BBCA Q1's Deposit Rally Didn't Last - So Was the LDR Squeeze Ever Actually Easing?

The Seasonal Breather Ends

Q1 2025's post asked whether BCA's loan-to-deposit ratio^» (LDR) relief - deposits growing faster than loans for the first time since the ratio became this series' central worry in FY2024 - was a genuine reversal or just a seasonal Q1 pattern repeating from a year earlier. Q2 2025 answered it: bank-only LDR jumped back to 78.0%, up 1.9 percentage points quarter-over-quarter from Q1's 76.1% and landing just 0.4 percentage points below Dec 2024's record 78.4%. Consolidated loans grew 1.9% quarter-over-quarter to Rp959.2 trillion while Third Party Funds actually shrank slightly (-0.3% QoQ to Rp1,189.8 trillion) - the exact mirror image of Q1's dynamic. CASA^» to Total Funding still improved, to 83.4% from Q1's 82.9%, so the deposit base that did grow kept skewing toward BCA's cheapest funding source - but the headline squeeze itself is back, essentially unchanged from where FY2024 left it.

Net income attributable to owners grew a healthy 8.0% year-over-year to Rp29,016,414 million for the half, with pre-provision operating profit (PPOP) growing marginally faster at 9.2% - a tighter, cleaner relationship between operating strength and the bottom line than several recent quarters. But two threads worsened together this quarter in a way Q1 alone didn't show: the bank-only NPL ratio ticked up (2.0% to 2.2%) at the same time NPL Coverage fell sharply (180.1% to 167.2%), and within the restructured loan book, the Doubtful collectability tier - the one below outright Loss - grew more than fivefold in six months even as the total restructured book itself shrank. Both are covered in Beyond the Usual.

The Prescription

BCA's Wealth Management franchise remains the clearest growth lever that doesn't touch the loan-to-deposit constraint driving this quarter's headline story - Total Assets Under Management reached Rp292 trillion (Jun 2025), up from Mar 2025's Rp279 trillion, with government bonds still the dominant contributor. The bank should keep pushing fee-generating wealth products specifically, since that income doesn't compete with the balance sheet for deposit funding the way lending does. What it should stop doing is letting the restructured loan book's internal migration go unexplained in the investor deck - the presentation reports LAR^» and NPL Coverage trends at a headline level, but a reader has to cross-reference the filed financial statements' own footnote to see that the book's Doubtful tier specifically exploded this quarter (see Beyond the Usual), a detail the deck doesn't surface at all. A bank whose entire investment case rests on disclosure quality and CASA-funded stability should flag an internal migration like this itself, not leave it for a reader willing to open the full financial statements.

Key Financial Metrics

H1 2025 vs. H1 2024 (consolidated, unaudited six-month figures, ended 30 June)

FX: IDR 16,235.0 = USD 1 (30 June 2025, per BCA's own filed financial statements' Reuters middle-rate disclosure) - a 0.9% Rupiah appreciation from Jun 2024's Rp16,375.0, and a further 2.0% appreciation from Mar 2025's Rp16,560.0.

Metric	H1 2025 (IDR)	H1 2025 (USD)	H1 2024 (IDR)	YoY
Net Interest and Sharia Income (net)	Rp42,584,951M	~$2,623.5M	Rp39,895,343M	✅ +6.7%
Non-interest operating income (gross)	Rp14,129,294M	~$870.4M	Rp12,777,832M	✅ +10.6%
Net Revenue (Operating Income, NII + non-interest)	Rp56,714,245M	~$3,493.4M	Rp52,673,175M	✅ +7.7%
Operating Income (PPOP, consolidated)	Rp37,805,118M	~$2,328.6M	Rp34,628,282M	✅ +9.2%
Net Income (attributable to owners)	Rp29,016,414M	~$1,787.5M	Rp26,876,184M	✅ +8.0%
EPS (six-month, consolidated)	Rp235	~$0.014	Rp218	✅ +7.8%

A bank has no Adjusted EBITDA or free cash flow, per this series' convention for deposit-taking institutions.

Impairment losses on assets rose 43.1% YoY (Rp1,405,716M to Rp2,011,459M), faster than PPOP's own growth - a genuine step-up in provisioning expense rather than the roughly-tracks-loan-growth pattern Q1's post described, and consistent with the NPL deterioration covered below. Standalone Q2 2025 net profit (attributable to owners) rose to Rp14,870,283 million, up 5.1% quarter-over-quarter from Q1's Rp14,146,131 million.

Balance sheet metric	Jun 2025 (IDR)	Jun 2025 (USD)	Jun 2024 (IDR)	YoY
Total Assets	Rp1,504,118,975M	~$92.66B	~Rp1,425,000,000M*	✅ +5.5%
Third Party Funds (deposits, incl. sharia)	~Rp1,189,800,000M	~$73.29B	~Rp1,125,100,000M	✅ +5.7%
CASA (demand + savings deposits)	~Rp982,100,000M	~$60.50B	~Rp915,000,000M	✅ +7.3%
Total Loans (outstanding, incl. sharia)*	~Rp959,200,000M	~$59.09B	~Rp849,800,000M	✅ +12.9%
Total Equity (attributable to owners)	Rp261,595,538M	~$16.11B	Rp240,679,250M	✅ +8.7%

*Total Assets (Jun 2024) and Total Loans, Third Party Funds, and CASA figures per BCA's own investor presentation (consolidated, including sharia financing), the same sourcing convention used since Sep 2019's post. The filed financial statements' own narrower "loans receivable" line (which excludes consumer financing and finance lease receivables reported separately) shows Rp938,229,844M at Jun 2025 versus Rp901,310,853M at Dec 2024, a smaller base than the presentation's consolidated loan figure but the same +4.1% year-to-date growth rate.

Total equity attributable to owners was essentially flat, down 0.4% year-to-date from Dec 2024's Rp262,640,621M, as the year's Rp30,818,763M FY2024 dividend payment (11 April 2025) very nearly offset the half's retained earnings - the same annual mechanism Q1 2024's post first flagged, now fully worked through by mid-year rather than showing up as an isolated Q1 dip. Operating cash flow was Rp40,923,218M (~$2,521.0M), down 12.6% from H1 2024's Rp46,837,017M - despite a much larger customer-deposit inflow this half (Rp54,826,310M net, versus Rp18,802,686M a year earlier), that swing was more than offset by a sharp reversal in short-term securities financing: "securities purchased under agreements to resell" moved from a Rp42,687,675M net cash inflow in H1 2024 to an Rp11,403,589M net outflow this half, a roughly Rp54 trillion swing that dominates the year-over-year change. Capital expenditure on fixed assets (Rp404,314M) and right-of-use assets (Rp203,870M) remained a small fraction of operating cash flow, as is typical for a bank whose cash flow is dominated by loan and deposit movements rather than capex. Cash and cash equivalents closed the half at Rp106,785,314M (~$6,578.9M), down 4.8% YoY from Jun 2024's Rp112,175,452M but up 24.9% from Dec 2024's Rp85,482,530M as the half's net deposit inflow rebuilt liquid balances.

Key Operational Metrics

Bank-only unless noted, from BCA's own investor presentation and financial-ratio disclosures:

• LDR^»: 78.0% (Jun 2025) vs Mar 2025's 76.1% ⚠️ +1.9pp QoQ, and up 5.3pp YoY from Jun 2024's 72.7% - see above.
• CASA to Total Funding (bank-only): 83.4% (Jun 2025) vs Mar 2025's 82.9% ✅ +0.5pp, and up 1.2pp YoY.
• NIM^»: 5.8% (H1 2025) vs 5.7% (H1 2024) ✅ +0.1pp, flat QoQ.
• ROA^»: 4.1% (H1 2025) vs 3.8% (H1 2024) ✅ +0.3pp - still partly a carryover of Q1's one-off subsidiary dividend; ex-dividend ROA for the half was 3.8%, per BCA's own footnote.
• ROE^»: 25.2% (H1 2025) vs 24.8% (H1 2024) ✅ +0.4pp - 23.4% excluding the same dividend.
• Cost-to-Income Ratio^»: 29.1% (H1 2025) vs 30.5% (H1 2024) ✅ -1.4pp - 30.3% excluding the dividend.
• CAR^» (bank-only): 28.4% (Jun 2025) vs Mar 2025's 26.6% ✅ +1.8pp, rebuilding after Q1's dividend-accrual dip, and up 0.6pp YoY.
• NPL ratio - gross (bank-only, point-in-time): 2.2% (Jun 2025) vs Mar 2025's 2.0% ⚠️ +0.2pp, flat YoY vs Jun 2024's 2.2%.
• NPL Coverage (Provision/NPL, bank-only): 167.2% (Jun 2025) vs Mar 2025's 180.1% ⚠️ -12.9pp QoQ, and down 23.0pp YoY from Jun 2024's 190.2% - see Beyond the Usual.
• Loan at Risk^» (bank-only, includes on & off-balance-sheet): 5.7% (Jun 2025) vs Mar 2025's 6.0% ✅ -0.3pp QoQ, but down 0.7pp YoY.
• LAR Coverage (incl. off-balance-sheet): 68.7% (Jun 2025) vs Dec 2024's 76.5% ⚠️ -7.8pp year-to-date, though up 2.2pp QoQ.
• Consumer's share of consolidated NPL: 23.8% (Jun 2025) vs Mar 2025's 22.5% ⚠️ +1.3pp - resuming the multi-quarter climb after Q1's one-quarter dip, and up from Jun 2024's 21.8%.
• Corporate's share of consolidated NPL: 36.6% (Jun 2025) vs Mar 2025's 40.0% ✅ -3.4pp - the largest single-quarter improvement in this share this series has tracked, and now below Jun 2024's 38.2% too.
• Wealth Management AUM: Rp292 trillion (Jun 2025) vs Mar 2025's Rp279 trillion - government bonds remain the dominant contributor, essentially the same composition as prior quarters.

Segment Performance

BCA continues reporting four lending lines on a fully separated basis (consolidated, per this quarter's investor presentation): Corporate, Commercial, SME, and Consumer.

Corporate

Corporate loans reached Rp451.8 trillion (Jun 2025), up 16.1% year-over-year and 1.9% quarter-over-quarter - again the fastest-growing segment on a YoY basis, extending Q1 2025's own lead. Investment loans (52% of the segment) grew 19% YoY against working capital's 14% YoY, with investment-facility utilization easing slightly to 80% from Q1's 81%.

Commercial

Commercial loans reached Rp143.6 trillion (Jun 2025), up 12.6% year-over-year and 4.5% quarter-over-quarter - the fastest QoQ pace of the four segments this quarter, a reversal from Q1 2025's own slowest-of-the-four ranking.

SME

SME loans reached Rp127.0 trillion (Jun 2025), up 11.1% year-over-year and 2.0% quarter-over-quarter, continuing to outpace industry SME lending (ex-micro) by roughly 4.4 percentage points YoY per BCA's own industry comparison - a narrower gap than Q1's roughly 8-point spread, as industry SME growth itself accelerated this quarter.

Consumer

Consumer loans reached Rp226.4 trillion (Jun 2025), up 7.6% year-over-year and 0.3% quarter-over-quarter - the softest pace of the four segments on both measures, a genuine slowdown rather than Q1's seasonally lighter booking volume. Within Consumer, mortgages grew to Rp137.6 trillion (+8.4% YoY, +1.7% QoQ) while vehicle lending eased to Rp65.4 trillion (+5.2% YoY, -2.6% QoQ) - BCA's own presentation attributes the auto-loan softness to slowing market-wide demand, noting industry new car sales (unit) fell 9.8% YoY for H1 2025. Personal loans grew to Rp23.4 trillion (+9.4% YoY), and sharia financing again grew the fastest of any segment or sub-segment at +18.2% YoY to Rp11.3 trillion, though still the smallest reported line.

Segment Comparison

Segment	Jun 2025 (Rp tn)	Jun 2024 (Rp tn)	YoY	Mar 2025 (Rp tn)	QoQ	Share (Jun 2025)
Corporate	451.8	389.2	✅ +16.1%	443.4	✅ +1.9%	47.6%
Commercial	143.6	127.5	✅ +12.6%	137.4	✅ +4.5%	15.1%
SME	127.0	114.3	✅ +11.1%	124.5	✅ +2.0%	13.4%
Consumer	226.4	210.4	✅ +7.6%	225.7	✅ +0.3%	23.9%
Total (four segments, consolidated)	948.8	841.4	✅ +12.8%	931.0	✅ +1.9%	100.0%

All four segments grew both year-over-year and quarter-over-quarter simultaneously for a seventh straight quarter, extending the streak Q1 2025's post traced back to Q4 2023. Commercial's 4.5% QoQ pace led the group this quarter, a reshuffle from Corporate's usual lead - though Corporate still holds the fastest YoY pace by a wide margin.

Beyond the Usual

This quarter's downloaded document is the unaudited interim financial statements, carrying footnote detail on restructured loans, related-party transactions, commitments and contingencies, and the tax reconciliation between consolidated and bank-only income - the same scope as prior interim quarters, not the fuller annual-report disclosure.

The Restructured Book's Doubtful Tier Grew More Than Fivefold in Six Months

The Bank's own filed restructured-loan footnote shows the "Doubtful" collectability tier within the restructured book jumping from Rp221,515 million at Dec 2024 to Rp1,140,412 million at Jun 2025 - a 415% increase in two quarters, while the total restructured book itself actually shrank over the same period (Rp29,606,828 million at Jun 2025 versus Mar 2025's Rp33,909,807 million, a 12.7% quarter-over-quarter decline that partially reverses Q1's own sharp increase). The combined restructured-and-NPL tier (Sub-standard + Doubtful + Loss) still grew to Rp11,398,394 million from Mar 2025's Rp10,777,743 million, up 5.8% quarter-over-quarter - a smaller headline move than the Doubtful-tier figure alone suggests, because Loss (the worst tier) grew more modestly (Rp9,420,098 million at Dec 2024 to Rp9,914,641 million at Jun 2025, +5.2% over six months) while Sub-standard actually fell. None of BCA's own presentation materials call out this specific migration - a reader relying on the deck's headline LAR and NPL Coverage figures alone would see a modest deterioration story, not the concentrated multiple-fold jump sitting inside one collectability tier of the restructured book.

NPL Ratio and Coverage Moved the Wrong Way Together for a Second Straight Quarter

Bank-only NPL Coverage (Provision/NPL) fell to 167.2% as of 30 June 2025, down 12.9 percentage points from Mar 2025's 180.1% - and this time the underlying NPL ratio moved the same unfavorable direction rather than offsetting it, rising from 2.0% to 2.2%. Consolidated NPL outstanding grew to Rp20.5 trillion, up 9.7% quarter-over-quarter and 13.4% year-over-year, the fastest pace of increase this series has recorded for the absolute balance. Consumer's own share of that consolidated NPL resumed its multi-quarter climb after Q1's one-quarter dip, reaching 23.8% from 22.5% - though Corporate's share fell sharply, from 40.0% to 36.6%, the largest single-quarter drop in that share this series has tracked. Coverage still sits well above 100% (provisions still exceed the non-performing balance outright), so this remains a trend to track rather than a solvency signal at BCA's scale - but two consecutive quarters of NPL ratio and coverage both worsening together, rather than one offsetting the other, is a firmer deterioration signal than either quarter shows in isolation.

Wealth Management Kept Compounding on the Same Government-Bond Base

Total Assets Under Management reached Rp292 trillion as of June 2025, up from Mar 2025's Rp279 trillion - continuing the growth trend flagged last quarter, with the presentation again naming government bonds as the main contributor given the still-attractive yield environment. The composition point Q1's post made about concentration hasn't changed materially this quarter, so it isn't repeated as a fresh finding here - a reader wanting the detail on how narrow that base is should see the prior quarter's writeup.

The Bank Bought Back Its Own Shares for the First Time This Series

BCA's consolidated statement of changes in equity shows a new Rp249,992 million treasury stock line as of 30 June 2025 (28,317,500 shares), the first time this series has recorded BCA holding treasury shares rather than only issuing dividends as its capital-return mechanism. The financial statements don't detail the buyback's rationale, timing within the half, or intended future use (cancellation, employee compensation, or resale) in the notes reviewed for this post - worth watching for a fuller disclosure in a subsequent quarter's annual report.

Coverage Table

Metric	Jun 2025	Jun 2024	YoY	Why it matters
Consolidated Loans (four segments)	Rp948.8tn	Rp841.4tn	✅ +12.8%	Seventh straight quarter of simultaneous YoY/QoQ growth across all four
Third Party Funds	~Rp1,189.8tn	~Rp1,125.1tn	✅ +5.7%	Grew slower than loans this quarter, reversing Q1's dynamic - see above
LDR (bank-only)	78.0%	72.7%	⚠️ +5.3pp	Back near Dec 2024's 78.4% record after Q1's brief dip
NPL Coverage (bank-only)	167.2%	190.2%	⚠️ -23.0pp	Falling alongside a worsening NPL ratio, not offsetting it - see Beyond the Usual
Restructured book's Doubtful tier	Rp1,140.4bn	n/a	⚠️ +415% (6 months)	Concentrated migration the deck's headline ratios don't surface
Total Equity (attributable to owners)	Rp261.6tn	Rp240.7tn	✅ +8.7%	Fully absorbed the FY2024 dividend and grew past it

Target Valuation Range

P/E of ~18.8x and P/B of ~4.09x - BCA looks fractionally cheaper than a quarter ago on both trailing multiples, with the share price essentially flat over the past two years even as earnings and book value kept compounding - a valuation that's neither stretched nor obviously cheap for a bank still growing loans at a low-double-digit pace.

BCA's shares closed at Rp8,675 on 30 June 2025, up 2.1% from Mar 2025's Rp8,500 close and down 12.6% year-over-year from Jun 2024's Rp9,925. Over the trailing two years, shares ranged from Feb 2025's Rp8,425 low to Aug/Sep 2024's Rp10,325 high - a peak-to-trough swing of roughly 18.4%, again below the threshold this series uses to justify a dedicated price section, so the move is folded into valuation here. BCA's last stock split (1:5) took effect 13 October 2021, well before this two-year window begins, so no split adjustment applies to these prices.

• P/E^»: ~18.8x, using the trailing four quarters' net profit attributable to owners (Rp14,197.7bn + Rp13,762.4bn + Rp14,146.1bn + Rp14,870.3bn = Rp56,976.5bn, Q3 2024 through Q2 2025) against the Rp8,675 close and 123,275,050,000 shares outstanding - roughly flat from Mar 2025's ~18.7x, as the modest 2.1% QoQ price gain was matched by trailing-four-quarter earnings growth.
• P/B^»: ~4.09x, using book value per share of Rp2,122 (total equity attributable to owners, Rp261,595,538 million, divided by 123,275,050,000 shares) - down from Mar 2025's ~4.25x, as book value per share grew faster than the share price.

Market cap → book value	Q2 2025
Share price (period-end)	Rp8,675
Shares outstanding	123,275,050,000
Market capitalization	Rp1,069,411B (~$65.88B)
Book value (equity attributable to owners)	Rp261,596B (~$16.11B)
P/B»	~4.09x

P/E and P/B (TTM basis)	Q1 2025	Q2 2025	Change
EPS (TTM)	Rp455.1	Rp462.2	✅ up
P/E»	~18.7x	~18.8x	⚠️ up (roughly flat)
Book value per share	Rp1,998	Rp2,122	✅ up
P/B»	~4.25x	~4.09x	✅ down

A full DCF still isn't attempted here, for the same reason as every prior post in this series - BCA's durable growth rate is easier to describe qualitatively (CASA-funded, broad-based double-digit loan growth across four simultaneously-growing segments) than to pin to a single confident multi-year cash-flow forecast, and no other IDX bank in this backlog yet has a post covering the same June 2025 quarter for a peer-multiple comparison. At ~18.8x trailing earnings and ~4.09x book for a bank growing loans in the low-teens annually with CASA funding still improving, BCA doesn't look mispriced on either multiple - though a reader should weigh that against this quarter's NPL Coverage decline and the restructured book's Doubtful-tier migration flagged in Beyond the Usual before treating the flat multiples as a clean bill of health.

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