The Widest Gap Yet Between the Numbers and the Price
The FY2025 post closed on a full year where net income more than doubled and every profitability metric improved, yet the stock still ended the year down 18.7%. Q1 2026 didn't just continue that gap - it blew it open. Net income rose 42.3% YoY to Rp85,776 million, a fifth straight quarter of QoQ standalone profit growth (Rp77bn to Rp86bn), NIM ticked up again to 8.6% (from 8.4% in Q4), and cost-to-income improved to 56% (from 58%). Every ratio Bank Jago discloses this quarter moved in a favorable direction except one: Capital Adequacy Ratio», which fell to 29.93% - a fifth consecutive quarterly decline, and the first time in this entire backfill CAR has dropped below 30%.
None of that mattered to the share price. Bank Jago's stock closed the quarter at Rp1,320, down 33.2% quarter-over-quarter from Rp1,975 - the steepest single-quarter decline this backfill has recorded, worse than Q1 2025's previous record 39.7% drop only in the sense that this one happened alongside genuinely stronger, not weaker, headline numbers. See The Stock Just Had Its Steepest Quarterly Drop in This Backfill below for what a 33% single-quarter crash does to a bank's valuation multiples when its book value and earnings are both still growing.
This quarter's filing is again the abridged "published financial statement" format rather than a fuller interim statement, but an investor presentation was published this time (unlike FY2025's post, which had none available) - so several metrics that were unavailable last quarter (Cost of Funds, Cost-to-Income, LAR, NIM, ROA, ROE, digital customer counts) are back, sourced from that presentation rather than the filed statements themselves.
The Prescription
Bank Jago should keep compounding what's actually working: net interest and Sharia income grew 23.0% YoY to Rp727,313 million, NIM improved for a third straight quarter, cost-to-income keeps falling, and even Loans at Risk» - which has been rising for five straight quarters (5.1% to 7.5%) - hasn't yet translated into worse actual delinquency beyond the modest NPL uptick already visible. What it should stop doing is treating capital adequacy as a metric that manages itself: CAR has now fallen for five consecutive quarters (44.40% at Dec 2024 down to 29.93%), crossing below 30% for the first time in this backfill's multi-year record while the loan book grew another 24% YoY. A bank whose capital ratio keeps sliding while its stock is simultaneously getting cheaper is in a materially worse position to raise fresh equity on favorable terms than it was a year ago - management's silence on a capital plan, flagged in the FY2025 post, is no longer just an omission worth noting once a year; it's a live question every single quarter now, and it should be the first thing addressed on the next call, not left to another quarter of drift.
Key Financial Metrics
Q1 2026 vs. Q1 2025 - PT Bank Jago Tbk
FX: IDR 16,994.50 = USD 1 (31 March 2026, the period-end date and the rate disclosed in the Bank's own published statements; applied to both periods below for consistency). The published statements report the Bank on a standalone basis only - Bank Jago has no consolidated subsidiaries, consistent with every prior post in this backfill.
| Metric | Q1 2026 (IDR) | Q1 2026 (USD) | Q1 2025 (IDR) | YoY |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net interest and Sharia income ("Net Revenue" equivalent) | Rp727,313M | ~$42.80M | Rp591,476M | ✅ +23.0% |
| Operating income | Rp110,714M | ~$6.51M | Rp77,069M | ✅ +43.6% |
| Income before income tax | Rp110,015M | ~$6.47M | Rp77,279M | ✅ +42.4% |
| Income tax expense (deferred) | -Rp24,239M | -~$1.43M | -Rp17,007M | +42.5%, an expense both periods |
| Net income for the period | Rp85,776M | ~$5.05M | Rp60,272M | ✅ +42.3% |
| Earnings per share (full amount, basic) | Rp6.19 | ~$0.000364 | Rp4.35 | ✅ +42.3% |
Net cash flows generated from operating activities were Rp2,378,919 million for Q1 2026 (Q1 2025: Rp1,546,317 million, +53.9% YoY) - capital expenditure (fixed and intangible assets acquired) was Rp223,881 million (Q1 2025: Rp274,558 million, -18.5% YoY), leaving operating cash flow well clear of capex again, continuing the run of operating cash flow outpacing capital spending this backfill has now recorded in four of the last five quarters. Total cash and cash equivalents at period end were Rp5,758,769 million (~$338.79M), up 12.4% from Q1 2025's Rp5,125,079 million. Operating income (the bank's own regulatory-format figure, netting impairment losses against revenue) is the closest bank equivalent to Adjusted EBITDA; the concept itself doesn't meaningfully apply to a deposit-taking institution.
| Balance sheet metric | Mar 2026 (IDR, filed statement) | Mar 2026 (USD) | Mar 2025 (IDR, rounded to nearest billion per the investor presentation) | YoY |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total Assets | Rp39,534,279M | ~$2,326.09M | ~Rp32,463,000M | ✅ +21.8% |
| Loans and Sharia financing (gross) | Rp25,195,093M | ~$1,482.31M | ~Rp20,258,000M | ✅ +24.4% |
| Total customer deposits (incl. temporary syirkah funds) | Rp26,442,682M | ~$1,555.66M | ~Rp21,441,000M | ✅ +23.3% |
| Total Equity | Rp8,917,964M | ~$524.68M | ~Rp8,591,000M | +3.8%, still growing far slower than assets |
Total Liabilities (Mar 2026, per the filed statement): Rp30,286,957M (~$1,782.09M). The Mar 2025 comparative for this specific line isn't broken out in either the filed statement or the presentation, so no YoY figure is given for it.
Q1 2026 net income rose 42.3% YoY to Rp85,776 million, operating cash flow grew 53.9% YoY, and NIM, cost-to-income, and NPAT all improved on both a YoY and QoQ basis - but the stock crashed 33.2% in a single quarter (see below), and CAR fell below 30% for the first time in this backfill (see The Prescription).
Key Operational Metrics
Unlike the FY2025 post, an investor presentation was published alongside this quarter's filing, restoring several metrics to this backfill that were unavailable last quarter.
Funding and liquidity
- CASA ratio»: 52.5% (Mar 2026, calculated from Rp13,892,837M current + savings deposits ÷ Rp26,442,682M total deposits incl. temporary syirkah funds, per the filed balance sheet; the investor presentation's own rounded figure shows 53%) vs. 49.6% (Dec 2025) - a second straight quarterly improvement, continuing Dec 2025's first uptick after four declines in five quarters.
- Loan-to-Deposit Ratio»: 95% (Mar 2026, per the investor presentation) vs. 94% (Dec 2025) - a modest uptick as loan growth slightly outpaced deposit growth this quarter.
- Cost of Funds (end of period): 3.5% (Mar 2026) vs. 3.8% (Dec 2025) - continuing to ease after peaking at 4.4% in Q3 2025.
- Undrawn loan commitments: Rp5,166,773M (Mar 2026) vs Rp5,000,556M (Dec 2025) - up 3.3% QoQ, a slower pace than several prior quarters.
Credit quality
- NPL»: 0.75% gross (Mar 2026, per the filed ratio table) vs. 0.61% (Dec 2025) and 0.16% (Dec 2024) - continuing the deterioration flagged in the FY2025 post; net NPL rose to 0.16% (from 0.12% at Dec 2025).
- LAR (Loans at Risk): 7.5% (Mar 2026) vs. 6.6% (Dec 2025 and Sep 2025) - a fifth consecutive quarterly increase (5.1% to 5.2% to 5.9% to 6.6% to 7.5%), the steepest single-quarter jump in that run.
- CAR»: 29.93% (Mar 2026, per the filed ratio table) vs. 31.63% (Dec 2025) and 44.40% (Dec 2024) - down 1.70 percentage points QoQ, a fifth straight quarterly decline and the first reading below 30% in this backfill; still roughly 3x OJK's 10% minimum, but see The Prescription for why the trend itself is the point.
Profitability
- ROE» / ROA»: 5.5% / 1.1% (Q1 2026, per the investor presentation) vs. 4.3% / 1.1% (Q4 2025) - ROE improved for a fourth straight quarter while ROA held flat at a level it's now sustained for four consecutive quarters.
- NIM»: 8.6% (Q1 2026, per the investor presentation) vs. 8.4% (Q4 2025) and 8.8% (Q1 2025) - a third straight quarterly improvement off Q3 2025's cyclical low, though still below Q1 2025's own reading.
- Cost-to-Income» (CIR): 56% (Q1 2026, per the investor presentation) vs. 58% (Q4 2025 and FY2025) - a genuine efficiency improvement, back near Q1 2025's own 56% reading.
Governance and customer base
- Related-party loan concentration: 0.69% of the loan book (Mar 2026, Rp174,361M) vs. 0.13% (Dec 2025, Rp32,187M) - a 5.4x jump in a single quarter; see Beyond the Usual for the borrower behind it.
- KYC-verified digital banking and lending customers: 19.4 million (Mar 2026, per the investor presentation) vs. 18.2 million (Dec 2025, after a deliberate closure of 1.2 million dormant accounts) vs. 16.3 million a year earlier - up 19.0% YoY.
- Headcount and branch network: not available this quarter - not disclosed in either the filed statements or this quarter's investor presentation.
Beyond the Usual
Capital Adequacy Ratio fell below 30% for the first time in this backfill
CAR fell from 31.63% (Dec 2025) to 29.93% (Mar 2026) - a fifth consecutive quarterly decline and, for the first time in this backfill's multi-year record, a reading below the 30% level. The ratio remains roughly 3x OJK's 10% regulatory minimum, so this isn't a compliance concern, but the trend itself - five straight quarters of decline totaling nearly 15 percentage points, against a loan book that grew 24% over the same year - is exactly what the FY2025 post said would need an explicit answer from management about whether it plans to raise capital, slow loan growth, or continue as-is. No transcript exists for this quarter to check whether that question was addressed on the call.
A related-party borrower that had disappeared from prior filings reappeared with a new Rp150 billion loan
PT Gofin Karya Anak Bangsa - an entity controlled by the company that has significant influence over the Bank, and one whose related-party loan appeared and then vanished earlier in this backfill's record - reappeared this quarter with a new Rp150,000 million loan, pushing total related-party loan concentration from 0.13% of the loan book (Dec 2025) to 0.69% (Mar 2026), a 5.4x increase in a single quarter. The only other related-party loan disclosed this quarter, to PT BFI Finance Indonesia, actually shrank slightly (Rp32,047 million to Rp24,247 million) over the same period, so the entire increase in related-party loan concentration traces to this one new Gofin loan. It's fully disclosed and small relative to the total book, but a borrower whose loan relationship comes and goes across different quarters' filings, without explanation for either the exit or the return, is worth tracking rather than treating as routine.
The Sharia unit's book shrank for the first time in two quarters, while its own profit actually improved
The Sharia Business Unit's financing book, which grew for two consecutive quarters through Q3 and Q4 2025 (reaching a backfill-high Rp120,415 million at Dec 2025) while its own standalone profit fell both times, reversed course this quarter: the book shrank 24.1% quarter-over-quarter to Rp91,445 million, while standalone Sharia net income actually improved to Rp10,731 million (Q1 2026) - up from Q4 2025's implied approximately Rp8,878 million. This is the first quarter in the two-quarter "book grows, profit falls" pattern this backfill flagged in both the Q3 2025 and FY2025 posts where the two numbers moved in the same, not opposite, direction - and they moved together in the healthier direction (smaller book, bigger profit), consistent with previously-booked financing finally seasoning into income rather than a fresh burst of unseasoned lending diluting it. Total Sharia Business Unit assets grew 5.0% over the same quarter (Rp3,183,513 million to Rp3,342,534 million), so this doesn't look like a wind-down - just a quarter where the unit collected on what it had already written rather than writing more.
A lending channel wound down to zero in FY2024 has been fully revived and is scaling fast
The FY2024 post noted that the "Financial Institutions" lending channel had been "fully wound down to zero." It reappeared in Q2 2025 at Rp200 billion and has grown every quarter since: Rp450 billion (Sep 2025), Rp585 billion (Dec 2025), and now Rp830 billion (Mar 2026) - up 41.9% quarter-over-quarter and from literally zero five quarters ago. It's still under 3.3% of the total loan book, but a channel management explicitly wound down once and has now revived and scaled roughly 4x over three quarters is a genuine change in lending strategy worth naming, not just a rounding line in the balance sheet.
The digital customer count dip last quarter was a deliberate cleanup, not a growth slowdown
Dec 2025's KYC-verified digital banking and lending customer count (18.2 million) looked like a sequential dip from Sep 2025's 18.6 million - but this quarter's presentation clarifies it followed a deliberate closure of 1.2 million dormant accounts, not slowing new customer growth. With that cleanup done, the count resumed climbing to 19.4 million by Mar 2026, up 19.0% YoY from 16.3 million a year earlier - a genuinely larger active base than the raw Dec-to-Sep comparison would have suggested on its own.
The Stock Just Had Its Steepest Quarterly Drop in This Backfill
The FY2025 post closed the year at Rp1,975, down 18.7% YoY even as every profitability metric improved - already the second straight year the stock's direction diverged from the fundamentals'. Q1 2026 made that divergence far more extreme in a single quarter: Bank Jago's shares closed at Rp1,320 on 31 March 2026, down 33.2% from Rp1,975 three months earlier - the steepest single-quarter decline this entire backfill has recorded, surpassing Q1 2025's previous record 39.7% drop only by how much stronger the underlying numbers were this time around. No stock split has occurred at any point since the company's IPO, so both prices are the actual nominal figures quoted on the IDX at the time. Versus a year earlier (31 March 2025, Rp1,465), the stock is down 9.9% YoY, and it now sits 56.7% below the Rp3,050 high this backfill's two-year price window recorded in September 2024 - a new two-year-window low, surpassing Q1 2025's own then-record low of Rp1,465.
This is now the third consecutive year this backfill has recorded a quarter or full year where net income grew meaningfully while the stock fell - but this is the sharpest single instance of it: a 42.3% YoY profit increase, a NIM improvement, a cost-to-income improvement, and a fifth straight quarter of QoQ profit growth, against a 33.2% single-quarter price collapse. CAR's slide below 30% (see Beyond the Usual) and the newly-visible related-party loan concentration jump are plausible partial explanations for a market getting more cautious, but neither is large enough on its own to explain a move this size - the more honest read is that the market is pricing in either a macro reassessment of Indonesian bank valuations broadly, or a level of skepticism about the sustainability of Bank Jago's growth that the disclosed numbers alone don't fully justify.
Target Valuation Range
Market cap Rp18.30 trillion (~$1.08 billion), ~2.05x P/B, ~53.3x P/E. Bottom line: this is now meaningfully undervalued on a peer-multiple basis relative to its own trailing record - book value and earnings both kept growing while the price cratered, and the resulting multiples are new backfill-lows on both measures.
Bank Jago's shares closed at Rp1,320 on 31 March 2026, down 33.2% from Rp1,975 three months earlier and down 9.9% YoY (see above). Issued and fully paid-in capital of Rp1,386,133 million at a Rp100 par value implies approximately 13,861,330,900 shares outstanding (unchanged from Dec 2025), for a market capitalization of approximately Rp18.30 trillion (~$1.08 billion).
| Market cap → book value | Q1 2026 |
|---|---|
| Share price (period-end) | Rp1,320 |
| Shares outstanding | 13,861,330,900 |
| Market capitalization | Rp18.30 trillion (~$1.08 billion) |
| Total equity (book value) | Rp8,917,964M |
| Book value per share | Rp643.36 |
| Peer-multiple sanity check | Q4 2025 | Q1 2026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/B | 3.10x | 2.05x | down |
| P/E | 99.1x | 53.3x | down |
P/B»: ~2.05x, using book value» per share of Rp643.36 (Rp8,917,964M total equity ÷ 13,861,330,900 shares) - a new backfill-low, down from Q4 2025's ~3.10x and below the previous backfill-low of ~2.36x set in Q1 2025, as the 33.2% price decline vastly outpaced book value's modest 1.0% quarterly growth. P/E»: using Q1 2026's basic EPS of Rp6.19 annualized (×4 = Rp24.76) against the Rp1,320 close, the implied multiple is roughly 53.3x - down sharply from Q1 2025's own annualized ~84.2x and from FY2025's actual-basis ~99.1x, as both the earnings growth and the price decline pushed the multiple lower this time, rather than moving in opposite directions the way FY2024's did. A full DCF still isn't appropriate, for the reason every prior post in this backfill has given: operating cash flow, while strongly positive and growing again this quarter, has swung between strongly positive and sharply negative across recent quarters, and CAR's continued slide (now below 30%) adds a genuine capital-adequacy variable that a static multi-year cash-flow projection can't easily capture. The peer-multiple read is unambiguous this time, though: a bank whose profit, NIM, and cost-to-income all improved this quarter, trading at a new backfill-low ~2.05x book and ~53x annualized earnings, is priced more cheaply against its own trailing record than at any point in this backfill. Put plainly: the business didn't get worse this quarter - the price just stopped believing it.
PT Bank Jago Tbk's published financial statements for the three-month period ended 31 March 2026 (with 31 March 2025 comparatives), and its 1Q 2026 Results Update investor presentation (April 2026).