This Quarter, the Numbers Actually Match the Stock's Pessimism
Q2's post flagged a striking gap between a 37% stock decline and a business that kept growing revenue every quarter. Q3 2024 narrows that gap somewhat: net income attributable to owners fell 9.4% YoY to Rp17,675 billion on a nine-month basis (Rp5,914 billion this discrete quarter, up modestly from Q2's Rp5,708 billion), and company-disclosed nine-month EBITDA fell 4.1% YoY to Rp56.6 trillion (margin 50.5%, down from a comparable prior-year level) - the early-retirement program charge first flagged in Q2's post continuing to weigh on results, with normalized EBITDA (excluding the ERP cost) down a smaller 2.1% at a 51.5% margin.
Enterprise, this dataset's most volatile segment, posted a 7.0% margin this quarter - a real profit, but a sharp step down from Q3 2023's record 18.6% (see that post) on almost identical revenue. The stock closed the quarter at Rp2,990, having touched Rp2,880 in July - a fresh low below even Q2's Rp2,900 intraquarter trough - before a modest recovery into quarter-end. Over the trailing 2 years, the stock is now down 33.0%, the worst reading yet in this dataset's TLKM coverage.
The Prescription
Telkom should give investors a clear, quantified path back to normalized EBITDA margin recovery - the early-retirement program's near-term cost drag is disclosed, but the expected payback timeline (when the headcount reduction starts saving more than the charge cost) isn't. Given three consecutive quarters of stock-price weakness now partially validated by genuinely softer fundamentals, management should also address the Enterprise segment's volatility directly on the next call - a segment that's now posted five different results (loss, thin profit, loss, record profit, weaker profit) across the last five quarters tracked in this dataset needs a real explanation, not another silent footnote.
Key Financial Metrics
Q3 2024 (three months ended Sep 30, 2024) vs Q3 2023, consolidated
FX: approximately Rp15,140 = US$1 (Sep 30, 2024 market rate), used only to convert the USD columns below.
| Metric | Q3 2024 (Rp) | Q3 2024 (US$) | Q3 2023 (Rp) | YoY (Rp) | YoY (US$) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | Rp36,927B | ~$2,439.0M | Rp37,760B | ⚠️ -2.2% | ⚠️ -2.2% |
| Adjusted EBITDA» | ~Rp18,936B | ~$1,250.7M | ~Rp20,700B | 🔴 -8.5% | 🔴 -8.5% |
| Operating Income» | Rp10,815B | ~$714.3M | Rp11,963B | 🔴 -9.6% | 🔴 -9.6% |
| Net Income (attributable to owners) | Rp5,914B | ~$390.6M | Rp6,743B | 🔴 -12.3% | 🔴 -12.3% |
| Free Cash Flow» (OCF - capex) | Rp8,782B | ~$580.0M | Rp8,488B | ➖ +3.5% | ➖ +3.5% |
| Total Cash | Rp24,540B | ~$1,621.0M | Rp25,905B | ➖ -5.3% | ➖ -5.3% |
Revenue actually declined YoY this quarter - a genuine break from the growth this dataset has tracked in every quarter since 2020 - though the decline is modest (-2.2%) and the GoTo mark-to-market line worked in Telkom's favor this quarter (+Rp381 billion gain, reversing Q1 and Q2's losses), meaning the operating-income and net-income declines trace mostly to weaker Enterprise margin and continued ERP-related personnel costs rather than a GoTo swing this time. Free cash flow held up well despite the weaker headline numbers.
Revenue fell for the first time in this dataset's TLKM coverage, and profit fell double digits - genuinely weaker fundamentals this quarter, not just base effects or a GoTo swing. The stock's pessimism is starting to line up with the numbers. See Target Valuation Range for where the multiple now sits.
Key Operational Metrics
- Telkomsel revenue: Rp85.2 trillion for the nine months, up 16.4% YoY (this figure reflects Telkomsel's own standalone revenue post-IndiHome consolidation, not directly comparable to pre-2023 figures)
- Telkomsel subscribers: 158.4 million, essentially flat YoY (+0.1%)
- Capital expenditure: Rp7,486 billion this quarter (Rp6,185B property/equipment + Rp1,301B intangibles), down from Rp8,669 billion a year earlier
Segment Comparison
Q3 2024 vs Q3 2023
| Segment | External Revenue Q3 2024 | External Revenue Q3 2023 | YoY | Segment Result Q3 2024 | Margin Q3 2024 | Margin Q3 2023 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mobile | Rp20,607B | Rp21,619B | ⚠️ -4.7% | Rp6,308B | ➖ 30.6% | 32.1% |
| Consumer (IndiHome) | Rp6,666B | Rp6,465B | ➖ +3.1% | Rp2,178B | ➖ 32.7% | 32.7% |
| Enterprise | Rp4,989B | Rp5,313B | ⚠️ -6.1% | Rp349B | 🔴 7.0% | 18.6% |
| WIB | Rp4,183B | Rp4,175B | ➖ +0.2% | Rp2,301B | ➖ 55.0% | 53.8% |
| Others | Rp359B | Rp103B | ✅ +248.5% | -Rp256B | n/m | n/m |
| Total segment | Rp36,804B | Rp37,675B | ⚠️ -2.3% | Rp11,880B | 32.3% | 31.9% |
Mobile's revenue decline (-4.7%) is the largest single driver of the total revenue drop, a genuine reversal from the modest growth flagged in earlier 2024 quarters. Enterprise's margin collapse from Q3 2023's record (18.6% to 7.0%) is the sharpest single-segment move, though it's still a real profit, not a loss.
Mobile
Revenue fell 4.7% YoY, the segment's weakest quarter in this dataset's tracking history - worth watching closely into Q4 as the first clear sign of demand softening rather than just margin pressure.
Consumer (IndiHome)
Margin held flat (32.7% to 32.7%) on modest revenue growth - the most stable segment this quarter, though still not directly comparable YoY given the B2B reclassification flagged in Q1's post.
Enterprise
Margin fell to 7.0% from Q3 2023's record 18.6% on a smaller revenue base (-6.1%) - a real profit, but a sharp step down that confirms this segment's volatility is structural, not a one-off, now five quarters running.
WIB (Wholesale and International Business)
Margin improved slightly (53.8% to 55.0%) on flat revenue - the one segment showing genuine stability this quarter after last quarter's sharp margin decline (see Q2's post).
Target Valuation Range
Bottom line: fairly valued to modestly undervalued - roughly Rp2,850-Rp3,850 fair-value range (bear-to-bull, TTM EV/EBITDA-based) against a Rp2,990 actual close, sitting close to base case as the multiple compression this dataset flagged last quarter continues, now with weaker fundamentals partially justifying it.
Telkom's shares closed Q3 2024 at Rp2,990, down 4.5% from Q2's Rp3,130 close (see that post), having touched a fresh low of Rp2,880 in July - below even Q2's Rp2,900 trough. Over the trailing 2 years (September 2022 through September 2024), the stock moved from Rp4,460 to Rp2,990, a 33.0% decline, the steepest trailing-2-year drop in this dataset's TLKM coverage so far, and unlike Q2's post, this quarter's genuinely softer revenue and profit numbers offer a more concrete (if still partial) explanation.
| Market cap → enterprise value | Q3 2024 (period-end) |
|---|---|
| Share price (period-end) | Rp2,990 |
| Shares outstanding | 99,062,216,600 |
| Market capitalization | ~Rp296,196 billion (~$19.6 billion) |
| Plus: total debt | Rp49,500 billion |
| Less: cash | Rp24,540 billion |
| Enterprise value | ~Rp321,156 billion |
| Peer-multiple sanity check | Q2 2024 | Q3 2024 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| TTM EPS | ~Rp237.84 | ~Rp229.50 | ➖ down slightly |
| P/E | ~13.2x | ~13.0x | ➖ down slightly |
| Book value per share (owners) | ~Rp1,314.0 | ~Rp1,369.7 | ✅ up |
| P/B | ~2.38x | ~2.18x | ✅ down |
| TTM Adjusted EBITDA | ~Rp78,300B | ~Rp76,536B | ⚠️ down |
| EV/EBITDA (TTM) | ~4.4x | ~4.2x | ✅ down |
The multiple compressed further, now sitting below even the ~4.5x used as the bear-case assumption in Q2's post - a genuine, sustained re-rating over three consecutive quarters, not a one-off dip. Applying an adjusted range that reflects this new lower baseline:
| Scenario | Key assumption | Multiple | Implied EV | Implied price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Current (Q3 2024 close) | actual market price, for reference | ~4.2x TTM Adjusted EBITDA | ~Rp321,156 billion | Rp2,990 |
| Bear | Revenue softness in Mobile and Enterprise's volatility persist into Q4, confirming a genuine fundamental slowdown | ~3.8x | ~Rp290,837 billion | ~Rp2,701 |
| Base | The multiple stabilizes near current levels as Q4 clarifies whether this quarter's revenue dip was temporary | ~4.2x | ~Rp321,451 billion | ~Rp2,993 |
| Bull | Q4 shows Mobile's revenue decline reversing and the ERP cost drag fading, prompting a partial re-rating toward this dataset's historical range | ~5.2x | ~Rp397,987 billion | ~Rp3,844 |
The current close sits almost exactly at base case - after two quarters of the stock falling faster than the fundamentals, this quarter's genuinely softer revenue and profit numbers have brought the two closer into alignment, though the multiple itself remains at the low end of this dataset's entire TLKM tracking history.
Perusahaan Perseroan (Persero) PT Telekomunikasi Indonesia Tbk's unaudited consolidated financial statements as of and for the nine-month period ended September 30, 2024 (with discrete third-quarter figures derived by subtracting the already-reported six-month results), reflecting subsequent events through the report's issuance, plus the Company's 9M24 corporate presentation.