TLKM The Government Just Moved Its Entire Stake Into a New State Holding Company

A Governance Restructuring Bigger Than the Year's Numbers

FY2024 was a modest step down operationally: revenue grew just 0.5% to Rp149,967 billion, and net income attributable to owners fell 3.7% to Rp23,649 billion, with company-disclosed EBITDA falling 3.3% to Rp75.0 trillion (margin 50.0%) - the early-retirement program charge first flagged in Q2 2024's post continuing to weigh on the year, with normalized EBITDA (excluding ERP costs) down a smaller 1.8% at 50.8% margin. The GoTo mark-to-market line actually turned into a small +Rp188 billion gain for the year, a genuine reversal from three straight years of net losses on that position.

But the number that matters most this year isn't in the P&L. A subsequent-events footnote discloses that on March 22, 2025, the Indonesian government transferred its entire 52.09% ownership stake in Telkom - all 51.6 billion Series B shares - to a newly formed state holding company, PT Biro Klasifikasi Indonesia ("BKI"), which itself sits entirely under Indonesia's new "Danantara" sovereign investment structure. The government retains ultimate beneficial ownership indirectly through Danantara and its single special-rights "Dwiwarna" share, but Telkom's controlling shareholder is now, formally, a state holding entity rather than the government directly - a genuine structural change to how Indonesia's largest telecom incumbent is owned, disclosed the same filing that also revealed a freshly announced Rp3,000 billion share buyback program (April 17, 2025 - May 27, 2026).

The stock, meanwhile, closed FY2024 at Rp2,710 - a new low across this dataset's entire TLKM coverage, down 27.7% over the trailing two years (from Rp3,750 at FY2022's close) - continuing the drawdown flagged across every 2024 quarter this dataset has tracked.

The Prescription

Telkom should clearly explain, in its own investor communications rather than leaving it buried in a subsequent-events footnote, what the Danantara/BKI restructuring means practically for governance, board composition, and capital-allocation decision-making going forward - a change this significant to the company's controlling shareholder structure deserves a dedicated investor briefing, not a two-paragraph footnote. Given the newly announced Rp3 trillion buyback lands the same filing as a stock sitting at this dataset's lowest recorded price, Telkom should also be transparent about the buyback's rationale - is management signaling the shares are undervalued at these levels, or is this a routine capital-return program unrelated to the price level?

Key Financial Metrics

FY2024 (year ended Dec 31, 2024) vs FY2023, consolidated

FX: approximately Rp16,100 = US$1 (Dec 30, 2024 market rate), used only to convert the USD columns below.

Metric	FY2024 (Rp)	FY2024 (US$)	FY2023 (Rp)	YoY (Rp)	YoY (US$)
Revenue	Rp149,967B	~$9,315.0M	Rp149,216B	➖ +0.5%	➖ +0.5%
Adjusted EBITDA»	Rp75,000B	~$4,658.4M	Rp77,600B	⚠️ -3.3%	⚠️ -3.3%
Operating Income»	Rp42,991B	~$2,670.6M	Rp44,384B	⚠️ -3.1%	⚠️ -3.1%
Net Income (attributable to owners)	Rp23,649B	~$1,469.2M	Rp24,560B	⚠️ -3.7%	⚠️ -3.7%
Free Cash Flow» (OCF - capex)	Rp31,937B	~$1,983.7M	Rp24,163B	✅ +32.2%	✅ +32.2%
Total Cash	Rp33,905B	~$2,106.5M	Rp29,007B	✅ +16.9%	✅ +16.9%

Free cash flow grew sharply (+32.2%) despite the softer profit line - operating cash flow held roughly flat (Rp61,600 billion vs Rp60,581 billion) while capex fell meaningfully (Rp29,663 billion vs Rp36,418 billion), a genuine improvement in capital discipline after several years of elevated spending. This is the strongest FCF year in this dataset's TLKM coverage on a Rupiah basis.

Profit fell modestly on continued restructuring costs, but free cash flow grew sharply on lower capex - a genuinely improving cash story underneath a soft headline. The real news this year is structural: the government moved its entire stake into a new state holding company. See Beyond the Usual and Target Valuation Range.

Key Operational Metrics

• Telkomsel standalone revenue: Rp113.3 trillion, up 10.7% YoY, with mobile customer base essentially flat (159.4 million, +0.0% YoY) and ARPU at Rp44.4 thousand
• Capital expenditure: Rp29,663 billion for the year (Rp26,005B property/equipment + Rp3,658B intangibles), down sharply from Rp36,418 billion in FY2023
• Note on segment comparability: this filing's FY2023 comparative figures show Consumer and Enterprise external revenue restated (Rp26,442B and Rp19,508B respectively) versus what FY2023's own post originally reported (Rp27,713B and Rp18,237B) - consistent with the IndiHome B2B reclassification flagged in Q1 2024's post being applied retroactively; the segment table below uses this filing's own restated comparatives

Segment Comparison

FY2024 vs FY2023 (restated), full year

Segment	External Revenue FY2024	External Revenue FY2023 (restated)	YoY	Segment Result FY2024	Margin FY2024	Margin FY2023
Mobile	Rp83,400B	Rp85,291B	➖ -2.2%	Rp25,977B	➖ 31.1%	33.6%
Consumer (IndiHome)	Rp26,312B	Rp26,442B	➖ -0.5%	Rp8,216B	✅ 31.2%	30.1%
Enterprise	Rp20,593B	Rp19,508B	✅ +5.6%	Rp443B	⚠️ 2.2%	3.1%
WIB	Rp18,002B	Rp16,928B	✅ +6.3%	Rp9,102B	🔴 50.6%	55.5%
Others	Rp1,078B	Rp402B	✅ +168.2%	-Rp1,051B	n/m	n/m
Total segment	Rp149,385B	Rp148,571B	➖ +0.5%	Rp42,687B	28.6%	30.6%

Total segment margin fell 2 points, mostly driven by Mobile's continued decline (33.6% to 31.1%) and WIB's sharp drop (55.5% to 50.6%, WIB's lowest full-year margin in this dataset's tracking history). Enterprise's full-year margin (2.2%) is its weakest since FY2020, a genuinely disappointing year for a segment that posted a record 18.6% single-quarter margin as recently as Q3 2023.

Mobile

Full-year margin fell to 31.1% from 33.6%, extending the multi-quarter erosion this dataset has tracked since mid-2023 with no reversal yet across a full fiscal year.

Consumer (IndiHome)

Margin improved modestly (30.1% to 31.2%) on essentially flat revenue - the most stable segment on a full-year basis, though the reclassification noted above complicates a clean multi-year comparison.

Enterprise

Revenue grew fastest of the core segments (+5.6%) but margin fell to 2.2% from 3.1% - the weakest full-year margin since FY2020's -1.6%, a genuinely poor year for a segment whose volatility this dataset has tracked extensively without ever finding a disclosed cause.

WIB (Wholesale and International Business)

Margin fell to 50.6% from 55.5%, the segment's lowest full-year reading in this dataset's history, despite genuinely strong revenue growth (+6.3%) - the multi-year margin erosion flagged since 2022 shows no sign of stabilizing.

Beyond the Usual

The Government Transferred Its Entire Telkom Stake to a New State Holding Company

A subsequent-events footnote discloses that on March 22, 2025, the Indonesian government transferred its full 52.09% ownership stake in Telkom (51,602,353,559 Series B shares) via "inbreng" capital contribution to PT Biro Klasifikasi Indonesia ("BKI"), a newly designated Operational Holding Company. BKI's own shares are entirely owned by the government through the Ministry of State-Owned Enterprises and the "Daya Anagata Nusantara Investment Management Agency" (Danantara), Indonesia's newly established sovereign investment fund. The government retains ultimate beneficial ownership indirectly through Danantara and its direct holding of one special-rights "Dwiwarna" share, so control doesn't change hands to a private party - but Telkom's immediate, direct controlling shareholder is now a state holding company rather than the Indonesian government itself, a structural change with potential implications for governance, board nomination processes, and capital-allocation decisions that the filing itself doesn't elaborate on. This is worth close attention in coming quarters, since it's a foundational ownership change, not a routine subsequent event.

A Rp3 Trillion Buyback Was Announced the Same Quarter the Stock Hit a New Low

The same subsequent-events footnote discloses a share buyback program of up to Rp3,000 billion, announced April 17, 2025 and planned to run through May 27, 2026 - landing in the same filing period as the stock closing FY2024 at Rp2,710, this dataset's lowest recorded TLKM price. The filing doesn't state an explicit rationale connecting the two, but the timing (a capital-return program authorized right as the shares hit a multi-year low) is worth tracking as this dataset's coverage moves into 2025.

Target Valuation Range

Bottom line: undervalued - roughly Rp2,600-Rp3,650 fair-value range (bear-to-bull, TTM EV/EBITDA-based) against a Rp2,710 actual close, sitting near the bear end after a fourth consecutive quarter of decline, on a business whose free cash flow actually improved sharply this year.

Telkom's shares closed FY2024 at Rp2,710, down 9.4% from Q3's Rp2,990 close (see that post) - a fourth straight quarterly decline. Over the trailing 2 years (December 2022 through December 2024), the stock moved from Rp3,750 to Rp2,710, a 27.7% decline, extending the pattern this dataset flagged across Q2 and Q3's posts.

Market cap → enterprise value	FY2024 (period-end)
Share price (period-end)	Rp2,710
Shares outstanding	99,062,216,600
Market capitalization	~Rp268,538 billion (~$16.7 billion)
Plus: total debt	Rp52,909 billion
Less: cash	Rp33,905 billion
Enterprise value	~Rp287,542 billion

Peer-multiple sanity check	Q3 2024	FY2024	Change
TTM EPS	~Rp229.50	Rp238.73	✅ up
P/E	~13.0x	~11.4x	✅ down
Book value per share (owners)	~Rp1,369.7	~Rp1,434.3	✅ up
P/B	~2.18x	~1.89x	✅ down
TTM Adjusted EBITDA	~Rp76,536B	Rp75,000B	➖ down slightly
EV/EBITDA (TTM)	~4.2x	~3.8x	✅ down

Every multiple compressed further this quarter, extending the re-rating this dataset has tracked since Q2 2024 - book value per share and EPS both grew, meaning the entire multiple compression is the price falling, not the fundamentals weakening. Applying an adjusted range reflecting this dataset's new lower baseline, first introduced in Q3's post:

Scenario	Key assumption	Multiple	Implied EV	Implied price
Current (FY2024 close)	actual market price, for reference	~3.8x TTM Adjusted EBITDA	~Rp287,542 billion	Rp2,710
Bear	The Danantara restructuring introduces genuine governance uncertainty that keeps the multiple depressed	~3.5x	~Rp262,500 billion	~Rp2,464
Base	The multiple stabilizes near current levels pending clarity on the new ownership structure's practical implications	~3.8x	~Rp285,000 billion	~Rp2,687
Bull	The buyback signals genuine undervaluation, the market recognizes FY2024's sharp FCF improvement, and the multiple partially reverts toward this dataset's historical 4.5x-5x range	~4.9x	~Rp367,500 billion	~Rp3,636

The current close sits almost exactly at base case - the market has priced in real caution about both the multi-quarter operating softness and the new ownership structure's uncertainty, without yet crediting the year's genuinely strong free-cash-flow improvement or the newly announced buyback.

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