BBRI Profit Nearly Doubled - So Why Is It Still Missing Four of Its Own Five 2022 Targets?

Profit Compounds While the Bank's Own Scorecard Doesn't

H1 2022's post closed with one guidance line resolved (bank-only Total CAR turning higher rather than continuing to fall) and one still open: whether NIM and NPL, the two FY2022 targets already missed in Q1, would recover or deepen. Nine months in, BRI's own investor presentation actually cleans up the specific complaint the H1 post raised - the guidance table is no longer split across a bank-only ratio page and a separately-worded consolidated target; it now states all five FY2022 lines on one consolidated basis, actual against target, in a single table. That's a genuine fix. What the now-clean table shows, though, is worse than one lingering NPL miss: of Loan Growth, NIM, Cost of Credit, Overhead Cost (OHC) Growth, and NPL, only OHC Growth (7.3% actual against a 6%-8% band) sits inside its range with one quarter of FY2022 left. NIM overshot its band favorably (8.21% against 7.7%-7.9%); Loan Growth, Cost of Credit, and NPL all missed unfavorably.

None of that shows up in the headline number. Consolidated net income attributable to owners came to Rp39,156,233 million for the nine months ended September 30, 2022, up 103.34% YoY from 9M 2021's Rp19,256,250 million - an acceleration from H1's own 98.72%, itself already faster than Q1's 78.24%. Net Interest and Net Premium Income, net, grew a more moderate 16.29% to Rp97,337,698 million, and Operating Income (Profit from Operations) grew 71.60% to Rp48,874,063 million - the same pattern every quarter this year: profit growth outrunning revenue growth because impairment for financial assets kept falling, down 13.63% YoY to Rp24,626,916 million from Rp28,514,598 million.

The Prescription

BRI should stop carrying forward FY2022 guidance bands its own results have missed for three-plus consecutive quarters without either revising the band or explaining the miss in the same document. The NPL ceiling (2.8%-3%) has now been breached every quarter since this series started tracking FY2022 guidance, and Cost of Credit (2.7%-2.9%) and, this quarter for the first time, Loan Growth (9%-11%) joined it - yet the guidance table presents all three exactly as originally set, with no annotation that they've been running outside range all year. BRI already revises bands when a metric surprises favorably (see H1's finding on the old NIM band); the same discipline should apply when a metric keeps missing unfavorably instead of just letting the original number sit there unexplained.

What BRI should keep doing: unifying every guidance line onto one consolidated basis, the way it's now done here. That single change directly resolves the specific confusion H1's post flagged - a reader no longer has to reconcile a bank-only ratio table against a differently-worded consolidated target to figure out which NIM the guidance actually tracks. The bank fixed the presentation problem; it should now apply the same clarity to the substance of a guidance line it keeps missing.

Key Financial Metrics

Nine months ended September 30, 2022 vs. nine months ended September 30, 2021 (consolidated), unless noted

FX: Rp15,227.50 = USD 1 as of September 30, 2022, per BRI's own filed financial statements' disclosure - a 6.84% Rupiah depreciation from Dec 2021's Rp14,252.50 and a 2.22% depreciation from H1's Rp14,897.50.

Metric	9M 2022 (IDR)	9M 2022 (USD)	9M 2021 (IDR)	YoY
Net Interest and Net Premium Income, net ("Net Revenue" equivalent)	Rp97,337,698M	~$6,392M	Rp83,699,684M	✅ +16.29%
Operating Income (Profit from Operations)	Rp48,874,063M	~$3,210M	Rp28,482,370M	✅ +71.60%
Net Income (attributable to owners)	Rp39,156,233M	~$2,571M	Rp19,256,250M	✅ +103.34%
Net Income (total consolidated, incl. non-controlling interests)	Rp39,311,445M	~$2,582M	Rp19,070,031M	✅ +106.14% (see Beyond the Usual for why this comparative base differs from the attributable-to-owners one)
EPS (basic, attributable to owners, nine-month)	Rp259	~$0.017	Rp154	✅ +68.18%
Impairment for financial assets	Rp24,626,916M	~$1,617M	Rp28,514,598M	✅ -13.63% (lower is better)

Balance sheet metric	Sep 2022 (IDR)	Sep 2022 (USD)	Dec 2021 (IDR)	vs. Dec 2021
Total Assets	Rp1,684,604B	~$110,627M	Rp1,678,098B	✅ +0.39%
Loans (gross)	Rp1,054,723B	~$69,265M	Rp994,417B	✅ +6.06%
Total Deposits	Rp1,139,765B	~$74,845M	Rp1,138,743B	⚠️ +0.09% (essentially flat)
Total Equity (incl. non-controlling interest)	Rp300,336B	~$19,724M	Rp291,787B	✅ +2.93%
Total Cash and Cash Equivalents (per cash flow statement, period-end)	Rp161,150B	~$10,584M	Rp153,925B (start-of-year)	✅ +4.69%

Total Assets and Total Cash both returned to modest growth against year-end 2021 this quarter, reversing H1's small declines on both lines - the first quarter this year the balance sheet has grown rather than merely stabilized. Book value per share is discussed in [Target Valuation Range](#target-valuation-range) below.

Key Operational Metrics

Bank-only, per BRI's own investor presentation, unless stated

• CASA^»: 65.65% (Sep 2022) vs 63.30% (FY2021) ✅ and 60.05% (Sep 2021) ✅ - extending the climb this series has tracked since 2021.
• Loan-to-Deposit Ratio (LDR)^»: 88.92% (Sep 2022) vs H1's 88.95% - essentially flat QoQ after H1's jump, still well clear of management's old "±85%" FY2021 guidance level.
• Net Interest Margin (NIM)^», bank-only: 7.23% (Sep 2022) vs 6.89% (FY2021) ✅ and 6.86% (Sep 2021) ✅ - a small QoQ dip from H1's 7.35% but still improved YoY. On a consolidated basis (the basis BRI's guidance table actually uses, see Beyond the Usual), NIM is 8.21%, clear of the 7.7%-7.9% FY2022 band.
• ROA^» (after tax, bank-only): 3.21% (Sep 2022) vs 2.23% (FY2021) ✅ and 1.94% (Sep 2021) ✅ - improved sharply on both counts.
• ROE^» (book value, bank-only): 17.58% (Sep 2022) vs 14.09% (FY2021) ✅ and 13.24% (Sep 2021) ✅ - also improved sharply.
• CAR^» (Total, bank-only): 24.00% (Sep 2022) vs H1's 22.97% ✅, continuing the turn H1 first found, though still below FY2021's series-high 25.28% ⚠️ and marginally below 24.37% (Sep 2021) ⚠️. Tier 1 CAR: 23.00% (Sep 2022) vs 21.97% (H1 2022) and 24.27% (FY2021).
• NPL ratio - gross (bank-only): 3.14% (Sep 2022) vs H1's 3.32% ✅ and 3.29% (Sep 2021) ✅ - the first quarter this series has recorded both a YoY and QoQ improvement since the guidance-miss streak began, though still above BRI's own 2.8%-3% FY2022 NPL ceiling; see Beyond the Usual. NPL ratio - net: 0.87% (Sep 2022) vs 0.86% (FY2021) and 0.86% (Sep 2021) - essentially flat.
• NPL Coverage Ratio (bank-only): 275.88% (Sep 2022) vs 265.15% (H1) ⚠️ and 259.70% (Sep 2021) ⚠️ - climbing again after H1's dip from the FY2021 series-high.
• Loan at Risk (LAR)^» (bank-only, incl. Covid-19 restructuring): 19.28% of total loans (Sep 2022) vs 20.78% (H1) and 25.62% (Sep 2021) ✅ - continuing the steady improvement tracked since 2021. LAR Coverage: 44.90% (Sep 2022) vs 42.39% (H1) and 33.35% (Sep 2021) ✅.
• Credit Cost (bank-only): 2.88% (9M 2022, cumulative) vs 3.42% (FY2021) ✅ and 3.79% (9M 2021) ✅ - improving, and, on this bank-only basis, actually inside BRI's 2.7%-2.9% FY2022 Cost-of-Credit band. The consolidated Cost of Credit BRI's own guidance table tracks came in at 3.02%, outside the band - see Beyond the Usual.
• BOPO^» (Opex/Opr. Income, bank-only): 62.59% (9M 2022) vs 74.30% (FY2021) ✅ and 76.37% (9M 2021) ✅ - improved sharply, consistent with Overhead Cost Growth landing at 7.3% YoY, comfortably within BRI's unchanged 6%-8% FY2022 guidance band - the one line on the guidance scorecard that's actually on track (see Beyond the Usual).

Business Lines: Loan Growth and Credit Quality

Bank-only, per BRI's own investor presentation. Segment NPL this quarter comes from a different section of the deck than prior posts used - see [Beyond the Usual](#beyond-the-usual) for why, and why only this quarter's own 9M'21-vs-9M'22 comparison should be read as apples-to-apples.

Micro loans grew 13.9% YoY (+Rp52.9 trillion), again the fastest-growing large segment, though a step down from H1's 16.0%. Its NPL, on this quarter's segment basis, rose to 2.12% from 1.62% a year earlier - continuing the rapid-growth-driven credit-quality trade-off flagged every quarter since 2021.

Consumer grew 6.3% YoY (+Rp9.3 trillion), similar to H1's pace; NPL edged up to 1.98% from 1.87% a year earlier.

Small grew 6.6% YoY (+Rp13.3 trillion); NPL rose to 4.81% from 4.27% a year earlier, the segment's worst YoY move this quarter.

Medium contracted 1.1% YoY (-Rp0.2 trillion) - still the only segment shrinking rather than growing, continuing the pattern H1's post found - but its NPL improved to 2.53% from 3.40% a year earlier, extending the "smaller but cleaner" trade-off into a second quarter.

Corporate grew a modest 0.5% YoY (+Rp0.8 trillion), its slowest pace since the SoE/Non-SoE merger; NPL improved sharply to 4.64% from 6.82% a year earlier - on this quarter's own comparison basis, the largest YoY NPL improvement of any segment.

Segment Comparison

Total bank-only loan growth held at 8.2% YoY (+Rp76.1 trillion), a step down from H1's pace but still solidly positive. Micro remains both the fastest grower and the fastest credit-quality decliner - a trade-off this series has tracked without a break since 2021. Medium and Corporate are the two segments moving the "right" direction on quality this quarter even as their loan books barely move (Medium shrinking, Corporate nearly flat) - the same "smaller/slower but cleaner" pattern H1 found in Medium alone now extends to Corporate too. Consumer and Small, by contrast, both grew loans and saw NPL tick up together this quarter - the opposite combination, and worth watching next quarter given H1 had flagged Consumer's NPL as improving. Because this quarter's segment NPL series isn't computed the same way as H1's (see Beyond the Usual), that reversal should be read cautiously - it may reflect the methodology change rather than a genuine deterioration in Consumer's book.

Beyond the Usual

This quarter's source document is again BRI's OJK-mandated statutory "Published Financial Report" format - a condensed, full-line-item balance sheet and income statement that, like H1's filing, carries no discursive notes on litigation, related-party dealings, or subsequent events; its own closing note states it is "not a complete presentation of the consolidated financial statements." What follows is drawn from what this filing, its footnoted commitments statement, and the accompanying investor presentation actually disclose.

BRI's Guidance Table Is Now on One Basis, But Four of Five Lines Still Miss

BRI's 9M 2022 investor presentation states all five FY2022 guidance lines on a single consolidated basis for the first time this series has seen - a genuine fix to the split-basis confusion [H1's post flagged](/analysis/bbri/2022-06/#one-of-q1s-two-guidance-misses-reversed-the-other-deepened). But the now-comparable table shows: Loan Growth at **7.9%** against a 9%-11% band (miss); NIM at **8.21%** against 7.7%-7.9% (overshoot, favorable); Cost of Credit at **3.02%** against 2.7%-2.9% (miss); Overhead Cost Growth at **7.3%** against 6%-8% (on track); and NPL at **3.09%** against 2.8%-3% (miss, and now the third-plus consecutive quarter this specific line has missed since Q1). With one quarter of FY2022 left, only OHC Growth sits cleanly inside its own band.

This Quarter's Segment NPL Isn't Comparable to Last Quarter's

BRI's 9M 2022 presentation dropped the segment-level NPL figures from its "Business Updates" section that generated last quarter's Micro/Consumer/Small/Medium/Corporate readings (5.06%/2.92%/5.79%/2.78%/7.37% at H1); that section now shows loan-outstanding growth only. Segment NPL instead appears in a different section, "Loan Quality," whose own Total row (3.14%) does reconcile exactly to the headline bank-only NPL ratio - so this quarter's segment figures are internally consistent with each other and with the headline number, but they sit on a materially different scale than last quarter's figures (Micro 2.12% here vs. H1's 5.06%, for example) and can't be read as a continuation of the same series. The Business Lines and Segment Comparison sections above compare only this quarter's own 9M 2021-vs-9M 2022 columns for that reason.

The 9M 2021 Comparative Carries a Pro Forma Adjustment the H1 Comparative Didn't

BRI completed its acquisition of Pegadaian and PNM (99.99% and 99.99% of paid-up capital respectively) on September 13, 2021, and restates its FY2022 comparatives as if the combination had occurred January 1, 2021, in accordance with PSAK 38 pooling-of-interests accounting. Because the acquisition closed during the nine-month 2021 period rather than before it, the filed 9M 2021 comparative includes a specific "net loss from pro forma net loss arising from acquisition transaction with an entity under common control" line of Rp2,400,691 million, which the H1 2021 comparative (fully after the closing) didn't carry. That's why total consolidated profit incl. non-controlling interests (Rp19,070,031 million) and the profit-attributable-to-owners split (Rp19,256,250 million minus a small negative non-controlling-interest allocation) aren't simply additive with each other in the way a reader might expect - both are correct, they're just measuring slightly different things because of when in the comparative period the acquisition actually closed.

Off-Balance-Sheet Commitments Moved in Different Directions Than H1

Outstanding irrevocable letters of credit (bank-only) fell back to Rp10,871,425 million (September 2022) from H1's Rp14,778,925 million - a 26.4% quarterly retreat that gives back more than half of H1's 52.5% jump, though it's still up 12.3% from December 2021's Rp9,685,749 million. Guarantees issued, meanwhile, kept declining for a third straight comparison point: Rp51,846,115 million (December 2021) to Rp43,909,105 million (H1) to Rp38,183,396 million now, a cumulative 26.4% decline over nine months. Neither figure appears in the headline financial-highlights tables - both are footnote-level detail from the statutory commitments-and-contingencies statement, and the continued guarantees decline alongside the LC reversal suggests an actively-managed shift in trade-finance mix rather than a simple one-directional change in off-balance-sheet exposure.

Stock Price

BRI's stock closed at approximately Rp4,490.00 on September 30, 2022, up 8.19% from H1's Rp4,150.00 close - recovering part of H1's 10.9% quarterly decline, though still 7.8% below the trailing two-year peak. Over the trailing two years (October 2020-September 2022), the stock still shows a wide range: a trough near Rp3,054.49 in October 2020, during Indonesia's Covid-19 downturn, and a peak of Rp4,870.00 in April 2022 - a ~59.5% trough-to-peak gain, with this quarter's close sitting roughly 47.0% above that trough. As in prior quarters, BRI hasn't split its stock since 2017, so every price referenced here is directly comparable to prior quarters' own figures with no adjustment needed.

Target Valuation Range

~13.00x P/E, ~2.29x P/B. Bottom line: BRI's own numbers kept improving faster than BCA's again this quarter, yet the valuation gap between the two widened rather than narrowed - the market re-rated BCA's multiple more than BRI's despite BRI growing profit over four times as fast, which looks harder to justify on fundamentals than H1's narrower gap did.

Annualizing 9M 2022's basic EPS of Rp259 (×4/3 = Rp345.33) against the Rp4,490.00 close gives a P/E^» of approximately 13.00x - up from H1's ~12.65x, as the share-price recovery slightly outran the annualized-earnings gain.

Book value per share is approximately Rp1,957 (Rp296,577,553 million total equity attributable to owners ÷ 151,559,001,604 shares outstanding, unchanged since Q3 2021).

Market cap → book value	Q3 2022
Share price (period-end)	Rp4,490.00
Shares outstanding	151,559,001,604
Market capitalization	~Rp680,500B (~$44.69B, using this quarter's disclosed Rp15,227.50/USD rate)
Total equity attributable to owners (book value)	Rp296,578B
P/B»	~2.29x

Peer-multiple sanity check	Q2 2022	Q3 2022	Change
P/E»	~12.65x	~13.00x	⚠️ up - share-price recovery slightly outran the annualized-earnings gain
P/B»	~2.23x	~2.29x	⚠️ up - tracking the share-price recovery

BBCA's own Q3 2022 post reported an annualized P/E of ~24.2x and a P/B of ~4.97x, using the same methodology - a gap of roughly 11.2x on P/E and 2.68x on P/B versus BRI's ~13.00x and ~2.29x. That's a wider gap on both multiples than H1's ~9.75x P/E and ~2.17x P/B gap, even though BRI's net income attributable to owners grew 103.34% YoY this nine-month period versus BCA's own 24.8% - a growth-rate gap of more than four times in BRI's favor that, if anything, should compress the valuation gap rather than widen it. The likely explanation is that BCA's share price simply re-rated further than BRI's this quarter (BCA's own Q3 post noted a share-price move outrunning book-value growth), rather than anything in BRI's fundamentals deteriorating - but a widening gap against a faster-growing bank is exactly the kind of thing this series should keep tracking rather than assume away.

A full DCF still isn't included here, for the same reasons every prior post in this series has given - the peer-multiple read above remains the more reliable lens until a longer run of genuinely clean, comparably-consolidated quarters builds up around this one.

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