The First Full Quarter Under the New Ownership Structure
Q1 2025 is the first quarter this dataset covers with Telkom's shares formally held through the new Danantara-affiliated state holding company (BKI), the ownership restructuring flagged as a subsequent event in FY2024's post - this quarter's own filing now shows BKI directly as the 52.09% shareholder in the ownership footnote, confirming the transfer is fully in effect rather than still pending.
Operationally, the quarter continued the softening trend: revenue fell 2.1% YoY to Rp36,639 billion, the second consecutive quarterly decline after Q3 2024's first-ever YoY drop in this dataset's coverage, and net income attributable to owners fell 4.0% to Rp5,810 billion. Company-disclosed EBITDA fell 6.1% to Rp18.2 trillion (margin 49.8%). Telkomsel's own materials disclose mobile ARPU falling 6.5% YoY to Rp42.4 thousand - a genuine pricing/monetization concern, the first time this dataset has recorded a clearly disclosed ARPU decline rather than growth. On the positive side, Enterprise's margin improved to 8.5% from 3.1% a year earlier, and management specifically credited "diversification from Consumer" with Enterprise (+2.9% YoY) and Wholesale & International (+0.6% YoY, driven by Mitratel and data-center/cloud) as offsetting softness elsewhere.
The stock closed the quarter at Rp2,410, after touching Rp2,350 in February - both new lows in this dataset's entire TLKM price history, and a 40.6% decline over the trailing two years from Rp4,060 at the end of Q1 2023.
The Prescription
Telkom should address the ARPU decline directly and specifically - is this a deliberate strategic tradeoff (competing on price to defend subscriber share) or a sign of genuine competitive pressure in Indonesia's mobile market? A 6.5% ARPU decline is a meaningfully different signal than the flat-to-growing ARPU this dataset has tracked in every prior quarter, and deserves more than the passive "moderated" framing used in the presentation. Given the stock now sits 40%+ below its two-year-ago level under an entirely new ownership structure, management should also use the new BKI/Danantara relationship as an opportunity to reset investor confidence with a clear medium-term strategic and capital-allocation roadmap, rather than letting the ownership change pass with minimal explanation.
Key Financial Metrics
Q1 2025 (three months ended Mar 31, 2025) vs Q1 2024, consolidated
FX: approximately Rp16,575 = US$1 (Mar 27, 2025 market rate), used only to convert the USD columns below.
| Metric | Q1 2025 (Rp) | Q1 2025 (US$) | Q1 2024 (Rp) | YoY (Rp) | YoY (US$) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | Rp36,639B | ~$2,211.0M | Rp37,429B | ⚠️ -2.1% | ⚠️ -2.1% |
| Adjusted EBITDA» | Rp18,200B | ~$1,098.2M | ~Rp19,400B | 🔴 -6.1% | 🔴 -6.1% |
| Operating Income» | Rp10,488B | ~$632.8M | Rp11,008B | ⚠️ -4.7% | ⚠️ -4.7% |
| Net Income (attributable to owners) | Rp5,810B | ~$350.5M | Rp6,053B | ⚠️ -4.0% | ⚠️ -4.0% |
| Free Cash Flow» (OCF - capex) | Rp10,940B | ~$660.1M | Rp9,571B | ✅ +14.3% | ✅ +14.3% |
| Total Cash | Rp34,410B | ~$2,076.5M | Rp29,521B | ✅ +16.6% | ✅ +16.6% |
Free cash flow grew again this quarter (+14.3%), continuing FY2024's improved capital discipline (see that post) - operating cash flow grew to Rp16,776 billion from Rp15,830 billion while capex fell to Rp5,836 billion from Rp6,259 billion. The GoTo mark-to-market line was a modest +Rp308 billion gain this quarter, a small tailwind rather than a driver of the results.
Revenue and profit both fell modestly for a second straight quarter, and Telkomsel's ARPU decline is a genuinely new concern. Free cash flow keeps improving, and Enterprise's margin recovered. But none of that has stopped the stock from hitting a fresh low. See Target Valuation Range.
Key Operational Metrics
- Telkomsel standalone revenue: Rp27.2 trillion, up 4.6% YoY, with mobile customer base roughly stable (158.8 million, +0.5% YoY) but ARPU falling 6.5% YoY to Rp42.4 thousand
- IndiHome: healthy growth driven by network expansion, with approximately 230 thousand net new subscribers this quarter
- Fixed-mobile convergence: "moderated" to 55% per management's own framing, without further detail on what drove the deceleration
- Capital expenditure: Rp5,836 billion this quarter (Rp5,101B property/equipment + Rp735B intangibles), down from Rp6,259 billion a year earlier
Segment Comparison
Q1 2025 vs Q1 2024 (restated)
| Segment | External Revenue Q1 2025 | External Revenue Q1 2024 (restated) | YoY | Segment Result Q1 2025 | Margin Q1 2025 | Margin Q1 2024 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mobile | Rp19,756B | Rp21,091B | ⚠️ -6.3% | Rp6,201B | ✅ 31.4% | 30.2% |
| Consumer (IndiHome) | Rp6,674B | Rp6,440B | ➖ +3.6% | Rp2,409B | ➖ 36.1% | 35.7% |
| Enterprise | Rp5,032B | Rp4,894B | ➖ +2.8% | Rp430B | ✅ 8.5% | 3.1% |
| WIB | Rp4,754B | Rp4,760B | ➖ -0.1% | Rp2,255B | 🔴 47.4% | 53.3% |
| Others | Rp327B | Rp126B | ✅ +159.5% | -Rp155B | n/m | n/m |
| Total segment | Rp36,543B | Rp37,311B | ⚠️ -2.1% | Rp11,140B | 30.5% | 29.8% |
Mobile's revenue decline (-6.3%) is the largest driver of the total revenue drop and lines up directly with the ARPU weakness flagged in Key Operational Metrics - even though Mobile's margin actually improved slightly, meaning cost discipline offset the top-line pressure this quarter. WIB's margin fell sharply again (53.3% to 47.4%), continuing a now multi-year erosion.
Mobile
Revenue fell 6.3% YoY - the segment's weakest revenue performance in this dataset's tracking history - while margin still improved slightly (30.2% to 31.4%) on cost discipline, a genuinely mixed result.
Consumer (IndiHome)
Steady growth (+3.6%) and modestly improved margin (35.7% to 36.1%) - the most consistently stable segment across recent quarters, helped by the ~230 thousand net new subscribers this quarter.
Enterprise
Margin recovered to 8.5% from 3.1% a year earlier, management specifically crediting Enterprise's 2.9% revenue growth as part of "diversification from Consumer Business" - a positive framing after FY2024's weak 2.2% full-year margin (see that post), though still well below Q3 2023's 18.6% record.
WIB (Wholesale and International Business)
Margin fell to 47.4% from 53.3%, continuing the multi-year decline, even as management credited the segment's modest revenue resilience (helped by Mitratel and data-center/cloud) as part of the quarter's diversification story.
Target Valuation Range
Bottom line: undervalued - roughly Rp2,300-Rp3,300 fair-value range (bear-to-bull, TTM EV/EBITDA-based) against a Rp2,410 actual close, sitting near the bear end after a fifth consecutive quarter of decline and a two-year drop now exceeding 40%.
Telkom's shares closed Q1 2025 at Rp2,410, down 11.1% from FY2024's Rp2,710 close (see that post), after touching an intraquarter low of Rp2,350 in February - both new lows in this dataset's TLKM coverage. Over the trailing 2 years (March 2023 through March 2025), the stock moved from Rp4,060 to Rp2,410, a 40.6% decline - the first time this dataset's trailing-2-year TLKM reading has crossed the 40% threshold, on a business whose net income attributable to owners has stayed within a relatively narrow band (roughly Rp5.7-6.7 trillion per quarter) across the entire period.
| Market cap → enterprise value | Q1 2025 (period-end) |
|---|---|
| Share price (period-end) | Rp2,410 |
| Shares outstanding | 99,062,216,600 |
| Market capitalization | ~Rp238,760 billion (~$14.4 billion) |
| Plus: total debt | Rp45,304 billion |
| Less: cash | Rp34,410 billion |
| Enterprise value | ~Rp249,654 billion |
| Peer-multiple sanity check | FY2024 | Q1 2025 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| TTM EPS | Rp238.73 | ~Rp236.24 | ➖ flat |
| P/E | ~11.4x | ~10.2x | ✅ down |
| Book value per share (owners) | ~Rp1,434.3 | ~Rp1,495.1 | ✅ up |
| P/B | ~1.89x | ~1.61x | ✅ down |
| TTM Adjusted EBITDA | Rp75,000B | ~Rp73,800B | ➖ down slightly |
| EV/EBITDA (TTM) | ~3.8x | ~3.4x | ✅ down |
EV/EBITDA has now fallen to roughly 3.4x, its lowest reading anywhere in this dataset's TLKM coverage - well below even the bear-case assumptions used in prior quarters' valuation ranges. Applying a further-adjusted range to reflect this new baseline:
| Scenario | Key assumption | Multiple | Implied EV | Implied price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Current (Q1 2025 close) | actual market price, for reference | ~3.4x TTM Adjusted EBITDA | ~Rp249,654 billion | Rp2,410 |
| Bear | ARPU pressure and revenue softness persist, and uncertainty around the new Danantara ownership structure keeps the multiple compressed | ~3.1x | ~Rp228,780 billion | ~Rp2,205 |
| Base | The multiple stabilizes near current levels pending clarity on whether Q1's revenue decline is temporary or structural | ~3.4x | ~Rp250,920 billion | ~Rp2,422 |
| Bull | ARPU stabilizes, Enterprise's recovery continues, and the market reverts the multiple toward this dataset's historically more typical 4.5x range | ~4.5x | ~Rp332,100 billion | ~Rp3,270 |
The current close sits almost exactly at base case on this compressed baseline - but zooming out, a stock trading at roughly 3.4x TTM EBITDA against a business generating consistently positive net income and improving free cash flow is, by this dataset's own historical range for TLKM, priced for a genuinely pessimistic scenario that the actual numbers haven't yet confirmed.
Perusahaan Perseroan (Persero) PT Telekomunikasi Indonesia Tbk's unaudited consolidated financial statements as of and for the three-month period ended March 31, 2025, reflecting subsequent events through the report's issuance, plus the Company's 1Q25 corporate presentation.