The First Revenue Decline Since the Merger, Alongside the First Concrete AI-Infrastructure Order
Q1 2025 breaks the growth streak this site has tracked in every quarter since the merger: revenue fell 1.9% YoY to Rp13,577.9 billion, and the company's own EBITDA fell 1.4% to Rp6,415 billion. Net income attributable to owners still grew a modest 1.3% to Rp1,311.1 billion, held up almost entirely by cost discipline - personnel expense fell 15.9% and marketing expense fell 19.9% YoY - rather than by revenue growth. The company's own normalized net profit figure, which strips out a one-off in "other income - net" (Rp322.1 billion this quarter versus Rp42.0 billion a year ago), tells a somewhat weaker story: Rp1,154 billion, down 8.6% YoY from Q1 2024's normalized Rp1,262 billion.
The quarter's real news, though, is forward-looking: Indosat's investor presentation discloses it has ordered NVIDIA GB200 GPUs, with AI servers targeted to be operational by Q3 2025, and states the company is "on track to deliver net new revenue of US$35 million in 2025" from this initiative, with contribution starting in Q2 2025. This is the first concrete, dated commitment this site has seen behind the "AI Native Telco" strategy June 2024's Capital Markets Day first announced - and it lands directly in the gap that post flagged about the strategy lacking a specific capex figure or timeline.
Against that backdrop, the stock itself had a rough quarter: monthly closing prices show Indosat trading around Rp2,310 in January 2025 and closing the quarter at Rp1,455 on March 27 - a roughly 40% decline within three months, on no single disclosed company-specific cause in the materials reviewed for this post. This matches the broader, well-documented sell-off across Indonesian equities in February-March 2025.
The Prescription
Indosat should quantify the GB200 GPU order's capital cost explicitly in its next filing - the US$35 million net-new-revenue target is a useful output metric, but a reader can't yet judge whether that revenue justifies the capex behind it without knowing the investment size. What it should keep doing: cost discipline that held profit growth positive even as revenue declined - genuinely useful in a quarter where the market itself was pricing significant broader risk into Indonesian equities.
Key Financial Metrics
Q1 2025 (quarter ended March 31, 2025) vs Q1 2024, consolidated
FX: Rp16,575 = US$1 (March 31, 2025) - period-end market quote, used only to convert the USD columns.
| Metric | Q1 2025 (Rp) | Q1 2025 (US$) | Q1 2024 (Rp) | YoY (Rp) | YoY (US$) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | Rp13,577.9B | ~$819.2M | Rp13,835.3B | ⚠️ -1.9% | ⚠️ |
| EBITDA» (company-disclosed, reported) | Rp6,415.0B | ~$387.1M | Rp6,509.0B | ⚠️ -1.4% | ⚠️ |
| Operating Income» (pre-financing subtotal) | Rp2,789.6B | ~$168.3M | Rp2,766.0B | ✅ +0.9% | ✅ |
| Net Income (attributable to owners, reported) | Rp1,311.1B | ~$79.1M | Rp1,294.8B | ✅ +1.3% | ✅ |
| ...Net Income, company's own normalized figure | ~Rp1,154B | ~$69.6M | ~Rp1,262B | ⚠️ -8.6% | ⚠️ |
| ...of which, consolidated total (incl. non-controlling interests») | Rp1,412.2B | ~$85.2M | Rp1,391.6B | ✅ +1.5% | ✅ |
| Free Cash Flow» (operating cash flow - capex) | Rp2,450.1B | ~$147.8M | Rp3,580.9B | ⚠️ -31.6% | ⚠️ |
| Total Cash | Rp4,280.4B | ~$258.3M | Rp7,849.5B (Q1 2024 close) | ⚠️ -45.5% | ⚠️ |
Total debt fell to Rp13,602.7 billion from FY2024's Rp14,899.4 billion (-8.7% QoQ), reversing the small uptick FY2024's coverage flagged. Free cash flow fell sharply (-31.6% YoY) as capex grew 34.1% to Rp3,617.8 billion, continuing the capex acceleration this site has tracked since 9M 2024 - now plausibly connected to the AI-infrastructure buildout disclosed this quarter.
Q1 2025's headline profit growth (+1.3%) masks a revenue decline and an 8.6% drop in normalized profit - the real story is Indosat's first concrete AI-infrastructure commitment, NVIDIA GB200 GPUs targeted operational by Q3 2025, landing in a quarter when the stock itself fell roughly 40%. See Beyond the Usual below.
Key Operational Metrics
Q1 2025's presentation discloses EBITDA margin of 47.2% (up 1.9 percentage points QoQ from Q4 2024's 45.3%, and up 0.2 percentage points YoY from Q1 2024's 47.0%) - a genuine margin improvement despite the revenue decline, confirming the cost discipline flagged above. A numeric subscriber count or blended ARPU figure wasn't available in text-extractable form this quarter, though the presentation's qualitative framing describes "strong ARPU trajectory" continuing to offset "challenging" [subscriber/revenue] conditions.
Segment Comparison
| Segment | Revenue Q1 2025 | Revenue Q1 2024 | YoY | Share of Revenue |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Selular (cellular) | Rp11,421.7B | Rp11,656.7B | ⚠️ -2.0% | 84.1% |
| MIDI (enterprise/data/internet) | Rp1,961.4B | Rp1,971.3B | ⚠️ -0.5% | 14.4% |
| Telekomunikasi Tetap (fixed) | Rp194.7B | Rp207.2B | ⚠️ -6.0% | 1.4% |
| Total | Rp13,577.9B | Rp13,835.3B | ⚠️ -1.9% | 100% |
Selular
Declined 2.0%, its first YoY decline this site has tracked for the segment since coverage of the merged entity began - a genuine reversal after Q1 2024's strong 13.6% growth.
MIDI
Essentially flat (-0.5%), a sharp deceleration from the ~23-35% growth pace this segment showed throughout 2024 - worth watching closely given MIDI has been this site's most consistent growth story since Q1 2024.
Telekomunikasi Tetap
Declined 6.0%, a smaller decline than FY2024's full-year -14.1% but still negative for a second straight reported period.
Beyond the Usual
Indosat Disclosed a Concrete NVIDIA GB200 GPU Order With a Dated Revenue Target
The investor presentation states Indosat has ordered NVIDIA GB200 GPUs, with AI servers targeted to be operational by Q3 2025, and that the company is "on track to deliver net new revenue of US$35 million in 2025" from this initiative, with contribution beginning in Q2 2025. This is the first dated, quantified commitment behind the "AI Native Telco" strategy June 2024's Capital Markets Day first announced. Flagged yellow, not green, because it's a real capital commitment with an as-yet-undisclosed cost figure attached to a specific revenue target - worth tracking closely whether the Q3 2025 operational date and US$35 million target are actually met.
The Stock Fell Roughly 40% During the Quarter, With No Single Disclosed Company-Specific Cause
Monthly closing prices show Indosat at approximately Rp2,310 in January 2025, falling to Rp1,480 by February and Rp1,455 by March 27 - a decline of roughly 40% within the quarter. Nothing in the source documents reviewed for this post attributes the drop to an Indosat-specific event; it's consistent with the broader, well-documented sell-off across Indonesian equities during this period. Noted here as a data-methodology observation, not a company-specific finding.
The Company's Own Normalized Profit Figure Diverges Meaningfully From Reported for the First Time in Over a Year
Since Q1 2024's coverage first noted a fully clean quarter, every period through FY2024 showed reported and normalized profit moving closely together. This quarter, reported net income grew 1.3% while the company's own normalized figure fell 8.6% - a meaningful divergence traceable to the unusually large "other income - net" line (Rp322.1 billion vs. Rp42.0 billion a year ago) inflating the reported figure. Worth watching whether this divergence recurs or was a one-quarter item.
Target Valuation Range
Bottom line: roughly Rp1,050-Rp1,730 fair-value range (bear-to-bull, annualized EV/EBITDA-based) against a Rp1,455 actual close - the stock traded in the lower-middle of that range, reflecting the broader market sell-off more than a company-specific fundamental deterioration.
| Market cap → enterprise value | Q1 2025 (period-end, post-split) |
|---|---|
| Share price (period-end, nominal) | Rp1,455 |
| Shares outstanding (post-split) | 32,250,810,957 |
| Market capitalization | ~Rp46,924.9B (~$2,832.0M) |
| Plus: total principal debt (loans, bonds, sukuk; excl. lease liabilities) | Rp13,602.7B |
| Less: cash and cash equivalents | Rp4,280.4B |
| Enterprise value | ~Rp56,247.2B (~$3,394.4M) |
| Peer/multiple sanity check | Q1 2025 (annualized) | FY2024 |
|---|---|---|
| EBITDA (annualized) | Rp25,660.0B | Rp26,375.0B |
| EV / EBITDA | ~2.19x | ~3.43x |
| Net debt (total debt - cash) | Rp9,322.3B | Rp10,445.3B |
| Net debt / EBITDA | ~0.36x | ~0.40x |
| P/E (annualized, reported EPS) | ~9.0x | ~16.3x |
| Scenario | Key assumption | Multiple | Implied EV | Implied nominal price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Current (Q1 2025 close) | actual market price | ~2.19x annualized EBITDA | ~Rp56,247B | Rp1,455 |
| Bear | Revenue decline continues and the GB200 AI initiative doesn't hit its 2025 revenue target | ~1.85x | ~Rp47,471B | ~Rp1,051 |
| Base | Revenue stabilizes as MIDI and cellular find a floor, AI initiative delivers on schedule | ~2.5x | ~Rp64,150B | ~Rp1,568 |
| Bull | The multiple compression proves purely market-sentiment-driven and reverses as AI revenue materializes | ~2.9x | ~Rp74,414B | ~Rp1,879 |
Net debt/EBITDA improved slightly to ~0.36x from FY2024's ~0.40x, and the EV/EBITDA multiple's sharp compression (from ~3.43x to ~2.19x) traces almost entirely to the stock price decline rather than any deterioration in the underlying leverage or cash position - this is the cheapest valuation this site has recorded for Indosat since coverage of the merged entity began. Still no multi-year DCF: this is a genuinely unusual quarter (a market-wide sell-off overlapping a real operational inflection), and this site would want at least one more quarter to separate the two effects before building a standalone projection.
PT Indosat Tbk's unaudited interim consolidated financial statements for the three-month period ended March 31, 2025, together with the accompanying notes, and the company's Q1 2025 investor presentation.