Three Associates, Three Different Trajectories
Nine months into 2023, FiberStar's consolidated revenue reached Rp1,031.180 billion, up 36.4% from Rp755.819 billion in 9M 2022 — a genuinely strong pace, though a touch slower than H1's 42.7% as the comparison base gets tougher. The consolidated bottom line kept falling in the opposite direction: net income attributable to owners came to Rp596.128 billion, down 36.4% from Rp937.937 billion in 9M 2022 — almost the mirror image of the revenue growth rate, a coincidence worth noting but not reading into. The Q1 and Q2 posts already established that a weaker associate-profit contribution is the driver; this quarter's Note 9 rollforward makes clear the weakness isn't evenly spread. Indomaret's cumulative contribution kept growing (Rp371.674 billion, up from Rp282.469 billion at H1), Sari Roti's held roughly flat quarter-to-quarter, and Fast Food Indonesia's cumulative loss widened to Rp54.626 billion, reversing the brief H1 2023 near-breakeven the Q2 2023 post flagged.
This confirms what the H1 post could only note as one narrow quarter of a small loss: Fast Food Indonesia's KFC franchise is genuinely struggling again in the second half of 2023, not just posting normal quarter-to-quarter noise around breakeven.
The Prescription
Given three straight years of KFC losses now on file (FY2021, FY2022, and now a widening loss through 9M 2023), the Company — as a 35.84% shareholder with real governance standing, not a passive index holder — should be pushing Fast Food Indonesia's board for a specific, disclosed turnaround plan rather than continuing to absorb an undifferentiated equity-method loss quarter after quarter. What it should stop doing: presenting Fast Food Indonesia's results with no commentary at all in its own filings, even as the loss deepens — a one-sentence explanation (same-store sales, input costs, competitive pressure from other QSR chains) would let a reader distinguish a temporary setback from a structural problem, the same gap Q1 2023 already flagged for the associate portfolio broadly.
Key Financial Metrics
9M 2023 vs. 9M 2022, consolidated, cumulative nine-month figures
FX: IDR 15,474 = USD 1 (September 28, 2023 rate, independently sourced spot data).
| Metric | 9M 2023 (IDR) | 9M 2023 (USD) | 9M 2022 (IDR) | YoY |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue (FiberStar, consolidated) | Rp1,031.180B | ~$66.63M | Rp755.819B | +36.44% |
| Share of profit of associates» | Rp374.193B | ~$24.18M | Rp750.274B | -50.12% |
| Operating Income» | Rp745.573B | ~$48.18M | Rp999.748B | -25.42% |
| Net Income» (total, incl. NCI) | Rp660.575B | ~$42.69M | Rp986.382B | -33.03% |
| Net income attributable to owners | Rp596.128B | ~$38.52M | Rp937.937B | -36.44% |
| EPS (basic, nine months) | Rp42.03 | ~$0.00272 | Rp66.13 | -36.44% |
| Operating cash flow | Rp263.051B | ~$17.00M | Rp95.072B | +176.7% |
| Free Cash Flow» (op. cash flow - capex) | -Rp327.613B | ~-$21.17M | not computed | n/a |
"Adjusted EBITDA" isn't a metric this Company reports and doesn't map cleanly onto a pure holding company's accounts — Operating Income above already embeds Rp374.2 billion of non-cash equity-method associate profit, so an add-back would double-count it.
| Balance sheet | Sep 30, 2023 (IDR) | Sep 30, 2023 (USD) | Dec 31, 2022 (IDR) | YTD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total Assets | Rp20,167.147B | ~$1.303B | Rp18,918.152B | +6.60% |
| Total Liabilities | Rp7,174.268B | ~$463.6M | Rp6,590.854B | +8.85% |
| Total Equity | Rp12,992.879B | ~$839.5M | Rp12,327.298B | +5.40% |
| Cash and cash equivalents | Rp515.907B | ~$33.34M | Rp369.058B | +39.79% |
Operating cash flow's strength held through the third quarter, up 176.7% cumulatively to Rp263.051 billion — a real positive against the FY2022 post's flagged Q4 2022 reversal concern. Total liabilities grew faster than assets this year, a trend worth watching into year-end given the FY2022 post's opposite direction (liabilities falling for the full year).
FiberStar's Segments: Corporate's Lead Widens Further, Cyberindo Concentration Keeps Falling
| Segment | 9M 2023 Revenue | 9M 2022 Revenue | YoY | % of Total 9M 2023 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Corporate (third-party) | Rp531.677B | Rp332.577B | +59.87% | 51.6% |
| Retail (third-party) | Rp423.509B | Rp338.663B | +25.05% | 41.1% |
| Other (third-party, plus related-party) | Rp75.994B | Rp84.579B | -10.15% | 7.4% |
| Total | Rp1,031.180B | Rp755.819B | +36.44% | 100% |
Corporate's growth lead over Retail widened further this quarter (59.9% vs 25.1% cumulative, up from H1's 65.9%/35.0%), continuing to reverse the multi-year retail-broadband shift seen through FY2021 and FY2022 — Corporate's share of the mix now sits at 51.6%.
PT Cyberindo Aditama's concentration continued its steady decline: 50.48% of 9M 2023 revenue, down from 53.47% in 9M 2022. This is now the fourth consecutive quarter (across Q1, H1, and this quarter) this metric has fallen year-over-year, a genuine and sustained de-concentration trend rather than a one-off.
Associates: Indomaret Keeps Growing, Fast Food's Loss Deepens
| Associate | 9M 2023 share of profit | Dividend received | Carrying value, Sep 30, 2023 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Indomarco Prismatama (Indomaret) | Rp371.674B | — | Rp7,183.230B |
| Nippon Indosari Corpindo (Sari Roti) | Rp59.263B | -Rp169.890B | Rp2,366.047B |
| Fast Food Indonesia (KFC) | -Rp54.626B | — | Rp1,924.599B |
| PT Jaringan Mega Sedayu (joint venture) | -Rp2.118B | — | Rp20.770B |
| Total | Rp374.193B | -Rp169.890B | Rp11,494.646B |
Indomaret's cumulative contribution kept climbing (Rp371.674 billion through 9M, vs Rp282.469 billion at H1 — implying a genuinely strong Q3 standalone quarter for Indomaret), still the dominant driver of the associate line at 99.3% of the total. Fast Food Indonesia's Q3-standalone loss, implied by the change from H1's -Rp1.994 billion to 9M's -Rp54.626 billion, comes to roughly Rp52.6 billion for the quarter alone — a sharp deterioration (see Beyond the Usual for a comparison against the prior full-year losses).
Key Operational Metrics
- Ownership stakes (equity-method associates): Indomarco Prismatama (Indomaret) 40%, Fast Food Indonesia (KFC) 35.84%, Nippon Indosari Corpindo (Sari Roti) 25.77% — all unchanged
- FiberStar consolidation (MAP): 71.97% direct-plus-indirect (69.17% direct + 2.80% via PT Indoritel Persada Nusantara) as of September 30, 2023 — unchanged
- Cyberindo Aditama revenue concentration: 50.48% of 9M 2023 revenue vs. 53.47% (9M 2022)
- Permanent headcount: 198 (September 30, 2023, unaudited) vs. 190 (Dec 31, 2022), +4.2%, though down slightly from 200 at Q2 2023
- Not available this quarter: home-passed/home-connected subscriber counts, unchanged from the gap flagged in every prior post since FY2021
Beyond the Usual
Fast Food Indonesia's Q3-standalone loss deepened sharply
Fast Food Indonesia's implied Q3 2023 standalone equity-method loss of roughly Rp52.6 billion (backed out from the change in the cumulative 9M figure against H1) is larger than any full-quarter loss directly observed, and pushes the 9M 2023 cumulative loss (Rp54.626 billion) close to the full-year FY2021 loss (Rp295.7 billion, per the FY2021 post) on a run-rate basis if the pattern continues. Neither this filing nor Fast Food Indonesia's own disclosures (not independently sourced beyond what flows through this equity-method note) explain the driver. This is worth tracking closely in the FY2023 post to see whether Q4 brings a reversal or confirms a genuine multi-quarter deterioration.
Target Valuation Range
Richer than at H1, too early to call against peers: P/B rose to ~5.12x from ~4.65x as the stock rose 11.7% to Rp4,690 while trailing nine-month earnings fell 36.4%. That is a clear divergence between price and fundamentals; no peer table is on the page and no trailing P/E is shown yet.
The Company's shares closed 9M 2023 at Rp4,690 (independently sourced spot data for September 28, 2023), up 11.7% from Rp4,200 at the end of H1 2023 and up 13.3% from Rp4,140 at the end of FY2022. No stock split falls within the two-year price window used here.
| Market cap → book value | 9M 2023 | H1 2023 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Share price (period-end) | Rp4,690 | Rp4,200 | up 11.7% |
| Shares outstanding | 14,184,000,000 | 14,184,000,000 | unchanged |
| Market capitalization | Rp66,523.0B (~$4.299B) | Rp59,572.8B | up 11.7% |
| Book value per share (total equity basis) | Rp915.94 | Rp903.44 | up |
| P/B» | ~5.12x | ~4.65x | up |
A trailing-twelve-month P/E still isn't shown — the FY2023 post will complete the full-year figure needed for a clean comparison.
| Sum-of-the-parts sanity check | 9M 2023 |
|---|---|
| Fast Food Indonesia stake, at market (Rp800/share, September 28, 2023) | ~Rp1.144 trillion |
| Nippon Indosari Corpindo (Sari Roti) stake, at market (Rp1,400/share, September 28, 2023) | ~Rp2.233 trillion |
| Non-associate net assets (total equity less carrying value of all associate/JV investments) | ~Rp1.498 trillion |
| Sum, excluding Indomaret | ~Rp4.875 trillion |
| Company's market capitalization | Rp66.523 trillion |
| Both FAST's and ROTI's own September 28, 2023 closing prices are independently sourced spot data. The residual left for the Indomaret stake after the other holdings is a function of market sentiment toward DNET, not a direct read on Indomaret's own worth — a point FY2022's post also made in passing. |
PT Indoritel Makmur Internasional Tbk's consolidated financial statements for the nine months ended September 30, 2023 (with September 30, 2022 comparatives), including notes to the consolidated financial statements.