Two Trends That Flipped in the Same Quarter
The Q2 2024 post closed on two open threads: whether deposit growth outpacing loan growth was a one-quarter fluke or a real pattern, and whether the Sharia Business Unit's shrinking profit - down 36.3% quarter-over-quarter even as its book collapsed - was the start of the unit fading into irrelevance. Q3 2024 answers both, in opposite directions.
On funding, the pattern held and widened. Total customer deposits grew Rp2,133,993 million (+14.4% quarter-over-quarter), from Rp14,809,024 million to Rp16,943,017 million, while gross loans and Sharia financing grew a smaller Rp1,512,315 million (+9.6% quarter-over-quarter), from Rp15,743,601 million to Rp17,255,916 million. The gap between the two growth rates - 4.8 percentage points - is now roughly double Q2's 2.4-point gap. The cash flow statement shows what that funding surplus did: net cash flows generated from operating activities reached Rp1,913,759 million for the nine months ended 30 September 2024, against just Rp383,718 million in 9M 2023 - very close to a 5x increase. Capital expenditure (fixed and intangible asset acquisitions) was Rp571,428 million, up from Rp488,793 million in 9M 2023 - a small fraction of the operating cash flow generated this period. Isolating Q3 2024 alone (subtracting the already-disclosed H1 2024 figures) implies standalone Q3 operating cash flow of roughly Rp1,365,267 million - nearly 3x Q2's already-strong Rp474,669 million.
On the Sharia unit, the story broke the other way from what the last two posts flagged. The financing book that fell 64.0% in Q1 and another 52.9% in Q2 - a cumulative 83.1% collapse in six months - stood at Rp72,532 million at 30 September 2024, essentially unchanged from Rp72,546 million at 30 June 2024 (down just 0.02%). The relentless quarterly shrinkage this backfill has tracked since FY2023 simply stopped. And instead of the sequential profit decline the Q2 2024 post flagged as a yellow finding, the unit's standalone Q3 net income rose to approximately Rp10,901 million, up 21.2% from Q2's implied Rp8,995 million - even as its book stayed flat. The unit's own disclosed Financing to Deposit Ratio» is now just 8.27%, from 112.00% a year earlier, and it's still profitable on a fraction of the balance sheet it once carried.
The Prescription
Bank Jago should treat this quarter's cash flow strength as the thing worth protecting, not the thing to spend down. Deposits have now outpaced loans for two straight quarters, and the resulting operating cash flow - roughly 5x its 9M 2023 level - gives the bank real optionality it didn't have when Q1 2024's funding gap left operating cash flow unable to cover the quarter's capital spending. The bank should keep pricing new lending and deposit products in a way that preserves this surplus rather than chasing loan growth back up to match deposit growth exactly, which is what produced Q1's near-zero cushion in the first place. The one thing it should stop doing is treating the Sharia Business Unit as a pure wind-down. Its financing book has now sat flat for a full quarter after an 83% collapse, and its standalone profit just grew for the first time in this backfill's recent run - management needs to say plainly whether this is a deliberate floor (a smaller, sustainable Sharia book) or a pause before further shrinkage, because a reader can't currently tell the difference from the numbers alone, and the ambiguity itself is a disclosure gap worth closing.
Key Financial Metrics
9M 2024 vs. 9M 2023 - PT Bank Jago Tbk
FX: IDR 15,170.60 = USD 1 (30 September 2024 close, also the period-end trading day). The published statements for this period report the Bank on a standalone basis only - Bank Jago has no consolidated subsidiaries, consistent with every prior post in this backfill.
| Metric | 9M 2024 (IDR) | 9M 2024 (USD) | 9M 2023 (IDR) | YoY |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net interest and Sharia income ("Net Revenue" equivalent) | Rp1,077,136M | ~$71.00M | Rp1,209,242M | ⚠️ -10.9%, driven by the Sharia unit's interest income collapsing further and rising interest expense as time deposits grew |
| Impairment losses on financial assets | -Rp169,547M | -~$11.18M | -Rp348,440M | ✅ -51.3%, tracking the NPL improvement below |
| Operating income | Rp111,093M | ~$7.32M | Rp62,735M | ✅ +77.1% |
| Income before income tax | Rp110,059M | ~$7.25M | Rp69,997M | ✅ +57.2% |
| Income tax expense (deferred) | -Rp24,223M | -~$1.60M | -Rp19,703M | +23.0%, an expense both years |
| Net income for the period | Rp85,836M | ~$5.66M | Rp50,294M | ✅ +70.7% - see above for the conventional-vs-Sharia split |
| Earnings per share (full amount, basic and diluted) | Rp6.19 | ~$0.0004 | Rp3.63 | ✅ +70.5% |
Net cash flows generated from operating activities were Rp1,913,759 million (9M 2023: Rp383,718 million) - very close to a 5x increase, driven by deposit growth continuing to outpace loan growth; capital expenditure (fixed and intangible assets acquired) was Rp571,428 million (9M 2023: Rp488,793 million) - against Rp3,880,305 million (~$255.78M) of period-end cash and cash equivalents. Operating income (the bank's own regulatory-format figure, netting impairment losses against revenue) is the closest bank equivalent to Adjusted EBITDA; the concept itself doesn't meaningfully apply to a deposit-taking institution.
| Balance sheet metric | Sep 2024 (IDR) | Sep 2024 (USD) | Dec 2023 (IDR) | YTD Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total Assets | Rp26,849,496M | ~$1,769.84M | Rp21,295,840M | ✅ +26.1% |
| Loans and Sharia financing (gross) | Rp17,255,916M | ~$1,137.46M | Rp13,020,051M | ✅ +32.5% |
| Total customer deposits (current, savings, time) | Rp16,943,017M | ~$1,116.83M | Rp12,067,195M | ✅ +40.4% |
| Total Liabilities | Rp18,381,652M | ~$1,211.66M | Rp12,939,048M | +42.1%, tracking balance sheet growth |
| Total Equity | Rp8,467,844M | ~$558.17M | Rp8,356,792M | +1.3%, still essentially flat |
Operating cash flow ran roughly 5x its year-ago level - the strongest cash-generation quarter in this backfill. The headline profit growth (net income up 70.7% YoY) is real, but so is the reason: deposits are still growing meaningfully faster than loans, which is a funding-mix choice management is making each quarter, not a law of nature for this bank.
Key Operational Metrics
Ratios below are sourced from PT Bank Jago Tbk's own published financial ratios (30 September 2024 vs 30 September 2023) and its "9M24 Results Update" investor presentation.
- CASA ratio»: 56.7% (Sep 2024, calculated from Rp9,599,803M current + savings deposits ÷ Rp16,943,017M total deposits, matching the presentation's rounded 57%) vs. 61.2% (Jun 2024, per the Q2 2024 post) vs. 73% (Sep 2023, per the investor presentation) - a fourth straight quarter of decline from September 2023's 73% peak, as time deposits grew 27.7% quarter-over-quarter against CASA's 5.9%.
- Loan-to-Deposit Ratio»: 101.78% (Sep 2024, per the bank's own filed ratios) vs. 105.74% (Jun 2024, per the Q2 2024 post) vs. 105.33% (Sep 2023) - improved for a second straight quarter, consistent with deposits continuing to outgrow loans.
- NIM»: 7.10% (Sep 2024 YTD, per the bank's own filed ratios; the 3Q24-only figure in the investor presentation is 6.7%) vs. 9.97% (Sep 2023 YTD) - a seventh straight quarter of decline on the presentation's own single-quarter series, which now runs 9.0% (3Q23) → 8.0% (4Q23) → 7.5% (1Q24) → 7.2% (2Q24) → 6.7% (3Q24).
- NPL»: 0.23% gross / 0.00% net (Sep 2024, per the bank's own filed ratios) vs. 0.38%/0.01% (Jun 2024, per the Q2 2024 post) vs. 1.15%/0.14% (Sep 2023) - a new backfill-best for a seventh straight quarter running, even as the loan book grew 9.6% quarter-over-quarter.
- CAR»: 45.56% (Sep 2024, per the bank's own filed ratios) vs. 50.28% (Jun 2024) vs. 71.33% (Sep 2023) - still falling every quarter as capital gets deployed into risk-weighted loans, now down to roughly 4.6x OJK's 10% minimum requirement.
- ROE» / ROA»: 1.73% / 0.62% (Sep 2024 YTD, per the bank's own filed ratios) vs. 1.50%/0.57% (Jun 2024 YTD) vs. 0.94%/0.50% (Sep 2023 YTD) - both improved YoY and QoQ, the fastest pace of improvement in this backfill's recent quarters, though still far below what the stock's book-value premium (see Target Valuation Range) would imply is sustainable.
- Cost-to-Income»: 78.22% (Sep 2024 YTD, per the bank's own filed ratios) vs. 78.61% (Jun 2024 YTD) vs. 69.43% (Sep 2023 YTD) - still worse YoY, but the investor presentation's own quarterly series shows Q3 2024 alone flat at 77%, same as Q2.
- Cost of Funds (period-end, per the investor presentation): 3.4% (Sep 2024) vs. 3.1% (Jun 2024) vs. 2.9% (Sep 2023) - the first increase since this metric flattened at 3.1% in Q4 2023, consistent with time deposits growing far faster than CASA this quarter.
- Undrawn loan commitments: Rp3,585,644M (Sep 2024: Rp1,036,373M committed + Rp2,549,271M uncommitted) vs. Rp2,973,369M (Jun 2024) - up 20.6%, a third straight quarter of growth in undrawn commitments since Q1 2024's one-off decline.
- KYC-verified digital banking and lending customers: 14.1+ million (Sep 2024, per the investor presentation), up from 12.5+ million at Jun 2024.
- Headcount and branch network: still not disclosed in the filed financial statements' regulatory format, continuing the pattern flagged in every prior post in this backfill back to 9M 2023.
- Related-party loan concentration: not disclosed in this quarter's bare regulatory-format filing, the same gap flagged in the Q2 2024 post - the borrower-level breakdown from the FY2023 annual report remains the most recent confirmed figure.
The Sharia Unit's Financing Book Finally Stopped Shrinking
The Sharia Business Unit's financing book, which fell 52.9% in Q2 2024 alone to Rp72,546 million, barely moved this quarter: it stood at Rp72,532 million at 30 September 2024, a change of just -0.02% quarter-over-quarter. After falling 64.0% in Q1 2024 and 52.9% in Q2 2024, this is the first quarter in this backfill where the book didn't meaningfully shrink at all.
The profit trend reversed alongside it. The Sharia Business Unit's own disclosed 9M 2024 net income was Rp34,010 million, up 15.9% YoY from Rp29,354 million in 9M 2023. Backing out H1 2024's already-disclosed Rp23,109 million implies standalone Q3 2024 Sharia net income of approximately Rp10,901 million, up 21.2% quarter-over-quarter from Q2's implied Rp8,995 million - the first sequential increase since this backfill started tracking the unit's standalone quarters. The unit's own disclosed non-performing financing ratio held at a low level (2.00% gross / 0.00% net at Sep 2024, vs 3.30%/0.99% a year earlier), and its Financing to Deposit Ratio» fell further to 8.27%, from 112.00% a year earlier - a fraction of what it was funding a year ago, now essentially stable rather than actively shrinking. Whether this is a deliberate floor for a permanently smaller Sharia book or just a one-quarter pause before further wind-down isn't something the filed statements say either way - see The Prescription.
The Stock Rallied 26.6% This Quarter - Still Down 53.8% Over Two Years
Bank Jago's shares closed at Rp3,050 on 30 September 2024 (a trading day, no nearest-day adjustment needed), up 26.6% from Rp2,410 three months earlier - the third straight monthly gain, following Rp2,700 in July and Rp2,870 in August. No stock split has occurred at any point since the company's IPO, so Rp3,050 is the actual nominal price quoted on the IDX at the time. Versus a year earlier (30 September 2023, Rp2,020), the stock is up 51.0% YoY. Zooming out to the full two-year window this backfill tracks, the stock closed at Rp6,600 in September 2022 and has fallen 53.8% since - a smaller two-year decline than the Q2 2024 post's 73.7% figure, both because this quarter's rally helped and because September 2022's starting price was itself already well down from the backfill's earlier peaks. This is the first genuinely sustained three-month rally recorded anywhere in this backfill, arriving in the same quarter as the strongest cash-flow and profit numbers this backfill has tracked - a rare case where the stock and the fundamentals moved the same direction at the same time.
Beyond the Usual
The Sharia unit's 83% collapse in its financing book stalled out this quarter
The Sharia Business Unit's financing book fell 64.0% in Q1 2024 and another 52.9% in Q2 2024 - a cumulative 83.1% decline in two quarters - then essentially stopped moving in Q3, down just 0.02% to Rp72,532 million. Every prior post in this backfill has framed the unit's trajectory as an active, accelerating wind-down. This quarter is the first evidence that the wind-down may have found a floor rather than continuing toward zero, but the filed statements give no forward guidance either way, and a single flat quarter after a multi-quarter collapse isn't yet proof of a stable base - it's a trend worth confirming or breaking next quarter.
Cost of funds rose for the first time since this backfill's tracking began, as time deposits outgrew CASA nearly 5x
Cost of funds (period-end, per the investor presentation) rose to 3.4% at 30 September 2024, from a flat 3.1% held across the three prior quarters. The driver is visible directly in the balance sheet: time deposits grew 27.7% quarter-over-quarter (Rp5,749 billion to Rp7,343 billion) while CASA grew just 5.9% (Rp9,060 billion to Rp9,600 billion), pulling the CASA ratio down to 56.7% from 61.2%. This is the funding-mix cost of the deposit growth that's driving this quarter's strong operating cash flow - a genuine tradeoff, not a red flag on its own, but the first quarter this backfill has recorded where growing the deposit base got measurably more expensive.
Undrawn lending commitments grew for a third straight quarter
The Q2 2024 post noted that undrawn loan commitments reversed Q1 2024's only-ever quarterly decline, rising 24.5% to Rp2,973,369 million. That growth continued: undrawn commitments rose a further 20.6% to Rp3,585,644 million this quarter, with the uncommitted portion (Rp2,549,271 million) again growing faster than the committed portion (Rp1,036,373 million). Read together with continued strong deposit growth, the bank is building lending headroom faster than it's converting it into drawn loans.
A small MESOP share issuance continued at close to the program's original strike price
Issued and fully paid-in capital rose from Rp1,385,656 million to Rp1,385,701 million between 30 June 2024 and 30 September 2024 - a Rp45 million increase that, at the bank's Rp100 par value per share, implies approximately 450,000 new shares issued. The cash flow statement shows cumulative "Proceeds from shares issued" of Rp1,636 million for 9M 2024, up from H1 2024's already-disclosed Rp666 million; the Rp970 million difference implies a Q3-only average price of roughly Rp2,156 per share, still close to the Rp2,150 strike the H1 2023 post reported for the bank's first MESOP grant. This is the second straight quarter this backfill has recorded actual share issuance from the option program, not just an accrued expense line.
Target Valuation Range
Market cap Rp42.26 trillion (~$2.79 billion), ~4.99x P/B, ~369.5x P/E. Bottom line: still significantly overvalued on both an earnings and a book basis, and the gap widened this quarter as the stock's 26.6% rally outran a nearly flat book value.
Bank Jago's shares closed at Rp3,050 on 30 September 2024, up 26.6% from Rp2,410 three months earlier (see above). Issued and fully paid-in capital of Rp1,385,701 million at a Rp100 par value implies approximately 13,857,010,000 shares outstanding (13,856,560,000 at 30 June 2024 plus the ~450,000 MESOP-related shares issued this quarter, see Beyond the Usual), for a market capitalization of approximately Rp42.26 trillion (~$2.79 billion).
| Market cap → book value | Q3 2024 |
|---|---|
| Share price (period-end) | Rp3,050 |
| Shares outstanding | 13,857,010,000 |
| Market capitalization | Rp42.26 trillion (~$2.79 billion) |
| Total equity (book value) | Rp8,467,844M |
| Book value per share | Rp611.09 |
| Peer-multiple sanity check | Q2 2024 | Q3 2024 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/B | 3.96x | 4.99x | up |
| P/E | 333.7x | 369.5x | up |
P/B»: ~4.99x, using book value» per share of Rp611.09 (Rp8,467,844M total equity ÷ 13,857,010,000 shares) - up sharply from Q2 2024's ~3.96x, since this quarter's price rally (+26.6%) ran far ahead of book value's 0.52% growth. P/E»: annualizing 9M 2024's basic EPS of Rp6.19 (×4/3, since this is a nine-month cumulative filing), the implied multiple is roughly 369.5x - a still-small and rapidly growing earnings base makes this figure directional rather than precise, the same caveat every prior post in this backfill has given. A full DCF still isn't appropriate, for the same reason every prior post in this backfill has given: this quarter's own numbers show a business whose cash generation and Sharia-unit trajectory both just changed direction within a single quarter, making any long-run growth assumption more speculative than usual right now. The peer-multiple read stays the honest one, and both multiples remain far above what a bank earning a sub-1% ROA» would typically command - this quarter's genuinely stronger fundamentals (cash flow, profit growth, credit quality) narrowed that gap on the earnings side, but the stock's own 26.6% rally more than offset it on the book-value side, leaving the overvaluation picture worse, not better, than three months ago.
PT Bank Jago Tbk's published financial statements for the nine months ended 30 September 2024 (with 30 September 2023 and 31 December 2023 comparatives) and its "9M24 Results Update" investor presentation.