BBCA Did the Bank's Own Numbers Finally Stop Contradicting Themselves?

The Quarter Where the Deck and the Filed Numbers Stopped Disagreeing

Q3 2023's post closed on a genuine puzzle: BCA's own analyst presentation showed a standalone quarterly PPOP^» walk (Q1 Rp15.6tn, Q2 Rp16.1tn, Q3 Rp15.5tn) that didn't reconcile against what the bank's own filed cumulative interim statements implied for the same two quarters - gaps of roughly Rp1.9 trillion in each direction, large enough to flip the entire quarter-over-quarter story a reader would take away.

This quarter's own annual report and analyst presentation let that puzzle be tested one more time. FY2023's filed audited PPOP^» - income before tax plus impairment losses, the same definition this series has used every quarter - comes to Rp62,442,806 million. Subtracting the filed 9M 2023 cumulative figure of Rp47,301,739 million (from Q3's own post) leaves a filed-implied Q4 standalone PPOP of roughly Rp15,141 billion. BCA's own presentation states 4Q-23 PPOP at Rp15.4 trillion. The gap between the two is about Rp260 billion, under 2% - nowhere near the ~Rp1.9 trillion, ~12% gaps that made Q2 and Q3's standalone figures unreliable. See Beyond the Usual for the full arithmetic; the short version is that whatever produced last quarter's internal contradiction didn't recur in a way this post can detect with the two data points available this quarter, though BCA's deck still hasn't explained what caused the earlier gaps in the first place.

The rest of the quarter reads as a genuine turn on two fronts this series has tracked with concern since mid-2023. NPL Coverage^», which fell for two straight quarters to a series-low 226.9% at Sep 2023, rose to 234.1% at Dec 2023 - its first increase since Q1. And the restructured loan book's worst collectability tier, which had grown for five consecutive quarters through Sep 2023 to a new high of Rp12.07 trillion, fell to Rp10.70 trillion at Dec 2023 - the first decline in that specific tier since Q4 2022's post first found it falling. Full-year net income grew 19.4% YoY to Rp48,639 billion, with all four lending segments growing double digits for the year.

The Prescription

BCA's underlying machine - low-cost CASA^» funding a loan book growing double digits across every segment, with a new all-time-high share price to show for it - remains the strongest domestic-bank franchise this series covers, and it should keep compounding on exactly that basis rather than chasing a faster but riskier growth mix. But it should still stop publishing a standalone-quarter PPOP walk without a reconciliation footnote to its own filed cumulative statements - even though this quarter's version of the test came back close, the deck has never once explained why Q2 and Q3 2023's versions didn't, and a reader has no way to know in advance which quarter's disclosure to trust until someone runs the arithmetic after the fact. What BCA should stop doing specifically: treating the "smoothed" quarterly PPOP chart as self-evidently accurate rather than footnoting how it's derived. A bank whose entire pitch to analysts rests on disclosure quality shouldn't leave its own most-quoted profitability metric one arithmetic check away from an unexplained multi-quarter contradiction.

Key Financial Metrics

FY 2023 vs. FY 2022 (P&L, consolidated audited annual figures), and 31 December 2023 vs. 31 December 2022 (balance sheet, consolidated audited)

FX: IDR 15,397.0 = USD 1 (31 December 2023, per BCA's own filed financial statements' Reuters middle-rate disclosure) - a 0.4% Rupiah appreciation from Sep 2023's Rp15,455.0 and a 1.1% appreciation from Dec 2022's Rp15,567.5, reversing most of the pressure this series flagged building through Q3.

Metric	FY 2023 (IDR)	FY 2023 (USD)	FY 2022 (IDR)	YoY
Net Interest Income (+ sharia)	Rp75,128,822M	~$4,879.4M	Rp63,989,509M	✅ +17.4%
Non-interest income (gross)	Rp24,816,551M	~$1,611.8M	Rp23,486,808M	✅ +5.7%
Net Revenue (Operating Income, NII + non-interest)	Rp99,945,373M	~$6,491.2M	Rp87,476,317M	✅ +14.3%
Operating Income (PPOP, consolidated)	Rp62,442,806M	~$4,055.5M	Rp54,993,652M	✅ +13.5%
Net Income (attributable to owners)	Rp48,639,122M	~$3,159.0M	Rp40,735,722M	✅ +19.4%
EPS (FY, consolidated)	Rp395	~$0.0257	Rp330	✅ +19.7%

The full-year picture is broad-based: NII up 17.4% on both loan growth and a slightly higher rate environment, non-interest income up a more modest 5.7%, and net income again outrunning PPOP (+19.4% vs +13.5%) because full-year impairment losses fell 50.0% YoY (Rp4,526,619M to Rp2,263,049M, matching BCA's own presentation) - a real, disclosed provisioning tailwind rather than a hidden one, continuing the pattern 9M's post already flagged. BCA's own presentation states FY2023 PPOP at Rp62.6 trillion (13.9% YoY) versus this post's filed-statement figure of Rp62,442,806 million (13.5% YoY) - a difference of roughly 0.4 percentage points, small enough to read as rounding rather than a repeat of Beyond the Usual's quarterly-walk finding.

Balance sheet metric	Dec 2023 (IDR)	Dec 2023 (USD)	Dec 2022 (IDR)	YoY
Total Assets	Rp1,408,107,010M	~$91.45B	Rp1,314,731,674M	✅ +7.1%
Third Party Funds (deposits from customers)	Rp1,090,766,807M	~$70.84B	Rp1,030,451,783M	✅ +5.9%
CASA (demand + savings deposits)	Rp880,501,905M	~$57.18B	Rp844,316,203M	✅ +4.3%
Total Loans (outstanding, incl. sharia)*	Rp810,392,000M	~$52.63B	Rp711,262,000M	✅ +13.9%
Total Equity (attributable to owners)	Rp242,356,256M	~$15.74B	Rp221,018,606M	✅ +9.7%

*Total Loans per BCA's own annual report loan-composition table (consolidated, including sharia financing), the same sourcing convention used since Sep 2019's post.

Total equity (attributable to owners) grew a further 9.7% year-over-year, absorbing Rp26,195,948 million in cash dividends paid during 2023 (against FY2022's Rp40,735,722M net income - a roughly 64% payout ratio, up from FY2022's dividend of Rp19,107,633M against FY2021's earnings). Full-year operating cash flow was Rp58,115,466M (~$3,774.4M), up 72.1% from FY2022's Rp33,779,263M mostly on stronger interest/fee receipts and a large swing in securities-purchased-under-resale-agreement balances (+Rp60,869,260M this year versus -Rp6,900,307M in 2022). Cash and cash equivalents closed the year at Rp124,395,987M (~$8,079.2M), down 22.5% from Dec 2022's Rp160,422,371M, as a large acquisition-of-investment-securities outflow in investing activities (Rp162,676,803M) outweighed the strong operating cash generation.

Key Operational Metrics

Bank-only unless noted, from BCA's own filed financial-ratio disclosures and investor presentation, cross-checked against the OJK-format monthly disclosure filed for December 2023:

• CASA ratio: 80.3% (Dec 2023, bank-only) vs Sep 2023's 79.9% ✅ - the first quarterly rise after three straight quarterly dips, though still 1.3pp below FY2022's 81.6% full-year level.
• LDR^»: 70.2% (Dec 2023) vs 67.4% (Sep 2023) ⚠️ +2.8pp - the largest single-quarter move this series has recorded for this ratio, confirmed against the monthly OJK filing's own 70.20% figure, as loan growth (5.8% QoQ) again outpaced deposit growth (1.2% QoQ).
• NIM^»: 5.6% (Dec 2023, quarterly, bank-only) vs Sep 2023's 5.5% ✅ - a second straight quarter without further narrowing, now effectively flat since bottoming after Dec 2022's 5.9% record.
• ROA^»: 3.7% (Dec 2023, quarterly) vs 3.5% (Sep 2023) ✅ +0.2pp - a partial rebound after Q3's decline.
• ROE^»: 23.4% (Dec 2023, quarterly) vs 22.3% (Sep 2023) ✅ +1.1pp - also rebounding, though still short of Q2's series-record 26.1%.
• CAR^» (bank-only): 29.4% (Dec 2023) vs Sep 2023's 29.5% - effectively flat, confirmed against the monthly OJK filing's own 29.44% figure.
• NPL ratio - gross (bank-only, point-in-time): 1.9% (31 Dec 2023) vs 2.1% (30 Sep 2023, per this quarter's own presentation) ✅ - the monthly OJK filing states 1.86%, a modest improvement reversing a three-quarter uptick streak.
• NPL Coverage (Provision/NPL, bank-only): 234.1% (Dec 2023) vs Sep 2023's 226.9% ✅ +7.2pp - the first quarterly rise since Q1 2023, ending two straight quarters of sharp decline, though still well below Dec 2022's 286.9% and Mar 2023's 285.4% peak.
• Cost-to-Income Ratio^»: 36.5% (Dec 2023, quarterly) vs 36.1% (Sep 2023) ⚠️ +0.4pp - a fifth straight quarter without a real improvement, now well above FY2021-22's 33-35% range.
• Cost of credit (bank-only): -0.1% (Q4 2023, i.e. a net recovery) vs 0.3% (Q3 2023) ✅ - the strongest quarterly reading this series has recorded, consistent with the restructured book's NPL tier improving this quarter (see below).
• Loan at Risk^» (bank-only, includes on & off-balance-sheet): 6.9% (Dec 2023) vs Sep 2023's 7.6% ✅ - a fresh full-year low, continuing the multi-quarter improvement.
• Total Loan Coverage (incl. off-B/S) to LAR: 69.7% (Dec 2023) vs Sep 2023's 66.6% ✅ - continuing to climb, now the highest ratio this series has recorded.

The coverage-ratio gap this series has tracked since 2021 - Provision/NPL coverage minus Total-Loan-Coverage-to-LAR - narrowed sharply this quarter to 164.4 percentage points (234.1% minus 69.7%), continuing the gradual compression from Sep 2023's 160.3pp itself down from Jun 2023's 195.5pp - though this quarter, unlike the prior two, the narrowing reflects Provision/NPL coverage actually rising alongside LAR coverage, rather than the coverage-compression pattern (falling NPL coverage, modestly rising LAR coverage) this series flagged for two straight quarters. Seasonally, Q4 is BCA's strongest quarter for year-end loan-book cleanup and provisioning true-up under Indonesian banking practice, so some of this quarter's improvement in both cost of credit and the restructured NPL tier plausibly reflects routine year-end resolution activity rather than a structural change in underlying credit quality - worth watching whether the improvement holds into Q1 2024 before reading too much into one quarter.

Segment Performance

BCA now reports four lending lines on a fully separated basis (consolidated, per this quarter's investor presentation): Corporate, Commercial, SME, and Consumer - continuing Q3 2023's first-time split of what had previously been a combined "Commercial & SME" line.

Corporate

Corporate loans stood at Rp368,660 billion (Dec 2023), up 15.0% year-over-year and 8.1% quarter-over-quarter - the fastest QoQ pace of any segment this quarter and an acceleration past Q3's already-strong 5.4% QoQ, extending Corporate's reacceleration into a second straight quarter. Its share of the total book rose to 45.5% from Sep 2023's 44.8%.

Commercial

Commercial loans reached Rp126,822 billion (Dec 2023), up 7.5% year-over-year and 4.3% quarter-over-quarter - accelerating from Q3's 2.7% QoQ. This is the first quarter this segment can be checked against its own year-ago figure on a fully separate (non-combined) basis - see Beyond the Usual for how that comparison holds up.

SME

SME loans reached Rp107,877 billion (Dec 2023), up 16.0% year-over-year and 2.5% quarter-over-quarter - the fastest YoY growth of any segment this quarter, a deceleration on a QoQ basis from Q3's 3.4% but still the second-fastest QoQ pace among the four segments.

Consumer

Consumer loans reached Rp198,846 billion (Dec 2023), up 14.8% year-over-year and 4.0% quarter-over-quarter - continuing the multi-year pattern of Consumer growing among the fastest of the segments. Within Consumer, mortgages grew to Rp121,849 billion (+3.3% QoQ, +11.7% YoY) and vehicle lending to Rp56,906 billion (+4.6% QoQ, +20.8% YoY) - vehicle lending's YoY pace held roughly at Q3's 22.1% YoY reading, still the strongest sustained growth rate this series has recorded for the sub-segment. As with the last three quarters, Consumer's disclosed YoY rate doesn't perfectly reconcile against its own year-ago contemporaneous figure - see Beyond the Usual.

Segment Comparison

Segment	Dec 2023 (Rp bn)	Dec 2022 (Rp bn, own contemporaneous figure)	YoY (own contemporaneous)	Sep 2023 (Rp bn)	QoQ	Share (Dec 2023)
Corporate	368,660	322,176	✅ +14.4%*	341,100	✅ +8.1%	45.5%
Commercial + SME (combined)	234,699	210,162	✅ +11.7%*	226,800	✅ +3.5%	29.0%
Consumer	198,846	171,347	✅ +16.0%*	191,300	✅ +4.0%	24.5%
Total (four segments, consolidated)	802,205	703,685	✅ +14.0%	759,200	✅ +5.7%	99.0%**

*All three YoY rates use each segment's own Dec 2022 contemporaneous figure as reported at the time; BCA's own FY2023 presentation restates Dec 2022 slightly differently for each line (Corporate 15.0%, combined Commercial+SME 11.2%, Consumer 14.8%), a few tenths of a percentage point off in each case - see Beyond the Usual for how these small gaps compare to the much larger ones this series found in 2022. **Remaining ~1.0% of total loans is sharia financing (Rp9,014bn), reported separately from the four core lending lines.

All four lending lines again grew simultaneously both YoY and QoQ, extending H1 2023's "first time since Q3 2021" milestone into a third straight quarter. Corporate's swing to 8.1% QoQ - its fastest pace this series has recorded - is the single biggest driver of this quarter's accelerated total loan growth (5.8% QoQ, noted under Key Operational Metrics above).

Beyond the Usual

This quarter's downloaded documents include the full FY2023 audited annual report - 743 pages, the deepest footnote set this series has had access to for BCA - alongside the standard audited consolidated financial statements, the investor presentation, and the OJK monthly disclosure. The findings below come from mining that annual report's notes: related-party transactions, restructured-loan collectability, off-balance-sheet commitment quality, the operating-segment note, the legal-cases disclosure, and the loan-by-segment MD&A table.

BCA's Q4 PPOP Disclosure Roughly Reconciles With Its Own Filed Statements - Unlike Q2 and Q3

This quarter's investor presentation states FY2023 PPOP at Rp62.6 trillion, split as Q1 Rp15.6tn, Q2 Rp16.1tn, Q3 Rp15.5tn (unchanged from Q3's own presentation), and Q4 Rp15.4tn. Testing this against the filed audited statements: FY2023's filed PPOP (income before tax of Rp60,179,757M plus impairment losses of Rp2,263,049M) comes to Rp62,442,806 million. Subtracting the filed 9M 2023 cumulative PPOP of Rp47,301,739 million (from Q3's post, itself sourced directly from that quarter's filed interim statements) leaves a filed-implied Q4 standalone figure of Rp15,141,067 million - within roughly Rp260 billion, or about 1.7%, of the deck's stated Rp15.4tn. That's a materially smaller gap than Q3's post found for Q2 and Q3 standalone (roughly Rp1.9 trillion, or ~12%, in each direction). This one data point can't fully explain what produced the earlier discrepancy - the deck's Q1-Q3 breakdown is unchanged and BCA has never published a bridge reconciling it to the filed cumulative totals - but it does mean the specific "did PPOP recover in Q3/Q4" contradiction this series flagged last quarter doesn't have an equally clean replay available this quarter to test against.

The Restructured Book's Worst Tier Fell for the First Time in Six Quarters

The audited annual report's restructured-loan footnote shows the combined non-performing tier (Substandard + Doubtful + Loss, parent entity only) at Rp10,703 billion as of 31 December 2023, down from Sep 2023's Rp12,067 billion (per Q3's post) - an 11.3% quarterly decline that ends the five-straight-quarter growth streak this series tracked from Jun 2022 through Sep 2023. On a full-year basis the tier is still up 13.2% from Dec 2022's Rp9,459 billion, so this is a within-year reversal rather than the book returning to its Dec 2022 level - the same "improves in Q4, still ends the year higher than it started" pattern Q4 2022's post found exactly one year earlier. The aggregate restructured book itself also kept shrinking, down 34.8% for the year to Rp40,582 billion (5.2% of total loans, versus 9.0% at Dec 2022) - BCA's own annual report attributes the decline to loans returning to normal collectability and repayments concentrated in property & construction, tourism, and transportation & logistics. Whether the NPL tier's one-quarter improvement holds into 2024, or reverses the way it did after the last time this tier fell (which was followed by four more quarters of growth), is worth tracking specifically.

The Segment-Reconciliation Gap This Series First Found in 2022 Has Shrunk to Near-Immaterial Levels

This year's annual report restates Dec 2022 segment loan balances at Corporate Rp320,459bn, Commercial Rp118,025bn, and SME Rp93,019bn (combined Commercial+SME of Rp211,044bn), and Consumer Rp173,236bn. Compared against what those same segments were contemporaneously reported at in Q4 2022's own post - Corporate Rp322,176bn, combined Commercial & SME Rp210,162bn, Consumer Rp171,347bn - the gaps are Corporate -0.5%, combined Commercial+SME +0.4%, and Consumer +1.1%. The same test run at three straight quarters through 2022 found gaps of roughly Rp4.7-5.0 trillion, or 2.3-3.4%, between Commercial & SME and Consumer specifically - the segment pairing whose restatements never lined up cleanly with the prior year's own disclosure. This year's gaps are an order of magnitude smaller in absolute terms and comfortably within normal rounding/reclassification noise, not concerning on their own at this size. As Q4 2022's post noted, this entire comparison still lives inside unaudited investor-relations material - the audited operating-segment note (see below) has never used these four lines at all.

The Audited Operating-Segment Note Still Doesn't Use the Corporate/Commercial/SME/Consumer Split

Note 41 to the consolidated financial statements breaks the Group's business down only by product (Loans, Treasury, Others) and by five geographic regions (Sumatera, Java, Kalimantan, East Indonesia, overseas) - the same structure first documented in the Q4 2022 post. Java alone accounts for Rp690,431 billion of the Group's Rp758,888 billion in net loans (90.9%) and Rp54,544 billion of Rp60,180 billion in income before tax (90.6%) - a geographic concentration that's been consistent across every year this series has reviewed the note, underscoring how little diversification benefit BCA gets from operating outside Java even as it books national-scale deposit and loan totals.

Off-Balance-Sheet Stage 2 Provisioning Rebounded After Q3's Reversal

The estimated-loss provision against Stage 2 ("significant increase in credit risk") off-balance-sheet commitments and contingencies - the figure Q4 2022's post first flagged jumping roughly 15-fold that year - closed FY2023 at Rp148,170 million, up from Sep 2023's Rp128,611 million (+15.2% QoQ), reversing Q3's 24.3% decline. For the full year the balance is up only 2.7% from Dec 2022's Rp144,230 million - effectively flat on an annual basis after a genuinely volatile year (Rp144.2bn to Rp169.9bn to Rp128.6bn to Rp148.2bn across the four quarters). This remains a small, footnote-only figure, but the swings are large enough in percentage terms each quarter that it's worth continuing to track rather than assuming the Q3 reversal was a settled trend.

The Grand Indonesia Lease's Right-of-Use Asset Continued Amortizing Down

BCA's related-party office lease with PT Grand Indonesia, running to 30 September 2035, showed its right-of-use asset falling further to Rp213,815 million at Dec 2023 from Sep 2023's Rp218,817 million - continuing the ordinary amortization pattern and now Rp14,124 million below Dec 2022's Rp227,939 million for the full year. The related finance lease obligation closed the year at Rp58,065 million, down modestly from Rp58,593 million at Dec 2022.

A Civil Lawsuit Over Rp50 Billion Where Lower Courts Ruled Against BCA Is Still in Cassation

BCA's annual report discloses 374 civil cases in 2023 (up from 346 in 2022), and separately lists cases with claims exceeding Rp50 billion that it considers immaterial to business continuity. One of these - a debtor's lawsuit alleging BCA conducted a collateral auction without proper warning notice and below market value - is listed as having been "ruled not in favor of BCA" at both the district court and high court levels, and remains in the cassation process at the Supreme Court with "potential compensation payments" as the disclosed risk. Every other listed case above the Rp50 billion threshold shows either a ruling in BCA's favor or an outcome still pending at the same stage. BCA's own disclosure frames this as immaterial to overall business continuity, and nothing in the annual report suggests a specific provision has been booked against this case individually - reasonable given the bank's overall provisioning levels, but worth noting as the one contested case in this year's disclosure where the lower courts have so far sided against the bank.

Coverage Table

Metric	Q4 2023	Q3 2023	QoQ	Why it matters
FY cumulative PPOP (filed, consolidated)	Rp62,443bn	Rp47,302bn (9M)	✅ +13.5% YoY	The real, audited cumulative number
Standalone Q4 PPOP (deck vs. filed-derived)	Rp15,400bn vs. ~Rp15,141bn	n/a	Close (~1.7% gap)	First quarter this series' reconciliation test has come back close
NPL Coverage (bank-only)	234.1%	226.9%	✅ +7.2pp	First rise since Q1 2023
Restructured loan NPL tier (bank-only, QoQ)	-11.3%	+10.7%	✅ First decline in six quarters	Ends a five-quarter growth streak
LDR (bank-only)	70.2%	67.4%	⚠️ +2.8pp	Largest single-quarter move this series has recorded
Corporate loans (consolidated, QoQ)	+8.1%	+5.4%	✅ Accelerated further	Fastest-growing segment for a second straight quarter

Target Valuation Range

P/E of ~23.8x and P/B of ~4.78x - BCA looks fairly valued to slightly expensive here - shares hit a new series-period high on genuinely improving credit-quality trends, but both trailing P/E and P/B expanded faster than the underlying earnings and book-value growth that's supposed to justify them.

BCA's shares closed at Rp9,400 on December 29, 2023 (the last trading day of the year), up 6.5% from Sep 2023's Rp8,825 close and 10.0% year-over-year from Dec 2022's Rp8,550 - a new closing high for the roughly two-year window this series has tracked, surpassing November 2022's previous Rp9,300 high. Over the trailing two years, shares are up 28.8% from Dec 2021's Rp7,300 close, a window whose peak-to-trough swing (June 2022's Rp7,250 low to this quarter's own Rp9,400 high) comes to roughly 29.7% - just under the threshold this series has used to justify a dedicated section, but the fact that this quarter set a fresh two-year high on the back of a genuine credit-quality turn (NPL Coverage rising, the restructured NPL tier falling) makes the move worth explaining rather than folding quietly into the valuation section. BCA's last stock split (1:5) took effect 13 October 2021, before this two-year window begins, so no further split adjustment applies to these prices.

• P/E^»: ~23.80x, using FY2023's full-year EPS of Rp395 against the Rp9,400 close - up from Sep 2023's ~22.6x (itself using trailing-four-quarter EPS), as the 6.5% QoQ price gain outpaced FY2023's EPS growth.
• P/B^»: ~4.78x, using book value per share of Rp1,966 (total equity attributable to owners, Rp242,356,256 million, divided by 123,275,050,000 shares) - up from Sep 2023's ~4.62x, as the share price rose faster (6.5% QoQ) than book value per share grew (2.9% QoQ).

Market cap → book value	FY2023
Share price (period-end)	Rp9,400
Shares outstanding	123,275,050,000
Market capitalization	Rp1,158,785B (~$75.25B)
Book value (equity attributable to owners)	Rp242,356B (~$15.74B)
P/B»	~4.78x

P/E and P/B	Q3 2023 (TTM)	FY2023 (actual)	Change
EPS	Rp391.0	Rp395	✅ up
P/E»	~22.6x	~23.8x	⚠️ up
Book value per share	Rp1,912	Rp1,966	✅ up
P/B»	~4.62x	~4.78x	⚠️ up

A full DCF still isn't attempted here, for the same reason as every prior post in this series - this remains a franchise whose durable growth rate is easier to describe qualitatively (CASA-funded, double-digit loan growth across every segment) than to pin to a single confident multi-year cash-flow forecast, and this quarter's own Q4 PPOP reconciliation, while cleaner than Q3's, still isn't a fully independent third data point. The peer-multiple comparison this section would normally lean on isn't available yet either - no other IDX bank in this backlog has a post covering the same December 2023 quarter to compare against. At ~23.8x trailing earnings and ~4.8x book for a bank growing loans 13.9% a year with a CASA-funded balance sheet, BCA isn't obviously mispriced in either direction - the higher multiples this quarter reflect a real, if incremental, improvement in credit-quality trends rather than a re-rating unsupported by the underlying numbers.

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