The Widening Gap Between Jakarta and Everywhere Else
This is PT Sumber Alfaria Trijaya Tbk's unaudited interim consolidated financial statements for the nine months ended September 30, 2024, authorized for issue by the Board of Directors on October 30, 2024. The headline: net revenue rose 10.24% to Rp88,217,081 million, from Rp80,024,668 million, and net income attributable to owners rose 9.52% to Rp2,398,825 million, from Rp2,190,235 million (see Key Financial Metrics).
The H1 2024 post tracked Jabodetabek's standalone segment income falling 15.31% year-over-year in Q2 2024 alone, the third consecutive standalone-quarter decline for the capital region and asked whether the pattern would ease or keep accelerating. It kept accelerating, sharply. Deriving the standalone third quarter by subtracting the already-published H1 2024 figures from this filing's nine-month total, Jabodetabek's segment income fell 32.66% year-over-year in Q3 2024 alone (Rp164,281 million from Rp243,956 million) - the fourth consecutive standalone-quarter decline for the region, and the sharpest since Q4 2023's 39.49% collapse. Jabodetabek's standalone revenue still grew 6.38%, so this isn't a sales problem - it's a cost or margin problem specific to the region. Java (excl. Jabodetabek)'s standalone growth also nearly stalled this quarter (+1.66%, down sharply from double-digit growth in the prior two quarters), while Outside Java kept growing standalone segment income at a healthy +17.89% clip (see Segment Performance).
None of this showed up in how the market priced the stock. Alfamart's shares closed the quarter at Rp3,160 on September 30, 2024 - a new high across the trailing two years to this quarter-end, up 14.9% from Rp2,750 at H1 2024 even as trailing earnings barely moved (see Target Valuation Range). The other H1 story kept improving: interest-bearing bank debt, which had already fallen 62.0% by June, is now fully eliminated - every facility across the parent and subsidiary MIDI shows a zero drawn balance at September 30, 2024, down from Rp57,104 million three months earlier (see Beyond the Usual).
The Prescription
Alfamart's growth story has now visibly split into two: Java (excl. Jabodetabek) and Outside Java together still generated combined standalone segment income growth of roughly 10% this quarter, while Jabodetabek posted its second-worst standalone quarter on record. Management should stop treating Jabodetabek as a single "capital region" line item in the segment note and start disclosing what's actually driving four consecutive quarters of income deterioration there - rising rent or labor costs in the country's most competitive minimarket market, cannibalization from its own store density, or a genuine competitive loss to a format this site hasn't yet been able to name from the filing alone. A company that itemizes a single bank's negative-pledge clause to the paragraph has the disclosure muscle to explain what's actually happening in its most economically important region; four quarters of unexplained decline without a word on the cause is the one thing this filing should have changed and didn't. What it should keep doing is exactly what it did with debt this quarter - go all the way, not partway, once a problem is identified, the same discipline that took interest-bearing debt from Rp150,116 million to zero within three quarters.
Key Financial Metrics
9M 2024 vs. 9M 2023 (P&L and cash flow), September 2024 vs. December 2023 (balance sheet) - consolidated, unaudited
FX: IDR 15,629 = USD 1 (the exchange rate at the reporting date, per the filing's own monetary-assets-in-foreign-currency note). Balance-sheet comparatives are shown in IDR only, consistent with prior posts' convention.
| Metric | 9M 2024 (IDR) | 9M 2024 (USD) | 9M 2023 (IDR) | YoY |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net Revenue | Rp88,217,081M | ~$5,645.0M | Rp80,024,668M | ✅ +10.24% |
| Gross Profit | Rp18,868,830M | ~$1,207.3M | Rp16,897,310M | ✅ +11.67% |
| Income from Operations ("Operating Income") | Rp3,105,458M | ~$198.7M | Rp2,881,062M | ✅ +7.79% ⚠️ margin 3.52% vs 3.60% |
| Income Before Final Tax and Corporate Income Tax | Rp3,111,036M | ~$199.1M | Rp2,802,294M | ✅ +11.02% |
| Income for the Period (total) | Rp2,476,301M | ~$158.4M | Rp2,255,389M | ✅ +9.79% |
| Net Income (attributable to owners) | Rp2,398,825M | ~$153.5M | Rp2,190,235M | ✅ +9.52% ⚠️ margin 2.72% vs 2.74% |
| EPS | Rp57.77 | ~$0.0037 | Rp52.75 | ✅ +9.52% |
| EBITDA» (Operating Income + D&A) | Rp6,181,867M | ~$395.6M | Rp5,591,959M | ✅ +10.55% |
| Balance sheet metric | Sep 2024 (IDR) | Sep 2024 (USD) | Dec 2023 (IDR) | Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total Assets | Rp36,638,355M | ~$2,344.5M | Rp34,246,183M | ✅ +6.99% |
| Total Liabilities | Rp19,853,697M | ~$1,270.3M | Rp18,540,983M | ⚠️ +7.08% |
| Total Equity (attributable to owners) | Rp15,520,592M | ~$993.0M | Rp14,473,429M | ✅ +7.24% |
| Total Cash (incl. time deposits) | Rp4,160,715M | ~$266.2M | Rp4,074,530M | ✅ +2.12% |
"Adjusted EBITDA»" remains a metric Alfamart doesn't report; the EBITDA line above is Income from Operations plus depreciation and amortization (Rp3,076,409M for 9M 2024, per the segment note, versus Rp2,710,897M for 9M 2023).
Free cash flow (net cash from operating activities minus capex - "acquisition of fixed assets" only, same basis as prior posts): rose to +Rp3,752,934M, up 51.68% from +Rp2,474,331M a year earlier - a much larger jump than the headline profit growth. Net cash from operating activities rose 40.72% to +Rp5,690,889M (from +Rp4,044,418M), while capex on fixed assets grew a slower 23.43% to Rp1,937,955M (from Rp1,570,087M). Subtracting the already-published H1 2024 FCF of +Rp1,586,642M implies the standalone third quarter alone contributed roughly +Rp2,166,292 million - more than double Q3 2023's standalone contribution of roughly +Rp919,543 million (9M 2023's +Rp2,474,331M less H1 2023's +Rp1,554,788M). The swing traces almost entirely to operating cash flow, not capex discipline: standalone Q3 operating cash flow nearly doubled (+89.5%, to roughly +Rp2,936,735M from +Rp1,549,653M), while standalone Q3 capex on fixed assets actually grew 22.3% (to roughly Rp770,443M from Rp630,110M). Cash receipts from customers grew a healthy 9.81% in the standalone quarter (roughly Rp29,959,960M from Rp27,283,105M).
Debt-to-Equity Ratio (DER)» (interest-bearing debt - short and long-term bank loans and consumer financing payables, excluding the right-of-use lease liability, on the same basis as prior posts; no bonds remain outstanding): effectively zero at September 2024 - interest-bearing debt fell to just Rp92 million (entirely consumer financing payables; short-term bank loans are Rp0 across every facility, parent and subsidiary alike), down from Rp62,919 million at December 2023 and from H1 2024's Rp57,104 million (see Beyond the Usual). Net gearing deepened further into net-cash territory, to roughly -0.27x at September 2024, from -0.18x at H1 2024 ✅ - the combination of debt going to essentially zero and cash continuing to grow.
Key Operational Metrics
- Store network: 23,255 consolidated stores (Alfamart, Alfamidi, Lawson, and Dan+Dan, per the company's own presentation) as of September 2024, up 4.24% from 22,310 at December 2023 and up 296 stores from H1 2024's 22,959 - a net addition of 945 stores year-to-date, including 293 new franchise stores. Franchise stores (5,500) grew 5.63% from December 2023's 5,207, faster than company-owned stores' (17,755) 3.81% growth. Geographically, Greater Jakarta's share of the total store count fell further to 25.9%, from 26.9% at December 2023 and 26.3% at H1 2024 - the store network's geographic mix keeps shifting away from the region posting the income declines, while Outer Islands rose to 33.4%.
- Market share: Alfamart's share of total Indonesia grocery rose to 13.9%, from 13.1% a year earlier (YTD September 2024 vs. YTD September 2023, per the company's own presentation, using Nielsen data covering 68 grocery categories). Share of Modern Trade rose to 28.4% (from 27.4%), and share of Modern Trade Minimarket rose to 35.1% (from 34.1%) - each gain slightly smaller in percentage-point terms than H1 2024's YTD June reading, though still a genuine multi-year gain in every measure.
- Permanent employees: 92,771, up 6.46% from 87,142 at December 2023 - the first time in several quarters this filing's notes disclose a headcount figure at all; H1 2024 reported "not available" for the same line.
Segment Performance
Alfamart reports the same three geographic segments as every prior post - Jabodetabek (greater Jakarta), Java excluding Jabodetabek, and Outside Java. Unlike H1 2024, this filing's nine-month 2023 comparative figures match exactly what this site originally reported for 9M 2023 - no restatement discrepancy this quarter (see Beyond the Usual).
| Segment | External Revenue (9M 2024) | External Revenue (9M 2023) | YoY | Segment Income (9M 2024) | Segment Income (9M 2023) | YoY | Margin (2024 vs 2023) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jabodetabek | Rp24,130,518M | Rp22,836,129M | ✅ +5.67% | Rp660,278M | Rp792,513M | 🔴 -16.69% | ⚠️ 2.74% vs 3.47% |
| Java (excl. Jabodetabek) | Rp32,746,802M | Rp30,148,849M | ✅ +8.62% | Rp1,970,508M | Rp1,842,866M | ✅ +6.93% | ⚠️ 6.02% vs 6.11% |
| Outside Java | Rp31,339,761M | Rp27,039,690M | ✅ +15.91% | Rp1,746,368M | Rp1,494,258M | ✅ +16.87% | ✅ 5.57% vs 5.53% |
The nine-month view already shows Jabodetabek losing both income and margin on a cumulative basis, but it understates how much the quarter itself deteriorated. Deriving the standalone third quarter (9M 2024 less the already-published H1 2024 figures, against 9M 2023 less the already-published H1 2023 figures) shows:
| Segment | Revenue (Q3 2024 standalone) | Revenue (Q3 2023 standalone) | YoY | Segment Income (Q3 2024 standalone) | Segment Income (Q3 2023 standalone) | YoY |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jabodetabek | Rp7,999,516M | Rp7,520,019M | ✅ +6.38% | Rp164,281M | Rp243,956M | 🔴 -32.66% |
| Java (excl. Jabodetabek) | Rp10,351,873M | Rp9,593,964M | ✅ +7.90% | Rp618,955M | Rp608,846M | ⚠️ +1.66% |
| Outside Java | Rp10,646,559M | Rp9,076,816M | ✅ +17.29% | Rp450,183M | Rp381,875M | ✅ +17.89% |
Jabodetabek's standalone-quarter decline accelerated again, from Q2 2024's 15.31% to Q3 2024's 32.66% - the fourth consecutive standalone quarter of decline for the capital region (after Q4 2023's 39.49% collapse, Q1 2024's 4.06%, and Q2 2024's 15.31%), and the second-worst standalone quarter this site has recorded for the region. Java (excl. Jabodetabek) is the new development this quarter: its standalone segment income growth nearly stalled at +1.66%, down sharply from Q2 2024's +9.06% and Q1 2024's pace, even though standalone revenue kept growing a healthy 7.90% - a margin story, not a sales one, for a second segment now. Outside Java remains the one segment showing no sign of strain, growing standalone segment income double-digits for a fourth straight quarter.
Segments Compared
Combined segment income grew 5.99% year-over-year on a cumulative nine-month basis (Rp4,129,637M to Rp4,377,154M) - a deceleration from H1 2024's 8.60% (on that filing's own comparative basis), consistent with Jabodetabek's worsening standalone quarter dragging the cumulative figure down further. Unallocated corporate overhead rose a more modest 1.85% (Rp1,248,575M to Rp1,271,696M), a slower pace than H1 2024's 5.10% overhead growth on the same restated comparative. Net income to owners grew faster than combined segment income (9.52% vs 5.99%), and the gap traces mostly to non-operating items: finance cost fell 29.83% (Rp130,954M to Rp91,889M), finance income rose 49.55% (Rp50,465M to Rp75,475M), and the Group's share of associates' results improved further to a Rp21,992M gain from a Rp1,721M gain a year earlier - continuing the improvement H1 2024 first flagged.
Beyond the Usual
The rights issue mandate stays unaddressed for a fifteenth consecutive filing
Shareholders approved the up-to-5-billion-share Capital Increase with Pre-emptive Rights (HMETD) at the May 6, 2021 Extraordinary General Meeting - a mandate this site has now tracked across fifteen consecutive filings, most recently H1 2024 (silent, like every filing since the FY2021 annual report stopped acknowledging it). This filing was authorized for issue on October 30, 2024 - roughly 908 days (about 29.8 months) past the mandate's own May 6, 2022 regulatory deadline under OJK Regulation No. 32/POJK.04/2015 - and, like every filing since, contains no reference anywhere to the rights issue having lapsed, been extended, been formally cancelled, or been replaced by a fresh shareholder approval. The issued share count remains unchanged at 41,524,501,700, the same figure disclosed at every quarter since the approval was granted.
The Bank Aladin stake's paper loss deepened again, though the near-filing-date reading improved for the first time
The Rp500,000 million stake in PT Bank Aladin Syariah Tbk, first flagged at H1 2022 and tracked through H1 2024's 45.88% period-end reading, shows an accumulated unrealized fair-value loss of Rp251,470 million at September 30, 2024 - a 50.29% paper loss, the deepest period-end reading this site has recorded for the stake. This time, though, the note's near-filing-date reading (close to the October 30, 2024 authorization date) implies a carrying value of Rp250,000 million on a Rp850-per-share market price - a 50.00% loss from cost, marginally better than the period-end figure, breaking the pattern of the near-date mark landing worse than the period-end reading that this site had observed across the five previous filings.
The related-party building lease to PIM rose again, extending H1's reversal
Following H1 2024's reversal, the lease liability to PT Perkasa Internusa Mandiri ("PIM"), an entity under common control that the Company rents building space, equipment, and services from, rose again to Rp104,934 million (0.29% of total consolidated liabilities) at September 30, 2024 - up 9.42% from H1 2024's Rp95,902 million, though still below December 2023's Rp98,943 million as a share of total liabilities (0.29% versus 0.53%). The liability has now moved in a different direction in three of the last four quarters this site has tracked, still with no explanation offered in any filing.
Short-term bank debt was eliminated entirely across every facility
Building on H1 2024's consolidation of a dozen relationship-bank loans into a single Rp57,000 million MUFG revolving facility at subsidiary MIDI, that balance too was fully repaid by September 30, 2024. Every credit facility this filing itemizes - at both the parent Company (BCA, Mandiri, BTPN, BNI, MUFG, aggregate limits of Rp8,650,000 million) and MIDI (BCA, Mandiri, MUFG, aggregate limits of Rp2,000,000 million) - shows a zero drawn balance at both September 30, 2024 and, in most cases, December 31, 2023. The Company's own notes confirm all facilities remain unsecured (no collateral, no guarantee from any party) and fully available, unused.
Franchise revenue kept growing faster than overall net revenue, and the gap widened further
Net revenue from franchises reached Rp16,050,019 million for 9M 2024, up 12.42% from Rp14,276,745 million in 9M 2023, still ahead of the 10.24% growth in overall net revenue - continuing the pattern H1 2023 first flagged. The mix shift widened slightly more than at H1 (18.19% of net revenue this period, versus 17.84% a year earlier, a 0.35-percentage-point gap versus H1's 0.19-point gap).
Related-party purchases kept growing as a share of total purchases
Net purchases from PT Atri Distribusindo, PT Yamazaki Indonesia, PT Alfindo LF Makmur, and PT Benfood Ekamakmur Nusajaya totaled Rp803,902 million for the nine months, 1.14% of total net purchases - up from H1 2024's 1.09% and from 0.98% a year earlier, extending the reversal H1 tracked of a decline this site had followed across four prior periods.
Coverage Table
| Metric | 9M 2024 | 9M 2023 | YoY | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net Revenue | Rp88,217,081M | Rp80,024,668M | ✅ +10.2% | Consistent with H1's pace |
| Net Income (to owners) | Rp2,398,825M | Rp2,190,235M | ✅ +9.5% | Ahead of segment income growth (+6.0%), driven by non-operating items |
| Jabodetabek segment income (standalone Q3) | Rp164,281M | Rp243,956M | 🔴 -32.7% | Fourth consecutive standalone-quarter decline, and the second-worst on record |
| Interest-bearing bank debt | Rp92M | Rp57,104M (H1 2024) | ✅ -99.8% | Fully eliminated across every facility disclosed |
| Free cash flow | Rp3,752,934M | Rp2,474,331M | ✅ +51.7% | Driven by an 89.5% jump in standalone Q3 operating cash flow |
| Rights issue disclosure | Zero mentions | Zero mentions | 🔴 unchanged | Fifteenth consecutive silent filing, now ~908 days past deadline |
Target Valuation Range
Enterprise value ~Rp127.06 trillion (~$8.13B), implying 14.65x EV/EBITDA and a trailing P/E of ~36.33x - fairly valued to slightly expensive. Every multiple this site tracks expanded meaningfully this quarter as the share price rose to a two-year high while trailing earnings barely grew, and the accelerating Jabodetabek decline (see above) is a real reason to question whether that re-rating is justified.
Alfamart's shares closed at Rp3,160 on September 30, 2024 (the last trading session of the quarter) - up 14.9% from Rp2,750 at H1 2024, and a new high across the trailing two years to this quarter-end. No stock split has occurred since 2013, so no price adjustment is needed.
| Market cap → enterprise value | Q3 2024 |
|---|---|
| Share price (period-end) | Rp3,160 |
| Shares outstanding | 41,524,501,700 |
| Market capitalization | Rp131.22 trillion (~$8.40B) |
| Plus: interest-bearing debt | Rp92 million |
| Less: cash and equivalents | Rp4.16 trillion |
| Enterprise value | Rp127.06 trillion (~$8.13B) |
| Peer-multiple sanity check | H1 2024 | Q3 2024 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Trailing P/E | ~31.85x | ~36.33x | ⚠️ up |
| EV/EBITDA | ~13.04x | ~14.65x | ⚠️ up |
| P/B | ~7.65x | ~8.46x | ⚠️ up |
Trailing P/E (using an approximated TTM net income of Rp3,612,247 million: FY2023's Rp3,403,657 million, less 9M 2023's Rp2,190,235 million, plus 9M 2024's Rp2,398,825 million) rose almost entirely on the share-price move - trailing earnings grew just 0.75% over the same window. EV/EBITDA (against an approximated TTM EBITDA of Rp8,676,082 million: FY2023's Rp8,086,174 million, less 9M 2023's Rp5,591,959 million, plus 9M 2024's Rp6,181,867 million) rose the same way. P/B (book value of approximately Rp15,520,592 million equity attributable to owners ÷ 41.52 billion shares) rose as well.
No listed domestic peer still exists for a direct minimarket-format comparison - Indomaret remains privately held under the Salim Group. A full DCF still isn't included here, for the same reason as prior posts: the rights issue mandate's continued silence (see Beyond the Usual) leaves an unresolved capital-structure question a forward model would need to take a view on either way. The share price moved within a Rp2,580-Rp3,160 range across the trailing two years to this quarter-end (based on month-end closes) - a 22.5% peak-to-trough swing, narrower than H1 2024's 64.8% window, with the current quarter-end itself now marking both ends' new high.
PT Sumber Alfaria Trijaya Tbk's unaudited interim consolidated financial statements as of September 30, 2024 and for the nine months then ended; the Company's corresponding investor presentation as of September 30, 2024.