BBCA Why Did the Stock Fall 20% This Quarter Even as Profit Kept Growing?

A Bank Getting Cheaper to Fund and Slower to Lend

BCA's Q1 2026 tells two stories that would normally point in the same direction but didn't. On the funding side, the bank keeps getting cheaper to run: consolidated CASA^» grew 11.2% year-over-year to Rp1,089.1 trillion, pulling bank-only CASA-to-Total-Funding up to 85.2% - probably the strongest deposit mix BCA has posted in this entire series. On the lending side, growth has stalled: consolidated loans grew just 5.6% YoY to Rp993.8 trillion, the slowest pace this series has tracked, and Consumer loans - the segment closest to BCA's retail brand - actually shrank 2.0% year-over-year, the first outright decline in any of the four reported segments since they started being tracked separately.

Cheap deposits funding a shrinking part of the loan book is not, by itself, a crisis - a bank sitting on excess low-cost funding while loan demand softens is a comfortable place to be relative to a bank scrambling for deposits to fund aggressive lending. But it does mean BCA's own operating momentum this quarter (net profit still up 3.8% YoY to Rp14.7 trillion, pre-provision operating profit^» up 4.4%) doesn't explain what the market did with the stock: shares fell 24.1% year-over-year and 20.1% quarter-over-quarter to Rp6,450, a far bigger move than a mid-single-digit growth deceleration alone would typically justify (see Stock Price and Valuation).

The Prescription

BCA should keep leaning into what's actually working - Corporate lending, which grew 9.1% YoY to Rp483.8 trillion and remains the fastest-growing segment for a fifth straight quarter, funded almost entirely by the CASA base described above rather than by more expensive wholesale funding. That combination (investment-grade corporate growth, funded by near-zero-cost retail deposits) is close to the best possible economics a bank can have, and it's worth the bank saying so more explicitly to a market currently pricing it at a two-year-low multiple. What BCA should stop doing is treating vehicle lending as a segment that will recover on its own - the sub-segment fell 19.7% year-over-year and 4.8% quarter-over-quarter to Rp53.9 trillion, the sharpest and most sustained decline of any loan category in this series, and it has now dragged the entire Consumer segment into outright contraction. A bank whose other three segments and Corporate sub-lines are all growing has the balance-sheet room to either reprice or actively rebuild this book instead of letting it keep shrinking as a rounding error next to Corporate's growth.

Key Financial Metrics

Q1 2026 vs. Q1 2025 (consolidated, unaudited three-month figures, ended 31 March)

FX: IDR 16,994.5 = USD 1 (31 March 2026, per BCA's own filed financial statements' Reuters middle-rate disclosure) - a 2.6% Rupiah depreciation from Mar 2025's Rp16,560.0.

Metric	Q1 2026 (IDR)	Q1 2026 (USD)	Q1 2025 (IDR)*	YoY
Net Interest Income (+ sharia)	Rp21,108,433M	~$1,242.0M	Rp21,118,560M	⚠️ -0.05%
Non-interest income (net, incl. insurance)	Rp6,873,557M	~$404.4M	Rp6,018,466M	✅ +14.2%
Net Revenue (NII + net non-interest income)	Rp27,981,990M	~$1,646.4M	Rp27,137,026M	✅ +3.1%
Operating Income (PPOP, consolidated)	Rp19,309,347M	~$1,136.1M	Rp18,486,694M	✅ +4.4%
Net Income (attributable to owners)	Rp14,684,123M	~$863.9M	Rp14,146,131M	✅ +3.8%
EPS (quarterly, consolidated)	Rp119	~$0.007	Rp115	✅ +3.5%

*Q1 2025 comparative figures are this quarter's own filed restatement, which reclassifies insurance income under SFAS 117 (IFRS 17 equivalent, adopted for FY2025 - see FY2025's post); they differ slightly in the non-interest-income split from the originally reported Q1 2025 figures, though net income and PPOP are unaffected.

Net income's 3.8% YoY growth roughly tracked PPOP's own 4.4%, with the small gap coming from impairment losses on assets rising 19.5% YoY (Rp1,031,032M to Rp1,232,275M) - broadly in line with the quarter's loan growth rather than a sign of fresh credit deterioration on its own. Standalone quarterly net profit of Rp14,684,123 million is up modestly from Q4 2025's Rp14,139,872 million (+3.8% QoQ), continuing BCA's recent pattern of Q1 recovering from a softer Q4.

Balance sheet metric	Mar 2026 (IDR)	Mar 2026 (USD)	Mar 2025 (IDR)	YoY
Total Assets	Rp1,640,830,566M	~$96.55B	Rp1,533,763,445M	✅ +7.0%
Third Party Funds (deposits, incl. sharia)*	~Rp1,292,400,000M	~$76.05B	~Rp1,193,400,000M	✅ +8.3%
CASA» (demand + savings deposits)*	~Rp1,089,100,000M	~$64.08B	~Rp979,200,000M	✅ +11.2%
Total Loans (outstanding, incl. sharia)*	~Rp993,800,000M	~$58.48B	~Rp941,200,000M	✅ +5.6%
Total Equity (attributable to owners)	Rp259,132,407M	~$15.25B	Rp246,325,028M	✅ +5.2%

*Third Party Funds, CASA, and Total Loans per BCA's own investor presentation (consolidated, including sharia financing), the same sourcing convention used since Sep 2019's post.

Total equity attributable to owners fell 7.9% quarter-over-quarter from Dec 2025's Rp281,466,478M - the same annual dividend-accrual mechanism this series has flagged every Q1 since Q1 2024's post, compounded this year by a much larger treasury-stock buyback (treasury stock grew from Rp2,152,514M at Dec 2025 to Rp3,256,668M at Mar 2026, an incremental ~Rp1.1 trillion of shares repurchased). Bank-only CAR^» shows a similar seasonal pattern, at 27.0% versus Dec 2025's 29.8%. Operating cash flow was Rp47,920,728M (~$2,819.6M), up 36.2% from Q1 2025's Rp35,183,351M, driven by a larger net deposit inflow this quarter. Capital expenditure on fixed assets (Rp238,418M) and right-of-use assets (Rp196,795M) remained a small fraction of operating cash flow, as is typical for a bank whose cash flow is dominated by loan and deposit movements rather than capex. Cash and cash equivalents closed the quarter at Rp117,065,497M (~$6,887.4M), up 0.9% YoY.

Key Operational Metrics

Bank-only unless noted, from BCA's own investor presentation and financial-ratio disclosures:

• CASA to Total Funding (bank-only): 85.2% (Mar 2026) vs Dec 2025's 84.6% ✅ +0.6pp, and up 2.3pp YoY from Mar 2025's 82.9%.
• LDR^»: 74.1% (Mar 2026) vs Dec 2025's 76.8% ✅ -2.7pp - the same Q1 seasonal deposit-inflow pattern last year's post called "a seasonal breather" recurred, and this year's ratio (74.1%) is actually lower than last year's equivalent Q1 reading (76.1%) - a second data point that the relief isn't purely seasonal noise.
• NIM^»: 5.4% (Mar 2026) vs 5.8% (Mar 2025) ⚠️ -0.4pp, and down 0.2pp QoQ from Dec 2025's 5.6% - consistent with the industry-wide NIM pressure BCA's own presentation cites this quarter, not something specific to BCA's book.
• Risk-Adjusted NIM (NIM - Cost of Credit): 4.8% (Mar 2026) vs 5.3% (Mar 2025) ⚠️ -0.5pp.
• ROA^»: 4.1% (Mar 2026) vs headline 4.3% (Mar 2025) ⚠️ -0.2pp - but Mar 2025's headline figure was itself inflated by a one-off subsidiary dividend that last year's post flagged (adjusted Mar 2025 ROA: 3.7%); on that comparable basis, ROA actually improved this quarter.
• ROE^»: 25.1% (Mar 2026) vs headline 26.2% (Mar 2025) ⚠️ -1.1pp - same one-off distortion; Mar 2025's adjusted ROE was 22.7%, so the comparable-basis move is a +2.4pp improvement, not a decline.
• Cost-to-Income Ratio^»: 27.3% (Mar 2026) vs headline 28.5% (Mar 2025) ✅ -1.2pp - and Mar 2025's dividend-adjusted CIR was 30.9%, so the real improvement is a fuller 3.6 percentage points once last year's one-off is stripped out.
• CAR^» (bank-only): 27.0% (Mar 2026) vs Dec 2025's 29.8% - the recurring Q1 dividend/buyback pattern, not a capital-quality concern.
• NPL ratio - gross (bank-only): 1.8% (Mar 2026) vs Dec 2025's 1.7% ⚠️ +0.1pp, still better than Mar 2025's 2.0%.
• NPL Coverage (bank-only): 174.6% (Mar 2026) vs Dec 2025's 183.8% ⚠️ -9.2pp QoQ, and down from Mar 2025's 180.1% - the third straight Q1 in this series where coverage has fallen from a stronger year-end reading.
• Cost of Credit^» (bank-only): 0.6% (Mar 2026) vs 0.4% (Dec 2025) and 0.5% (Mar 2025) - the highest quarterly reading in over a year.
• Loan at Risk^» (bank-only, on & off-balance-sheet): 5.1% (Mar 2026) vs Dec 2025's 4.8% ⚠️ +0.3pp, still below Mar 2025's 6.0%.
• NSFR^»: 159.9% (Mar 2026) vs Dec 2025's 158.8%, comfortably above the 100% regulatory minimum.
• Liquidity Coverage Ratio: 305.7% (Mar 2026) vs Dec 2025's 310.8%, also well above the regulatory floor.
• Wealth Management AUM: Rp319 trillion (Mar 2026), up 14% YoY - government bonds and mutual funds remain the two largest components, with the presentation citing mutual funds as the fastest-growing piece (+56% YoY) off a smaller base.

Q1 is typically a seasonally lighter quarter for BCA's Consumer new-loan bookings, as this series has noted in prior Q1 posts - worth keeping in mind alongside the segment detail below, though the scale and direction of this quarter's vehicle-loan decline goes well beyond a normal seasonal dip (see Vehicle Lending's Sustained Collapse).

Segment Performance

BCA continues reporting four lending lines on a fully separated basis (consolidated, per this quarter's investor presentation): Corporate, Commercial, SME, and Consumer.

Corporate

Corporate loans reached Rp483.8 trillion (Mar 2026), up 9.1% year-over-year and 0.5% quarter-over-quarter - again the fastest-growing segment, extending the multi-quarter run this series has tracked. Investment-loan facilities grew to Rp330 trillion (+16% YoY), with utilization holding around 80-81%, while working-capital facilities grew a smaller 5% YoY at roughly 65% utilization - the growth continues to be concentrated in longer-duration investment lending rather than short-term working capital.

Commercial

Commercial loans reached Rp145.2 trillion (Mar 2026), up 5.7% year-over-year and 0.6% quarter-over-quarter - the second-fastest segment this quarter after several quarters of being the slowest, a modest reordering rather than a dramatic shift.

SME

SME loans reached Rp131.1 trillion (Mar 2026), up 5.4% year-over-year and 0.2% quarter-over-quarter, continuing to grow roughly in line with, rather than clearly ahead of, industry SME lending this quarter - a narrower gap than several previous quarters in this series.

Consumer

Consumer loans fell to Rp221.4 trillion (Mar 2026), down 2.0% year-over-year and 1.3% quarter-over-quarter - the first outright year-over-year decline any of the four segments has posted in this series. Mortgages held up (Rp142.4 trillion, +5.2% YoY, +0.1% QoQ) and personal loans grew modestly (Rp25.1 trillion, +6.8% YoY), but vehicle lending cratered to Rp53.9 trillion, down 19.7% year-over-year and 4.8% quarter-over-quarter - see Beyond the Usual for how sustained this decline now is. Sharia financing, still the smallest reported line, again grew the fastest of any category at +20.2% YoY to Rp13.2 trillion, though off a small base.

Segment Comparison

Segment	Mar 2026 (Rp tn)	Mar 2025 (Rp tn)	YoY	Dec 2025 (Rp tn)	QoQ	Share (Mar 2026)
Corporate	483.8	443.4	✅ +9.1%	481.4	✅ +0.5%	48.7%
Commercial	145.2	137.4	✅ +5.7%	144.3	✅ +0.6%	14.6%
SME	131.1	124.5	✅ +5.4%	130.9	✅ +0.2%	13.2%
Consumer	221.4	225.9	⚠️ -2.0%	224.2	⚠️ -1.3%	22.3%
Total (four segments, consolidated)	993.8	941.2*	✅ +5.6%	992.9	✅ +0.1%	100.0%

*This quarter's own Mar 2025 comparative for Consumer (Rp225.9tn) differs marginally from Q1 2025's post (Rp225.7tn), a rounding-level reclassification, not a restatement worth its own finding.

All four segments had grown both YoY and QoQ simultaneously for six straight quarters through Dec 2025; this quarter breaks that streak, with Consumer now moving in the opposite direction from the other three on both measures.

Beyond the Usual

This quarter's downloaded document is the unaudited interim financial statements, which carry footnote detail on restructured loans, commitments and contingencies, and related-party transactions - narrower in scope than the annual report's legal-cases disclosure, but still enough to surface real findings.

Vehicle Lending's Sustained Collapse Is Now Dragging the Whole Consumer Segment Negative

Vehicle lending fell to Rp53.9 trillion as of 31 March 2026, down 19.7% year-over-year and 4.8% quarter-over-quarter from Dec 2025's Rp56.6 trillion - and the sub-segment has now declined every quarter for at least a year, per BCA's own presentation, which shows the balance falling from Rp67.1 trillion (Mar 2025) through Rp56.6 trillion (Dec 2025) to this quarter's Rp53.9 trillion. This is no longer a single soft quarter: it's a sustained, multi-quarter contraction in one of BCA's oldest consumer-lending products, and it's now large enough (a roughly Rp13.2 trillion decline in a year) to pull the entire Consumer segment into its first outright year-over-year contraction in this series. BCA's presentation doesn't attribute a specific cause, but the timing coincides with a broader Indonesian auto-financing slowdown reported across the sector; a reader should watch whether BCA's other multi-finance subsidiaries show the same pattern before concluding it's purely industry-wide rather than BCA-specific underwriting caution.

The Restructured Loan Book's Worst Tier Ticked Back Up After Year-End's Sharp Improvement

The consolidated restructured-loan book's worst tier (Sub-standard + Doubtful + Loss) rose to Rp8,704,646 million as of 31 March 2026, up 1.8% quarter-over-quarter from Dec 2025's Rp8,548,321 million - and within that, the Doubtful tier alone rose 11.0% QoQ (Rp350,589M to Rp389,099M), reversing FY2025's sharp 53.4% QoQ improvement in that same tier. The total restructured book actually shrank slightly overall (Rp25,851,079M to Rp25,351,106M, -1.9% QoQ), with the improvement concentrated in the Current tier - so this isn't a broad deterioration in restructured credit quality, but the worst-tier uptick is worth tracking into Q2 2026 to see whether Dec 2025's improvement was a genuine turn or a year-end-only reading, a pattern this series has now seen more than once.

This Quarter's Bank-Only Ratio Improvements Are Real, Once Last Year's One-Off Dividend Is Stripped Out

BCA's headline bank-only ROA, ROE, and cost-to-income ratio all look flat-to-worse year-over-year on their face (see Key Operational Metrics) - but that comparison is against Mar 2025's ratios, which this series' own prior post flagged as inflated by a one-off Rp2.2 trillion subsidiary dividend BCA received that quarter. Once that one-off is excluded from the year-ago base, all three ratios actually improved this quarter (ROA +0.4pp, ROE +2.4pp, CIR -3.6pp on a comparable basis) rather than declining. This is a case where two consecutive posts' due diligence compounds: the earlier post's footnote-level finding is what makes this quarter's headline year-over-year comparison readable correctly at all.

Coverage Table

Metric	Q1 2026	Q1 2025	YoY	Why it matters
Consolidated Loans (incl. sharia)	~Rp993.8tn	~Rp941.2tn	✅ +5.6%	Slowest pace this series has tracked
Consumer segment loans	Rp221.4tn	Rp225.9tn	⚠️ -2.0%	First outright segment contraction on record here
CASA	~Rp1,089.1tn	~Rp979.2tn	✅ +11.2%	Cheapest funding mix this series has seen
Bank-only LDR	74.1%	76.1%	✅ -2.0pp	Below last year's already-eased Q1 reading
Bank-only NIM	5.4%	5.8%	⚠️ -0.4pp	Industry-wide pressure, per BCA's own deck
Vehicle lending	Rp53.9tn	Rp67.1tn	⚠️ -19.7%	Now a year-long, not one-quarter, decline
Net Income (attributable)	Rp14,684.1bn	Rp14,146.1bn	✅ +3.8%	Growth intact despite the loan slowdown

Target Valuation Range

P/E of ~13.7x and P/B of ~3.1x - BCA looks moderately undervalued on trailing multiples relative to its own recent history - both P/E and P/B have compressed to roughly two-year lows even as profit kept growing - but the discount is at least partly earned given the loan-growth deceleration and Consumer-segment contraction this quarter, not purely a case of the market being wrong.

BCA's shares closed at Rp6,450 on 31 March 2026, down 24.1% year-over-year from Mar 2025's Rp8,500 close and down 20.1% quarter-over-quarter from Dec 2025's Rp8,075. Over the trailing two years, shares ranged from this quarter's own Rp6,450 low (a new two-year low) to Aug/Sep 2024's Rp10,325 high - a peak-to-trough swing of roughly 37.5%, above the threshold this series uses to warrant its own price discussion. BCA's last stock split (1:5) took effect 13 October 2021, well before this window, so no further split adjustment applies to these prices.

The decline has been fairly steady rather than a single-quarter shock: Rp10,325 (Sep 2024) to Rp9,675 (Dec 2024) to Rp8,500 (Mar 2025) to Rp8,075 (Dec 2025) to Rp6,450 (Mar 2026) - a persistent multi-quarter de-rating that has outpaced the modest deceleration in BCA's own operating growth over the same period, consistent with a broader pullback across Indonesian bank valuations (BCA's own presentation notes net foreign portfolio outflows stabilizing only recently) rather than a single BCA-specific catalyst.

• P/E^»: ~13.7x, using trailing four quarters' net profit attributable to owners (Rp14,870.3bn + Rp14,381.0bn + Rp14,139.9bn + Rp14,684.1bn = Rp58,075.3bn, Q2 2025 through Q1 2026, each standalone quarter derived from BCA's own cumulative interim/annual filings) against the Rp6,450 close and 122,876,240,600 shares outstanding (123,275,050,000 issued less 398,809,400 treasury shares) - down sharply from Mar 2025's ~18.7x, as the price decline far outpaced trailing-earnings growth.
• P/B^»: ~3.1x, using book value per share of Rp2,109 (total equity attributable to owners, Rp259,132,407 million, divided by the same 122,876,240,600 shares outstanding) - down from Mar 2025's ~4.25x.

Market cap → book value	Q1 2026
Share price (period-end)	Rp6,450
Shares outstanding (net of treasury shares)	122,876,240,600
Market capitalization	Rp792,552B (~$46.63B)
Book value (equity attributable to owners)	Rp259,132B (~$15.25B)
P/B»	~3.1x

P/E and P/B	FY2025	Q1 2026 (TTM)	Change
EPS (TTM)	Rp466.7	Rp472.6	✅ up
P/E»	~17.3x	~13.7x	✅ down
Book value per share	Rp2,284	Rp2,109	⚠️ down
P/B»	~3.54x	~3.1x	✅ down

A full DCF still isn't attempted here, for the same reason as every prior post in this series - BCA's durable growth rate is easier to describe qualitatively (CASA-funded Corporate growth, offset by a shrinking Consumer book) than to pin to a single confident multi-year cash-flow forecast, and no other IDX bank in this backlog yet has a post covering the same March 2026 quarter for a peer-multiple comparison. At ~13.7x trailing earnings and ~3.1x book, BCA is cheaper than at any point in this series' history - a reasonable outcome given this quarter's genuine slowdown in loan growth and the Consumer segment's first outright contraction, but not obviously a bargain given the same numbers.

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