GOTO GoTo's Adjusted Numbers Say Fintech Beat Ride-Hailing. The Real Numbers Disagree.

Two Ways to Measure Which Segment Actually Wins

GoTo posted its second consecutive quarterly net profit in Q2 2026 - Rp252 billion (~$14.1 million), up from Rp171 billion in Q1 - and Group Adjusted EBITDA^» crossed Rp1 trillion (Rp1,010 billion, ~$56.4 million) for the first time, up 137% year-on-year. CEO Hans Patuwo used the results to make a specific claim: "Our Fintech business continues to do well, with its profitability now exceeding that of our On-demand Services business for the first time, reflecting the strength and balance of our ecosystem." On the metric he cited, he's right - Fintech's Adjusted EBITDA of Rp481 billion edged past On-Demand Services' Rp464 billion this quarter.

On the metric this site has tracked as the more honest one since Q1 2026's first-ever all-segment milestone, the claim doesn't hold. Real, unadjusted operating profit - straight from the financial statements' own segment note, before any of the fourteen add-backs GoTo's Adjusted EBITDA definition allows - shows On-Demand Services at +Rp423 billion this quarter versus Fintech's +Rp272 billion. On-Demand is still comfortably the more profitable segment on a real basis; Fintech's Adjusted EBITDA simply gets inflated further above its real result than On-Demand's does, because Fintech carries more of the add-back items (impairment of financing receivables, fair value adjustments, share-based compensation tied to its faster-growing headcount) that the adjusted metric strips out. Both readings are true simultaneously - Fintech is closing the gap fast, and Adjusted EBITDA crossed over first - but they are not the same claim, and management's framing collapsed them into one.

The quarter also carries its own real headline apart from the segment race: net revenue rose 31% year-on-year to Rp5.7 trillion, and profit attributable to owners of the parent reached Rp350 billion (~$19.5 million), more than triple Q1's Rp258 billion. Both a new commission cap taking effect the day after this quarter closed and a newly announced plan to cancel more than 32 billion treasury shares complicate what otherwise reads as a clean acceleration - both are covered below.

The Prescription

GoTo's management should stop citing Adjusted EBITDA rankings between segments as if they were a real-profitability comparison, and start disclosing the real, unadjusted segment result as a headline figure alongside it - not because Adjusted EBITDA is illegitimate, but because a claim like "Fintech's profitability now exceeds On-Demand Services" is only true on one of the two bases GoTo itself discloses, and the CEO's framing didn't say which one. A reader who takes the quote at face value walks away with the wrong picture of which business actually throws off more real profit today. GoTo has nothing to hide here - the real numbers are sitting in the segment note of every filed statement - so the fix costs nothing but a sentence of precision.

What GoTo should stop doing is announcing capital-return intentions (accelerating buybacks, cancelling treasury shares) in the same release that shows the buyback itself decelerating sharply. The Company spent Rp120.5 billion (~$6.7 million) buying back shares in Q2 2026, roughly 40% of Q1's Rp201 billion pace - even as it simultaneously announced an intention to cancel over 32 billion treasury shares, a symbolically larger capital-return signal than the quarter's actual repurchase activity. A market told in Q1 that buyback pace "may accelerate further" and then shown a 40%-of-prior-quarter number three months later, dressed up with a separate, not-yet-approved cancellation announcement, has reason to discount management's forward capital-allocation language until the numbers and the announcements start moving in the same direction.

Key Financial Metrics

Q2 2026 vs Q2 2025 (three months ended June 30), derived by subtracting GoTo's Q1 2026 and Q1 2025 unaudited interim financial statements from the six-month figures in this quarter's unaudited interim consolidated financial statements. FX: IDR 17,908 = USD 1 (Bank Indonesia's reported middle/reference rate for 30 June 2026), applied throughout for comparability - this rate was not disclosed in GoTo's own materials this quarter (no earnings call transcript exists for Q2 2026) and is sourced independently for USD conversion only.

Metric	Q2 2026 (IDR)	Q2 2026 (USD)	Q2 2025 (IDR)	YoY
Net Revenue	Rp5,653B	~$315.7M	Rp4,328B	✅ +30.6%
Profit from Operations (real, unadjusted)	+Rp364B	~$20.3M	+Rp22B	✅ Up ~16.6x
Adjusted EBITDA	Rp1,010B (17.9% of Net Revenue)	~$56.4M	Rp427B (9.9% of Net Revenue)	✅ +136.5%, first time over Rp1T
Net Profit (for the period)	+Rp253B	~$14.1M	-Rp375B	✅ Second consecutive profitable quarter
Free Cash Flow (OCF - capex)	~+Rp523B	~+$29.2M	~-Rp1,639B	✅ Third straight positive quarter, but under half Q1's record
Total Cash & Equivalents (period-end)	Rp23,465B	~$1,310.7M	Rp17,779B	✅ +32.0%

Profit attributable to owners of the parent was Rp350 billion (non-controlling interests booked a Rp97 billion loss for the period), more than the Rp252 billion total shown above, and more than triple Q1 2026's Rp258 billion. Free cash flow is derived the same way this site calculates it every quarter, since GoTo discloses only its own "Adjusted Free Cash Flow" measure directly: net cash provided from operating activities of +Rp662 billion less capital expenditure (intangible assets plus fixed assets) of -Rp140 billion gives +Rp523 billion (~$29.2 million) - positive for a third straight quarter, but less than half Q1 2026's record +Rp1,000 billion. Total assets grew to Rp47,477 billion (+1.5% quarter-on-quarter), total liabilities rose to Rp18,496 billion (+3.0% QoQ) - the fastest liability growth of the last two quarters - and total equity reached Rp28,981 billion (+0.6% QoQ).

Key Operational Metrics

Q2 2026, per GoTo's earnings presentation and press release

Group Annual Transacting Users^» reached 71 million, up 19% year-on-year. Core GTV^» accelerated sharply to Rp164 trillion (+83% YoY), up from Q1 2026's 65% growth rate - the fastest Core GTV growth this site has recorded for GoTo. On-Demand Services' GTV grew only 2% year-on-year to Rp16.7 trillion, as management explicitly prioritized margin over volume ahead of the new commission regulation (see below): delivery margin rose to 2.1% from 1.8% a year ago, and mobility margin nearly doubled to 5.0% from 3.0%. Completed orders, a volume metric less distorted by pricing choices than GTV, still grew a healthier 3% year-on-year and 8% quarter-on-quarter. Fintech Monthly Transacting Users^» reached 28.8 million (+29% YoY), with transactions growing faster still at +91% YoY to 2.4 billion - continued deepening of engagement per user, not just user growth. Total loans outstanding reached Rp11.0 trillion, up 58% year-on-year.

A new regulatory constraint on the On-Demand Services segment takes effect just after this quarter's close. On July 1, 2026 - the day after Q2 ended - a new 8% cap on driver commissions came into force under Indonesia's Minister of Transportation Decree No. 532 of 2026, covering Gojek's two-wheel transportation business, which management estimates at roughly 7% of Group net revenue. None of this quarter's results reflect the cap; management said one month of implementation had kept business conditions stable, but revised full-year Adjusted EBITDA guidance to reflect it regardless - lowering On-Demand Services' contribution to Rp1.4-1.5 trillion (from Rp1.7-1.8 trillion previously) while raising Fintech's to Rp1.7-1.8 trillion (from Rp1.4-1.5 trillion), leaving the Rp3.2-3.4 trillion Group total unchanged. A guidance reallocation that keeps the total identical while shifting the entire delta from the segment facing a new regulatory cap onto the segment that isn't invites the reading that the total itself may prove optimistic once Q3 shows the cap's actual bite, rather than the two offsetting moves being independently well-founded.

Three Segments: Fintech's Adjusted Metric Crosses Over, the Real One Still Trails

GoTo still reports the same three segments - On-Demand Services, Financial Technology, and E-Commerce. Real (unadjusted) operating profit by segment below comes from the financial statements' own segment note (derived as Q2 = H1 2026 minus Q1 2026, using each period's own filed figures); Adjusted EBITDA figures are as disclosed in the earnings materials.

On-Demand Services (Mobility & Delivery)

Net revenue (real, per the segment note) grew 19.3% year-on-year to Rp3,495 billion, and real operating profit rose 82.2% to +Rp423 billion - still comfortably the largest real-profit contributor in the Group, and the number that contradicts a reading of the CEO's "Fintech now exceeds On-Demand" quote as a real-profitability claim. Adjusted EBITDA reached Rp464 billion (+41% YoY), an eighth consecutive quarter of positive Adjusted EBITDA improvement. The margin-over-volume trade this quarter (2% GTV growth against a 41% Adjusted EBITDA increase) is a deliberate choice ahead of the July 1 commission cap - management is banking real profitability now, before a regulatory change compresses the segment's economics from Q3 onward.

Financial Technology

Real operating profit reached +Rp272 billion, up from -Rp58 billion a year ago - a second consecutive quarter of real profitability after Q1 2026's first-ever positive result. Segment Adjusted EBITDA of Rp481 billion (+447% YoY) is the figure that overtook On-Demand Services' Adjusted EBITDA this quarter, and on a percentage-growth basis Fintech remains the fastest-growing segment by far: Core GTV (excluding merchant payment-gateway volume) rose 91% year-on-year to Rp157 trillion, and MTUs^» grew 29% to 28.8 million. The loan book grew 58% year-on-year to Rp11.0 trillion, but the cost of that growth is showing up in the financial statements: impairment of financing and lending receivables rose 72% year-on-year in Q2 alone (to roughly Rp350 billion, from Rp203 billion) - faster than the loan book itself grew, even though the disclosed >90-days-past-due ratio held at 0.8% (see Beyond the Usual below).

E-Commerce

Real operating profit (the Tokopedia consultancy-and-support service fee, net of costs) reached +Rp214 billion, up 33.0% from +Rp161 billion a year ago, on fee revenue that grew 31.6% to Rp262 billion.

Segment Comparison

Segment	Net Revenue YoY (real)	Adjusted EBITDA	Real Operating Profit	vs Q2 2025
On-Demand Services	✅ +19.3%	✅ Rp464B, +41%	✅ +Rp423B	✅ Up from +Rp232B
Financial Technology	✅ +56.8%	✅ Rp481B, +447% - overtook ODS	✅ +Rp272B	✅ Up from -Rp58B (2nd straight real profit)
E-Commerce	✅ +31.6% (fee)	n/a - fee-based	✅ +Rp214B	✅ Up from +Rp161B
Group	✅ +30.6%	✅ Rp1,010B - first time over Rp1T	✅ +Rp364B	✅ Up from +Rp22B (~16.6x)

Corporate-level costs not allocated to any segment rose to -Rp545 billion, up 74% year-on-year and up 68% from Q1 2026's -Rp325 billion - the sharpest quarter-on-quarter increase in corporate costs this site has tracked for GoTo since the post-deconsolidation reporting period began, and one management did not address publicly (no earnings call transcript exists for this quarter to check).

Beyond the Usual

GoTo announced a plan to cancel more than 32 billion treasury shares, on top of an already-growing buyback stockpile

Alongside its results, GoTo announced its intention to cancel more than 32 billion treasury shares - approximately 2.7% of shares outstanding - pending shareholder approval at an extraordinary general meeting not yet scheduled. As of June 30, 2026, the Company held 39.78 billion of its own repurchased shares in treasury (up from 33.6 billion at the end of 2025), alongside a further 85.27 billion held by consolidated entities on the Company's behalf - a combined treasury balance of 125.05 billion shares, worth Rp5,510 billion at cost. A cancellation of the scale announced would permanently retire roughly a quarter of the Company's own repurchased shares, a genuine capital-return action distinct from simply holding bought-back stock in reserve.

The buyback pace GoTo said might accelerate instead fell by roughly 60% quarter-on-quarter

GoTo spent Rp120.5 billion (~$6.7 million) repurchasing 2.34 billion of its own shares in Q2 2026 - down sharply from Q1 2026's Rp201 billion, itself already a deceleration narrative this site has tracked quarter over quarter. This is the third different buyback-pace trajectory in three consecutive quarters (Rp53 billion in Q4 2025, Rp201 billion in Q1 2026, Rp120.5 billion in Q2 2026), with no stated framework connecting the swings to free cash flow or any other disclosed variable - the same gap this site flagged after Q1's acceleration. The pace inconsistency now sits alongside a treasury-share cancellation announcement of much larger scale than any single quarter's buyback activity, which is a stronger capital-return signal but doesn't resolve the underlying question of what actually drives the buyback's own pace quarter to quarter.

Bank Jago's disclosed fair value fell for a third straight quarter, now down 51% from its December 2025 level

The market-implied fair value of GoTo's 21.40% stake in Bank Jago - the IDX-listed price of the holding - fell to Rp2,862 billion at June 30, 2026, down from Q1 2026's Rp3,915 billion, a 26.9% single-quarter decline. Combined with Q1's 33.2% drop, the stake's disclosed fair value has now fallen 51.1% in two quarters, from Rp5,857 billion at the end of 2025. As in every prior quarter, GoTo's own equity-method carrying amount for the stake continues on an unrelated path, essentially unchanged - the balance sheet still gives a reader no visibility into what the market currently thinks this specific holding is worth.

The ecosystem-wide loan delinquency rate has now risen for five consecutive quarters, even as the >90-day NPL ratio holds flat

Total overdue balances across GoTo's ecosystem loan book (consumer and merchant lending, on- and off-balance-sheet) reached 8.2% of the Rp10.32 trillion book at June 30, 2026 - the fifth consecutive quarterly increase in this ratio, up from 7.3% a year earlier. The >90-days-past-due bucket, the figure closest to a conventional Non-Performing Loan^» ratio, held at 0.8% for a fifth straight quarter, supporting management's "stable credit quality" framing on that specific measure. But the earlier-stage buckets are where the creep is concentrated - the 31-90-days-past-due bucket rose to 4.3% of the book from 3.5% a year ago - and the financial statements show impairment expense for financing and lending receivables growing faster than the loan book itself this quarter (see Financial Technology segment above). Neither trend has yet reached the >90-day bucket that defines the headline NPL claim, but both are the kind of early-stage credit signal worth watching before it does.

A new related-party revenue line kept growing, pushing related-party revenue concentration to a new high

Net revenue from PT Semangat Logistik Andalan (SLA), a subsidiary of associate Tokopedia first disclosed as a related party in Q1 2026, reached approximately Rp208 billion in Q2 2026 alone (Rp404 billion for H1 2026, versus Rp196 billion in Q1). Combined with the ongoing Tokopedia consultancy fee, total related-party net revenue reached 8.87% of H1 2026's total net revenue, up from 5.76% in H1 2025 - continuing the upward trend this site flagged last quarter, on a business relationship that predates the revenue itself (SLA already carried a related-party trade-receivable balance before it began generating disclosed revenue).

GoTo's multi-year cloud infrastructure commitment is running down as scheduled, with no changes to its terms

The Group's five-year cloud infrastructure agreement with Alibaba Cloud (Singapore) and Tencent Cloud International, which began in October 2024, carried a remaining minimum contractual commitment of USD30.4 million (Rp542 billion) as of June 30, 2026, down from USD38.7 million (Rp658 billion) three months earlier - a normal reduction as the fixed-term agreement runs its course, not a change in scope or terms. This is the kind of multi-year take-or-pay obligation that functions economically like debt but shows up only in a footnote table rather than a balance-sheet liability line - worth keeping in view given management's stated push toward consolidating over 50 AI initiatives into a single integrated program, since AI workloads are exactly what this kind of cloud capacity commitment typically supports.

A related-party credit facility from Bank Jago remained unchanged at 75% utilization this quarter

The Rp200 billion term-loan facility GoTo subsidiary GKAB signed with Bank Jago in February 2026 remained drawn at Rp150 billion as of June 30, 2026 - unchanged from Q1 2026's level, meaning the facility neither drew down further nor was repaid this quarter.

Target Valuation Range

Enterprise value ~Rp54,589B (~$3.05B), implying 2.63x EV/TTM Revenue - the lowest multiple this site has recorded for GoTo post-deconsolidation. GoTo's stock closed the quarter essentially flat, but the multiple it trades at keeps compressing anyway, because real operating results are growing faster than the share price - a pattern that has now held for two straight quarters and leaves the stock looking cheaper on fundamentals with each one, assuming the July 1 commission cap doesn't undo the segment's current margin gains.

GoTo's share count held at 1,191,144,997,220 shares issued, unchanged from Q1 2026 - the announced treasury-share cancellation (see Beyond the Usual above) had not yet been executed as of June 30, 2026. The stock closed June 2026 at Rp50, down just 2.0% from Q1 2026's Rp51 close - essentially flat for the quarter (Rp54 in April, Rp50 in May, Rp50 in June), a marked contrast to the prior two quarters' sharp declines. GoTo has not split its stock since its IPO, so Rp50 is the actual nominal quoted price. Over the trailing two years, the stock ranged from a low of Rp50 (May-June 2026) to a high of Rp85 (April 2025) - a 41.2% peak-to-trough decline - with this quarter's close sitting at the very bottom of that range.

Market cap → enterprise value	Q2 2026
Share price (period-end)	Rp50
Shares outstanding	1,191,144,997,220
Market capitalization	Rp59,557B (~$3.33B)
Total liabilities	~Rp18,496B
Less: cash and equivalents	~Rp23,465B
Enterprise value	Rp54,589B (~$3.05B)

Market cap is down slightly from ~$3.58B at Q1 2026's close, and enterprise value from ~$3.29B, as the cash balance drew down further.

Peer-multiple sanity check	Q1 2026	Q2 2026	Change
TTM Net Revenue	n/a	Rp20,758B (~$1,159M)	-
Enterprise value	~$3.29B	~$3.05B	⚠️ down
EV/TTM Net Revenue	2.88x	2.63x	✅ down, despite a flat stock price - TTM revenue grew faster than EV

This is now the lowest EV/Revenue multiple this site has recorded for GoTo on a post-deconsolidation basis.

DCF (base/bull/bear, illustrative only) - the scenarios turn almost entirely on the July 1, 2026 commission cap, a known, dated regulatory change whose actual financial effect this quarter's results cannot yet show. Implied prices below apply an illustrative EV/FY2026-Adjusted-EBITDA multiple to each scenario's EBITDA outcome (12x bear, ~16.5x base - matching today's implied multiple on the guidance midpoint, 20x bull), then back out market cap and per-share price using the current Rp18,496B liabilities and Rp23,465B cash - this is a sanity-check exercise, not a modeled multi-year DCF:

Scenario	Key assumption	FY2026 Adj. EBITDA	Multiple	Implied price
Current (Q2 2026 close)	— actual market price, for reference	—	2.63x EV/TTM Revenue (implied)	Rp50
Bear	The 8% commission cap proves harder to absorb than guidance assumes; On-Demand's margin gains reverse in Q3; Fintech's rising early-stage delinquency migrates into the >90-day NPL bucket; the buyback stays erratic with no coherent capital-return policy.	~Rp2.7T (below guidance)	12x	~Rp31
Base	The cap's ~7%-of-revenue exposure lands within management's revised guidance split; Fintech holds near current profitability while On-Demand absorbs the cap through banked efficiencies; full-year Adjusted EBITDA lands within the reaffirmed Rp3.2-3.4T range.	~Rp3.3T (guidance midpoint)	~16.5x	~Rp50
Bull	On-Demand's margin discipline proves durable post-cap; the loan book keeps growing near 60% YoY without delinquency creep reaching NPL; the buyback and cancellation combine into a credible capital-return story; the market re-rates GoTo off its current cheapest-on-record multiple.	~Rp3.6T (above guidance)	20x	~Rp65

The base case landing almost exactly on the current Rp50 close is itself informative: the market is currently priced for management's guidance to hold, no more and no less - meaning Q3's actual commission-cap impact, not this quarter's results, is what will move the stock toward the bear or bull case.

Reverse DCF: A stock priced at its two-year low, at the cheapest EV/Revenue multiple this site has recorded for GoTo, against a quarter where real operating profit rose roughly 16.6-fold year-on-year and Adjusted EBITDA crossed Rp1 trillion for the first time, implies the market is pricing in a meaningful probability that the July 1 commission cap - a known, quantifiable regulatory change - erodes more of On-Demand Services' newly-won margin than management's guidance reallocation assumes. Q3 2026's results, the first to actually reflect the cap, will be the real test of whether that market skepticism or management's guidance is closer to right.

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