AMRT Why Did Every Region That Collapsed in Q3 Suddenly Surge in Q4?

The Quarter That Undid Q3's Story

This is PT Sumber Alfaria Trijaya Tbk's audited consolidated financial statements for the year ended December 31, 2025, authorized for issue by the Board of Directors on March 26, 2026. Net revenue rose 7.20% to Rp126,737,251 million, from Rp118,227,031 million, and net income attributable to owners rose 8.35% to Rp3,410,889 million, from Rp3,148,107 million (see Key Financial Metrics) - a clean reversal of the pattern that defined 9M 2025, where cumulative profit had fallen 3.50% year-over-year for the first time this site has recorded outside the 2020 pandemic quarter.

Isolating the standalone fourth quarter (FY total less the already-reported 9M 2025) shows the entire swing happened in these three months: standalone revenue rose 7.50% year-over-year to Rp32,261,330 million, standalone operating income rose 64.85% to Rp1,604,004 million, and standalone net income to owners rose 46.27% to Rp1,095,985 million - against a Q4 2024 base of Rp30,009,950 million, Rp973,069 million, and Rp749,282 million respectively. More strikingly, combined segment income across all three geographic regions rose 51.77% standalone, reversing 9M 2025's finding that every region had declined standalone at once for the first time in this site's coverage (see Segment Performance). Whatever compressed margins in the standalone third quarter did not carry into the fourth - the full year still shows real, not just cosmetic, improvement.

The Prescription

The standalone Q4 reversal is genuine, but it doesn't erase the pattern flagged across H1 2025 and 9M 2025: unallocated corporate overhead still isn't explained anywhere in the notes, and on a full-year basis it grew 18.62% against combined segment income growth of 13.89% - overhead again outpacing the business it sits on top of, a pattern this site has now tracked since Q3 2022. Management should stop letting "Beban usaha yang tidak dapat dialokasikan" function as a black box that grows faster than the segments feeding it, regardless of which direction any single quarter moves; a business with 126+ pages of notes can afford one paragraph on what's actually inside that line. What the company should start doing is explaining the logic behind two decisions it made almost simultaneously this quarter and disclosed with equally little context: taking on its first-ever bank borrowing while also spending nearly as much cash on its first-ever treasury share buyback (see Beyond the Usual). Neither move is wrong on its own, but doing both at once without a stated rationale leaves a reader guessing whether this is opportunistic capital management or the start of a genuinely new balance-sheet posture.

Key Financial Metrics

FY2025 vs. FY2024 (P&L and cash flow), December 2025 vs. December 2024 (balance sheet) - consolidated, audited

FX: IDR 16,782 = USD 1 (the exchange rate at the reporting date, per the filing's own monetary-assets-in-foreign-currency note).

Metric	FY2025 (IDR)	FY2025 (USD)	FY2024 (IDR)	YoY
Net Revenue	Rp126,737,251M	~$7,552.0M	Rp118,227,031M	✅ +7.20%
Gross Profit	Rp27,756,247M	~$1,653.9M	Rp25,365,481M	✅ +9.43% ✅ margin 21.90% vs 21.45%
Income from Operations ("Operating Income")	Rp4,562,395M	~$271.9M	Rp4,078,527M	✅ +11.86% ✅ margin 3.60% vs 3.45%
Income Before Final Tax and Corporate Income Tax	Rp4,438,995M	~$264.5M	Rp4,066,063M	✅ +9.17%
Income for the Year (total, incl. non-controlling interests)	Rp3,558,789M	~$212.1M	Rp3,220,083M	✅ +10.52%
Net Income (attributable to owners)	Rp3,410,889M	~$203.2M	Rp3,148,107M	✅ +8.35% ✅ margin 2.69% vs 2.66%
EPS	Rp82.16	~$0.0049	Rp75.81	✅ +8.38%
EBITDA» (Operating Income + D&A)	Rp9,063,659M	~$540.1M	Rp8,266,510M	✅ +9.64% ✅ margin 7.15% vs 6.99%
Free Cash Flow»	+Rp5,119,559M	~$305.1M	+Rp5,519,789M	🔴 -7.25%

"Adjusted EBITDA^»" remains a metric Alfamart doesn't report; the EBITDA line above is Income from Operations plus depreciation and amortization (Rp4,501,264 million for FY2025, versus Rp4,187,983 million for FY2024, per the segment note). Free cash flow (net cash from operating activities minus capex - "acquisition of fixed assets" only, same basis as prior posts) fell 7.25% to +Rp5,119,559 million even as operating income and net income both grew, because net cash from operating activities fell 4.82% to Rp7,674,891 million (from Rp8,063,130 million) while capex on fixed assets grew 0.47% to Rp2,555,332 million - a year where operating cash flow moved opposite to reported profit growth, a divergence worth watching alongside the new bank borrowing discussed below.

Balance sheet metric	Dec 2025 (IDR)	Dec 2025 (USD)	Dec 2024 (IDR)	Change
Total Assets	Rp42,579,101M	~$2,537.2M	Rp38,798,382M	✅ +9.74%
Total Liabilities	Rp23,196,204M	~$1,382.2M	Rp21,102,439M	⚠️ +9.92%
Total Equity (attributable to owners)	Rp18,021,330M	~$1,073.8M	Rp16,377,674M	✅ +10.04%
Total Cash (incl. time deposits)	Rp4,679,823M	~$278.9M	Rp4,895,208M	🔴 -4.40%

Debt-to-Equity Ratio (DER)^» (interest-bearing debt - short and long-term bank loans, excluding the right-of-use lease liability): ~0.0393x at December 31, 2025, up from exactly zero at every quarter since Q3 2024 - the first non-zero reading this site has recorded in over a year, driven entirely by the new Bank Mandiri facility (see Beyond the Usual).

Key Operational Metrics

• Store network (parent company, minimarkets only): 21,120 total (15,322 directly owned, 5,798 under franchise agreements) at December 31, 2025, up 5.00% from 20,120 at December 31, 2024.
• Store network (Group-wide, all retail formats including subsidiaries): 24,434 retail stores at end of 2025, up 5.0% from 23,277 at end of 2024, per the annual report's management discussion - 1,159 net new stores added against the year's own target.
• Headcount: 98,515 permanent employees at December 31, 2025, up 3.00% from 95,648 at December 31, 2024.

Segment Performance

Alfamart reports the same three geographic segments as every prior post - Jabodetabek (greater Jakarta), Java excluding Jabodetabek, and Outside Java. The filing reports FY2025 directly against FY2024; the standalone fourth-quarter figures below are derived by subtracting each segment's already-reported 9M 2025 and 9M 2024 figures from this filing's full-year totals.

Segment	FY2025 Revenue	FY2024 Revenue	YoY	FY2025 Income	FY2024 Income	YoY	Margin
Jabodetabek	Rp33,953,883M	Rp32,335,307M	✅ +5.01%	Rp905,223M	Rp855,703M	✅ +5.79%	⚠️ 2.67% vs 2.65%
Java (excl. Jabodetabek)	Rp46,691,425M	Rp43,326,091M	✅ +7.77%	Rp2,760,667M	Rp2,604,635M	✅ +5.99%	⚠️ 5.91% vs 6.01%
Outside Java	Rp49,641,316M	Rp42,624,633M	✅ +16.46%	Rp2,970,908M	Rp2,367,030M	✅ +25.51%	✅ 5.98% vs 5.55%

Segment (standalone Q4)	Q4 2025 Revenue	Q4 2024 Revenue	YoY	Q4 2025 Income	Q4 2024 Income	YoY	Margin
Jabodetabek	Rp9,250,384M	Rp8,204,789M	✅ +12.74%	Rp303,295M	Rp195,425M	✅ +55.20%	✅ 3.28% vs 2.38%
Java (excl. Jabodetabek)	Rp13,027,861M	Rp10,579,289M	✅ +23.14%	Rp881,618M	Rp634,127M	✅ +39.03%	✅ 6.77% vs 5.99%
Outside Java	Rp13,532,458M	Rp11,284,872M	✅ +19.92%	Rp1,016,124M	Rp620,662M	✅ +63.71%	✅ 7.51% vs 5.50%

The full-year view understates how sharp the turnaround was: on a cumulative basis all three regions simply look like continued, unremarkable growth. The standalone quarter is where the real story sits - every region posted a standalone segment-income increase above 55% year-over-year, a mirror image of 9M 2025's finding that every region had declined standalone at once. Outside Java, the segment that had been this site's most reliable growth engine before slipping in the standalone third quarter, posted the fastest standalone income growth of the three (+63.71%) alongside the widest margin (7.51%, up from 5.50%). Jabodetabek - the segment that has struggled with standalone declines across multiple quarters since 2023 - also posted its best standalone margin reading of the year (3.28%). None of the three regions' standalone Q4 revenue growth (12.74%-23.14%) comes close to explaining income growth this large; margin expansion, not a sales surge, is doing the work here, the mirror image of 9M 2025's margin-compression story.

Segments Compared

On the full-year cumulative basis, combined segment income grew 13.89% (Rp5,827,368M to Rp6,636,798M) while unallocated overhead grew 18.62% (Rp1,748,841M to Rp2,074,403M) - overhead again outpacing the business, extending the pattern this site has tracked since Q3 2022. The standalone fourth quarter breaks that pattern for the first time in several quarters: combined segment income rose 51.77% standalone (Rp1,450,214M to Rp2,201,037M) while unallocated overhead grew a much slower 25.13% (Rp477,145M to Rp597,033M) - the segments finally outgrew the overhead line sitting above them, rather than the reverse. Standalone operating income rose 64.85% (Rp973,069M to Rp1,604,004M), a faster rate than segment income alone because overhead grew slower than segment income this quarter, the opposite of every standalone quarter since Q2 2025.

Beyond the Usual

The Company borrowed from a bank for the first time in years, ending a run of exactly-zero interest-bearing debt

On December 2, 2025, the Company obtained a Term Loan II facility of Rp760,000 million from PT Bank Mandiri (Persero) Tbk, part of a broader Rp2,240,000 million credit line (reduced that same day from an original Rp3,000,000 million Term Loan I obtained July 25, 2025) earmarked for capital expenditure on stores, warehouses, distribution centers, and branches - maturing July 24, 2030, at a 7.25% annual interest rate. The balance sheet shows total short- and long-term bank loans of Rp761,223 million at December 31, 2025, versus exactly zero at every quarter-end since Q3 2024, pushing the Debt-to-Equity Ratio^» to approximately 0.0393x. This is a genuinely new capital-structure decision, not a revolving working-capital draw of the kind this site has seen come and go before (see Q1 2024, where a similar-looking debt spike fully unwound by mid-year) - it's a five-year term facility, explicitly tied to capex rather than working capital.

A single term loan at 0.04x DER isn't a leverage concern on its own. What's worth watching is that it arrived in the same window as the Company's first-ever treasury share buyback (below) - two capital-allocation decisions, pointing in opposite directions on the balance sheet, disclosed within weeks of each other with no filing anywhere connecting the two or explaining the combined rationale.

The Company bought back its own shares for the first time in this site's coverage

Between December 9 and December 31, 2025, the Company purchased 146,161,300 treasury shares for a total cost of Rp279,629 million - an average price of roughly Rp1,913 per share, below the December 30, 2025 closing price of Rp1,975. The purchase reduced shares outstanding from 41,524,501,700 issued shares to 41,378,340,400 (issued shares minus treasury shares), the first change to the share count this site has recorded since the 2015 rights issue. The Company states it did not sell any of the treasury shares during 2025.

Buying back stock near a two-year low is a defensible use of cash on its own terms - the average purchase price sits below every month-end close this site has recorded since February 2025, save for November 2025's own even-lower Rp1,800 close (see [Target Valuation Range](#target-valuation-range)). But it's a genuinely new capital-allocation lever for a company that has never used one before, arriving the same month as its first-ever bank borrowing, and neither the interim nor the annual filing offers a combined explanation for financing a buyback partly through fresh, capex-earmarked debt rather than solely from operating cash flow.

The Bank Aladin stake's unrealized loss narrowed for a second time

The Company's Rp500,000 million investment in listed digital bank PT Bank Aladin Syariah Tbk was carried at Rp279,412 million at December 31, 2025 (an accumulated unrealized fair-value loss of Rp220,588 million, or 44.12% of cost), improved from Rp242,647 million a year earlier (a loss of Rp257,353 million, or 51.47% of cost). The near-completion-date market price cited in the notes is Rp434 per share. This is the second time this site has recorded the paper loss narrowing rather than deepening - the first was H1 2025 - though it remains well below the original investment.

The related-party lease to PIM keeps reversing direction, and the deposit tripled

The related-party lease liability to PT Perkasa Internusa Mandiri ("PIM"), an entity under common control, rose to Rp98,576 million at December 31, 2025, from Rp77,528 million a year earlier - a 27.15% increase that reverses 9M 2025's 13.47% decline, continuing a pattern of quarter-to-quarter reversals this site has now tracked across several consecutive filings with no explanation offered in any of them for what drives the swings. Separately, the related-party rent deposit to the same counterparty more than tripled to Rp9,044 million, from Rp2,808 million a year earlier - the largest single-year jump in this line this site has recorded, again with no accompanying explanation.

The rights issue mandate remains unaddressed for a twentieth consecutive filing

Shareholders approved the up-to-5-billion-share Capital Increase with Pre-emptive Rights (HMETD) at the May 6, 2021 Extraordinary General Meeting - a mandate this site has now tracked across twenty consecutive filings, most recently 9M 2025. This filing was authorized for issue on March 26, 2026 - roughly 1,420 days (about 46.6 months) past the mandate's own May 6, 2022 regulatory deadline under OJK Regulation No. 32/POJK.04/2015 - and contains no reference anywhere to the rights issue having lapsed, been extended, been formally cancelled, or been replaced by a fresh shareholder approval. The issued share count changed for the first time since the approval was granted, but only because of the new treasury buyback above, not because of any capital raise under this mandate.

Coverage Table

Metric	FY2025	FY2024	YoY	Why it matters
Net Revenue	Rp126,737,251M	Rp118,227,031M	✅ +7.2%	Growth held up across the full year despite the weak standalone Q3
Net Income (to owners)	Rp3,410,889M	Rp3,148,107M	✅ +8.4%	Reverses the 9M cumulative decline flagged last post
Segment income, all 3 regions (standalone Q4)	Rp2,201,037M	Rp1,450,214M	✅ +51.8%	Every region reversed Q3's simultaneous decline at once
Free cash flow	+Rp5,119,559M	+Rp5,519,789M	🔴 -7.3%	Operating cash flow fell even as reported profit grew
Interest-bearing debt	Rp761,223M	Rp0M	New	First bank borrowing in over a year (see Beyond the Usual)
Share price (quarter-end)	Rp1,975	Rp2,850	🔴 -30.7%	Down for the year despite profit growth; see Target Valuation Range
Rights issue disclosure	Zero mentions	Zero mentions	🔴 unchanged	Twentieth consecutive silent filing, now ~1,420 days past deadline

Target Valuation Range

Enterprise value ~Rp77.80 trillion (~$4.64B), implying 8.58x EV/EBITDA and a trailing P/E of ~23.96x - fairly valued to modestly cheap. The standalone Q4 reversal is real and broad-based, but a full year of share-price decline despite growing profit means the market is still pricing in more caution than the filed numbers alone would justify.

Alfamart's shares closed at Rp1,975 on December 30, 2025 - down 30.72% from the Rp2,850 close at FY2024, despite net income growing 8.35% over the same period. No stock split has occurred since July 2013, so no price adjustment is needed. The outstanding share count of 41,378,340,400 is down from 41,524,501,700 a year earlier because of the treasury buyback above.

Market cap → enterprise value	FY2025
Share price (period-end)	Rp1,975
Shares outstanding	41,378,340,400
Market capitalization	Rp81.72 trillion (~$4.87B)
Plus: interest-bearing debt	Rp761,223 million
Less: cash and equivalents	Rp4.68 trillion
Enterprise value	Rp77.80 trillion (~$4.64B)

Peer-multiple sanity check	9M 2025	FY2025	Change
Trailing P/E	~26.15x	~23.96x	✅ down
EV/EBITDA	~9.12x	~8.58x	✅ down
P/B	~4.64x	~4.53x	✅ down

Market cap fell to Rp81.72 trillion (~$4.87B), down from Rp118.34 trillion (~$7.32B) at FY2024 - a steeper decline than the 30.72% share-price fall alone, because this year's outstanding share count is also smaller after the treasury buyback. Trailing P/E (using FY2025 net income to owners of Rp3,410,889 million directly, since this is the annual filing) compressed even as earnings grew, because the share price fell faster than profit rose - down from ~37.59x a year ago at FY2024. EV/EBITDA (against FY2025 EBITDA of Rp9,063,659 million) and P/B (book value of approximately Rp18,021,330 million equity attributable to owners ÷ 41.38 billion outstanding shares) both fell modestly from 9M 2025.

No listed domestic peer still exists for a direct minimarket-format comparison - Indomaret remains privately held under the Salim Group. A full DCF still isn't included here, for the same reason as prior posts: the rights issue mandate's continued silence (see Beyond the Usual) leaves an unresolved capital-structure question a forward model would need to take a view on either way, now further complicated by the new bank facility and treasury buyback discussed above.

The Stock Fell for the Year Even as Profit Grew

The share price moved within a Rp1,800-Rp3,320 range across the trailing two years to this quarter-end (based on month-end closes) - a 45.78% peak-to-trough swing, the widest this site has recorded for the company, because the price set a new two-year low of Rp1,800 in November 2025 before recovering modestly to Rp1,975 by year-end. The October 2024 high of Rp3,320 came on a strong standalone Q3 2024; the November 2025 low came about a month after 9M 2025's own weak standalone-quarter results were filed, suggesting the market was still pricing in the weak nine-month trend even as the standalone fourth quarter was actually reversing it underneath. Cash dividends paid during 2025 rose 18.94% to Rp1,416,401 million even as free cash flow fell, pushing the payout ratio (dividends ÷ net income to owners) to approximately 41.53%, up from approximately 37.83% in 2024.

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