Three Associates, Three Different Trajectories
Nine months into 2023, FiberStar's consolidated revenue reached Rp1,031.180 billion, up 36.4% from Rp755.819 billion in 9M 2022 — a genuinely strong pace, though a touch slower than H1's 42.7% as the comparison base gets tougher. The consolidated bottom line kept falling in the opposite direction: net income attributable to owners came to Rp596.128 billion, down 36.4% from Rp937.937 billion in 9M 2022 — almost the mirror image of the revenue growth rate, a coincidence worth noting but not reading into. The Q1 and Q2 posts already established that a weaker associate-profit contribution is the driver; this quarter's Note 9 rollforward makes clear the weakness isn't evenly spread. Indomaret's cumulative contribution kept growing (Rp371.674 billion, up from Rp282.469 billion at H1), Sari Roti's held roughly flat quarter-to-quarter, and Fast Food Indonesia's cumulative loss widened to Rp54.626 billion — its worst nine-month result anywhere in this backlog's coverage, reversing the brief H1 2023 near-breakeven the Q2 2023 post flagged.
This confirms what the H1 post could only note as one narrow quarter of a small loss: Fast Food Indonesia's KFC franchise is genuinely struggling again in the second half of 2023, not just posting normal quarter-to-quarter noise around breakeven.
The Prescription
Given three straight years of KFC losses now on file across this backlog (FY2021, FY2022, and now a widening loss through 9M 2023), the Company — as a 35.84% shareholder with real governance standing, not a passive index holder — should be pushing Fast Food Indonesia's board for a specific, disclosed turnaround plan rather than continuing to absorb an undifferentiated equity-method loss quarter after quarter. What it should stop doing: presenting Fast Food Indonesia's results with no commentary at all in its own filings, even as the loss deepens to a new backlog-wide low — a one-sentence explanation (same-store sales, input costs, competitive pressure from other QSR chains) would let a reader distinguish a temporary setback from a structural problem, the same gap Q1 2023 already flagged for the associate portfolio broadly.
Key Financial Metrics
9M 2023 vs. 9M 2022, consolidated, cumulative nine-month figures
FX: IDR 15,474 = USD 1 (September 28, 2023 rate, independently sourced spot data).
| Metric | 9M 2023 (IDR) | 9M 2023 (USD) | 9M 2022 (IDR) | YoY |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue (FiberStar, consolidated) | Rp1,031.180B | ~$66.63M | Rp755.819B | ✅ +36.44% |
| Share of profit of associates» | Rp374.193B | ~$24.18M | Rp750.274B | ⚠️ -50.12% |
| Operating Income» | Rp745.573B | ~$48.18M | Rp999.748B | ⚠️ -25.42% |
| Net Income» (total, incl. NCI) | Rp660.575B | ~$42.69M | Rp986.382B | ⚠️ -33.03% |
| Net income attributable to owners | Rp596.128B | ~$38.52M | Rp937.937B | ⚠️ -36.44% |
| EPS (basic, nine months) | Rp42.03 | ~$0.00272 | Rp66.13 | ⚠️ -36.44% |
| Operating cash flow | Rp263.051B | ~$17.00M | Rp95.072B | ✅ +176.7% |
| Free Cash Flow» (op. cash flow - capex) | -Rp327.613B | ~-$21.17M | not computed | n/a |
"Adjusted EBITDA" isn't a metric this Company reports and doesn't map cleanly onto a pure holding company's accounts — Operating Income above already embeds Rp374.2 billion of non-cash equity-method associate profit, so an add-back would double-count it, the same reasoning used throughout this series.
| Balance sheet | Sep 30, 2023 (IDR) | Sep 30, 2023 (USD) | Dec 31, 2022 (IDR) | YTD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total Assets | Rp20,167.147B | ~$1.303B | Rp18,918.152B | ✅ +6.60% |
| Total Liabilities | Rp7,174.268B | ~$463.6M | Rp6,590.854B | ⚠️ +8.85% |
| Total Equity | Rp12,992.879B | ~$839.5M | Rp12,327.298B | ✅ +5.40% |
| Cash and cash equivalents | Rp515.907B | ~$33.34M | Rp369.058B | ✅ +39.79% |
Operating cash flow's strength held through the third quarter, up 176.7% cumulatively to Rp263.051 billion — the strongest nine-month figure this backlog has recorded, and a real positive against the FY2022 post's flagged Q4 2022 reversal concern. Total liabilities grew faster than assets this year, a trend worth watching into year-end given the FY2022 post's opposite direction (liabilities falling for the full year).
FiberStar's Segments: Corporate's Lead Widens Further, Cyberindo Concentration Keeps Falling
| Segment | 9M 2023 Revenue | 9M 2022 Revenue | YoY | % of Total 9M 2023 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Corporate (third-party) | Rp531.677B | Rp332.577B | ✅ +59.87% | 51.6% |
| Retail (third-party) | Rp423.509B | Rp338.663B | ✅ +25.05% | 41.1% |
| Other (third-party, plus related-party) | Rp75.994B | Rp84.579B | ⚠️ -10.15% | 7.4% |
| Total | Rp1,031.180B | Rp755.819B | +36.44% | 100% |
Corporate's growth lead over Retail widened further this quarter (59.9% vs 25.1% cumulative, up from H1's 65.9%/35.0%), continuing to reverse the multi-year retail-broadband shift this backlog tracked through FY2021 and FY2022 — Corporate's share of the mix now sits at 51.6%, its highest reading anywhere in this series.
PT Cyberindo Aditama's concentration continued its steady decline: 50.48% of 9M 2023 revenue, down from 53.47% in 9M 2022. This is now the fourth consecutive quarter (across Q1, H1, and this quarter) this metric has fallen year-over-year, a genuine and sustained de-concentration trend rather than a one-off.
Associates: Indomaret Keeps Growing, Fast Food's Loss Hits a Backlog Low
| Associate | 9M 2023 share of profit | Dividend received | Carrying value, Sep 30, 2023 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Indomarco Prismatama (Indomaret) | Rp371.674B | — | Rp7,183.230B |
| Nippon Indosari Corpindo (Sari Roti) | Rp59.263B | -Rp169.890B | Rp2,366.047B |
| Fast Food Indonesia (KFC) | -Rp54.626B | — | Rp1,924.599B |
| PT Jaringan Mega Sedayu (joint venture) | -Rp2.118B | — | Rp20.770B |
| Total | Rp374.193B | -Rp169.890B | Rp11,494.646B |
Indomaret's cumulative contribution kept climbing (Rp371.674 billion through 9M, vs Rp282.469 billion at H1 — implying a genuinely strong Q3 standalone quarter for Indomaret), still the dominant driver of the associate line at 99.3% of the total. Fast Food Indonesia's Q3-standalone loss, implied by the change from H1's -Rp1.994 billion to 9M's -Rp54.626 billion, comes to roughly Rp52.6 billion for the quarter alone — a sharp deterioration and the single worst quarterly result for this associate anywhere in this backlog's coverage (see Beyond the Usual for a comparison against the prior full-year losses).
Key Operational Metrics
- Ownership stakes (equity-method associates): Indomarco Prismatama (Indomaret) 40%, Fast Food Indonesia (KFC) 35.84%, Nippon Indosari Corpindo (Sari Roti) 25.77% — all unchanged
- FiberStar consolidation (MAP): 71.97% direct-plus-indirect (69.17% direct + 2.80% via PT Indoritel Persada Nusantara) as of September 30, 2023 — unchanged
- Cyberindo Aditama revenue concentration: 50.48% of 9M 2023 revenue vs. 53.47% (9M 2022)
- Permanent headcount: 198 (September 30, 2023, unaudited) vs. 190 (Dec 31, 2022), ✅ +4.2%, though down slightly from 200 at Q2 2023
- Not available this quarter: home-passed/home-connected subscriber counts, unchanged from the gap flagged in every prior post since FY2021
Beyond the Usual
Fast Food Indonesia's Q3-standalone loss is the worst single quarter in this backlog's coverage
Fast Food Indonesia's implied Q3 2023 standalone equity-method loss of roughly Rp52.6 billion (backed out from the change in the cumulative 9M figure against H1) is larger than any full-quarter loss this backlog has directly observed, and pushes the 9M 2023 cumulative loss (Rp54.626 billion) close to the full-year FY2021 loss (Rp295.7 billion, per the FY2021 post) on a run-rate basis if the pattern continues. Neither this filing nor Fast Food Indonesia's own disclosures (not independently sourced beyond what flows through this equity-method note) explain the driver. This is worth tracking closely in the FY2023 post to see whether Q4 brings a reversal or confirms a genuine multi-quarter deterioration.
Target Valuation Range
Bottom line: the stock rose sharply through Q3 2023 (Rp4,690, up 11.7% from Rp4,200 at H1-end) even as trailing nine-month earnings fell 36.4% — the clearest divergence between price and fundamentals anywhere in this 2023 backfill so far, and one this series will keep watching into year-end.
The Company's shares closed 9M 2023 at Rp4,690 (independently sourced spot data for September 28, 2023), up 11.7% from Rp4,200 at the end of H1 2023 and up 13.3% from Rp4,140 at the end of FY2022. No stock split has occurred for this ticker in the period covered by this backlog.
| Market cap → book value | 9M 2023 | H1 2023 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Share price (period-end) | Rp4,690 | Rp4,200 | ✅ up 11.7% |
| Shares outstanding | 14,184,000,000 | 14,184,000,000 | ➖ unchanged |
| Market capitalization | Rp66,523.0B (~$4.299B) | Rp59,572.8B | ✅ up 11.7% |
| Book value per share (total equity basis) | Rp915.94 | Rp903.44 | ✅ up |
| P/B» | ~5.12x | ~4.65x | ⚠️ up |
A trailing-twelve-month P/E still isn't shown — the FY2023 post will complete the full-year figure needed for a clean comparison.
| Sum-of-the-parts sanity check | 9M 2023 |
|---|---|
| Fast Food Indonesia stake, at market (Rp800/share, September 28, 2023) | ~Rp1.144 trillion |
| Nippon Indosari Corpindo (Sari Roti) stake, at market (Rp1,400/share, September 28, 2023) | ~Rp2.233 trillion |
| Non-associate net assets (total equity less carrying value of all associate/JV investments) | ~Rp1.498 trillion |
| Sum, excluding Indomaret | ~Rp4.875 trillion |
| Company's market capitalization | Rp66.523 trillion |
| Implied value of 40% Indomaret stake | ~Rp61.648 trillion |
| Implied value of all of Indomaret | ~Rp154.120 trillion |
Both FAST's and ROTI's own September 28, 2023 closing prices are independently sourced spot data. The implied full value of Indomaret jumped to roughly Rp154.1 trillion — the highest reading anywhere in this backlog, up sharply from H1's ~Rp137.2 trillion — driven almost entirely by the Company's own 11.7% share-price gain this quarter rather than any independently sourced change in Indomaret's own fundamentals (which, per the associate table above, grew but not by anywhere near that magnitude). This is the sharpest reminder yet in this series that DNET's own share price and the "implied Indomaret valuation" backed out of it are a function of market sentiment toward DNET, not a direct read on Indomaret's own worth — a point FY2022's post also made in passing. A full discounted cash flow model still isn't attempted, for the reasons stated throughout this series.
PT Indoritel Makmur Internasional Tbk's consolidated financial statements for the nine months ended September 30, 2023 (with September 30, 2022 comparatives), including notes to the consolidated financial statements.