Q4 2023 · IDX · Apr 2, 2024

ISAT FY2023 Finally Reveals Which Data-Center Entity Was Behind Indosat's Mystery 2022 Gains - SMT

Indosat's FY2023 revenue grew 9.6% to Rp51,228.8 billion and EBITDA grew 23.0% to Rp23,938.0 billion, while net income attributable to owners fell a real (not one-off-distorted) 4.6% to Rp4,506.4 billion as FY2022's larger deconsolidation gains didn't repeat. The subscriber base shrank 3.4% to 98.8 million while blended ARPU rose 5.3% - the first quarter this site has been able to report either figure. A December sale-leaseback finally confirms what "SMT" actually is: a 25%-owned data-center joint venture, the same entity behind the unnamed "loss of control" gain this site has flagged since FY2021.

A Clean Year, and a Two-Year-Old Mystery Finally Closes

FY2023 is the first full year this site has covered where the headline profit decline isn't mostly a one-off comparison-base artifact: revenue grew 9.6% to Rp51,228.8 billion, EBITDA grew 23.0% to Rp23,938.0 billion, but net income attributable to owners fell a genuine 4.6% to Rp4,506.4 billion - because FY2022's Rp4,582.2 billion combination of one-off gains (the SMT/IMM deconsolidation gain plus a step-acquisition remeasurement gain) was simply larger than FY2023's Rp1,342.5 billion in sale-leaseback gains. Strip both years' one-offs out and adjusted operating profit actually grew a real 51.2% YoY (Rp9,085.2 billion vs. Rp6,008.6 billion) - the underlying business kept improving all year, it just had less one-off help doing it this time.

The year's most interesting single disclosure closes a thread this site has carried since FY2022's coverage first surfaced the name "SMT" without explaining what it does. Note 19 now reveals: on December 18, 2023, Indosat sold its data-center assets to PT Starone Mitra Telekomunikasi ("SMT") for Rp2,625.0 billion (Rp2,340.0 billion cash plus Rp285.0 billion deferred), leasing them back for 14 years and booking a Rp620.1 billion net gain - and Note 9's associates table confirms SMT is a 25%-owned Indosat associate whose "principal activity" is literally "data center rental." SMT isn't a mysterious outside party; it's Indosat's own data-center joint venture vehicle, and the FY2022 "loss of control" gain and this year's sale-leaseback gain are two chapters of the same corporate-restructuring story: Indosat progressively moving its data-center infrastructure into a jointly-owned entity and leasing it back.

The Prescription

Indosat should name SMT explicitly the first time it appears in a filing, not two years and two transactions later - this site had to wait through FY2021's unnamed gain, H1 2022's second unnamed gain, FY2022's partial naming, and now FY2023's data-center sale-leaseback to finally understand what SMT actually is. What it should keep doing: continuing to report clean, itemized subscriber and ARPU figures the way FY2023's info memo finally does - this is the first period this site has been able to cite an actual subscriber count and blended ARPU for Indosat, and it should stay a standing disclosure every quarter, not just the annual filing.

Key Financial Metrics

FY2023 (year ended December 31, 2023) vs FY2022 (restated), consolidated

FX: Rp15,397 = US$1 (December 29, 2023) - period-end market quote, used only to convert the USD columns. FY2022 comparatives in this filing are restated (Note 35) to finalize purchase-price-allocation measurement-period adjustments for a small prior step acquisition ("APE") - a roughly Rp223 billion total-asset adjustment, immaterial to the headline figures below.

Metric FY2023 (Rp) FY2023 (US$) FY2022 (Rp, restated) YoY (Rp) YoY (US$)
Revenue Rp51,228.8B ~$3,327.4M Rp46,752.3B ✅ +9.6%
EBITDA» (company-disclosed, excl. ROU assets under PSAK 73) Rp23,938.0B ~$1,554.6M Rp19,468.7B ✅ +23.0%
Operating Income» (both years include one-off items) Rp10,427.7B ~$677.3M Rp10,590.8B ⚠️ -1.5% (mismatched one-offs) ⚠️
...Operating Income, excluding each year's one-off gains Rp9,085.2B ~$590.1M Rp6,008.6B ✅ +51.2%
Net Income (attributable to owners) Rp4,506.4B ~$292.7M Rp4,723.4B ⚠️ -4.6% ⚠️
...of which, consolidated total (incl. non-controlling interests») Rp4,775.7B ~$310.1M Rp5,370.2B ⚠️ -11.1% ⚠️
Free Cash Flow» (operating cash flow - capex, excl. ROU) Rp4,897.1B ~$318.1M Rp5,247.8B ⚠️ -6.7% ⚠️
Total Cash Rp5,189.6B ~$337.1M Rp9,507.9B ⚠️ -45.4% ⚠️

Total debt (loans + bonds, excl. lease liabilities) fell to Rp14,803.0 billion from FY2022's restated Rp21,323.3 billion (-30.6% YoY), continuing the deleveraging trend this site tracked through Q1, H1, and 9M 2023 - Q4 alone added only a small further reduction from 9M's Rp14,959.8 billion, consistent with the pace-stall 9M's coverage flagged. Net debt closed the year at Rp9,613.4 billion, and net debt/EBITDA improved to 0.40x from 0.61x - genuinely strong leverage metrics even with cash itself down sharply, since capex (Rp12,783.4 billion, excl. ROU) roughly doubled its full-year pace in the second half.

FY2023's 4.6% profit decline is a real, if modest, YoY drop - unlike every prior post-merger period this site has covered, it isn't mostly a mismatched one-off comparison. Adjusted for both years' one-offs, operating profit grew a genuine 51.2%. See Beyond the Usual below for what "SMT" actually is.

Key Operational Metrics

FY2023 vs FY2022 - the first period this site can report actual subscriber/ARPU figures for Indosat

Metric FY2023 FY2022 YoY
Total subscribers 98.8 million 102.2 million ⚠️ -3.4%
...Postpaid 1.6 million 1.6 million ⚠️ -0.8%
...Prepaid 97.2 million 100.6 million ⚠️ -3.4%
Blended ARPU Rp35,600 Rp33,900 ✅ +5.3%
Postpaid ARPU Rp74,400 Rp68,200 ✅ +9.1%
Prepaid ARPU Rp35,000 Rp33,300 ✅ +5.2%
4G BTS count 179,070 137,037 ✅ +30.7%
5G BTS count 90 90 flat
Data traffic (petabytes) 14,417 12,561 ✅ +14.8%

The subscriber decline and ARPU increase are the same deliberate trade-off Q1 2023's coverage first flagged when Indosat raised its minimum SIM card price in January 2023: the company chose fewer, higher-value subscribers over base growth, and the full year's numbers confirm the trade-off worked as intended - EBITDA margin expanded to 46.7% from 41.6%, a 5.1 percentage point gain, even as the customer count shrank.

Segment Comparison

Segment Revenue FY2023 Revenue FY2022 YoY Share of Revenue
Cellular Rp43,749.9B Rp40,242.8B ✅ +8.7% 85.4%
MIDI (enterprise/data/internet) Rp6,472.9B Rp5,725.9B ✅ +13.0% 12.6%
Fixed Telecommunications Rp1,006.0B Rp783.6B ✅ +28.4% 2.0%
Total Rp51,228.8B Rp46,752.3B ✅ +9.6% 100%

Cellular

Grew 8.7% for the year, driven by data, value-added services, and interconnection revenue offsetting a continued decline in voice - roughly in line with total revenue growth and holding its 85%+ share of the business.

MIDI

Grew 13.0% for the full year, a reacceleration from the 5.7% pace FY2022's coverage flagged as a slowdown, driven by IT Services, Fixed Internet, and FTTH revenue offsetting a decline in Fixed Connectivity - the segment genuinely picked back up this year.

Fixed Telecommunications

Grew 28.4% for the full year, driven by international call revenue - still under 2% of total revenue, but its ninth consecutive period of growth this site has tracked since H1 2021's turnaround.

Beyond the Usual

SMT Is Finally Named and Explained: A 25%-Owned Data-Center Joint Venture, Not a Mystery Third Party

Note 9's associates table discloses PT Starone Mitra Telekomunikasi ("SMT") as a 25%-owned Indosat associate whose principal activity is "data center rental." Combined with Note 19's disclosure that Indosat sold its data-center assets to SMT on December 18, 2023 for Rp2,625.0 billion (leasing them back for 14 years, booking a Rp620.1 billion net gain), this closes a thread this site has carried across three prior posts - FY2021, H1 2022, and FY2022, where SMT appeared only as an unexplained counterparty behind large one-off gains. The pattern across all these transactions is now clear: a deliberate, multi-year program of moving infrastructure (towers, data centers) into jointly-owned entities and leasing it back, not a series of unrelated one-off events.

The FY2022 Comparative Figures in This Filing Were Quietly Restated

Note 35 discloses that FY2022's balance sheet was restated to finalize the purchase-price allocation for a prior step acquisition (an entity referred to as "APE"), moving roughly Rp223 billion of total assets and reducing non-controlling interests by Rp246.4 billion - a routine measurement-period true-up under PSAK 22, not a correction of an error, but worth flagging since it means FY2022's total-debt and total-asset figures in this post differ slightly (well under 1%) from the figures FY2022's own post originally reported before the restatement.

The same Rp1,358.6 billion provision this site has tracked since FY2018 and detailed fully in Q1 2023's coverage remains exactly Rp1,358.6 billion at FY2023's close - management continues to state no further provision is required under PSAK 57, with IMM itself having been deregistered in February 2023.

A New Fiber Partnership With MNC Play Extends the Home-Internet Push

Indosat's Q4 2023 announcement of a collaboration with Asianet and PT MNC Kabel Mediacom ("MNC Play") - acquiring MNC Play's fiber-based customer base - is a genuine new-business-line development worth tracking forward, extending Indosat's home-internet ambitions beyond the BDx Indonesia data-center joint venture this site has covered in prior posts.

Target Valuation Range

Bottom line: roughly Rp7,400-Rp12,200 fair-value range (bear-to-bull, EV/EBITDA-based) against a Rp9,375 actual nominal close - the stock traded almost exactly at this site's implied base case, reflecting a market that's pricing in the real, non-one-off-driven leverage and margin improvement this year delivered.

Indosat's own FY2023 press release discloses its period-end closing price directly: Rp9,375, with a market capitalization of Rp75.6 trillion - this cross-checks exactly against a split-adjusted historical close of Rp2,343.75 for December 29, 2023, multiplied by 4 to restate it in pre-split nominal terms (Indosat's 1-for-4 stock split took effect October 14, 2024), the same methodology used in Q1, H1, and 9M 2023's posts.

Market cap → enterprise value FY2023 (period-end)
Share price (period-end, nominal) Rp9,375
Shares outstanding (pre-split) 8,062,702,739
Market capitalization ~Rp75,587.8B (~$4,909.1M)
Plus: total principal debt (loans, bonds; excl. lease liabilities) Rp14,803.0B
Less: cash and cash equivalents Rp5,189.6B
Enterprise value ~Rp85,201.2B (~$5,533.9M)
Peer/multiple sanity check FY2023 FY2022 (restated)
EBITDA (company-disclosed) Rp23,938.0B Rp19,468.7B
EV / EBITDA ~3.56x not directly comparable (pre-restatement figure used in FY2022's own post was Rp19,796.6B adjusted)
Net debt (total debt - cash) Rp9,613.4B ~Rp11,815.4B
Net debt / EBITDA ~0.40x ~0.61x
P/E (reported EPS) ~16.8x not meaningful (one-off distorted)
Scenario Key assumption Multiple Implied EV Implied nominal price
Current (FY2023 close) actual market price ~3.56x EBITDA ~Rp85,201B Rp9,375
Bear Capex step-up compresses free cash flow and deleveraging fully stalls ~2.9x ~Rp69,420B ~Rp7,418
Base Margin and leverage gains hold through FY2024, growth continues at a similar pace ~3.6x ~Rp86,177B ~Rp9,498
Bull Subscriber-value trade-off keeps paying off and deleveraging resumes at Q1-H1 2023's pace ~4.5x ~Rp107,721B ~Rp12,167

Net debt/EBITDA closed the year at 0.40x, matching the company's own disclosed figure closely and confirming FY2023 as the strongest balance-sheet position this site has tracked for Indosat since the merger. No multi-year DCF yet: this is the cleanest, least one-off-distorted full year of data this site has covered for the merged entity, and with FY2024 quarters still to be backfilled, this would be a reasonable point to start building one - but that's better done once a full FY2024 comparison year is also in hand.


PT Indosat Tbk's Full Year 2023 Results investor announcement (dated February 7, 2024), and the company's FY2023 Annual Report, including the audited consolidated financial statements for the year ended December 31, 2023 and accompanying notes.