A Recovering Stock, a Softening Business, and a Major Restructuring Plan Taking Shape
The stock did something it hasn't done in five straight quarters this dataset has tracked: it recovered. Telkom's shares closed Q2 2025 at Rp2,780, up 15.4% from Q1's record-low Rp2,410 close (see that post) - the first quarterly gain since Q3 2023. The operating numbers, though, kept softening: net income attributable to owners fell 11.1% quarter-over-quarter to Rp5,165 billion, and Telkomsel's own materials disclose mobile ARPU falling 7.4% YoY to Rp42 thousand - worse than Q1's 6.5% decline (see that post), now a clearly established multi-quarter trend rather than a one-off.
Mobile segment margin compressed sharply this quarter - to 25.2% from 32.9% a year earlier - the segment absorbing the ARPU pressure directly, even as Consumer's margin improved to 39.4% and Enterprise turned a genuine profit (10.6% margin, its best since Q3 2023's record). Management's own framing acknowledges the softness directly: this quarter's presentation is titled around "resilience amidst ongoing soft macro" and explicitly lists rebuilding "Mobile Momentum" as a strategic priority, alongside broadband growth initiatives - the most candid acknowledgment of competitive/macro pressure this dataset has seen from Telkom's own materials.
The more consequential disclosure this quarter is strategic, not operational: Telkom's presentation reveals, for the first time in this dataset's coverage, a plan to spin off roughly Rp150 trillion of fiber infrastructure assets (estimated net book value ~Rp90 trillion) into a dedicated entity called PT Telkom Infrastruktur Indonesia ("TIF," internally branded "Infranexia" or "FiberCo"), with the first phase targeted for completion in Q4 2025 (see Beyond the Usual). This is the seed of what later filings in this dataset's coverage describe as a major, and eventually tax-contested, restructuring.
The Prescription
Telkom should give investors a clear timeline and value-creation rationale for the FiberCo/TIF spin-off well ahead of its Q4 2025 execution - a Rp150 trillion asset unlock is one of the largest strategic moves in this dataset's entire TLKM coverage, and a single slide buried in an investor deck under "progress to date" undersells its significance. Separately, management's own "Rebuilding Mobile Momentum" framing should come with specific, measurable targets (ARPU stabilization timeline, product-simplification milestones) in the next quarter's materials - naming the problem is a good start, but investors need to see whether the stated initiatives (product simplification, quota rationalization, network quality investment) are actually working.
Key Financial Metrics
Q2 2025 (three months ended Jun 30, 2025) vs Q2 2024, consolidated
FX: approximately Rp16,325 = US$1 (Jun 30, 2025 market rate), used only to convert the USD columns below.
| Metric | Q2 2025 (Rp) | Q2 2025 (US$) | Q2 2024 (Rp) | YoY (Rp) | YoY (US$) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | Rp36,365B | ~$2,227.7M | Rp37,863B | ⚠️ -4.0% | ⚠️ -4.0% |
| Adjusted EBITDA» | Rp17,900B | ~$1,096.5M | ~Rp19,700B | 🔴 -9.1% | 🔴 -9.1% |
| Operating Income» | Rp9,413B | ~$576.6M | Rp10,627B | 🔴 -11.4% | 🔴 -11.4% |
| Net Income (attributable to owners) | Rp5,165B | ~$316.4M | Rp5,708B | ⚠️ -9.5% | ⚠️ -9.5% |
| Free Cash Flow» (OCF - capex) | Rp10,086B | ~$617.8M | Rp6,398B | ✅ +57.6% | ✅ +57.6% |
| Total Cash | Rp33,185B | ~$2,033.1M | Rp25,458B | ✅ +30.4% | ✅ +30.4% |
Free cash flow grew sharply again (+57.6%), extending the capital-discipline improvement this dataset has tracked since FY2024 - operating cash flow grew to Rp15,797 billion from Rp13,857 billion while capex fell to Rp5,711 billion from Rp7,459 billion. Revenue, EBITDA, and net income all declined YoY, a genuinely weaker quarter operationally, though free cash flow tells a clearly positive story underneath.
Profit fell on real ARPU pressure this quarter, not a one-off charge - Mobile's margin compression is the clearest sign yet of competitive strain. But free cash flow keeps improving sharply, and the stock finally bounced off its Q1 low. The real news is strategic: a major fiber-asset spin-off is now taking shape. See Beyond the Usual and Target Valuation Range.
Key Operational Metrics
- Telkomsel mobile ARPU: Rp42 thousand, down 7.4% YoY - worse than Q1's 6.5% decline, now an established trend
- Mobile customer base: 158.4 million, essentially stable (+0.9% YoY)
- Fixed broadband (FBB) subscribers: 10.1 million, up 10.0% YoY, with FBB ARPU at Rp220 thousand (+8.8% YoY) - a genuinely strong contrast to Mobile's ARPU decline
- Data payload: 11,441 PB for the half, up 20.1% YoY
- Capital expenditure: Rp5,711 billion this quarter (Rp4,814B property/equipment + Rp897B intangibles), down from Rp7,459 billion a year earlier
Segment Comparison
Q2 2025 vs Q2 2024 (restated)
| Segment | External Revenue Q2 2025 | External Revenue Q2 2024 (restated) | YoY | Segment Result Q2 2025 | Margin Q2 2025 | Margin Q2 2024 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mobile | Rp19,209B | Rp21,173B | ⚠️ -9.3% | Rp4,848B | 🔴 25.2% | 32.9% |
| Consumer (IndiHome) | Rp6,609B | Rp6,116B | ➖ +8.1% | Rp2,604B | ✅ 39.4% | 33.9% |
| Enterprise | Rp4,998B | Rp5,689B | ⚠️ -12.1% | Rp532B | ✅ 10.6% | -3.0% |
| WIB | Rp4,895B | Rp4,467B | ➖ +9.6% | Rp1,914B | 🔴 39.1% | 47.6% |
| Others | Rp550B | Rp248B | ✅ +121.8% | -Rp140B | n/m | n/m |
| Total segment | Rp36,261B | Rp37,693B | ⚠️ -3.8% | Rp9,758B | 26.9% | 25.9%* |
*Restated comparative basis.
Mobile's revenue decline (-9.3%) and margin collapse (32.9% to 25.2%) together make it by far the weakest segment this quarter, directly reflecting the ARPU pressure flagged above. WIB's margin also fell sharply (47.6% to 39.1%) despite genuine revenue growth (+9.6%), extending the multi-year erosion this dataset has tracked since 2022.
Mobile
Revenue fell 9.3% and margin collapsed nearly 8 points (32.9% to 25.2%) - by far the weakest quarter for this segment in this dataset's tracking history, directly tied to the ARPU decline management itself now acknowledges as a strategic priority to fix.
Consumer (IndiHome)
Margin improved sharply (33.9% to 39.4%) on real revenue growth (+8.1%) - genuinely the strongest segment this quarter, aided by the FBB subscriber and ARPU growth flagged in Key Operational Metrics.
Enterprise
Turned a solid profit (10.6% margin) after a loss a year earlier, its best margin since Q3 2023's record 18.6% - a real recovery, though revenue fell 12.1%, continuing the segment's pattern of profitability and revenue growth rarely moving together.
WIB (Wholesale and International Business)
Margin fell to 39.1% from 47.6%, its lowest reading yet in this dataset's tracking history, despite genuine revenue growth (+9.6%) driven by Mitratel and data-center/cloud - the multi-year margin erosion shows no sign of stabilizing.
Beyond the Usual
A ~Rp150 Trillion Fiber-Asset Spin-Off Is Now Taking Shape, With First-Phase Completion Targeted for Q4 2025
This quarter's presentation discloses, for the first time in this dataset's coverage, a structured plan to unlock roughly Rp150 trillion of fiber infrastructure assets (estimated net book value ~Rp90 trillion) through a dedicated subsidiary, PT Telkom Infrastruktur Indonesia ("TIF," referred to internally as "Infranexia" and, in strategy language, "FiberCo"). The stated objectives are to optimize fiber assets for both internal and external market opportunities, establish a strategic partnership to unlock value, and improve cost competitiveness. Per the disclosed timeline, TIF was established between December 2023 and Q3 2024, with a first phase (transferring "more than 50%" of selected fiber assets and business) targeted for Q4 2025 and a second phase (transferring the remainder) targeted for the second half of 2026. This is one of the largest structural moves disclosed anywhere in this dataset's TLKM coverage, and worth close tracking in coming quarters - a spin-off of this scale carries real execution, valuation, and (as later filings in this dataset eventually show) tax risk.
Target Valuation Range
Bottom line: undervalued - roughly Rp2,550-Rp3,650 fair-value range (bear-to-bull, TTM EV/EBITDA-based) against a Rp2,780 actual close, with the multiple recovering modestly this quarter even as operating fundamentals softened, suggesting the market may be starting to look past this year's ARPU pressure.
Telkom's shares closed Q2 2025 at Rp2,780, up 15.4% from Q1's Rp2,410 close - the first quarterly gain in this dataset's tracking since Q3 2023, even as this quarter's own operating numbers were genuinely weaker than Q1's. Over the trailing 2 years (June 2023 through June 2025), the stock moved from Rp4,000 to Rp2,780, a 30.5% decline - still a steep drawdown, though a meaningful improvement from Q1's 40.6% reading (see that post).
| Market cap → enterprise value | Q2 2025 (period-end) |
|---|---|
| Share price (period-end) | Rp2,780 |
| Shares outstanding | 99,062,216,600 |
| Market capitalization | ~Rp275,393 billion (~$16.9 billion) |
| Plus: total debt | Rp60,894 billion |
| Less: cash | Rp33,185 billion |
| Enterprise value | ~Rp303,102 billion |
| Peer-multiple sanity check | Q1 2025 | Q2 2025 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| TTM EPS | ~Rp236.24 | ~Rp230.75 | ➖ down slightly |
| P/E | ~10.2x | ~12.0x | ⚠️ up |
| Book value per share (owners) | ~Rp1,495.1 | ~Rp1,333.8 | 🔴 down |
| P/B | ~1.61x | ~2.08x | ⚠️ up |
| TTM Adjusted EBITDA | ~Rp73,800B | ~Rp72,000B | ➖ down slightly |
| EV/EBITDA (TTM) | ~3.4x | ~4.2x | ⚠️ up |
Every multiple moved up this quarter as the share price recovered faster than trailing fundamentals - a genuine re-rating off Q1's depressed base rather than an improving earnings story. Applying a range reflecting this dataset's recent lower baseline:
| Scenario | Key assumption | Multiple | Implied EV | Implied price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Current (Q2 2025 close) | actual market price, for reference | ~4.2x TTM Adjusted EBITDA | ~Rp303,102 billion | Rp2,780 |
| Bear | ARPU pressure continues into Q3 and the FiberCo spin-off introduces execution uncertainty | ~3.8x | ~Rp273,600 billion | ~Rp2,550 |
| Base | The multiple holds near current levels pending Q3 confirmation of whether ARPU stabilizes | ~4.2x | ~Rp302,400 billion | ~Rp2,772 |
| Bull | Mobile's "rebuilding momentum" initiatives show early traction and the FiberCo spin-off is well-received as a genuine value unlock | ~5.0x | ~Rp360,000 billion | ~Rp3,652 |
The current close sits essentially at base case, consistent with a market cautiously recovering from Q1's overreaction while still pricing in real uncertainty about both the ARPU trend and the FiberCo restructuring's execution.
Perusahaan Perseroan (Persero) PT Telekomunikasi Indonesia Tbk's unaudited consolidated financial statements as of and for the six-month period ended June 30, 2025 (with discrete second-quarter figures derived by subtracting the already-reported first-quarter results), reflecting subsequent events through the report's issuance, plus the Company's 1H25 corporate presentation.