BBCA Restructured-Loan NPLs Rose Again in Q1 2022 - Was Q4's Profit Dip a One-Off?

Two Open Threads, Neither Closed the Easy Way

The FY2021 post closed with two threads left open: a restructured loan book whose worst collectability tier had grown 110.4% for the year (and 25.5% QoQ in Q4 alone) even as the book itself shrank, and a standalone Q4 net profit that fell 5.9% QoQ as provisioning bounced back 51.9% QoQ - a dip the post explicitly flagged as "worth tracking into next year's numbers rather than dismissing." One quarter later, BCA's own Q1 2022 investor presentation answers both questions directly, and neither answer is the "it was just a blip" version a reader might have hoped for.

The restructured book's NPL tier grew again - up 16.1% quarter-over-quarter to Rp10.3 trillion, and now 113.7% higher than a year ago - even as the total restructured book kept shrinking (down 6.2% QoQ to Rp77.4 trillion, a fourth straight quarterly decline). And net profit fell for a second consecutive quarter, down 1.9% QoQ to Rp8,064 billion, as provisioning expense jumped a further 68.2% QoQ on top of Q4's own 51.9% rebound. Two quarters of rising provisioning and falling sequential profit is a trend, not noise - the kind of pattern this series' own coverage-ratio and restructured-book tracking exists to catch before it shows up in a headline ratio.

None of this shows up as damage to BCA's consolidated asset-quality story, which - like every quarter in this series - keeps reading as improvement: bank-only gross NPL eased to 2.30% from a year-ago 1.83%... except that's actually worse YoY, not better, the first quarter since Sep 2021's post where the YoY comparison itself moved the wrong way rather than just the QoQ one. Bank-only NPL Coverage still improved to 244.8% from Dec 2021's 240.0%, and LAR-including-Covid coverage improved to 44.7% from 39.0% - so the picture is genuinely mixed, not uniformly bad, which is exactly why it needs unpacking rather than reading off one ratio.

The Prescription

BCA should stop letting "LAR improved to 13.8%" - the literal headline of this quarter's own investor presentation slide - stand as the summary of what happened to the restructured book, the same critique the FY2021 post made about "continued improvements" framing applied to the prior quarter's slide. LAR (Loan at Risk) falling is genuinely true and worth stating, but it's an aggregate that nets a shrinking, healthier-tier-dominated restructured book against a small but now-doubled-plus NPL tier inside that same book - two numbers moving in opposite directions inside one metric. BCA already discloses the tier breakdown (Current/Special Mention/NPL) on this same slide, in the same table, one column over - the prescription isn't more disclosure, it's giving that breakdown equal visual weight to the LAR headline instead of a footnote-sized table underneath it.

What BCA should actively stop doing: treating consecutive quarters of rising provisioning and falling sequential profit as unremarkable simply because the YoY net profit comparison still reads positive (+14.6%). A YoY comparison against a base quarter with its own idiosyncrasies (Q1 2021 was still inside a higher-provisioning stretch of the pandemic recovery) can mask two straight quarters of a QoQ trend moving the other way. If this extends into Q2 2022, the YoY framing alone won't be enough evidence of health.

Key Financial Metrics

Q1 2022 vs. Q1 2021 (P&L, consolidated unaudited interim figures), and 31 March 2022 vs. 31 December 2021 (balance sheet, consolidated)

FX: IDR 14,369.0 = USD 1 (March 31, 2022, per BCA's own filed financial statements' Reuters middle-rate disclosure) - a 0.8% Rupiah depreciation from Dec 2021's Rp14,252.5.

This is BCA's unaudited interim OJK-format filing, not the full audited annual report - it carries the balance sheet, P&L, commitments/contingencies, and the collectability-tier asset-quality schedule, but not the deeper related-party (Note 49-style) and lease/purchase-commitment footnotes that only accompany a full annual filing. See Beyond the Usual for what this quarter's schedule turned up regardless.

Metric	Q1 2022 (IDR)	Q1 2022 (USD)	Q1 2021 (IDR)	YoY
Net Interest Income	Rp14,482,713M	~$1,008.1M	Rp14,131,585M	✅ +2.5%
Non-interest operating income (gross)	Rp5,919,771M	~$412.0M	Rp4,954,335M	✅ +19.5%
Pre-tax income	Rp9,953,324M	~$692.7M	Rp8,681,143M	✅ +14.7%
Net Income (attributable to owners)	Rp8,064,433M	~$561.3M	Rp7,039,710M	✅ +14.6%
EPS (quarter, consolidated)	Rp65	~$0.0045	Rp57*	✅ +14.0%

*Rp57 is Q1 2021's originally-reported EPS restated for the company's 1:5 stock split (effective 13 October 2021), per the filing's own footnote - both quarters' EPS above are already on the same, post-split basis.

Net profit grew 14.6% YoY, continuing FY2021's broad-based recovery on a year-over-year view: NII +2.5%, non-interest income +19.5% (fee/commission income alone up 15.8% YoY per BCA's own presentation), and Pre-Provision Operating Profit (PPOP, consolidated) reached Rp12,680,484M, up 7.0% YoY. But the sequential (QoQ) view tells the other half of the story: standalone net profit fell 1.9% QoQ from Q4 2021's Rp8,224bn - a second straight sequential decline - as provisioning expense (consolidated) rose 68.2% QoQ to Rp2,818bn from Q4's Rp1,675bn, on top of Q4's own 51.9% QoQ rebound. Cost of credit (bank-only) jumped to 1.9% from Q4's 1.1% - back to exactly Q1 2021's own 1.9% reading, effectively erasing the entire year of cost-of-credit improvement this series tracked through 2021 in a single quarter.

Balance sheet metric	Mar 2022 (IDR)	Mar 2022 (USD)	Dec 2021 (IDR)	QoQ
Total Assets	Rp1,259,435,392M	~$87.65B	Rp1,228,344,680M	✅ +2.5%
Third Party Funds (deposits)*	Rp997,761,000M	~$69.44B	Rp975,949,000M	✅ +2.2%
CASA»*	Rp798,159,000M	~$55.55B	Rp767,012,000M	✅ +4.1%
Total Loans (outstanding)*	Rp637,131,000M	~$44.34B	Rp636,987,000M	⚠️ +0.02%
Total Equity (attributable to owners)	Rp194,689,318M	~$13.55B	Rp202,712,762M	⚠️ -4.0%

*Third Party Funds, CASA, and Total Loans (outstanding, consolidated including sharia financing) per BCA's own investor presentation, the same sourcing convention used since Sep 2019's post.

Total assets, deposits, and CASA all grew QoQ, but the loan book was effectively flat (+0.02% QoQ) - see Segment Comparison below for why - and equity fell 4.0% QoQ, almost entirely explained by the Rp14,793,006M dividend distribution BCA's shareholders approved at the March 2022 AGM (see Beyond the Usual). Operating cash flow was sharply negative this quarter at -Rp19,257,380M (~-$1,340.3M), driven by a Rp53,996,356M increase in reverse-repo securities purchases that consumed cash faster than the Rp20,959,326M rise in customer deposits could offset - the same large-reverse-repo-placement dynamic Q1 2021's post flagged as a deployment choice, not a funding problem, and consistent with that read again this quarter. Cash and cash equivalents closed the quarter at Rp157,504,951M (~$10.96B), down 11.2% from Dec 2021's Rp177,268,685M.

Key Operational Metrics

All ratios below are bank-only (individual) unless noted, from BCA's own filed financial-ratio disclosure and investor presentation:

• CASA ratio: 80.0% (Mar 2022, consolidated, per BCA's own investor presentation) vs 78.6% (Dec 2021) ✅ - a fresh high, continuing the multi-quarter climb FY2021's post tracked.
• LDR^»: 60.54% (Mar 2022, filed ratio) vs 61.96% (Dec 2021) ✅ - deposits still outgrowing an essentially flat loan book.
• NIM^»: 4.92% (Mar 2022, filed ratio) vs 5.10% (FY2021 full-year) ⚠️ - compression continued, though the quarterly figure (4.9% per the presentation) is essentially flat against Q4 2021's own 4.9% quarterly reading.
• ROA^»: 3.06% (Mar 2022, filed ratio) vs 3.2% (Q4 2021, quarterly, per the presentation) ⚠️ - down slightly QoQ.
• ROE^»: 16.80% (Mar 2022, filed ratio) vs 16.9% (Q4 2021, quarterly) - essentially flat QoQ.
• CAR^» (bank-only): 23.86% (Mar 2022, filed ratio) vs 25.66% (Dec 2021) ⚠️ - down QoQ, but comfortably above regulatory minimums either way (individual KPMM requirement here is 9.99%).
• NPL ratio - gross: 2.30% (Mar 2022, filed ratio) vs 1.83% (Mar 2021) ⚠️ - worse YoY, the first time in this series' recent quarters the YoY comparison itself has moved the wrong way, not just QoQ; also worse than Dec 2021's 2.16%. NPL ratio - net: 0.79% vs 0.70% a year earlier, similarly worse.
• Cost of credit (bank-only): 1.9% (Q1 2022, per the presentation) vs 1.1% (Q4 2021, quarterly) ⚠️ - a sharp jump, back to Q1 2021's own 1.9% reading (see Beyond the Usual).
• Cost-to-Income Ratio^»: 35.80% (Mar 2022, filed ratio) vs 39.4% (Q4 2021, quarterly, per the presentation) ✅ - improved back from Q4's sharp deterioration, though still above Q1 2021's own 35.3%.
• BOPO^»: 56.73% (Mar 2022, filed ratio, quarterly cumulative) vs 63.27% (Mar 2021) ✅ - a large YoY improvement.
• Loan-loss coverage (Provision/NPL, bank-only): 244.8% (Mar 2022, per the presentation) vs Dec 2021's 240.0% ✅ - continued the sequential rebuild that started in Q4 2021, though still below Q1 2021's 280.8%.
• Loan at Risk^» (ex-Covid, NPL + Special Mention + restructured-current, share of total loans): 13.8% (Mar 2022, per the presentation) vs Dec 2021's 14.6%, a further improvement - see The Prescription above for why this headline figure alone understates what's happening inside the restructured book.
• LAR Coverage with Restructured Covid & off-B/S: 44.7% (Mar 2022) vs Dec 2021's 39.0%, a substantial QoQ improvement.

The coverage-ratio gap this series has tracked since 2021 - Provision/NPL coverage minus LAR-including-Covid coverage - narrowed to 200.1 percentage points (244.8% minus 44.7%), down modestly from Dec 2021's 201.0pp, resuming the general closing trend after Q4's own uptick. That narrowing is genuine and worth crediting, but it sits alongside - not instead of - the restructured book's own NPL tier still growing in absolute terms (see Beyond the Usual).

Segment Performance

BCA reports three lending segments (consolidated, per this quarter's investor presentation): Corporate, Commercial & SME, and Consumer. Since Q3 2021, all three had grown both YoY and QoQ in the same quarter for two consecutive quarters - that streak ended here.

Corporate

Corporate loans reached Rp286,879 billion (Mar 2022), up 9.2% year-over-year but essentially flat quarter-over-quarter at +0.1% - a sharp deceleration from Q4's 6.2% QoQ pace, the segment that had been widening its lead for two straight quarters stalling out almost entirely.

Commercial & SME

Commercial & SME loans reached Rp188,803 billion (Mar 2022), up 8.2% year-over-year but down 1.1% quarter-over-quarter - the only one of the three segments to actually shrink sequentially this quarter, reversing Q4's 5.6% QoQ acceleration entirely.

Consumer

Consumer loans reached Rp154,803 billion (Mar 2022), up 7.6% year-over-year and 0.9% quarter-over-quarter - the only segment to grow on both counts this quarter, though at a slower QoQ pace than Q4's 2.6%. Within Consumer, mortgages kept growing fastest (Rp98,220 billion, +0.7% QoQ, +9.8% YoY, per the presentation's own "Mortgage portfolio reached 9.8% growth" framing), while vehicle lending turned YoY-positive for the first time in this series' 2021-22 quarters (Rp41,573 billion, +3.6% YoY, +2.4% QoQ) - the PPnBM auto-tax stimulus Q4's post noted hadn't yet turned positive finally has.

Segment Comparison

Segment	Mar 2022 (Rp bn)	Mar 2021 (Rp bn)	YoY	Dec 2021 (Rp bn)	QoQ	Share (Mar 2022)
Corporate	286,879	262,638	✅ +9.2%	286,490	⚠️ +0.1%	45.0%
Commercial & SME	188,803	174,511	✅ +8.2%	190,882	⚠️ -1.1%	29.6%
Consumer	154,803	143,922	✅ +7.6%	153,367	✅ +0.9%	24.3%
Total (three segments + sharia, consolidated)	637,131	586,796	✅ +8.6%	636,987	⚠️ +0.02%	99.3%*

*Remaining ~0.7% is sharia financing (Rp6,646bn), reported separately from the three core lending segments.

The all-three-segments-growing-both-YoY-and-QoQ pattern that held for two straight quarters through Dec 2021 broke here - Commercial & SME actually contracted QoQ, and Corporate's own growth essentially stalled at +0.1%. Every segment still grew comfortably YoY, so this reads as a normal one-quarter pause after an unusually strong Q4 rather than a reversal of the broader 2021 lending recovery - but it's a genuine change in direction worth tracking into Q2, not a continuation of the prior quarter's story.

Beyond the Usual

This is BCA's unaudited interim OJK-format filing - it carries the balance sheet, P&L, and the collectability-tier asset-quality schedule, but not the deeper related-party and commitment footnotes that only accompany the full annual report (see Q3 2021's post for the same distinction). The findings below come from that schedule and BCA's own investor presentation.

The Restructured Book's Worst Tier Grew Again, By BCA's Own Disclosure

BCA's Covid-19 restructured loan book (bank-only) fell to Rp77.4 trillion at Mar 2022, down 6.2% from Dec 2021's Rp82.5 trillion - a fourth straight quarterly decline, and BCA's own presentation again frames the falling total positively ("LAR improved to 13.8%"). But the same slide's own collectability breakdown shows the NPL tier of that restructured book grew 16.1% quarter-over-quarter to Rp10.3 trillion, and is now 113.7% higher than a year ago - both figures reported directly by BCA itself, not derived. The Current tier fell 9.7% QoQ and Special Mention fell 2.7% QoQ, continuing the same bifurcation the FY2021 post found: a shrinking total that keeps shrinking specifically because its healthier tiers are draining out while what remains increasingly lands in the worst bucket. This is now four consecutive quarters (Q2 2021 through Q1 2022) where that NPL tier has grown, three of them by double digits QoQ - not a one-quarter anomaly.

A Second Straight Quarter of Rising Provisioning and Falling Sequential Profit

Standalone net profit fell 1.9% QoQ to Rp8,064bn from Q4 2021's Rp8,224bn - the second consecutive sequential decline, following Q4's own 5.9% QoQ drop. Provisioning expense (consolidated) rose a further 68.2% QoQ to Rp2,818bn, on top of Q4's 51.9% QoQ rebound, and bank-only cost of credit jumped to 1.9% from Q4's 1.1% - back to exactly Q1 2021's own reading, effectively giving back the entire year of cost-of-credit improvement 2021's quarters built. FY2021's post flagged Q4's dip as something to track rather than dismiss "into next year's numbers rather than dismissing" - this quarter's numbers extend the same direction rather than reversing it. The filing still doesn't disclose provisioning granularly enough to attribute this directly to the restructured book's own NPL-tier growth above, but two consecutive quarters of both metrics moving together is a materially stronger signal than one.

BCA's Annual General Meeting (17 March 2022) declared a dividend of Rp145 per share (post-split basis), up 37% year-over-year, at a payout ratio of 56.9% - a large jump from FY2020's 47.9% payout ratio and the steepest single-year increase in the payout ratio this series has recorded. The dividend was paid on 19 April 2022, just after this quarter's period end, and the Rp14,793,006M provision for it is what drove most of this quarter's 4.0% QoQ decline in total equity (see Key Financial Metrics above).

Bank-only NIM compression showed early signs of stabilizing rather than deepening further: the quarterly (not cumulative) NIM reading was 4.9% for a second straight quarter (Q4 2021 and Q1 2022 both), the first time in this series' 2021-22 quarters that the sequential NIM figure hasn't fallen further from the prior quarter.

Coverage Table

Metric	Q1 2022	Q4 2021	QoQ	Why it matters
Restructured loan NPL tier (bank-only)	Rp10.3tn	Rp8.9tn	⚠️ +16.1%	Fourth straight quarter of growth in this pool - now a trend, not a blip
Net profit (standalone)	Rp8,064bn	Rp8,224bn	⚠️ -1.9%	Second straight sequential decline, not a one-off
Provisioning expense (consolidated)	Rp2,818bn	Rp1,675bn	⚠️ +68.2%	Compounds Q4's own 51.9% QoQ rebound
Gross NPL ratio (bank-only, filed)	2.30%	2.16%	⚠️ +0.14pp	Worse QoQ and worse YoY - the first YoY deterioration this series has tracked in some quarters
Total loan book (consolidated)	Rp637,131bn	Rp636,987bn	⚠️ +0.02%	Effectively flat - Commercial & SME shrank, Corporate stalled

Target Valuation Range

P/E of ~30.7x and P/B of ~5.05x - Bottom line: shares richened further on both trailing multiples this quarter even as two separate signals (restructured-book NPL growth, rising provisioning) pointed the other way - fully valued to rich, and a market that hasn't yet priced in either thread this post surfaced.

BCA's shares closed at Rp7,975 on March 31, 2022, already reflecting the company's 1:5 stock split (effective 13 October 2021, so - like Q4 2021's post - this is BCA's real, actually-quoted closing price with no retroactive conversion needed, and no further split has occurred since). That's up 9.2% from Dec 2021's Rp7,300 close, and up 28.3% year-over-year from Mar 2021's Rp6,215 - a figure BCA's own presentation confirms directly ("YoY BCA Share Price: 28.3% (Mar-22 YoY)"). Over the trailing two years, shares are up 44.3% from Mar 2020's Rp5,525 close, a window that includes a trough near Rp5,170 in April 2020 and a new high of Rp8,050 in February 2022 - a peak-to-trough swing of roughly 56%, wide enough to warrant this dedicated section rather than folding the move directly into valuation.

• P/E^»: ~30.7x, annualizing Q1 2022's Rp65 EPS to Rp260 against the Rp7,975 close - up from FY2021's ~28.6x on the full year's actual EPS, though the two aren't a clean apples-to-apples comparison since one is annualized off a single quarter and the other is a full year's actual result.
• P/B^»: ~5.05x, using book value per share of Rp1,579 (equity attributable to owners, Rp194,689,318 million, divided by 123,275,050,000 shares outstanding, unchanged from Dec 2021) - up sharply from FY2021's ~4.44x, driven by both the share price's own gain and book value per share falling as the AGM's dividend distribution shrank total equity (see Beyond the Usual).

Market cap → book value	Q1 2022
Share price (period-end)	Rp7,975
Shares outstanding	123,275,050,000
Market capitalization	Rp983,119B (~$68.42B)
Book value (equity attributable to owners)	Rp194,689B (~$13.55B)
P/B»	~5.05x

P/E and P/B	FY2021	Q1 2022 (annualized)	Change
EPS	Rp255 (actual)	Rp260 (annualized)	✅ up
P/E»	~28.6x	~30.7x	⚠️ up (basis differs, see note above)
Book value per share	Rp1,644	Rp1,579	⚠️ down
P/B»	~4.44x	~5.05x	⚠️ up

A full DCF still isn't attempted here, for the same reason as every prior post in this series: a bank with two live, unresolved threads - a restructured-loan pool whose worst tier keeps growing and a provisioning trend that's now run two consecutive quarters in the same direction - doesn't have earnings quality settled enough yet to anchor a discounted cash flow with real confidence. Whether Q2 2022 extends or breaks both trends will matter more to a valuation call than this quarter's richening multiples do. The peer-multiple comparison this section would normally lean on isn't available either: no other IDX bank in this backlog has a post covering the same March 2022 quarter yet to compare against.

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