A Frontloaded Provision Bill Arrives Just as the Guidance Year Starts
FY2023's post closed with all five of BRI's FY2023 guidance lines landing In Line or Beat for the first time in this series - a genuinely clean year. That discipline didn't carry into Q1 2024. Gross Credit Cost, consolidated, jumped to 3.83% from 2.39% a year earlier (and from FY2023's own 2.38% exit level) - already blowing through the freshly-set FY2024 initial guidance band of 2.2%-2.3%, and management's own materials respond not by explaining the miss but by widening the ceiling itself, to a looser "Max. 3%," in the same presentation that discloses the overshoot (see Beyond the Usual).
The headline growth numbers still point up, just far more slowly than FY2023's pace. Consolidated Net Interest and Net Premium Income, net, grew 9.91% YoY to Rp36,514,230 million, and Pre-Provision Operating Profit grew a healthy 22.2% YoY - but net income attributable to owners grew just 2.48% YoY to Rp15,885,516 million, because impairment for financial assets jumped 69.29% YoY to Rp12,007,013 million. Management's own strengths-and-challenges framing attributes the jump to a deliberate choice - "we frontloaded provision for micro and small" - rather than a surprise credit event, and recoveries of written-off assets also grew 48.2% YoY to Rp4,390,886 million, the same recovery-supported dynamic FY2023's post flagged as a source of net-vs-gross framing risk. A frontload is not the same thing as a deterioration, but a guidance band moving looser one quarter after being set - rather than the actual number moving inside it - is itself worth reading carefully.
The Prescription
BRI should publish the frontloading rationale with actual segment-level provisioning numbers attached, not just the qualitative phrase "frontloaded provision for micro and small." A reader has no way to verify whether this quarter's Rp12.0 trillion impairment charge is genuinely front-loaded (meaning later 2024 quarters should see it ease back toward the original 2.2%-2.3% band) or whether it's the first data point of a real deterioration that the guidance revision is quietly making room for. Naming the actual Rupiah amount attributable to the frontloading decision, and stating explicitly which quarters it's expected to benefit, would let the market judge the claim rather than take it on faith.
What BRI should stop doing: revising a guidance band wider in the same quarter it's missed, rather than either holding the original band and explaining the miss, or narrowing the band once the driver is fully understood. This quarter did both at once - Credit Cost went from a 2.2%-2.3% band to "Max. 3%" (effectively a much wider range with no floor), and NIM's own band loosened too (7.9%-8.0% to 7.6%-8.0%), even though actual Q1 NIM of 7.84% sat comfortably inside the original band. Two guidance bands loosening in the same quarter, one of which wasn't even missed, reads as pre-emptively lowering the bar rather than responding to what actually happened.
Key Financial Metrics
Three months ended March 31, 2024 vs. three months ended March 31, 2023 (consolidated), unless noted
FX: Rp15,855.00 = USD 1 as of March 31, 2024, per BRI's own filed financial statements' disclosure - a 2.98% Rupiah depreciation from Dec 2023's Rp15,397.00 and a 5.74% depreciation from Q1 2023's Rp14,994.50.
| Metric | Q1 2024 (IDR) | Q1 2024 (USD) | Q1 2023 (IDR) | YoY |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net Interest and Net Premium Income, net ("Net Revenue" equivalent) | Rp36,514,230M | ~$2,303M | Rp33,221,499M | ✅ +9.91% |
| Operating Income (Profit from Operations) | Rp20,036,239M | ~$1,264M | Rp19,556,371M | ✅ +2.45% |
| Net Income (attributable to owners) | Rp15,885,516M | ~$1,002M | Rp15,501,857M | ✅ +2.48% |
| Net Income (total consolidated, incl. non-controlling interests) | Rp15,982,588M | ~$1,008M | Rp15,563,915M | ✅ +2.69% |
| EPS (basic, attributable to owners, quarterly) | Rp105 | ~$0.0066 | Rp103 | ✅ +1.94% |
| Impairment for financial assets | Rp12,007,013M | ~$757M | Rp7,093,358M | ⚠️ +69.29% (higher is worse) |
Balance sheet: March 2024 vs. December 2023 (QoQ) and March 2023 (YoY), consolidated
| Balance sheet metric | Mar 2024 (IDR) | Mar 2024 (USD) | Dec 2023 (IDR) | QoQ | Mar 2023 (IDR) | YoY |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total Assets | Rp1,989,074B | ~$125,452M | Rp1,965,007B | ✅ +1.22% | Rp1,822,973B | ✅ +9.11% |
| Total Loan & Financing (gross, incl. subsidiaries) | Rp1,308,651B | ~$82,536M | Rp1,266,429B | ✅ +3.33% | Rp1,180,121B | ✅ +10.89% |
| Total Deposits (Third Party Funds) | Rp1,416,213B | ~$89,320M | Rp1,358,329B | ✅ +4.26% | Rp1,255,453B | ✅ +12.80% |
| Total Equity (incl. non-controlling interest) | Rp298,898B | ~$18,853M | Rp316,472B | ⚠️ -5.55% | Rp284,451B | ✅ +5.09% |
| Total Cash and Cash Equivalents (per cash flow statement, period-end) | Rp187,994B | ~$11,858M | Rp218,678B | ⚠️ -14.03% | Rp196,088B | ⚠️ -4.13% |
Total Equity's QoQ decline is driven by a Rp48,102,283 million FY2023 dividend distribution paid out during Q1 2024 (up from Rp43,494,766 million a year earlier, per the cash flow statement), the same seasonal Q1 dynamic [Q1 2023's post](/analysis/bbri/2023-03/#key-financial-metrics) and every other Q1 in this series has recorded - not a stress event.
Key Operational Metrics
Bank-only, per BRI's own filed financial-ratio table and investor presentation, unless stated
- CASA»: 61.86% (Mar 2024) vs Dec 2023's 64.55% ⚠️ and 64.79% (Mar 2023) ⚠️ - down on both counts. Management attributes the drop to BRI frontloading deposits ahead of the FY2023 dividend payment and the Ramadan season, and notes CASA still held above its pre-covid ~60% floor.
- Loan-to-Deposit Ratio (LDR)»: 83.78% (Mar 2024) vs Dec 2023's 84.73% ✅ and 85.26% (Mar 2023) ✅ - down on both counts as deposit growth (see above) outpaced loan growth this quarter.
- Net Interest Margin (NIM), bank-only: 6.59% (Mar 2024) vs Dec 2023's 6.84% ⚠️ and 6.67% (Mar 2023) ⚠️ - down on both counts. On BRI's own consolidated guidance basis, NIM» held essentially flat at 7.84% (Mar 2023: 7.82%), comfortably inside both the original and the now-widened FY2024 band.
- ROA» (after tax, bank-only): 2.98% (Mar 2024) vs 3.12% (Dec 2023) ⚠️ and 3.27% (Mar 2023) ⚠️ - down on both counts.
- ROE» (book value, bank-only): 18.62% (Mar 2024) vs 18.25% (Dec 2023) ✅ and 18.97% (Mar 2023) ⚠️ - up QoQ, down YoY.
- CAR» (Total, bank-only): 21.87% (Mar 2024), down from Dec 2023's 25.23% ⚠️ and from Mar 2023's 23.01% ⚠️ - a sizeable QoQ drop, mainly reflecting risk-weighted-asset growth against the dividend-shrunk capital base above. Tier 1 CAR: 20.74% (Mar 2024) vs 24.28% (Dec 2023) and 21.94% (Mar 2023).
- NPL ratio - gross (bank-only): 3.27% (Mar 2024) vs Dec 2023's 3.12% ⚠️ and 3.02% (Mar 2023) ⚠️ - worse on both counts. NPL ratio - net: 1.00% (Mar 2024) vs 0.76% (Dec 2023) ⚠️ and 0.82% (Mar 2023) ⚠️ - also worse on both counts.
- NPL Coverage Ratio (consolidated, per this quarter's own presentation): 214.26% (Mar 2024) vs 229.09% (Dec 2023, as restated by this same presentation - see Beyond the Usual) ⚠️ and 282.49% (Mar 2023) ⚠️ - down sharply on both counts, continuing the multi-quarter decline from 2022's series-high even as the absolute level remains well above BRI's own stated pre-covid floor of roughly 150%.
- Loan at Risk (LAR)», consolidated (incl. Covid-19 restructuring): 12.74% of total loans (Mar 2024) vs Dec 2023's 12.54% ⚠️ - a modest QoQ uptick, ending the multi-year improving streak this series has tracked since 2020; a genuine Mar 2023 comparison isn't shown in this quarter's presentation. LAR Coverage: 51.99% (Mar 2024) vs 53.59% (Dec 2023) ⚠️.
- Credit Cost (bank-only): 3.82% (Q1 2024, quarterly) vs 2.38% (FY2023, full-year cumulative) and 2.44% (Q1 2023, quarterly) ⚠️ - see above for the guidance-band context.
- BOPO» (Opex/Opr. Income, bank-only): 67.73% (Mar 2024) vs 64.35% (FY2023) ⚠️ and 60.70% (Mar 2023) ⚠️ - worse on both counts.
- Cost to Income Ratio (CIR)», bank-only: 34.25% (Mar 2024) vs 37.74% (FY2023) ✅ and 37.37% (Mar 2023) ✅ - improved on both counts, comfortably inside BRI's FY2024 41%-42% consolidated band on the group basis too (37.43% consolidated).
- Cost of Fund (CoF), bank-only: 3.54% (Mar 2024) vs 2.91% (FY2023) ⚠️ and 2.56% (Mar 2023) ⚠️ - still climbing on both counts as the tight-liquidity environment management flags as a "Key Challenge" continued into 2024.
Business Lines: Loan Growth and Credit Quality
Consolidated, YoY, per BRI's own investor presentation - the same five-way Micro/Consumer/Small/Medium/Corporate scale used since [9M 2023](/analysis/bbri/2023-09/#business-lines-loan-growth-and-credit-quality)
Micro loans grew 10.5% YoY (+Rp59.2 trillion), essentially matching FY2023's 10.9%. Its NPL worsened further to 2.69% from FY2023's 2.47% and Q1 2023's 2.24% - management's own materials attribute this to the same "food inflation" and "weak government spending" pressures flagged at FY2023, still unresolved.
Consumer grew 11.6% YoY, a slight deceleration from FY2023's 13.4%. NPL worsened to 2.20% from FY2023's 1.97% and Q1 2023's 2.01% - the segment that improved sequentially at FY2023 has reversed back to worsening.
Small grew 5.4% YoY, essentially flat versus FY2023's 5.8%. NPL worsened to 5.44% from FY2023's 4.88% and Q1 2023's 4.45% - still BRI's single worst-performing core segment by NPL level, and the gap to every other segment widened further this quarter.
Medium grew 27.7% YoY (+Rp8.3 trillion), decelerating from FY2023's already-fast 30.5% but still the fastest-growing segment by a wide margin. NPL improved to 2.21% from FY2023's 2.56%, though it's up slightly from Q1 2023's 2.06% - better than year-end but not yet back to a year ago.
Corporate grew 15.1% YoY (+Rp28.8 trillion), accelerating from FY2023's 13.8%. NPL improved to 3.33% from FY2023's 3.86% and Q1 2023's 4.19% - the segment moving the most cleanly in the right direction on credit quality even as its own loan book grew second-fastest after Medium.
Segment Comparison
Consolidated total loan growth (loans plus Sharia financing and finance receivables) came in at 10.9% YoY, landing inside BRI's own 10%-12% FY2024 guidance band, unchanged from the initial range even as three of the other four guidance lines moved this quarter (see above). Medium remained the standout percentage grower (27.7%) while Corporate was the standout credit-quality improver, the only segment whose NPL fell both QoQ and YoY at once. Micro, Consumer, and Small all saw NPL worsen YoY - the three segments management's own commentary ties most directly to the ongoing inflation and weak-government-spending pressures first named at FY2023 - with Small remaining the single worst-performing segment by NPL level and the only one where the gap to its peers widened further this quarter.
Beyond the Usual
This quarter's source document is BRI's unaudited OJK-format published financial report for the period ended March 31, 2024 - a bare regulatory statement with no notes to the financial statements - alongside its Q1 2024 investor presentation. Neither document carries the kind of footnote detail (related-party notes, commitment schedules, segment income notes) that BRI's audited annual filings do, so this section is shorter than a quarter built around an annual report.
A Guidance Band Was Widened, Not Just Missed, One Quarter Into the Year
BRI's Q1 2024 presentation shows gross Credit Cost at 3.83% (consolidated) against a freshly-set FY2024 initial guidance band of 2.2%-2.3% - already outside the range in the guidance year's very first quarter. Rather than holding the band and reporting the miss, the same presentation revises the FY2024 ceiling to "Max. 3%," a materially looser target with no stated floor. NIM's guidance band loosened in the same presentation too (7.9%-8.0% to 7.6%-8.0%), even though actual Q1 NIM of 7.84% sat comfortably inside the original range and didn't need the wider floor to stay "in line." Management frames the Credit Cost jump as a deliberate frontload of micro/small provisioning rather than a surprise, and recoveries of written-off assets also grew 48.2% YoY in the same quarter - but two guidance bands loosening together, one of which wasn't even breached, is worth watching rather than taking as routine housekeeping.
This Quarter's Presentation Restated Dec 2023's Own NPL Coverage Ratio Without Explanation
[FY2023's post](/analysis/bbri/2023-12/#key-operational-metrics) recorded BRI's Dec 2023 bank-only NPL Coverage Ratio at 215.27%, taken directly from that quarter's own investor presentation. This quarter's presentation restates the same Dec 2023 period-end figure as 229.09% in its financial-ratio table - a roughly 14-percentage-point difference for the same metric, same period, disclosed by the company itself twice within one quarter of each other, with no note in either deck explaining the change. It's possible the two figures sit on a genuinely different basis (bank-only versus consolidated, or a methodology refinement), but neither presentation states that explicitly, leaving a reader unable to tell which number - if either - is the more accurate read of where coverage actually stood at year-end.
A Larger FY2023 Dividend Drove Both the Equity Dip and Most of the Cash Decline
This year's annual dividend payout (Rp48,102,283 million, per the cash flow statement) grew from FY2022's Rp43,494,766 million equivalent payout a year earlier, and it's what actually explains most of this quarter's -5.55% QoQ equity decline and -14.03% QoQ cash decline (see Key Financial Metrics) - not any operating weakness. This is the same seasonal Q1 dividend-distribution pattern every prior Q1 post in this series has recorded, just at a larger absolute Rupiah amount this year, consistent with FY2023's larger full-year profit base.
Stock Price: A Fresh Two-Year High, Then a Pullback Into Quarter-End
BRI's shares closed at Rp6,050.00 on March 28, 2024 (the last trading day of the quarter), up 5.68% QoQ from Dec 2023's Rp5,725.00 close and 27.91% YoY from Mar 2023's Rp4,730.00. Over the trailing two years (April 2022-March 2024), the stock ranged from a trough of Rp4,150.00 in June 2022 to a peak of Rp6,125.00 in February 2024 - a ~47.6% trough-to-peak gain, with this quarter's own close sitting just below that February high after a modest pullback. BRI hasn't split its stock since 2017, so every price referenced here is directly comparable to prior quarters' own figures with no adjustment needed. This is a large enough two-year move to warrant its own section: the climb extends the broader Indonesian-bank re-rating FY2023's post already flagged, with the new February high arriving before this quarter's own credit-cost guidance widening became public.
Target Valuation Range
~15.13x P/E, ~3.13x P/B. Bottom line: BRI looks fully priced relative to its own quarter, not obviously over- or undervalued - the share price kept climbing on last year's momentum even as this quarter's own earnings growth decelerated sharply and a key guidance band moved the wrong way, so the multiple expansion is running ahead of the fundamentals story this specific quarter told.
Trailing-twelve-month EPS of approximately Rp400 (FY2023's Rp398, plus Q1 2024's Rp105, minus Q1 2023's Rp103) against the Rp6,050.00 close gives a P/E» of approximately 15.13x - up from FY2023's ~14.39x, as the share price rose faster than trailing earnings this quarter.
Book value per share is approximately Rp1,933 (Rp292,996,905 million total equity attributable to owners ÷ 151,559,001,604 shares outstanding, unchanged since Q3 2021).
| Market cap → book value | Q1 2024 |
|---|---|
| Share price (period-end) | Rp6,050.00 |
| Shares outstanding | 151,559,001,604 |
| Market capitalization | ~Rp916,932B (~$57.82B, using this quarter's disclosed Rp15,855.00/USD rate) |
| Total equity attributable to owners (book value) | Rp292,997B |
| P/B» | ~3.13x |
| Peer-multiple sanity check | FY2023 | Q1 2024 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/E» | ~14.39x (full-year) | ~15.13x (trailing) | ⚠️ up - share price rose faster than trailing earnings this quarter |
| P/B» | ~2.79x | ~3.13x | ⚠️ up - roughly half the share-price gain, the rest book value per share falling on the dividend distribution (see Beyond the Usual) |
BBCA's own Q1 2024 post reported a trailing P/E of ~24.8x and a P/B of ~5.47x, using a comparable trailing-four-quarter methodology - a gap to BRI's ~15.13x and ~3.13x of roughly 9.7x on P/E and 2.3x on P/B, both gaps modestly wider than FY2023's ~9.41x and ~1.99x. The widening tracks a genuine divergence in growth rates this quarter: BCA's own EPS grew roughly 10.6% YoY in Q1 2024 versus BRI's 2.48% - a reversal of FY2023's near-convergence (17.45% vs 19.7%), and a reminder that a single quarter's growth-rate gap can widen the valuation spread again even after a full year of narrowing.
A full DCF still isn't included here, for the same reasons every prior post in this series has given - the peer-multiple read above remains the more reliable lens until a longer run of genuinely clean, comparably-consolidated quarters builds up around this one.
PT Bank Rakyat Indonesia (Persero) Tbk's unaudited OJK-format published financial report as of March 31, 2024 and for the three months then ended, and its Q1 2024 investor presentation.