BBCA Did Q1's Provisioning Spike Turn Out to Be Noise After All?

The Quarter That Undid Q1's Warnings

The Q1 2022 post closed on two live threads: standalone net profit had fallen for a second straight quarter as provisioning jumped 68.2% QoQ, and the restructured loan book's worst collectability tier had grown for four consecutive quarters, three of them by double digits. The post's own conclusion was blunt - "if this extends into Q2 2022, the YoY framing alone won't be enough evidence of health."

It didn't extend. Standalone net profit rose 23.8% quarter-over-quarter to Rp9,985 billion from Q1's Rp8,064 billion, reversing two straight quarters of decline in one move. Bank-only cost of credit fell from Q1's 1.9% to 0.6% - not just a partial retracement but a drop below anything this series has recorded since well before the Q1 spike. Gross NPL (bank-only, point-in-time) improved to 2.2% at 30 June 2022 from 2.39% a year earlier, the first year-over-year improvement since Q1's post flagged the first YoY deterioration this series had tracked. All three lending segments - Corporate, Commercial & SME, and Consumer - grew both year-over-year and quarter-over-quarter simultaneously again, undoing the stall Q1 documented where Commercial & SME actually shrank.

The one thread that didn't unwind: the Covid-19 restructured loan book's own NPL tier grew for a fourth consecutive quarter, to Rp10.5 trillion from Q1's Rp10.3 trillion. What changed is the pace - Q1's 16.1% quarter-over-quarter growth in that tier slowed to just 2.1% this quarter. A four-quarter trend that decelerates sharply is a different story than one that keeps accelerating, and this quarter is the first real evidence the deceleration case has legs - but it's still growth, not the reversal that would let the streak end on a clean note. See Beyond the Usual for the full breakdown.

The Prescription

BCA should start disclosing the restructured book's collectability tiers at the same cadence and prominence it uses for the headline Loan at Risk (LAR^») figure - not just in the year-over-year, Dec-to-Jun table this quarter's presentation happened to include, but every quarter, the way it already does for the consolidated NPL^» ratio. This quarter is the first time in four quarters where that tier's own growth rate genuinely decelerated rather than accelerated, and a reader following only the LAR headline (which improved to 12.3% from 13.8%) would have no way to know that improvement was still coexisting with the NPL tier itself growing, just more slowly. The bank already has the numbers - it should stop making a reader wait for a quarter where the trend happens to look bad enough to warrant restating them in a footnote-sized table.

What BCA should actively stop doing: treating cost of credit as if quarter-to-quarter swings this large (1.9% to 0.6%, a bigger single-quarter move in either direction than any quarter this series has recorded) don't deserve their own explanation. A metric that can spike 73% in one quarter and then fall 68% the next isn't behaving like a stable input to earnings quality - it's behaving like a number sensitive to specific write-back or recovery decisions BCA isn't detailing. Two consecutive quarters of unexplained volatility in the same direction was worth flagging last quarter; two consecutive quarters where the volatility flips sign entirely is worth an explanation, not just a number in a ratio table.

Key Financial Metrics

H1 2022 vs. H1 2021 (P&L, consolidated unaudited interim figures), and 30 June 2022 vs. 31 December 2021 (balance sheet, consolidated)

FX: IDR 14,897.5 = USD 1 (June 30, 2022, per BCA's own filed financial statements' Reuters middle-rate disclosure) - a 3.7% Rupiah depreciation from Q1 2022's Rp14,369.0.

This is BCA's unaudited interim OJK-format filing, not the full audited annual report - it carries the balance sheet, P&L, cash flow statement, commitments/contingencies, and the collectability-tier asset-quality schedule, but not the deeper related-party (Note 49-style) and lease/purchase-commitment footnotes that only accompany a full annual filing, the same limitation Q1's post noted. See Beyond the Usual for what this quarter's schedule and filing turned up regardless.

Metric	H1 2022 (IDR)	H1 2022 (USD)	H1 2021 (IDR)	YoY
Net Interest Income	Rp29,773,310M	~$1,998.7M	Rp28,277,787M	✅ +5.3%
Non-interest income (gross)	Rp11,123,000M	~$746.8M	Rp10,210,000M	✅ +8.9%
Net Revenue (Operating Income, NII + non-interest)	Rp40,896,000M	~$2,745.6M	Rp38,488,000M	✅ +6.3%
Operating Income (PPOP», consolidated)	Rp25,843,000M	~$1,735.1M	Rp24,264,000M	✅ +6.5%
Net Income (attributable to owners)	Rp18,049,471M	~$1,211.7M	Rp14,455,865M	✅ +24.9%
EPS (cumulative, consolidated)	Rp146	~$0.0098	Rp117*	✅ +24.8%

*Rp117 is H1 2021's originally-reported EPS restated for the company's 1:5 stock split (effective 13 October 2021), per the filing's own footnote - both periods' EPS above are already on the same, post-split basis.

Net profit grew 24.9% YoY on the cumulative H1 view, faster than FY2021's own pace and the strongest YoY growth this series has recorded across 2021-22. But the more useful read this quarter is sequential: standalone Q2 net profit (H1's Rp18,049,471M minus Q1's already-reported Rp8,064,433M) reached Rp9,985,038M, up 23.8% QoQ from Q1's Rp8,064,433M - reversing two straight quarters of sequential decline. Provisioning expense (consolidated, per the presentation) fell to Rp909bn in Q2 from Q1's Rp2,818bn, a 67.7% QoQ drop that undoes essentially all of Q1's own 68.2% QoQ jump. Cost of credit (bank-only) fell to 0.6% from Q1's 1.9%, back below Q1 2021's own 2.2% cumulative-period reading and the lowest single-quarter figure this series has recorded.

Balance sheet metric	Jun 2022 (IDR)	Jun 2022 (USD)	Dec 2021 (IDR)	QoQ/YtD
Total Assets	Rp1,264,467,919M	~$84.88B	Rp1,228,344,680M	✅ +2.9% YtD
Third Party Funds (deposits)*	Rp1,011,043,000M	~$67.87B	Rp975,949,000M	✅ +1.3% QoQ
CASA»*	Rp817,812,000M	~$54.89B	Rp767,012,000M	✅ +2.5% QoQ
Total Loans (outstanding)*	Rp675,362,000M	~$45.33B	Rp636,987,000M	✅ +6.0% QoQ
Total Equity (consolidated)	Rp202,986,810M	~$13.63B	Rp202,712,762M	✅ +4.3% QoQ

*Third Party Funds, CASA, and Total Loans (outstanding, consolidated including sharia financing) per BCA's own investor presentation, the same sourcing convention used since Sep 2019's post. Total Assets in USD actually reads lower than Q1's ~$87.65B despite IDR growth, purely because the Rupiah depreciated 3.7% against the dollar over the quarter (see FX line above) - a currency-translation effect, not a shrinking balance sheet.

Total loans grew 6.0% QoQ, the sharpest quarterly loan growth this series has recorded, reversing Q1's essentially-flat +0.02% QoQ entirely - see Segment Comparison below. Equity also recovered, up 4.3% QoQ after Q1's dividend-driven 4.0% drop. Operating cash flow for the six months ended 30 June 2022 was Rp74,094,395M (~$4,973.6M), positive after Q1's standalone -Rp19,257,380M - implying a standalone Q2 operating cash flow of roughly +Rp93,351,775M (~$6,266.4M), a swing this series hasn't seen the size of before, driven by deposit growth (Rp31,659,860M net cash inflow from customer deposits, per the filing's own cash-flow breakdown) alongside a large net reduction in reverse-repo placements (Rp49,991,420M released) rather than the large reverse-repo build that drove Q1's own negative reading. Cash and cash equivalents closed the quarter at Rp227,093,708M (~$15.25B), up 44.2% from Q1's Rp157,504,951M and 28.1% above Dec 2021's Rp177,268,685M.

Key Operational Metrics

Bank-only (individual) unless noted, from BCA's own filed financial-ratio disclosures and investor presentation:

• CASA ratio: 80.9% (Jun 2022, consolidated, per BCA's own investor presentation) vs Mar 2022's 80.0% ✅ - another fresh high.
• LDR^»: 63.5% (Jun 2022, per the presentation) vs 60.5% (Mar 2022) ⚠️ - loan growth (6.0% QoQ) finally outpacing deposit growth (1.3% QoQ), the first meaningful LDR increase this series has tracked in some quarters, though still well below pre-pandemic levels.
• NIM^»: 5.0% (Jun 2022, quarterly, per the presentation) vs 4.9% (Mar 2022, quarterly) ✅ - the first sequential NIM increase this series' 2021-22 quarters have recorded, after several straight quarters of compression or flatness.
• ROA^»: 3.9% (Jun 2022, quarterly, per the presentation) vs 3.1% (Mar 2022, quarterly) ✅ - a sharp jump.
• ROE^»: 22.4% (Jun 2022, quarterly) vs 16.8% (Mar 2022, quarterly) ✅ - the highest quarterly reading this series has recorded.
• CAR^» (bank-only): 24.7% (Jun 2022, quarterly, per the presentation) vs 23.9% (Mar 2022) ✅ - recovered, comfortably above the 9.99% individual KPMM requirement.
• NPL ratio - gross (bank-only, point-in-time): 2.2% (30 Jun 2022, per BCA's filed ratio disclosure) vs 2.39% (30 Jun 2021) ✅ - the first YoY improvement this series has tracked, after Q1's post flagged the first YoY deterioration; also better than Q1's own 2.30% snapshot. Net NPL: 0.69% vs 0.90% a year earlier, similarly improved.
• Cost of credit (bank-only): 0.6% (Q2 2022, per the presentation) vs 1.9% (Q1 2022) ✅ - see The Prescription above for why a swing this size in either direction deserves more explanation than a single ratio line gives it.
• Cost-to-Income Ratio^»: 32.9% (Jun 2022, quarterly, per the presentation) vs 35.8% (Mar 2022) ✅ - improved further, now below every quarter in this series' 2021-22 window.
• BOPO^»: 52.38% (Jun 2022, filed ratio, six-month cumulative) vs 60.28% (Jun 2021) ✅ - a large YoY improvement, continuing the direction Q1's post recorded.
• Loan-loss coverage (Provision/NPL, bank-only): 246.4% (Jun 2022, per the presentation) vs Mar 2022's 244.8% ✅ - a fourth straight quarter of sequential rebuild since Q3 2021's trough.
• Loan at Risk^» (ex-Covid, share of total loans): 12.3% (Jun 2022, per the presentation) vs Mar 2022's 13.8%, a further improvement.
• LAR Coverage with Restructured Covid & off-B/S: 47.9% (Jun 2022) vs Mar 2022's 44.7%, continuing the QoQ improvement.

The coverage-ratio gap this series has tracked since 2021 - Provision/NPL coverage minus LAR-including-Covid coverage - narrowed to 198.5 percentage points (246.4% minus 47.9%), down from Mar 2022's 200.1pp, extending the general closing trend. That narrowing is real, but as with every quarter this series has tracked it, it sits alongside - not instead of - the restructured book's own NPL tier still growing in absolute terms (see Beyond the Usual).

Segment Performance

BCA reports three lending segments (consolidated, per this quarter's investor presentation): Corporate, Commercial & SME, and Consumer. Q1's post documented the first break in the all-three-growing streak, with Commercial & SME contracting QoQ and Corporate stalling. That break didn't extend.

Corporate

Corporate loans reached Rp310,232 billion (Jun 2022), up 19.1% year-over-year and 8.1% quarter-over-quarter - a sharp acceleration from Q1's essentially flat +0.1% QoQ, the fastest QoQ pace this segment has posted in this series' 2021-22 quarters.

Commercial & SME

Commercial & SME loans reached Rp197,549 billion (Jun 2022), up 10.9% year-over-year (per BCA's own presentation) and 4.6% quarter-over-quarter - reversing Q1's 1.1% QoQ contraction entirely, the segment that had been the sole one to shrink now growing faster than Consumer.

Consumer

Consumer loans reached Rp160,508 billion (Jun 2022), up 7.6% year-over-year (per BCA's own presentation - see Beyond the Usual for a discrepancy this figure has against the segment's own year-ago disclosure) and 3.7% quarter-over-quarter - the slowest QoQ pace of the three segments this quarter, for the first time since Q3 2021. Within Consumer, mortgages grew to Rp101,611 billion (+3.5% QoQ, +8.5% YoY) and vehicle lending to Rp43,155 billion (+3.8% QoQ, +4.8% YoY) - both continuing the recovery Q1's post first confirmed after the PPnBM auto-tax stimulus turned YoY-positive.

Segment Comparison

Segment	Jun 2022 (Rp bn)	Jun 2021 (Rp bn)	Implied YoY	BCA's own stated YoY*	Dec 2021 (Rp bn)	QoQ	Share (Jun 2022)
Corporate	310,232	260,446	+19.1%	✅ +19.1%	286,490	✅ +8.1%	45.9%
Commercial & SME	197,549	182,787	+8.1%	⚠️ +10.9%	190,882	✅ +4.6%	29.2%
Consumer	160,508	144,440	+11.1%	⚠️ +7.6%	153,367	✅ +3.7%	23.8%
Total (three segments, consolidated)	668,289	587,673	+13.7%	—	630,739	✅ +6.0%	99.5%**

*BCA's own investor presentation states these YoY figures directly. Corporate's matches the growth implied by that segment's own Jun 2021 figure exactly, but Commercial & SME's and Consumer's don't - see Beyond the Usual for why. **Remaining ~0.5% is sharia financing (Rp7,073bn), reported separately from the three core lending segments; the consolidated total-loans figure elsewhere in this post (Rp675,362bn) includes that sharia book.

Every segment grew both YoY and QoQ simultaneously this quarter, restoring the pattern Q3 2021's post first documented and Q1 2022 broke. Corporate's acceleration is doing the most work on the QoQ view - it grew faster QoQ than either of the other two segments, a reversal of the pattern through most of 2021 where Consumer or Commercial & SME led. Total loan growth of 6.0% QoQ is the fastest this series has recorded for BCA, and unlike Q1's flat quarter, it's broad-based rather than concentrated in one segment.

Beyond the Usual

This is BCA's unaudited interim OJK-format filing - it carries the balance sheet, P&L, cash flow statement, and the collectability-tier asset-quality schedule, but not the deeper related-party and commitment footnotes that only accompany the full annual report (see Q1 2022's post for the same distinction). The findings below come from that schedule, the filing's own front matter, and BCA's investor presentation.

The Restructured Book's Worst Tier Grew Again, But Far Slower Than Last Quarter

BCA's Covid-19 restructured loan book (bank-only) fell to Rp72.1 trillion at Jun 2022, down 6.9% QoQ from Mar 2022's Rp77.4 trillion and 12.6% year-to-date from Dec 2021's Rp82.5 trillion - a fifth straight quarterly decline in the total book. But the same disclosure's own collectability breakdown shows the NPL tier of that restructured book grew again, to Rp10.5 trillion, up 2.1% quarter-over-quarter and 18.5% year-to-date from Dec 2021's Rp8.9 trillion - both figures reported directly by BCA itself. The Current tier fell 8.9% QoQ and Special Mention fell 3.8% QoQ, the same bifurcation every post since FY2021 has tracked: a shrinking total that keeps shrinking specifically because its healthier tiers drain out while the worst bucket keeps growing. What's different this quarter is the rate - Q1's 16.1% QoQ growth in this tier decelerated to 2.1%, the slowest pace of the four consecutive quarters (Q2 2021 through Q2 2022) this tier has grown. One quarter of deceleration doesn't retire the trend, but it's the first quarter where the deceleration case has real numbers behind it rather than just hope.

The Commercial & SME/Consumer Split Doesn't Reconcile Against Last Year's Own Numbers

Corporate's YoY growth rate this quarter (19.1%, per BCA's presentation) matches exactly what its own Jun 2021 loan figure from that quarter's post implies (Rp260,446bn to Rp310,232bn). Commercial & SME and Consumer don't reconcile the same way: BCA states Commercial & SME grew 10.9% YoY and Consumer grew 7.6% YoY, but those same segments' own Jun 2021 figures from a year ago (Rp182,787bn and Rp144,440bn respectively) imply materially different growth - 8.1% for Commercial & SME and 11.1% for Consumer, almost a mirror-image swap of the two stated rates. The combined Commercial & SME plus Consumer total is consistent either way (both computations land within a few billion rupiah of the same combined figure), which points to a reclassification of loans between the two segments sometime in the past year - likely a portion of what was booked as Consumer lending a year ago now sitting inside Commercial & SME - rather than a data error in either period. BCA's presentation doesn't disclose or flag any such reclassification; a reader comparing this quarter's segment growth against the company's own year-ago disclosure would see numbers that don't line up without knowing why.

BCA's Own Filing Names Its Ultimate Controlling Shareholders

This quarter's filing signature page discloses BCA's shareholding structure directly: PT Dwimuria Investama Andalan holds 54.94% of BCA, and the filing states plainly that Dwimuria's own shareholders are Robert Budi Hartono and Bambang Hartono - meaning they are BCA's ultimate controlling shareholders (pemegang saham pengendali terakhir), not just Dwimuria as an intermediate holding vehicle. A further 2.49 percentage points of the public float is disclosed as held by parties affiliated with Dwimuria. This isn't new information to anyone who follows Indonesian equities - the Hartono brothers' Djarum-linked holding is well known - but it's genuinely useful that BCA's own quarterly filing states the ultimate beneficial ownership chain explicitly, in a single sentence, rather than requiring a reader to trace it through a separate corporate registry.

A Rp62.5 Trillion Notional Derivatives Book, Almost Entirely FX Swaps

BCA's own spot and derivatives/forward transaction schedule discloses a total notional value of Rp62.5 trillion at 30 June 2022, bank-only, entirely classified as trading rather than hedging positions. Of that, Rp43.1 trillion (69%) is FX swaps, carrying a liability position of Rp784.3 billion against a receivable of only Rp33.3 billion - a materially lopsided mark, though on a notional this size and this short-dated (spot/forward FX instruments), a one-sided mark-to-market at a point in time says more about where the Rupiah moved intraquarter than about BCA's own risk positioning. The schedule doesn't disclose maturity buckets, so it's not possible to say from this filing alone how much of that notional rolls off within the next quarter versus sits further out.

Coverage Table

Metric	Q2 2022	Q1 2022	QoQ	Why it matters
Net profit (standalone)	Rp9,985bn	Rp8,064bn	✅ +23.8%	Reverses two straight quarters of sequential decline
Cost of credit (bank-only)	0.6%	1.9%	✅ -1.3pp	Lowest single-quarter reading this series has recorded
Restructured loan NPL tier (bank-only)	Rp10.5tn	Rp10.3tn	⚠️ +2.1%	Fourth straight quarter of growth, but sharply decelerated from +16.1%
Total loan book (consolidated)	Rp675,362bn	Rp637,131bn	✅ +6.0%	Fastest QoQ loan growth this series has tracked; all three segments grew together again
Gross NPL ratio (bank-only, point-in-time)	2.2%	2.30%	✅ -0.1pp	First YoY improvement after Q1's first-ever YoY deterioration

Target Valuation Range

P/E of ~22.4x and P/B of ~4.40x - Bottom line: shares are cheaper on both trailing multiples this quarter even though the underlying numbers improved almost across the board - the market moved the opposite direction of the fundamentals, making this the more attractively priced quarter of the two, not the richer one Q1 was.

BCA's shares closed at Rp7,250 on June 30, 2022, already reflecting the company's 1:5 stock split (effective 13 October 2021, so - like every post since Q4 2021 - this is BCA's real, actually-quoted closing price with no retroactive conversion needed, and no further split has occurred since). That's down 9.1% from Q1 2022's Rp7,975 close, though still up 20.3% year-over-year from Jun 2021's Rp6,025 close. Over the trailing two years, shares are up 16.2% from Jul 2020's Rp6,240 close, a window that includes a trough near Rp5,420 in September 2020 and a new high of Rp8,125 in April 2022 - a peak-to-trough swing of roughly 50%, wide enough to warrant this dedicated section rather than folding the move directly into valuation.

• P/E^»: ~22.4x, annualizing Q2 2022's Rp81 standalone EPS to Rp324 against the Rp7,250 close - down sharply from Q1's ~30.7x, driven by both the lower share price and a much stronger underlying quarter.
• P/B^»: ~4.40x, using book value per share of Rp1,647 (total equity Rp202,986,810 million divided by 123,275,050,000 shares outstanding, unchanged from Q1) - down from Q1's ~5.05x, as book value per share recovered from the AGM dividend's Q1 hit while the share price itself fell.

Market cap → book value	Q2 2022
Share price (period-end)	Rp7,250
Shares outstanding	123,275,050,000
Market capitalization	Rp893,744B (~$60.00B)
Book value (total equity)	Rp202,987B (~$13.63B)
P/B»	~4.40x

P/E and P/B	Q1 2022 (annualized)	Q2 2022 (annualized)	Change
EPS (annualized)	Rp260	Rp324	✅ up
P/E»	~30.7x	~22.4x	✅ down
Book value per share	Rp1,579	Rp1,647	✅ up
P/B»	~5.05x	~4.40x	✅ down

A full DCF still isn't attempted here, for the same reason as every prior post in this series: the restructured-loan pool's worst tier is still growing, even if more slowly, and one quarter of deceleration isn't enough history to anchor a discounted cash flow with real confidence about whether that tier has actually turned. Whether Q3 2022 confirms the deceleration or the tier's growth reaccelerates will matter more to a valuation call than this quarter's cheaper multiples do. The peer-multiple comparison this section would normally lean on isn't available either: no other IDX bank in this backlog has a post covering the same June 2022 quarter yet to compare against.

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