Two One-Off-Heavy Halves Make for a Misleading Comparison
H1 2022 revenue grew 50.4% year-over-year to Rp22,526.6 billion, continuing the merger-driven scale jump Q1 2022's coverage first showed. Net income attributable to owners fell 41.8% to Rp3,260.3 billion from Rp5,598.0 billion - a decline that looks alarming until a reader remembers both halves carry large, unrelated one-off gains. H1 2021's Rp5,598.0 billion included the Rp6,166.9 billion tower sale-leaseback gain; this year's Rp3,260.3 billion includes a new Rp3,580.3 billion "gain associated with the loss of control of a subsidiary," a fresh deconsolidation event not previously disclosed. Strip both one-offs out and adjusted H1 2022 operating income of roughly Rp2,516.9 billion is actually a higher base than adjusted H1 2021's Rp906.6 billion - genuine improvement, obscured by comparing one large one-off against a different large one-off.
This is now the third consecutive year this site has flagged a "loss of control of a subsidiary" gain in Indosat's filings - a Rp978.1 billion version showed up unexplained in FY2021's Q4, and now a much larger Rp3,580.3 billion version lands here. Neither disclosure names the subsidiary or the counterparty clearly enough for an outside reader to track whether this is one ongoing divestiture program or several distinct transactions (see Beyond the Usual).
The Prescription
Indosat should start presenting a standing "adjusted EBITDA/adjusted net income" reconciliation table in its own quarterly materials - not because the one-offs are illegitimate (the tower sale and subsidiary deconsolidations both appear to be real transactions with real cash flows), but because three consecutive years of large, differently-sized one-off gains landing in different quarters makes headline YoY comparisons actively misleading for any reader who doesn't dig through the P&L notes the way this site has had to every single quarter since FY2020.
What it should stop doing: disclosing "loss of control of a subsidiary" gains without naming which subsidiary. This is now the second time in three quarters this exact line item has appeared with no counterparty or entity name attached (see Beyond the Usual below) - a related-party or governance-conscious reader has no way to independently verify these transactions were conducted at arm's length.
Key Financial Metrics
H1 2022 (six months ended June 30, 2022, merged entity) vs. H1 2021 (partial pre-merger comparison base), consolidated
FX: Rp14,848 = US$1 (Jun 30, 2022) and Rp14,269 = US$1 (Dec 31, 2021) - period-end market quotes, used only to convert the USD columns.
| Metric | H1 2022 (Rp) | H1 2022 (US$) | H1 2021 (Rp) | YoY (Rp) | YoY (US$) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | Rp22,526.6B | ~$1,517.4M | Rp14,983.5B | ✅ +50.4% | ✅ +47.4% |
| EBITDA» (operating income + D&A; includes this year's deconsolidation gain) | Rp12,808.6B | ~$862.6M | Rp12,106.7B | ✅ +5.8% (one-off distorted both periods) | ✅ |
| ...EBITDA, excluding both years' one-off gains/impairment | Rp9,228.3B | ~$621.5M | Rp6,481.1B | ✅ +42.4% | ✅ +39.2% |
| Operating Income» | Rp6,097.2B | ~$410.6M | Rp7,073.5B | ⚠️ -13.8% (one-off distorted both periods) | ⚠️ |
| Net Income (attributable to owners) | Rp3,260.3B | ~$219.6M | Rp5,598.0B | ⚠️ -41.8% (one-off distorted both periods) | ⚠️ |
| ...of which, consolidated total (incl. non-controlling interests») | Rp3,566.9B | ~$240.3M | Rp5,641.2B | ⚠️ -36.8% | ⚠️ |
| Free Cash Flow» (operating cash flow - capex) | Rp1,844.9B | ~$124.3M | Rp216.5B | ✅ +752.2% | ✅ |
| Total Cash | Rp6,813.2B | ~$458.9M | Rp10,899.9B | ⚠️ -37.5% | ⚠️ |
Total debt rose to Rp20,605.5 billion from Rp15,244.1 billion a year earlier (+35.2%), the combined entity now servicing a materially larger debt load than pre-merger Indosat alone. Free cash flow improved sharply not because of a weak comparison base but because H1 2021's capex was unusually front-loaded for the tower deal era.
H1 2022's 41.8% profit decline is an artifact of comparing two different one-off gains, not a real operating deterioration - adjusted for both years' one-offs, operating income actually grew a strong ~42%. The real thing to watch is a fresh, unexplained Rp3,580.3 billion "loss of control" gain, the second such item in three quarters. See Beyond the Usual below.
Key Operational Metrics
Combined-entity subscriber and ARPU figures remain not available in the materials located for this half; segment revenue (below) is the available quantitative detail.
Segment Comparison
| Segment | Revenue H1 2022 | Revenue H1 2021 | YoY | Share of Revenue |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Selular (cellular) | Rp19,537.0B | Rp12,403.3B | ✅ +57.5% | 86.7% |
| MIDI (enterprise/data/internet) | Rp2,618.0B | Rp2,296.7B | ✅ +14.0% | 11.6% |
| Telekomunikasi Tetap (fixed) | Rp371.5B | Rp283.5B | ✅ +31.0% | 1.6% |
| Total | Rp22,526.6B | Rp14,983.5B | ✅ +50.4% | 100% |
Selular
Continued absorbing essentially all of the merger's revenue scale, growing to 86.7% of total revenue from 82.8% pre-merger, consistent with the pattern Q1 2022's coverage first showed.
MIDI
Grew a real, un-merger-inflated 14.0% - continuing the recovery this site tracked through 2021's Q1, H1, and 9M coverage, though its share of total revenue keeps shrinking in relative terms as Selular's merger-driven scale dwarfs it.
Telekomunikasi Tetap
Grew 31.0%, a bigger jump than Q1 2022's 39.5% pace would suggest was slowing - still under 2% of total revenue, but posting real, sustained growth for a fourth straight period now since H1 2021's turnaround.
Beyond the Usual
A Second Unexplained "Loss of Control of a Subsidiary" Gain, Nearly Four Times the Size of the First
H1 2022's P&L includes a Rp3,580.3 billion "gain associated with the loss of control of a subsidiary" - almost four times the size of the Rp978.1 billion version FY2021's Q4 coverage flagged as unexplained. This filing again doesn't name the subsidiary or counterparty. Two large, unnamed subsidiary-deconsolidation gains inside nine months is a real pattern worth tracking - either Indosat is running an active, multi-transaction divestiture program (plausible, given the tower-sale precedent) or the disclosure practice itself needs tightening so shareholders can independently assess whether these transactions were conducted at fair value.
Finance Costs Kept Growing Faster Than the Old Standalone Base
Finance costs for H1 2022 (derivable from the P&L's non-operating section) continued the trajectory Q1 2022's coverage flagged - the combined entity's larger debt load (Rp20,605.5 billion total debt, up 35.2% YoY) is now a structural feature of the post-merger balance sheet, not a one-quarter integration bump, worth continuing to watch as the single biggest drag on net income growth relative to the strong revenue and adjusted-EBITDA trends.
The Legacy Corruption Provision Sat Unchanged Through the Merger's First Half-Year
Indosat's Rp1,358.6 billion "provision for legal case" - unchanged in every filing this site has reviewed since FY2018, through the merger closing in Q1 2022 - remained exactly Rp1,358.6 billion again this half, now the ninth consecutive filing with zero movement.
Target Valuation Range
Bottom line: roughly Rp4,850-Rp10,500 fair-value range (bear-to-bull, adjusted EV/EBITDA-based) against a Rp6,550 actual nominal close - the stock traded mid-range, reflecting the market's own difficulty pricing a company whose reported earnings keep swinging on differently-sized, unnamed one-off items.
| Market cap → enterprise value | H1 2022 (period-end) |
|---|---|
| Share price (period-end, nominal) | Rp6,550 |
| Shares outstanding (post-merger) | 8,062,702,740 |
| Market capitalization | ~Rp52,810.7B (~$3,556.0M) |
| Plus: total principal debt (loans, bonds, sukuk; excl. lease liabilities) | Rp20,605.5B |
| Less: cash and cash equivalents | Rp6,813.2B |
| Enterprise value | ~Rp66,603.0B (~$4,486.0M) |
| Peer/multiple sanity check | H1 2022 (annualized, adjusted) | Q1 2022 (annualized) |
|---|---|---|
| EBITDA (adjusted, annualized) | Rp18,456.6B | Rp18,104.8B |
| EV / EBITDA (adjusted) | ~3.61x | ~3.19x |
| Net debt (total debt - cash) | Rp13,792.3B | Rp16,076.9B |
| Net debt / EBITDA (adjusted) | ~0.75x | ~0.89x |
| P/E | not meaningful (headline dominated by one-off gain) | ~81.0x (annualized) |
| Scenario | Key assumption | Multiple | Implied EV | Implied nominal price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Current (H1 2022 close) | actual market price | ~3.61x adj. EBITDA | ~Rp66,603B | Rp6,550 |
| Bear | Deconsolidation gains stop recurring, adjusted EBITDA growth slows, multiple compresses | ~2.75x | ~Rp50,756B | ~Rp4,857 |
| Base | Adjusted operating trends continue, multiple holds near current level | ~3.75x | ~Rp69,212B | ~Rp7,097 |
| Bull | Synergy realization accelerates, combined entity re-rates toward regional peer multiples | ~5.25x | ~Rp96,897B | ~Rp10,483 |
Net debt/EBITDA improved to ~0.75x from Q1's ~0.89x, a genuinely encouraging sign that the post-merger leverage picture is stabilizing rather than deteriorating further. Still no multi-year DCF - two quarters of merged-entity data with two different large, unnamed one-off items in them isn't yet a stable enough base to project confidently.
PT Indosat Tbk's unaudited interim consolidated financial statements for the six-month period ended June 30, 2022, together with the accompanying notes.