GRAB Grab Just Posted Its First Full Year Of Profit - The Stock Fell 17% Anyway

The Year The Losses Finally Stopped

Grab closed 2025 with the number this blog has been building toward since Q3 2023's first-ever positive quarterly Adjusted EBITDA: a full fiscal year of net profit. Profit for the year was $200 million, a $358 million swing from 2024's $158 million loss, on revenue that crossed $3 billion for the first time at $3.37 billion (+20% YoY, +18% constant-currency) and full-year Adjusted EBITDA of $500 million (+60% YoY) - landing at the very top of the guidance range management raised twice during the year. Fourth-quarter numbers were themselves records: revenue of $906 million (+19% YoY), On-Demand GMV^» of $6.1 billion (+21% YoY), and Adjusted EBITDA of $148 million (+54% YoY), Grab's seventeenth consecutive quarter of sequential EBITDA improvement.

The capital-allocation thread this blog has tracked since Q1 2025's unexplained zero-repurchase quarter finally got an answer. Grab repurchased zero shares in both Q3 and Q4 2025 - meaning the entire year's $274 million of buybacks happened in a single quarter (Q2) - and neither quarter's materials explained why. Alongside this Q4 report, CFO Peter Oey announced a newly authorized $500 million share repurchase program, framed explicitly around a new three-year outlook: $1.5 billion of Adjusted EBITDA and 80% Adjusted Free Cash Flow^» conversion by 2028. That's a real answer to a question this blog asked for three straight quarters - a program lapsed, went unmentioned for two quarters, and has now been replaced with a bigger one tied to a specific multi-year target, rather than the silence continuing indefinitely.

None of that stopped the stock from falling. Grab closed 2025 at $4.99, down 17% from the $6.02 high flagged last quarter and roughly flat with where it stood in June. The DCF gap that widened for two straight quarters as the stock rallied ahead of the fundamentals has, for the first time in this blog's coverage of Grab, moved the other way (see Target Valuation Range).

The Prescription

Grab should keep doing exactly what turned Q4 2025 into a record quarter: growing both On-Demand segments' GMV around 20% YoY while expanding Deliveries margin to 2.2% of GMV (from 1.8%) and holding Mobility margin roughly flat at 8.6%, all while Financial Services' loan portfolio more than doubled YoY to $1.18 billion without a corresponding blowout in credit losses. The new three-year targets - 20% revenue CAGR, $1.5 billion of 2028 Adjusted EBITDA, 80% cash conversion - are the first time management has committed to a multi-year number rather than guiding one year at a time, and the FY2025 results (a full year of profit, a full year of positive cash flow for the second straight year) give that commitment real footing rather than being pure aspiration.

What it should stop doing: letting operating cash flow swing this violently on lending growth without contextualizing it in the same breath as the milestone it's celebrating. Full-year net cash from operating activities collapsed 91% to $79 million (from $852 million in 2024), almost entirely because loan receivables grew $691 million in 2025 versus $276 million in 2024 - a genuinely good sign for the lending business's growth, but one that makes the reported operating-cash-flow line look like a near-collapse unless a reader already knows to look at Adjusted Free Cash Flow instead. The press release explains this correctly in its bullet points, but a company three years into publishing an Adjusted Free Cash Flow metric specifically designed to strip out lending working-capital noise should stop presenting the unadjusted operating-cash-flow figure as a headline number at all - it now measures something closer to "how fast is the loan book growing" than "how much cash did the business generate."

Key Financial Metrics

Q4 2025 vs. Q4 2024 - consolidated, reported in USD

Grab reports natively in US dollars, so no FX conversion is needed here. The gap between headline and constant-currency growth narrowed to about 2 percentage points this quarter, tighter than Q3 2025's 4-5 point spread.

Metric	Q4 2025	Q4 2024	YoY	Note
On-Demand GMV	$6,077M	$5,028M	✅ +21%	+20% constant-currency; new all-time high
Revenue	$906M	$764M	✅ +19%	+17% constant-currency; new all-time high
Total Segment Adjusted EBITDA	$244M	$184M	✅ +33%	Every segment improved YoY
Adjusted EBITDA	$148M	$97M	✅ +54%	All-time high; seventeenth straight quarter of sequential improvement
Operating profit (IFRS)	$52M	$2M	✅ NM	Best operating result in this blog's coverage
Profit for the period	$153M	$11M	✅ NM	Best quarterly profit in this blog's coverage - see below
Net cash from operating activities	$69M	$253M	⚠️ -73%	$382M loan-receivables outflow vs $69M a year ago
Adjusted Free Cash Flow (quarter)	$76M	$69M	✅ +10%
Adjusted Free Cash Flow (trailing 12 months)	$290M	$162M	✅ +79%	Now equal to the full FY2025 figure

Profit for the period jumped $142 million YoY to $153 million, the largest single-quarter improvement this blog has tracked, and unlike Q3 2025's finance-income setback, the below-the-operating-line items helped rather than hurt this time: net finance income swung to $112 million from $12 million a year ago, including a $61 million favorable change in the fair value of the convertible notes' embedded derivative (versus an $18 million gain a year ago) and finance income of $79 million (versus $45 million). Regional corporate costs rose to $96 million (from $87 million a year ago and $95 million last quarter) but fell as a share of revenue to 10.6% from 11.4% a year ago, continuing the operating-leverage trend this blog has flagged for several quarters running.

Balance sheet metric	Dec 2025	Dec 2024	Change
Total Assets	$11,983M	$9,295M	✅ +29%
Total Liabilities	$5,226M	$2,944M	⚠️ +78%
Total Equity	$6,757M	$6,351M	✅ +6%

Current loans and borrowings fell to $1,680 million from $2,053 million three months earlier as Grab paid down debt, and net cash liquidity - gross cash liquidity less loans and borrowings - rose to $5.4 billion from $5.3 billion last quarter, ending the three-quarter decline flagged last quarter (see Target Valuation Range below).

Trailing Eight Quarters

Period	Revenue	Adjusted EBITDA	Profit/(Loss) for the Period
Q1 2024	$653M	$62M	$(115)M
Q2 2024	$664M	$64M	$(68)M
Q3 2024	$716M	$90M	$15M
Q4 2024	$764M	$97M	$11M
Q1 2025	$773M	$106M	$10M
Q2 2025	$819M	$109M	$20M
Q3 2025	$873M	$136M	$17M
Q4 2025	$906M	$148M	$153M

Adjusted EBITDA has now improved sequentially in all eight of these quarters, extending the streak management itself cites to seventeen. The Profit column, which bounced between $10-20 million for the previous three quarters, broke sharply out of that band this quarter - a genuine step-change rather than another oscillation, driven by the finance-income tailwind described above landing on top of, not instead of, a real $65 million YoY improvement in the FY2025 full-year operating result.

Segment Results

Q4 2025 and FY2025, four reportable segments

Grab reports four segments - Deliveries, Mobility, Financial Services, and Others - unchanged since Q1 2024's restructuring.

Segment	GMV (Q4'25)	YoY	Revenue (Q4'25)	Segment Adj. EBITDA (Q4'25)	Margin	YoY Margin
Deliveries	$3,904M	✅ +21% (+21% CC)	$481M	$84M	✅ 2.2% (of GMV)	vs 1.8% in Q4'24
Mobility	$2,174M	✅ +20% (+19% CC)	$325M	$186M	✅ 8.6% (of GMV)	vs 8.4% in Q4'24
Financial Services	n/a (GMV discontinued)	—	$99M	$(25)M	✅ (25.6)% (of revenue)	vs (36.3)% in Q4'24
Others	n/a	—	$1M	$(1)M	⚠️ NM	vs $1M in Q4'24

Deliveries GMV grew 21% YoY (21% constant-currency) to $3,904 million - a slight deceleration from Q3 2025's 26% YoY but still Grab's fourth straight quarter of GMV growth above 20%. Segment Adjusted EBITDA margin expanded to 2.2% of GMV from 1.8% a year ago, the fourth straight quarter of YoY margin expansion, on continued Advertising growth (quarterly active self-serve advertisers up 21% YoY to 228,000, average spend per advertiser up 23% YoY) and operating leverage. Full-year Deliveries revenue crossed $1.8 billion (+21% YoY) and segment Adjusted EBITDA grew 47% YoY to $287 million, taking the full-year margin to 2.0% from 1.6% in 2024.

Mobility GMV grew 20% YoY (19% constant-currency) to $2,174 million, the fourth straight quarter above 20% alongside Deliveries. Segment margin expanded to 8.6% of GMV from 8.4% a year ago, a smaller improvement than Q3 2025's flat-to-up move but still a second straight quarter of YoY margin expansion after most of 2024's declines. Full-year Mobility transactions grew 27% YoY, outpacing GMV growth for the full year - the "more, cheaper trips" dynamic this blog has flagged since mid-2025 held for the entire year, not just isolated quarters. Full-year Mobility segment Adjusted EBITDA grew 21% YoY to $690 million with margin at 8.7%, roughly flat with 2024.

Financial Services revenue grew 34% YoY (33% constant-currency) to $99 million, again the fastest-growing segment, and the segment Adjusted EBITDA loss narrowed 6% YoY to $25 million. Total loans disbursed grew 53% YoY to $979 million, and the net loan portfolio^» more than doubled YoY to $1,180 million (gross portfolio, before credit-loss provisions, was $1,278 million, up from $586 million a year ago) - a genuinely different scale of lending book than the $536 million reported this time last year. Customer deposits across GXS Bank (Singapore) and GXBank (Malaysia) reached an all-time high of $1.6 billion, up from $1.2 billion a year ago, recovering from Q3 2025's rate-driven sequential dip. Management reiterated 90-day non-performing loans^» stayed "well within our risk appetite" even as the book more than doubled. Full-year Financial Services Adjusted EBITDA loss widened a modest 5% YoY to $110 million, which management attributes to higher credit-loss provisions as the book scales rather than deteriorating unit economics.

Others posted $1 million of revenue and a small $1 million Adjusted EBITDA loss, immaterial to the group total.

Every segment carried its own version of the same 2025 story: Deliveries and Mobility both grew GMV in the high teens to low twenties while expanding margin every single quarter of the year, and Financial Services more than doubled its loan book while narrowing its dollar loss - the "growth and margin together" pattern first flagged as a genuine milestone in Q3 2024 held for a full four quarters running, the cleanest year-long version of it this blog has tracked.

Beyond the Usual

Grab's FY2025 Form 20-F contains real, dated developments on all three of the legal/governance threads this blog has tracked since the FY2024 20-F - the first annual filing since then, since no 20-F is filed between quarters.

The Securities Class-Action Settlement Received Final Court Approval, Closing A Four-Year Thread

The securities class action first disclosed in Grab's FY2021 20-F and preliminarily settled for $80 million as reported in the FY2024 20-F reached its actual conclusion: on May 15, 2025, the U.S. District Court for the Southern District of New York granted final approval of the $80 million settlement, and the associated accrual was settled during the year. This closes out a matter this blog has tracked across four fiscal years of 20-F filings, from initial disclosure through preliminary approval to final resolution, without it ever once being mentioned in an earnings call or press release along the way.

The Malaysia Competition Commission Case Ended Entirely In Grab's Favor

The Malaysia Competition Commission's proposed MYR 86.8 million penalty - under appeal since the FY2022 20-F first disclosed it and pending a Court of Appeal ruling as of the FY2024 20-F - is now over: the Court of Appeal dismissed MyCC's appeal, and the Federal Court subsequently denied MyCC's application for leave to appeal further, ending the case with no penalty paid. Three years of disclosed uncertainty on this specific matter resolved with Grab paying nothing, a cleaner outcome than the securities settlement above.

The GrabMart trademark suit, absent from the FY2024 20-F with no disclosed resolution, remains absent from this year's filing too - the same non-disclosure persists a second straight annual report, still with nothing said either way.

Grab's Framework Collaboration Agreement with Toyota - which the FY2024 20-F disclosed as having lapsed on August 13, 2024 without renewal, the first time this recurring related-party arrangement had actually lapsed in this blog's coverage - was in fact renewed: this year's 20-F discloses the FCA now expires August 13, 2026, meaning it was extended again at some point after last year's filing, contradicting the "lapsed" reading of a year ago. Transaction value under the FCA fell to $54 million in 2025 from a flat $78 million in both 2024 and 2023, the first year-over-year decline this blog has tracked for this arrangement.

Superbank's Indonesia IPO Went Unmentioned In The Earnings Materials, And Grab's Own Stake Disclosure Got Less Precise, Not More

Superbank, Grab's Indonesian digital bank, completed an initial public offering on the Indonesia Stock Exchange sometime during 2025, per a "2025 Highlights" bullet buried in the FY2025 20-F - neither the earnings press release nor the presentation mentions this anywhere, even though a portfolio digital bank going public is a genuine capital-markets event. The same filing's related-party section also quietly downgrades Grab's ownership disclosure: PT Super Bank Indonesia Tbk is now described only as an entity "in which we have less than 50% equity interest," a vaguer figure than the exact 37.88% effective equity interest Grab reported as of Q3 2025. The IPO itself is the likely explanation - new shares sold to public investors would mechanically dilute Grab's stake below its pre-IPO level - but the 20-F never states Grab's actual post-IPO ownership percentage, so a reader can no longer track this specific number the way the prior three quarters allowed.

Grab's Digital Banking JV with Singtel now discloses a combined capital contribution obligation of up to SGD 1.93 billion ($1.5 billion), up from the roughly $1 billion figure disclosed in the FY2022 20-F - a genuinely larger commitment than previously known, though Grab states both parties have demonstrated sufficient resources to Singapore's Monetary Authority to meet it.

Non-cancelable purchase obligations - which tripled to $563 million in the FY2024 20-F from $181 million the year before - fell back to $494 million this year, still attributed to data-processing and technology-platform-infrastructure commitments. Grab continues to state plainly it has no off-balance-sheet financing arrangements or unconsolidated special-purpose entities.

Grab has now received a protective tax assessment from Singapore tax authorities in December of four consecutive years - 2022, 2023, 2024, and 2025 - all concerning the tax treatment of certain expenses and transfer-pricing arrangements for financial years 2017 to 2020. Grab has accrued income tax liabilities based on its best estimate of taxes ultimately expected to be paid, but the matter itself remains unresolved four years after Singapore tax authorities first raised it, with no indication in this filing of when it might conclude.

In two subsequent events disclosed after year-end, Grab acquired a minority equity stake in Vay Technology GmbH, a remote-driving technology company operating in the United States, for $55 million cash (with a potential milestone-linked follow-on investment) - a direct link to the Autonomous Vehicles push CEO Anthony Tan has flagged in recent quarters. Separately, in February 2026 Grab entered definitive agreements to acquire 100% of Stash Financial, Inc., a US digital financial services provider, at an enterprise value of $425 million - an initial payment for 50.1% at closing (expected Q3 2026) with the remaining interest paid over three years at fair value. Neither investment shows up anywhere in the FY2025 financial statements themselves, but together they represent Grab's first disclosed steps toward a financial-services or mobility-adjacent footprint outside Southeast Asia.

Target Valuation Range

DCF-implied fair value of roughly $2.11-$4.00 per share (bear to bull), against a $4.99 close - still overvalued on a straightforward cash-flow basis, but the gap to the bull case narrowed sharply this quarter. Grab's stock fell 17% from its Q3 2025 high while the business's cash generation and balance sheet both improved, so for the first time in this blog's coverage the reprice moved toward the model rather than away from it.

Grab's stock closed 2025 at $4.99, down from $6.02 at the end of Q3 2025 (a peak flagged as a new high at the time) after touching $6.01 in October before falling through November and December - a large enough retreat to call out directly. Using the 4,088,531 thousand weighted-average basic shares Grab discloses for the quarter:

Market cap → enterprise value	Q4 2025
Share price (period-end)	$4.99
Shares outstanding	~4.089B
Market capitalization	~$20.4B
Total liabilities	n/a (net cash basis used)
Less: net cash liquidity	$5.4B
Enterprise value	~$15.0B

Market cap is down from ~$24.6B at Q3's close; EV is down from ~$19.3B three months ago. Net cash liquidity is up from $5.3 billion last quarter (see Key Financial Metrics above).

Peer-multiple sanity check	Q3 2025	Q4 2025	Change
Enterprise value	~$19.3B	~$15.0B	✅ down
EV/Revenue (annualized run-rate)	~5.5x	~4.2x	✅ down
EV/Revenue (FY guidance/actual)	~5.7x (FY guidance)	~4.5x (FY2025 actual)	✅ down
EV/On-Demand GMV (annualized run-rate)	~0.83x	~0.62x	✅ down

Every multiple compressed materially this quarter, the opposite direction of the last several quarters' re-rating. Updating the DCF built last quarter with the new $290 million trailing Adjusted Free Cash Flow base (versus $283 million three months ago - a much smaller step-up than recent quarters, since this trailing figure now equals the full FY2025 total), the same 13% discount rate, and five-year fade paths informed by management's own new three-year outlook ($1.5 billion Adjusted EBITDA and 80% cash conversion by 2028, implying roughly $1.2 billion of Adjusted Free Cash Flow in year three of this model):

Scenario	Year 1-5 Adjusted FCF path	Terminal growth	Implied equity value per share
Current (Q4 2025 close)	— actual market price, for reference	—	$4.99
Bear	$220M → $420M	2%	~$2.11
Base	$300M → $900M	3%	~$3.04
Bull	$380M → $1,300M	4%	~$4.00

The bull case now lands roughly 20% below the $4.99 close, versus Q3 2025's 45% gap against the $6.02 close - the first quarter this blog has tracked where the gap narrowed rather than widened, and it happened because the stock fell while the underlying paths above are modestly higher than last quarter's (reflecting the new 2028 targets), not because the model got more conservative. Net cash liquidity also moved in the model's favor for the first time in three quarters, rising to $5.4 billion. This remains a directional model, not a definitive one, as noted every quarter it's been run here - but this is the first quarter where the market's own move and the DCF's verdict pointed the same direction instead of diverging further.

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