The Same Comparison-Base Story, One Quarter Further Along
9M 2023 extends the pattern H1 2023's coverage already flagged: revenue grew a solid 8.5% YoY to Rp37,462.4 billion, and once each year's one-off items are stripped out, adjusted operating income grew a real 46.6% YoY (Rp6,344.4 billion vs. Rp4,327.3 billion) - but the reported operating-income line actually fell 10.5%, and reported net income attributable to owners fell 24.4% to Rp2,787.1 billion, because 9M 2022 still carries the full Rp3,488.4 billion SMT/IMM deconsolidation gain (recognized in Q2 2022) against 9M 2023's smaller Rp722.4 billion tower sale-leaseback gain (recognized in Q1 2023, unchanged since). The company's own normalized net profit figure - which strips both out - tells the real story: Rp2,215 billion, up 254.8% YoY from 9M 2022's normalized Rp624 billion, on the company's own normalized EBITDA of Rp17,490 billion (+21.7% YoY).
The one genuinely new development this quarter is on the balance sheet, and it's a slowdown rather than an acceleration: total debt fell to Rp14,959.8 billion, down just 0.75% from H1 2023's Rp15,073.0 billion - a sharp deceleration from Q1's 12.6% and H1's further 19.0% quarterly declines. Cash flow was still strong (9M operating cash flow of Rp14,612.2 billion, +9.0% YoY), but capex roughly doubled quarter-over-quarter as the company stepped up network investment, leaving less free cash flow available for further debt paydown this quarter.
The Prescription
Indosat should clarify explicitly whether Q1-H1 2023's rapid debt reduction was itself a one-off event (using tower-sale proceeds opportunistically) or the start of a genuine deleveraging program with a target ratio - this quarter's near-flat debt level makes that distinction matter more than it did in the prior two quarters, when the trend looked unambiguous. What it should keep doing: normalized EBITDA/profit disclosure with a clear one-off appendix, which the investor presentation continues to do well and which this site has now been able to lean on for three straight quarters.
Key Financial Metrics
9M 2023 (nine months ended September 30, 2023) vs 9M 2022, consolidated
FX: Rp15,225 = US$1 (September 30, 2023) - period-end market quote, used only to convert the USD columns.
| Metric | 9M 2023 (Rp) | 9M 2023 (US$) | 9M 2022 (Rp) | YoY (Rp) | YoY (US$) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | Rp37,462.4B | ~$2,460.8M | Rp34,530.8B | ✅ +8.5% | ✅ |
| EBITDA» (company-disclosed, normalized basis) | Rp17,490.0B | ~$1,148.9M | Rp14,366.0B | ✅ +21.7% | ✅ |
| Operating Income» (pre-financing subtotal; both years include one-off items) | Rp7,066.8B | ~$464.2M | Rp7,899.9B | ⚠️ -10.5% (mismatched one-offs) | ⚠️ |
| ...Operating Income, excluding each year's one-off gain | Rp6,344.4B | ~$416.7M | Rp4,327.3B | ✅ +46.6% | ✅ |
| Net Income (attributable to owners, reported) | Rp2,787.1B | ~$183.1M | Rp3,687.6B | ⚠️ -24.4% (mismatched one-offs) | ⚠️ |
| ...Net Income, company's own normalized figure | ~Rp2,215B | ~$145.5M | ~Rp624B | ✅ +254.8% | ✅ |
| ...of which, consolidated total (incl. non-controlling interests») | Rp2,986.0B | ~$196.1M | Rp4,041.9B | ⚠️ -26.1% | ⚠️ |
| Free Cash Flow» (operating cash flow - capex) | Rp6,895.0B | ~$452.8M | Rp5,209.8B | ✅ +32.4% | ✅ |
| Total Cash | Rp6,803.0B | ~$446.8M | Rp3,850.7B | ✅ +76.7% | ✅ |
Total debt was essentially flat quarter-over-quarter at Rp14,959.8 billion (vs. H1 2023's Rp15,073.0 billion, -0.75%), still down 29.7% from FY2022's Rp21,294.3 billion but no longer falling at the double-digit quarterly pace Q1 and H1 2023 each showed - capex nearly doubled to Rp7,717.2 billion for the nine months (from Rp7,496.0 billion PP&E alone in Q1-H1 combined), redirecting cash toward network investment instead of further paydown.
9M 2023's headline 24.4% profit decline is the same comparison-base story flagged all year - once one-offs are stripped out, adjusted operating income grew a real 46.6% and normalized net profit grew 254.8%. The genuinely new signal this quarter is that debt paydown, which fell nearly 30% over Q1-H1, stalled completely as capex spending stepped up. See Beyond the Usual below.
Key Operational Metrics
9M 2023's located source documents don't include a numeric subscriber count or blended ARPU table in text-extractable form - not available; the presentation's normalized-EBITDA-margin figure (46.7% for 9M 2023 vs. 41.6% for 9M 2022, +5.1 percentage points) is the only operational-adjacent metric disclosed in extractable text this quarter.
Segment Comparison
| Segment | Revenue 9M 2023 | Revenue 9M 2022 | YoY | Share of Revenue |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Selular (cellular) | Rp32,173.4B | Rp29,842.9B | ✅ +7.8% | 85.9% |
| MIDI (enterprise/data/internet) | Rp4,538.4B | Rp4,095.9B | ✅ +10.8% | 12.1% |
| Telekomunikasi Tetap (fixed) | Rp750.6B | Rp592.0B | ✅ +26.8% | 2.0% |
| Total | Rp37,462.4B | Rp34,530.8B | ✅ +8.5% | 100% |
Selular
Grew 7.8%, its slowest YoY pace of the three quarters covered so far this year (9.4% in Q1, 8.4% cumulative through H1) - a gradual deceleration worth watching, though still tracking close to total revenue growth.
MIDI
Grew 10.8% cumulatively, a step down from H1's cumulative 15.7% pace, implying a materially slower Q3 alone - the reacceleration flagged as a trend in H1's coverage looks less certain one quarter later.
Telekomunikasi Tetap
Grew 26.8%, continuing to be the fastest-growing segment for an eighth straight period this site has tracked, even as it remains just 2.0% of total revenue.
Beyond the Usual
The Company Switched Its Headline EBITDA Disclosure From Raw to Normalized Without Flagging the Change
Q1 and H1 2023's investor presentations both disclosed raw, unadjusted EBITDA figures (Rp5,329 billion and Rp11,383 billion respectively) alongside separately labeled normalized net-profit figures. This quarter's presentation instead marks its headline EBITDA figure itself with an asterisk for "normalized" (Rp17,490 billion for 9M 2023), with one-off items detailed only in an appendix. The two conventions aren't necessarily inconsistent - a normalized EBITDA and a raw EBITDA converge when there's little difference between operating-line one-offs and EBITDA-line one-offs - but a reader comparing this quarter's headline number against Q1/H1's headline numbers without checking the fine print could easily be comparing two different measures without realizing it.
The Deleveraging Pace That Defined the First Two Quarters of 2023 Essentially Stopped
After falling 12.6% in Q1 and a further 19.0% in Q2 (down 29.2% cumulatively from FY2022's close), total debt fell only 0.75% this quarter. This coincides with capex roughly doubling in Q3 alone - Indosat appears to have redirected cash generation from debt paydown toward network investment once the initial tower-sale-funded reduction ran its course, rather than continuing to delever at the same rate. Not itself a red flag, but a clear inflection worth tracking into FY2023's year-end close: whether debt resumes falling, stays flat, or starts rising again as capex continues.
Target Valuation Range
Bottom line: roughly Rp71,600-Rp106,700 fair-value enterprise range (bear-to-bull, annualized EV/EBITDA-based, implying roughly Rp8,100-Rp12,450 nominal per share) against a Rp9,825 actual nominal close - the stock traded in the upper-middle of that range, reflecting the market pricing in the real normalized-profit growth even as reported earnings looked weak.
Note on price data: Indosat's shares closed at a split-adjusted Rp2,456.25 on September 29, 2023 (the last trading day at or before September 30) on a historical price basis - Indosat completed a 1-for-4 forward stock split in October 2024, so that historical close is stated on a post-split basis. Multiplying by 4 recovers the actual nominal price quoted on the exchange that day, the same convention used in Q1 and H1 2023's posts.
| Market cap → enterprise value | 9M 2023 (period-end) |
|---|---|
| Share price (period-end, nominal) | Rp9,825 |
| Shares outstanding (pre-split) | 8,062,702,739 |
| Market capitalization | ~Rp79,216.1B (~$5,203.4M) |
| Plus: total principal debt (loans, bonds, sukuk; excl. lease liabilities) | Rp14,959.8B |
| Less: cash and cash equivalents | Rp6,803.0B |
| Enterprise value | ~Rp87,372.9B (~$5,738.0M) |
| Peer/multiple sanity check | 9M 2023 (annualized) | FY2022 (adjusted) |
|---|---|---|
| EBITDA (annualized, normalized basis) | Rp23,320.0B | Rp19,796.6B |
| EV / EBITDA | ~3.75x | ~3.11x |
| Net debt (total debt - cash) | Rp8,156.8B | Rp11,786.4B |
| Net debt / EBITDA | ~0.35x | ~0.60x |
| P/E (annualized, reported EPS) | ~21.3x | not meaningful |
| P/E (annualized, normalized EPS) | ~26.8x | not meaningful |
| Scenario | Key assumption | Multiple | Implied EV | Implied nominal price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Current (9M 2023 close) | actual market price | ~3.75x annualized EBITDA | ~Rp87,373B | Rp9,825 |
| Bear | Debt paydown stays stalled and capex growth compresses free cash flow further | ~3.0x | ~Rp69,960B | ~Rp8,102 |
| Base | Normalized profit growth continues near this quarter's pace, leverage holds roughly flat | ~3.75x | ~Rp87,450B | ~Rp9,835 |
| Bull | Deleveraging resumes and normalized profit growth accelerates into FY2023's close | ~4.5x | ~Rp104,940B | ~Rp12,451 |
Net debt/EBITDA improved further to ~0.35x from FY2022's ~0.60x, close to the company's own disclosed 0.36x. Still no multi-year DCF: three quarters of one-off-adjusted, normalized data is a meaningfully better base than earlier in the year, but this site would want to see how the debt-paydown pause resolves at FY2023's year-end close before building a standalone multi-year projection.
PT Indosat Tbk's unaudited interim consolidated financial statements for the nine-month period ended September 30, 2023, together with the accompanying notes, and the company's 9M 2023 investor presentation.