BBCA Is the Bank Running Out of Cheap Deposits to Lend Against?

Loan Growth Has Now Outrun Deposit Growth for Two Straight Years

Q3 2024's post closed by noting a "sixth straight quarter of rising loan-to-deposit pressure as loan growth continues to outpace deposit growth" - a trend line, not yet a headline number. FY2024 is the quarter that number actually arrived: bank-only LDR^» jumped from 70.2% at FY2023 to 78.4% at FY2024, an 8.2 percentage-point single-year move - the largest annual change this series has recorded for the ratio, more than double FY2023's own 5.0pp rise over FY2022. The mechanics are simple: consolidated loans grew 13.8% YoY to Rp921.9 trillion, while consolidated Third Party Funds grew just 2.9% YoY to Rp1,133.6 trillion - a fifth straight year where BCA's loan book has compounded faster than its deposit base, now widening rather than narrowing.

This isn't a liquidity crisis by any conventional measure - BCA's own CASA^» ratio actually improved to a fresh high of 81.5% (from 80.3% a year earlier) as savings and current accounts both grew faster than time deposits, and the bank's Net Stable Funding Ratio (155.9%) and Liquidity Coverage Ratio (306.0%) both still sit comfortably above regulatory minimums even after double-digit declines of their own. But the CASA-funded lending machine this series has tracked since 2016 has always relied on deposits growing at least in step with loans; FY2024 is the first full year where that stopped being true by a wide margin, and it happened in the same year net income grew a healthy 12.7% - a reminder that a bank's balance-sheet capacity constraint and its income statement can move in opposite directions for a while before the former catches up with the latter.

The Prescription

BCA's four-segment lending engine kept growing broadly through FY2024 - Corporate (+15.7% YoY), Commercial (+8.9%), SME (+14.8%), and Consumer (+12.4%) all expanded, with Wealth Management AUM the standout at +34.6% YoY to Rp268.4 trillion - and the bank should keep leaning into that AUM growth specifically, since it's a fee-generating, non-balance-sheet-intensive way to keep growing revenue without adding more pressure to the loan-to-deposit constraint the year's numbers just made visible. What it should stop doing is treating deposit growth as something that will simply keep pace with loan growth because it always has. Five years of loans outgrowing deposits is no longer a one-off financing choice - it's a structural pattern, and continuing FY2024's 13.8% loan-growth pace against 2.9% deposit growth for even one more year would push LDR past 85%, a level that starts constraining growth rather than just narrowing a buffer. BCA's own investor presentation shows LDR and CASA ratio in the same deck without connecting the two trends explicitly; a bank whose entire investment case rests on cheap CASA funding should be the first to flag when that funding is starting to lag what it's being asked to support.

Key Financial Metrics

FY2024 vs. FY2023 (consolidated, audited annual figures, year ended 31 December)

FX: IDR 16,095.0 = USD 1 (31 December 2024, per BCA's own filed financial statements' Reuters middle-rate disclosure) - a 4.5% Rupiah depreciation from Dec 2023's Rp15,397.0.

Metric	FY2024 (IDR)	FY2024 (USD)	FY2023 (IDR)	YoY
Net Interest Income (+ sharia)	Rp82,264,164M	~$5,111.9M	Rp74,937,565M	✅ +9.8%
Non-interest income (gross)	Rp26,042,377M	~$1,618.1M	Rp23,579,119M	✅ +10.5%
Net Revenue (Operating Income, NII + non-interest)	Rp108,306,541M	~$6,730.0M	Rp98,516,684M	✅ +9.9%
Operating Income (PPOP, consolidated)	Rp70,252,303M	~$4,365.0M	Rp61,235,949M	✅ +14.7%
Net Income (attributable to owners)	Rp54,836,305M	~$3,407.3M	Rp48,639,122M	✅ +12.7%
EPS (full-year, consolidated)	Rp445	~$0.028	Rp395	✅ +12.7%

A bank has no Adjusted EBITDA or free cash flow, per this series' convention for deposit-taking institutions.

Impairment losses on assets jumped 92.6% YoY (Rp1,056,192M to Rp2,034,453M) - a sharp move, but one that tracks the year's 13.8% loan-book growth rather than signaling fresh credit stress: bank-only cost of credit actually held flat at 0.3% for the full year, and Q4 alone ran negative 0.1% (a net provisioning recovery), down from Q3's 0.6% - the sharpest single-quarter swing in the ratio's direction this series has recorded outside a pandemic-era quarter. Standalone Q4 net profit was ~Rp13.8 trillion (per BCA's own investor presentation), down 3.1% quarter-over-quarter from Q3's Rp14,197,679 million, even as full-year PPOP accelerated - Q4's cost-to-income ratio rose 5.0 percentage points QoQ (30.1% to 35.1%), the usual year-end pattern of heavier administrative and provisioning bookings compressing the standalone quarter without derailing the full-year trend.

Balance sheet metric	Dec 2024 (IDR)	Dec 2024 (USD)	Dec 2023 (IDR)	YoY
Total Assets	Rp1,449,301,328M	~$90.05B	Rp1,408,107,010M	✅ +2.9%
Third Party Funds (deposits, incl. sharia)*	~Rp1,133,600,000M	~$70.43B	~Rp1,101,700,000M	✅ +2.9%
CASA» (demand + savings deposits)*	~Rp924,000,000M	~$57.41B	~Rp884,600,000M	✅ +4.4%
Total Loans (outstanding, incl. sharia)*	~Rp921,900,000M	~$57.28B	~Rp810,400,000M	✅ +13.8%
Total Equity (attributable to owners)	Rp262,640,621M	~$16.32B	Rp242,356,256M	✅ +8.4%

*Third Party Funds, CASA, and Total Loans per BCA's own investor presentation (consolidated, including sharia financing), the same sourcing convention used since Sep 2019's post.

Total equity attributable to owners closed the year 8.4% above Dec 2023, having fully absorbed the FY2023 dividend payout early in the year and compounded past it on record retained earnings - a cleaner full-year picture than Q1 2024's dividend-driven drawdown suggested in isolation. Full-year operating cash flow was Rp53,820,229M (~$3,344.0M), down 7.3% from FY2023's Rp58,063,775M, as heavier loan disbursement (a net Rp111,218,318M cash outflow into loans receivable, versus Rp100,405,857M a year earlier) outweighed stronger deposit inflows. Capital expenditure on fixed assets (Rp3,565,731M) and right-of-use assets (Rp607,448M) remained a small fraction of operating cash flow, as is typical for a bank whose cash flow is dominated by loan and deposit movements rather than capex. Cash and cash equivalents closed the year at Rp85,482,530M (~$5,311.0M), down 31.3% from Dec 2023's Rp124,395,987M, as a larger share of the year's inflows were redeployed into loans and investment securities rather than held as cash - consistent with the loan-growth-outpacing-deposits story above rather than a liquidity concern on its own, given CASA and CAR both stayed healthy.

Key Operational Metrics

Bank-only unless noted, from BCA's own investor presentation and financial-ratio disclosures:

• CASA to Total Funding (bank-only): 82.4% (Dec 2024) vs Sep 2024's 82.2% ✅ +0.2pp, and up 1.3pp for the full year (81.1% at FY2023).
• LDR^»: 78.4% (FY2024) vs FY2023's 70.2% ⚠️ +8.2pp - see Loan Growth Has Now Outrun Deposit Growth above; +3.3pp QoQ alone in Q4.
• NIM^»: 5.8% (FY2024) vs 5.5% (FY2023) ✅ +0.3pp - a third straight year of widening; Q4 alone hit 6.0%, up from Q3's 5.9%.
• ROA^»: 3.9% (FY2024) vs 3.6% (FY2023) ✅ +0.3pp.
• ROE^»: 24.6% (FY2024) vs 23.5% (FY2023) ✅ +1.1pp - Q4 alone eased slightly to 24.2% from Q3's 24.6% as the growing equity base kept diluting the ratio.
• CAR^» (bank-only): 29.4% (FY2024) vs FY2023's 29.4% - unchanged for the year, fully recovering from Q1 2024's dividend-driven dip to 26.3%.
• NPL ratio - gross (bank-only, point-in-time): 1.8% (31 Dec 2024) vs Sep 2024's 2.1% ✅ -0.3pp, and 0.1pp better than Dec 2023's 1.9%.
• NPL Coverage (Provision/NPL, bank-only): 208.5% (Dec 2024) vs Sep 2024's 193.9% ✅ +14.6pp QoQ, but still 25.6 percentage points below Dec 2023's 234.1% - see Beyond the Usual.
• Cost-to-Income Ratio^»: 31.5% (FY2024) vs 34.1% (FY2023) ✅ -2.6pp improvement for the year, despite Q4 alone rising to 35.1% from Q3's 30.1%.
• Cost of credit (bank-only): 0.3% (FY2024) vs 0.3% (FY2023) - flat for the year; Q4 alone was -0.1% (a net recovery) vs Q3's 0.6%.
• Loan at Risk^» (consolidated, includes on & off-balance-sheet): eased YoY, continuing the gradual improvement Sep 2024's post tracked.
• Wealth Management AUM: Rp268.4 trillion (Dec 2024) vs Rp199.5 trillion (Dec 2023) ✅ +34.6% YoY - the fastest-growing single metric in this quarter's deck, and a genuinely fee-generating growth lever that doesn't add to the loan-to-deposit pressure above.

Seasonally, Q4 is typically BCA's heaviest quarter for administrative bookings and year-end provisioning true-ups, consistent with cost-to-income and the standalone net-profit dip both moving in the "worse" direction QoQ even as the full-year trend in both improved - this is a recurring year-end pattern this series has observed in multiple prior Q4/FY closes, not a fresh deterioration.

Segment Performance

BCA continues reporting four lending lines on a fully separated basis (consolidated, per this quarter's investor presentation): Corporate, Commercial, SME, and Consumer.

Corporate

Corporate loans reached Rp426.8 trillion (Dec 2024), up 15.7% year-over-year and 7.8% quarter-over-quarter - the fastest full-year growth rate of the four segments, continuing Q3 2024's reacceleration after H1's near-flat pace. Corporate remains the largest segment at 46.3% of the four-segment total, and its NPL share reversed higher this quarter after four straight quarters of decline (see Beyond the Usual).

Commercial

Commercial loans reached Rp137.9 trillion (Dec 2024), up 8.9% year-over-year and 2.0% quarter-over-quarter - the slowest full-year pace of the four segments, a deceleration from Q3 2024's 6.1% QoQ standout pace.

SME

SME loans reached Rp123.8 trillion (Dec 2024), up 14.8% year-over-year and 3.0% quarter-over-quarter, continuing to outpace the broader industry SME lending trend this series has tracked for several straight quarters.

Consumer

Consumer loans reached Rp223.7 trillion (Dec 2024), up 12.4% year-over-year and 3.3% quarter-over-quarter. Within Consumer, mortgages grew to Rp135.5 trillion (+11.2% YoY, +3.9% QoQ) and vehicle lending to Rp65.3 trillion (+14.8% YoY, +1.9% QoQ) - vehicle lending again the fastest-growing Consumer sub-segment, extending the pattern every quarter this series has tracked since the sub-segments were first split out. Personal loans grew to Rp22.9 trillion (+12.8% YoY), and sharia financing - still the smallest reported line at Rp10.7 trillion - again grew the fastest of any segment or sub-segment at +18.9% YoY.

Segment Comparison

Segment	Dec 2024 (Rp tn)	Dec 2023 (Rp tn)	YoY	Sep 2024 (Rp tn)	QoQ	Share (Dec 2024)
Corporate	426.8	368.9	✅ +15.7%	395.9	✅ +7.8%	46.3%
Commercial	137.9	126.6	✅ +8.9%	135.3	✅ +2.0%	15.0%
SME	123.8	107.8	✅ +14.8%	120.1	✅ +3.0%	13.4%
Consumer	223.7	199.1	✅ +12.4%	216.5	✅ +3.3%	24.3%
Total (four segments, consolidated)	912.2	802.4	✅ +13.7%	867.8	✅ +5.1%	100.0%

All four segments grew both year-over-year and quarter-over-quarter simultaneously for a fifth straight quarter, a streak that now spans every quarter since Q4 2023. Corporate's 7.8% QoQ pace was the standout this quarter, a reacceleration from Q3 2024's own 1.8% QoQ that pulled the segment's full-year growth rate above every other segment's.

Beyond the Usual

This quarter's downloaded documents include the full audited annual report and financial statements, giving deeper footnote access than the interim filings earlier in the year - the findings below come from the restructured-loan note, the post-employment benefits note, the related-party transactions note, and the annual report's own legal-cases disclosure.

Consumer's Share of Total NPL Kept Rising for a Fifth Straight Quarter, While Corporate's Reversed Back Up

Consumer's share of consolidated non-performing loans climbed again this quarter, to 22.9% at Dec 2024 from Sep 2024's 22.2% - the fifth straight quarterly increase this series has tracked (19.7% at Dec 2023, 21.3% at Mar 2024, 21.8% at Jun 2024, 22.2% at Sep 2024, 22.9% at Dec 2024). But the four-quarter reversal on the Corporate side that Q3 2024's post flagged as falling to 36.5% didn't continue: Corporate's own NPL share ticked back up to ~40.2% at Dec 2024, its first increase since Q1 2024. Net income still grew a healthy 12.7% for the year and the headline bank-only NPL ratio actually improved (1.9% to 1.8%), so this isn't yet a stress signal at BCA's scale - but a reader tracking only the consolidated ratio would miss that the underlying mix has moved in two different directions within the same year, and Consumer's rising share specifically is worth continuing to watch given its typically higher loss-given-default profile relative to Corporate's secured exposures.

NPL Coverage Recovered Within the Quarter, But Still Sits Well Below a Year Ago

Provision/NPL coverage (bank-only) rebuilt sharply within Q4, from Sep 2024's 193.9% to 208.5% at Dec 2024 - a genuine quarter-over-quarter improvement. But on a full-year basis the ratio is still 25.6 percentage points below Dec 2023's 234.1%, meaning FY2024 closes with a materially thinner loss-absorption buffer against non-performing loans than FY2023 did, even after the NPL ratio itself improved over the same period. The two facts - a better point-in-time NPL ratio and a thinner coverage cushion against it - aren't contradictory (a bank can have fewer bad loans and still hold proportionally less in reserve against them), but BCA's own disclosures present the two ratios as separate line items without reconciling the trend for a reader.

The Restructured Loan Book Shrank Nearly 30% for the Year, and Its Worst Tier Improved Too

Total restructured loans (bank-only) fell to Rp28,786,602 million as of 31 December 2024, down 29.1% from Dec 2023's Rp40,581,823 million - the steepest annual decline this series has tracked since the OJK's Covid-era relaxation formally ended 31 March 2024. The book's worst collectability tier (Sub-standard + Doubtful + Loss, classified as restructured-and-NPL) fell to Rp10,028,447 million, down 6.3% from Dec 2023's Rp10,702,901 million and down a further 15.2% quarter-over-quarter from Sep 2024's Rp11,819,601 million - continuing the reversal Q3 2024 first found real evidence for, and now a two-quarter trend rather than a one-off improvement. Within the book, the "Current" tier fell to Rp11,897,353 million from Rp21,392,020 million a year ago, while "Loss" grew to Rp9,420,098 million from Rp8,532,659 million - the shrinking book keeps skewing toward its worse tiers even as its total size keeps falling, the same dynamic Q3 2024's post described.

A Related-Party Civil Lawsuit Directly Challenges BCA's Own Covid-19 Restructuring Practice

BCA's annual report discloses an ongoing civil case (case no. 676/PDT.G/2021/PN.Jkt.Pst, currently in Judicial Review) in which a debtor alleges BCA committed an unlawful act by failing to provide Covid-19 credit restructuring in accordance with OJK's stimulus regulation - the same restructuring policy this series has tracked as a recurring theme since 2020, now the subject of active litigation against the bank's own application of it. BCA's total civil law cases also climbed for a second straight year (419 in 2024, versus 374 in 2023 and 346 in 2022), though the bank's own disclosure characterizes the handful of cases exceeding Rp50 billion in claimed value - including this one and a separate securities-related case in cassation - as individually immaterial to business continuity. Given the restructuring policy's outsized role in this series' own multi-year analysis of BCA's asset quality, a case testing whether the bank administered it correctly is worth tracking regardless of its claimed monetary size.

The Related-Party Pension Funding Share That Looked Like It Was Shrinking Fully Reversed by Year-End

Q3 2024's post flagged that the share of BCA's total pension contribution paid to its own related-party foundation, Dana Pensiun BCA, had fallen sharply to 57.46% of the nine-month total, down from 86.00% a year earlier. That shift didn't survive into the full year: the related-party share closed FY2024 at 86.09% (Rp484,182 million of total pension plan contributions), essentially flat against FY2023's 85.84% (Rp431,993 million). Whatever drove the interim dip - a timing difference in when contributions were booked within the year, most likely - fully unwound by year-end, meaning the year-over-year comparison that actually matters shows continuity in how BCA funds its own pension foundation, not the shift Q3's interim figures on their own suggested.

BCA also disclosed a large one-off increase in funds set aside to support employee post-employment benefit obligations - Rp752,365 million placed with insurance companies and a DPLK severance-compensation program (PPUKP) during FY2024, versus just Rp2,818 million the year before. This is a genuinely new pre-funding action for a benefit obligation the Bank already carries on its balance sheet, not a change to the obligation itself, and reads as prudent liability management rather than anything concerning.

Coverage Table

Metric	FY2024	FY2023	YoY	Why it matters
Consolidated Loans (incl. sharia)	~Rp921.9tn	~Rp810.4tn	✅ +13.8%	Fastest full-year loan growth this series has recorded
Third Party Funds	~Rp1,133.6tn	~Rp1,101.7tn	✅ +2.9%	Growing far slower than loans, for a second straight year
LDR (bank-only)	78.4%	70.2%	⚠️ +8.2pp	The year's real structural story - see opening section
NPL ratio (bank-only, gross)	1.8%	1.9%	✅ -0.1pp	Improved even as the underlying segment mix shifted, see Beyond the Usual
NPL Coverage (bank-only)	208.5%	234.1%	⚠️ -25.6pp	Thinner buffer despite the better point-in-time ratio
Restructured book's worst tier (bank-only)	Rp10.0tn	Rp10.7tn	✅ -6.3%	Second straight quarter of improvement
Total Equity (attributable to owners)	Rp262.6tn	Rp242.4tn	✅ +8.4%	Fully recovered from Q1's dividend drawdown, then compounded

Target Valuation Range

P/E of ~21.7x and P/B of ~4.54x - BCA looks fairly valued to slightly cheaper than a quarter ago - both trailing P/E and P/B compressed from Q3's readings as the share price pulled back faster than earnings or book value grew, offering a modest margin of safety against the year's real open question (the loan-to-deposit trend) without yet pricing in any actual deterioration.

BCA's shares closed at Rp9,675 on 30 December 2024 (the last trading day of the year), down 6.3% from Sep 2024's Rp10,325 close but up 2.9% for the full year from Dec 2023's Rp9,400. Over the trailing two years, shares ranged from Jan 2023's Rp8,475 low to Aug/Sep 2024's Rp10,325 high - a peak-to-trough swing of roughly 21.8%, below the threshold this series uses to justify a dedicated price section, so the move is folded into valuation here rather than given its own heading. BCA's last stock split (1:5) took effect 13 October 2021, well before this two-year window begins, so no further split adjustment applies to these prices.

• P/E^»: ~21.7x, using FY2024's full-year net profit attributable to owners (Rp54,836,305M) against the Rp9,675 close and 123,275,050,000 shares outstanding - a compression from Sep 2024's ~23.9x, as the share price fell 6.3% QoQ while trailing earnings kept growing.
• P/B^»: ~4.54x, using book value per share of Rp2,131 (total equity attributable to owners, Rp262,640,621 million, divided by 123,275,050,000 shares) - down from Sep 2024's ~4.98x, as book value per share grew faster than the falling share price.

Market cap → book value	FY2024
Share price (period-end)	Rp9,675
Shares outstanding	123,275,050,000
Market capitalization	Rp1,192,686B (~$74.10B)
Book value (equity attributable to owners)	Rp262,641B (~$16.32B)
P/B»	~4.54x

P/E and P/B	Q3 2024 (TTM)	FY2024 (actual)	Change
EPS	Rp432.3	Rp444.8	✅ up
P/E»	~23.9x	~21.7x	✅ down
Book value per share	Rp2,075	Rp2,131	✅ up
P/B»	~4.98x	~4.54x	✅ down

A full DCF still isn't attempted here, for the same reason as every prior post in this series - BCA's durable growth rate is easier to describe qualitatively (CASA-funded, broad-based double-digit loan growth across four simultaneously-growing segments) than to pin to a single confident multi-year cash-flow forecast, and that qualitative description now needs the loan-to-deposit caveat above attached to it. The peer-multiple comparison this section would normally lean on also isn't available yet, since no other IDX bank in this backlog has a post covering the same December 2024 quarter. At ~21.7x trailing earnings and ~4.5x book for a bank still growing loans in the mid-teens annually, BCA isn't expensive relative to its own recent history, but a reader should weigh the loan-to-deposit trend and the NPL-mix shift (see Beyond the Usual) against a multiple that's cheapened mostly on price movement rather than any change in the underlying growth story.

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