A Third Clean Quarter, But the First Sign of Capex Catching Up With Cash Flow
9M 2024 makes it three straight periods without a material one-off gain complicating the YoY comparison, following Q1 and H1 2024: revenue grew 11.6% YoY to Rp41,812.0 billion, the company's own EBITDA grew 14.5% to Rp20,000 billion, and net income attributable to owners grew 39.1% to Rp3,878.2 billion. Reported operating income grew 19.8% (or 33.5% against 9M 2023's one-off-adjusted comparator of Rp6,344.4 billion). Growth is decelerating slightly quarter to quarter (Q1's 39.3%, H1's 43.3%, now 9M's 39.1% on a net-income basis) but remains solid and, crucially, still clean.
The one genuine inflection this quarter: free cash flow fell 10.2% YoY to Rp6,191.3 billion, the first FCF decline this site has tracked for Indosat since FY2023's coverage - operating cash flow grew a modest 6.1% while capex jumped 20.6% to Rp9,304.9 billion for the nine months, as the network-investment and MIDI/enterprise-scale-up spending flagged since H1 2024's Capital Markets Day started showing up more visibly in the cash flow statement.
The Prescription
Indosat should clarify, in its next quarterly disclosure, how much of the 20.6% YoY capex jump is attributable to the AI-strategy investments flagged at June's Capital Markets Day versus ordinary network densification - a reader currently has to infer the connection rather than see it stated. What it should keep doing: continuing the genuinely clean comparison streak, and the subsequent-events disclosure practice this filing shows for the 1-for-4 stock split, which is transparent about its effective date and already reflected in the EPS calculation rather than left ambiguous.
Key Financial Metrics
9M 2024 (nine months ended September 30, 2024) vs 9M 2023, consolidated
FX: Rp15,140 = US$1 (September 30, 2024) - period-end market quote, used only to convert the USD columns.
| Metric | 9M 2024 (Rp) | 9M 2024 (US$) | 9M 2023 (Rp) | YoY (Rp) | YoY (US$) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | Rp41,812.0B | ~$2,761.4M | Rp37,462.4B | ✅ +11.6% | ✅ |
| EBITDA» (company-disclosed) | Rp20,000.0B | ~$1,320.7M | Rp17,467.0B | ✅ +14.5% | ✅ |
| Operating Income» (pre-financing subtotal; no one-off this period) | Rp8,468.3B | ~$559.4M | Rp7,066.8B (incl. Rp722.4bn one-off) | ✅ +19.8% (reported); ✅ +33.5% (vs. 9M 2023 excl. one-off) | ✅ |
| Net Income (attributable to owners) | Rp3,878.2B | ~$256.2M | Rp2,787.1B (reported, incl. one-off) | ✅ +39.1% (reported); ✅ +75.1% (vs. 9M 2023 normalized ~Rp2,215bn) | ✅ |
| ...of which, consolidated total (incl. non-controlling interests») | Rp4,158.9B | ~$274.7M | Rp2,986.0B | ✅ +39.3% | ✅ |
| Free Cash Flow» (operating cash flow - capex) | Rp6,191.3B | ~$408.9M | Rp6,895.0B | ⚠️ -10.2% | ⚠️ |
| Total Cash | Rp4,007.5B | ~$264.7M | Rp6,803.0B (9M 2023 close) | ⚠️ -41.1% | ⚠️ |
Total debt fell to Rp13,694.0 billion from H1 2024's Rp13,913.2 billion (-1.6% QoQ), continuing the slow deleveraging trend, but total cash fell sharply as capex accelerated - operating cash flow (Rp15,496.2 billion for the nine months, +6.1% YoY) grew far more slowly than capex (Rp9,304.9 billion, +20.6% YoY), the direct cause of this period's FCF decline.
9M 2024 extends the genuinely clean profit-growth streak to three straight periods, but free cash flow fell for the first time in this site's 2023-2024 coverage as capex growth outran operating cash flow growth - worth watching whether this is the AI-strategy investment ramp beginning to show up, or a temporary timing effect. See Beyond the Usual below for the stock split disclosure.
Key Operational Metrics
9M 2024's located source documents don't include a numeric subscriber count or blended ARPU table in text-extractable form this period - not available.
Segment Comparison
| Segment | Revenue 9M 2024 | Revenue 9M 2023 | YoY | Share of Revenue |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Selular (cellular) | Rp35,234.8B | Rp32,173.4B | ✅ +9.5% | 84.3% |
| MIDI (enterprise/data/internet) | Rp5,907.2B | Rp4,538.4B | ✅ +30.2% | 14.1% |
| Telekomunikasi Tetap (fixed) | Rp670.1B | Rp750.6B | ⚠️ -10.7% | 1.6% |
| Total | Rp41,812.0B | Rp37,462.4B | ✅ +11.6% | 100% |
Selular
Grew 9.5%, consistent with the low-double-digit pace Q1 and H1 2024 each showed.
MIDI
Grew 30.2% cumulatively for the nine months, holding roughly at H1's cumulative 29.3% pace - now consistently the fastest-growing large segment across three straight periods, and the segment most plausibly linked to the stepped-up capex flagged above.
Telekomunikasi Tetap
Declined 10.7% cumulatively, deepening from H1's cumulative -1.9% - a real reversal now, not a one-quarter blip, of the growth streak that ran from H1 2021 through FY2023.
Beyond the Usual
A 1-for-4 Stock Split Is Disclosed as a Subsequent Event and Already Reflected in EPS
The P&L's earnings-per-share line is explicitly footnoted as calculated using the post-split share count, "based on number of shares after stock split that is effective as of 14 October 2024" - Indosat's shares increased from 8,062,702,739 to 32,250,810,957 (Note discloses the split ratio directly). The company's disclosure here is genuinely clean: the effective date and share-count change are both stated plainly rather than left for a reader to reconstruct, which is exactly the kind of clarity this site's prior ISAT posts have had to work around using split-adjusted historical prices.
Free Cash Flow Declined for the First Time Since This Site Began Covering the Post-Merger Period
Every quarterly and annual ISAT post this site has published since Q1 2023 showed FCF growing YoY - this is the first period where it declined (-10.2%), driven entirely by capex growth (+20.6%) outpacing operating cash flow growth (+6.1%). Not itself a red flag - the company's leverage and cash position both remain healthy - but a real inflection worth tracking into FY2024's year-end close, especially given the still-unquantified AI-strategy capex flagged in H1 2024's coverage.
Target Valuation Range
Bottom line: roughly Rp79,900-Rp127,400 fair-value enterprise range (bear-to-bull, annualized EV/EBITDA-based, implying roughly Rp9,100-Rp14,800 nominal per share) against a Rp10,950 actual nominal close - the stock traded in the lower-middle of that range, a fair reflection of solid but decelerating growth and the new capex uncertainty.
Note on price data: this quarter's period-end date (September 30, 2024) falls just before Indosat's 1-for-4 stock split took effect (October 14, 2024), so the same split-adjustment convention used throughout this site's 2023-2024 ISAT coverage still applies. Indosat's shares closed at a split-adjusted Rp2,737.50 on September 30, 2024 on a historical price basis; multiplying by 4 recovers the pre-split nominal price actually quoted on the exchange that day.
| Market cap → enterprise value | 9M 2024 (period-end) |
|---|---|
| Share price (period-end, nominal, pre-split) | Rp10,950 |
| Shares outstanding (pre-split) | 8,062,702,739 |
| Market capitalization | ~Rp88,286.6B (~$5,831.5M) |
| Plus: total principal debt (loans, bonds, sukuk; excl. lease liabilities) | Rp13,694.0B |
| Less: cash and cash equivalents | Rp4,007.5B |
| Enterprise value | ~Rp97,973.1B (~$6,470.2M) |
| Peer/multiple sanity check | 9M 2024 (annualized) | H1 2024 (annualized) |
|---|---|---|
| EBITDA (annualized) | Rp26,666.7B | Rp26,824.0B |
| EV / EBITDA | ~3.67x | ~3.56x |
| Net debt (total debt - cash) | Rp9,686.5B | Rp9,343.6B |
| Net debt / EBITDA | ~0.36x | ~0.35x |
| P/E (annualized, reported EPS) | ~17.1x | ~15.8x |
| Scenario | Key assumption | Multiple | Implied EV | Implied nominal price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Current (9M 2024 close) | actual market price | ~3.67x annualized EBITDA | ~Rp97,973B | Rp10,950 |
| Bear | Capex growth continues outrunning cash flow and pressures the balance sheet | ~3.0x | ~Rp80,000B | ~Rp9,146 |
| Base | Growth holds near this period's pace, capex step-up proves temporary | ~3.7x | ~Rp98,667B | ~Rp11,036 |
| Bull | AI-strategy capex converts into MIDI/enterprise growth that justifies a re-rating | ~4.75x | ~Rp126,667B | ~Rp14,838 |
Net debt/EBITDA held roughly flat at ~0.36x, matching the company's own disclosed 0.37x closely - leverage itself isn't yet showing stress from the capex step-up, but the FCF decline is the number to watch into FY2024's close. No multi-year DCF yet: this site would want to see whether FY2024's full-year FCF confirms the capex acceleration as temporary or structural before building a standalone projection.
PT Indosat Tbk's unaudited interim consolidated financial statements for the nine-month period ended September 30, 2024, together with the accompanying notes, and the company's 9M 2024 investor presentation.