outstanding	123,275,050,000
Market capitalization	Rp939,972B (~$56.41B)
Book value (equity attributable to owners)	Rp276,416B (~$16.59B)
P/B»	~3.40x

P/E and P/B (TTM basis)	Q2 2025	Q3 2025	Change
EPS (TTM)	Rp462.2	Rp463.7	✅ up
P/E»	~18.8x	~16.5x	✅ down
Book value per share	Rp2,122	Rp2,242	✅ up
P/B»	~4.09x	~3.40x	✅ down

A full DCF still isn't attempted here, for the same reason as every prior post in this series - BCA's durable growth rate is easier to describe qualitatively than to pin to a single confident multi-year cash-flow forecast, and no other IDX bank in this backlog yet has a post covering the same September 2025 quarter for a peer-multiple comparison. At ~16.5x trailing earnings and ~3.4x book for a bank whose fundamentals (LDR, NPL ratio, NPL Coverage decline) mostly improved or stabilized this quarter even as its four lending segments paused together, the stock's 26% annual decline looks larger than what this quarter's numbers alone would justify - though a reader should weigh whether the segment pause is the start of something more persistent before treating the cheaper multiples as a clean opportunity.

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