A Decline That Isn't a Base Effect This Time
This is PT Sumber Alfaria Trijaya Tbk's unaudited interim consolidated financial statements for the nine months ended September 30, 2025, authorized for issue by the Board of Directors on October 29, 2025. Net revenue rose 7.09% to Rp94,475,921 million, from Rp88,217,081 million, but net income attributable to owners fell 3.50% to Rp2,314,904 million, from Rp2,398,825 million (see Key Financial Metrics) - the first nine-month cumulative profit decline this site has recorded for the company outside Q3 2020's pandemic-disrupted quarter. That comparison matters: the 2020 decline came from an external shock the whole retail sector absorbed. This one doesn't have that excuse.
Isolating the standalone third quarter (9M total minus the already-reported H1 2025) shows the decline is broad-based, not a single bad line: operating income fell 24.82% year-over-year, net income to owners fell 28.69%, and free cash flow collapsed 91.69%. Unlike H1 2025, where Jabodetabek alone dragged the result while Outside Java kept accelerating on both lines, this quarter segment income fell standalone in all three geographic regions - Jabodetabek (-6.66%), Java excluding Jabodetabek (-20.38%), and even Outside Java (-1.37%), the segment that had otherwise been the most reliable growth engine of the three, growing standalone income in every quarter since Q1 2025 (see Segment Performance). Revenue still grew in two of the three regions; margin compression, not a sales collapse, is doing the damage.
The Prescription
Since Q1 2025, Outside Java has been the segment Alfamart could point to as proof the growth story was intact even while Jabodetabek struggled. This quarter that argument weakens: Outside Java still grew standalone revenue 13.17%, but its segment income slipped 1.37% and its margin compressed from 4.23% to 3.69% - the same direction as the other two regions, just smaller in magnitude. Management should stop treating margin compression as a Jabodetabek-specific problem to be managed around and start treating it as a company-wide cost or pricing issue - whatever is squeezing margin in the capital region is now visible, at a smaller scale, in the region that was supposed to be immune. What the company should stop doing is leaving "Beban usaha yang tidak dapat dialokasikan" (unallocated operating expenses) unexplained while it keeps outgrowing the business it sits on top of: standalone Q3 unallocated overhead grew 11.71% against combined segment income that fell 11.61% - the same overhead-outpacing-a-shrinking-base pattern flagged in H1 2025, now in its second consecutive standalone quarter. A filing with 126 pages of notes can afford one paragraph breaking down what's actually in that line.
Key Financial Metrics
9M 2025 vs. 9M 2024 (P&L and cash flow), September 2025 vs. December 2024 (balance sheet) - consolidated, unaudited
FX: IDR 16,325 = USD 1 (the exchange rate at the reporting date, per the filing's own monetary-assets-in-foreign-currency note).
| Metric | 9M 2025 (IDR) | 9M 2025 (USD) | 9M 2024 (IDR) | YoY |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net Revenue | Rp94,475,921M | ~$5,787.2M | Rp88,217,081M | ✅ +7.09% |
| Gross Profit | Rp20,303,813M | ~$1,243.7M | Rp18,868,830M | ✅ +7.61% ✅ margin 21.49% vs 21.39% |
| Income from Operations ("Operating Income") | Rp2,958,391M | ~$181.2M | Rp3,105,458M | 🔴 -4.74% 🔴 margin 3.13% vs 3.52% |
| Income Before Final Tax and Corporate Income Tax | Rp2,942,937M | ~$180.3M | Rp3,070,550M | 🔴 -4.16% |
| Income for the Year (total, incl. non-controlling interests) | Rp2,420,885M | ~$148.3M | Rp2,476,301M | ⚠️ -2.24% |
| Net Income (attributable to owners) | Rp2,314,904M | ~$141.8M | Rp2,398,825M | 🔴 -3.50% 🔴 margin 2.45% vs 2.72% |
| EPS | Rp55.75 | ~$0.0034 | Rp57.77 | 🔴 -3.50% |
| EBITDA» (Operating Income + D&A) | Rp6,289,759M | ~$385.3M | Rp6,181,867M | ⚠️ +1.75% ⚠️ margin 6.66% vs 7.01% |
| Balance sheet metric | Sep 2025 (IDR) | Sep 2025 (USD) | Dec 2024 (IDR) | Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total Assets | Rp40,020,781M | ~$2,451.5M | Rp38,798,382M | ✅ +3.15% |
| Total Liabilities | Rp21,401,097M | ~$1,310.9M | Rp21,102,439M | ⚠️ +1.42% |
| Total Equity (attributable to owners) | Rp17,268,592M | ~$1,057.8M | Rp16,377,674M | ✅ +5.44% |
| Total Cash (incl. time deposits) | Rp3,778,314M | ~$231.4M | Rp4,895,208M | 🔴 -22.82% |
This is the first quarter since FY2024 where operating income, income before tax, and net income to owners all moved backward year-over-year on a multi-quarter cumulative basis - revenue growth alone isn't carrying the story anymore. Every profit margin compressed except gross profit, which held essentially flat. The standalone-quarter detail behind this cumulative read is in Segment Performance and Segments Compared below.
"Adjusted EBITDA»" remains a metric Alfamart doesn't report; the EBITDA line above is Income from Operations plus depreciation and amortization (Rp3,331,368M for 9M 2025, versus Rp3,076,409M for 9M 2024, per the segment note).
Free cash flow (net cash from operating activities minus capex - "acquisition of fixed assets" only, same basis as prior posts): fell 19.01% to +Rp3,039,392M, from +Rp3,752,934M a year earlier. Net cash from operating activities fell 14.29% to Rp4,877,524M (from Rp5,690,889M), while capex on fixed assets fell a smaller 5.15% to Rp1,838,132M (from Rp1,937,955M). The standalone third quarter is where this shows up: H1 2025's free cash flow of +Rp2,859,281M was itself driven mostly by an unexplained eightfold jump in "cash receipts from other operating activities" (see Beyond the Usual below) - and that line barely grew for the full nine months (Rp1,548,048M for 9M 2025 versus Rp1,291,467M for 9M 2024, +19.87%), meaning the standalone third quarter's own contribution to that line was Rp40,788M, down from Rp1,113,358M a year earlier. The one-time H1 surge didn't repeat, and operating cash flow fell hard once it was gone.
Debt-to-Equity Ratio (DER)» (interest-bearing debt - short and long-term bank loans and consumer financing payables, excluding the right-of-use lease liability): exactly zero at September 30, 2025, unchanged from every quarter since 9M 2024. The cash flow statement shows Rp95,150,000 million drawn against short-term bank facilities during the nine months and Rp95,150,000 million repaid - the same heavy revolving-and-net-to-zero pattern flagged since Q1 2025.
Key Operational Metrics
- Net revenue from franchises: Rp17,024,870 million, 18.02% of net revenue, versus Rp16,050,019 million (18.19% of net revenue) a year earlier - franchise revenue grew 6.07% YoY, still slower than overall net revenue's 7.09%, so its share of the business fell for a third consecutive period this site has tracked (following Q1 2025's 19.46% and H1 2025's 17.96%).
- Store network: 20,925 total minimarkets at September 30, 2025 (15,220 directly owned, 5,705 under franchise agreements), up 4.00% from 20,120 at December 31, 2024.
- Headcount: 97,944 permanent employees at September 30, 2025, up 2.40% from 95,648 at December 31, 2024 - but only 209 more than H1 2025's 97,735, a sharp slowdown in standalone-quarter hiring that's consistent with the standalone quarter's broader deceleration.
- Customer and supplier concentration: the filing states plainly that no single customer or supplier accounted for more than 10% of net revenue or net purchases in either 9M 2025 or 9M 2024 - a routine disclosure, included here because the same notes disclose the related-party revenue and purchase figures in Beyond the Usual.
Segment Performance
Alfamart reports the same three geographic segments as every prior post - Jabodetabek (greater Jakarta), Java excluding Jabodetabek, and Outside Java. The filing reports 9M 2025 directly against 9M 2024; the standalone third-quarter figures below are derived by subtracting each segment's already-reported H1 2025 and H1 2024 figures from this filing's nine-month totals.
Nine months ended September 30 (as reported):
| Segment | External Revenue (9M 2025) | External Revenue (9M 2024) | YoY | Segment Income (9M 2025) | Segment Income (9M 2024) | YoY | Margin (2025 vs 2024) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jabodetabek | Rp24,703,499M | Rp24,130,518M | ✅ +2.37% | Rp601,928M | Rp660,278M | 🔴 -8.84% | ⚠️ 2.44% vs 2.74% |
| Java (excl. Jabodetabek) | Rp33,663,564M | Rp32,746,802M | ✅ +2.80% | Rp1,879,049M | Rp1,970,508M | 🔴 -4.64% | ⚠️ 5.58% vs 6.02% |
| Outside Java | Rp36,108,858M | Rp31,339,761M | ✅ +15.22% | Rp1,954,784M | Rp1,746,368M | ✅ +11.93% | ⚠️ 5.41% vs 5.57% |
Standalone Q3 (Q3 2025 vs Q3 2024, derived):
| Segment | External Revenue (Q3 2025) | External Revenue (Q3 2024) | YoY | Segment Income (Q3 2025) | Segment Income (Q3 2024) | YoY | Margin (2025 vs 2024) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jabodetabek | Rp7,969,425M | Rp7,999,516M | ⚠️ -0.38% | Rp153,346M | Rp164,281M | 🔴 -6.66% | ⚠️ 1.92% vs 2.05% |
| Java (excl. Jabodetabek) | Rp10,645,144M | Rp10,351,873M | ✅ +2.83% | Rp492,803M | Rp618,955M | 🔴 -20.38% | 🔴 4.63% vs 5.98% |
| Outside Java | Rp12,048,620M | Rp10,646,559M | ✅ +13.17% | Rp444,031M | Rp450,183M | ⚠️ -1.37% | ⚠️ 3.69% vs 4.23% |
The nine-month view still shows all three regions growing segment income except Jabodetabek (and Outside Java growing handsomely, +11.93%), because H1 2025's own strength carries the cumulative average. The standalone quarter is where the real story is: all three regions posted a standalone segment-income decline this quarter, something this site hasn't recorded happening simultaneously across every region before. Java excluding Jabodetabek was hit hardest (-20.38%, margin down more than a point to 4.63% from 5.98%), a sharper deterioration than H1 2025's milder standalone Q2 decline for the same region. Jabodetabek's standalone decline (-6.66%) is actually smaller than Q2's -34.42%, so the capital region's slide didn't get materially worse - it's Outside Java's reversal that's new: the segment that had grown standalone income every quarter since Q1 2025 posted a small decline (-1.37%) even as its revenue kept accelerating (+13.17%), meaning its margin gave back more than a point (4.23% to 3.69%).
Segments Compared
On the nine-month cumulative basis, combined segment income grew a modest 1.34% (Rp4,377,154M to Rp4,435,761M) while unallocated overhead grew 16.17% (Rp1,271,696M to Rp1,477,370M) - overhead still comfortably outpacing the business, consistent with every quarter this site has tracked since Q3 2022. The standalone third quarter is worse: combined segment income fell 11.61% (Rp1,233,419M to Rp1,090,180M) while unallocated overhead still grew 11.71% (Rp445,774M to Rp497,995M) - a second consecutive standalone quarter (after H1 2025's standalone Q2) where overhead grew against a shrinking segment-level base rather than merely a slower-growing one. Operating income for the standalone quarter fell 24.82% (Rp787,645M to Rp592,185M), and net income to owners fell 28.69% (Rp604,518M to Rp431,095M) - unlike H1 2025, where non-operating items happened to offset most of the operating decline, this quarter's net income decline tracks the operating decline closely, meaning there was no offsetting cushion this time.
Beyond the Usual
The rights issue mandate stays unaddressed for a nineteenth consecutive filing
Shareholders approved the up-to-5-billion-share Capital Increase with Pre-emptive Rights (HMETD) at the May 6, 2021 Extraordinary General Meeting - a mandate this site has now tracked across nineteen consecutive filings, most recently H1 2025. This filing was authorized for issue on October 29, 2025 - roughly 1,272 days (about 41.8 months) past the mandate's own May 6, 2022 regulatory deadline under OJK Regulation No. 32/POJK.04/2015 - and contains no reference anywhere to the rights issue having lapsed, been extended, been formally cancelled, or been replaced by a fresh shareholder approval. The issued share count remains unchanged at 41,524,501,700, the same figure disclosed at every quarter since the approval was granted.
The cash-flow line that eightfolded last quarter barely grew at all this time
"Cash receipts from other operating activities" - the unexplained line flagged in H1 2025 after it jumped 746% for the half - grew just 19.87% for the full nine months (Rp1,548,048 million versus Rp1,291,467 million a year earlier). Because H1 alone already accounted for Rp1,507,260 million of this year's total, the standalone third quarter contributed only Rp40,788 million to this line, down sharply from Rp1,113,358 million in the same quarter last year. Nothing in the notes explains what the line contains or why it moved so differently across the two periods - the underlying driver of H1's surge appears to have been temporary, but a reader still has no way to confirm that from anything disclosed.
The Bank Aladin stake's paper loss widened back to its worst reading, while the "near-completion" share price hasn't moved in three straight filings
The Rp500,000 million stake in PT Bank Aladin Syariah Tbk, first flagged at H1 2022, shows an accumulated unrealized fair-value loss of Rp263,235 million at September 30, 2025 - a 52.65% paper loss, reversing H1 2025's narrower 51.18% reading and landing back at exactly Q1 2025's level. Separately, the filing's near-completion-date valuation uses a market price of Rp825 per share - the same figure used in the two prior filings' near-date readings - implying an unchanged carrying value of Rp242,647 million and a 51.47% loss from cost. A market-quoted share price staying fixed to the rupiah across three consecutive quarterly disclosures, each authorized weeks apart, is not itself proof of anything wrong, but it is a detail worth watching in the next filing.
Related-party purchases were Rp1,310,211 million for 9M 2025, 1.74% of total net purchases - up from Rp942,303 million (1.34%) a year earlier, extending the multi-quarter growth in related-party purchase share flagged since Q1 2025. The same six counterparties disclosed in prior quarters - PT Atri Distribusindo, PT Yamazaki Indonesia, PT Sinergi Global Indonesia, PT Alfindo LF Makmur, PT Benfood Ekamakmur Nusajaya, and PT Karakter Paloma Sejati - remain the named entities, with no new counterparty added this filing.
The related-party lease liability to PT Perkasa Internusa Mandiri ("PIM"), an entity under common control, fell further to Rp67,083 million at September 30, 2025, from Rp77,528 million at December 31, 2024 - a 13.47% decline that extends H1 2025's reversal rather than repeating it, the liability having now moved in the same direction for two consecutive periods for the first time this site has recorded. A separate related-party rent deposit to the same counterparty rose to Rp10,212 million from Rp8,231 million over the same period, still with no explanation offered for either move.
Coverage Table
| Metric | 9M 2025 | 9M 2024 | YoY | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net Revenue | Rp94,475,921M | Rp88,217,081M | ✅ +7.1% | Revenue growth alone can't offset margin compression this quarter |
| Net Income (to owners) | Rp2,314,904M | Rp2,398,825M | 🔴 -3.5% | First 9-month cumulative decline outside the 2020 pandemic quarter |
| Segment income, all 3 regions (standalone Q3) | Rp1,090,180M | Rp1,233,419M | 🔴 -11.6% | Every region declined standalone at once, a first for this site's coverage |
| Free cash flow | +Rp3,039,392M | +Rp3,752,934M | 🔴 -19.0% | H1's unexplained cash-flow surge (see Beyond the Usual) didn't repeat |
| Share price (quarter-end) | Rp1,930 | - | 🔴 -19.2% vs Jun 2025 | New 2-year low, down 41.9% peak-to-trough from Oct 2024's high |
| Rights issue disclosure | Zero mentions | Zero mentions | 🔴 unchanged | Nineteenth consecutive silent filing, now ~1,272 days past deadline |
Target Valuation Range
Enterprise value ~Rp76.36 trillion (~$4.68B), implying 9.12x EV/EBITDA and a trailing P/E of ~26.15x - too cheap to ignore only if the standalone-quarter deceleration proves temporary. On the numbers as they stand, the multiple compression looks like the market correctly pricing in a weaker business, not a bargain.
Alfamart's shares closed at Rp1,930 on September 30, 2025 - down 19.25% from H1 2025's Rp2,390 close and a new low for the trailing two years, 41.87% below the Rp3,320 high reached in October 2024. No stock split has occurred since July 2013, so no price adjustment is needed.
Unlike last quarter, where the share price recovery outran the fundamentals, this quarter the price and the business moved in the same direction - both down (see Segments Compared):
| Market cap → enterprise value | Q3 2025 |
|---|---|
| Share price (period-end) | Rp1,930 |
| Shares outstanding | 41,524,501,700 |
| Market capitalization | Rp80.14 trillion (~$4.91B) |
| Plus: interest-bearing debt | Rp0 |
| Less: cash and equivalents | Rp3.78 trillion |
| Enterprise value | Rp76.36 trillion (~$4.68B) |
| Peer-multiple sanity check | H1 2025 | Q3 2025 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Trailing P/E | ~30.66x | ~26.15x | ✅ down |
| EV/EBITDA | ~11.16x | ~9.12x | ✅ down |
| P/B | ~5.90x | ~4.64x | ✅ down |
Market cap fell from Rp99.24 trillion (~$6.11B) at H1 2025. Trailing P/E (using trailing-twelve-month net income to owners of Rp3,064,186 million: FY2024's Rp3,148,107 million, less 9M 2024's Rp2,398,825 million, plus this period's Rp2,314,904 million) compressed as the share price fell faster than trailing earnings did - the multiple compressed by more than the earnings decline alone would explain. EV/EBITDA (against trailing-twelve-month EBITDA of Rp8,374,402 million) and P/B (book value of approximately Rp17,268,592 million equity attributable to owners ÷ 41.52 billion shares) both fell the same way.
No listed domestic peer still exists for a direct minimarket-format comparison - Indomaret remains privately held under the Salim Group. A full DCF still isn't included here, for the same reason as prior posts: the rights issue mandate's continued silence (see Beyond the Usual) leaves an unresolved capital-structure question a forward model would need to take a view on either way. The share price moved within a Rp1,930-Rp3,320 range across the trailing two years to this quarter-end (based on month-end closes) - a 41.87% peak-to-trough swing, wider than H1 2025's 38.25% because this quarter's own close set a new low.
Every multiple this site tracks got cheaper this quarter, and for once that lines up with what the underlying numbers show - a genuine, broad-based standalone-quarter deceleration rather than a market overreaction to a strong quarter, which was the concern flagged at H1 2025's richer multiples. Whether the stock is now undervalued depends entirely on whether the standalone quarter's all-three-region margin compression is a one-off or the start of a trend - the next filing is the one that will actually answer that.
PT Sumber Alfaria Trijaya Tbk's unaudited interim consolidated financial statements as of September 30, 2025 and for the nine months then ended, and the accompanying investor presentation for the same period.