Profit Outran the Business Again - Then Cash Flow Broke
This is PT Sumber Alfaria Trijaya Tbk's unaudited interim consolidated financial statements for the three months ended March 31, 2023, authorized for issue by the Board of Directors on April 27, 2023. The headline: net revenue rose 14.22% to Rp26,167,071 million, from Rp22,908,620 million, and net income attributable to owners rose 14.80% to Rp775,829 million, from Rp675,806 million (see Key Financial Metrics) - a far more evenly matched growth pair than Q3 2022's 96.01% profit spike on 2.75% segment growth, but the mechanism underneath is still familiar: combined segment income grew just 4.91% year-over-year (see Segments Compared) while unallocated corporate overhead fell 11.65%, meaning overhead discipline - not the stores themselves - is still doing more of the lifting than the headline profit number suggests.
The quarter's real story, though, isn't in the income statement at all. Net cash from operating activities swung to -Rp46,710 million, from +Rp740,880 million a year earlier - a Rp787,590 million reversal in the same quarter net income to owners grew. The mechanism is straightforward and seasonal: inventories jumped 49.49% from December 2022 (Rp13,645,521 million from Rp9,128,428 million) as the company stocked ahead of Ramadan and Lebaran (which fell in April 2023, just after this quarter closed - a retailer's classic pre-holiday build, and worth reading against FY2021's Q1 post, where a similar inventory build also dragged free cash flow down even as profit surged), while income tax payments jumped 74.95% (Rp374,914 million from Rp214,307 million). Free cash flow» followed the operating cash line down, swinging to -Rp485,382 million from +Rp309,924 million a year earlier - the widest FCF swing this site has recorded for the company in a single quarter, and a reminder that a healthy-looking profit line can still sit on top of a working-capital story that looks nothing like it.
The Prescription
Alfamart's overhead discipline is real and has now held across multiple quarters in a row, but management should stop letting it be the primary explanation for profit outpacing the business - a company whose combined segment income grows 4.91% while net income to owners grows 14.80% is still, structurally, the same pattern Q3 2022 flagged as a profit-quality concern, just at a smaller and less alarming scale this time. What management should stop doing is simpler and unrelated to the seasonality: stop letting the up-to-5-billion-share rights issue mandate go unaddressed, now nearly a full year past its own regulatory deadline, in a fifth consecutive filing since the annual report that said nothing about it at all (see Beyond the Usual). The pre-Ramadan inventory build that broke this quarter's cash flow is a normal, explainable seasonal pattern - the mandate's silence is not seasonal, and has no such explanation offered anywhere in this document.
Key Financial Metrics
Q1 2023 vs. Q1 2022 (P&L and cash flow), March 2023 vs. December 2022 (balance sheet) - consolidated, unaudited
FX: IDR 15,062 = USD 1 (Bank Indonesia's period-end exchange rate as of March 31, 2023, per the filing's own foreign-currency policy note) - a Rupiah appreciation from the Rp15,731 this same filing's own comparative column now states for December 31, 2022, a figure that differs from the Rp15,174 the FY2022 annual report itself disclosed for that identical date (see Beyond the Usual).
| Metric | Q1 2023 (IDR) | Q1 2023 (USD) | Q1 2022 (IDR) | YoY |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net Revenue | Rp26,167,071M | ~$1,737.3M | Rp22,908,620M | ✅ +14.22% |
| Gross Profit | Rp5,695,537M | ~$378.2M | Rp4,923,284M | ✅ +15.69% |
| Income from Operations ("Operating Income") | Rp1,015,454M | ~$67.4M | Rp893,194M | ✅ +13.69% |
| Income Before Final Tax and Corporate Income Tax | Rp983,946M | ~$65.3M | Rp855,728M | ✅ +15.0% |
| Income for the Period (total) | Rp791,138M | ~$52.5M | Rp688,048M | ✅ +14.98% |
| Net Income (attributable to owners) | Rp775,829M | ~$51.5M | Rp675,806M | ✅ +14.80% |
| EPS | Rp18.68 | ~$0.00124 | Rp16.27 | ✅ +14.81% |
| EBITDA» (Operating Income + D&A) | Rp1,889,584M | ~$125.4M | Rp1,685,789M | ✅ +12.09% |
| Balance sheet metric | Mar 2023 (IDR) | Mar 2023 (USD) | Dec 2022 (IDR) | Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total Assets | Rp36,054,102M | ~$2,393.6M | Rp30,746,266M | ✅ +17.27% |
| Total Liabilities | Rp23,969,511M | ~$1,591.4M | Rp19,275,574M | ⚠️ +24.36% |
| Total Equity (attributable to owners) | Rp11,820,117M | ~$784.7M | Rp11,221,527M | ✅ +5.33% |
| Total Cash (incl. time deposits) | Rp2,634,945M | ~$174.9M | Rp3,818,601M | ⚠️ -31.00% |
"Adjusted EBITDA»" remains a metric Alfamart doesn't report; the EBITDA line above is Income from Operations plus depreciation and amortization (Rp874,130M for Q1 2023, per the segment note, versus Rp792,595M for Q1 2022).
Free cash flow (net cash from operating activities minus capex - "acquisition of fixed assets" only, same basis as prior posts) swung to -Rp485,382M, from +Rp309,924M in Q1 2022 - net cash from operating activities alone swung to -Rp46,710M from +Rp740,880M, a Rp787,590M reversal (see opening section above for the inventory-build mechanism). Cash receipts from customers grew 15.73% (Rp26,297,256M from Rp22,723,313M) while cash payments to suppliers grew faster, 20.62% (Rp22,261,447M from Rp18,455,215M) - a widening gap, the opposite direction from FY2022's narrowing one. Capex on fixed assets rose 4.35% (Rp438,672M from Rp430,956M), a much smaller increase than the store-network's own 9.57% growth (see Key Operational Metrics) would suggest, consistent with most of the quarter's cash drain coming from inventory rather than expansion spending.
Debt-to-Equity Ratio (DER)» (interest-bearing debt - short and long-term bank loans and consumer financing payables, excluding the right-of-use lease liability, on the same basis as prior posts; no bonds remain outstanding): 0.12x at March 2023, down from 0.14x at December 2022. Total interest-bearing debt stood at approximately Rp1,419,060 million (short-term bank loans of Rp788,118M, the current portion of long-term bank loans of Rp129,933M, and non-current bank loans of Rp501,009M), down 9.35% from the December 2022 balance despite the quarter's cash strain. ⚠️ Net gearing pulled back from its strongest-ever net-cash reading: roughly -0.20x (net cash) at December 2022 to roughly -0.10x (net cash) at March 2023 - still a net-cash position, but less net-cash-heavy than any quarter-end this site has recorded since September 2022's roughly -0.05x, as the cash balance itself fell 31.00% funding the inventory build.
Key Operational Metrics
- Store network: 21,288 consolidated stores (Alfamart, Alfamidi, Lawson-Alfamidi Fresh-Alfa Supermarket, Dan+Dan, and STL stock points, per the company's own presentation) as of March 2023, up 9.57% from 19,429 a year earlier at Q1 2022 - management's own presentation reports 490 net new stores added across all banners in the quarter alone (322 Alfamart, 131 Lawson, 14 Alfamidi, 10 Dan+Dan, 10 STL, 3 Alfamidi Fresh/Alfa Supermarket).
- Permanent employees: 83,877 as of March 2023, up 3.00% from 81,432 at December 2022 per this filing's own comparative column - a figure that itself differs slightly from the 81,505 the FY2022 annual report disclosed for that same December 2022 date (a 73-person, 0.09% gap, likely a scope or rounding difference between the two filings' headcount disclosures rather than anything material).
- Market share: Alfamart's share of total Indonesia grocery rose to 12.9%, from 11.7% a year earlier - a genuine reversal after four consecutive periods of total-grocery share pullback this site tracked from Q1 2022 through FY2022. Share of Modern Trade rose to 27.2% (from 24.5%), and share of Modern Trade Minimarket rose to 34.1% (from 30.9%) - all three of the company's own market-share readings moved in the same direction this quarter, unlike the split pattern (total share falling, addressable-market share rising) recorded in every prior quarter this site has covered.
Segment Performance
Alfamart reports the same three geographic segments as every prior post - Jabodetabek (greater Jakarta), Java excluding Jabodetabek, and Outside Java. Figures below use each segment's external revenue, for the three months ended March 31.
| Segment | Revenue (Q1 2023) | Revenue (Q1 2022) | YoY | Segment Income (Q1 2023) | Segment Income (Q1 2022) | YoY | Margin (2023 vs 2022) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jabodetabek | Rp7,443,967M | Rp6,670,197M | ✅ +11.60% | Rp279,465M | Rp240,564M | ✅ +16.17% | ✅ 3.75% vs 3.61% |
| Java (excl. Jabodetabek) | Rp10,131,813M | Rp8,773,527M | ✅ +15.48% | Rp607,302M | Rp587,185M | ⚠️ +3.43% | ⚠️ 5.99% vs 6.69% |
| Outside Java | Rp8,591,291M | Rp7,464,896M | ✅ +15.09% | Rp547,010M | Rp538,906M | ⚠️ +1.50% | ⚠️ 6.37% vs 7.22% |
Only Jabodetabek gained margin this quarter - the same segment that, standalone in Q4 2022, was one of the two segments gaining margin while Java excluding Jabodetabek was the sole loser. This quarter inverts that pattern almost exactly: Java excluding Jabodetabek and Outside Java both lost margin (down 0.70 and 0.85 percentage points respectively), while Jabodetabek gained (up 0.14 points). A different pair of segments has now lost margin in three of the last four quarters this site has isolated - Q3 2022 (Java ex-Jabodetabek, Outside Java), Q4 2022 (Java ex-Jabodetabek only), and now Q1 2023 (Java ex-Jabodetabek, Outside Java again) - which argues against reading any single quarter's margin loser as a structural, one-segment problem, but does mean Java excluding Jabodetabek has now lost margin standalone in three of the last four quarters tracked, the most persistent pattern of the three regions.
Segments Compared
Combined segment income grew 4.91% year-over-year (Rp1,366,655M to Rp1,433,777M) - a sharp deceleration from Q4 2022 standalone's 30.70% growth, though that comparison isn't quite apples-to-apples since Q4 is typically the strongest quarter for corporate overhead true-ups (see below). Unallocated corporate overhead fell 11.65% (Rp473,461M to Rp418,323M) - overhead's share of combined segment income fell to 29.18%, from 34.65% a year earlier, continuing the multi-year decline this site has tracked since FY2019, but still meaningfully higher than Q4 2022 standalone's unusually low 2.22% (consistent with Q4's year-end accrual true-up, not a genuine change in the underlying quarterly overhead run-rate). Net income to owners grew nearly three times faster than combined segment income this quarter (14.80% vs 4.91%) - a smaller gap than Q3 2022's notorious 96.01% vs 2.75%, but the same underlying mechanism: overhead discipline, not segment growth, explaining most of the difference between the two growth rates.
Beyond the Usual
The rights issue mandate stays unaddressed for a fifth straight filing since the annual report went completely silent
Shareholders approved the up-to-5-billion-share Capital Increase with Pre-emptive Rights (HMETD) at the May 6, 2021 Extraordinary General Meeting - a mandate this site has now tracked across nine consecutive filings: H1 2021 and 9M 2021 (undisclosed), FY2021 ("has not been implemented in 2021 considering the current situation and condition in 2021," with no further detail), Q1 2022 through FY2022 (silent across four consecutive filings, the FY2022 annual report not even repeating FY2021's one-line acknowledgment), and now this filing. Under Indonesia's OJK Regulation No. 32/POJK.04/2015, a public company has 12 months from shareholder approval to obtain the regulator's declaration of effectiveness for a rights issue - meaning this mandate's regulatory window closed on May 6, 2022. This filing was authorized for issue on April 27, 2023 - nearly 11.7 months (356 days) past that deadline - and, like every filing since the FY2021 annual report, contains no reference anywhere to the rights issue having lapsed, been extended, been formally cancelled, or been replaced by a fresh shareholder approval. The Company's own public-offering history note again stops at the June 2015 non-preemptive rights issue, still never mentioning the May 2021 approval at all. The issued share count remains unchanged at 41,524,501,700, the same figure disclosed at every quarter since the approval. Nearly two full years after shareholders approved this mandate, and nearly a full year past its own regulatory deadline, the Company has now filed five consecutive interim and annual reports without a single word of explanation.
The Bank Aladin stake's unrealized loss deepened further at quarter-end - but partially recovered by the time the filing was authorized
The Rp500,000 million stake in PT Bank Aladin Syariah Tbk, first flagged at H1 2022 and tracked through its first unrealized loss at FY2022 (-16.76% to -28.53% depending on measurement date), shows a further-widened accumulated unrealized fair-value loss of Rp147,058 million at March 31, 2023 (up from Rp83,823 million at December 31, 2022), bringing the carrying value down to Rp352,942 million - a 29.41% paper loss on the original Rp500,000 million investment, worse than any prior quarter this site has recorded for the stake. But the note also discloses that "as of the date near completion of these consolidated financial statements" (close to the April 27, 2023 authorization date, not the March 31, 2023 reporting date), Bank Aladin's share price implied a carrying value of Rp405,883 million - actually higher than the period-end figure, meaning the stock partially recovered in the roughly four weeks between quarter-end and filing. This is the first time this site has recorded the stake's near-filing-date value moving in the opposite direction from its period-end value, a reminder that the fair-value swings on this position can run either way within a single reporting cycle.
The FY2022 annual report and this quarter's interim filing disagree on what December 2022's own USD exchange rate was
This filing's own foreign-currency policy note states the Bank Indonesia exchange rate used for December 31, 2022 was Rp15,731 = USD 1 - but the FY2022 annual report itself, covering the identical date, disclosed Rp15,174 = USD 1 from the same policy note in that filing. That's a 3.67% difference between two of the Company's own filings stating the same Bank Indonesia rate for the same day, large enough to move USD-converted figures if applied inconsistently. Both filings use the same descriptive language ("the average of transaction exchange rate...published by Bank Indonesia"), so this isn't an obvious difference in methodology stated on the page - just two different numbers for the same disclosure. This post uses each filing's own contemporaneously-stated rate for that filing's own figures, per this site's standard methodology, but a reader comparing USD figures across the two posts should know the underlying rate itself moved between filings, not just the currency.
Related-party purchases fell as a share of total purchases, reversing a four-consecutive-period growth trend
Net purchases from PT Atri Distribusindo, PT Yamazaki Indonesia, and PT Alfindo LF Makmur totaled Rp183,512 million for the quarter, 0.73% of total net purchases - down from 1.00% a year earlier (Rp212,898 million) and down further from FY2022's 1.09%. This reverses a trend this site tracked growing in every period from Q1 2022 (1.00% vs 0.86%) through FY2022 (1.09% vs 0.94%) - the first quarter-over-quarter decline in this share since the site began tracking it, though still too early to call it a reversed direction rather than a one-quarter dip.
Coverage Table
| Metric | Q1 2023 | Q1 2022 | YoY | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net Revenue | Rp26,167,071M | Rp22,908,620M | ✅ +14.2% | Roughly in line with FY2022's 14.2% full-year pace, no deceleration at the top line |
| Net Income (to owners) | Rp775,829M | Rp675,806M | ✅ +14.8% | Growing faster than segments (+4.9%), the same overhead-driven pattern flagged since Q3 2022 |
| Net cash from operating activities | -Rp46,710M | +Rp740,880M | 🔴 swung negative | A Rp787,590M reversal, driven by a 49.5% pre-Ramadan inventory build |
| Free cash flow | -Rp485,382M | +Rp309,924M | 🔴 swung negative | The widest single-quarter FCF swing this site has recorded for the company |
| Market share (total Indonesia) | 12.9% | 11.7% | ✅ improved | First gain after four straight quarters of pullback tracked since Q1 2022 |
| Rights issue disclosure | Zero mentions | Zero mentions | 🔴 unchanged | Fifth consecutive silent filing since the annual report's total silence, now ~11.7 months past deadline |
Target Valuation Range
Enterprise value ~Rp118.37 trillion (~$7.86B), implying 16.35x EV/EBITDA and a trailing P/E of ~40.5x - up sharply over the trailing two years, and every multiple this site tracks has re-rated further this quarter, even as free cash flow turned negative. That combination argues for caution rather than a further re-rating, until cash generation actually recovers past the seasonal inventory build.
Alfamart's shares closed at Rp2,880 on March 31, 2023 - up 8.68% from Rp2,650 at December 2022, and up 89.47% from Rp1,520 a year earlier at Q1 2022. No stock split has occurred since 2013, so no price adjustment is needed.
| Market cap → enterprise value | Q1 2023 |
|---|---|
| Share price (period-end) | Rp2,880 |
| Shares outstanding | 41,524,501,700 |
| Market capitalization | Rp119.59 trillion (~$7.94B) |
| Plus: interest-bearing debt | Rp1.42 trillion |
| Less: cash and equivalents | Rp2.63 trillion |
| Enterprise value | Rp118.37 trillion (~$7.86B) |
| Peer-multiple sanity check | FY2022 | Q1 2023 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Trailing P/E | ~38.5x | ~40.5x | ⚠️ up |
| EV/EBITDA | ~15.32x | ~16.35x | ⚠️ up |
| P/B | ~9.81x | ~10.12x | ⚠️ up |
Trailing P/E (using trailing-twelve-month net income attributable to owners of approximately Rp2,955,307 million: FY2022's Rp2,855,284 million, less the already-published Q1 2022 figure, plus this quarter's Rp775,829 million) rose as the share price's 8.68% quarterly gain outpaced TTM earnings growth. EV/EBITDA (against trailing-twelve-month EBITDA of approximately Rp7,239,622 million: FY2022's Rp7,035,827 million, less Q1 2022's Rp1,685,789 million, plus this quarter's Rp1,889,584 million) rose as both the price gain and this quarter's weaker net-cash position (see Key Financial Metrics) pushed enterprise value higher relative to EBITDA. P/B (book value of approximately Rp11,820,117 million equity attributable to owners ÷ 41.52 billion shares) rose as the price gain outpaced this quarter's equity growth.
No listed domestic peer still exists for a direct minimarket-format comparison - Indomaret remains privately held under the Salim Group. A full DCF still isn't included here: every multiple this site tracks re-rated further this quarter even as free cash flow turned negative, and the rights issue mandate's continued silence (see Beyond the Usual) leaves an unresolved capital-structure question a forward model would need to take a view on either way. The share price moved within a Rp905-Rp3,090 range across the trailing two years to this quarter-end (based on month-end closes) - a 241.44% peak-to-trough swing, narrower than FY2022's trailing-two-year window only because that low-Rp780 reading has now rolled out of the two-year lookback, not because the stock has actually become less volatile.
PT Sumber Alfaria Trijaya Tbk's unaudited interim consolidated financial statements as of March 31, 2023 and for the three months then ended; the Company's corresponding investor presentation as of March 2023.