The First Full Quarter Under the New Ownership Structure
Q1 2025 is the first quarter this dataset covers with Telkom's shares formally held through the new Danantara-affiliated state holding company (BKI), the ownership restructuring flagged as a subsequent event in FY2024's post - this quarter's own filing now shows BKI directly as the 52.09% shareholder in the ownership footnote, confirming the transfer is fully in effect rather than still pending.
Operationally, the quarter continued the softening trend: revenue fell 2.1% YoY to Rp36,639 billion, the second consecutive quarterly decline after Q3 2024's first-ever YoY drop in this dataset's coverage, and net income attributable to owners fell 4.0% to Rp5,810 billion. Company-disclosed EBITDA fell 6.1% to Rp18.2 trillion (margin 49.8%). Telkomsel's own materials disclose mobile ARPU falling 6.5% YoY to Rp42.4 thousand - a genuine pricing/monetization concern, the first time this dataset has recorded a clearly disclosed ARPU decline rather than growth. On the positive side, Enterprise's margin improved to 8.5% from 3.1% a year earlier, and management specifically credited "diversification from Consumer" with Enterprise (+2.9% YoY) and Wholesale & International (+0.6% YoY, driven by Mitratel and data-center/cloud) as offsetting softness elsewhere.
The stock closed the quarter at Rp2,410, after touching Rp2,350 in February - both new lows in this dataset's entire TLKM price history, and a 40.6% decline over the trailing two years from Rp4,060 at the end of Q1 2023.
The Prescription
Telkom should address the ARPU decline directly and specifically - is this a deliberate strategic tradeoff (competing on price to defend subscriber share) or a sign of genuine competitive pressure in Indonesia's mobile market? A 6.5% ARPU decline is a meaningfully different signal than the flat-to-growing ARPU this dataset has tracked in every prior quarter, and deserves more than the passive "moderated" framing used in the presentation. Given the stock now sits 40%+ below its two-year-ago level under an entirely new ownership structure, management should also use the new BKI/Danantara relationship as an opportunity to reset investor confidence with a clear medium-term strategic and capital-allocation roadmap, rather than letting the ownership change pass with minimal explanation.
Key Financial Metrics
Q1 2025 (three months ended Mar 31, 2025) vs Q1 2024, consolidated
FX: approximately Rp16,575 = US$1 (Mar 27, 2025 market rate), used only to convert the USD columns below.
| Metric | Q1 2025 (Rp) | Q1 2025 (US$) | Q1 2024 (Rp) | YoY (Rp) | YoY (US$) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | Rp36,639B | ~$2,211.0M | Rp37,429B | -2.1% | -2.1% |
| Adjusted EBITDA» | Rp18,200B | ~$1,098.2M | ~Rp19,400B | -6.1% | -6.1% |
| Operating Income» | Rp10,488B | ~$632.8M | Rp11,008B | -4.7% | -4.7% |
| Net Income (attributable to owners) | Rp5,810B | ~$350.5M | Rp6,053B | -4.0% | -4.0% |
| Free Cash Flow» (OCF - capex) | Rp10,940B | ~$660.1M | Rp9,571B | +14.3% | +14.3% |
| Total Cash | Rp34,410B | ~$2,076.5M | Rp29,521B | +16.6% | +16.6% |
Free cash flow grew again this quarter (+14.3%), continuing FY2024's improved capital discipline (see that post) - operating cash flow grew to Rp16,776 billion from Rp15,830 billion while capex fell to Rp5,836 billion from Rp6,259 billion. The GoTo mark-to-market line was a modest +Rp308 billion gain this quarter, a small tailwind rather than a driver of the results.
Revenue and profit both fell modestly for a second straight quarter, and Telkomsel's ARPU decline is a genuinely new concern. Free cash flow keeps improving, and Enterprise's margin recovered. But none of that has stopped the stock from hitting a fresh low. See Target Valuation Range.
Key Operational Metrics
- Telkomsel standalone revenue: Rp27.2 trillion, up 4.6% YoY, with mobile customer base roughly stable (158.8 million, +0.5% YoY) but ARPU falling 6.5% YoY to Rp42.4 thousand
- IndiHome: healthy growth driven by network expansion, with approximately 230 thousand net new subscribers this quarter
- Fixed-mobile convergence: "moderated" to 55% per management's own framing, without further detail on what drove the deceleration
- Capital expenditure: Rp5,836 billion this quarter (Rp5,101B property/equipment + Rp735B intangibles), down from Rp6,259 billion a year earlier
Segment Comparison
Q1 2025 vs Q1 2024 (restated)
| Segment | External Revenue Q1 2025 | External Revenue Q1 2024 (restated) | YoY | Segment Result Q1 2025 | Margin Q1 2025 | Margin Q1 2024 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mobile | Rp19,756B | Rp21,091B | -6.3% | Rp6,201B | 31.4% | 30.2% |
| Consumer (IndiHome) | Rp6,674B | Rp6,440B | +3.6% | Rp2,409B | 36.1% | 35.7% |
| Enterprise | Rp5,032B | Rp4,894B | +2.8% | Rp430B | 8.5% | 3.1% |
| WIB | Rp4,754B | Rp4,760B | -0.1% | Rp2,255B | 47.4% | 53.3% |
| Others | Rp327B | Rp126B | +159.5% | -Rp155B | n/m | n/m |
| Total segment | Rp36,543B | Rp37,311B | -2.1% | Rp11,140B | 30.5% | 29.8% |
Mobile's revenue decline (-6.3%) is the largest driver of the total revenue drop and lines up directly with the ARPU weakness flagged in Key Operational Metrics - even though Mobile's margin actually improved slightly, meaning cost discipline offset the top-line pressure this quarter. WIB's margin fell sharply again (53.3% to 47.4%), continuing a now multi-year erosion.
Mobile
Revenue fell 6.3% YoY - the segment's weakest revenue performance in this dataset's tracking history - while margin still improved slightly (30.2% to 31.4%) on cost discipline, a genuinely mixed result.
Consumer (IndiHome)
Steady growth (+3.6%) and modestly improved margin (35.7% to 36.1%) - the most consistently stable segment across recent quarters, helped by the ~230 thousand net new subscribers this quarter.
Enterprise
Margin recovered to 8.5% from 3.1% a year earlier, management specifically crediting Enterprise's 2.9% revenue growth as part of "diversification from Consumer Business" - a positive framing after FY2024's weak 2.2% full-year margin (see that post), though still well below Q3 2023's 18.6% record.
WIB (Wholesale and International Business)
Margin fell to 47.4% from 53.3%, continuing the multi-year decline, even as management credited the segment's modest revenue resilience (helped by Mitratel and data-center/cloud) as part of the quarter's diversification story.
Target Valuation Range
Cheaper than its own history, with no peer table to compare: ~3.4x EV/EBITDA, ~10.2x P/E and ~1.61x P/B. All three fell from FY2024 (~3.8x, ~11.4x, ~1.89x) as the share price dropped 11.1% to Rp2,410 while TTM Adjusted EBITDA slipped only slightly, after a fifth consecutive quarter of decline and a two-year drop now exceeding 40%.
Telkom's shares closed Q1 2025 at Rp2,410, down 11.1% from FY2024's Rp2,710 close (see that post), after touching an intraquarter low of Rp2,350 in February - both new lows in this dataset's TLKM coverage. Over the trailing 2 years (March 2023 through March 2025), the stock moved from Rp4,060 to Rp2,410, a 40.6% decline - the first time this dataset's trailing-2-year TLKM reading has crossed the 40% threshold, on a business whose net income attributable to owners has stayed within a relatively narrow band (roughly Rp5.7-6.7 trillion per quarter) across the entire period.
| Market cap → enterprise value | Q1 2025 (period-end) |
|---|---|
| Share price (period-end) | Rp2,410 |
| Shares outstanding | 99,062,216,600 |
| Market capitalization | ~Rp238,760 billion (~$14.4 billion) |
| Plus: total debt | Rp45,304 billion |
| Less: cash | Rp34,410 billion |
| Enterprise value | ~Rp249,654 billion |
| Peer-multiple sanity check | FY2024 | Q1 2025 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| TTM EPS | Rp238.73 | ~Rp236.24 | flat |
| P/E | ~11.4x | ~10.2x | down |
| Book value per share (owners) | ~Rp1,434.3 | ~Rp1,495.1 | up |
| P/B | ~1.89x | ~1.61x | down |
| TTM Adjusted EBITDA | Rp75,000B | ~Rp73,800B | down slightly |
| EV/EBITDA (TTM) | ~3.8x | ~3.4x | down |
EV/EBITDA has now fallen to roughly 3.4x, its lowest reading anywhere in this dataset's TLKM coverage. Enterprise value here is market capitalization plus total debt less cash and does not add non-controlling interests (Rp22,183 billion at March 31, 2025), although Adjusted EBITDA is consolidated; adding them would put EV/EBITDA at about 3.7x instead of 3.4x.
A stock trading at roughly 3.4x TTM EBITDA against a business generating consistently positive net income and improving free cash flow is, by this dataset's own historical range for TLKM, priced for a pessimistic outlook that the actual numbers haven't yet confirmed.
Perusahaan Perseroan (Persero) PT Telekomunikasi Indonesia Tbk's unaudited consolidated financial statements as of and for the three-month period ended March 31, 2025, reflecting subsequent events through the report's issuance, plus the Company's 1Q25 corporate presentation.