A Smaller Beat, and Guidance That Steps Down
Over these 3 quarters: share price $21.34 to $15.70 (-26%); operating income 19.1 to 33.2 ¥ billion; operating income margin 18.7% to 28.1%. One graph in actual numbers: bars are the quarter's operating income, over them the share price at quarter-end (left axis) and the operating income margin (right axis); each line is fitted to its own range, so read the timing, not the heights. Prices are adjusted for splits.
PayPay beat its own guidance again, but by less than last quarter, and the full-year range it raised implies that the last quarter of the year earns a lower margin than this one.
PayPay's second quarter, July to September 2026, beat the company's guidance on both lines. Total Revenue grew 27.7% year-on-year to ¥118.1 billion, 1.8% above the top of the ¥114-116 billion guided range. Adjusted EBITDA, the company's own non-IFRS profit measure (profit with income tax, depreciation and amortization, share-based pay, listing and M&A costs, net interest on corporate borrowings and other items added back), grew 54.8% to ¥42.1 billion, 6.5% above the top of its ¥37.5-39.5 billion range. Operating profit rose 61.9% to ¥33.2 billion. Profit for the period fell 74.8% to ¥18.4 billion, but only because the year-earlier quarter included a one-time ¥57.5 billion deferred-tax benefit; the company says profit rose without it. Management raised guidance for the year ending March 2027 to Total Revenue of ¥474-478 billion (from ¥465-473 billion) and Adjusted EBITDA of ¥159-163 billion (from ¥149-155 billion).
Fiscal years: PayPay names a year by the calendar year it starts in, so July to September 2026 is its "Q2 FY2026", the year ended March 2026 is its "FY2025" and the year ending March 2027 is its "FY2026". This post uses "Q2 FY2026" for the quarter in the prose and tables, names full years by the month they end, and labels the charts with the calendar quarter ("Q3 2026").
The beat got smaller
In the first quarter, payp/2026-06 showed revenue 4.6% and Adjusted EBITDA 15.1% above the top of their ranges. This quarter the figures are 1.8% and 6.5%: ¥2.6 billion of Adjusted EBITDA above the ¥39.5 billion top of the range, against ¥4.9 billion in the first quarter. Two beats is a pattern, but the second was about half the size of the first, and management had already guided a slower quarter: the July range implied revenue growth of about 24%, and the result was 27.7%. The Adjusted EBITDA margin came in at 36% (35.6%), against the 34% management had pointed to for the quarter.
What the raised range implies for the second half
The new full-year range can be turned into what is left for the second half by subtracting the six months already reported (revenue ¥227.9 billion, Adjusted EBITDA ¥79.5 billion). The company also guided the quarter ending December 2026: revenue of ¥121-123 billion and Adjusted EBITDA of ¥41.5-43.5 billion. The table is arithmetic on those ranges, not company guidance for the second half or for the March quarter, which PayPay has not given separately.
| Implied by the guidance | Revenue | Adjusted EBITDA | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| First half (reported, Apr-Sep 2026) | ¥227.9B | ¥79.5B | 34.9% |
| Second half (full-year range less first half) | ¥246.1-250.1B | ¥79.5-83.5B | about 32.9% at the midpoints |
| Quarter to Dec 2026 (company guidance) | ¥121-123B | ¥41.5-43.5B | about 34.8% at the midpoints |
| Quarter to Mar 2027 (second half less December guide) | ¥123-129B | ¥36-42B | about 31.0% at the midpoints |
| Quarter just reported (Jul-Sep 2026) | ¥118.1B | ¥42.1B | 35.6% |
At the midpoints the last quarter of the year is ¥39 billion of Adjusted EBITDA on ¥126 billion of revenue, below the ¥42.1 billion just reported on ¥118.1 billion. The ranges are wide enough that the low end of the March quarter (¥36 billion) and the high end (¥42 billion) are both consistent with the guidance. The release does not explain the step down. There are two readings that the documents cannot separate. One is caution: PayPay has beaten the top of its range in each of the two quarters since it first gave guidance on May 7, and the raise since then (about ¥23.5 billion at the midpoint of Adjusted EBITDA, from ¥137.5 billion to ¥161 billion) is about 2.5 times the ¥9.5 billion by which the two quarters beat the middle of their ranges, so some of the raise already covers future quarters. The other is that costs rise: interest expense doubled this quarter and provisions grew more than twice as fast as revenue (see Beyond the Usual).
Net profit came in below the first quarter on a higher operating profit
Operating profit rose 11.1% from the first quarter (¥29.9 billion to ¥33.2 billion), yet profit for the period fell 6.6%, from ¥19.7 billion to ¥18.4 billion. Two lines below operating profit explain it: the share of loss of equity-method investments rose from about ¥0.06 billion in the first quarter to ¥4.6 billion, and the effective tax rate rose from 33.7% to 35.4%. The release does not name the investee behind the loss; its Adjusted EBITDA reconciliation says the line "includes share of loss of a joint venture accounted for using the equity method."
The Prescription
PayPay should publish, every quarter, the bridge from its guidance to its result and the credit-quality measures that explain its provisions. The company has beaten the top of its range twice, by ¥4.9 billion and ¥2.6 billion of Adjusted EBITDA, and has raised its full-year range, yet the release gives no reason for a second-half margin about two points below the first half's. A reader cannot tell caution from cost pressure. On operating strategy, the lending books are where growth and risk now sit: PayPay Bank loans are up 37% year-on-year, credit card financing balances 26%, provisions 55% and borrowings 53% since March. The strategy those numbers support is to let the lending books grow only as fast as the company can fund and reserve for them, because the guidance already assumes a margin step down it has not explained. The one thing to stop is releasing results with no credit-quality measure: the earnings release contains no Stage 3 share, delinquency rate or charge-off rate (the earnings deck and call were not among the documents read), while provisions grew about twice as fast as revenue. Nothing in the documents read suggests wrongdoing; a company asking for a growth multiple has to make its quality of earnings easy to check.
Key Financial Metrics
¥ billion; margin is operating income as a percent of net revenue, per quarter.
Three months ended September 30, 2026 vs. September 30, 2025 ("Q2 FY2026" and "Q2 FY2025" in PayPay's own convention); yen figures converted to USD at the quarter-end rate (¥157.56/$ for Sep 2026) - no Sep 2025 USD figures are shown since PayPay was not yet a reporting public company at that time
| Metric | Q2 FY2026 (Sep 2026) | Q2 FY2025 (Sep 2025) | YoY |
|---|---|---|---|
| Total Revenue | ¥118.1B ($749.7M) | ¥92.5B | +27.7% |
| Payment segment revenue | ¥96.7B ($614.0M) | ¥76.3B | +26.8% |
| Financial Service segment revenue | ¥22.9B ($145.3M) | ¥16.6B | +37.7% |
| Operating profit | ¥33.2B ($210.5M) | ¥20.5B | +61.9% |
| Profit for the period (attributable to owners) | ¥17.3B ($109.9M) | ¥72.6B | -76.2% |
| Adjusted EBITDA | ¥42.1B ($267.0M) | ¥27.2B | +54.8% |
| Adjusted EBITDA margin | 36% | 29% | +6pp |
| Diluted EPS | ¥25.42 | ¥113.85 | -77.7% |
The release's headline profit of ¥18.4 billion (-75%) is profit including non-controlling interests; the table shows the part attributable to PayPay's owners. The year-earlier ¥73.2 billion total includes the one-time ¥57.5 billion deferred-tax benefit, which leaves about ¥15.7 billion; against that, this quarter's ¥18.4 billion is up about 17%.
| Balance sheet | Sep 30, 2026 | Jun 30, 2026 | QoQ |
|---|---|---|---|
| Total assets | ¥5,730.2B | ¥5,493.7B | +4.3% |
| Deposits | ¥3,215.4B | ¥3,112.3B | +3.3% |
| Loans and advances to customers | ¥2,737.4B | ¥2,631.3B | +4.0% |
| Cash and cash equivalents | ¥570.1B | ¥491.1B | +16.1% |
| Equity attributable to owners | ¥425.8B | ¥413.4B | +3.0% |
Borrowings were ¥861.7 billion at September 30, against ¥565.0 billion at March 31, 2026, up 52.5% in six months (the June figure is not in this release). Net cash from operating activities was ¥16.7 billion for the six months, against ¥127.6 billion a year earlier; the first quarter was -¥54.3 billion, so the second quarter alone was about +¥71.0 billion. The six-month statements show what moved: loans and advances to customers took ¥224.6 billion and securities ¥60.7 billion, and deposits (+¥262.9 billion) paid for most of it. Investing activities used ¥104.2 billion (securities purchases of ¥211.3 billion against proceeds of ¥122.0 billion), and financing brought in ¥294.6 billion, almost all of it net short-term borrowings of ¥304.6 billion. Cash rose ¥207.0 billion, of which ¥473.0 billion of the closing balance is deposits at the Bank of Japan. For a group that now includes a bank, operating cash flow mostly tracks balance sheet growth in loans, card receivables and securities, so it says little about earnings; it does show that the group leaned on borrowings to fund that growth.
Two lines moved against the company this quarter. Total Transaction Cost (settlement costs, provision for loss allowance and interest expense) was 24% of revenue against 22% a year earlier; the release puts the increase down to higher costs in a rising interest rate environment and to credit costs from growth in credit card financing balances. And the effective tax rate and the equity-method loss held profit below the first quarter's, as set out above.
Where Q3 2026's Revenue Went
Net revenue, and how much of it was left as operating profit and net income, in one view. Figures are the same standalone-quarter figures as the metrics table.
¥ billion, Q3 2026. Operating costs are net revenue less operating income; other items & tax are operating income less net income.
Two Engines: Payment vs. Financial Service
Payment
¥ billion; margin is segment profit as a percent of segment total revenue, per quarter. Revenue is the segment total revenue (segment note, incl. inter-segment); profit is the segment profit (equals operating profit). Shows the 8 quarters the segment's definition and disclosures allow.
The Payment segment grew revenue 26.8% year-on-year to ¥96.7 billion and segment profit 55.4% to ¥26.5 billion, a margin of 27.4% against 22.3%. Payment Segment GMV» grew 20% to ¥5.56 trillion, so revenue outgrew volume: Take Rate» rose from 1.64% to 1.74%. The release credits three things for that: a larger share of online payments (19% of combined PayPay Balance and PayPay Credit GMV, up 3 points), more interest income from growing credit card financing balances (up 26% year-on-year), and lower point expenses deducted from Total Revenue after the June 2026 review of point reward programs. Online GMV grew 40%; PayPay Credit GMV grew 25% and PayPay Card GMV 28%, against 15% for PayPay Balance GMV (¥3.07 trillion from ¥2.68 trillion). The release names two headwinds: a high prior-year comparison, when demand for the "Hometown Tax Donation" program (a Japanese tax incentive for donations to local municipalities) rose ahead of rule changes in September 2025, and prolonged rain, particularly in September 2026, that weighed on offline payments. Settlement-related costs grew 13% on a consolidated basis against 20% for Total GMV, which the release links to an improved funding source mix after the "Changes to Other Credit Card Usage on PayPay" in July 2026. The cost that grew fastest is credit: the segment's provision for loss allowance rose from ¥5.9 billion to ¥9.2 billion, +54.8%, and is 98% of the group's provisions.
Financial Service
¥ billion; margin is segment profit as a percent of segment total revenue, per quarter. Revenue is the segment total revenue (segment note, incl. inter-segment); profit is the segment profit (equals operating profit). Shows the 8 quarters the segment's definition and disclosures allow.
The Financial Service segment's revenue grew 37.7% year-on-year to ¥22.9 billion and its profit 95.2%, from ¥3.5 billion to ¥6.8 billion. Interest income grew 69.6% to ¥12.6 billion on a loan book up 37% (to ¥1.4 trillion), funded by deposits up 16% (to ¥2.4 trillion; loan-to-deposit ratio 57%); the release attributes the rise to growth in loans and investments and to higher rates after policy rate hikes. Funding cost rose faster: the segment's interest expense went from ¥1.6 billion to ¥4.1 billion. Gains on financial instruments in the segment rose 19.0% to ¥2.1 billion. Against the first quarter the segment slipped: revenue rose 1.9% (from ¥22.5 billion), but profit fell 8.6% (from ¥7.4 billion) as gains on financial instruments fell from ¥3.3 billion to ¥2.1 billion; the release does not size how much of the profit change that explains. PayPay Bank reached 10.45 million deposit accounts and PayPay Securities 1.88 million accounts (+28% year-on-year).
Segment Comparison
| Payment | Financial Service | |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 FY2026 revenue | ¥96.7B | ¥22.9B |
| YoY revenue growth | +26.8% | +37.7% |
| Q2 FY2026 segment profit | ¥26.5B | ¥6.8B |
| YoY segment profit growth | +55.4% | +95.2% |
| Segment margin (profit/revenue) | 27.4% | 29.5% |
| Share of consolidated revenue | 81.9% | 19.4% (18.0% a year earlier) |
| Share of the two segments' combined profit | 79.7% | 20.3% (16.9% a year earlier) |
Consolidated revenue also includes eliminations of -¥1.5 billion (-1.3%) between the segments, and segment profit includes eliminations of -¥43 million, so the two segment profits (¥26,462 million and ¥6,753 million) less ¥43 million equal the consolidated operating profit of ¥33,172 million. Financial Service's margin (29.5%) still clears Payment's (27.4%), but by 2.1 points where payp/2026-06 showed 7.5 points in the first quarter (32.9% against 25.4%): Payment's margin rose 2 points while Financial Service's fell 3.4. Payment is again where most of the profit comes from, 79.7% of the two segments' combined profit against 75.3% in the first quarter.
Key Operational Metrics
- PayPay MTU»: 42.22 million, +9% year-on-year (3.32 million users); registered users 75.6 million, +6%; active rate 56%, up 1 point.
- Payment Segment GMV: ¥5.56 trillion, +20%; Total GMV ¥5.65 trillion, +20%.
- Monthly GMV per MTU: ¥43,746, +9% year-on-year.
- Number of transactions: 2,672 million, against 2,346 million (+13.9%).
- Take Rate: 1.74%, against 1.64%; Cost Rate 1.26%, against 1.28%.
- Online share of PayPay Balance and PayPay Credit GMV: 19%, up 3 points year-on-year.
- PayPay Bank: 10.45 million deposit accounts; deposits ¥2,433.0 billion (+16%) and loans ¥1,397.7 billion (+37%).
- PayPay Securities accounts: 1.88 million, +28% year-on-year.
Beyond the Usual
Credit reserves are growing four times as fast as the card book they cover
The provision for loss allowance rose from ¥6.1 billion to ¥9.4 billion (¥9,422 million against ¥6,073 million), up 55.1% against revenue growth of 27.7%, and from 6.6% to 8.0% of revenue; it was ¥8.3 billion (7.6% of revenue) in the first quarter, so it also rose 13.3% in one quarter. The balance sheet shows the same direction. The loss allowance on Payment-segment credit card receivables went from ¥45.3 billion at March 31 to ¥56.0 billion at September 30, up 23.5%, while the gross receivables went from ¥1,321.8 billion to ¥1,398.4 billion, up 5.8%. The allowance is now 4.0% of gross card receivables, from 3.4%. More reserve per yen of receivables can mean the company is being careful or that the book is getting riskier, and the earnings release has no measure that separates the two: no Stage 3 share, delinquency transition rate or charge-off rate, the credit measures payp/2026-06 discussed. The earnings deck and call, which may carry them, were not among the documents read.
Net profit fell below the first quarter on an equity-method loss and a higher tax rate
Operating profit rose 11.1% on the first quarter, to ¥33.2 billion, but profit before tax rose only to ¥28.6 billion from ¥29.8 billion in the first quarter, a fall of 4.2%, because the share of loss of equity-method investments went from about ¥0.06 billion (six-month loss ¥4.68 billion less this quarter's ¥4.62 billion) to ¥4.6 billion, the equivalent of 13.9% of operating profit. The carrying value of equity-method investments fell from ¥12.8 billion at March 31 to ¥8.2 billion at September 30, a drop of ¥4.6 billion that matches the loss. Income tax was ¥10.1 billion on ¥28.6 billion of profit before tax, 35.4%, against 33.7% in the first quarter. The release names a joint venture in its definition of the line but not the company, and does not say whether the loss recurs. Adjusted EBITDA adds the equity-method loss back, so it does not show in the ¥42.1 billion.
Borrowings rose 53% in six months while interest expense doubled
Borrowings were ¥861.7 billion at September 30 against ¥565.0 billion at March 31, up ¥296.7 billion or 52.5%: ¥513.1 billion and ¥64.0 billion of commercial paper in the Payment segment, and ¥284.6 billion in Financial Service. Interest expense within other operating expenses rose from ¥2.4 billion to ¥4.8 billion (+101.8%) in the quarter, and is 18% of other operating expenses. The cash flow statement shows net short-term borrowings of ¥304.6 billion in the six months, against ¥224.6 billion of loan growth, ¥60.7 billion of securities in operating activities and ¥211.3 billion of securities purchases in investing activities, the statements do not itemise the Seven & i purchase. Guarantee deposits under the Payment Services Act fell from ¥74.1 billion to ¥49.4 billion. The company has also agreed to buy T&D Financial Life Insurance for about ¥132 billion, with closing expected on October 1, 2027, per payp/2026-06; this release does not mention it. Together with the Seven & i shares, ¥232 billion of commitments is 54.5% of ¥425.8 billion of equity attributable to owners.
The Seven & i stake is already worth less than PayPay paid
The release's securities note says PayPay holds shares of Seven & i Holdings, acquired in August 2026, at fair value through other comprehensive income, with a fair value of ¥96.8 billion at September 30, 2026. The July 31 notice described in payp/2026-06 gave the price as ¥100 billion for 48,309,178 shares at ¥2,070 a share, so the stake stood about 3.2% below cost, around ¥2,004 a share. The six-month statements show a ¥3.3 billion loss on equity instruments at fair value through other comprehensive income, and the quarter's other comprehensive loss was ¥5.9 billion, which is why total comprehensive income for the quarter was ¥12.5 billion against profit of ¥18.4 billion. Because PayPay designated the holding irrevocably as measured through other comprehensive income, gains and losses on it do not pass through profit, including on sale; the note says it is held "to maintain or enhance a business relationship."
Adjusted EBITDA adds back only ¥2.9 billion, and half of it is a one-time license charge
The gap between operating profit plus depreciation and amortization (¥33.2 billion plus ¥6.2 billion, ¥39.4 billion) and Adjusted EBITDA (¥42.1 billion) is ¥2.7 billion, from add-backs of ¥2.9 billion less ¥0.2 billion of net interest income on corporate borrowings and treasury assets. The largest add-back, ¥1.5 billion, is a loss on disposal of property and equipment and intangible assets that the release's footnote says includes one-time expenses from the early termination of license agreements in connection with the transition to in-house system development. The others are M&A-related expenses (¥0.6 billion), amortization of contract cost (¥0.6 billion) and share-based pay (¥0.2 billion). The add-backs are 6.9% of Adjusted EBITDA, so the measure stays close to operating profit plus depreciation and amortization.
Settlement costs grew 13% against GMV growth of 20%
Settlement-related costs (the fees PayPay pays to move money for payments, ¥13.9 billion) rose 12.8% against Total GMV growth of 20%, so the cost per yen of payments fell: the Cost Rate went from 1.28% to 1.26%. The release links this to an improved funding source mix after the "Changes to Other Credit Card Usage on PayPay" in July 2026, which means the improvement comes from a decision the company made, not from volume.
Gains on financial instruments were small this quarter
Gains on financial instruments were ¥2.3 billion, 1.9% of revenue, up from ¥2.0 billion a year earlier. The Financial Service segment's gains fell from ¥3.3 billion in the first quarter to ¥2.1 billion in this one. This quarter's beat did not lean on that line.
Interest income is reported after paying guarantors
Interest income of ¥38.2 billion (+37.0%) is reported net of ¥5.9 billion of guarantee fees (against ¥5.4 billion a year earlier, +9.4%) that PayPay pays third-party financial institutions to reduce the credit risk of its loans and advances. Under IFRS 9 the fees are part of the effective interest rate, so they reduce interest income rather than appearing as an expense. Part of the credit risk on the loan book is therefore covered by guarantors, and the fees grew far more slowly than interest income.
Target Valuation Range
Neither cheap nor stretched on the company's own guidance. PayPay's market capitalization rose about 9.6% to $10.6 billion between June 30 and September 30, 2026, and the multiple on trailing revenue barely moved (4.6x), because revenue grew as fast as the price. The 12.3x forward Adjusted EBITDA is the number most exposed to the second-half margin step down.
Some plain-language framing for the tables below. Market capitalization is share price times shares outstanding. Enterprise value (EV) adds debt and subtracts cash, to price the whole business rather than just the shares. EV/Revenue and P/E (price divided by annual profit) say how many dollars the market pays for a dollar of revenue or profit. For a group that owns a bank these are rough: the cash below includes the bank's, and customer deposits (¥3.2 trillion) are not counted as debt. The simple measure used here is borrowings plus leases minus all cash; the release does not give the company's own net debt measure, which strips out bank cash and deposits (¥127 billion at June 30, per payp/2026-06).
PayPay closed the quarter at $15.70 (September 30, 2026), up 9.6% from $14.33 on June 30, with a closing low of $14.29 (August 20) and a closing high of $18.68 on September 14, so the stock rose 30.7% from the low to the high and then gave back 16.0% by quarter-end. The $15.70 close is still below the $16 IPO price of March 12, 2026. The release does not state the share count at September 30; the table uses the 677,343,000 shares reported at June 30, which is consistent with the roughly 677 million weighted shares implied by profit attributable to owners (¥17.3 billion) and basic earnings per share (¥25.56). Dollar figures use ¥157.56 per dollar at September 30 (¥162.63 at June 30):
| Market cap → enterprise value | Sep 30, 2026 | Jun 30, 2026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Share price (period-end) | $15.70 | $14.33 | +9.6% |
| Shares outstanding | 677,343,000 | 677,343,000 | 0.0% |
| Market capitalization | ~$10.63B | ~$9.71B | +9.6% |
| Borrowings + lease liabilities | ~$5.52B | ~$4.71B | +17% |
| Less: cash and cash equivalents | ~$3.62B | ~$3.02B | +20% |
| Enterprise value | ~$12.54B | ~$11.40B | +10% |
| Multiple check | Sep 30, 2026 | Jun 30, 2026 |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue, trailing twelve months | ~$2.73B (¥429.9B) | ~$2.49B (¥404.3B) |
| EV/Revenue (trailing twelve months) | ~4.60x | ~4.58x |
| Adjusted EBITDA, trailing twelve months | ~$0.89B (¥139.9B) | ~$0.77B (¥125.0B) |
| EV/Adjusted EBITDA (trailing twelve months) | ~14.1x | ~14.8x |
| P/E on the quarter annualized (Q2 attributable profit x 4, ~$439.5M) | ~24.2x | ~21.4x (Q1 basis) |
| EV/Revenue on the guidance midpoint (¥476B, ~$3.02B) | ~4.15x | ~3.95x (guidance then current) |
| EV/Adjusted EBITDA on the guidance midpoint (¥161B, ~$1.02B) | ~12.3x | ~12.2x (guidance then current) |
Enterprise value here does not add non-controlling interests (about $0.24 billion, or ¥37.1 billion, at September 30, 2026), although revenue is consolidated; adding them would put EV/Revenue (trailing twelve months) at about 4.68x instead of 4.60x. The yen strengthened about 3% against the dollar over the quarter, which lifts every dollar figure above with no change in yen.
The stock rose 9.6% while EV/Revenue stayed flat and EV/Adjusted EBITDA on trailing profit fell from 14.8x to 14.1x, so the market is paying about the same for revenue and slightly less for trailing profit than three months ago. The P/E went the other way, from 21.4x to 24.2x, because the quarter's profit (¥17.3 billion attributable) was below the first quarter's (¥18.4 billion) even though operating profit was higher, for the reasons in Beyond the Usual. Annualizing one quarter overstates precision. On the company's raised guidance, the guided midpoints put EV at 4.15x forward revenue and 12.3x forward Adjusted EBITDA, but the second-half implied margin of about 33% is below this quarter's 36%, so the forward EBITDA multiple depends on whether the guidance is cautious (as the two beats suggest) or the cost picture is changing.
What the window did contain: the first quarter's results, the guidance raise and the Seven & i alliance, which were furnished on July 30 US time (July 31 in Tokyo). The stock closed at $14.84 on July 29, $16.09 on July 30 (+8.4%) and $15.13 on July 31 (-6.0%). The documents read do not say why the stock moved on either day. From a close of $14.99 on September 1 the stock rose to $18.68 on September 14, a 24.6% gain in nine trading days, and fell back to $15.70; the documents read contain no event for that run or the reversal, and a coincidence of dates is not a cause. This release was published on November 4, after the price data end, so the price reaction to the results is not in these figures. One structural factor is documented: the Form 20-F says four SoftBank-group holders (B Holdings Corporation, SVF II Piranha (DE) LLC, SoftBank Corp. and LY Corporation) together owned 90.62% of PayPay's shares at May 31, 2026, which leaves about 9.4% outside them. That is a thin float, but the documents read give no trading volume or investor breakdown, so whether it amplified these moves cannot be shown.
Three public reporting periods are too few for a multi-year projection, the same constraint flagged in payp/2026-03. The beat was real and smaller than the last one; the range PayPay raised leaves less room for margin than the two quarters it has just reported.
PayPay Corporation's "Second Quarter Ended September 30, 2026 Financial Results" earnings release (Exhibit 99.1, furnished to the SEC on Form 6-K on November 4, 2026 Tokyo time, November 3 US time), which includes the unaudited condensed consolidated financial statements and notes under IFRS. Prior-quarter figures, prior guidance, the Seven & i Holdings alliance terms and the T&D Financial Life Insurance acquisition are from payp/2026-06 and the filings it cites; the IPO price and shareholdings as of May 31, 2026 are from the Form 20-F for the year ended March 31, 2026. Share prices are closing prices on the dates stated; the shares outstanding figure is the latest count in the company's SEC filings (June 30, 2026), since the release does not state one. Figures marked "implied" or "annualized" are the author's arithmetic on the reported figures.