The Volatile Line This Dataset Has Now Tracked Through Three Wild Swings
Net income attributable to owners fell 49.1% YoY to Rp3,271 billion this quarter - by far the sharpest decline this backfill has recorded. The cause, once again, is the line flagged in Q1's post and revisited in Q2's: Telkomsel's GoTo stake, marked to market every quarter. After swinging from -Rp893 billion (Q1) to +Rp1,187 billion (Q2), this quarter's swing was -Rp3,378 billion - by far the largest of the three, tracking GoTo's own newly-listed shares falling sharply through Q3 2022 (see Beyond the Usual).
Adjusting for the GoTo line, operating profit was roughly Rp12,015 billion this quarter versus Rp12,686 billion reported a year earlier - still down modestly (about 5%), but nowhere near the 31.9% decline the reported operating-profit number shows. The telecom business itself kept generating real, if unspectacular, growth: revenue grew 0.9% to Rp36,891 billion, and the Enterprise segment posted its third straight profitable-or-near-profitable quarter (Rp180 billion, 3.6% margin), continuing the run that started in Q1 2022.
The Prescription
Telkom should now formally reconsider whether holding a large, publicly-traded, FVTPL-classified stake in a single volatile stock is the right structure for a core operating subsidiary's balance sheet, now that three consecutive quarters have shown swings of Rp900 billion to Rp3,400 billion flowing straight through operating profit. This isn't a disclosure problem anymore - Telkom has disclosed it clearly every quarter - it's a genuine question about whether the current accounting treatment is making Telkomsel's own operating results needlessly volatile and harder for the market to price the core telecom business against.
Telkom should also start highlighting Enterprise's three-quarter run explicitly in its own earnings materials, now that the pattern (breakeven in Q1, a real profit in Q2, and another this quarter) looks like the first genuinely sustained improvement this dataset has tracked since it started following the segment in Q1 2020. A segment with this history of unexplained volatility earning three consecutive quarters of credibility deserves to be named as a turnaround, not left to a reader piecing four separate posts together.
Key Financial Metrics
Q3 2022 (three months ended Sep 30, 2022) vs Q3 2021, consolidated - discrete-quarter figures derived by subtracting H1 from each year's nine-month cumulative filing
FX: approximately Rp15,175 = US$1 (Sep 30, 2022) and Rp14,329 = US$1 (Sep 30, 2021) - quoted market rates for each date, used only to convert the USD columns below; the weaker Rupiah at this quarter-end amplifies the USD-denominated YoY declines below relative to the Rupiah figures.
| Metric | Q3 2022 (Rp) | Q3 2022 (US$) | Q3 2021 (Rp) | YoY (Rp) | YoY (US$) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | Rp36,891B | ~$2,431.0M | Rp36,563B | ➖ +0.9% | ⚠️ -4.7% |
| Adjusted EBITDA» | Rp16,669B | ~$1,098.5M | Rp20,171B | 🔴 -17.4% | 🔴 -22.0% |
| Operating Income» | Rp8,637B | ~$569.2M | Rp12,686B | 🔴 -31.9% | 🔴 -35.7% |
| Net Income (attributable to owners) | Rp3,271B | ~$215.6M | Rp6,421B | 🔴 -49.1% | 🔴 -51.9% |
| Free Cash Flow» (OCF - capex) | Rp8,561B | ~$564.2M | Rp10,478B | ⚠️ -18.3% | ⚠️ -22.8% |
| Total Cash | Rp31,657B | ~$2,086.3M | Rp17,491B | ✅ +81.0% | ✅ +70.9% |
Every reported profitability metric fell sharply, but as the opening section shows, the GoTo mark-to-market swing (-Rp3,378 billion this quarter alone) explains the overwhelming majority of the Adjusted EBITDA and operating-income declines - both metrics are computed directly from the reported P&L, which includes this line. Free cash flow fell more modestly (-18.3%), reflecting that FCF is driven by cash operating performance and capex, not the non-cash GoTo mark. Cash grew sharply YoY, largely reflecting the smaller FY2020-cycle dividend base by this point in the calendar versus the unusually large payout that hit Q3 2021's cash position (see that post).
Reported profit fell nearly 50%, but the actual telecom business kept growing - a single volatile mark-to-market line on Telkomsel's GoTo stake explains almost the entire headline decline for a third straight quarter running. See Target Valuation Range for what the market is pricing in.
Key Operational Metrics
- IndiHome subscribers: 9.0 million, up 438,000 net additions across 9M22, with revenue up 6.4% YoY on relatively stable ARPU - growth continuing at a similar pace to Q1's and Q2's
- Capital expenditure (discrete quarter, derived): Rp7,361 billion, down from Q2's Rp9,184 billion
- Mobile subscriber count: not separately disclosed in this quarter's presentation
Segment Comparison
Q3 2022 vs Q3 2021, discrete-quarter figures derived by subtraction from cumulative filings
| Segment | External Revenue Q3'22 | External Revenue Q3'21 | YoY | Segment Result Q3'22 | Margin Q3'22 | Margin Q3'21 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mobile | Rp21,668B | Rp21,180B | ➖ +2.3% | Rp7,612B | ⚠️ 35.1% | 34.5% |
| Consumer (IndiHome) | Rp6,605B | Rp6,431B | ➖ +2.7% | Rp2,895B | ✅ 43.8% | 34.9% |
| Enterprise | Rp4,997B | Rp5,142B | ➖ -2.8% | ✅ Rp180B | ⚠️ 3.6% | 11.2% |
| WIB | Rp3,402B | Rp3,605B | ⚠️ -5.6% | Rp1,865B | ⚠️ 54.8% | 66.0% |
| Others | Rp65B | Rp108B | ⚠️ -39.8% | -Rp233B | n/m | n/m |
| Total segment | Rp36,737B | Rp36,466B | ➖ +0.7% | Rp12,319B | 33.5% | 34.4% |
Consumer's margin recovery (18.0% in Q2 to 43.8% this quarter, both discrete-quarter figures) is the sharpest positive reversal in this entire dataset - confirming Q2's post was right to flag that quarter's collapse as worth watching rather than declaring it a structural break. Enterprise's margin narrowed from Q2's 5.5% but stayed positive for a third straight quarter.
Mobile
Revenue grew a modest 2.3% with margin essentially stable (34.5% to 35.1%) - the calmest quarter for Mobile in this dataset after the volatility of Q1's compression and Q2's recovery.
Consumer (IndiHome)
A full margin recovery to 43.8%, the segment's best margin in this dataset's history, confirming Q2's collapse (see that post) was not the start of a structural decline.
Enterprise
Third consecutive profitable-or-near-profitable quarter (see The Prescription) - the first genuinely sustained improvement this dataset has tracked for this segment since coverage began in Q1 2020.
WIB (Wholesale and International Business)
Revenue fell modestly (-5.6%) with margin compressing to 54.8% from 66.0% - the segment's weakest relative quarter in this dataset, worth watching in Q4/FY2022's post.
Beyond the Usual
GoTo's Stock Fell Sharply This Quarter, and Telkomsel's Stake Took a Rp3.4 Trillion Mark-to-Market Hit
Continuing the thread from Q1's and Q2's posts, the 9M22 cumulative unrealized fair-value line reads -Rp3,084 billion, against H1 2022's +Rp294 billion - implying a roughly -Rp3,378 billion swing in Q3 alone, by far the largest single-quarter move across the three quarters this dataset has now tracked. GoTo's own shares traded well below their April 2022 IPO offering price through much of Q3 2022, and Telkomsel's FVTPL-classified stake mechanically follows that market price every quarter-end. This is now a genuinely three-for-three pattern of large, opposite-direction swings (-Rp893bn, +Rp1,187bn, -Rp3,378bn) - the position's volatility, not its direction, is the real story for a reader trying to model Telkom's forward operating profit.
Telkomsel and the Parent Company Repaid Debt Rather Than Drawing New Facilities This Quarter
Unlike most prior quarters in this dataset, the subsequent-events note discloses only repayments (Rp500 billion to HSBC by the Company, Rp1,500 billion combined to BSI and BNI by Telkomsel) with no new drawdowns disclosed - a genuine change from the draw-and-repay churn pattern flagged consistently since Q2 2020, consistent with this quarter's strong cash position (see Key Financial Metrics).
Target Valuation Range
Bottom line: roughly Rp3,220-Rp5,590 fair-value range (bear-to-bull, TTM EV/EBITDA-based) against a Rp4,460 actual close - the stock sits near the bull case, suggesting the market is genuinely looking through the GoTo-driven earnings volatility to the underlying telecom business's steady growth.
Telkom's shares closed Q3 2022 at Rp4,460, up 11.5% from Q2's Rp4,000 close (see that post) - a real recovery despite the quarter's sharply lower reported profit, strong evidence the market is pricing the GoTo mark as the non-operating item this dataset has argued it is since Q1's post. Over the trailing 2 years (October 2020 through September 2022), the stock moved from a Rp2,620 close to Rp4,460, a 70.2% net gain - the strongest 2-year trailing return in this entire dataset.
| Market cap → enterprise value | Q3 2022 (period-end) |
|---|---|
| Share price (period-end) | Rp4,460 |
| Shares outstanding | 99,062,216,600 |
| Market capitalization | ~Rp441,817 billion (~$29.1 billion) |
| Plus: total debt | Rp49,853 billion |
| Less: cash | Rp31,657 billion |
| Enterprise value | ~Rp460,013 billion |
| Peer-multiple sanity check | Q2 2022 | Q3 2022 (TTM) | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| TTM EPS | Rp258.61 | Rp226.81 | ⚠️ down |
| P/E | ~15.5x | ~19.7x | ⚠️ up |
| Book value per share (owners) | ~Rp1,213.8 | ~Rp1,247.4 | ✅ up |
| P/B | ~3.30x | ~3.58x | ⚠️ up |
| TTM Adjusted EBITDA | Rp80,988B | Rp77,486B | ⚠️ down |
| EV/EBITDA (TTM) | ~5.2x | ~5.9x | ⚠️ up |
Every multiple rose even as TTM earnings and EBITDA fell - a genuine re-rating, and one that only makes sense if the market is discounting the GoTo-driven earnings decline as non-recurring rather than pricing it at face value. Applying the same mature-telecom EV/EBITDA range used throughout this dataset:
| Scenario | Key assumption | Multiple | Implied EV | Implied price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Current (Q3 2022 close) | actual market price, for reference | ~5.9x TTM Adjusted EBITDA | ~Rp460,013 billion | Rp4,460 |
| Bear | GoTo's continued volatility keeps pressuring reported earnings and the market eventually re-prices the risk, compressing the multiple | ~4.5x | ~Rp348,687 billion | ~Rp3,223 |
| Base | Multiple holds near current levels as the market continues looking through GoTo's swings to Enterprise's genuine three-quarter turnaround and Consumer's margin recovery | ~5.9x | ~Rp457,167 billion | ~Rp4,431 |
| Bull | Enterprise's turnaround and Consumer's recovery are both confirmed durable in Q4/FY2022's results, re-rating the multiple toward the top of the historical range | ~7.5x | ~Rp581,145 billion | ~Rp5,592 |
The current close sits almost exactly on the base case - a market that has already done the work of separating GoTo's non-operating volatility from the underlying telecom business's real, if unspectacular, improvement.
Perusahaan Perseroan (Persero) PT Telekomunikasi Indonesia Tbk's unaudited consolidated financial statements as of and for the nine months ended September 30, 2022 (with the six-month filing used to derive discrete third-quarter figures), plus the Company's 3Q22 corporate presentation.