BBRI Every Guidance Metric Was Beaten This Quarter. The Stock Just Hit a Two-Year Low Anyway.

A Clean Guidance Sweep That the Market Didn't Buy

BRI's consolidated net income attributable to owners came in at Rp15,492,710 million for Q1 2026, up 13.74% YoY from Q1 2025's Rp13,621,549 million. Consolidated net revenue (Net Interest, Net Premium and Insurance Services Income) grew 11.51% YoY to Rp40,435,436 million, and operating income (Profit from Operations) grew 13.88% YoY to Rp20,059,926 million - a rare quarter where all three headline lines moved the same direction, and the profit growth wasn't manufactured by cost-cutting below the operating line.

More strikingly, BRI Group's own 2026 guidance scorecard shows all four tracked metrics either beating or meeting target one quarter in: loan growth of 13.74% YoY against a 7%-9% band ("Exceed"), NIM of 7.87% against 7.4%-7.8% ("Exceed"), Credit Cost of 3.20% against 2.9%-3.2% ("Inline"), and CIR of 40.75% against 41%-43% ("Exceed"). This is the cleanest guidance sweep this series has recorded for BRI - every prior 2025 quarter missed at least one band, usually more than one. And the stock fell anyway. BRI shares closed Q1 2026 at Rp3,330, down 9.02% QoQ from FY2025's Rp3,660 close and a fresh trading low over the trailing two years, dipping below even February 2025's Rp3,360 trough (see Stock Price below). A quarter this clean on paper not moving the share price is itself a signal worth taking seriously - the market is pricing in something the guidance scorecard doesn't capture.

That something is largely about where the loan growth came from, and what it's costing to sustain the Micro segment's credit quality while the fast-growing segments carry the headline number (see Growth Still Concentrated Away From BRI's Core Franchise below).

The Prescription

BRI should formalize a segment-specific underwriting and provisioning framework rather than a single consolidated "Credit Cost: 2.9%-3.2%" guidance band, because a blended target that lands "Inline" can still mask a genuinely deteriorating book underneath - which is exactly what's happening in Micro, where NPL has now risen for a second straight period (3.80% at FY2025, 4.15% now) even as the consolidated figure stays inside guidance. Management's own disclosure that a single 2023 Kupedes loan cohort drives nearly 30% of Micro's gross NPL downgrades suggests the problem is concentrated and identifiable, not diffuse - which makes it fixable with segment-level tools, not just a bank-wide credit-cost ceiling.

What BRI should stop doing: treating one-off shocks (a natural disaster in Sumatra, a specific 2023 vintage cohort) as absorbable inside the existing credit-cost band via ad hoc overlays, rather than disclosing their scale and duration on their own terms. The Rp2.2 trillion overlay reserved this quarter for Kupedes-related exposures and Sumatra disaster-impacted loans - by management's own account, contributing roughly 38 basis points to the reported cost of credit - is large enough that a reader can't tell from the guidance scorecard alone how much of "Inline" performance is genuinely clean underwriting versus a reserve absorbing a specific, non-recurring shock. Guidance that reads clean while carrying an unquantified one-off buffer isn't fully guidance.

Key Financial Metrics

Three months ended March 31, 2026 vs. three months ended March 31, 2025, consolidated

FX: approximately Rp16,994.50 = USD 1 as of March 31, 2026, per BRI's own filing footnote (versus Rp16,560.00 = USD 1 a year earlier).

Metric	Q1 2026 (IDR)	Q1 2026 (USD)	Q1 2025 (IDR)	YoY
Net Interest, Net Premium and Insurance Services Income ("Net Revenue" equivalent)	Rp40,435,436M	~$2,379M	Rp36,263,215M	✅ +11.51%
Operating Income (Profit from Operations)	Rp20,059,926M	~$1,180M	Rp17,615,336M	✅ +13.88%
Net Income (attributable to owners)	Rp15,492,710M	~$912M	Rp13,621,549M	✅ +13.74%
EPS (basic, consolidated, as filed)	Rp103	~$0.0061	Rp90	✅ +14.44%

Balance sheet: March 2026 vs. December 2025 (QoQ) and March 2025 (YoY), consolidated, as filed, total equity on an attributable-to-owners basis unless noted

Balance sheet metric	Mar 2026 (IDR)	Mar 2026 (USD)	Dec 2025 (IDR)	QoQ	Mar 2025 (IDR)	YoY
Total Assets	Rp2,249,834B	~$132,386M	Rp2,135,371B	✅ +5.36%	Rp2,098,229B	✅ +7.23%
Total Loan & Financing (incl. subsidiaries, per BRI's own presentation)	Rp1,562,451B	~$91,939M	Rp1,521,486B	✅ +2.69%	Rp1,373,661B	✅ +13.74%
Total Deposits (Third Party Funds)	Rp1,555,124B	~$91,508M	Rp1,466,844B	✅ +6.02%	Rp1,421,600B	✅ +9.39%
Total Equity (attributable to owners)	Rp338,204B	~$19,901M	Rp324,034B	✅ +4.37%	Rp299,611B	✅ +12.88%
Total Cash and Cash Equivalents (per cash flow statement, period-end)	Rp187,832B	~$11,053M	Rp131,236B	✅ +43.13%	Rp265,314B	⚠️ -29.20%

Total cash fell sharply YoY (down for a second straight period) even as it rebounded QoQ off Q4 2025's low base - the QoQ jump reflects the usual seasonal deposit inflow into Q1, while the YoY decline shows this quarter's cash position is still well below where it stood a year ago, before FY2025's cash drawdown to fund loan growth (see [Q4 2025's post](/analysis/bbri/2025-12/#key-financial-metrics)).

Key Operational Metrics

Bank-only (individual), three months ended March 31, unless noted - per BRI's own filed "Calculation of Financial Ratios" statement. No transcript was filed alongside this quarter's financial statements.

• Capital Adequacy Ratio (CAR)^»: 20.71% (1Q26) vs FY2025's 21.06% ⚠️, and down from 21.55% (1Q25) ⚠️ - the multi-quarter capital erosion this series has tracked since early 2025 continued rather than reversed.
• Gross NPL^»: 3.31% (1Q26), up from FY2025's 3.29% and up from 3.15% (1Q25) ⚠️.
• Net NPL: 1.01% (1Q26) vs 0.96% (FY25) and 0.89% (1Q25) ⚠️.
• Net Interest Margin (NIM)^»: 6.53% (1Q26), essentially flat vs both FY2025's 6.54% and 1Q25's 6.52% - the multi-quarter NIM compression this series has tracked since 2024 has stopped worsening, at least for now.
• Operating Expenses to Operating Income (BOPO^»): 71.30% (1Q26), an improvement from FY2025's 71.50% and from 73.66% (1Q25) ✅.
• Cost to Income Ratio (CIR^»): 37.91% (1Q26) vs 38.92% (FY25) and 38.68% (1Q25) ✅.
• Return on Asset (ROA^», pre-tax basis): 2.98% (1Q26) vs 2.95% (1Q25) ✅.
• Return on Equity (ROE^», average-equity basis): 15.47% (1Q26) vs 14.98% (1Q25) ✅.
• Loan to Deposit Ratio (LDR^»): 87.66% (1Q26) vs 86.58% (1Q25) ⚠️ - slightly tighter, loan growth continuing to outrun deposit growth at the margin.
• CASA Ratio^» (bank-only): 68.3% (1Q26), up from 66.0% (1Q25) ✅ - management attributes the improvement to retail CASA growth of 13.2% YoY, part of a deliberate shift in the funding mix toward cheaper deposits.

BRI Group's Own 2026 Guidance Scorecard

Consolidated basis, per BRI's own investor presentation

• Loan Growth: 13.74% actual vs. 7%-9% guidance ✅ Exceed - the mirror image of every prior 2025 quarter, which mostly missed on the low side; growth stayed concentrated the same way (see below).
• NIM: 7.87% actual vs. 7.4%-7.8% guidance ✅ Exceed.
• Credit Cost: 3.20% actual vs. 2.9%-3.2% guidance ✅ Inline - at the very top edge of the band, and see The Prescription above on the overlay behind this number.
• CIR: 40.75% actual vs. 41%-43% guidance ✅ Exceed.

Growth Still Concentrated Away From BRI's Core Franchise

BRI now reports loan performance across five segments - Micro, Consumer, SME, Commercial, and Corporate - and Q1 2026 continues the pattern FY2025's post first flagged in detail: the segments driving the consolidated loan-growth beat are not the segments BRI's franchise is actually built around.

• Micro (BRI's traditional core franchise): loan outstanding of Rp706.4 trillion, up just 5.3% YoY (Rp35.6 trillion added) - among the slowest of the five segments - while gross NPL rose to 4.15% from 3.31% a year earlier and 3.80% at FY2025, a second straight period of deterioration.
• Consumer: Rp231.5 trillion, up 8.3% YoY (Rp17.8 trillion added), with NPL up modestly to 2.41% from 2.02% - still one of the cleaner segments by credit quality.
• SME: Rp206.9 trillion, up just 3.2% YoY (Rp6.4 trillion added) - the slowest of all five segments - with NPL up to 5.55% from 5.13%, still the highest NPL of any segment, a longstanding pattern in this series.
• Commercial: Rp65.8 trillion, up 60.0% YoY (Rp24.7 trillion added) - the fastest-growing segment by a wide margin - while NPL rose to 3.92% from 2.49% a year earlier, though it actually eased from FY2025's 4.29%, a partial improvement worth watching next quarter.
• Corporate: Rp351.9 trillion, up 42.1% YoY (Rp104.3 trillion added) - the second-fastest segment - with NPL improving sharply to 1.33% from 2.36% a year earlier and from FY2025's 1.70%, continuing to prove that fast growth and improving credit quality aren't mutually exclusive in this segment.

Consolidated total loan and financing grew 13.74% YoY to Rp1,562.5 trillion, but as at FY2025, almost all of the incremental growth (Rp188.8 trillion added in total) came from Commercial and Corporate combined (Rp129.0 trillion, or roughly 68% of the total addition), while Micro and SME together added only Rp42.0 trillion. Management's own materials attribute part of Micro's deterioration to a specific cause: a single 2023 Kupedes loan cohort now contributes 29.6% of Micro's gross NPL downgrades, and BRI discloses that the monthly average net NPL downgrade rate in Micro eased from Rp1.9 trillion/month in Q4 2025 to Rp1.7 trillion/month in Q1 2026 - a sign of gradual stabilization, not a reversal, of the underlying stress (see Beyond the Usual below).

Beyond the Usual

This quarter's source documents are BRI's condensed OJK-format published financial report for the three months ended March 31, 2026 and BRI's own investor presentation - no transcript was filed. The findings below draw on the filed cash flow statement, commitments/contingencies statement, and management's own "Strengths and Challenges" disclosure in the investor presentation, since the condensed OJK financial report itself carries no discursive footnotes to mine.

A Single 2023 Loan Cohort Is Driving Nearly a Third of Micro's Bad-Debt Growth

BRI's own investor materials disclose that Kupedes loans originated in 2023 contribute 29.6% of Micro segment's gross NPL downgrades this quarter, even though Micro NPL as a whole rose to 4.15% (from 3.31% a year earlier). This is a genuinely useful disclosure - it identifies the deterioration as concentrated in a specific vintage rather than diffuse across the whole book - but it also means the headline Micro NPL number is being pulled up disproportionately by loans now three years old, not by fresh underwriting. Whether the 2023 cohort finishes working through the system before it does more damage to the ratio, or whether newer vintages start showing the same pattern, is the thing to watch in the next few quarters.

A Rp2.2 Trillion Credit-Cost Overlay Sits Inside a Guidance Band Reported as "Inline"

Management discloses a credit-cost overlay of approximately Rp2.2 trillion this quarter, reserved primarily for Kupedes-related exposures and loans affected by a natural disaster in Sumatra, contributing roughly 38 basis points to the reported 3.20% cost of credit. Because BRI's own guidance scorecard reports Credit Cost as "Inline" against its 2.9%-3.2% band, a reader relying on the scorecard alone would have no way to know that part of "Inline" performance is a one-off reserve for a specific vintage and a specific disaster, not a clean read on ongoing underwriting quality. Strip the overlay's roughly 38bps out and cost of credit would sit closer to 2.8% - still not certain to hold once the overlay is consumed, but a meaningfully different number to describe as the bank's steady-state credit cost.

CASA Growth Continued to Rebalance BRI's Funding Mix Toward Cheaper Deposits

BRI's bank-only CASA ratio rose to 68.3% in Q1 2026 from 66.0% a year earlier, driven by retail CASA growth of 13.2% YoY - management frames this explicitly as a deliberate shift toward cheaper, stickier retail deposits rather than a byproduct of any single quarter's seasonality. Time deposits still grew fastest in absolute terms this quarter (up 15.6% QoQ, per BRI's own bank-only balance sheet, largely a frontloading strategy ahead of Q1 seasonality), but the YoY CASA mix shift is the more durable trend worth tracking, since it bears directly on BRI's funding costs and NIM resilience.

Outstanding FX Derivative Sales Positions Grew Again, Now Nearly Rp197 Trillion

Outstanding sales positions on spot and derivative transactions (a commitment-payable line, not an on-balance-sheet liability) rose to Rp196,841,590 million at quarter-end, up 25.2% QoQ from FY2025's Rp157,153,569 million - continuing the growth Q4 2025's post flagged after a 65.7% jump over calendar 2025. The corresponding purchase-position line actually fell this quarter (Rp55,731,462 million, down from Rp57,618,468 million), widening the imbalance between the two sides further. The filed statement still doesn't disclose the underlying exposure being hedged, so the growing gap remains a pattern worth watching rather than something that can be assessed for size on its own.

Revenue From Gold Sold Roughly Tripled YoY for a Third Straight Period

The cash flow statement's "Revenue from gold sold" line came in at Rp33,091,824 million for Q1 2026, up 201.4% from Rp10,980,869 million a year earlier - continuing the surge Q3 2025's post and Q4 2025's post both flagged. The offsetting "Cost of revenue from gold sold" line grew at a similar pace (Rp10,566,243 million to Rp31,578,036 million), so the net cash contribution stays thin relative to the gross volume - this activity sits in BRI's gold-pawning subsidiary business, not the core lending franchise, and still isn't broken out or explained anywhere else in this document.

Guarantees Issued Grew Faster Than the Balance Sheet as a Whole

Contingent payables for guarantees issued rose to Rp73,182,500 million at quarter-end, up 9.4% from FY2025's Rp66,915,676 million - faster than the 5.36% QoQ growth in total assets over the same period. This is an off-balance-sheet contingent exposure, not a funded liability, and the filed statement doesn't break down the counterparties or sectors involved, but the pace of growth relative to the balance sheet is worth tracking given BRI's Corporate segment (where such guarantees typically originate) is also the segment growing fastest by loan volume this quarter.

Stock Price

BRI's shares closed Q1 2026 at Rp3,330, down 9.02% QoQ from FY2025's Rp3,660 close and down 17.78% YoY from Q1 2025's Rp4,050 close. Measured over the trailing two years (April 2024 through March 2026), the stock ranged from an August 2024 peak of Rp5,150 to this quarter's own close of Rp3,330 - a 35.3% peak-to-trough decline - and this quarter's Rp3,330 is itself the lowest closing level in the entire two-year window, undercutting even Q1 2025's own February 2025 trough of Rp3,360. A quarter that beat every guidance metric it reports against still closed at a fresh multi-year low - the disconnect between BRI's own operating scorecard and its share price is now wider than at any point this series has tracked, and it isn't explained by anything in this quarter's own results (see The Prescription above).

Target Valuation Range

~8.56x P/E, ~1.49x P/B. Bottom line: BRI looks cheaper on both trailing multiples than at any point in this series, purely because the share price fell to a fresh two-year low while trailing earnings and book value both kept growing - the valuation gap to BCA widened further on P/E even as it held roughly steady on P/B.

Trailing-twelve-month EPS of approximately Rp389 (FY2025's Rp376, plus Q1 2026's Rp103, minus Q1 2025's Rp90) against the Rp3,330 close gives a P/E^» of approximately 8.56x - down sharply from FY2025's ~9.73x, entirely a function of the share-price decline, since trailing EPS itself grew modestly this quarter.

Book value per share is approximately Rp2,231 (Rp338,203,528 million total equity attributable to owners ÷ 151,559,001,604 shares outstanding, unchanged since Q3 2021).

Market cap → book value	Q1 2026
Share price (period-end)	Rp3,330.00
Shares outstanding	151,559,001,604
Market capitalization	~Rp504,891B (~$29.71B, using ~Rp16,994.50/USD)
Total equity attributable to owners (book value)	Rp338,204B
P/B»	~1.49x

Peer-multiple sanity check	FY2025	Q1 2026	Change
P/E»	~9.73x	~8.56x	✅ down sharply - entirely a function of the share-price decline, trailing EPS grew modestly
P/B»	~1.71x	~1.49x	✅ down - price-driven move, the underlying book value continued growing this quarter

BBCA's own Q1 2026 post reported a trailing P/E of ~13.7x and a P/B of ~3.1x - a gap to BRI's ~8.56x and ~1.49x of roughly 1.6x on P/E and 2.1x on P/B, a narrower P/E gap than FY2025's ~1.8x as BCA's own multiple compressed faster than BRI's this quarter, but a similar gap on P/B.

A full DCF still isn't included here, for the same reasons every prior post in this series has given - the peer-multiple read above remains the more reliable lens until a longer run of genuinely clean, comparably-consolidated quarters builds up around this one.

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