BBCA Is the Loan-to-Deposit Squeeze Actually Easing, or Just Taking a Seasonal Breather?

A Seasonal Breather in the Loan-to-Deposit Squeeze

FY2024's post closed the year with bank-only loan-to-deposit ratio^» (LDR) up 8.2 percentage points in a single year to 78.4%, calling it "the real structural story" of 2024 - consolidated loans growing 13.8% against deposits growing just 2.9%. Q1 2025 broke that pattern, at least for one quarter: consolidated Third Party Funds grew 5.3% quarter-over-quarter to Rp1,193.4 trillion, comfortably outpacing consolidated loan growth of 2.1% QoQ to Rp941.2 trillion, and bank-only LDR eased back to 76.1%, down 2.3 percentage points from Dec 2024's 78.4%.

This isn't necessarily the structural reversal a reader might hope for. BCA's own deposit base has historically shown a seasonal Q1 lift as year-end bonuses, tax-season corporate balances, and pre-Ramadan liquidity flow into accounts, and the bank's Q1 2024 comparative shows the same directional pattern (deposits also grew faster than loans that quarter, before the trend reversed over the rest of the year). Loans still grew a healthy 12.6% year-over-year to Rp941.2 trillion - the fourth straight quarter of double-digit consolidated loan growth - so this is a pause in the ratio's climb, not a retreat from BCA's underlying lending pace. CASA^» to Total Funding actually improved again, to 82.9% from Dec 2024's 82.4%, meaning the deposit inflow that eased LDR came disproportionately from BCA's cheapest funding source rather than more expensive time deposits - a genuinely favorable mix even if the LDR relief itself doesn't yet look durable.

The Prescription

BCA's Wealth Management franchise remains the standout growth lever this series keeps flagging - Total Assets Under Management reached Rp279 trillion (Mar 2025), up roughly a third year-over-year, with government bonds still the dominant 94% share of that book - and the bank should keep pushing this specifically, since it's fee income that doesn't touch the loan-to-deposit constraint at the center of the last several posts. What it should stop doing is presenting bank-only ROA, ROE, and cost-to-income ratios for the quarter without giving the underlying, dividend-adjusted figure equal visual weight - the investor presentation buries the fact that this quarter's 4.3% ROA and 26.2% ROE (bank-only) both fall to a much more modest 3.7% and 22.7% once a one-off Rp2.16 trillion dividend BCA received from a subsidiary is excluded, in a footnote asterisk rather than the headline row itself (see Beyond the Usual). A bank whose whole pitch rests on disclosure quality should show the comparable figure next to the headline one, not below it in smaller type.

Key Financial Metrics

Q1 2025 vs. Q1 2024 (consolidated, unaudited three-month figures, ended 31 March)

FX: IDR 16,560.0 = USD 1 (31 March 2025, per BCA's own filed financial statements' Reuters middle-rate disclosure) - a 4.4% Rupiah depreciation from Mar 2024's Rp15,855.0, and a 2.9% depreciation from Dec 2024's Rp16,095.0.

Metric	Q1 2025 (IDR)	Q1 2025 (USD)	Q1 2024 (IDR)	YoY
Net Interest Income (+ sharia)	Rp21,118,560M	~$1,275.5M	Rp19,766,457M	✅ +6.8%
Non-interest income (gross)	Rp7,005,767M	~$423.1M	Rp6,451,724M	✅ +8.6%
Net Revenue (Operating Income, NII + non-interest)	Rp28,124,327M	~$1,698.8M	Rp26,218,181M	✅ +7.3%
Operating Income (PPOP, consolidated)	Rp18,486,694M	~$1,116.3M	Rp16,801,489M	✅ +10.0%
Net Income (attributable to owners)	Rp14,146,131M	~$854.3M	Rp12,879,486M	✅ +9.8%
EPS (quarterly, consolidated)	Rp115	~$0.007	Rp104	✅ +10.6%

A bank has no Adjusted EBITDA or free cash flow, per this series' convention for deposit-taking institutions.

Net income's 9.8% YoY growth again outran PPOP's own 10.0% only marginally, a tighter relationship than several recent quarters - impairment losses on assets rose 16.3% YoY (Rp886,460M to Rp1,031,032M), broadly tracking the quarter's loan growth rather than signaling fresh credit stress on its own. Standalone quarterly net profit rose to Rp14,146,131 million, up 2.8% quarter-over-quarter from Q4 2024's Rp13,762,442 million - a modest sequential gain after Q4's own step-down from Q3's Rp14,197,679 million, consistent with BCA's recent pattern of Q4 being the softer sequential quarter and Q1 recovering.

Balance sheet metric	Mar 2025 (IDR)	Mar 2025 (USD)	Mar 2024 (IDR)	YoY
Total Assets	Rp1,533,763,445M	~$92.62B	Rp1,444,007,645M	✅ +6.2%
Third Party Funds (deposits, incl. sharia)*	~Rp1,193,400,000M	~$72.07B	~Rp1,120,600,000M	✅ +6.5%
CASA» (demand + savings deposits)*	~Rp979,200,000M	~$59.13B	~Rp904,500,000M	✅ +8.3%
Total Loans (outstanding, incl. sharia)*	~Rp941,200,000M	~$56.84B	~Rp835,700,000M	✅ +12.6%
Total Equity (attributable to owners)	Rp246,325,028M	~$14.87B	Rp227,161,854M	✅ +8.4%

*Third Party Funds, CASA, and Total Loans per BCA's own investor presentation (consolidated, including sharia financing), the same sourcing convention used since Sep 2019's post.

Total equity attributable to owners fell 6.2% quarter-over-quarter from Dec 2024's Rp262,640,621M, the same annual dividend-accrual mechanism Q1 2024's post first flagged in this series - the Bank's shareholders approved a Rp30,818,763 million cash dividend for the 2024 fiscal year, payable 11 April 2025, which gets provisioned out of retained earnings ahead of actual payment. Bank-only CAR^» shows the identical pattern, falling from Dec 2024's 29.4% to 26.6% this quarter - now a recurring, entirely mechanical Q1 move rather than anything to flag fresh each year. Operating cash flow was Rp35,183,351M (~$2,125.0M), up 17.6% from Q1 2024's Rp29,921,610M, driven by a much larger deposit inflow (Rp57,251,184M net, versus Rp17,229,491M a year earlier) that more than offset heavier loan disbursement. Capital expenditure on fixed assets (Rp311,014M) and right-of-use assets (Rp122,457M) remained a small fraction of operating cash flow, as is typical for a bank whose cash flow is dominated by loan and deposit movements rather than capex. Cash and cash equivalents closed the quarter at Rp116,032,328M (~$7,007.4M), down 17.8% YoY but up 35.7% from Dec 2024's Rp85,482,530M as the quarter's deposit inflow built up liquid balances ahead of the April dividend payout.

Key Operational Metrics

Bank-only unless noted, from BCA's own investor presentation and financial-ratio disclosures:

• CASA to Total Funding (bank-only): 82.9% (Mar 2025) vs Dec 2024's 82.4% ✅ +0.5pp, and up 1.4pp YoY (81.5% at Mar 2024).
• LDR^»: 76.1% (Mar 2025) vs Dec 2024's 78.4% ✅ -2.3pp - see above; still up 4.9pp YoY from Mar 2024's 71.2%.
• NIM^»: 5.8% (Mar 2025) vs 5.6% (Mar 2024) ✅ +0.2pp, but down 0.2pp QoQ from Dec 2024's 6.0%.
• ROA^»: 4.3% (Mar 2025) vs 3.6% (Mar 2024) ✅ +0.7pp - but 3.7% excluding the one-off subsidiary dividend, see Beyond the Usual.
• ROE^»: 26.2% (Mar 2025) vs 22.7% (Mar 2024) ✅ +3.5pp - 22.7% excluding the same one-off dividend, essentially flat YoY on that adjusted basis.
• CAR^» (bank-only): 26.6% (Mar 2025) vs Dec 2024's 29.4% ⚠️ -2.8pp - the recurring Q1 dividend-accrual pattern discussed above, not a capital-quality concern.
• NPL ratio - gross (bank-only, point-in-time): 2.0% (31 Mar 2025) vs Dec 2024's 1.8% ⚠️ +0.2pp.
• NPL Coverage (Provision/NPL, bank-only): 180.5% (Mar 2025) vs Dec 2024's 208.5% ⚠️ -28.0pp QoQ - see Beyond the Usual.
• Cost-to-Income Ratio^»: 28.5% (Mar 2025) vs 32.4% (Mar 2024) ✅ -3.9pp - but 30.9% excluding the one-off subsidiary dividend, a smaller improvement than the headline suggests.
• Cost of credit (bank-only): 0.5% (Mar 2025) vs 0.4% (Mar 2024) - up 0.1pp, and up 0.6pp QoQ from Q4's net recovery of -0.1%.
• Consumer's share of consolidated NPL: 22.5% (Mar 2025) vs Dec 2024's 22.9% ✅ -0.4pp - the first quarterly decline after five straight quarters of increases this series tracked from 19.7% (Dec 2023) through 22.9% (Dec 2024); still up from 21.3% a year ago.
• Corporate's share of consolidated NPL: 40.0% (Mar 2025) vs Dec 2024's 40.2% - essentially flat, holding the reversal Q4 2024 first showed rather than resuming the four-quarter decline that preceded it.
• Loan at Risk^» (bank-only, includes on & off-balance-sheet): 6.0% (Mar 2025) vs Mar 2024's 6.6% ✅ -0.6pp YoY, but up 0.7pp QoQ from Dec 2024's 5.3%.
• Wealth Management AUM: Rp279 trillion (Mar 2025) vs Rp268 trillion (Dec 2024) ✅ roughly +33% YoY - government bonds remain 94% of the total, essentially unchanged in composition from FY2024.

Q1 is typically a seasonally lighter quarter for BCA's consumer lending new bookings (mortgages and auto loans both showed slower new-booking volume this quarter than Q4, per the investor presentation, attributed to timing around this year's earlier Eid al-Fitr holiday cycle) - worth keeping in mind when reading segment growth rates below rather than treating a softer sequential pace as a genuine slowdown.

Segment Performance

BCA continues reporting four lending lines on a fully separated basis (consolidated, per this quarter's investor presentation): Corporate, Commercial, SME, and Consumer.

Corporate

Corporate loans reached Rp443.4 trillion (Mar 2025), up 13.9% year-over-year and 3.3% quarter-over-quarter - again the fastest-growing segment on both a YoY and QoQ basis, continuing Q4 2024's reacceleration. Investment loans (52% of the segment) grew faster than working capital loans (+19% YoY vs +9% YoY), with utilization on investment facilities holding around 81-82% - BCA's own presentation frames this as continued sound corporate demand rather than a temporary spike.

Commercial

Commercial loans reached Rp137.4 trillion (Mar 2025), up 9.9% year-over-year and 1.6% quarter-over-quarter - the slowest full pace of the four segments on both measures, similar to the pattern FY2024's post described.

SME

SME loans reached Rp124.5 trillion (Mar 2025), up 12.9% year-over-year and 0.6% quarter-over-quarter, continuing to outpace industry SME lending (ex-micro) by roughly 8 percentage points YoY per BCA's own industry comparison.

Consumer

Consumer loans reached Rp225.7 trillion (Mar 2025), up 11.3% year-over-year and 0.9% quarter-over-quarter - the softest QoQ pace of the four segments this quarter, consistent with the seasonally lighter Q1 new-booking volume noted above. Within Consumer, mortgages grew to Rp135.3 trillion (+10.5% YoY, -0.1% QoQ) and vehicle lending to Rp67.1 trillion (+12.3% YoY, +2.7% QoQ) - vehicle lending again the fastest-growing Consumer sub-segment, extending the multi-year pattern this series has tracked. Personal loans grew to Rp23.3 trillion (+13.9% YoY), and sharia financing - still the smallest reported line at Rp11.0 trillion - again grew the fastest of any segment or sub-segment at +18.0% YoY.

Segment Comparison

Segment	Mar 2025 (Rp tn)	Mar 2024 (Rp tn)	YoY	Dec 2024 (Rp tn)	QoQ	Share (Mar 2025)
Corporate	443.4	389.4	✅ +13.9%	429.5	✅ +3.3%	47.6%
Commercial	137.4	125.0	✅ +9.9%	135.3	✅ +1.6%	14.8%
SME	124.5	110.3	✅ +12.9%	123.7	✅ +0.6%	13.4%
Consumer	225.7	202.7	✅ +11.3%	223.8	✅ +0.9%	24.2%
Total (four segments, consolidated)	931.0	827.4	✅ +12.5%	912.3	✅ +2.1%	100.0%

All four segments grew both year-over-year and quarter-over-quarter simultaneously for a sixth straight quarter, extending the streak FY2024's post traced back to Q4 2023. Corporate's 3.3% QoQ pace again led the group, though at a slower clip than Q4 2024's own 7.8% QoQ - the reacceleration that quarter partly moderated rather than compounding further.

Beyond the Usual

This quarter's downloaded document is the unaudited interim financial statements, which carry footnote detail on restructured loans, related-party transactions, post-employment benefits, and the tax reconciliation between consolidated and bank-only income - narrower in scope than the annual report's legal-cases disclosure, but still enough to surface real findings.

A One-Off Subsidiary Dividend Flattered This Quarter's Bank-Only Ratios

BCA's own investor presentation discloses, in a footnote to its Key Ratios table, that the Bank received a Rp2.2 trillion dividend from a subsidiary during Q1 2025 - confirmed in the filed financial statements' tax reconciliation note, which shows a Rp2,162,748 million "Dividends from Subsidiaries" adjustment between consolidated and bank-only pre-tax income. Last year, the equivalent subsidiary dividend was paid in Q4 rather than Q1. The presentation's own footnote states that, excluding this dividend, bank-only cost-to-income would be 30.9% rather than the headline 28.5%, and bank-only ROA and ROE would be 3.7% and 22.7% rather than 4.3% and 26.2%. None of this affects the consolidated figures in Key Financial Metrics above, which already eliminate intercompany dividends - but a reader relying only on the bank-only ratio table in the deck, without noticing the small-print asterisk, would come away thinking this quarter's operating efficiency and returns improved by considerably more than they actually did on a comparable basis. This is a timing quirk in when a subsidiary pays its dividend, not new evidence of a stronger underlying quarter.

The Restructured Loan Book Jumped Sharply After a Year of Shrinking

Bank-only restructured loans reversed course this quarter, rising to Rp33,909,807 million as of 31 March 2025, up 17.8% quarter-over-quarter from Dec 2024's Rp28,786,602 million - breaking a shrinkage trend this series had tracked since the OJK's Covid-era restructuring relaxation formally ended 31 March 2024, which took the book from Rp40,581,823 million at Dec 2023 down through four consecutive quarterly declines. The book's worst tier (Sub-standard + Doubtful + Loss, classified as restructured-and-NPL) grew too, to Rp10,777,743 million from Dec 2024's Rp10,028,447 million (+7.5% QoQ), reversing the two straight quarters of improvement FY2024's post had found. Within the book, the "Current" tier grew to Rp16,786,186 million from Rp11,897,353 million - the increase is concentrated in loans still performing normally rather than in the worst tier alone, which is the less concerning way for a restructured book to grow back, but a single-quarter reversal after a year of consistent shrinkage is still a break in the trend worth tracking into Q2 2025 to see whether it's a one-off or the start of a new direction.

NPL Coverage Fell Sharply for a Second Straight First Quarter

Bank-only NPL Coverage (Provision/NPL) fell to 180.5% as of 31 March 2025, down 28.0 percentage points from Dec 2024's 208.5% - a similarly sized single-quarter drop to Q2 2024's 30.1pp decline, which also followed a year-end reading. The bank-only NPL ratio itself also worsened slightly, from 1.8% to 2.0%, so unlike Dec 2024 (where a better NPL ratio came with thinner coverage), this quarter's coverage decline coincides with a genuine, if modest, increase in the underlying non-performing balance. Net income still grew a healthy 9.8% YoY and NPL Coverage remains well above 100% (meaning provisions still exceed the non-performing balance outright), so this isn't a solvency concern at BCA's scale - but it's the second Q1 in a row where coverage has dropped by a large margin right after a stronger year-end reading, suggesting BCA's provisioning may lean more conservative at year-end than it does through the following Q1.

Wealth Management's AUM Growth Is Almost Entirely a Government Bond Story

Total Assets Under Management reached Rp279 trillion as of March 2025, up roughly a third year-over-year - the fastest-growing metric in this quarter's deck, continuing the trend FY2024's post flagged. But the composition hasn't diversified alongside the growth: government bonds still make up 94% of total AUM, the same share as at FY2024, with the presentation itself naming government bonds as "the main contributor to AUM" growth given the attractive yield environment. This is less a story of BCA broadening its wealth-management product mix than of retail and affluent customers using BCA's platform to access a single asset class (government bonds) that happens to be paying well right now - a detail a reader comparing BCA's AUM growth against a diversified wealth manager elsewhere should keep in mind.

The Related-Party Pension Funding Share Held Steady Near FY2024's Level

BCA's related-party pension contribution to Dana Pensiun BCA - the foundation this series has tracked since Q3 2024's post found it dip sharply mid-year before fully reversing by year-end - came in at 86.71% of total pension plan contributions for Q1 2025 (Rp131,078 million of Rp151,160 million total), essentially flat against Q1 2024's 86.31% and consistent with FY2024's own 86.09% close. Whatever caused last year's interim dip appears to have been a one-off timing effect rather than a recurring pattern, since this year's Q1 reading opened at the same level FY2024 finished at rather than repeating the mid-year swing.

Coverage Table

Metric	Q1 2025	Q1 2024	YoY	Why it matters
Consolidated Loans (incl. sharia)	~Rp941.2tn	~Rp835.7tn	✅ +12.6%	Fourth straight quarter of double-digit growth
Third Party Funds	~Rp1,193.4tn	~Rp1,120.6tn	✅ +6.5%	Outgrew loans this quarter, easing LDR - see opening section
LDR (bank-only)	76.1%	71.2%	⚠️ +4.9pp YoY	Down 2.3pp QoQ from FY2024's 78.4% peak
Bank-only ROA/ROE ex. subsidiary dividend	3.7% / 22.7%	n/a	-	Comparable basis to headline 4.3% / 26.2% - see Beyond the Usual
Restructured book's worst tier (bank-only)	Rp10.8tn	n/a	⚠️ +7.5% QoQ	First increase after a year of decline
NPL Coverage (bank-only)	180.5%	220.3%	⚠️ -39.8pp	Sharp seasonal-looking Q1 drop, second year running
Total Equity (attributable to owners)	Rp246.3tn	Rp227.2tn	✅ +8.4%	Q1 dividend-accrual dip is now a recognized recurring pattern

Target Valuation Range

P/E of ~18.7x and P/B of ~4.25x - BCA looks moderately cheaper than a quarter ago - both trailing P/E and P/B compressed as the share price fell faster than trailing earnings or book value grew, but the move tracks a broad pullback in Indonesian bank valuations this quarter rather than anything specific to BCA's own results.

BCA's shares closed at Rp8,500 on 27 March 2025 (the last trading day before the quarter-end holiday period), down 12.1% from Dec 2024's Rp9,675 close and down 2.9% year-over-year from Mar 2024's Rp10,075. Over the trailing two years, shares ranged from Feb 2025's Rp8,425 low to Aug/Sep 2024's Rp10,325 high - a peak-to-trough swing of roughly 18.4%, below the threshold this series uses to justify a dedicated price section, so the move is folded into valuation here rather than given its own heading. BCA's last stock split (1:5) took effect 13 October 2021, well before this two-year window begins, so no further split adjustment applies to these prices.

• P/E^»: ~18.7x, using the trailing four quarters' net profit attributable to owners (Rp13,996.7bn + Rp14,197.7bn + Rp13,762.4bn + Rp14,146.1bn = Rp56,103.0bn, Q2 2024 through Q1 2025) against the Rp8,500 close and 123,275,050,000 shares outstanding - a sharp compression from Dec 2024's ~21.7x, as the 12.1% QoQ price decline outpaced trailing-four-quarter earnings growth.
• P/B^»: ~4.25x, using book value per share of Rp1,998 (total equity attributable to owners, Rp246,325,028 million, divided by 123,275,050,000 shares) - down from Dec 2024's ~4.54x, as the falling share price more than offset the modest QoQ dip in book value per share from the dividend accrual.

Market cap → book value	Q1 2025
Share price (period-end)	Rp8,500
Shares outstanding	123,275,050,000
Market capitalization	Rp1,047,838B (~$63.26B)
Book value (equity attributable to owners)	Rp246,325B (~$14.87B)
P/B»	~4.25x

P/E and P/B (TTM basis)	FY2024 (actual)	Q1 2025 (TTM)	Change
EPS	Rp444.8	Rp455.1	✅ up
P/E»	~21.7x	~18.7x	✅ down
Book value per share	Rp2,131	Rp1,998	⚠️ down
P/B»	~4.54x	~4.25x	✅ down

A full DCF still isn't attempted here, for the same reason as every prior post in this series - BCA's durable growth rate is easier to describe qualitatively (CASA-funded, broad-based double-digit loan growth across four simultaneously-growing segments) than to pin to a single confident multi-year cash-flow forecast. The peer-multiple comparison this section would normally lean on also isn't available yet, since no other IDX bank in this backlog has a post covering the same March 2025 quarter. At ~18.7x trailing earnings and ~4.25x book for a bank still growing loans in the low-to-mid teens annually with deposits genuinely outgrowing loans this quarter, BCA looks cheaper on both multiples than at any point since Q1 2023 - though a reader should weigh that against the restructured-loan reversal and the dividend-inflated ratios flagged in Beyond the Usual before treating the compression as a straightforward bargain.

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