Growth Kept Compounding Through A Seasonally Soft Quarter
Grab's first quarter of 2025 landed during what management itself calls the seasonally softest stretch of the year - Lunar New Year and the entire Ramadan fasting period both fell inside the same three months, a compression that didn't happen the same way in Q1 2024, when Ramadan spilled into Q2. Even against that backdrop, revenue grew 18% year-over-year (matching on a constant-currency basis) to a record $773 million, On-Demand GMV» grew 16% YoY (17% constant-currency) to $4.9 billion, and Group Adjusted EBITDA» hit a new all-time high of $106 million - the thirteenth consecutive quarter of sequential improvement, a streak now running three full years without a single reversal.
CFO Peter Oey's headline number, though, wasn't the quarterly Adjusted EBITDA figure - it was trailing-twelve-month Adjusted Free Cash Flow» "scaling to $157 million," up from the $136 million full-year-2024 figure this blog covered as Grab's first full positive year on the metric. That's a genuine trend continuation, not a one-quarter blip: the metric has now been positive on a trailing-twelve-month basis for three straight quarters covered here. On a standalone quarterly basis, though, Adjusted Free Cash Flow was actually negative $101 million - worse by $7 million than Q1 2024's negative $94 million - which Grab attributes to "higher seasonal working capital requirements" typical of the first quarter, plus higher capital expenditures. The trailing figure improving while the standalone quarter worsened slightly is the kind of gap this blog has flagged before as worth watching rather than ignoring in favor of the smoother trailing number alone.
Management raised full-year 2025 Adjusted EBITDA guidance to $460-480 million from $440-470 million - the fourth straight quarter of a guidance raise on this metric - while leaving revenue guidance of $3.33-3.40 billion unchanged. Notably, Tan's framing leaned harder into macro caution than any prior quarter covered here, repeatedly describing Grab as a "counter-cyclical company" that can "weather through uncertainties in the macroeconomic landscape" - language that wasn't part of Grab's vocabulary as recently as Q4 2024's call.
The Prescription
Grab should keep pushing the "affordable tier gains users, high-value tier gains revenue" playbook that's now visibly working in both On-Demand segments at once: Saver Deliveries reached 35% of transactions (up from 26% a year ago) while Advance Booking GMV in Mobility more than doubled YoY, and Deliveries segment margin expanded to 2.0% of GMV even during the seasonally weakest quarter of the year. That combination - expanding the addressable base at the bottom while monetizing the top - is a genuinely differentiated position relative to competitors still choosing one lever over the other, and it's the reason Adjusted EBITDA kept compounding through a quarter with two separate seasonal headwinds stacked on top of each other.
What it should stop doing: letting a full stop in share buybacks pass without a word of explanation. Grab repurchased zero shares in the first quarter of 2025 - the cash flow statement shows a flat "-" against Q1 2024's $97 million of repurchases - leaving $274 million of the $500 million authorization exactly where it stood three months earlier (see Key Financial Metrics). Nothing in the press release, presentation, or prepared remarks acknowledges the pause, let alone explains it. A company that spent three straight quarters building a buyback narrative around steady, predictable execution owes a reader a sentence on why that predictability just stopped, not silence.
Key Financial Metrics
Q1 2025 vs. Q1 2024 - consolidated, reported in USD
Grab reports natively in US dollars, so no FX conversion is needed here. Constant-currency growth matched or nearly matched headline growth across every line this quarter - a much smaller currency effect than the multi-point gaps this blog tracked through most of 2024, suggesting Southeast Asian currencies were relatively stable against the dollar during the quarter.
| Metric | Q1 2025 | Q1 2024 | YoY | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| On-Demand GMV | $4,932M | $4,242M | ✅ +16% | +17% constant-currency |
| Revenue | $773M | $653M | ✅ +18% | +18% constant-currency; all-time high, growth accelerated from Q4 |
| Total Segment Adjusted EBITDA | $192M | $153M | ✅ +26% | Every segment except Financial Services improved YoY |
| Adjusted EBITDA | $106M | $62M | ✅ +71% | All-time high; thirteenth straight quarter of sequential improvement |
| Operating loss (IFRS) | $(21)M | $(75)M | ✅ +72% | Narrowest quarterly operating loss covered here |
| Profit for the period | $10M | $(115)M | ✅ NM | ~$67M of the $125M YoY swing came from net finance income, not operations (see below) |
| Net cash from operating activities | $73M | $(11)M | ✅ NM | Includes a $193M customer-deposit inflow |
| Free Cash Flow (FCF) | $42M | $(29)M | ✅ NM | Operating cash flow less $35M capex plus $4M disposal proceeds, unadjusted for deposit/loan working capital |
| Adjusted Free Cash Flow (quarter) | $(101)M | $(94)M | ⚠️ -8% | Worse YoY on seasonal working-capital timing and higher capex |
| Adjusted Free Cash Flow (trailing 12 months) | $157M | n/a | — | Up from $136M at FY2024 year-end |
Regional corporate costs held essentially flat at $86 million (from $91 million a year ago, a 5% reduction in fixed costs) and were roughly stable sequentially from $87 million in Q4 2024. Profit for the period swung from a $115 million loss to a $10 million profit, a $125 million improvement - but only $55 million of that came from the operating-loss narrowing; the remaining roughly $67 million came from net finance income swinging from a $23 million cost to a $44 million gain, which the press release attributes partly to $33 million of net foreign-exchange gains. This is now a recurring pattern this blog has tracked across Q3 2024 and Q4 2024 - a currency or fair-value swing below the operating line doing more work on the headline profit figure than the underlying operations did (see Beyond the Usual).
| Balance sheet metric | Mar 2025 | Dec 2024 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Total Assets | $9,636M | $9,295M | ✅ +4% |
| Total Liabilities | $3,168M | $2,944M | ⚠️ +8% |
| Total Equity | $6,468M | $6,351M | ✅ +2% |
As in every recent quarter, the liabilities increase is mostly the digital-banking deposit line, up to $1,432 million from $1,225 million - a funding source for the lending book, not distress. Cash liquidity rose to $6.2 billion from $6.1 billion, and net cash liquidity rose to $5.9 billion from $5.8 billion, both moves attributable largely to continued deposit growth. Grab disclosed no share repurchases this quarter (see The Prescription above), leaving $274 million of the $500 million buyback authorization undeployed, unchanged from year-end.
Trailing Eight Quarters
| Period | Revenue | Adjusted EBITDA | Profit/(Loss) for the Period |
|---|---|---|---|
| Q2 2023 | $567M | $(20)M | $(148)M |
| Q3 2023 | $615M | $29M | $(99)M |
| Q4 2023 | $653M | $35M | $11M |
| Q1 2024 | $653M | $62M | $(115)M |
| Q2 2024 | $664M | $64M | $(68)M |
| Q3 2024 | $716M | $90M | $15M |
| Q4 2024 | $764M | $97M | $11M |
| Q1 2025 | $773M | $106M | $10M |
Adjusted EBITDA has now improved sequentially in all eight of these quarters, part of the thirteen-quarter streak management cites. Revenue growth has also now accelerated for three straight quarters on a sequential percentage-point basis (17% in Q3 2024, 17% in Q4 2024, 18% in Q1 2025 restated on a comparable YoY basis) even as Q1 is structurally the softest quarter of the year for seasonal reasons - a genuinely strong result given that context, not one that should be read flat against Q4's larger absolute revenue base. Profit for the period, though, is still oscillating in the same narrow band this blog flagged after Q4 2024 - $11M, $15M, $11M, $10M across the last four quarters - even as revenue and Adjusted EBITDA both climbed steadily across the same stretch, reinforcing that net income isn't compounding the way the operating metrics are (see Beyond the Usual).
Segment Results
Q1 2025, four reportable segments
Grab reports four segments - Deliveries, Mobility, Financial Services, and Others - unchanged since Q1 2024's restructuring.
| Segment | GMV (Q1'25) | YoY | Revenue (Q1'25) | Segment Adj. EBITDA (Q1'25) | Margin | YoY Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Deliveries | $3,129M | ✅ +16% (+17% CC) | $415M | $63M | ✅ 2.0% (of GMV) | vs 1.6% in Q1'24 |
| Mobility | $1,804M | ✅ +17% (+17% CC) | $282M | $159M | ⚠️ 8.8% (of GMV) | vs 8.9% in Q1'24 |
| Financial Services | n/a (GMV discontinued) | — | $75M | $(30)M | ⚠️ (40.0)% (of revenue) | vs (50.9)% in Q1'24 |
| Others | n/a | — | $1M | ~$0.3M | — NM | roughly flat YoY |
Deliveries GMV growth accelerated to 16% YoY (17% constant-currency) from Q4 2024's 19% YoY on a larger base - a deceleration in absolute rate but, per management, an actual acceleration versus the 16% YoY rate the segment posted a year ago in Q1 2024, since this year's Ramadan fell entirely within the quarter rather than spilling into Q2. Segment Adjusted EBITDA margin expanded to 2.0% of GMV from 1.6% a year ago, reversing Q4 2024's first-ever YoY margin decline for the segment and setting a new high. Saver Deliveries reached 35% of transactions (up from 26% a year ago), Group Orders GMV more than tripled YoY, and advertising revenue held at 1.7% of Deliveries GMV, flat sequentially from Q4 2024 despite the seasonally softer quarter.
Mobility GMV grew 17% YoY on both a headline and constant-currency basis - a deceleration from Q4 2024's 23% YoY, the fastest rate this blog had tracked - which management attributes to the same Lunar New Year/Ramadan overlap affecting Deliveries. Segment margin held essentially flat at 8.8% of GMV versus 8.9% a year ago, continuing the pattern of deliberate reinvestment in high-value and affordable-tier products that's persisted since Q1 2024. Saver rides reached 27% of Mobility transactions and Advance Booking GMV more than doubled YoY, aided by a new Advance Booking option for airport pickups following Singapore's Land Transport Authority awarding Grab's GrabCab subsidiary a street-hail operator license during the quarter.
Financial Services revenue grew 36% YoY (38% constant-currency) to $75 million, continuing to be Grab's fastest-growing segment by revenue, but the segment Adjusted EBITDA loss widened 9% YoY to $30 million on higher expected-credit-loss provisions as loan disbursals scaled - the fourth straight quarter this segment's loss has moved the wrong direction YoY even as revenue keeps accelerating (it also widened in Q1 2024 and stayed roughly flat through most of 2024 before this quarter's reversal). Loan portfolio» grew 56% YoY to $566 million, with total loans disbursed up 30% YoY to $630 million (a $2.5 billion annualized run-rate). Customer deposits across GXS Bank (Singapore) and GX Bank (Malaysia) reached $1.4 billion, up from $1.2 billion last quarter and $479 million a year ago - roughly tripling YoY. Indonesia's Superbank (in which Grab now discloses a 30.84% equity stake, its first disclosure of the exact ownership percentage in this blog's coverage) reached 3.3 million deposit customers, up from 2.8 million in December, helped by the launch of "OVO Nabung," a savings product layered onto the OVO wallet. Management reiterated the Financial Services breakeven target of "second half 2026," unchanged since first disclosed in Q1 2023.
Others posted $1 million of revenue and roughly $0.3 million of Adjusted EBITDA, immaterial to the group total.
Read across the segment table, the quarter's real story is a split: both On-Demand segments (Deliveries, Mobility) grew GMV in the mid-to-high teens through a doubly-seasonal quarter without giving up margin - Deliveries actually expanded margin YoY - while Financial Services kept growing revenue faster than any other segment but let its loss widen for the first time in over a year. That's a genuinely different pattern from Q4 2024, when Financial Services was the only segment improving on every axis while On-Demand margins slipped; this quarter essentially inverted which segment is the one with a asterisk next to it.
Beyond the Usual
Grab's only Q1 2025 source documents are the earnings press release (also furnished to the SEC as a 6-K exhibit, identical in content to the press release itself), the supplemental investor presentation, and CEO/COO/CFO prepared remarks - no annual 20-F was filed this quarter, and no quarterly filing with genuine footnotes exists, continuing the pattern every non-annual quarter on this blog has shown. That means none of the three legal/governance threads tracked through last quarter's 20-F - the securities class-action settlement, the Malaysia Competition Commission appeal, and the Toyota related-party agreement - have any new company-disclosed information this quarter; they simply weren't addressed in materials of this type, the same limitation this blog has noted whenever a quarter falls between annual filings.
The Buyback Went Completely Silent, With No Acknowledgment Anywhere In The Materials
Grab repurchased zero shares in the first quarter of 2025, the first quarter since the $500 million buyback program began in Q4 2023 with no disclosed activity at all - the cash flow statement shows a flat dash where Q1 2024 recorded $97 million of repurchases, and the $274 million remaining balance is unchanged from December 31, 2024. Every prior quarter's materials disclosed the specific dollar amount and share count repurchased that quarter, however small; this quarter's press release and prepared remarks state only the unchanged remaining balance, without confirming whether the pause was deliberate (a capital-allocation choice amid the "increased levels of macroeconomic uncertainty" management referenced repeatedly on this call) or incidental. Either explanation would be a legitimate answer - what's missing is that Grab didn't volunteer one.
The Recurring Below-The-Line Profit Boost Continued For A Third Straight Quarter
Roughly $67 million of this quarter's $125 million YoY profit improvement came from net finance income swinging from a $23 million cost to a $44 million gain, including $33 million of disclosed net foreign-exchange gains - meaning a bit over half the improvement in the headline profit figure came from items below the operating line, not from the business itself. This is the third quarter in a row this blog has had to isolate this split independently: Q3 2024's finance-income swing and Q4 2024's reversal of it both showed the same pattern in opposite directions. Grab's own prepared remarks this quarter do name "higher net finance income (including foreign exchange gains)" as a driver of the profit improvement - a more direct acknowledgment than Q3 2024 gave, though still without quantifying how much of the total improvement it represents, which is the piece a reader has to compute independently every time.
Grab's non-IFRS reconciliation table separated "costs related to mergers and acquisitions" into its own line for the first time this quarter, disclosing that these costs (a comparatively small $2 million in Q1 2025, $4 million in the restated Q1 2024 comparative) had previously been folded into the "legal, tax and regulatory settlement provisions" line rather than broken out - a presentation change, not a change in what's actually being spent, but worth noting since it also makes the settlement-provisions line easier to read cleanly going forward: it now shows just $4 million for the quarter, back to an ordinary run rate after Q4 2024's $44 million one-time spike tied to the $80 million securities-settlement accrual. That normalization is itself a quiet confirmation that the settlement charge really was a one-off booked in FY2024 rather than an ongoing cost.
Beginning this quarter, Grab also redefined Adjusted Free Cash Flow to include proceeds from disposal of property, plant and equipment (a modest $4 million this quarter), restating prior-quarter comparatives for consistency - a minor scope change worth knowing about since it means the trailing-twelve-month $157 million figure isn't computed on an identical basis to the $136 million full-year-2024 figure it's being compared against in the headlines, even though the restated comparatives make the two numbers technically comparable once the adjustment is applied.
Management's Case For Counter-Cyclical Resilience, Repeated Without Q&A For A Third Straight Quarter
Anthony Tan's remarks leaned more heavily on macro framing than any quarter covered here - repeating the word "counter-cyclical" twice in a single paragraph and describing Grab's affordability- and reliability-focused product strategy as what will let it "remain resilient in an uncertain macroeconomic environment." That's a materially different emphasis from Q4 2024's remarks, which focused on cross-sell and Autonomous Vehicles without any macro-defensive framing at all - a shift that arrived before any of Q1's actual numbers showed macro stress, since the quarter's growth rates were broadly in line with or ahead of the prior year's. COO Alex Hungate's remarks introduced a new data point on headroom: Group MTUs» represent only 6% of Southeast Asia's population, and Daily Transacting Users are only 16% of the MTU base - the first time this blog has seen Grab disclose either penetration figure explicitly. None of the prepared remarks addressed the buyback pause or any of the three open legal/governance threads (see Beyond the Usual) - this is Grab's third straight quarter of prepared-remarks-only materials with no disclosed analyst Q&A, a pattern that began in Q3 2024 and has now persisted through two additional quarters without any acknowledgment of why.
Target Valuation Range
DCF-implied fair value of roughly $2.00-$3.15 per share (bear to bull), against a $4.53 close - still overvalued, but for the first time in this blog's coverage the gap to the bull case narrowed rather than widened. Grab's stock gave back some of its Q4 2024 rally while the trailing cash-flow base kept growing, so an updated DCF using the higher $157 million trailing figure lands closer to (though still below) the market price than Q4 2024's model did.
Grab's stock closed the first quarter of 2025 at $4.53, down 4% from $4.72 at the end of Q4 2024 - the first quarter-over-quarter decline this blog has tracked since early 2024, following a two-year uptrend that peaked near $5.00 in November 2024. Using the 4,083,319 thousand weighted-average basic shares Grab discloses for the quarter:
| Market cap → enterprise value | Q1 2025 |
|---|---|
| Share price (period-end) | $4.53 |
| Shares outstanding | ~4.083B |
| Market capitalization | ~$18.5B |
| Total liabilities | n/a (net cash basis used) |
| Less: net cash liquidity | $5.9B |
| Enterprise value | ~$12.6B |
Market cap is down from ~$19.1B at Q4 2024's close; EV is down from ~$13.3B three months ago.
| Peer-multiple sanity check | Q4 2024 | Q1 2025 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Enterprise value | ~$13.3B | ~$12.6B | ✅ down |
| EV/Revenue (annualized run-rate) | ~4.4x | ~4.1x | ✅ down |
| EV/Revenue (FY guidance midpoint) | ~3.9x | ~3.7x | ✅ down |
| EV/On-Demand GMV (annualized run-rate) | ~0.66x | ~0.64x | ✅ down |
Every multiple compressed modestly this quarter, a reversal of Q4 2024's sharp re-rating up, even as the underlying business kept growing at a similar or faster pace. Updating the DCF built last quarter with the new $157 million trailing Adjusted Free Cash Flow base (versus $136 million three months ago), the same 13% discount rate, and five-year fade paths built around FY2025's raised guidance:
| Scenario | Year 1-5 Adjusted FCF path | Terminal growth | Implied equity value per share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Current (Q1 2025 close) | — actual market price, for reference | — | $4.53 |
| Bear | $140M → $240M | 2% | ~$2.00 |
| Base | $210M → $600M | 3% | ~$2.65 |
| Bull | $270M → $800M | 4% | ~$3.15 |
The bull case now lands roughly 30% below the $4.53 close, versus a 35% gap against Q4 2024's $4.72 close using the same methodology - a narrower gap, but for a reason that cuts both ways: the trailing cash-flow base genuinely grew (which alone would narrow the gap even at a flat price), and the price also fell (which narrows it further on its own). Disentangling the two, most of the improvement is coming from the business, not from the market suddenly agreeing with this blog's model - the multiple compression above is modest, not a re-rating down to DCF-implied levels. This remains a directional model, not a definitive one, and the second consecutive quarter of a narrowing (rather than widening) gap is worth tracking as its own trend line going forward, distinct from any single quarter's verdict.
Grab Holdings Limited's Q1 2025 earnings press release, supplemental investor presentation, and CEO/COO/CFO prepared remarks (all dated April 30, 2025).