Indomaret Keeps Recovering. The Stock Moved Far Ahead of It.
The Q2 2024 post flagged Indomaret's Q2 rebound as the strongest single quarter for that associate this backlog had observed — Q3 went further. Nine-month cumulative Indomaret contribution reached Rp742.342 billion, up 99.7% from Rp371.674 billion in 9M 2023, implying a standalone Q3 contribution of roughly Rp316.3 billion, continuing the momentum from Q2's roughly Rp366.1 billion. Combined with Sari Roti's steady growth, total associate profit for the nine months came to Rp607.788 billion, up 62.4% from Rp374.193 billion. Operating Income» reached Rp849.667 billion (+13.9%) and net income attributable to owners came to Rp745.077 billion, up 25.0% from Rp596.128 billion in 9M 2023 — the strongest nine-month growth rate this backlog has recorded since the pandemic-recovery years.
None of that explains what happened to the stock. DNET closed Q3 2024 at Rp9,050, up 83.6% from Rp4,930 at the end of Q2 2024 — by far the sharpest single-quarter price move anywhere in this backlog's coverage, and roughly three-and-a-half times the underlying earnings growth rate for the same period. This filing contains no disclosed corporate action, subsequent event, or announcement that would explain a move of this size (see Beyond the Usual). Meanwhile Fast Food Indonesia's cumulative loss deepened to Rp199.658 billion through 9M 2024 — already worse than the entire FY2023 loss of Rp148.970 billion the FY2023 post flagged as a backlog-wide worst full year, with one quarter still to go.
The Prescription
Indomaret's back-to-back strong quarters are the real story management should be pointing to — nearly doubling its nine-month contribution year-over-year is a genuine business recovery, not a base-effect illusion, and the Company should keep leaning on its 40% stake's governance rights to reinforce whatever operational changes are driving it. What it should stop doing: leaving a stock move this large — 83.6% in one quarter, on a thinly-traded holding-company share — entirely undiscussed in its own investor communications. Even without a specific corporate action to point to, a brief statement acknowledging the volatility (common for illiquid holding-company shares, as prior posts in this series have noted) would help a reader distinguish a genuine re-rating from a thin-volume anomaly (see Target Valuation Range).
The Stock Moved 83.6% in a Quarter With No Disclosed Catalyst
DNET's share price went from Rp4,700 (end of Q1 2024) to Rp4,930 (end of Q2 2024) to Rp9,050 (end of Q3 2024) — essentially flat for two quarters, then nearly doubling in the third. This filing doesn't disclose a stock split, rights issue, corporate action, or subsequent event that would mechanically explain the jump (checked directly against the filing's own subsequent-events and corporate-action disclosures — the only stock-split references in this document concern ROTI's and FAST's own historical share splits from over a decade ago, unrelated to DNET). The fundamentals did improve this quarter — Indomaret's strong contribution and 25% net income growth are genuine — but a price move of this magnitude on a stock this thinly traded is also consistent with low-float illiquidity amplifying a normal re-rating into an outsized one, a pattern this series has flagged before (FY2022 post) without this backlog having independent trading-volume data to confirm either explanation. Readers should treat the resulting valuation multiples this quarter (below) with that caveat in mind.
Key Financial Metrics
9M 2024 vs. 9M 2023, consolidated, cumulative nine-month figures
FX: IDR 15,171 = USD 1 (September 30, 2024 rate, independently sourced spot data).
| Metric | 9M 2024 (IDR) | 9M 2024 (USD) | 9M 2023 (IDR) | YoY |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue (FiberStar, consolidated) | Rp1,058.087B | ~$69.75M | Rp1,031.180B | ✅ +2.61% |
| Share of profit of associates» | Rp607.788B | ~$40.06M | Rp374.193B | ✅ +62.44% |
| Operating Income» | Rp849.667B | ~$56.00M | Rp745.573B | ✅ +13.96% |
| Net Income» (total, incl. NCI) | Rp769.235B | ~$50.71M | Rp660.575B | ✅ +16.45% |
| Net income attributable to owners | Rp745.077B | ~$49.11M | Rp596.128B | ✅ +25.00% |
| EPS (basic, nine months) | Rp52.53 | ~$0.00346 | Rp42.03 | ✅ +24.98% |
| Operating cash flow | -Rp0.540B | ~-$0.04M | Rp263.051B | ⚠️ Swung negative |
| Free Cash Flow» (op. cash flow - capex) | -Rp593.964B | ~-$39.15M | -Rp327.613B | ⚠️ Burn widened 81.3% |
"Adjusted EBITDA" isn't a metric this Company reports and doesn't map cleanly onto a pure holding company's accounts — Operating Income above already embeds Rp607.8 billion of non-cash equity-method associate profit, so an add-back would double-count it, the same reasoning used throughout this series.
| Balance sheet | Sep 30, 2024 (IDR) | Sep 30, 2024 (USD) | Dec 31, 2023 (IDR) | YTD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total Assets | Rp21,481.568B | ~$1.416B | Rp20,710.860B | ✅ +3.72% |
| Total Liabilities | Rp7,628.045B | ~$502.8M | Rp7,637.304B | ➖ -0.12% |
| Total Equity | Rp13,853.523B | ~$913.2M | Rp13,073.556B | ✅ +5.97% |
| Cash and cash equivalents | Rp1,363.437B | ~$89.87M | Rp913.710B | ✅ +49.22% |
Revenue growth slowed to just 2.6% this quarter — the weakest nine-month growth rate this backlog has recorded, a real deceleration from H1's 4.0% and the 20-45% growth rates that defined most of 2023. Operating cash flow essentially broke even on a cumulative basis (-Rp0.540 billion), meaning Q3 alone was strongly positive (roughly +Rp103.7 billion implied), a real recovery from the Q2 2024 post's flagged two-quarter negative streak — worth confirming with the FY2024 post whether the full year closes positive.
FiberStar's Segments: Revenue Growth Nearly Stalls, Corporate Still Carries the Business
| Segment | 9M 2024 Revenue | 9M 2023 Revenue | YoY | % of Total 9M 2024 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Corporate (third-party) | Rp628.028B | Rp531.677B | ✅ +18.13% | 59.4% |
| Retail (third-party) | Rp363.393B | Rp423.509B | ⚠️ -14.19% | 34.3% |
| Other (third-party) | Rp66.666B | Rp75.994B | ⚠️ -12.27% | 6.3% |
| Total | Rp1,058.087B | Rp1,031.180B | +2.61% | 100% |
Retail's decline is now a confirmed three-quarter trend across Q1, H1, and now 9M 2024, a real structural shift away from the retail-broadband growth story this backlog originally tracked in FY2021 and FY2022. Corporate alone is now carrying essentially all of FiberStar's consolidated growth.
PT Cyberindo Aditama's concentration was 44.89% of 9M 2024 revenue, down from 50.48% in 9M 2023 — holding roughly steady against H1 2024's 44.78%, suggesting the sharp Q1 2024 drop (see the Q1 2024 post) has stabilized at a new, lower level rather than continuing to fall further or fully reverting to the >50% range seen through most of 2023.
Associates: Indomaret's Best Nine Months Yet, Fast Food's Loss Exceeds All of FY2023
| Associate | 9M 2024 share of profit | Dividend received | Carrying value, Sep 30, 2024 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Indomarco Prismatama (Indomaret) | Rp742.342B | — | Rp8,047.523B |
| Nippon Indosari Corpindo (Sari Roti) | Rp64.119B | -Rp139.787B | Rp2,313.576B |
| Fast Food Indonesia (KFC) | -Rp199.658B | — | Rp1,665.861B |
| Total (incl. JV) | Rp607.788B | -Rp139.787B | ~Rp12,027B |
Indomaret's 9M 2024 contribution of Rp742.342 billion already exceeds its own full-year FY2022 contribution (Rp932.218 billion is close but not yet surpassed, with one quarter still to report) and is nearly 38% ahead of its full FY2023 total (Rp544.004 billion) — a genuine, sustained recovery now confirmed across three consecutive quarters. Fast Food Indonesia's cumulative loss of Rp199.658 billion has already exceeded FY2023's full-year loss (Rp148.970 billion) with a full quarter still to report, extending a losing streak that now spans six consecutive quarters (see Beyond the Usual).
Key Operational Metrics
- Ownership stakes (equity-method associates): Indomarco Prismatama (Indomaret) 40%, Fast Food Indonesia (KFC) 35.84%, Nippon Indosari Corpindo (Sari Roti) 25.77% — all unchanged
- FiberStar consolidation (MAP): 71.97% direct-plus-indirect (69.17% direct + 2.80% via PT Indoritel Persada Nusantara) as of September 30, 2024 — unchanged
- Cyberindo Aditama revenue concentration: 44.89% of 9M 2024 revenue vs. 50.48% (9M 2023)
- Permanent headcount: 229 (September 30, 2024, unaudited) vs. 198 (Dec 31, 2023), ✅ +15.7%
- Not available this quarter: home-passed/home-connected subscriber counts, unchanged from the gap flagged in every prior post since FY2021
Beyond the Usual
Fast Food Indonesia's loss has already exceeded all of FY2023's — with a quarter still to report
Fast Food Indonesia's Rp199.658 billion cumulative equity-method loss through 9M 2024 already exceeds the Rp148.970 billion full-year loss the FY2023 post flagged as the worst full year in this backlog's coverage — and there's still a fourth quarter to add to it. This is now six consecutive quarters of losses at this specific associate (Q3 2023, Q4 2023 implied, Q1 2024, Q2 2024, and the two quarters comprising this 9M figure), with no disclosed operational explanation in any filing this backlog has reviewed. Given the Company's 35.84% ownership and board-level standing, the absence of any disclosed governance response continues to stand out.
An 84% quarterly share-price move with no disclosed corporate action behind it
DNET's share price rose from Rp4,930 to Rp9,050 between June 30 and September 30, 2024 — an 83.6% move in a single quarter, the largest this backlog has recorded, against a period where net income attributable to owners grew a much more modest 25.0% on a nine-month cumulative basis. No stock split, rights issue, or other disclosed corporate action in this filing explains the mechanical jump. See The Stock Moved 83.6% in a Quarter With No Disclosed Catalyst above for the full discussion.
Target Valuation Range
Bottom line: at Rp9,050, the stock is trading at roughly double where it sat just one quarter earlier despite fundamentals that, while genuinely improving, grew far more modestly — this reads as overvalued relative to the pace of the underlying recovery, not because the recovery isn't real, but because the price has already priced in several more quarters of it.
The Company's shares closed 9M 2024 at Rp9,050 (independently sourced spot data for September 30, 2024), up 83.6% from Rp4,930 at the end of Q2 2024 and up 92.6% from Rp4,700 at the end of FY2023. No stock split has occurred for this ticker in the period covered by this backlog.
| Market cap → book value | 9M 2024 | H1 2024 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Share price (period-end) | Rp9,050 | Rp4,930 | ✅ up 83.6% |
| Shares outstanding | 14,184,000,000 | 14,184,000,000 | ➖ unchanged |
| Market capitalization | Rp128,365.2B (~$8.462B) | Rp69,927.7B | ✅ up 83.6% |
| Book value per share (total equity basis) | Rp976.75 | Rp954.90 | ✅ up |
| P/B» | ~9.27x | ~5.16x | ⚠️ up sharply |
A P/B nearly double the prior quarter's, on book value that only grew a few percent, confirms this quarter's move is almost entirely a price re-rating rather than a fundamentals-driven change in the underlying balance sheet.
| Sum-of-the-parts sanity check | 9M 2024 |
|---|---|
| Fast Food Indonesia stake, at market (Rp444/share, September 30, 2024) | ~Rp635.14 billion |
| Nippon Indosari Corpindo (Sari Roti) stake, at market (Rp995/share, September 30, 2024) | ~Rp1.587 trillion |
| Non-associate net assets (total equity less carrying value of all associate/JV investments) | ~Rp1.827 trillion |
| Sum, excluding Indomaret | ~Rp4.049 trillion |
| Company's market capitalization | Rp128.365 trillion |
| Implied value of 40% Indomaret stake | ~Rp124.316 trillion |
| Implied value of all of Indomaret | ~Rp310.790 trillion |
Both FAST's and ROTI's own September 30, 2024 closing prices are independently sourced spot data. The implied full value of Indomaret nearly doubled to roughly Rp310.8 trillion — from an already-elevated ~Rp164.7 trillion at H1 2024-end — almost entirely mechanical from DNET's own price move rather than any independently sourced change in Indomaret's own fundamentals (whose equity-method contribution, per the associate table above, grew a strong but far more modest 99.7% over the same nine-month window). A number this large, moving this fast, on one quarter of price action for a thinly-traded holding-company stock, is exactly the kind of output this method is meant to flag as a sentiment reading on DNET rather than a real estimate of Indomaret's worth — see the stock-price discussion above. A full discounted cash flow model still isn't attempted, for the reasons stated throughout this series.
PT Indoritel Makmur Internasional Tbk's consolidated financial statements for the nine months ended September 30, 2024 (with September 30, 2023 comparatives), including notes to the consolidated financial statements.