BBCA Two of 2022's Threads Finally Untangle, a Third Gets Worse

Corporate Comes Back, the Restructured Book Turns, and the Annual Filing Finally Shows Its Work

Q3's post left two threads open going into year-end: Corporate loans had contracted 1.3% quarter-over-quarter for the first time since Q1, and the restructured loan book's worst collectability tier had grown for a fifth straight quarter, albeit at its slowest pace yet. Both resolved in Q4, and in the direction a reader following this series would have hoped for. Corporate loans grew 5.3% quarter-over-quarter to Rp322,176 billion, reversing Q3's stall entirely and pulling total loan growth back up to 4.3% QoQ from Q3's 1.0%. And the restructured book's NPL tier - which this series has tracked growing every single quarter since mid-2021 - fell 11.5% quarter-over-quarter to Rp9.5 trillion, its first decline in five quarters (see Beyond the Usual for the caveat that matters here).

The full-year numbers are straightforwardly strong on top of that: standalone Q4 net profit rose 8.0% QoQ to Rp11,781 billion, a fourth consecutive quarter of sequential growth, while bank-only NIM widened again to a fresh record 5.9% (from Q3's 5.4%) as Bank Indonesia kept hiking through year-end. Full-year net profit reached Rp40,736 billion, up 29.6% YoY from FY2021's Rp31,423 billion - the fastest annual growth this series has recorded for BCA. Gross NPL (bank-only) improved a full percentage point YoY to 1.7% from 2.2%, and NPL coverage hit a record 287.3%.

This is also the first quarter this series has had BCA's actual annual report in hand rather than the unaudited interim OJK filing every prior quarter relied on - the difference matters, because the annual filing carries real footnotes (related-party transactions, off-balance-sheet commitment quality, appropriation of earnings) that the interim format simply doesn't disclose. Mining those turned up a genuine new concern sitting right alongside the two resolved threads: the quality of BCA's undrawn commitments and guarantees - the exposure that isn't a loan yet but could become one - deteriorated sharply even as every on-balance-sheet asset-quality ratio kept improving (see Beyond the Usual).

The Prescription

BCA earned the credit this quarter for actually reversing, rather than merely decelerating, both of the threads Q3 left open. Keep pushing the CASA^» advantage into further NIM expansion for as long as the rate cycle allows it - CASA reached 81.6% of deposits at year-end, and a fourth straight quarter of NIM widening (4.9% → 5.0% → 5.4% → 5.9%) shows this isn't a one-off repricing bump but a genuinely compounding advantage over any bank funding itself more expensively. Corporate's return to growth alongside that margin expansion is the best combination BCA has posted all year - lean into it rather than assume either holds automatically into 2023.

What BCA should stop doing: treating "the restructured book improved" and "commitment quality improved" as the same sentence. They aren't, this quarter. The restructured loan NPL tier finally fell, and gross NPL and LAR both improved to fresh lows - genuinely good news, covered above. But the same annual filing's own commitments-and-contingencies note shows Stage 2 (underperforming, not yet defaulted) exposure on BCA's off-balance-sheet book - undrawn credit lines, unused facilities, guarantees - jumped from Rp9.7 billion to Rp144.2 billion in a single year, a near-15x increase that the on-balance-sheet NPL and LAR ratios never touch because none of it has been drawn down yet (see Beyond the Usual). A reader taking this quarter's headline ratios at face value would miss that entirely. BCA doesn't need to sound an alarm over a number this small in absolute terms, but it should stop letting a footnote-only metric move this fast without a word of context in the presentation that actually gets read.

Key Financial Metrics

FY2022 vs. FY2021 (P&L, consolidated audited annual figures), and 31 December 2022 vs. 31 December 2021 (balance sheet, consolidated audited)

FX: IDR 15,567.5 = USD 1 (31 December 2022, per BCA's own audited financial statements' Reuters middle-rate disclosure) - a further 2.1% Rupiah depreciation from Q3 2022's Rp15,227.5.

This is BCA's first annual, audited financial report in this series' 2022 coverage - unlike every interim quarter this year, it carries the full notes to the financial statements: related-party transactions, appropriation of earnings, off-balance-sheet commitment quality by credit stage, and the audited operating-segment note. See Beyond the Usual for what those notes turned up.

Metric	FY2022 (IDR)	FY2022 (USD)	FY2021 (IDR)	YoY
Net Interest Income	Rp63,989,509M	~$4,111.0M	Rp56,135,575M	✅ +14.0%
Non-interest income (gross)	Rp23,486,808M	~$1,508.9M	Rp22,337,794M	✅ +5.1%
Net Revenue (Operating Income, NII + non-interest)	Rp87,476,317M	~$5,619.9M	Rp78,473,369M	✅ +11.5%
Operating Income (PPOP», consolidated)	Rp54,993,652M	~$3,532.4M	Rp48,165,169M	✅ +14.2%
Net Income (attributable to owners)	Rp40,735,722M	~$2,616.9M	Rp31,422,660M	✅ +29.6%
EPS (full year, consolidated)	Rp330	~$0.0212	Rp255	✅ +29.4%

Net profit's 29.6% YoY growth is the fastest full-year pace this series has recorded for BCA, comfortably ahead of 9M 2022's already-strong 24.8% - Q4 alone did the heavy lifting on that acceleration. Standalone Q4 net profit reached Rp11,781 billion, up 8.0% QoQ from Q3's Rp10,905 billion, the fourth consecutive quarter of sequential growth (Rp8,064bn → Rp9,985bn → Rp10,905bn → Rp11,781bn) - a streak now covering the entire calendar year. Provisioning expense (bank-only, per the presentation) rose back to Rp609 billion in Q4 from Q3's Rp191 billion, pushing bank-only cost of credit up to 0.4% from Q3's essentially-zero 0.0% - the first uptick after three straight quarters of decline, though still far below Q1's 1.9% peak.

Balance sheet metric	Dec 2022 (IDR)	Dec 2022 (USD)	Dec 2021 (IDR)	YoY
Total Assets	Rp1,314,731,674M	~$84.45B	Rp1,228,344,680M	✅ +7.0%
Third Party Funds (deposits)*	Rp1,039,718,018M	~$66.79B	Rp975,948,771M	✅ +6.5%
CASA*	Rp847,938,000M	~$54.47B	Rp767,012,000M	✅ +10.6%
Total Loans (outstanding)*	Rp711,262,000M	~$45.69B	Rp636,987,000M	✅ +11.7%
Total Equity (attributable to owners)	Rp221,018,606M	~$14.20B	Rp202,712,762M	✅ +9.0%

*Third Party Funds, CASA, and Total Loans (outstanding, consolidated including sharia financing) per BCA's own investor presentation, the same sourcing convention used since Sep 2019's post.

Total loans grew 11.7% for the year and, more notably, 4.3% quarter-over-quarter - a sharp acceleration from Q3's 1.0%, entirely on the back of Corporate's return to growth (see Segment Comparison). Equity grew 9.0% for the year even after Rp19.1 trillion in cash dividends went out the door (see Beyond the Usual for the mechanics of how that was split across two payments). Full-year operating cash flow was Rp33,779,263M (~$2,169.7M), down sharply from FY2021's Rp126,186,318M but a genuine improvement on the nine-month run rate - 9M 2022's own operating cash flow was Rp17,941,627M, implying Q4 alone contributed roughly +Rp15,837,636M (~$1,017.4M) of positive operating cash flow, a sharp swing back from Q3's standalone -Rp56.15 trillion reverse-repo-driven outflow. Cash and cash equivalents closed the year at Rp160,422,371M (~$10.31B), up 4.3% from Q3's Rp153,873,898M but still 9.5% below Dec 2021's Rp177,268,685M.

Key Operational Metrics

Bank-only (individual) unless noted, from BCA's own filed financial-ratio disclosures and investor presentation:

• CASA ratio: 81.6% (Dec 2022, consolidated, per BCA's own investor presentation) vs Sep 2022's 81.0% ✅ - a fresh high, the gain holding up even as the YoY pace itself has clearly slowed over the year.
• LDR^» (LFR in BCA's own terminology): 65.2% (Dec 2022, per the presentation) vs 63.3% (Sep 2022) ⚠️ - a real jump, loan growth (4.3% QoQ) now outrunning deposit growth for the first time in several quarters.
• NIM^»: 5.9% (Dec 2022, quarterly, per the presentation) vs 5.4% (Sep 2022, quarterly) ✅ - a fourth straight quarter of widening and a fresh record for this series.
• ROA^»: 3.7% (Dec 2022, quarterly, per the presentation) vs 3.4% (Sep 2022, quarterly) ✅.
• ROE^»: 24.7% (Dec 2022, quarterly, per the presentation) vs 22.7% (Sep 2022, quarterly) ✅ - a fresh high for the year.
• CAR^» (bank-only): 25.8% (Dec 2022, per the presentation) vs 25.4% (Sep 2022) ✅ - comfortably above the 9.99% individual KPMM requirement.
• NPL ratio - gross (bank-only, point-in-time): 1.7% (31 Dec 2022, per BCA's presentation) vs 2.2% (30 Sep 2022) ✅ - a full percentage point better than Dec 2021's 2.2%, the largest annual improvement this series has recorded for this ratio.
• NPL Coverage (Provision/NPL, bank-only): 287.3% (Dec 2022, per the presentation) vs Sep 2022's 247.9% ✅ - a record for this series, and a sixth straight quarter of sequential rebuild since Q3 2021's trough.
• Cost-to-Income Ratio^»: 32.5% (Dec 2022, quarterly, per the presentation) vs 34.8% (Sep 2022) ✅ - back near Q2's low.
• Cost of credit (bank-only): 0.4% (Q4 2022, per the presentation) vs 0.0% (Q3 2022) ⚠️ - the first uptick after three straight quarters of decline; still very low against Q1's 1.9% peak, but worth watching whether it keeps rising.
• Loan at Risk^» (ex-Covid, share of total loans): 10.0% (Dec 2022, per the presentation) vs Sep 2022's 11.7%, a further improvement and a fresh low for this series.
• LAR Coverage with Restructured Covid & off-B/S: 53.8% (Dec 2022) vs Sep 2022's 49.9%, continuing the QoQ improvement.

The coverage-ratio gap this series has tracked since 2021 - Provision/NPL coverage minus LAR-including-Covid coverage - actually widened this quarter to 233.5 percentage points (287.3% minus 53.8%), up from Sep 2022's 198.0pp, reversing the narrowing trend the last two quarters had shown. That's not concerning on its own - it's arithmetic: NPL coverage rebuilt faster (+39.4pp QoQ) than LAR coverage improved (+3.9pp QoQ), because the NPL base itself kept shrinking. But it's the same structural point every quarter this series has made: a headline ratio moving favorably doesn't automatically mean the underlying risk pool - the restructured book still sitting at Rp62.2 trillion, per Beyond the Usual - is shrinking at the same pace.

Segment Performance

BCA reports three lending segments (consolidated, per this quarter's investor presentation): Corporate, Commercial & SME, and Consumer. Q3's post documented Corporate's first QoQ contraction since Q1; this quarter reverses that completely, and it's Corporate, not Commercial & SME, doing the reversing this time.

Corporate

Corporate loans stood at Rp322,176 billion (Dec 2022), up 12.5% year-over-year and 5.3% quarter-over-quarter - a full reversal of Q3's 1.3% QoQ contraction, and the fastest sequential growth this segment has posted all year. Its share of the total book recovered to 45.3% from Sep 2022's 44.9%, back in line with the 45-46% range it held through most of the year before Q3's dip.

Commercial & SME

Commercial & SME loans reached Rp210,162 billion (Dec 2022), up 10.1% year-over-year and 3.2% quarter-over-quarter - a fourth straight quarter of growth, though decelerating slightly from Q3's 3.0% QoQ. See Beyond the Usual for why this segment's YoY figure still doesn't reconcile cleanly against its own year-ago disclosure - for a third straight quarter.

Consumer

Consumer loans reached Rp171,347 billion (Dec 2022), up 11.7% year-over-year (see Beyond the Usual for the same reconciliation issue affecting this segment) and 3.9% quarter-over-quarter - continuing steady growth and, for a third straight quarter, growing slightly faster than Commercial & SME on a QoQ basis. Within Consumer, mortgages grew to Rp108,299 billion (+3.1% QoQ, +11.0% YoY) and vehicle lending to Rp46,128 billion (+5.4% QoQ, +13.6% YoY) - vehicle lending's YoY new-booking growth (13.6%) is now the strongest reading this series has recorded for that book.

Segment Comparison

Segment	Dec 2022 (Rp bn)	Dec 2021 (Rp bn, own contemporaneous figure)	BCA's Dec-22 presentation's restated Dec-21 figure	Implied YoY vs. contemporaneous	Sep 2022 (Rp bn)	QoQ	Share (Dec 2022)
Corporate	322,176	286,503	286,490	+12.5%	306,065	✅ +5.3%	45.3%
Commercial & SME	210,162	195,828	190,882	+10.1%*	203,547	✅ +3.2%	29.5%
Consumer	171,347	148,408	153,367	+11.7%*	164,965	✅ +3.9%	24.1%
Total (three segments, consolidated)	703,685	630,739	630,739	+11.6%	674,577	✅ +4.3%	98.9%**

*BCA's own stated YoY growth rate, using its restated Dec-21 comparative - the implied growth against Dec 2021's own contemporaneously-reported figure would instead be +7.3% for Commercial & SME and +15.5% for Consumer, given the unreconciled gap explained in Beyond the Usual. **Remaining ~1.1% is sharia financing (Rp7,577bn), reported separately from the three core lending segments; the consolidated total-loans figure elsewhere in this post (Rp711,262bn) includes that sharia book. Corporate's own Dec-2021 figure is consistent to within single-digit rounding across both quarters' restatements - the gap sits entirely inside Commercial & SME and Consumer.

Corporate's return to growth is the whole story behind this quarter's much faster 4.3% QoQ total loan growth (up from Q3's 1.0%) - all three segments accelerated or held steady, but Corporate's swing from -1.3% to +5.3% QoQ is what actually moved the consolidated number. Q3's post left open whether Corporate's stall was a deliberate run-off, a seasonal pattern, or a genuine pullback - this quarter's clean rebound argues for the first two explanations over the third, though one quarter of recovery still isn't definitive either way.

Beyond the Usual

This is the first full audited annual report this series has had for BCA's 2022 quarters - unlike every interim OJK filing used all year, it carries the deeper notes to the financial statements: transactions and balances with related parties, the appropriation of net income, off-balance-sheet commitment quality by expected-credit-loss stage, and the audited operating-segment note (which, notably, doesn't use the Corporate/Commercial & SME/Consumer split at all - see below). The findings below come from those notes.

Off-Balance-Sheet Commitment Quality Deteriorated Sharply Even as Every On-Balance-Sheet Ratio Improved

BCA's estimated-losses-from-commitments-and-contingencies note - covering undrawn credit facilities, outstanding letters of credit, and bank guarantees the Bank hasn't yet funded - discloses a staged breakdown for the first time this series has had access to. Stage 1 (performing) exposure rose only modestly, from Rp3,178,502 million to Rp3,237,294 million, but Stage 2 (underperforming, not yet credit-impaired) exposure jumped from Rp9,657 million to Rp144,230 million - a nearly 15-fold increase in a single year, driven mostly by Rp199,618 million of exposure BCA itself reclassified out of Stage 1 into Stage 2 during the year (per the note's own transfer schedule), with only a small amount migrating back down. Stage 3 (credit-impaired) exposure also grew, from Rp51,012 million to Rp56,825 million. None of this shows up in the gross NPL ratio, NPL coverage, or LAR figures discussed above - those all measure funded loans, not the undrawn commitments and guarantees this note covers - and BCA's own presentation doesn't disclose this staged commitment breakdown at all. In absolute terms, Rp144.2 billion of Stage 2 commitment exposure is small next to a Rp711 trillion loan book, but the rate of deterioration - a 14.9x jump in what a bank itself has flagged as a worsening exposure - is the kind of thing a headline "asset quality improved across the board" reading would miss entirely.

The Commercial & SME/Consumer Reconciliation Gap Recurs a Third Time, Still Unexplained - and Doesn't Exist in the Audited Statements At All

Q2's post first found that BCA's presentation restates prior-year Commercial & SME and Consumer loan figures differently from how those same figures were originally reported a year earlier, pointing to an undisclosed reclassification of roughly Rp4.7-5.0 trillion between the two segments. Q3's post found the same gap recur when the Sep-2022 presentation restated Sep-2021 figures. This quarter's presentation, restating Dec-2021 instead, shows it a third time: it states Commercial & SME at Rp190,882bn and Consumer at Rp153,367bn for Dec 2021, versus the Rp195,828bn and Rp148,408bn that quarter's own post recorded directly from BCA's own contemporaneous presentation - a swap of Rp4,946bn out of Commercial & SME and a nearly matching Rp4,959bn into Consumer. Corporate's own Dec-2021 figure, by contrast, is consistent to within single-digit rounding across every quarter's restatement. Three consecutive quarters of BCA's own presentation carrying the identical unexplained shift, now spanning both the Sep-2021 and Dec-2021 comparative periods, rules out a one-off transcription slip. What's new this quarter: having the actual audited annual report in hand confirms this split is presentation-only - the audited operating-segment note (Note 42) breaks BCA's book down by product (Loans/Treasury/Others) and by geography, never by the Corporate/Commercial & SME/Consumer lines the investor presentation uses. That means this reconciliation gap has never been, and currently cannot be, checked against an audited figure - it lives entirely inside unaudited investor-relations material that nonetheless drives every YoY segment growth rate this series (and presumably every other analyst) has had to work with all year.

The Restructured Book's Worst Tier Fell for the First Time in Five Quarters - But the Full Year Still Ends Higher Than It Started

BCA's Covid-19 restructured loan book (bank-only) fell to Rp62.2 trillion at Dec 2022, down 9.5% QoQ from Sep 2022's Rp68.8 trillion and 24.6% for the full year from Dec 2021's Rp82.5 trillion. The collectability breakdown this series has tracked every quarter since FY2021 shows the same NPL tier fell 11.5% quarter-over-quarter to Rp9.5 trillion, its first quarterly decline after five straight quarters of growth - Q1 2022's 16.1% QoQ growth had already decelerated to Q2's 2.1% and Q3's 1.3%, and this quarter it finally turned negative. The Current tier fell 10.3% QoQ and Special Mention fell 1.1% QoQ - the same tiers that drove the book's overall shrinkage all year - but this is the first quarter where the worst tier itself joined the decline rather than being the one part of the book still growing. Worth keeping in view, though: on a full-year basis the NPL tier is still 6.3% higher than Dec 2021's Rp8.9 trillion - the tier grew faster across Q1-Q3 than it fell in Q4, so this quarter is the start of a reversal, not yet proof the year's damage has been undone.

A Related-Party Office Lease Running to 2035 Shows Up in Full for the First Time

BCA's related-party note discloses a long-standing rental agreement with PT Grand Indonesia (a related party through common ownership), signed 11 April 2006 and running from 1 July 2007 to 30 September 2035, covering 28,166.88 sqm of office space for a total of USD 35,631,103.20 including VAT, with an option on a further 3,264.80 sqm for USD 4,129,972. As of 31 December 2022, the related right-of-use asset stood at Rp227,939 million (down from Rp248,556 million a year earlier as the lease amortises), of which Rp170,819 million has already been fully paid, and the outstanding finance lease obligation to PT Grand Indonesia was Rp58,593 million. This is the first time this series has had visibility into a specific, long-dated related-party lease commitment of this size - the interim OJK filings used all year don't carry a related-party note at this level of detail.

The Interim Dividend for 2022's Own Profits Was Declared and Paid Before the Year Even Closed

BCA's appropriation-of-earnings note shows the Rp19,107,633 million of cash dividends recorded in the FY2022 statement of changes in equity was actually two separate payments: the Rp14,793,006 million final tranche of the 2021 dividend (approved at the March 2022 AGM, paid 19 April 2022), plus a Rp4,314,627 million interim dividend for 2022's own profits - Rp35 per share, decided by the Board of Directors on 21 November 2022 and paid before the fiscal year had even ended. This mirrors the same mechanism BCA used a year earlier (a Rp25/share interim dividend for 2021, paid 7 December 2021, ahead of that year's own AGM) - a now-established pattern of returning a portion of the current year's earnings to shareholders mid-year rather than waiting for the following March's AGM to approve the full-year distribution.

BCA's Business Is Overwhelmingly a Java Bank, Even by Its Own Geographic Disclosure

The audited operating-segment note's geographic breakdown - Sumatera, Java, Kalimantan, East Indonesia, and overseas operations - shows Java alone contributed Rp45,145,383 million of BCA's Rp50,467,033 million consolidated income before tax for 2022, or 89.5% of the total, while holding Rp1,152,891,324 million of Rp1,314,731,674 million total assets (87.7%). Sumatera, Kalimantan, and East Indonesia combined contribute the remaining income roughly in proportion to their much smaller asset bases, and overseas operations - Rp1,420,926 million of assets - are a rounding error next to the rest of the book. None of this is surprising for a bank headquartered in and built around Jakarta, but it's a useful, rarely-seen quantification: BCA's "national" franchise is, on its own numbers, a Java bank with a modest national tail.

Coverage Table

Metric	FY2022	FY2021	YoY	Why it matters
Net profit (attributable to owners)	Rp40,736bn	Rp31,423bn	✅ +29.6%	Fastest annual growth this series has recorded for BCA
NIM (bank-only, quarterly, Q4)	5.9%	-	-	Fourth straight quarter of widening, a fresh record
Corporate loans (consolidated, QoQ)	+5.3%	-	-	Full reversal of Q3's first-ever QoQ contraction
Restructured loan NPL tier (bank-only, QoQ)	-11.5%	-	-	First quarterly decline after five straight quarters of growth
Stage 2 off-B/S commitment exposure	Rp144.2bn	Rp9.7bn	⚠️ +14.9x	Small in absolute terms, but the fastest-deteriorating metric this series has found all year

Target Valuation Range

P/E of ~25.9x and P/B of ~4.77x - Bottom line: BCA's shares are fairly valued to slightly rich here - trailing multiples are broadly in line with where they've sat all year, and this quarter's earnings and asset-quality improvements largely justify holding that level rather than arguing for a re-rating in either direction.

BCA's shares closed at Rp8,550 on December 30, 2022 - unchanged from Q3 2022's own Rp8,550 close, a flat quarter after Q3's 17.9% QoQ surge. That's still up 17.1% year-over-year from Dec 2021's Rp7,300 close. Over the trailing two years, shares are up 26.3% from Dec 2020's Rp6,770 close - a window that includes a trough of Rp5,970 in July 2021 and a new high of Rp9,300 reached in November 2022 before easing back to the year-end close, a peak-to-trough swing of roughly 56%, comfortably wide enough to warrant this dedicated section for a second straight quarter.

• P/E^»: ~25.9x, using full-year EPS of Rp330 against the Rp8,550 close - up slightly from Q3's ~24.2x annualized-quarterly estimate, since the flat share price combined with the full year's actual (rather than annualized) EPS lands close to where Q3's own run-rate had already pointed.
• P/B^»: ~4.77x, using book value per share of Rp1,793 (total equity attributable to owners, Rp221,018,606 million, divided by 123,275,050,000 shares outstanding, unchanged this quarter) - actually down from Q3's ~4.97x, as book value grew 4.3% QoQ while the share price stayed flat.

Market cap → book value	FY2022
Share price (period-end)	Rp8,550
Shares outstanding	123,275,050,000
Market capitalization	Rp1,054,002B (~$67.71B)
Book value (equity attributable to owners)	Rp221,019B (~$14.20B)
P/B»	~4.77x

P/E and P/B	Q3 2022 (annualized)	FY2022	Change
EPS	Rp353.9 (annualized)	Rp330 (actual)	⚠️ down (basis differs, see note above)
P/E»	~24.2x	~25.9x	⚠️ up
Book value per share	Rp1,719	Rp1,793	✅ up
P/B»	~4.97x	~4.77x	✅ down

A full DCF still isn't attempted here, for the same reason as every prior post in this series: while two of the year's live threads (Corporate lending, the restructured book's worst tier) resolved favorably this quarter, the off-balance-sheet commitment-quality finding above is new information this series hasn't had a chance to track across multiple quarters yet, and one quarter isn't enough to say whether it's noise or the start of something worth pricing in. The peer-multiple comparison this section would normally lean on also isn't available yet - no other IDX bank in this backlog has a post covering the same December 2022 year-end to compare against.

---