The Weakest Quarter This Backlog Has Recorded
The FY2023 deceleration this backlog tracked through Q1, H1, 9M, and the full year didn't stabilize in Q1 2024 — it got sharply worse. The Company's share of associate profit fell to just Rp8.862 billion, down 92.6% from Rp120.409 billion in Q1 2023, the weakest single quarter this backlog has on file for that line. Two things drove it: Indomaret's own contribution nearly halved, to Rp59.960 billion from Rp116.452 billion (-48.5%), continuing the reversal the FY2023 post first flagged as Indomaret's first-ever down year in this series; and Fast Food Indonesia's loss nearly tripled, to Rp70.322 billion from Rp7.907 billion — its worst quarterly loss on file, worse even than the Rp52.6 billion implied Q3 2023 standalone loss the Q3 2023 post called the backlog's low point at the time. Operating Income» fell 56.4% (Rp113.247 billion vs Rp259.443 billion) and net income attributable to owners fell 66.2% (Rp71.683 billion vs Rp211.904 billion).
FiberStar's own consolidated revenue kept growing, but only modestly this quarter (Rp345.207 billion, up 4.1% from Rp331.660 billion) — a real deceleration from the 40-50% growth rates this backlog tracked through most of 2023, and a sign the FiberStar-vs-associates divergence that's defined this series since Q1 2023 may be narrowing from the other direction: the consolidated business slowing down to meet the associates' weakness, rather than continuing to outrun it.
The Prescription
With Fast Food Indonesia now on its worst quarterly loss in this backlog's coverage and Indomaret in its second consecutive quarter of decline, the Company should be using its 35.84% board-level standing at Fast Food Indonesia to demand a concrete operational response, not another quiet equity-method write-through — the pattern flagged in the FY2023 post's Prescription has now gone a full quarter further without any visible change. What it should stop doing: letting FiberStar's own capital expenditure keep growing (see Key Financial Metrics) at a moment when both its revenue growth and the associate income supporting the rest of the balance sheet are both decelerating — a pause to reassess the buildout pace against a genuinely weaker quarter across the whole portfolio would be the more disciplined move than continuing on autopilot.
Key Financial Metrics
Q1 2024 vs. Q1 2023, consolidated
FX: IDR 15,848 = USD 1 (March 31, 2024 rate, independently sourced spot data).
| Metric | Q1 2024 (IDR) | Q1 2024 (USD) | Q1 2023 (IDR) | YoY |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue (FiberStar, consolidated) | Rp345.207B | ~$21.78M | Rp331.660B | ✅ +4.08% |
| Share of profit of associates» | Rp8.862B | ~$0.56M | Rp120.409B | ⚠️ -92.64% |
| Operating Income» | Rp113.247B | ~$7.14M | Rp259.443B | ⚠️ -56.35% |
| Net Income» (total, incl. NCI) | Rp84.823B | ~$5.35M | Rp236.090B | ⚠️ -64.07% |
| Net income attributable to owners | Rp71.683B | ~$4.52M | Rp211.904B | ⚠️ -66.17% |
| EPS (basic, quarterly) | Rp5.05 | ~$0.000319 | Rp14.94 | ⚠️ -66.20% |
| Operating cash flow | -Rp33.311B | ~-$2.10M | Rp120.486B | ⚠️ Swung negative |
| Free Cash Flow» (op. cash flow - capex) | -Rp182.718B | ~-$11.53M | -Rp126.418B | ⚠️ Burn widened 44.5% |
"Adjusted EBITDA" isn't a metric this Company reports and doesn't map cleanly onto a pure holding company's accounts — Operating Income above already embeds Rp8.9 billion of non-cash equity-method associate profit, so an add-back would double-count it, the same reasoning used throughout this series.
| Balance sheet | Mar 31, 2024 (IDR) | Mar 31, 2024 (USD) | Dec 31, 2023 (IDR) | QoQ |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total Assets | Rp20,441.445B | ~$1.290B | Rp20,710.860B | ⚠️ -1.30% |
| Total Liabilities | Rp7,280.830B | ~$459.4M | Rp7,637.304B | ✅ -4.67% |
| Total Equity | Rp13,160.615B | ~$830.4M | Rp13,073.556B | ✅ +0.67% |
| Cash and cash equivalents | Rp798.229B | ~$50.37M | Rp913.710B | ⚠️ -12.64% |
Operating cash flow swung negative this quarter (-Rp33.311 billion) after FY2023's strong turnaround (see the FY2023 post's recovery from -Rp65.131 billion to +Rp333.657 billion) — a reversal worth watching, though a single Q1 swing has happened before in this backlog without becoming a full-year pattern (Q1 2023 itself was strongly positive while FY2022's Q1 was much smaller). Capex kept rising in dollar/rupiah terms even as cash generation weakened, pushing free cash flow burn 44.5% wider year-over-year.
FiberStar's Segments: Corporate Still Leads, Cyberindo Concentration Collapses
| Segment | Q1 2024 Revenue | Q1 2023 Revenue | YoY | % of Total Q1 2024 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Corporate (third-party) | Rp201.325B | Rp173.575B | ✅ +15.98% | 58.3% |
| Retail (third-party) | Rp120.458B | Rp137.019B | ⚠️ -12.09% | 34.9% |
| Other (third-party) | Rp23.424B | Rp21.066B | ✅ +11.19% | 6.8% |
| Total | Rp345.207B | Rp331.660B | +4.08% | 100% |
This is the first quarter in this backlog where Retail's revenue fell year-over-year — a genuine reversal, not just a slower growth rate, and worth watching against the multi-year retail-broadband shift this series tracked through FY2021 and most of 2022-2023. Corporate's continued growth more than offset it, pushing Corporate's share of the mix to 58.3%, the highest reading anywhere in this backlog.
PT Cyberindo Aditama's revenue concentration collapsed to 30.38% of Q1 2024 revenue, down from 50.34% in Q1 2023 — the sharpest single-quarter change in this metric anywhere in this series. Cyberindo's own revenue fell in absolute terms too (Rp104.882 billion vs Rp166.958 billion, -37.2%), meaning this isn't just dilution from other customers growing faster; the Company's largest single customer genuinely spent less this quarter, even as total FiberStar revenue still grew (see Beyond the Usual).
Associates: Fast Food's Worst Quarter Yet, Indomaret Keeps Weakening
| Associate | Q1 2024 share of profit | Q1 2023 comparative | Carrying value, Mar 31, 2024 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Indomarco Prismatama (Indomaret) | Rp59.960B | Rp116.452B | Rp7,363.740B |
| Nippon Indosari Corpindo (Sari Roti) | Rp19.016B | Rp12.670B | Rp2,408.260B |
| Fast Food Indonesia (KFC) | -Rp70.322B | -Rp7.907B | Rp1,788.102B |
| Total (incl. JV) | Rp8.862B | Rp120.409B | ~Rp11,581B |
Sari Roti is the one bright spot, its contribution up 50.1% year-over-year and continuing to hold up better than the other two associates through this stretch of the backlog. Indomaret and Fast Food Indonesia moving in opposite directions from each other but the same direction on the net effect — Indomaret weaker, Fast Food much weaker — is what pulled the combined total down 92.6%.
Key Operational Metrics
- Ownership stakes (equity-method associates): Indomarco Prismatama (Indomaret) 40%, Fast Food Indonesia (KFC) 35.84%, Nippon Indosari Corpindo (Sari Roti) 25.77% — all unchanged
- FiberStar consolidation (MAP): 71.97% direct-plus-indirect (69.17% direct + 2.80% via PT Indoritel Persada Nusantara) as of March 31, 2024 — unchanged for the sixth straight quarter this backlog has recorded
- Cyberindo Aditama revenue concentration: 30.38% of Q1 2024 revenue vs. 50.34% (Q1 2023) — see Beyond the Usual
- Permanent headcount: 209 (March 31, 2024, unaudited) vs. 198 (Dec 31, 2023), ✅ +5.6%
- Not available this quarter: home-passed/home-connected subscriber counts, unchanged from the gap flagged in every prior post since FY2021
Beyond the Usual
Cyberindo Aditama's revenue fell 37% in a single quarter with no filed explanation
PT Cyberindo Aditama has been the Company's largest single customer throughout this entire backlog, disclosed every quarter at between 48% and 56% of FiberStar's total revenue. Its Q1 2024 revenue of Rp104.882 billion is down 37.2% from Rp166.958 billion in Q1 2023 — the sharpest single-quarter drop this concentration metric has shown, moving it from over half of total revenue to less than a third in one year. This filing discloses the number and the percentage but no explanation — whether Cyberindo shifted volume to a competing provider, renegotiated pricing, or wound down a specific service line. Given how much of FiberStar's revenue has run through this one customer relationship across this backlog's entire coverage, a change this large deserves tracking closely in the Q2 2024 post to see whether it's a one-quarter timing effect or the start of a genuine customer-concentration unwind.
Fast Food Indonesia's loss nearly tripled to a new backlog-wide quarterly low
Fast Food Indonesia's Q1 2024 equity-method loss of Rp70.322 billion is the worst single-quarter result this backlog has directly observed for this associate — worse than the implied Rp52.6 billion Q3 2023 standalone loss the Q3 2023 post flagged at the time, and nearly nine times Q1 2023's own Rp7.907 billion loss. This is now the fourth consecutive quarter of year-over-year deterioration at this associate (see the FY2023 post's full-year read), with no disclosed driver in any filing this backlog has reviewed.
Target Valuation Range
Bottom line: the stock held flat through Q1 2024 (Rp4,700, unchanged from FY2023-end) despite the sharpest quarterly earnings decline this backlog has recorded — a price that simply didn't react to genuinely bad news, which is itself worth noting rather than reading as calm confidence.
The Company's shares closed Q1 2024 at Rp4,700 (independently sourced spot data for March 31, 2024), flat against Rp4,700 at the end of FY2023. No stock split has occurred for this ticker in the period covered by this backlog.
| Market cap → book value | Q1 2024 | FY2023 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Share price (period-end) | Rp4,700 | Rp4,700 | ➖ unchanged |
| Shares outstanding | 14,184,000,000 | 14,184,000,000 | ➖ unchanged |
| Market capitalization | Rp66,664.8B (~$4.207B) | Rp66,664.8B | ➖ unchanged |
| Book value per share (total equity basis) | Rp927.79 | Rp921.65 | ✅ up |
| P/B» | ~5.07x | ~5.10x | ✅ down slightly |
A trailing-twelve-month P/E isn't shown this quarter since Q1 2024's quarterly EPS isn't directly comparable to FY2023's annual figure — the Q2 and Q3 2024 posts will build toward a cleaner trailing figure as the year accumulates.
| Sum-of-the-parts sanity check | Q1 2024 |
|---|---|
| Fast Food Indonesia stake, at market (Rp770/share, March 31, 2024) | ~Rp1.102 trillion |
| Nippon Indosari Corpindo (Sari Roti) stake, at market (Rp1,175/share, March 31, 2024) | ~Rp1.873 trillion |
| Non-associate net assets (total equity less carrying value of all associate/JV investments) | ~Rp1.580 trillion |
| Sum, excluding Indomaret | ~Rp4.555 trillion |
| Company's market capitalization | Rp66.665 trillion |
| Implied value of 40% Indomaret stake | ~Rp62.110 trillion |
| Implied value of all of Indomaret | ~Rp155.275 trillion |
Both FAST's and ROTI's own March 31, 2024 closing prices are independently sourced spot data. The implied full value of Indomaret held essentially flat at roughly Rp155.3 trillion (against FY2023's ~Rp155.7 trillion), consistent with an unchanged DNET share price this quarter — not a signal about Indomaret's own results, which per the associate table above actually weakened further. A full discounted cash flow model still isn't attempted, for the reasons stated throughout this series.
PT Indoritel Makmur Internasional Tbk's consolidated financial statements for the three months ended March 31, 2024 (with March 31, 2023 comparatives), including notes to the consolidated financial statements.