AMRT Why Did the Capital Region's Segment Income Fall for a Second Straight Quarter?

The Capital Region's Slump Wasn't a One-Quarter Story

This is PT Sumber Alfaria Trijaya Tbk's unaudited interim consolidated financial statements for the three months ended March 31, 2024, authorized for issue by the Board of Directors on April 29, 2024. The headline: net revenue rose 12.07% to Rp29,325,594 million, from Rp26,167,071 million, and net income attributable to owners rose 14.75% to Rp890,314 million, from Rp775,829 million (see Key Financial Metrics).

The FY2023 post flagged that Jabodetabek's standalone Q4 segment income fell 39.49% year-over-year - a sharp reversal for the one region that had been gaining margin all through 2023 - while Java (excl. Jabodetabek) and Outside Java both surged. This quarter shows that wasn't a one-off: Jabodetabek's segment income fell again, 4.06% year-over-year (Rp268,112 million from Rp279,465 million), even though the region's revenue grew 8.80% - margin compressed to 3.31%, from 3.75% a year earlier (see Segment Performance). The decline is far milder than Q4's 39.49% collapse, but it's the second consecutive quarter Indonesia's largest, most mature retail market has posted a standalone income decline, while Java (excl. Jabodetabek) and Outside Java both kept growing segment income double-digits (+10.00% and +14.88% respectively) despite each losing a sliver of margin too. Combined segment income across all three regions still grew 9.12% (Rp1,433,777 million to Rp1,564,559 million) - Jabodetabek is the only one of the three actually going backwards, not just growing more slowly than its peers.

The Prescription

Alfamart's growth engine is unambiguously Java (excl. Jabodetabek) and Outside Java right now - both regions have posted double-digit segment-income growth for two straight quarters while carrying margins north of 5.9% - and management should keep steering capex and new-store capacity toward that geography rather than defending share in a capital-region market that's now shown two consecutive quarters of standalone income decline. What it should stop doing is treating Jabodetabek's slide as beneath disclosure: a filing willing to itemize a Rp150 million guarantee-fee arrangement with a Japanese trading house and a bank-by-bank breakdown of Rp150 billion in short-term loans has the disclosure muscle to say one sentence about why its home market's profitability keeps eroding - the same silence this site has now flagged around the unaddressed rights issue mandate for thirteen consecutive quarters.

Key Financial Metrics

Q1 2024 vs. Q1 2023 (P&L and cash flow), March 2024 vs. December 2023 (balance sheet) - consolidated, unaudited

FX: IDR 15,853 = USD 1 (Bank Indonesia's period-end exchange rate as of March 31, 2024, per the filing's own foreign-currency policy note). This filing's own comparative column states Rp15,416 = USD 1 for December 31, 2023, matching FY2023 - no new rate conflict this quarter.

Metric	Q1 2024 (IDR)	Q1 2024 (USD)	Q1 2023 (IDR)	YoY
Net Revenue	Rp29,325,594M	~$1,850.0M	Rp26,167,071M	✅ +12.07%
Gross Profit	Rp6,389,005M	~$403.0M	Rp5,695,537M	✅ +12.17%
Income from Operations ("Operating Income")	Rp1,148,756M	~$72.5M	Rp1,015,454M	✅ +13.13%
Income Before Final Tax and Corporate Income Tax	Rp1,152,455M	~$72.7M	Rp983,946M	✅ +17.13%
Income for the Period (total)	Rp921,549M	~$58.1M	Rp791,138M	✅ +16.48%
Net Income (attributable to owners)	Rp890,314M	~$56.2M	Rp775,829M	✅ +14.75%
EPS	Rp21.44	~$0.0014	Rp18.68	✅ +14.78%
EBITDA» (Operating Income + D&A)	Rp2,141,763M	~$135.1M	Rp1,889,584M	✅ +13.35%

Balance sheet metric	Mar 2024 (IDR)	Mar 2024 (USD)	Dec 2023 (IDR)	Change
Total Assets	Rp40,378,111M	~$2,547.1M	Rp34,246,183M	✅ +17.91%
Total Liabilities	Rp23,844,509M	~$1,504.4M	Rp18,540,983M	⚠️ +28.61%
Total Equity (attributable to owners)	Rp15,270,596M	~$963.3M	Rp14,473,429M	✅ +5.51%
Total Cash (incl. time deposits)	Rp3,603,110M	~$227.3M	Rp4,074,530M	⚠️ -11.57%

"Adjusted EBITDA^»" remains a metric Alfamart doesn't report; the EBITDA line above is Income from Operations plus depreciation and amortization (Rp993,007M for Q1 2024, per the segment note, versus Rp874,130M for Q1 2023).

Free cash flow (net cash from operating activities minus capex - "acquisition of fixed assets" only, same basis as prior posts): swung to +Rp263,161M, from -Rp485,382M a year earlier ✅ - a full reversal of Q1 2023's worst single-quarter FCF swing on record. Net cash from operating activities swung to +Rp795,170M (from -Rp46,710M), as cash receipts from customers rose 9.80% (Rp28,874,598M from Rp26,297,256M) and the prior year's pre-Ramadan inventory build didn't repeat this quarter to the same degree - cash payments to suppliers rose just 2.67% (Rp22,855,699M from Rp22,261,447M), far behind revenue growth. Capex on fixed assets grew 21.30% (Rp532,009M from Rp438,672M).

Debt-to-Equity Ratio (DER)^» (interest-bearing debt - short and long-term bank loans and consumer financing payables, excluding the right-of-use lease liability, on the same basis as prior posts; no bonds remain outstanding): roughly 0.0098x at March 2024, up from December 2023's record-low 0.0043x - still close to zero on an absolute basis, but interest-bearing debt more than doubled off that near-zero base to approximately Rp150,116 million (short-term bank loans of Rp150,000M plus Rp116M of consumer financing payables), up 138.6% from Rp62,919 million at December 2023. Net gearing eased slightly to roughly -0.226x (net cash) at March 2024, from -0.277x at December 2023 ⚠️ - still a deep net-cash position, but less deep than year-end, as cash fell 11.57% while debt grew.

Key Operational Metrics

• Store network, market share, and Alfagift metrics: not available. No investor presentation was located for this quarter (unlike most quarters, this filing wasn't accompanied by a separate corporate deck), and none of these figures are disclosed inside the financial statements themselves.
• Permanent employees: 90,065 as of March 2024, up 3.35% from 87,142 at December 2023 (both figures disclosed as unaudited in this filing's related-party/key-management note) - the filing's own comparative column only discloses the December 2023 figure, not a March 2023 one, so a year-over-year comparison isn't available this quarter.

Segment Performance

Alfamart reports the same three geographic segments as every prior post - Jabodetabek (greater Jakarta), Java excluding Jabodetabek, and Outside Java. Figures below use each segment's external revenue and segment income for the three months ended March 31.

Segment	External Revenue (Q1 2024)	External Revenue (Q1 2023)	YoY	Segment Income (Q1 2024)	Segment Income (Q1 2023)	YoY	Margin (2024 vs 2023)
Jabodetabek	Rp8,099,261M	Rp7,443,967M	✅ +8.80%	Rp268,112M	Rp279,465M	🔴 -4.06%	⚠️ 3.31% vs 3.75%
Java (excl. Jabodetabek)	Rp11,241,320M	Rp10,131,813M	✅ +10.95%	Rp668,034M	Rp607,302M	✅ +10.00%	⚠️ 5.94% vs 6.00%
Outside Java	Rp9,985,013M	Rp8,591,291M	✅ +16.22%	Rp628,413M	Rp547,010M	✅ +14.88%	⚠️ 6.29% vs 6.37%

All three segments actually lost a sliver of margin this quarter - the difference is that Java (excl. Jabodetabek) and Outside Java grew revenue fast enough (+10.95% and +16.22%) to still post double-digit segment-income growth despite it, while Jabodetabek's slower revenue growth (+8.80%) wasn't enough to offset its steeper margin loss (3.75% to 3.31%, a much bigger compression than the other two regions' near-flat readings). That's the real distinction worth drawing from Q4 2023's standalone reversal: Jabodetabek isn't merely the slowest-growing region anymore, it's the only one where segment income is actually shrinking, for the second standalone quarter in a row.

Segments Compared

Combined segment income grew 9.12% year-over-year (Rp1,433,777M to Rp1,564,559M) - slower than Q4 2023's standalone 16.05%, but for a different reason this time: unallocated corporate overhead barely moved (-0.60%, Rp418,323M to Rp415,803M), unlike Q4 2023's overhead swing that flattered the prior-year comparison. Net income to owners grew faster than combined segment income (14.75% vs 9.12%), and the gap this quarter comes almost entirely from below the operating-income line: unallocated non-operating items swung to a net Rp3,699M gain from a net Rp31,508M expense a year earlier - finance cost fell 38.20% (Rp48,980M to Rp30,261M) even as short-term bank debt grew, finance income rose 60.66% (Rp18,659M to Rp29,980M), and the Group's share of associates' results flipped from a Rp1,187M loss to a Rp3,980M gain. Unlike Q3 2023's overhead-driven profit growth, this quarter's above-segment growth is a genuinely different lever - non-operating items, not cost discipline.

Beyond the Usual

The rights issue mandate stays unaddressed for a thirteenth consecutive filing

Shareholders approved the up-to-5-billion-share Capital Increase with Pre-emptive Rights (HMETD) at the May 6, 2021 Extraordinary General Meeting - a mandate this site has now tracked across thirteen consecutive filings, most recently FY2023 (silent, like every filing since the FY2021 annual report stopped even acknowledging it). This filing was authorized for issue on April 29, 2024 - roughly 723 days (approximately 23.8 months) past the mandate's own May 6, 2022 regulatory deadline under OJK Regulation No. 32/POJK.04/2015 - and, like every filing since the FY2021 annual report, contains no reference anywhere to the rights issue having lapsed, been extended, been formally cancelled, or been replaced by a fresh shareholder approval. The issued share count remains unchanged at 41,524,501,700 - the same figure disclosed at every quarter since the approval was granted.

The Bank Aladin stake's paper loss widened back to its 9M 2023 level, then deepened further by the authorization date

The Rp500,000 million stake in PT Bank Aladin Syariah Tbk, first flagged at H1 2022 and tracked through FY2023's 27.06% period-end reading, shows an accumulated unrealized fair-value loss of Rp183,823 million at March 31, 2024 - a 36.76% paper loss, back at roughly the same depth as Q3 2023's reading and a reversal of December 2023's brief improvement. The note goes on to disclose that "as of the date near completion" of these financial statements (close to the April 29, 2024 authorization date), Bank Aladin's share price implied a carrying value of just Rp283,824 million - a 43.24% loss from cost, worse than both the period-end figure and every prior near-filing-date reading this site has recorded. The stake's mark keeps recovering somewhat at period-end and then deteriorating further by the time the filing is actually authorized, a pattern now visible across four consecutive filings.

Franchise income grew faster than overall net revenue this quarter

Franchise cooperation agreements - five-year terms, paid up front plus a progressive contribution fee on each franchisee's monthly net revenue - generated Rp124,232 million of franchise income for Q1 2024, up 19.18% from Rp104,243 million in Q1 2023, well ahead of the 12.07% growth in overall net revenue. Contract liabilities associated with franchise fees paid in advance stood at Rp87,481 million at quarter-end, essentially flat from Rp87,924 million at December 2023 (-0.50%).

The related-party building lease to PIM eased from December's level but remains roughly five times its pre-2023 size

The lease liability to PT Perkasa Internusa Mandiri ("PIM"), an entity under common control that the Company rents building space, equipment, and services from, stood at Rp86,721 million (0.21% of total consolidated liabilities) at March 31, 2024 - down 12.35% from December 2023's Rp98,943 million, but still roughly 5.00 times December 2022's Rp17,329 million. The filing again doesn't explain the underlying driver.

Short-term bank debt more than doubled off a near-zero base, spread across a dozen different lenders

The bank-loan footnote itemizes balances across roughly a dozen counterparties - PT Bank BRI Syariah (Rp6,485M), PT Bank Tabungan Negara (Persero) Tbk (Rp4,899M), PT Bank Sinarmas Tbk (Rp4,585M), PT Bank Aladin Syariah Tbk (Rp3,537M, a separate credit-facility relationship from the equity stake flagged above), PT Bank CIMB Niaga Tbk (Rp3,008M), and several smaller lines down to MUFG Bank, Ltd., Jakarta (Rp277M) and PT Bank DBS Indonesia (Rp169M). Total short-term bank loans grew to Rp150,000 million from Rp62,792 million at December 2023 - the DER move flagged in Key Financial Metrics traces to genuine new borrowing spread thinly across many relationship banks, not one large draw.

Coverage Table

Metric	Q1 2024	Q1 2023	YoY	Why it matters
Net Revenue	Rp29,325,594M	Rp26,167,071M	✅ +12.1%	Fastest revenue growth since Q1 2022
Net Income (to owners)	Rp890,314M	Rp775,829M	✅ +14.8%	Ahead of segment-income growth (+9.1%), driven by non-operating items, not overhead cuts
Jabodetabek segment income	Rp268,112M	Rp279,465M	🔴 -4.1%	Second consecutive standalone-quarter decline for the capital region
Free cash flow	Rp263,161M	-Rp485,382M	✅ swing	Full reversal of last year's worst single-quarter FCF swing on record
Interest-bearing bank debt	Rp150,116M	Rp62,919M (Dec 2023)	⚠️ +138.6%	More than doubled off December 2023's near-zero base; DER still only ~0.0098x
Rights issue disclosure	Zero mentions	Zero mentions	🔴 unchanged	Thirteenth consecutive silent filing, now ~723 days past deadline

Target Valuation Range

Enterprise value ~Rp117.38 trillion (~$7.40B), implying 14.08x EV/EBITDA and a trailing P/E of ~34.34x - fairly valued, tilting slightly cheaper. The stock is essentially flat against year-end while every multiple this site tracks compressed modestly on 12-17% earnings/EBITDA growth; the Jabodetabek weakness (see above) is a real question mark for the region that anchors the company's home market, but it hasn't yet shown up in the valuation.

Alfamart's shares closed at Rp2,910 on March 28, 2024 (the last trading session of the quarter) - down 0.68% from Rp2,930 at FY2023, and up 1.04% from Rp2,880 a year earlier at Q1 2023. No stock split has occurred since 2013, so no price adjustment is needed.

Market cap → enterprise value	Q1 2024
Share price (period-end)	Rp2,910
Shares outstanding	41,524,501,700
Market capitalization	Rp120.84 trillion (~$7.62B)
Plus: interest-bearing debt	Rp150,116 million
Less: cash and equivalents	Rp3.60 trillion
Enterprise value	Rp117.38 trillion (~$7.40B)

Peer-multiple sanity check	FY2023	Q1 2024	Change
Trailing P/E	~35.75x	~34.34x	✅ down slightly
EV/EBITDA	~14.55x	~14.08x	✅ down slightly
P/B	~8.41x	~7.91x	✅ down

Trailing P/E (using an approximated TTM net income of Rp3,518,142 million: FY2023's Rp3,403,657 million, less Q1 2023's Rp775,829 million, plus Q1 2024's Rp890,314 million) fell slightly - a real full-year figure at FY2023 versus an approximation here - as trailing earnings grew faster than the roughly flat share price. EV/EBITDA (against an approximated TTM EBITDA of Rp8,338,353 million: FY2023's Rp8,086,174 million, less Q1 2023's Rp1,889,584 million, plus Q1 2024's Rp2,141,763 million) fell slightly the same way. P/B (book value of approximately Rp15,270,596 million equity attributable to owners ÷ 41.52 billion shares) fell as equity attributable to owners grew 5.51% for the quarter, outpacing the roughly flat share price.

No listed domestic peer still exists for a direct minimarket-format comparison - Indomaret remains privately held under the Salim Group. A full DCF still isn't included here, for the same reason as prior posts: the rights issue mandate's continued silence (see Beyond the Usual) leaves an unresolved capital-structure question a forward model would need to take a view on either way. The share price moved within a Rp1,710-Rp3,090 range across the trailing two years to this quarter-end (based on month-end closes) - an 80.70% peak-to-trough swing, both the low (April 2022) and the high (November 2022) sitting inside this quarter's trailing 24 months, a narrower window than FY2023's 183.49% swing since February 2022's lower low has now rolled out of the two-year lookback.

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