The Fourth Quarter Undid Both of Q3's Big Stories
The Q3 2024 post closed on two threads: whether the Sharia Business Unit's financing book - after collapsing 83.1% across Q1 and Q2 - had found a genuine floor after a flat third quarter, and whether the stock's third straight monthly gain (a 26.6% rally to Rp3,050) marked the first time this backfill had recorded the stock and the fundamentals moving the same direction. The full-year numbers answer both questions, and neither answer is the one Q3 suggested.
The Sharia financing book, which stood at Rp72,532 million at 30 September 2024, fell to Rp57,442 million at 31 December 2024 - a further 20.8% decline in the fourth quarter alone. Whatever paused in Q3 didn't hold: the Q3 2024 post's Prescription asked management to say plainly whether the flat quarter was a deliberate floor or a pause before further shrinkage - the filed statements still don't say so explicitly, but the number itself now answers the question. Yet the unit's own annual net income tells a very different story: Sharia Business Unit net income for the full year was Rp74,860 million, up 113.9% YoY from Rp35,002 million in FY2023 - more than doubling even as its financing book kept shrinking. The unit's total assets grew 47.7% in the same year (Rp1,648,603 million to Rp2,434,917 million), because it kept redirecting the proceeds of its shrinking loan book into marketable securities - a position that grew from Rp980,243 million to Rp2,041,989 million, continuing the pattern first flagged in the FY2023 post. This is a unit earning more each year from a smaller and smaller book funded by a growing pile of securities - profitable, but structurally further from being a lending business than it was twelve months ago.
The stock told the opposite story from its own Q3. Bank Jago's shares closed 31 December 2024 at Rp2,430, down 20.3% from Rp3,050 three months earlier - erasing all of Q3's 26.6% rally and then some. Against 31 December 2023's Rp2,900, the stock is down 16.2% for the full year, even though net income, operating income, ROA, ROE, and NPL all improved. Bank Jago's own investor presentation headlines "FY24 NPBT increased 92% YoY to IDR179bn" - a real number, and one the filed statements confirm - but a reader relying on that framing alone would have no idea the market spent the year pricing the stock lower, not higher, against a genuinely better business. See The Stock Gave Back Its Entire Rally below.
The Prescription
Bank Jago should keep the underwriting discipline that just delivered its best-ever credit quality: gross NPL» fell to a new backfill-best 0.16% even as the loan book grew 36.0% YoY, and Q4 alone saw ROA» cross 1.0% for the first time in this backfill - a milestone every prior post's valuation section has measured the stock against ("a sub-1% ROA bank trading at multiples of book"). That threshold just moved, and management should say so explicitly rather than let it pass as one line in a ratio table. What it should stop doing is leaving the Sharia Business Unit's trajectory ambiguous for a second straight quarter. The unit resumed shrinking in Q4 right after a quarter that looked like a floor, and the annual report - unlike the FY2023 report before it - still offers no forward guidance on whether this is a permanently smaller, securities-heavy Sharia business by design or a wind-down still finding its actual bottom. A unit that just posted 113.9% profit growth on a shrinking book deserves a real answer, not another quarter of readers guessing from the balance sheet alone.
Key Financial Metrics
FY2024 vs. FY2023 - PT Bank Jago Tbk
FX: IDR 16,085.60 = USD 1 (31 December 2024 close, also the period-end date). The published statements for this period report the Bank on a standalone basis only - Bank Jago has no consolidated subsidiaries, consistent with every prior post in this backfill.
| Metric | FY2024 (IDR) | FY2024 (USD) | FY2023 (IDR) | YoY |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net interest and Sharia income ("Net Revenue" equivalent) | Rp1,553,425M | ~$96.58M | Rp1,565,443M | ⚠️ -0.8%, the first full-year decline in this backfill - margin compression (NIM» 9.45%→7.34%) and the Sharia unit's own income collapse outweighed 36.0% loan growth, though Q4 alone rebounded sharply (see below) |
| Impairment losses on financial assets ("Cost of Credit") | -Rp304,032M | -~$18.90M | -Rp401,309M | ✅ -24.2% for the year, though Q4 alone spiked to Rp134 billion from Q3's Rp55 billion - see Beyond the Usual |
| Operating income | Rp180,610M | ~$11.23M | Rp86,794M | ✅ +108.1% |
| Income before income tax | Rp179,359M | ~$11.15M | Rp93,563M | ✅ +91.7% |
| Income tax expense (deferred) | -Rp50,841M | -~$3.16M | -Rp21,201M | +139.8%, an expense both years |
| Net income for the year | Rp128,518M | ~$7.99M | Rp72,362M | ✅ +77.6% |
| Earnings per share (full amount, basic) | Rp9.27 | ~$0.0006 | Rp5.22 | ✅ +77.6% |
Net cash flows generated from operating activities were Rp3,227,376 million (FY2023: Rp2,250,076 million, +43.4%) - a much slower pace than 9M 2024's roughly 5x YoY surge; backing out the already-disclosed 9M figure implies standalone Q4 2024 operating cash flow of approximately Rp1,313,617 million, down 29.6% YoY from Q4 2023's implied Rp1,866,358 million - the blowout pace flagged last quarter didn't survive the year. Capital expenditure (fixed and intangible assets acquired) was Rp730,913 million (FY2023: Rp651,482 million, +12.2%) - a small fraction of operating cash flow generated for the year - against Rp4,231,256 million (~$263.03M) of period-end cash and cash equivalents. Operating income (the bank's own regulatory-format figure, netting impairment losses against revenue) is the closest bank equivalent to Adjusted EBITDA; the concept itself doesn't meaningfully apply to a deposit-taking institution.
| Balance sheet metric | Dec 2024 (IDR) | Dec 2024 (USD) | Dec 2023 (IDR) | YoY |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total Assets | Rp28,542,712M | ~$1,774.68M | Rp21,295,840M | ✅ +34.0% |
| Loans and Sharia financing (gross) | Rp17,701,486M | ~$1,100.47M | Rp13,020,051M | ✅ +36.0% |
| Total customer deposits (current, savings, time) | Rp18,805,830M | ~$1,169.24M | Rp12,067,195M | ✅ +55.9% |
| Total Liabilities | Rp20,023,788M | ~$1,244.87M | Rp12,939,048M | +54.7%, tracking balance sheet growth |
| Total Equity | Rp8,518,924M | ~$529.65M | Rp8,356,792M | +1.9%, still essentially flat |
Net income grew 77.6% and ROA crossed 1.0% for the first time in Q4 alone, but the stock still closed the year down 16.2% - the widest gap this backfill has recorded between improving fundamentals and a declining share price. Full-year net revenue actually shrank slightly (-0.8%), the first such decline in this backfill, masked by a much stronger Q4 - a reminder that the annual headline can hide real intra-year volatility (see Key Operational Metrics).
Key Operational Metrics
Ratios below are sourced from PT Bank Jago Tbk's own published financial ratios (31 December 2024 vs 31 December 2023) and its "FY24 Results Update" investor presentation.
- CASA ratio»: 52.9% (Dec 2024, calculated from Rp9,957,867M current + savings deposits ÷ Rp18,805,830M total deposits) vs. 65.3% (Dec 2023) - a fifth straight quarterly decline on the presentation's own series (65%→63%→61%→57%→53%), as time deposits kept growing faster than CASA all year.
- Loan-to-Deposit Ratio»: 94.1% (Dec 2024, per the bank's own filed ratios) vs. 107.8% (Dec 2023) - improved for a full year running, consistent with deposits continuing to outgrow loans.
- NIM»: 7.34% (FY2024, per the bank's own filed ratios) vs. 9.45% (FY2023) - down for the year, but the investor presentation's own quarterly series shows a genuine Q4 rebound: 7.5% (1Q) → 7.2% (2Q) → 6.7% (3Q) → 8.0% (4Q), the highest single quarter since Q1.
- NPL»: 0.16% gross / 0.00% net (Dec 2024, per the bank's own filed ratios) vs. 0.84%/0.05% (Dec 2023) - a new backfill-best, continuing an unbroken streak of quarterly improvement even as the loan book grew 36.0% for the year.
- CAR»: 44.4% (Dec 2024, per the bank's own filed ratios) vs. 61.8% (Dec 2023) - still falling every quarter as capital gets deployed into risk-weighted loans, now down to roughly 4.4x OJK's 10% minimum requirement, from over 6x a year ago.
- ROE» / ROA»: 1.95% / 0.73% (FY2024, per the bank's own filed ratios) vs. 1.02%/0.49% (FY2023) - both improved meaningfully for the year, and the presentation's own quarterly series shows Q4 ROA alone reaching 1.0% - the first quarter in this backfill above the 1% threshold every prior post's valuation section has measured this stock against.
- Cost-to-Income»: 73.7% (FY2024, per the bank's own filed ratios) vs. 72.3% (FY2023) - slightly worse for the year, though Q4 alone fell to 63%, the best single quarter the presentation's own series shows.
- Cost of Funds (period-end, per the investor presentation): 3.7% (Dec 2024) vs. 3.0% (Dec 2023) - a fourth straight quarterly increase since the Q3 2024 post first flagged this reversal, as CASA kept eroding.
- Cost of Credit / Average Loan (per the investor presentation): 1.9% (FY2024) vs. 3.6% (FY2023) - improved sharply for the year, but Q4 alone spiked to 3.0% from Q3's 1.3% - see Beyond the Usual.
- Related-party loan concentration: 2.94% of the loan book (Dec 2024, Rp518,913M against Rp17,644,044M gross conventional loans, per the bank's own disclosed borrower-level breakdown) vs. 4.73% (Dec 2023) - PT BFI Finance Indonesia Tbk's loan nearly halved (Rp296,234M to Rp168,854M), while PT Multifinance Anak Bangsa's loan grew further (Rp299,983M to Rp349,946M), continuing the borrower swap first flagged in the FY2023 post.
- Undrawn loan commitments: Rp2,587,958M (Dec 2024: Rp1,337,644M committed + Rp1,250,314M uncommitted) vs. Rp2,523,137M (Dec 2023) - up just 2.6% for the year, a marked slowdown from the double-digit quarterly growth this backfill tracked through most of 2024.
- KYC-verified digital banking and lending customers: 15.3+ million (Dec 2024, per the investor presentation), up from 14.1+ million at Sep 2024 and 10.2+ million at Dec 2023.
- Headcount and branch network: still not disclosed in the filed financial statements' regulatory format, continuing the pattern flagged in every prior post in this backfill back to 9M 2023.
The Sharia Unit's Floor Didn't Hold - Its Book Shrank Another 21% in Q4
The Q3 2024 post flagged that the Sharia Business Unit's financing book had gone essentially unchanged for a full quarter after an 83.1% collapse across Q1 and Q2 - "the first evidence the wind-down may have found a floor," while cautioning that one flat quarter wasn't yet proof. It wasn't: the book fell from Rp72,532 million at 30 September 2024 to Rp57,442 million at 31 December 2024, down 20.8% in the fourth quarter alone. Across the full year, the financing book fell from Rp428,551 million to Rp57,442 million - an 86.6% decline for FY2024, on top of FY2023's already-reported 80.5% decline. This is now two consecutive years in which the Sharia unit's loan book has shrunk by more than 80%.
The unit's own disclosed Financing to Deposit Ratio» fell to 6.04% at year-end, from 60.45% a year earlier, and its non-performing financing ratio improved to 0.97% gross / 0.00% net (from 3.54%/1.40%) - a shrinking book with essentially no bad debt left in it. Yet the unit's full-year net income reached Rp74,860 million, up 113.9% YoY from Rp35,002 million, and its own ROA» hit 4.01%, more than double FY2023's 2.05% - a return profile that would be remarkable for any bank, generated by a unit that originated almost nothing new all year. The explanation is the same one the FY2023 post first identified: total Sharia Business Unit assets grew 47.7% (Rp1,648,603 million to Rp2,434,917 million) because the unit kept redirecting its shrinking financing book's proceeds into marketable securities, which more than doubled to Rp2,041,989 million from Rp980,243 million. Whether this is a deliberate strategic pivot to a securities-funded Sharia balance sheet, or a wind-down that simply hasn't finished, is a question the filed statements still don't answer directly - see The Prescription.
The Stock Gave Back Its Entire Rally, and Then Some
Bank Jago's shares closed at Rp2,430 on 31 December 2024 (a trading day, no nearest-day adjustment needed), down 20.3% from Rp3,050 three months earlier - fully erasing Q3's 26.6% rally and then some. No stock split has occurred at any point since the company's IPO, so Rp2,430 is the actual nominal price quoted on the IDX at the time. Versus a year earlier (29 December 2023, Rp2,900), the stock is down 16.2% for the full year - a genuine decline in a year where net income rose 77.6%, ROA crossed 1% in Q4, and NPL hit a new backfill-best. Zooming out to the full two-year window this backfill tracks, the stock closed at Rp3,720 in December 2022 and has fallen 34.7% since.
This is the sharpest disconnect between price and fundamentals this backfill has recorded in either direction - previous quarters have seen the stock overshoot the fundamentals (most of 2022-2023) or briefly track them (Q3 2024's rally), but a full year of genuinely improving profitability, credit quality, and returns coinciding with a double-digit price decline hasn't happened before in this series. Whether the market is pricing in the Sharia unit's unresolved trajectory (see above), a broader de-rating of Indonesian digital-bank valuations, or something else entirely isn't something this backfill's data can resolve - only that, for the first time, a full year of real operating improvement and a falling share price happened together.
Beyond the Usual
Q4's cost-of-credit charge more than doubled even as the headline NPL ratio hit a new low
Impairment losses on financial assets jumped to Rp134 billion in Q4 2024, up from Rp55 billion in Q3 2024 - a 144% quarter-over-quarter increase - almost entirely from the conventional book (Rp155 billion in Q4 provisioning, against Q3's Rp50 billion), even as gross NPL fell further to a new backfill-best 0.16%. A rising provisioning charge alongside an improving delinquency ratio isn't necessarily contradictory - provisioning under expected-credit-loss accounting can move ahead of realized defaults as the loan book grows 36% for the year - but it's a large enough single-quarter swing that a reader relying on the NPL ratio alone would miss it entirely.
Cost of funds rose for a fourth straight quarter as CASA kept eroding
Cost of funds (period-end, per the investor presentation) rose to 3.7% at 31 December 2024, continuing the reversal first flagged in the Q3 2024 post (3.0%→3.1%→3.1%→3.4%→3.7% across the five most recent quarters). The driver is the same one: CASA» fell to 52.9% by year-end, from 65.3% twelve months earlier, as time deposits kept growing faster than current and savings accounts throughout 2024. This funding-mix shift is the direct cost of the deposit growth (+55.9% for the year) that's driving the bank's balance sheet expansion - a real tradeoff, not a concern on its own, but a trend now four quarters deep with no sign of reversing.
A second MESOP» grant was struck at a much lower reference price than the first
Bank Jago issued a second tranche of stock options in June 2024 - 10,000,000 new option rights at the same Rp2,150 exercise price as the original 2023 grant, but with a Black-Scholes fair value of just Rp375 per option, against Rp1,020 for the first grant. The gap reflects the stock's decline: the weighted-average reference share price on the grant date was Rp1,900 for the second tranche, versus Rp2,920 for the first. Across the full year, 2,547,100 options were exercised (implying roughly that many new shares issued) and 937,500 lapsed, taking total outstanding options to 134,865,400 at year-end. Share-based payment expense rose to approximately Rp30 billion for FY2024, from Rp20 billion in FY2023.
A bank director now personally holds a disclosed equity stake for the first time in this backfill
The FY2024 shareholder table discloses that President Director Arief Harris Tandjung holds 46,646,331 shares (0.34% of the company) as of 31 December 2024 - the first individually named management shareholder to appear in this backfill's tracked disclosures, alongside the four institutional holders (PT Metamorfosis Ekosistem Indonesia, PT Dompet Karya Anak Bangsa, Wealth Track Technology Limited, and GIC Private Limited) that have anchored the cap table since the 2021 rights issues.
Board and management compensation grew slower than profit
Combined compensation for the Board of Commissioners and Directors rose to Rp68,992 million for FY2024, up 45.6% from Rp47,383 million in FY2023 - the largest such increase this backfill has recorded, though still trailing net income's 77.6% growth for the year.
Financial Institutions lending was fully wound down to zero
The bank's "Financial Institutions" lending channel - a loan category the presentation deck has separately tracked alongside Partnership & Ecosystem Lending and Sharia Financing since at least Dec 2023 - fell from Rp200 billion at 30 September 2024 to zero at 31 December 2024, completing a decline that had already taken it from Rp480 billion at Dec 2023 through Rp550 billion, Rp320 billion, and Rp200 billion across the year's four quarters. Partnership & Ecosystem Lending, the bank's dominant channel, now makes up 99.7% of the gross loan book.
Target Valuation Range
Market cap Rp33.68 trillion (~$2.09 billion), ~3.95x P/B, ~262.1x P/E. Bottom line: less overvalued than three months ago on both an earnings and a book basis, since the stock's price decline this quarter outpaced growth in both earnings and book value - but still expensive for a bank whose full-year ROA is 0.73%, even with Q4 alone crossing 1%.
Bank Jago's shares closed at Rp2,430 on 31 December 2024, down 20.3% from Rp3,050 three months earlier and 16.2% for the full year (see above). Issued and fully paid-in capital of Rp1,385,880 million at a Rp100 par value implies approximately 13,858,797,100 shares outstanding, for a market capitalization of approximately Rp33.68 trillion (~$2.09 billion).
| Market cap → book value | Q4 2024 |
|---|---|
| Share price (period-end) | Rp2,430 |
| Shares outstanding | 13,858,797,100 |
| Market capitalization | Rp33.68 trillion (~$2.09 billion) |
| Total equity (book value) | Rp8,518,924M |
| Book value per share | Rp614.71 |
| Peer-multiple sanity check | Q3 2024 | Q4 2024 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/B | 4.99x | 3.95x | down |
| P/E | 369.5x | 262.1x | down |
P/B»: ~3.95x, using book value» per share of Rp614.71 (Rp8,518,924M total equity ÷ 13,858,797,100 shares) - down from Q3 2024's ~4.99x, since the 20.3% price decline since then outpaced book value's roughly flat 0.6% growth over the same period. P/E»: using FY2024's actual full-year basic EPS of Rp9.27 (no annualizing needed for an annual report), the implied multiple is roughly 262.1x - down sharply from FY2023's 555.6x, as earnings growth (+77.6%) combined with the price decline (-16.2%) to roughly halve the multiple. A full DCF still isn't appropriate, for the same reason every prior post in this backfill has given: this year's own numbers show the Sharia unit's trajectory reversing direction within the same year the stock did the opposite of what the fundamentals suggested, making any long-run growth assumption more speculative than usual. The peer-multiple read stays the honest one, and both multiples compressed meaningfully this year - real progress, driven roughly equally by genuinely stronger earnings and a falling share price, which is a healthier way for a multiple to compress than Q3 2024's re-rating in the wrong direction was. Still, at nearly 4x book value for a bank whose full-year ROA sits at 0.73%, the stock remains priced for a return profile it hasn't yet sustained for more than a single quarter.
PT Bank Jago Tbk's published financial statements for the year ended 31 December 2024 (with 31 December 2023 comparatives), its 2024 Integrated Annual Report, and its "FY24 Results Update" investor presentation.