BBRI Credit Costs Are Falling. Profit Still Isn't Recovering.

Two Trend Lines Moving in Opposite Directions

BRI's standalone Q3 2025 consolidated net income attributable to owners came in at Rp14,502,109 million (derived by subtracting the already-filed H1 2025 cumulative figures from this quarter's 9M 2025 filing), down 5.60% YoY from standalone Q3 2024's Rp15,362,900 million. That alone reads as a continuation of the same profit-decline story this series has tracked all year. It isn't the same story, though - the thing actually driving it has changed again.

Standalone impairment for financial assets, the line every prior 2025 quarter blamed at least partly for the profit decline, has now fallen for two straight quarters: Rp12,638,574 million in Q1, Rp10,860,570 million in Q2, and Rp10,089,409 million in Q3 - down 9.17% YoY from Q3 2024's Rp11,108,302 million. Credit costs are genuinely easing. Net revenue also grew a healthy 6.43% YoY to Rp38,700,588 million. By the two metrics that have carried the blame all year, this should have been a recovery quarter. Profit fell anyway, and operating income fell 7.29% YoY to Rp18,078,977 million - because bank-only Operating Expenses to Operating Income (BOPO), a cumulative measure, worsened to 71.89% from 67.85% a year earlier, a 404-basis-point deterioration that swamps both the revenue growth and the credit-cost improvement. Sequentially, profit did recover - up 15.07% QoQ from Q2's Rp12,603,456 million - so this isn't a business in freefall; it's a business whose non-credit cost base grew faster than everything working in its favor this quarter.

The Prescription

BRI should treat this quarter's BOPO deterioration (67.85%→71.89% cumulative) as the actual problem to solve, not the credit-cost line that's been the default target all year. With impairment for financial assets now falling for two consecutive quarters, the "credit costs are the drag" explanation this series has repeated since Q1 2025 no longer fits the data - something in the non-credit operating base is now growing faster than revenue, and management owes a specific explanation of what, given that neither this quarter's press release nor a presentation was made available alongside the filed financial statements to say so.

What BRI should stop doing: letting gross NPL (bank-only, cumulative) drift upward - 3.04% a year ago to 3.29% now - at the same time credit-cost provisioning is easing. Falling impairment expense against a rising NPL ratio is not necessarily wrong (coverage built in earlier quarters can absorb it for a while), but it's a combination that deserves active monitoring rather than being allowed to continue on its own for a third or fourth quarter, especially with net NPL also up (0.84%→1.04%) over the same period.

Key Financial Metrics

Standalone three months ended September 30, 2025 vs. standalone three months ended September 30, 2024 (both derived by subtracting the already-filed cumulative H1 figures from each year's 9M cumulative filed statement), consolidated

FX: approximately Rp16,665 = USD 1 as of September 30, 2025, per BRI's own filing footnote (the same rate used for the filing's foreign-currency commitment translations).

Metric	Q3 2025 (IDR)	Q3 2025 (USD)	Q3 2024 (IDR)	YoY
Net Interest, Net Premium Income and Net Insurance Services ("Net Revenue" equivalent)	Rp38,700,588M	~$2,322M	Rp36,363,870M	✅ +6.43%
Operating Income (Profit from Operations)	Rp18,078,977M	~$1,085M	Rp19,500,379M	⚠️ -7.29%
Net Income (attributable to owners)	Rp14,502,109M	~$870M	Rp15,362,900M	⚠️ -5.60%
Net Income (total consolidated, incl. non-controlling interests)	Rp14,699,089M	~$882M	Rp15,466,264M	⚠️ -4.96%
EPS (basic, attributable to owners, quarterly)	~Rp96	~$0.0058	Rp102	⚠️ -5.88%
Impairment for financial assets	Rp10,089,409M	~$605M	Rp11,108,302M	✅ -9.17% (lower is better)

Balance sheet: September 2025 vs. June 2025 (QoQ) and September 2024 (YoY), consolidated, as filed, total equity on an attributable-to-owners basis unless noted

Balance sheet metric	Sep 2025 (IDR)	Sep 2025 (USD)	Jun 2025 (IDR)	QoQ	Sep 2024 (IDR)	YoY
Total Assets	Rp2,123,447B	~$127,420M	Rp2,106,371B	✅ +0.81%	Rp1,961,916B	✅ +8.24%
Total Loan & Financing (gross, incl. subsidiaries)	Rp1,438,109B	~$86,295M	Rp1,416,619B	✅ +1.52%	Rp1,336,780B	✅ +7.58%
Total Deposits (Third Party Funds)	Rp1,474,783B	~$88,496M	Rp1,482,120B	⚠️ -0.49%	Rp1,362,419B	✅ +8.25%
Total Equity (attributable to owners)	Rp331,191B	~$19,873M	Rp315,501B	✅ +4.97%	-	-
Total Equity (incl. non-controlling interest)	Rp337,898B	~$20,276M	-	-	Rp329,473B	✅ +2.56%
Total Cash and Cash Equivalents (per cash flow statement, period-end)	Rp192,333B	~$11,541M	Rp230,713B	⚠️ -16.64%	Rp199,876B	⚠️ -3.77%

Deposits dipped slightly QoQ even as loans kept growing, a modestly tighter Loan-to-Deposit position (see Key Operational Metrics). Cash fell sharply QoQ and YoY as loan disbursement (up Rp111.9tn in the cash flow statement's operating-asset changes) outpaced the deposit inflow (up Rp109.3tn combined) this quarter - a genuine net funding call on liquidity, not an accounting artifact.

Key Operational Metrics

Bank-only (individual), nine-month cumulative through September 30, unless noted - per BRI's own filed "Calculation of Financial Ratios" statement. No investor presentation or transcript was filed alongside this quarter's financial statements, so the product-line NPL breakdown and quarter-alone ratios that Q1/Q2 2025's posts sourced from BRI's own deck aren't available this quarter.

• Capital Adequacy Ratio (CAR): 23.01% (9M25 cumulative) vs Jun 2025's 22.7% ✅, but down from 24.96% (9M24) ⚠️ - a partial QoQ rebuild continuing, but still below where it stood a year ago.
• Gross NPL^»: 3.29% (9M25) vs 3.04% (9M24) ⚠️ - a 25-basis-point deterioration, continuing the segment-level cracks Q2 2025 flagged in Micro and Commercial, now visible at the consolidated bank-only level too.
• Net NPL: 1.04% (9M25) vs 0.84% (9M24) ⚠️ - worsened in step with gross NPL, suggesting the allowance cushion isn't expanding fast enough to fully absorb the deterioration.
• Net Interest Margin (NIM): 6.53% (9M25) vs 6.86% (9M24) ⚠️ - continuing the multi-quarter compression this series has tracked since 2024.
• Operating Expenses to Operating Income (BOPO^»): 71.89% (9M25) vs 67.85% (9M24) ⚠️ - the sharpest YoY deterioration in this ratio this series has recorded, and the single best explanation for why profit fell despite improving credit costs and growing revenue.
• Cost to Income Ratio (CIR): 38.68% (9M25) vs 37.16% (9M24) ⚠️ - worsened in the same direction as BOPO, on a smaller scale.
• Return on Asset (ROA, pre-tax basis): 3.20% (9M25) vs 3.81% (9M24) ⚠️.
• Return on Equity (ROE, average-equity basis): 16.48% (9M25) vs 18.86% (9M24) ⚠️.
• Loan to Deposit Ratio (LDR^»): 87.05% (9M25) vs 89.60% (9M24) ✅ - looser, consistent with deposits growing modestly faster than loans over the trailing year even as this quarter's QoQ balance-sheet snapshot shows deposits dipping slightly.

Beyond the Usual

This quarter's only source document is BRI's condensed OJK-format published financial report for the nine months ended September 30, 2025 - no investor presentation, transcript, or full audited interim financial statements with discursive notes (the kind Q1/Q2 2025 drew segment and related-party detail from) were made available this quarter. The findings below come from the filed financial statements themselves (the cash flow statement and P&L), not footnotes, since none exist in this document.

Operating Cash Flow Swung From a Rp9.65 Trillion Drain to a Rp100.7 Trillion Inflow

BRI's consolidated net cash provided by operating activities was Rp100,689,424 million for the nine months ended September 30, 2025 - a reversal from Rp9,654,345 million used in the same period a year earlier. The swing is driven almost entirely by deposit growth: demand, savings and time deposits combined contributed a Rp109,333,260 million net inflow this period, against a much smaller combined contribution (and a large loan-disbursement outflow that wasn't offset) in 9M 2024. Loan disbursement itself was actually a larger cash use this year (Rp111,865,728 million vs Rp114,519,217 million, roughly flat) - the entire swing sits on the funding side, not the lending side.

Revenue From Gold Sold More Than Tripled

The cash flow statement's "Revenue from gold sold" line came in at Rp41,306,783 million for 9M 2025, up from Rp11,580,379 million in 9M 2024 - a 257% increase. The offsetting "Cost of revenue from gold sold" line grew a similar 260% (Rp11,123,202 million to Rp40,050,672 million), so the net contribution to cash flow is modest even though the gross volume more than tripled. This activity almost certainly reflects BRI's gold-pawning subsidiary business rather than the core lending franchise, and it isn't broken out or explained anywhere else in this document.

Bank-only Total CAR (23.01%) improved for a second straight quarter from Q1's 21.55% low, but remains below the 24%+ levels this series recorded through most of 2022-2023, and the improvement is happening at the same time gross NPL keeps drifting up - two trends that would normally be expected to move together (more capital cushion typically accompanies, not offsets, rising problem loans) but are diverging here.

Stock Price

BRI's shares closed Q3 2025 at Rp3,900, up 4.28% QoQ from Q2 2025's Rp3,740 close but still down 21.21% YoY from Q3 2024's Rp4,950. Measured over the trailing two years (October 2023 through September 2025), the stock ranged from a February 2024 peak of Rp6,125 to a February 2025 trough of Rp3,360 - a 45.1% peak-to-trough decline, the same extremes every 2025 post in this series has already measured from this same window. This quarter's close is the first sequential gain since Q1 2025, a modest partial recovery rather than a reversal of the broader multi-quarter de-rating still visible in the two-year range.

Target Valuation Range

~10.58x P/E, ~1.78x P/B. Bottom line: BRI looks modestly more expensive on trailing P/E than a quarter ago, purely on the share price's QoQ recovery outpacing earnings growth, while book-value multiples held flat - and it remains at a narrower-than-usual discount to BCA this quarter as BCA's own multiples compressed sharply. This quarter's mixed operating picture (falling credit costs, worsening BOPO and NPL) doesn't clearly argue the stock is cheap or expensive on its own.

Trailing-twelve-month EPS of approximately Rp369 (standalone Q4 2024's Rp100, Q1 2025's Rp91, Q2 2025's Rp83, and Q3 2025's ~Rp96, summing the underlying net-income figures - Rp15,090,134M + Rp13,673,245M + Rp12,603,456M + Rp14,502,109M = Rp55,868,944M - divided by 151,559,001,604 shares) against the Rp3,900 close gives a P/E^» of approximately 10.58x - up from Q2 2025's ~9.95x, as the 4.28% QoQ price gain outpaced trailing-four-quarter EPS growth.

Book value per share is approximately Rp2,185 (Rp331,190,818 million total equity attributable to owners ÷ 151,559,001,604 shares outstanding, unchanged since Q3 2021).

Market cap → book value	Q3 2025
Share price (period-end)	Rp3,900.00
Shares outstanding	151,559,001,604
Market capitalization	~Rp591,080B (~$35.47B, using ~Rp16,665/USD)
Total equity attributable to owners (book value)	Rp331,191B
P/B»	~1.78x

Peer-multiple sanity check	Q2 2025	Q3 2025	Change
P/E»	~9.95x	~10.58x	⚠️ up - 4.28% QoQ price gain outpaced trailing-four-quarter EPS growth
P/B»	~1.80x	~1.78x	- essentially flat, book value per share grew roughly in step with the share price

BBCA's own Q3 2025 post reported a trailing P/E of ~16.5x and a P/B of ~3.40x - a gap to BRI's ~10.58x and ~1.78x of roughly 1.6x on P/E and 1.9x on P/B, narrower than Q2 2025's ~1.9x and ~2.3x as BCA's own multiples compressed sharply this quarter (BCA's share price fell 26.2% YoY) while BRI's held closer to flat.

A full DCF still isn't included here, for the same reasons every prior post in this series has given - the peer-multiple read above remains the more reliable lens until a longer run of genuinely clean, comparably-consolidated quarters builds up around this one.

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